EURUSD is trading at 1.1355; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.1375 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1185. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.1445. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.1535. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the rising channel’s downside border and fix below 1.1245.
USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”
USDJPY is trading at 115.30; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 115.20 and then resume moving upwards to reach 117.05. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 114.45. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 113.65. To confirm further growth, the asset must break the descending channel’s upside border and fix above 115.95.
EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”
EURGBP is trading at 0.8362; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.8375 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.8270. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.8425. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.8515. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the rising channel’s downside border and fix below 0.8330.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
In the H4 chart, after rebounding from the “overbought area”, USDCHF is trading below 7/8. In this case, the price is expected to continue falling to reach the support at 5/8. However, this scenario may be cancelled if the price breaks 8/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and grow towards the resistance at +2/8.
As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue falling.
XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD has reached the “overbought area”. In this case, the price is expected to rebound from 8/8 and move downwards to reach the support at 6/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance at 8/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and resume growing towards the next resistance at +1/8.
In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue trading downwards.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Yesterday, the FOMC minutes showed that officials voted to raise interest rates at the next meeting and are ready to initiate the Fed balance sheet reduction that could begin later this year. In addition, FOMC officials may go for a faster rate hike, but only if the inflation rate does not decline. The report had nothing negative, so the market reacted calmly to the news.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.1322, 1.1283
Resistance levels: 1.1392, 1.1423, 1.1481, 1.1534
From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price has corrected to the moving average. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for sell trades on intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.1392 or 1.1423. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.1322, but only with additional confirmation.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1423 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.
News feed for 2022.02.17:
– US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+2).
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.3534
Prev Close: 1.3577
% chg. over the last day: +0.31%
The UK inflation rate increased by 0.1% to an annualized rate of 5.5%. Inflation growth slowed down, but analysts expected it to be faster. The Bank of England expects inflation to exceed 7% this spring due to higher energy prices and a planned National Insurance rate hike. Analysts expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates again at its next meeting.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.3549, 1.3506, 1.3475, 1.3457
Resistance levels: 1.3594, 1.3639, 1.3662
On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bullish. Unlike the euro, the British pound is more stable, as it has fundamental support. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be looked at from the support level 1.3549. A resistance level of 1.3639 may be considered for opening sell deals, but only with additional confirmation in the form of sellers’ initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3475 support level and consolidates below, the bullish scenario will be broken.
There is no news feed for today.
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 115.58
Prev Close: 115.44
% chg. over the last day: -0.12%
The monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is now aimed at making the Japanese yen cheaper because of the maximum stimulus. At the same time, the Fed plans to tighten its monetary policy aggressively. Such opposite policies of central banks contribute to the growth of USD/JPY quotes. However, it should be noted that the Japanese yen is considered a safe-haven currency in case of panic in the market. This morning, the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe has escalated again, so investors began to buy the Japanese yen as an insurance asset.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 115.21, 115.02, 114.76
Resistance levels: 115.43, 115.85, 116.12, 116.50
The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The USD/JPY quotes are growing, and the price is trading in a corridor with wide volatility. The MACD indicator is negative. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals on the lower time frames from the support level of 115.02, but with additional confirmation. Sell positions can be looked at from the resistance level 115.42 or 115.64, but only with short targets and additional confirmation.
Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below 115.02, the uptrend will likely be broken.
There is no news feed for today.
The USD/CAD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.2719
Prev Close: 1.2690
% chg. over the last day: -0.23%
The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the oil prices and the dollar index. The inflation rate in Canada has exceeded 5% for the first time since 1991. Consumer prices rose from 4.8% to 5.1% in annual terms. Challenges related to the COVID-19 pandemic continue to put pressure on supply chains, and consumer energy prices remain high. The Canadian dollar is now strengthening as the Bank of Canada may respond to a surge in inflation by raising interest rates.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.2696, 1.2664, 1.2600, 1.2506
Resistance levels: 1.2741, 1.2794
From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is in a wide flat with high volatility. It is worth trading only with short targets, as both oil and the dollar index are inclined to grow now. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2696. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2741, but with an additional confirmation in the form of the seller’s initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2664 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
The USDCHF pair shows the actionary wave y of the cycle degree ended and then the cycle intervening wave x emerged.
Judging by the internal structure, the cycle intervening wave x can take the form of a primary triple zigzag Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ. The sub-waves Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ already look finished. Currently, there is a decrease in the price in the final wave Ⓩ. This takes the form of an intermediate double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y).
In the near future, wave Ⓩ could continue to move to the level of 0.904. At that level, wave x will be at 76.4% of wave y.
After the end of wave x, bulls can update the previous high of 0.937, marked by the intervening wave y.
The second option hints at a price increase. According to this view, the formation of the cycle intervening wave x is fully complete. It has the form of a triple zigzag of the primary degree.
After the end of the reactionary intervening wave x, we saw the price rise and the development of the cycle wave z. Perhaps it takes the form of a primary double zigzag Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ.
An intermediate triple zigzag ended within wave Ⓦ and the intervening wave Ⓧ. The final actionary wave Ⓨ can take the form of a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y).
In the near future, prices could rise in the intermediate wave (Y) to the level of 0.952, where cycle waves z and y will be equal.
Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com
The euro’s break above the daily resistance at 1.1480 boosted buyers’ confidence after a sell-off in January. It bounced off 1.1280 at the base of the recent bullish breakout. The support also is right next to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (1.1265) making it an area of congestion.
A close above the intermediate resistance (1.1370) would attract more buying interest. Then an extension above 1.1490 may fuel a rally towards 1.1600.
GBPUSD awaits breakout
The sterling holds well as Britain’s wage growth beats expectations in December. The current rebound came under pressure in the supply zone around 1.3660 which was the origin of a sharp drop in late January.
An overbought RSI led to some profit-taking but the pound has found support above 1.3480. The bears’ failed attempts to push lower indicates strong demand.
A bullish close above 1.3640 would lift offers towards last month’s high at 1.3750. The daily support at 1.3370 is a key floor in keeping the rally intact.
XAUUSD seeks support
Gold drifts lower on signs of de-escalation in Ukraine. A break above last November’s high at 1875 may have put the precious metal back on track.
However, the rally ran out of steam in the short term with the RSI shooting into the overbought territory. The price is taking a breather and buyers may see a pullback as an opportunity to stake in.
A drop below 1852 may wash out weak hands and deepen the correction towards 1830. 1880 is now a fresh resistance and its breach could propel bullion to last June’s high at 1910.
Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com
As we can see in the H4 chart, GBPUSD is consolidating around 38.2% fibo. This consolidation range may be followed by a new rising impulse. The mid-term upside targets may be 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 1.3833 and 1.3987 respectively. The key support remains at the low at 1.3160.
The H1 chart shows that after falling and reaching 61.8% fibo, the pair started a new wave to the upside and has already reached 23.6% fibo. Possibly, in the future, the price may continue growing and reach the local high at 1.3749 or even break it. Another scenario implies a new wave to the downside to return to 76.0% fibo at 1.3301 but it’s highly unlikely.
EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”
As we can see in the H4 chart, divergence on MACD made EURJPY complete its rising wave at 76.0% fibo and start a new correctional decline, which may be over quite soon. In the nearest future, the asset may resume trading upwards to reach the high at 134.12. The support is the low at 127.38.
In the H1 chart, divergence on MACD made the asset correct to the downside and reach 61.8% fibo. By now, the price has returned to 38.2% fibo; at the moment, it is heading towards the local high at 133.15. Later, the instrument may form one more descending impulse to reach 76.0% at 129.43.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
The European Central Bank continues to actively print money, despite Christine Lagarde’s promises to reduce the pace of asset purchases. At the same time, Ms. Lagarde said in her last speech that the ECB would not rush to cancel stimulus measures prematurely, as this could have negative consequences for the region’s economy. But in the medium term, analysts see a decrease in EURUSD quotes as the Fed will begin to tighten monetary policy next month actively.
From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hourly time frame has changed to bearish. The price has corrected to the moving average. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for sell trades on intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.1368 or 1.1392. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.1283, but only with additional confirmation.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1423 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.
News feed for 2022.02.16:
– Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+2).
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.3518
Prev Close: 1.3540
% chg. over the last day: +0.16%
The UK unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% in the last quarter of 2021. Job openings also hit a new record, marking what the Employment Research Institute called “the tightest labor market in fifty years.” The UK labor market is stable, manufacturing is returning to pre-pandemic levels, and the Bank of England is raising interest rates, which will strengthen the British currency. Inflation data will be published in the UK today. Analysts expect consumer prices to remain unchanged.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.3506, 1.3475, 1.3457
Resistance levels: 1.3547, 1.3594, 1.3639, 1.3662
On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bullish. Unlike the euro, the British pound has fundamental support. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be looked at from the support level 1.3506. The resistance level of 1.3594 may be considered for opening sell deals, but only with additional confirmation in the form of sellers’ initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3475 support level and consolidates below, the bullish scenario will be broken.
News feed for 2022.02.16:
– UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2).
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 115.51
Prev Close: 115.59
% chg. over the last day: +0.07%
The monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is now aimed at making the Japanese yen cheaper because of the maximum stimulus. At the same time, the Fed plans to tighten its monetary policy aggressively. Such opposite policies of central banks contribute to the growth of USD/JPY quotes. However, it should be noted that the Japanese yen is considered a safe-haven currency in case of panic in the market. The geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe has somewhat calmed down, which sent some investors back to riskier assets.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 115.38, 115.21, 115.02, 114.76
Resistance levels: 115.85, 116.12, 116.50
The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The USD/JPY quotes are growing, and the price is trading in a corridor with wide volatility. The MACD indicator is inactive. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals on the lower time frames from the support level of 115.38, but with additional confirmation. Sell positions can be looked at from the resistance level 116.12, but only with short targets and additional confirmation.
Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below 115.02, the uptrend will likely be broken.
There is no news feed for today.
The USD/CAD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.2726
Prev Close: 1.2716
% chg. over the last day: -0.08%
The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the oil prices and the dollar index. The USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading in a wide corridor, and now both currencies have fundamental support. On the one hand, the worsened situation in Eastern Europe contributes to the growth of the dollar index. On the other hand, oil prices are also rising due to the same geopolitics and limited supply. Inflation data will be released today in Canada. Analysts expect consumer prices to rise, which may strengthen the Canadian currency (USD/CAD quotes will decrease).
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.2685, 1.2664, 1.2600, 1.2506
Resistance levels: 1.2769, 1.2794
From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is in a wide flat with high volatility. It is worth trading only with short targets, as both oil and the dollar index are inclined to grow now. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2685. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2794, but with an additional confirmation in the form of an initiative of sellers.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2664 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for 2022.02.16:
– Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
The current DXY structure suggests the development of a large triple zigzag consisting of cycle degree waves w-x-y-x-z.
Cycle actionary wave z is under construction at the time of writing. The internal structure of this wave hints at a double combination Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ. The first two parts of the double zigzag appear to be fully complete. Therefore, the price could rise in the final primary wave Ⓨ.
The target of 99.182 is determined using the Fibonacci extension. At that level, wave z will be at 61.8% of previous actionary wave y.
Alternatively, there is a possibility that the cycle intervening wave x has not ended.
In the second variant, the cycle actionary wave y was longer than in the main one. And it has the form of a primary triple zigzag.
Thus, if this option is confirmed, then in the near future the market will move in a downward direction and will continue to build a cycle intervening wave x. It is possible that the price will fall to the level of 93.514, as indicated on the chart.
At the level of 93.514, wave x will be at 50% along the Fibonacci lines of wave y.
Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com
The US dollar recovers as hot CPI fuels bets of a 50 basis points hike in March. The rally came to a halt at January’s high (116.35).
Profit-taking compounded by new selling triggered a liquidation below 115.50. The medium-term trajectory remains upward and the bulls may be eager to buy the dips. 114.90 is the next support and an oversold RSI may attract bargain hunters.
Further down, the daily support at 114.20 is a major demand zone in case of a deeper correction. A close above the double top could resume the uptrend.
XAGUSD tests resistance
Bullion rallies over investors’ flight to safety. Silver continues to climb from the daily support at 22.00.
Following a brief pullback, a break above the recent high at 23.70 indicates strong buying interest. A bullish MA cross is a sign of acceleration to the upside.
The psychological level of 24.00 is the next hurdle and a breakout would bring the price to January’s peak at 24.70. The RSI’s overbought situation may cause a limited fallback; if so the previous low at 22.90 would be the closest support.
GER 40 tests critical floor
The Dax 40 remains under pressure over Russia-Ukraine tensions. The last rebound’s failure to achieve a new high showed that the bears were still in charge.
Trend followers are likely to sell into strength as sentiment remains wary. The index saw bids in the critical demand zone around 14900 which has been tested several times in the last four months.
A bearish breakout would trigger a broader sell-off and put a serious dent in the medium-term rally. The bulls will need to reclaim 15500 before they could turn things around.
Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com
EURUSD is trading at 1.1318; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.1365 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1190. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the resistance level. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.1455. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.1545. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the rising channel’s downside border and fix below 1.1245.
GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
GBPUSD is trading at 1.3529; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.3545 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.3365. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.3605. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.3695. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the downside border of a Double Top reversal pattern and fix below 1.3470.
XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
XAUUSD is trading at 1878.00; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1865.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1905.00. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1795.00. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1765.00.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
