InvestMacro

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset is finishing the correctional wave. After forming several reversal patterns, such as Stick Sandwich, not far from the resistance level, XAUUSD may reverse and resume falling. In this case, the downside target may be the support area at 1722.50. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may grow towards 1770.00 first and then resume trading downwards.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after testing the resistance area, NZDUSD has formed several reversal patterns, such as Doji. At the moment, the asset is reversing in the form of a new decline. In this case, the downside target may be the support level at 0.6820. After that, the asset may break it and continue moving downwards. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may grow to reach 0.6963 before resuming its descending tendency.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset is forming another descending wave from the channel’s upside border. By now, GBPUSD has formed several reversal patterns, such as Harami, not far from the resistance area. At the moment, the pair is reversing in the form of a new decline. In this case, the downside target may be at 1.3456. After testing this level, the market may break it and continue falling. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may correct towards 1.3670 before reversing.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, the asset is correcting upwards after completing a strong descending movement. Possibly, the asset may finish the pullback and resume falling towards 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 1.3166 and 1.2830 respectively. The key resistance is the high at 1.4250.

In the H4 chart, after breaking 38.2% fibo, the correctional uptrend has failed to reach 50.0% fibo at 1.3664. The pair may yet try to reach this level but the main scenario implies a further downtrend to break the low at 1.3412.

EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

In the H4 chart, the correction continues. Possibly, the correction may transform into a consolidation range but one shouldn’t exclude a possibility of a further uptrend to reach 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 131.03 and 131.75 respectively. A breakout of the key support at 127.93 will lead to a test of the long-term 50.0% fibo at 127.87.

The H1 chart shows that the decline after divergence on MACD has reached 76.0% fibo. At the moment, the price is forming a new impulse to the upside to reach the high at 130.47, a breakout of which will result in a further uptrend.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.1618
• Prev Close: 1.1597
• % chg. over the last day: -0.18%

Europe’s gas reserves are at their lowest seasonal level in more than a decade. Global gas and coal shortages are pushing energy prices higher, which in turn is negatively impacting businesses and economies in the region. Against the background of such a deficit, prices are likely to continue growing in winter. Energy independence is now the EU’s main goal.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1588, 1.1564, 1.1453
• Resistance levels: 1.1671, 1.1717, 1.1772, 1.1802, 1.1835

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD trend is bearish. However, the MACD indicator has become inactive. It indicates that the sellers have stopped putting pressure. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell deals from the resistance levels near the moving average, as the price has deviated from the middle line. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1717 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.10.06:

• – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3605
• Prev Close: 1.3625
• % chg. over the last day: +0.15%

Gas prices in the UK have risen significantly since early July. But the situation with fuel shortages at gas stations is improving. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the government created reliable supply lines for Christmas.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3532, 1.3457, 1.3360, 1.3282
• Resistance levels: 1.3639, 1.3685, 1.3759, 1.3812, 1.3886

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bearish. But the British currency keeps getting stronger due to oil prices growth. The MACD indicator has become positive, but there are already signs of divergence. Buy trades should be considered only throughout the day and only with short targets from the support levels after the buyer’s initiative. Sell trades can be found at the resistance levels near the moving average line.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3759 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.10.06:

• – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 110.85
• Prev Close: 111.46
• % chg. over the last day: +0.55%

Japanese shares fell against the background of the market disappointment in the new government and threats for global economic growth. Rising commodity prices are increasing fears about global inflation in the region, which is also negatively affecting the Japanese Yen.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 110.99, 110.65, 110.40, 109.95, 109.63, 109.27
• Resistance levels: 111.67, 112.19

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator has become positive, and there are signs of buyer’s initiative. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the support levels near the moving average. Sell positions should be considered only throughout the day from the resistance levels, given there is sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 110.45, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2588
• Prev Close: 1.2579
• % chg. over the last day: -0.07%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so USD/CAD is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. Both the dollar index and oil prices strengthened yesterday. As a result, USD/CAD are trading flat.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2565, 1.2518, 1.2425
• Resistance levels: 1.2611, 1.2729, 1.2774, 1.2891

From the technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. But the MACD indicator is showing the divergence in the direction of buying. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell deals from the resistance levels near the moving average. Buy deals should be considered from the false breakdown zone but with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2774 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.10.06:

• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Orbex

In the long run, GBPUSD seems to be forming a large cycle double zigzag w-x-y.

It is likely that the cycle intervening wave x has come to an end. It consists of primary sub-waves Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ and has the form of a double zigzag.

If this is the case, then we can expect a bullish market move in the upcoming trading weeks within the cycle wave y. Its end is possible well above the maximum of 1.398, which was marked by the primary intervening wave Ⓧ.

Let’s look at an alternative scenario. Here we see that there is a probability of continuing the construction of a cycle wave x. Its final primary wave Ⓨ may be more complex in structure than in the first case.

After a slight rise in the price in the intermediate intervening wave (X), the pair is likely to decline in the intermediate wave (Z) near 1.331. At that level, primary actionary sub-waves Ⓨ and Ⓦ will be equal.

Then the cycle wave y can send the market above the high of 1.391.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

by JustForex

The US stock market closed in the green zone yesterday. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones index added 0.92%, the S&P 500 index increased by 1.05%, and the NASDAQ index jumped by 1.25%. But investors still have plenty to worry about, from supply chain disruptions to skyrocketing prices and anticipation of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Investors are no longer willing to buy back every stock market drop, and high oil prices create additional inflationary concerns.

Jim Cramer, a well-known US TV host and former hedge fund manager, says that he thinks investors may start looking for hard-hit stocks to buy. Goldman Sachs expects a strong 4th quarter with the S&P 500 up 9%.

US President Joe Biden warns of the risk of a US government debt default due to Republican opposition. The US again opposed the Nord Stream 2 pipeline after Russia announced that it had begun to fill it with gas.

European stock indices rose yesterday. German DAX gained 1.05%, British FTSE 100 added 0.94%, French CAC 40 increased by 1.52%, Spanish IBEX 35 and Italian FTSE MIB increased by 1.54% and 1.95%, respectively. Despite the fact that the cost of gas futures in Europe has updated the record, exceeding $1300 per thousand cubic meters, ECB head Christine Lagarde said that the Central Bank should not overreact to problems in energy supply chains and rising energy prices, as monetary policy can not directly affect it. The ECB still believes that the region’s economy will return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year.

Saxo Bank’s chief equity market strategist said the following, “Policies are being implemented globally as if we have a demand shock, but we are currently facing a supply-side shock due to the pandemic, lack of investments in the physical world, and an accelerated decarbonization through electrification and renewable energy.”

Current technology does not allow for increased solar and wind generation because of the instability of such sources. It will lead to supply lagging behind demand and rising inflation, weak real economic growth, and negative rates.

Oil is holding near its highest level since 2014 following OPEC+’s decision to maintain a gradual increase in supply, even as the natural gas crisis boosts demand for crude oil. Companies like Glencore, Gunvor, Trafigura, and Vitol faced margin calls in the gas futures market and had to raise additional funding from banks. Brokers are demanding hundreds of millions of dollars from commodity traders to secure positions that were taken as part of hedging strategies.

Gold prices have stabilized in recent days. But as long as US government bond yields continue to rise because of rising inflation fears, gold and silver prices will be under selling pressure.

The missed payment on the bonds of Chinese real estate developer Evergrande has investors worried again. Another major Chinese developer Fantasia Holdings Group failed to pay its bond debt on time. The company missed the deadline to pay its $205.65 million bond debt due Monday.

Beijing is creating a system designed to ensure that the automated processes of Internet platforms are fair, transparent, and consistent with the ideology of the Communist Party. China’s tech index seeks a new low as the global sell-off continues. The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 2.5% yesterday. The blue-chip CSI 300 Index lost another 3%, extending losses from the September high to 10%.

Australia’s banking regulator is tightening home loan requirements as the rapid credit growth that has caused a jump in home prices poses a risk to financial stability.

New Zealand’s central bank raised interest rates for the first time in seven years in an attempt to curb rising inflation. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%. The RBNZ also plans to remove most of its stimulus measures as the economy recovers.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 4,345.72 +45.26 (+1.05%)

Dow Jones 34,314.67 +311.75 (+0.92%)

DAX 15,194.49 +157.94 (+1.05%)

FTSE 100 7,077.10 +66.09 (+0.94%)

USD Index 94.00 +0.22 (+0.24%)

• – New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 04:00 (GMT+3);
• – New Zealand RBA Rate Statement at 04:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Orbex

NZDUSD has completed the formation of the correction wave x of a cycle degree. It is a double zigzag consisting of primary sub-waves, the last part of which is an intermediate double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y).

A cycle wave y is currently under development, which can take the form of a primary standard zigzag Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ. In the last section of the chart, we can notice the primary impulse wave Ⓐ and the bearish correction Ⓑ in the form of an intermediate triple zigzag.

In the near future, the development of the primary wave Ⓒ is likely in the direction of a maximum of 0.746. It can take the form of a simple 5-wave impulse.

An alternative scenario indicates that the global intervening wave x of a cycle degree could not be complete yet.

In this case, the last part of this wave, which is the primary wave Ⓩ, is still under development. It consists of intermediate sub-waves (W)-(X)-(Y), where wave (X) was formed not so long ago.

In the near future, the decline in the alternative scenario could continue in the minor wave Y. This could complete the intermediate double zigzag near 0.665. At that price level, wave Ⓩ will be at 100% of wave Ⓨ.

Only after the completion of the intervening wave x, the market can begin to move up in the cycle wave y above the level of 0.717 marked by the primary wave Ⓧ.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

By Orbex

USDJPY retreats below resistance

The dollar bounced back against the yen after a weak Tokyo CPI in September.

As the pair rose to the peak from February 2020 (112.20), a bearish RSI divergence revealed weakness in the momentum. A break below 111.20 and a bearish MA cross may have dented optimism.

The US dollar has seen bids at 110.90 when the RSI neared the oversold area. However, the bounce has been capped by 111.50 as trapped buyers were waiting to get out. A new round of sell-off would send the price to the psychological level of 110.00.

USDNOK tests critical support

Rally in oil prices helped lift the Norwegian krone against the greenback.

The pair had met stiff selling pressure in the supply zone around 8.8000. A sharp drop below 8.6500, which has turned into resistance, suggests that sellers have regained control of the action.

A close below 8.5500 (a major support from the daily chart) would invalidate the latest rebound and put the dollar on a bearish trajectory. An oversold RSI may cause a temporary bounce. 8.4500 would be the next stop when momentum traders stake in.

GER 40 hovers over major support

Stock markets still jitter over ongoing supply chain disruptions.

The Dax 40 has been treading water over the psychological level of 15000. A bullish RSI divergence in this important demand zone indicates that selling has become less aggressive.

However, it may be too soon to call for a U-turn. The bulls must take out 15330 before they could convince trend-followers of a turnaround. Then, 15700 would be the next hurdle.

On the downside, a bearish breakout would trigger a wave of stop-losses, sending the index towards 14500.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, EURUSD is forming a steady descending wave towards the long-term 50.0% fibo at 1.1493. Of course, this decline may continue down to 61.8% fibo at 1.1293 but convergence on MACD may hint at a possible reversal. If it happens, the asset may resume moving upwards to update the high at 1.2350.

The H1 chart shows the start of a short-term correction after local convergence on MACD. The first rising wave tried to test 23.6% fibo at 1.1645 but failed and transformed into a new decline towards the low at 1.1563. However, the low hasn’t been broken yet. If the pair rebounds from this level, the asset may extend the correction up to 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 1.1695 and 1.1736 respectively. On the other hand, a breakout of the low will lead to a further downtrend.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY is correcting downwards after breaking the high at 111.66. After finishing the pullback, the asset may continue growing towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 112.78 and 113.47 respectively. The support is the local low at 108.72.

The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the current descending correction after divergence on MACD. The pair has reached 38.2% fibo and may yet continue falling towards 50.0% fibo at 110.59. At the same time, convergence on the indicator may hint at a new rising impulse after the asset finishes the pullback.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.1593
• Prev Close: 1.1619
• % chg. over the last day: +0.22%

ECB spokesman Paolo Gentiloni says that high inflation in EU countries is temporary, as supply chain problems and rising energy prices are pushing prices up. But the ECB expects EU countries to show a positive economic trend in the third quarter.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1564, 1.1453
• Resistance levels: 1.1671, 1.1717, 1.1772, 1.1802, 1.1835

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD trend is bearish. But the MACD indicator has become inactive. It indicates that the sellers have stopped putting pressure. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell deals from the resistance levels near the moving average, as the price has deviated from the middle line. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1717 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.10.05:

• – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde’s Speech at 18:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3552
• Prev Close: 1.3605
• % chg. over the last day: +0.39%

The situation with the delivery of fuel to gas stations is improving, but the UK is still experiencing a serious shortage of truck drivers. New car registrations in the UK fell by 35% year-over-year last month. The automotive industry continues to suffer from a global shortage of semiconductors. But the British currency is strengthening due to rising oil prices, as the GBP directly correlates with BRENT oil prices.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3525, 1.3457, 1.3360, 1.3282
• Resistance levels: 1.3617, 1.3685, 1.3759, 1.3812, 1.3886

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bearish. But the British currency keeps getting stronger due to oil prices growth. The MACD indicator has become positive, but there are already signs of divergence. Buy trades should be considered only throughout the day and only with short targets from the support levels after the buyer’s initiative. Sell trades can be found at the resistance levels near the moving average line.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3759 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.10.05:

• – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 110.86
• Prev Close: 111.91
• % chg. over the last day: +0.04%

Tokyo’s consumer price index is declining. It’s a sign of slowing inflation in Japan’s capital. The newly elected prime minister Fumio Kishida says he will dissolve the lower house of parliament next week in preparation for the October 31 elections as he seeks a new mandate to deal with the coronavirus pandemic, a decline in economics, and security threats from China and North Korea.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 110.65, 110.40, 109.95, 109.63, 109.27
• Resistance levels: 111.62, 112.19

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator became positive, and there are signs of buyer’s initiative. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the support levels near the moving average. Sell positions should be considered only throughout the day from the resistance levels, given there is sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 110.45, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

News feed for 2021.10.05:

• – Japan Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2639
• Prev Close: 1.2587
• % chg. over the last day: -0.41%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so USD/CAD is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. The dollar index slightly decreased yesterday while the oil prices jumped. As a result, the USD/CAD quotes sharply decreased due to the strengthening of the Canadian currency.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2611, 1.2565, 1.2518, 1.2425
• Resistance levels: 1.2729, 1.2774, 1.2891

From the technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Yesterday, the price broke down through the support level but came back above the level at the Asian session, forming a false breakdown zone below. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell deals from the resistance levels near the moving average. Buy deals should be considered from the false breakdown zone but with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2774 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.