Forex and Currency News

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 114

Currency Speculators boost US Dollar Index bets to 4-week high, CAD bets rise

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT currency market speculator bets were mostly higher overall this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian dollar (9,102 contracts) with the British pound sterling (3,260 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,466 contracts), Brazilian real (1,237 contracts), Euro (1,161 contracts), Mexican peso (862 contracts) and Bitcoin (385 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the Australian dollar (-4,237 contracts) with the Japanese yen (-2,256 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-515 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-387 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Notes:

Highlighting the forex markets COT data this week was the continued strength of the US Dollar Index. The speculative position for the US Dollar Index gained again this week for a second straight week and after falling in the previous three weeks. These gains bring the overall net bullish position back over the +40,000 contract level for the first time since June 28th and for the fourth time in the past seven weeks. The Dollar Index positioning has been super-strong much like the Dollar Index price that has been trading near its highest levels in approximately twenty years. The Dollar Index speculator positions have now been above the +30,000 contract level for fifteen straight weeks and has been in a bullish standing for fifty-six weeks and counting.

Canadian dollar positions gained this week for a second straight week and the net position hit a seven-week high. Canadian dollar speculator positions have, more or less, been fluctuating for almost a year and recently had a 5-week spell of bearish levels from May to June before becoming bullish again in late-June and July. The CAD speculator position has been in a small bullish level for the past seven weeks and is now at +15,769 contracts.

Euro bets rebounded a bit this week by just over +1,100 contracts and halted a three-week streak of declines. The Euro speculator position has been sharply down-trending over the past eight weeks and has fallen by a total of -93,856 contracts since June 7th. This drop in Euro bets reversed a +52,272 net contract level from May 31st to a total of -41,584 net contract level this week. The Euro exchange rate against the US Dollar (EURUSD) remains very close to parity at just over 1.200 currently after edging out a couple of weekly gains in forex market trading.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-26-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	60,456	90	40,535	93	-43,313	7	2,778	47
EUR	694,099	80	-41,584	22	18,656	81	22,928	12
GBP	225,889	55	-53,990	35	70,959	72	-16,969	20
JPY	229,219	75	-61,481	31	73,773	72	-12,292	28
CHF	44,081	29	-11,299	28	20,610	76	-9,311	26
CAD	144,182	26	15,769	57	-22,197	50	6,428	43
AUD	156,473	50	-47,385	41	50,601	57	-3,216	45
NZD	46,471	37	-4,186	64	7,608	42	-3,422	12
MXN	195,025	47	-29,898	15	26,859	84	3,039	56
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	41,645	29	11,712	62	-12,610	39	898	75
Bitcoin	14,957	87	-121	78	-118	0	239	18

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Dollar Index (92.5 percent) continues to lead the strength scores and rose a bit this week as speculator net position increased. The Dollar Index is in a bullish extreme level at over 90 percent compared to its three-year range. Bitcoin (78.1 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores followed by the New Zealand Dollar (64.2 percent) and then the Brazil Real (61.9 percent). On the downside, the Mexican Peso (14.6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent). The EuroFX (22.2 percent), Swiss Franc (27.9 percent) and the Japanese Yen (31.0 percent) round out the next lowest scores this week.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (92.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (90.1 percent)
EuroFX (22.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (21.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (35.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (32.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (31.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (32.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (27.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (28.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (57.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (46.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (40.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (44.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (64.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (65.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (14.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (14.2 percent)
Brazil Real (61.9 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (60.7 percent)
Bitcoin (78.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (71.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound Sterling (8.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Japanese Yen (5.1 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (4.4 percent) fill out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data. The Brazilian Real (-34.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Bitcoin (-21.5 percent) followed by the Swiss Franc (-11.4 percent) and the EuroFX (-10.9 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-6.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (1.9 percent)
EuroFX (-10.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-28.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (8.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (9.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (5.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (20.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-11.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (13.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-8.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (8.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (-3.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (4.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (27.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-1.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-27.1 percent)
Brazil Real (-34.9 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-35.6 percent)
Bitcoin (-21.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-18.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 40,535 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,069 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.9	4.1	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	75.8	4.1
– Net Position:	40,535	-43,313	2,778
– Gross Longs:	51,337	2,492	5,227
– Gross Shorts:	10,802	45,805	2,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.5	7.0	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	7.0	-5.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -41,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,161 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	56.6	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.5	53.9	8.7
– Net Position:	-41,584	18,656	22,928
– Gross Longs:	198,041	393,062	83,007
– Gross Shorts:	239,625	374,406	60,079
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.2	81.3	12.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	13.4	-19.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -53,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,260 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	74.5	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.2	43.1	15.3
– Net Position:	-53,990	70,959	-16,969
– Gross Longs:	34,606	168,266	17,551
– Gross Shorts:	88,596	97,307	34,520
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	71.6	20.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-6.0	-3.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -61,481 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,225 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	68.9	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.9	36.7	15.7
– Net Position:	-61,481	73,773	-12,292
– Gross Longs:	43,812	157,963	23,671
– Gross Shorts:	105,293	84,190	35,963
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.0	71.6	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-6.2	8.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	61.7	19.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	14.9	40.8
– Net Position:	-11,299	20,610	-9,311
– Gross Longs:	8,138	27,195	8,653
– Gross Shorts:	19,437	6,585	17,964
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	4.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.9	76.3	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	3.9	6.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,667 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	42.9	23.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	58.3	19.0
– Net Position:	15,769	-22,197	6,428
– Gross Longs:	46,414	61,869	33,790
– Gross Shorts:	30,645	84,066	27,362
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	50.2	43.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	6.7	-1.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -47,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,148 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	65.4	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.5	33.1	14.4
– Net Position:	-47,385	50,601	-3,216
– Gross Longs:	30,024	102,398	19,361
– Gross Shorts:	77,409	51,797	22,577
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.9	56.6	44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	4.4	-4.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.3	57.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.3	40.6	12.2
– Net Position:	-4,186	7,608	-3,422
– Gross Longs:	17,311	26,498	2,249
– Gross Shorts:	21,497	18,890	5,671
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.2	42.1	12.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-3.3	-5.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -29,898 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.6	46.6	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.9	32.9	1.4
– Net Position:	-29,898	26,859	3,039
– Gross Longs:	96,752	90,972	5,815
– Gross Shorts:	126,650	64,113	2,776
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.6	84.0	55.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	1.5	-0.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 11,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,475 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.5	41.1	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	71.3	5.8
– Net Position:	11,712	-12,610	898
– Gross Longs:	20,614	17,103	3,296
– Gross Shorts:	8,902	29,713	2,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.9	39.0	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.9	35.0	-4.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -506 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.4	3.0	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.2	3.8	6.2
– Net Position:	-121	-118	239
– Gross Longs:	9,778	449	1,160
– Gross Shorts:	9,899	567	921
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	50.9	18.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.5	48.1	8.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

29 Jul

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 29.07.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Having completed the ascending wave at 1.0222, EURUSD is trading close to the bearish channel’s upside border. Possibly, today the pair may fall towards 1.0077 and then form a new consolidation range around 1.0177.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD continue growing towards 1.2227 and may later fall to break 1.2100 and then continue trading downwards with the target at 1.1963.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY continues falling with the short-term target at 132.55. After that, the instrument may correct up to 135.00 and then form a new descending structure to reach 131.11.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Having finished the descending wave at 0.9511, USDCHF is expected to start another growth to break 0.9572. Later, the market may continue trading upwards with the target at 0.9738.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is still consolidating around 0.7000. Possibly, today the pair may resume trading downwards with the target at 0.6930.

BRENT

Brent continues consolidating around 105.55. Today, the asset may form one more ascending wave with the short-term target at 108.88. After that, the instrument may correct to test 105.55 from above and then start another growth to reach 111.00.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has reached the short-term upside target at 1762.40. Today, the metal may start another correction to test 1739.40 from above and then resume trading upwards with the target at 1792.92.

S&P 500

The S&P index has reached the short-term upside target at 4100.0. Possibly, today the asset may consolidate around this level. If later the price breaks the range to the downside, the market may start a new correction towards 3921.2; if to the upside – form one more ascending structure with the target at 4211.0.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Jul

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 29.07.2022 (GBPUSD, USDCHF, NZDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is growing within the bullish channel. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen at 1.2140 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.2410. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.1875. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.1665.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has fixed above the support area. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen at 0.9585 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.9355. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.9775. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.9865.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is no longer moving inside the bullish channel. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen at 0.6295 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.6405. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6150. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6055.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Jul

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.07.29

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0200
Prev Close: 1.0196
% chg. over the last day: -0.04%

US gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.9% y/y in the second quarter. Consumer spending grew at the slowest pace in two years, and business spending declined, raising the risk that the economy is on the brink of a recession. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP growth of 0.5%. Today in Europe, there will be many vital macroeconomic statistics, and volatility will be higher.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0170, 1.0142, 1.0112, 1.0035, 1.0000
Resistance levels: 1.0284, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is still forming a wide volatile balance, and buyer pressure prevails now. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best sought on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0170 or 1.0142. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0284, but only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.0112 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.29:

– Eurozone French GDP (q/q) at 08:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Spanish GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone German GDP (q/q) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2149
Prev Close: 1.2177
% chg. over the last day: +0.23%

Brexit is only one of the major problems facing the next British prime minister. Other problems include high inflation, the cost of living crisis, gov sector wages, and the healthcare crisis. Add to that the interest rate differential between the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve, and you get a rough picture of how much stronger the US dollar is now than the British currency. However, the British pound has been strengthening for the last two weeks as the US Dollar Index has declined amid a decrease in hawkish sentiment by the US Fed.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2143, 1.2089, 1.2063, 1.1907, 1.1803
Resistance levels: 1.2238, 1.2294

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. Buyer pressure remains. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone but shows signs of divergence already in several time frames. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the intraday time frames from the support level 1.2143 or 1.2089, but only with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2238, but only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2006 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 136.48
Prev Close: 134.22
% chg. over the last day: -1.68%

Tokyo’s core Consumer Price Index rose from 2.1% to 2.3% annually. The unemployment rate remained at 2.6%. Retail sales increased by 1.5% in June, while the industrial production index added 8.9% in the last month against an expected 7.5% decline. The Japanese Yen has strengthened today in the background of such production growth.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 131.67, 130.99
Resistance levels: 134.72, 135.10, 136.03, 137.11

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. Over the last three trading sessions, the Japanese yen has been getting stronger. The MACD indicator has become negative, and the sellers’ pressure is still there, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 131.67, but with additional confirmation. Resistance levels of 134.72 or 135.10 may be considered for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 137.11, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.29:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2819
Prev Close: 1.2805
% chg. over the last day: -0.11%

The situation on the USD/CAD currency pair remains the same. When the US Dollar Index is falling and oil prices are rising, it is a green light for the Canadian currency, because the Canadian is a commodity currency and is directly dependent on these indicators. The interest rates of the central banks of the USA and Canada are at the same level now, so the price will keep a certain balance without any significant trends.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2781
Resistance levels: 1.2880, 1.2923, 1.3006, 1.3085, 1.3154

In terms of technical analysis, the USD/CAD currency pair trend is bearish. Currently, the price is forming a wide balance and trading on the lower border of the descending channel. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there is a divergence, which indicates that it is harder for the price to move lower. Under such market conditions, it is better to consider sell deals from the resistance level of 1.2880, but with confirmation. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2781 or the channel’s lower border, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the 1.3006 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.29:

– Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Jul

Week Ahead: BOE to sustain GBPUSD above 50-day SMA?

By ForexTime

The first week of August is set to feature a host of key events that could shake up markets, including the latest US jobs report, fresh Wall Street earnings, and perhaps even a new OPEC+ deal.

Still, the central bank watch remains front and center as the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England could hike their respective rates by another 50 basis points each in the coming week.

Here are the key releases and events that we’re keeping an eye on for the week ahead:

Monday, August 1

AUD: Australia July inflation
CNH: China July Caixin manufacturing PMI
EUR: Eurozone June unemployment rate
USD: US July ISM manufacturing data

Tuesday, August 2

AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision
USD: Speeches by Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard
Starbucks 2Q earnings
BP 2Q earnings

Wednesday, August 3

NZD: New Zealand 2Q unemployment
AUD: Australia Q2 retail sales
CNH: China July Caixin services PMI
EUR: Eurozone June retail sales, PPI; Germany June external trade
USD: US June factory orders, July ISM services index
Brent: OPEC+ meeting
US crude: EIA weekly oil inventory report

Thursday, August 4

AUD: Australia June external trade
EUR: ECB publishes Economic Bulletin; Germany June factory orders
GBP: Bank of England rate decision
USD: US weekly jobless claims; Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speech
Alibaba 2Q earnings

Friday, August 5

AUD: RBA releases Monetary Policy statement, including updated economic forecasts
GBP: BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill speech
EUR: Germany June industrial production
CAD: Canada July unemployment
USD: US July nonfarm payrolls

GBPUSD traders will be firmly focused on whether the Bank of England’s policy decision could help keep “cable” above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), provided this pair can first see a meaningful breach of this immediate resistance level.

At the time of writing, markets are forecasting just a 53% chance of a 50bps hike by the BOE at its August policy meeting; those odds are a far cry from the 84.5% back at the start of July.

A 50bps hike by the BOE could help lift Sterling, provided policymakers can not only prove doubters wrong and trigger its largest hike in 27 years, but also point to more larger-than-usual hikes in the pipeline.

After all, with the UK consumer price index (CPI) already registering at 9.4% in June – its highest CPI print since February 1982 – that’s reason enough for the central bank to “act forcefully”. UK inflation is also forecasted to go on to post double-digit figures in Q4.

Yet, markets have enough reasons to doubt that the UK’s central bank can indeed follow through with this “forceful” stance.

UK retail sales have been contracting while consumer confidence is at its lowest in about five decades. Workers across various industries have been on strike as wages struggle to keep up with soaring inflation. Since May, the BOE already issued a grim outlook for the UK economy, forecasting a recession for 2023.

Sterling’s upside is being capped by the markets’ pessimism about the UK economy’s ability to withstand interest rates moving much higher.

Such doubts suggest that GBPUSD may do no better than the mid-June cycle high around 1.24 over the near-term, provided the US dollar remains soft in the interim.

If markets instead seize on BOE hesitance to send UK rates higher at this August policy meeting, then the 1.20 psychologically-important level could beckon once more for GBPUSD.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

28 Jul

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 28.07.2022 (USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming several reversal patterns close to the support level, such as Doji and Hammer, USDCAD may reverse in the form of another ascending impulse. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance area at 1.2920. Later, the market may break this level and continue growing. However, an alternative scenario implies that the asset may correct to reach 1.2740 and continue the uptrend only after the pullback.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, AUDUSD has formed a Harami reversal pattern near the resistance area. At the moment, the asset is reversing in the form a new descending impulse. In this case, the downside target may be the support level at 0.6950. After testing the level, the price may rebound from it and resume the ascending tendency. At the same time, the opposite scenario implies that the price may grow to reach 0.7065 and continue the uptrend without any pullbacks.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after testing the support area, the pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern. At the moment, USDCHF may reverse in the form of a new rising impulse. In this case, the upside target may be at 0.9695. After testing the resistance level, the price may break it and continue trading upwards. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, in which the asset may correct to reach 0.9550 and continue the ascending tendency only after correcting down to the support area.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

28 Jul

Murrey Math Lines 28.07.2022 (USDCHF, GOLD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

In the H4 chart, USDCHF is trading below the 200-day Moving Average to indicate a possible descending tendency. In this case, the pair is expected to test 2/8, break it, and then continue falling towards the support at 1/8. However, this scenario may be cancelled if the price breaks the resistance at 3/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may move upwards to reach 4/8.

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue its decline.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, XAUUSD is also trading below the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating a descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to test 4/8, rebound from it, and then resume moving downwards to reach the support at 3/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance at 4/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and resume growing to return to 5/8.

As we can see in the M15 chart, the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator is pretty far away from the price, that’s why the pair may resume trading downwards only after rebounding from 4/8 in the H4 chart.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

28 Jul

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.07.28

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0114
Prev Close: 1.0198
% chg. over the last day: +0.83%

The US central bank raised rates by three-quarters of a percentage point for the second session in a row to rein in record inflation but noted that while the labor market remains strong, other economic indicators have deteriorated. According to the Fed gov, there are no signs of a recession at this time. At the press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell supported the idea that the central bank will hold another rate hike in September, although he said that a slower pace of increases might be needed. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, expectations for a 50 basis point hike at the September Fed meeting rose to 60.9%, up from 50.7% the day before.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0170, 1.0142, 1.0035, 1.0000
Resistance levels: 1.0202, 1.0250, 1.0284, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is still forming a wide volatile balance, and buyer pressure prevails now. The MACD indicator has become positive. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best sought on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0170 or 1.0142. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0202, only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.0035 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.28:

– US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Treasury Sec Yellen Speaks at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2016
Prev Close: 1.2155
% chg. over the last day: +1.16%

The British pound rose sharply yesterday as the dollar fell after the FOMC meeting. But traders should remember that the interest rate of the central bank of England is now at 1.25%, while the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate is 2.5%, which is twice as much. Such differences can’t pass in vain for the British currency, so analysts expect a decline in GBP/USD quotes in the coming weeks.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2089, 1.2063, 1.1907, 1.1803
Resistance levels: 1.2238, 1.2294

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. Buyer pressure remains. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone but shows signs of divergence already in several time frames. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the intraday time frames from the support level 1.2089 or 1.2063, but only with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2238, but only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.1907 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 136.89
Prev Close: 136.60
% chg. over the last day: -0.22%

Despite the decline in the US Dollar Index yesterday, analysts are still confident in a further rise in USD/JPY quotes as the US and Japanese central banks are moving in different directions. The US Fed is planning another rate hike in September, while the Japanese bank does not intend to tighten its policy until the end of the year.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 134.64, 134.11
Resistance levels: 135.88, 136.62, 137.11, 138.25

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. But it should be noted that the fall in the USD/JPY quotes is not accompanied by any fundamental factors, so traders should be careful. The MACD indicator has become negative, and the sellers’ pressure is still there, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought intraday from the lower boundary of the descending channel or the support level of 134.64, but with additional confirmation. Resistance levels of 135.88 or 136.62 may be considered for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 138.25, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2886
Prev Close: 1.2822
% chg. over the last day: -0.50%

When the US Dollar Index is falling, and oil prices are rising, it is a green light for the Canadian currency because the Canadian is a commodity currency and is directly dependent on these indicators. Now the interest rates of the central banks of the USA and Canada are at the same level, so the price will keep a certain balance without significant trends.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2781
Resistance levels: 1.2880, 1.2923, 1.3006, 1.3085, 1.3154

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. Currently, the price is forming a wide balance and trading on the lower border of the descending channel. The MACD indicator is negative again, but there is a divergence, which indicates that it is harder for the price to move lower. Under such market conditions, it is better to consider sell deals from the resistance level of 1.2880, but with confirmation. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2781 or the lower border of the channel, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the 1.3006 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

28 Jul

Technical Outlook: Dollar Weakens On Less Hawkish Fed

By ForexTime

– Earlier in the week, we questioned whether another jumbo Fed rate hike would be enough to satisfy dollar bulls.

Well, we got our answer yesterday evening after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75bps for the second straight month to tame inflation. King dollar offered a muted response and was more concerned with comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

The central bank head said a lot of things, highlighting the strong labour markets but weak economic indicators and inflation risk. However, it felt like markets were expecting a more hawkish Powell but instead offered a Powell who talked about rate hikes but left out details on timing. So according to the Fed chair, another “usually large” hike may be appropriate in September but this will be heavily influenced by economic data. He also mentioned that the Fed may slow hikes at some time in the future…

Time for USD bears to attack?

The dollar weakened against every single G10 currency yesterday despite the 75bps rate hike.

If such a jumbo rate hike was unable to excite dollar bulls, then imagine how the currency may react when the Fed raises interest rates by the expected 50bps in September?

Taking a look at the technical picture, the Dollar Index (DXY) is under pressure on the daily charts with prices wobbling above 106.00. A breakdown below this level could signal the start of a bearish trend with 104.60 acting as the first target.

We can see a similar scene playing out on the equally-weighted USD index. A breakdown below the 50-day Simple Moving Average may open the doors towards 1.1700. Below this level, bears are likely to target 1.1630 and 1.1450.

EURUSD to extend rebound?

A weaker dollar could provide a lifeline for EURUSD bulls, keeping prices above parity for slightly longer before the fundamental forces eventually drag prices lower. There seems to be something about the sticky 1.0200 level which has acted as support and resistance over the past few days. A solid breakout and weekly close above this level could encourage a move higher towards 1.0350. Should prices fail to conquer 1.0200, a move back to parity could be on the cards.

GBPUSD breakout inspires bulls

After bouncing within a range, the GBPUSD has finally experienced a breakout above the 1.2060 resistance level. This has been fuelled by a weaker dollar with further upside expected in the short to medium term. The next key levels of interest can be found at the 50-day Simple Moving Average and 1.2350 resistance level.

AUDUSD eyes 0.7050 resistance

Dollar weakness could propel the AUDUSD towards the 0.7050 level. A breakout above this point may open the doors towards 0.7150 and higher. Should 0.7050 prove to be reliable resistance, prices may decline back towards 0.6850.

USDJPY breaks below 136.00

We see a potential breakdown opportunity on the USDJPY. Prices are trading below the 136.00 support level and could decline towards 134.00 which is above the 50-day Simple Moving Average. A strong breakdown below 134.00 could open the doors towards 131.00.

EURJPY lower lows and lower highs

As the subtitle says, the EURJPY is experiencing lower lows and lower highs on the daily charts. Prices are trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Average while the MACD trades below zero. A strong breakdown below 137.00 could pave a path back towards 134.50.

Time for gold to fight back?

Reduced expectations over the Federal Reserve maintaining an aggressive approach on rates could provide zero-yielding gold some breathing room. A weaker dollar is likely to complement upside gains, pushing prices further away from $1700. Talking technicals, a breakout above $1750 could signal a move towards $1784.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

27 Jul

Murrey Math Lines 27.07.2022 (USDJPY, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

On the H4 chart, after breaking 8/8, USDJPY is no longer trading within the “overbought” area. In this case, the price is expected to test the resistance at 8/8, rebound from it, and resume falling and reach 6/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance at 8/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and grow towards +1/8.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after breaking the 200-day Moving Average, USDCAD is also trading below it, thus indicating a possible descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to test 1/8, break it, and then continue falling towards the support at 0/8. On the other hand, this scenario may no longer be valid if the pair breaks the resistance at 2/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and grow to reach 3/8.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue trading downwards.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

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All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.