The yen plunges as low Japanese bond rates reflect the divergence in monetary policies. A close above the pre-pandemic peak around 112.10 has triggered a runaway rally.
A bullish MA cross indicates an acceleration to the upside. Strong momentum and a lack of resistance are lifting the greenback towards November 2018’s high at 113.70.
The RSI’s repeated overbought situation may lead to profit-taking, causing a limited pullback. Patient buyers may be waiting to stake in near the round number of 112.00.
NZDUSD struggles to rise
The New Zealand dollar bounces back as risk appetite makes a timid return after a mixed NFP.
The pair is in a narrow consolidation range between 0.6880 and the psychological level of 0.7000. However, the short-term mood remains downbeat after the kiwi almost gave up all its gains from late August.
The RSI’s double-dip in the oversold area has attracted some buying interest. But the bulls will need to lift the major resistance before they could jump-start a reversal. Failing that, the kiwi would be testing the daily support at 0.6810.
US 30 hits resistance
The Dow Jones climbs back as investors rotate into blue-chip values amid economic recovery.
Multiple tests of the demand zone around 33500 reveal the bulls’ commitment to keeping the index afloat. A close above 34660, the last leg of the previous sell-off, is an encouraging sign.
A push above 35050 would open the door to 35000 near the all-time high. An overbought RSI has temporarily held the bullish fever back.
34200 is the immediate support for buyers to build momentum. Further down, 33850 is their second line of defense.
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As we can see in the H4 chart, EURUSD is slowing the descending tendency down a little bit on its way to the long-term 50.0% fibo at 1.1493. At the same time, there is convergence on MACD, which may hint at a possible pullback or even reversal. If the asset reaches the target but rebounds from it, the pair may resume moving upwards to update the high at 1.2350.
The H1 chart shows the potential correctional targets after local convergence on MACD – 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% fibo at 1.1619, 1.1674, and 1.1719 respectively. On the other hand, a breakout of the low at 1.1529 will lead to a further downtrend.
USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”
As we can see in the H4 chart, after breaking the high at 111.66, USDJPY has entered the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 112.78 and 113.47 respectively. The current technical picture implies a possible pullback soon towards 111.66. The support is still the local low at 108.72.
The H1 chart shows the targets of the above-mentioned pullback – 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% fibo at 112.45, 111.82, and 111.30 respectively. The key resistance here is the high at 113.49.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming several reversal patterns, including Hammer, close to the support level, USDCAD may reverse in the form of a new correctional impulse. In this case, the correctional target may be the resistance area at 1.2520. However, an alternative scenario implies that the asset may continue falling to reach 1.2400 without reversing and correcting.
AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”
As we can see in the H4 chart, AUDUSD has formed several reversal patterns, such as Harami, while testing the resistance level. At the moment, the asset may reverse and start a new pullback. In this case, the correctional target may be at 0.7315. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may continue growing towards 0.7400 without any corrections.
USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
As we can see in the H4 chart, after testing the support area, the pair has formed several reversal patterns, for example, Hammer. At the moment, USDCHF is reversing and may later start a new growth towards the resistance level. In this case, the upside target may be at 0.9360. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may correct to reach 0.9245 first and then resume its ascending tendency.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
The European Commission will consider joint gas purchases for EU countries as a response to the energy price hike. European companies are switching to the tight coal market due to soaring gas prices, but coal prices are also breaking records. Europe’s energy crisis could accelerate inflation in the region.
From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD trend is bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive. The price is trading in a corridor. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell deals from the resistance levels near the moving average. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1671 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.
News feed for 2021.10.12:
– Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Clarida’s Speech at 18:15 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bostic’s Speech at 19:30 (GMT+3).
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.3609
Prev Close: 1.3594
% chg. over the last day: -0.11%
The UK considers helping industries hit by high energy prices. Global bank analysts believe that the Bank of England will raise interest rates by 15 basis points as early as this December.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.3584, 1.3532, 1.3457, 1.3360, 1.3282
On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bearish. However, the British currency looks more confident than the euro due to its direct correlation with oil prices. The MACD indicator has turned negative. The price broke down the triangle pattern. Buy trades should be considered only within the day and after the initiative price returns to the triangle. It is best to look for sell trades from the nearest resistance levels.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3759 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario is likely to resume.
News feed for 2021.10.12:
– UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 112.14
Prev Close: 113.32
% chg. over the last day: +1.05%
The producer price index, which reflects the inflation rate for corporate goods or business-to-business inflation, reached 6.3% (previous value 5.8%), the highest level since August 2008.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 112.19, 111.53, 110.99, 110.65, 109.95, 109.63
Resistance levels: 113.35
The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The Japanese yen is rapidly declining against the US dollar; the last time such a price was in 2019. The MACD indicator is positive. There are signs of overbuying, but no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the support levels near the moving average, since the price has deviated greatly from the average line. Sell positions should be considered only throughout the day from the resistance levels, given there is sellers’ initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 110.99, the uptrend is likely to be broken.
News feed for 2021.10.12:
– Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3).
The USD/CAD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.2475
Prev Close: 1.2479
% chg. over the last day: +0.03%
The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so USD/CAD is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. The dollar index declined slightly yesterday, while oil prices remained at the same level. As a result, the USD/CAD currency pair is trading flat.
From the technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. Liquidity compression occurred in the direction of sales last week. The downtrend has accelerated. But now the price is trading flat. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but there are signs of divergence on higher timeframes. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell deals from the resistance levels near the moving average, as the price has strongly deviated from the average values. Buy trades should be considered only on lower timeframes from the support levels, if there is the buyer’s initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2628 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
If last Friday’s dismal US jobs report failed to derail dollar bulls…then what could?
King dollar kicked off the new week on a firm note, appreciating against most G10 currencies as investors remained hopeful over the Federal Reserve tapering in November.
Rising Treasury yields lifted the greenback across the board with the Dollar Index (DXY) eyeing fresh 2021 highs and the dollar rising to its highest level in nearly three years against the yen.
The 10-year benchmark Treasury yield jumped to its highest level since June amid bets that rising inflation will force the Federal Reserve to tighten sooner than expected. Given how higher Treasury yields make the dollar more attractive to investors, this could translate to more gains in the short to medium term.
Is Inflation the dollar’s frenemy?
With investors on edge over whether rising energy prices could result in higher inflation, all eyes will be on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September.
Markets are expecting a month-on-month print of 0.3% while the year-on-year figure is forecast to be 5.3% – which is well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. King dollar could receive a jolt of inspiration if the pending U.S consumer price data shows a rise in inflation and bolsters expectations over an earlier than expected rate hike next year. According to the Fed fund futures, as of writing there is a 95.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in November 2022, with the Fed rate hike fully priced in by the end of next year.
On the flip side, rising inflationary pressures could erode the dollar’s purchasing power – leading to increases in the prices of goods and services over time. Meaning, the value of money one has today is worth less tomorrow.
Key US economic data and Fed minutes in focus
It’s not only the heavily anticipated inflation report that could move the dollar.
Key data ranging from the US weekly initial jobless claims, retail sales for September, and the latest consumer sentiment figures could provide insight into the health of the US economy. The Fed’s argument to for tapering could strength if these reports exceed market expectations.
In regards to the minutes from September’s policy meeting, they are expected to offer insight on the decision to signal tapering. If the minutes strike a hawkish tone and reinforce expectations over the Fed making a move in November, this is likely to boost the dollar.
Dollar Index lingers below 2021 high
Dollar bulls remain on a mission to conquer the 2021 high at 94.52.
A solid daily close above this point could open the doors towards 95.00. Should 94.52 prove to be reliable resistance, a decline towards 93.72 could be expected, followed by a deeper decline towards 93.19.
Zooming into the H4 timeframe, the DXY remains in a bullish channel with a breakout opportunity in the making. Lagging indicators in the form of the MACD and Simple Moving Averages signal further upside. A strong move above 94.52 could signal an incline towards 94.79 and 95.00. Alternatively, a decline back below 94.00 could open a path towards 93.70.
Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
AUDUSD is trading at 0.7331; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.7295 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.7465. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the “neckline” of the Head & Shoulders reversal pattern. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.7205. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.7110.
NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”
NZDUSD is trading at 0.6936; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6940 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6765. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the upside border of the Triangle pattern. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.7020. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7125. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the pattern’s downside border and fix below 0.6845.
USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
USDCHF is trading at 0.9269; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.9290 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.9145. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the right “Shoulder” level of a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.9315. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.9405. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the pattern’s “neckline” and fix below 0.9210.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
After finishing the ascending structure at 1.1580 along with the correction towards 1.1564, EURUSD is growing to reach 1.1588. After that, the instrument may fall to return to 1.1564 and then start another growth with the target at 1.1600.
GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
GBPUSD has broken 1.3591 to the upside. Possibly, the pair may continue trading upwards to reach 1.3666 and then form a new descending structure to break 1.3591. Later, the market may continue trading downwards with the target at 1.3515.
USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”
After forming a new consolidation range above 71.77 and breaking to the downside, USDRUB is expected to continue falling towards 71.44. Later, the market may correct to reach 72.00 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 71.15.
USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”
After forming a new consolidation range above 112.18 and breaking to the upside, USDJPY is trading upwards to reach 112.85. After that, the instrument may start a new decline with the target at 112.00.
USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
USDCHF is still consolidating around 0.9282. Possibly, the pair may resume trading upwards with the target at 0.9304 and then form a new descending structure to return to 0.9282.
AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”
AUDUSD continues forming the ascending structure towards 0.7343 and may later correct to reach 0.7315. After that, the instrument may start another growth towards 0.7347 and then resume moving downwards with the target at 0.7286.
BRENT
Brent is forming one more ascending structure towards 84.00. Later, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 83.60 and then start another growth with the short-term target at 85.00.
XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
After finishing the ascending structure at 1781.12 along with the correction towards 1755.55, Gold is consolidating around the latter level. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume falling towards 1746.00 or even reach 1735.00. if to the upside – start another growth to break 1766.76 and then continue trading upwards with the target at 1790.00.
S&P 500
The S&P index is falling towards 4354.5. After that the instrument may form one more ascending structure to reach 4391.5 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 4300.0.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Europe may face gas shortages this winter if cold weather exhausts reserves to zero, making the region completely dependent on additional flows from Russia. In turn, some European politicians blame Russia for the low volume of gas stored in the region, which has led to record increases in gas and electricity prices.
From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD trend is bearish. The MACD has become positive. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell deals from the resistance levels near the moving average, as the price has deviated from the middle line. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1671 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.
There is no news feed for today.
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.3606
Prev Close: 1.3611
% chg. over the last day: +0.04%
In addition to problems with truck drivers, Britain also faces a pilot shortage, which can prevent the resumption of the travel industry after hundreds of airline crew retired or changed careers during the pandemic. Britain’s business secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng, says that inflation is a concern, but the country’s central bank will do its best to keep it at a moderate level.
On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bearish. But the British currency looks more confident than the euro due to a direct correlation with oil prices. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone but with signs of divergence. There are also signs of narrowing liquidity in the form of a triangle pattern. Buy trades should be considered only within the day and only after the buyer’s initiative upward from the triangle. It is best to look for sell trades after the price breaks down the triangle.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3759 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.
There is no news feed for today.
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 111.61
Prev Close: 112.21
% chg. over the last day: +0.53%
Japan’s new Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, says he has no plans to change capital gains and dividend taxes, as he intends to take other steps to distribute wealth better, such as raising healthcare workers’ salaries. The Japanese yen was declining all week as investors were concerned that the new prime minister may go ahead with a capital gains tax hike and move away from the investor-friendly economic policies conducted by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe from 2013 to 2020.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 112.19, 111.53, 110.99, 110.65, 109.95, 109.63
Resistance levels: 113.35
The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The Japanese yen is rapidly declining against the US dollar; the last time such a price was in April 2019. The MACD indicator is positive again, and there are signs of overbuying but no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the support levels near the moving average, as the price has deviated strongly from the average line. Sell positions should be considered only throughout the day from the resistance levels, given there is sellers’ initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 110.99, the uptrend is likely to be broken.
There is no news feed for today.
The USD/CAD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.2546
Prev Close: 1.2470
% chg. over the last day: -0.61%
The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so USD/CAD is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. The dollar index declined on Friday. Oil prices hit a new price record of $80 a barrel for the first time since 2014. Canada’s unemployment rate decreased from 7.1% to 6.9%, and the number of jobs increased by 157.1k (expected 59.2k). As a result, USD/CAD quotes continued to decline due to the strengthening of the Canadian currency.
From the technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. Liquidity compression occurred in the direction of sales. The downtrend has accelerated. But the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone, and there are signs of divergence on higher timeframes. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell deals from the resistance levels near the moving average, as the price has strongly deviated from the average values. Buy trades should be considered only on lower timeframes from the resistance levels, given there is a buyers’ initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2628 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
The pair has struggled to bounce back over the past few weeks. The break below 1.2500, a major demand zone on the daily chart, is the straw that broke the camel’s back. 1.2430 is the next support. And its breach could trigger an extended sell-off towards July’s low at 1.2300.
As buyers bail out, high volatility has pushed the RSI into the oversold territory. A bounce is likely to be capped by 1.2600, and it could be an opportunity to sell into strength.
XAUUSD attempts bullish reversal
Gold surges as a slowdown in the US job market weighs on the US dollar.
A bullish candle above the first resistance on the daily chart (1775) has forced the bears to cover their positions, exacerbating the momentum in the process. Now that the selling pressure is out of the way, the bulls may consolidate their gains and build strength for a reversal.
The psychological level of 1800 would be the next target. However, an overbought RSI has caused a temporary pullback towards the demand area between 1740 and 1755.
The index has bounced off last May’s lows around 14820. A depressed RSI in this major demand area has attracted solid buying interest. A close above 15200 may have prompted short-term sellers to cover.
The bulls will have the challenging task of clearing several resistance levels, the first being 15470 on the 30-day moving average. A pullback may test the psychological level of 15000. Further down, 14820 is a critical floor to keep the uptrend intact in the medium term.
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Last week the US dollar fluctuated around the last 12-month highs, looking for news and a new impetus to move further. Risk appetite remains high in financial markets with equity indices rising, commodities becoming more expensive and bond yields also rising, an environment that has historically been conducive to a depreciation of the US dollar, but in recent months the world’s reserve currency has resisted these patterns and has appreciated.
USD
In the US, economic data were scarce but showed a continued strengthening of the economy. The labour market indicators were the most notable: 194 thousand new jobs were created in the country, falling short of market expectations of 500 thousand, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.8%, the lowest since the spring of 2017. Annual sales of new vehicles retreated to 9.66 million, a relatively low level as historically strong economies hover around the 16-18 million mark, but partly due to a shortage of components that is limiting production volumes. The number of new jobless claims eventually returned to a downward trend, falling from 0.362 million to 0.326 million over the week.
The global spread of the virus continued to show a consistent slowdown and the weekly average of new cases fell from 434 to 408 thousand per day. In North America, the drop in cases was -19%, in Asia -14% and in South America -8%, but in Europe, the increase continued and reached 11% per week. In the USA, the data showed an improvement and the average dropped from 98 to 87 thousand per day. The number of vaccines administered increased from 395 million to 402 million with a change of 7 million. Overall in the US, the number of people vaccinated with at least one dose rose from 64.7% to 65.3% of the population, an increase of 0.6% per week. In Lithuania, the number of people vaccinated with at least one dose rose from 62.7% to 63.2%, a difference of 0.5%.
EUR
The main currency pair EUR/USD depreciated on Wednesday to 1.153, the lowest level since July 2020, but recovered some of the losses to end the week at 1.157. Among the economic data on the Old Continent was the services purchasing managers’ index, which declined from 59.0 to 56.4 points, showing a moderate slowdown, but still remaining in positive territory. The European producer price index showed a 13.4% annual increase, up from 12.4% the previous month, suggesting that upward pressure on inflation persists. Retail sales in Europe in August were unchanged from the same period a year earlier. The EUR/USD pair ended the week down -0.2%.
JPY
The most important Asian pair USD/JPY showed positive sentiment and appreciated to the 112.2 level and the highest point since February 2020 and April 2019. Economic data was scarce, including household spending falling -3.0% year-over-year. USD/JPY ended the week trading higher by 1.0%.
GBP
The British pound-US dollar pair moved in line with the global reserve currency trend. No important economic data were released. GBP/USD ended the week up 0.5%.
Economic Events
This week will start quietly and no important data is scheduled for Monday. On Tuesday, the Japanese producer price index, the labour market indicators in the British, German, and European ZEW indices will be expected. On Wednesday, attention will turn to China’s international trade volumes, English and European industrial production data, and US September headline inflation. Also on Wednesday, the minutes of the last US central bank meeting will be published. No major indicators are scheduled on Thursday, while US retail sales data are due on Friday.
According to Admiral Markets market sentiment data, 67% of investors have long positions in EUR/USD (down -14 percentage points compared to last week). In the main Asian pair USD/JPY, 11% of investors have long positions (down -13 percentage points). In GBP/USD, 46% of participants expect a rise (down -10 percentage points). Such market data is interpreted as a contrarian indicator, and therefore a EUR/USD depreciation is expected, while USD/JPY and GBP/USD appreciation is expected. The analysis of positioning data should be combined with fundamental projections and technical analysis.
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