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COT Currency Charts: US Dollar Index Speculators boost bullish bets to 103-Week high

By InvestMacro.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 5th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the currency COT data this week is the US Dollar Index positioning. Speculators increased their bullish bets this week by +5,565 contracts which marked the largest one-week gain in three months. The bullish speculator position has now risen for seven straight weeks and for fifteen out of the past sixteen weeks. This bullishness has brought the current bullish standing for US Dollar Index speculators to the highest level in the past 103 weeks, dating back to October 15th of 2019.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-05-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	57,194	83	32,026	81	-38,817	10	6,791	100
EUR	693,591	82	-22,334	28	-8,487	73	30,821	29
GBP	182,338	27	-20,018	60	25,676	45	-5,658	44
JPY	226,379	95	-63,694	29	84,463	79	-20,769	8
CHF	55,970	36	-15,679	43	29,586	64	-13,907	22
CAD	120,168	10	-26,866	33	15,455	61	11,411	64
AUD	188,691	74	-89,979	0	108,693	100	-18,714	10
NZD	35,861	16	8,056	85	-7,886	18	-170	51
MXN	168,119	33	-35,579	0	33,693	100	1,886	51
RUB	52,913	58	20,409	62	-22,491	34	2,082	100
BRL	22,976	20	-2,290	66	1,269	35	1,021	79
Bitcoin	8,886	51	-1,518	61	554	0	964	21

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 32,026 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,461 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.2	3.3	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	71.2	3.1
– Net Position:	32,026	-38,817	6,791
– Gross Longs:	44,715	1,879	8,543
– Gross Shorts:	12,689	40,696	1,752
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.0 to 1	4.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.0	10.1	100.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.1	-21.7	16.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,334 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -23,206 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 872 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	57.2	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	58.4	8.6
– Net Position:	-22,334	-8,487	30,821
– Gross Longs:	196,819	396,534	90,564
– Gross Shorts:	219,153	405,021	59,743
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.1	73.3	28.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	13.8	-3.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -20,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,982 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	58.1	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.4	44.0	17.2
– Net Position:	-20,018	25,676	-5,658
– Gross Longs:	48,137	105,899	25,681
– Gross Shorts:	68,155	80,223	31,339
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.6	44.9	43.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	3.8	-6.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -63,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	77.4	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.1	40.1	17.3
– Net Position:	-63,694	84,463	-20,769
– Gross Longs:	31,569	175,160	18,406
– Gross Shorts:	95,263	90,697	39,175
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.7	79.0	7.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	1.2	-11.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -15,679 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,092 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,587 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.1	79.7	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	26.9	41.0
– Net Position:	-15,679	29,586	-13,907
– Gross Longs:	2,274	44,633	9,051
– Gross Shorts:	17,953	15,047	22,958
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.6	64.2	22.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.6	29.7	-19.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -26,866 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	54.4	28.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.8	41.5	19.3
– Net Position:	-26,866	15,455	11,411
– Gross Longs:	18,580	65,338	34,639
– Gross Shorts:	45,446	49,883	23,228
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	61.3	64.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.3	18.9	3.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -89,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,383 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	80.3	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.9	22.7	17.6
– Net Position:	-89,979	108,693	-18,714
– Gross Longs:	17,471	151,501	14,474
– Gross Shorts:	107,450	42,808	33,188
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	10.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.4	23.3	5.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.9	37.9	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	59.9	10.8
– Net Position:	8,056	-7,886	-170
– Gross Longs:	17,887	13,588	3,702
– Gross Shorts:	9,831	21,474	3,872
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.8	18.2	51.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.1	-15.0	14.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of -35,579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,984 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,595 net contracts.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.8	49.9	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.0	29.9	2.2
– Net Position:	-35,579	33,693	1,886
– Gross Longs:	77,074	83,926	5,540
– Gross Shorts:	112,653	50,233	3,654
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	51.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	5.8	-1.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,290 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,086 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.3	42.0	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.2	36.5	8.9
– Net Position:	-2,290	1,269	1,021
– Gross Longs:	10,170	9,646	3,064
– Gross Shorts:	12,460	8,377	2,043
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.6	35.1	79.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.9	20.9	-0.5

Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,409 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.0	39.0	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	81.5	1.9
– Net Position:	20,409	-22,491	2,082
– Gross Longs:	29,107	20,634	3,092
– Gross Shorts:	8,698	43,125	1,010
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.7	34.0	100.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.6	-19.5	31.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,518 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -635 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -883 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.8	6.7	19.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.9	0.5	8.9
– Net Position:	-1,518	554	964
– Gross Longs:	5,581	599	1,758
– Gross Shorts:	7,099	45	794
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	13.3 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.2	92.2	21.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	61.4	-5.9

Article By InvestMacro.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

08 Oct

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 08.10.2021 (GBPUSD, NZDCHF, XAUUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is trading at 1.3594; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.3550 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.3805. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.3480. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.3390.

NZDCHF, “New Zealand Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

NZDCHF is trading at 0.6438; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6445 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6310. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6495. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6585.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD is trading at 1759.00; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1750.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1815.00. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1730.00. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1695.00. To confirm further growth, the asset must break the upside border of the Triangle pattern and fix above 1770.00.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Oct

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 08.10.2021 (AUDUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after attempting to fall and reach the low at 0.7106, the asset had to start another growth due to convergence on MACD, which may be considered as a new rising wave within the correctional phase to reach 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 0.7499 and 0.7591 respectively.

The H1 chart of AUDUSD shows that the current growth has already reached 50.0% fibo and may later continue towards 61.8% fibo at 0.7360. At the same time, there is divergence on MACD to indicate a possible pullback soon. The local support is the low at 0.7170.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

In the H4 chart, after failing to grow and break the high at 1.2949, USDCAD is forming a new descending wave within the mid-term correctional phase, which is heading to break the low at 1.2493 and then reach 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 1.2478 and 1.2366 respectively.

As we can see in the H1 chart, the descending tendency is heading towards the low at 1.2493. at the same time, there is convergence on MACD, which may indicate a possible pullback to the upside after the price tests the low.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Oct

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.10.08

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1555
Prev Close: 1.1553
% chg. over the last day: -0.02%

The European Central Bank has left monetary policy unchanged. The ECB will consider policy alternatives in December. Germany’s industrial production experienced its highest drop in August since last April due to supply chain problems, which constrained the growth of Europe’s largest economy and hit the automotive sector.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1502, 1.1453
Resistance levels: 1.1583, 1.1671, 1.1717, 1.1772, 1.1802, 1.1835

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD trend is bearish. But the MACD indicator shows divergence on the higher timeframes. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell deals from the resistance levels near the moving average, as the price has deviated from the middle line. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1717 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.10.08:

– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3582
Prev Close: 1.3612
% chg. over the last day: +0.22%

Despite the decline in natural gas prices, gas prices in the UK are still seven times higher than usual. It costs the industry huge bills and pushes domestic consumers to the brink of ruin. The National Grid is warning of electricity supply restrictions this winter.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3532, 1.3457, 1.3360, 1.3282
Resistance levels: 1.3639, 1.3685, 1.3759, 1.3812, 1.3886

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bearish. The British currency looks more confident than the euro due to a direct correlation with oil prices. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Buy trades should be considered only throughout the day and only with short targets from the support levels after the buyer’s initiative. Sell trades can be found at the resistance levels near the moving average line.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3759 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.10.08:

– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 111.38
Prev Close: 111.61
% chg. over the last day: +0.21%

Japan’s new Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, will outline his political program today. According to preliminary data, the main points of the program will be the increase of the capital gains tax from 20% to 25%, as well as the need to inject more than 30 trillion yen ($269 billion) of budget expenses to combat the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 111.53, 110.99, 110.65, 110.40, 109.95, 109.63, 109.27
Resistance levels: 112.19

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator has become positive again, but there are the first signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the support levels near the moving average. Sell positions should be considered only throughout the day from the resistance levels, given there is sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 110.45, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

News feed for 2021.10.08:

– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2588
Prev Close: 1.2551
% chg. over the last day: -0.29%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so USD/CAD is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. The dollar index hardly changed yesterday, while oil prices increased. As a result, the USD/CAD quotes continued to decline. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem says that Canada’s high inflation rate is largely due to the circumstances of the Covid-19 pandemic, and Canada’s annual inflation rate is likely to remain above the central bank’s target range of 1% to 3% for the rest of this year.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2518, 1.2425
Resistance levels: 1.2565, 1.2611, 1.2729, 1.2774, 1.2891

From the technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. But the MACD indicator is showing the divergence on several timeframes. There is also a liquidity narrowing, which is a common signal of the start of a sharp impulse. The report on the labor market in the US and Canada might be a trigger for the beginning of this impulsive move. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell deals from the resistance levels near the moving average. Buy deals should be considered if the price returns above the 1.2565 level, given there is a buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2774 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.10.08:

– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Oct

Sustainable inflation could trigger new recessions in most economies

by JustForex

The US stock market closed in the green for the third trading session in a row. At the close of the trading session, the Dow Jones increased by 0.98%, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.83%, and the NASDAQ index added 1.05%. Representatives of the Republican and Democratic parties in the Senate reached an agreement to increase the national debt ceiling by $480 billion. It will allow the Treasury Department to continue funding the government spending through early December. The initial jobless claims in the US declined last week. The number of new applications for the week was 326,000 (forecast 348,000). It is the lowest quarterly figure since 1997. Last week it was at 350,000. The labor market is improving, which leaves no doubt that the Fed will start cutting the QE program in early November. Investors’ attention is now focused on today’s Nonfarm payrolls.

European stock indices also showed strong gains yesterday. The British FTSE 100 increased by 1.17%, German DAX added 1.85%, French CAC 40 added 1.65%, Spanish IBEX 35 and Italian FTSE MIB jumped by 2.14% and 1.51%, respectively. The Bank of England’s chief economist says there are growing concerns about inflation in the United Kingdom, which will last longer. Since concerns about inflation persist, Barclays expects a period of higher volatility and lower yields for European stock markets. However, an ECB spokesman said yesterday that the short-term rise in inflation is mainly due to temporary causes that will disappear in the long term and will not require policy tightening.

Following Denmark and Sweden, Finland is suspending the use of the Moderna vaccine against COVID-19 for young people.

The Bank of Israel will complete an 85 billion shekel ($26.3 billion) bond-buying program in the coming months. The interest rate remained unchanged at 0.1%.

Oil increased to its highest level since 2014 this week due to the energy crisis in Europe. Asia raised the prospect of higher demand for crude and refined products ahead of winter. At the same time, OPEC+ said it would restore only a relatively modest amount of supply to the market in November. Goldman Sachs says the likely release of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which could be as much as 60 million barrels, poses a downside risk of just $3 per barrel compared to the year-end Brent crude price forecast of $90 per barrel.

Russia proposed to soften the crisis with natural gas. After this statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin, natural gas prices began to decline steadily.

Chinese markets have returned to a more positive mood after a long holiday due to improved activity in the service sector. On the other hand, the total electricity consumption in China may decline 10-15% in November and December, potentially leading to a 30% slowdown in activity in sectors such as metals, chemicals, and cement production. Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are likely to hold working talks in a virtual format before the end of this year.

Taiwan’s president says that Taiwan is not seeking a military conflict with China but will defend itself if necessary.

India’s central bank left the interest rate unchanged and promised enough liquidity to support economic recovery.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 4,399.76 +36.21 (+0.83%)

Dow Jones 34,754.94 +337.95 (+0.98%)

DAX 15,250.86 +277.53 (+1.85%)

FTSE 100 7,078.04 +82.17 (+1.17%)

USD Index 94.20 -0.06 (-0.07%)

Important events for today:

– Australia RBA Financial Stability Review at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– ECB President Cristine Lagarde’s Speech at 15:05 (GMT+3);
– Treasury Sec Janet Yellen’s Speech at 15:05 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Oct

Risk-on mood returns ahead of NFP

By Lukman Otunuga Senior Research Analyst, ForexTime

Risk appetite flickered to life on Thursday as progress on debt ceiling talks in the United States and Russia’s offer to stabilise energy markets lifted global sentiment.

European stocks rebounded amid the improving market mood with US stock futures rising, indicating a positive open for Wall Street this afternoon. In the FX space, the dollar index slightly weakened while the euro lingered near a 14-month low. Looking at the commodities space, oil extended losses thanks to Russia’s offer to rescue Europe from its energy crisis while gold struggled for direction.

This has been another volatile week for markets with the sentiment pendulum swinging back and forth. The main risk event and potential market shaker will of course be the US jobs report on Friday which will influence the Federal Reserve’s timeline for tapering. Given how markets remain highly sensitive to a reduction in bond buying and rate hike expectations, this could translate into explosive levels of volatility.

All eyes on the US jobs report

The question on the mind of many investors is whether the pending NFP report will pass the Federal Reserve’s taper test.

It is worth keeping in mind that Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently stated that additional job gains in September will give policymakers the green light to start tapering in November. With 450k jobs forecast to be created in September, this is quite a jump from the disappointing 243k of job gains witnessed in August. Unemployment is expected to fall to 5.1% compared to the 5.2% in the previous month while average hourly earnings are set to slip to 0.4% versus the 0.6% prior.

A solid report will most likely cement expectations over the Fed tapering in November. Such a development should inject dollar bulls with a renewed dose of confidence, resulting in the DXY potentially hitting fresh 2021 highs. Alternatively, a disappointing print is seen as cooling hawkish expectations and weakening the dollar.

Gold waits on NFP

Gold has essentially been a battleground for bulls and bears this week with conflicting themes pulling and pushing the metal in a relatively narrow range. The choppy price action illustrates the growing struggle for power ahead of the key jobs data. Given how gold remains quite sensitive to taper expectations, real yields and dollar direction, the report’s outcome should set the tone for the precious metal in October.

Looking at the technical picture, prices are trading around the sticky $1750/$1760 region as of writing. A weekly close below this week’s low at $1745 could signal a decline towards $1721. Should the $1750 area prove to be reliable support, bulls may be able to advance towards the 100-day simple moving average at $1780.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

07 Oct

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 07.10.2021

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.1585 to the downside and completing the descending wave at 1.1530, EURUSD has finished the ascending impulse towards 1.1555 along with the correction to reach 1.1540; right now, it is growing to break 1.1555. Later, the market may start another growth to reach 1.1583 and then form a new descending structure to return to 1.1555.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has broken 1.3611 to the downside. Possibly, today the pair may continue trading downwards to reach 1.3535 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 1.3660.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is still consolidating around 72.48. Today, the pair may break this range to the downside and reach 72.00. After that, the instrument may grow to test 72.50 from below and then resume trading downwards with the target at 71.70.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has completed the ascending structure at 111.78; right now, it is falling to reach 111.18 and may later form a new consolidation range there. After that, the instrument may break the range to the downside and resume falling with the target at 110.80.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After finishing the correctional structure at 0.9266, USDCHF is expected to start another growth to beak 0.9310 and then continue trading upwards with the target at 0.9355.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has completed the correctional wave at 0.7235; right now, it is growing to reach 0.7300. Later, the market may start another decline towards 0.7275 and then resume moving upwards with the target at 0.7323.

BRENT

Brent is correcting towards 80.70. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards to break 84.00 and then continue growing with the target at 90.00.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has finished the correctional structure at 1746.00. Today, the metal may form one more ascending structure to break 1769.00 and then continue trading upwards with the target at 1790.18.

S&P 500

The S&P index is consolidating around 4330.0. Possibly, today the asset may expand the range up to 4400.5 and then fall to break 4300.94. Later, the market may continue trading downwards with the target at 4234.4.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

07 Oct

Murrey Math Lines 07.10.2021 (USDCHF, GOLD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after breaking 8/8, USDCHF is no longer trading inside the “overbought area”. In this case, the price is expected to continue falling to reach the support at 7/8. However, this scenario may be cancelled if the price breaks 8/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may continue growing towards the resistance at +1/8.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue trading downwards.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after leaving the “oversold area”, XAUUSD is trading at 1/8. In this case, the price is expected to break this level and then continue moving upwards to reach the resistance at 2/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the support at 0/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may get back inside the “oversold area” and fall towards -1/8.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue its growth towards 2/8 from the H4 chart.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

07 Oct

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.10.07

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1598
Prev Close: 1.1556
% chg. over the last day: -0.36%

The data from ADP showed that US private sector employment increased by 568,000 jobs beating analysts’ expectations. Eurozone retail sales increased by 0.3% in August compared to a 2.6% decline in July. Economists forecast an increase of 0.8% in August. German factory orders fell sharply by 7.7% month-over-month.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1502, 1.1453
Resistance levels: 1.1583, 1.1671, 1.1717, 1.1772, 1.1802, 1.1835

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD trend is bearish. Yesterday, the price went down sharply again. The MACD indicator shows divergence on the higher timeframes. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell deals from the resistance levels near the moving average, as the price has deviated from the middle line. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1717 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.10.07:

– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Publication of the Eurozone ECB Account of Monetary Policy Meeting at 14:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3627
Prev Close: 1.3582
% chg. over the last day: -0.33%

Inflation expectations in the UK have reached a 13-year high. The 10-year breakeven rate reached 4%, which is twice the target of the Bank of England. The increase came on the back of a record rise in UK gas prices this week. The growth of the construction sector also slowed down in September.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3532, 1.3457, 1.3360, 1.3282
Resistance levels: 1.3639, 1.3685, 1.3759, 1.3812, 1.3886

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bearish. The British currency looks more confident than the euro, due to a direct correlation with oil prices. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Buy trades should be considered only throughout the day and only with short targets from the support levels after the buyer’s initiative. Sell trades can be found at the resistance levels near the moving average line.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3759 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 111.46
Prev Close: 111.41
% chg. over the last day: -0.04%

The Japanese yen is highly correlated with the dollar index. The dollar index is growing fundamentally, which contributes to the growth of USD/JPY quotes.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 110.99, 110.65, 110.40, 109.95, 109.63, 109.27
Resistance levels: 111.67, 112.19

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, the price begins trading flat. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the support levels near the moving average. Sell positions should be considered only throughout the day from the resistance levels, given there is sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 110.45, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2576
Prev Close: 1.2590
% chg. over the last day: +0.11%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so USD/CAD is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. The dollar index was slightly stronger yesterday, while oil prices decreased. As a result, the USD/CAD quotes have slightly increased, but the price is still trading in a wide flat.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2565, 1.2518, 1.2425
Resistance levels: 1.2611, 1.2729, 1.2774, 1.2891

From the technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. But the MACD indicator is showing the divergence in the direction of buying. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell deals from the resistance levels near the moving average. Buy deals should be considered from the false breakdown zone but with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2774 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.10.07:

– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Gov Tiff Macklem’s Speech at 19:00 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

07 Oct

Mid-week Technical Outlook: Dollar Dominates G10 Space

By Lukman Otunuga Senior Research Analyst, ForexTime

The mighty dollar appreciated against G10 currencies today as soaring energy prices fanned concerns about inflation and rate hikes.

Bulls were certainly in the driving seat, with the Dollar Index (DXY) jumping towards the 1-year high touched last week. Given how the DXY remains in an uptrend ahead of the US jobs report on Friday, the path of least resistance points north.

Over the past few days, we have discussed the fundamentals behind the dollar’s appreciation. Our focus this evening will be on the technicals using multiple time frame analysis.

Dollar Index approaches a psychological level

On the monthly timeframe, bulls seem to be gaining momentum with prices approaching the psychological 95.00 level. A solid monthly close above this point may signal further upside with the next major point of interest at 100.00. The last time the DXY traded at such levels was back in May 2020.

Weekly signals further upside

The subtitle says it all. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while the MACD trades to the upside. Bulls may propel the DXY towards 94.79 with 95.40 acting as the first point of interest. A strong weekly close above 95.40 could signal an incline towards 97.76 and potentially higher. Alternatively, a decline back below 93.44 should inspire bears to challenge 92.00.

Dollar eyes 94.52 on daily

After staging a rebound yesterday, dollar bulls remain on a mission to conquer the 94.52 level. A solid daily close above this point could open the doors towards 95.00. Should 94.52 prove to be reliable resistance, a decline towards 93.72 could be expected, followed by a deeper decline towards 93.19.

Breakout forming on H4 timeframe?

There could be a breakout opportunity on the H4 timeframe. Minor support can be found at 94.23, resistance is at 94.52 while the higher low is at 93.70. A solid breakdown below 94.25 could inspire a selloff towards 93.70. Should 94.25 prove to be reliable support, a move towards 94.52 looks possible with 95.00 acting as an important level of interest.

Given how the pending US jobs data may determine the Federal Reserve’s tapering schedule, things could turn explosively volatile for the dollar, whatever the outcome. Will Friday’s NFP strengthen the dollar’s grip in the FX space or threaten its reign? Time will tell.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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