Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 101

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 20.09.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is still consolidating around 0.9992; it has already expanded the range up to 1.0049 and is currently falling to return to 0.9992. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may form a new descending wave to reach 0.9800; if to the upside – resume trading upwards with the target at 1.0200.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD continues growing towards 1.1472 and may later start another decline to reach 1.1380. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 1.1212; if to the upside – form one more ascending wave with the target at 1.1550.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is still consolidating around 143.25 without any specific direction. Possibly, today the pair may expand the range up to 144.00 and then fall to return to 143.25. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending wave to reach 144.99; if to the downside – resume trading downwards to break 141.99 and then continue falling with the target at 140.99.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After finishing the ascending wave at 0.9694 along with the correction down to 0.9630, USDCHF is expected to resume trading upwards with the short-term target at 0.9713.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has completed the ascending wave at 0.6740; right now, it is falling towards 0.6690. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may form a new descending wave to reach 0.6600; if to the upside – resume trading upwards with the target at 0.6800 and then start another decline towards 0.6525.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent has finished the descending wave at 88.60; right now. it is growing towards 93.00 and may later correct down to 90.50. After that, the instrument may start another growth to reach 97.00, or even extend this structure up to 100.00.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still consolidating around 1668.60. Today, the metal may fall to reach 1660.00 and then resume growing towards 1683.11. Later, the market may start a new decline to reach 1652.00 and then form one more ascending wave with the target at 1700.00.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

After completing the descending structure at 3832.0 and then returning to test 3912.0 from below, the S&P index is expected to start another decline with the target at 3770.0.

S&P 500

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 20.09.2022 (EURUSD, XAUUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is correcting within the Wedge pattern. The instrument is currently moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.0045 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.9845. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the upside border of the Wedge pattern. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.0110. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.0215. To confirm a further downtrend, the price must break the pattern’s downside border and fix below 0.9965.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD is testing Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Kijun-Sen at 1675.00 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1625.00. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1705.00. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1745.00.

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is rebounding from the support area. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Kijun-Sen at 1.3225 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.3425. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.3045. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.2955.

USDCAD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.09.20

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0007
  • Prev Close: 1.0020
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.13 %

The risk of recession in the Eurozone has reached its highest level since July 2020 as fears grow that winter energy shortages will cause economic activity to decline. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg now estimate the probability of two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction at 80% over the next 12 months, up from 60% in the previous survey. Germany, the bloc’s largest economy and one of the most exposed to shrinking gas supplies, is likely to contract as soon as this quarter. Inflation is now expected to peak at 9.6% in the next three months, nearly five times the European Central Bank’s target.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 0.9989, 0.9912
  • Resistance levels: 1.0148, 1.0111, 1.0162, 1.0230

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. On Friday, the price formed a false breakdown area below the level of 0.9971, and then on Monday, tested this zone. The MACD indicator became positive, and there is a slight buying pressure. Buy trades may be considered from the 0.9989 level. It is better to look for sell deals from the resistance levels of 1.0111 or 1.0162.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 0.9912 and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.09.20:
  • – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 20:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1411
  • Prev Close: 1.1415
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.04 %

This week the Bank of England will consider whether to hold the largest interest rate hike in 33 years to respond to rising inflation and weakening confidence in British assets. With inflation, at five times the UK Central Bank’s goal of 2%, and the pound falling almost daily, policymakers led by Governor Andrew Bailey are forced to consider tightening monetary policy. The arguments for a 75 basis point hike are already more persuasive than those for a 50 basis point hike. But Prime Minister Liz Truss’ actions to protect households from rising energy bills will give a boost to the economy by softening the recession. So on the other hand, the government’s emergency energy support package reduces the need for an aggressive rate hike.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1400
  • Resistance levels: 1.1449, 1.1626, 1.1693, 1.1816, 1.1901, 1.1994, 1.2035, 1.2167

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame has changed to bearish. At the moment, the price is trading at the level of moving averages, and the MACD indicator has become inactive. It is quite possible that the price is now forming a false-breakdown zone, which can be used as support if the price again consolidates above the level of 1.1449. Sell trades are better to consider in the intraday time frames, and the nearest resistance level is 1.1626.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out of the 1.1693 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 142.88
  • Prev Close: 143.20
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.23 %

The nationwide Consumer Price Index rose to an annualized 2.8% (2.6% previously), the highest reading in 8 years. And while inflation remains above the 2% target, the Bank of Japan cannot be expected to abandon its ultra-soft monetary policy suddenly. Analysts predict that traders should not expect any changes in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy before the year’s end. Therefore, considering that the US Fed keeps raising the interest rates, the gap between the rates continues to widen, which will put negative pressure on the yen.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 142.57, 141.77, 141.00, 139.61, 138.78, 137.65, 136.80, 135.20
  • Resistance levels: 144.21, 145.00

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price is trading at the level of the slips and forming a balance. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 142.57, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered on intraday time frames from the resistance level of 144.21 or 145.00, but only with additional confirmation since, fundamentally, the USD/JPY is inclined to grow.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 141.00, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
News feed for 2022.09.20:
  • – Japan National Core Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3260
  • Prev Close: 1.3250
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.08 %

Canada will release Consumer Price Index data today. Canada’s inflation rate is expected to fall for the second month to 7.3% from 7.6% annualized. But the Bank of Canada focuses more on the Core Index, which excludes food and energy prices, and the situation there is much more complicated. The annual core CPI is expected to rise to 6.2% from 6.1%. Therefore, the Bank of Canada is likely to maintain its aggressive stance. On the other hand, a deviation from expectations will signal a continued downward trajectory for inflation. That could revive the discussion about the extent to which the Bank of Canada will hold back tightening at its next meeting. As for the Canadian dollar, its weakness is due to the expectation that the Bank of Canada will “reverse” first. But if core inflation continues to rise, the BOC will remain aggressive, and the USD/CAD uptrend could be interrupted. Of course, the situation can change if inflation shows a decrease, in which case the BOC can take a break from rate hikes.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3220, 1.3053, 1.2990, 1.2958, 1.2936, 1.2900
  • Resistance levels: 1.3303, 1.3326

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is trading at the level of moving averages, and the MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3220. The best way to sell is to consider the resistance level of 1.3303, but only after an additional confirmation in the form of a false breakdown.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.2990 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
News feed for 2022.09.20:
  • – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Markets Cautious Ahead Of Fed Meeting

By ForexTime

European shares edged cautiously higher on Tuesday as investors braced for a busy trading week, jampacked with central bank decisions and headlined by the U.S Federal Reserve.

Overnight, Wall Street concluded the session on a positive note despite oscillating between losses and gains, while king dollar very lightly loosened its grip on the FX throne. In the commodity space, gold prices are struggling for direction, waiting for the FOMC meeting but oil seems to be stabilising after experiencing volatility in the previous session on growth and demand concerns.

It’s all about central banks this week with the Fed’s two-day monetary policy meeting beginning today. The US central bank is widely expected to fire another monetary policy bazooka at inflation after the surprise move higher in US CPI last week. On Thursday, the spotlight shines on the Bank of Japan, Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and Central Bank of Norway who are set to hold their respective policy meetings. These high-risk events have the potential to intensify volatility across currency, commodity, and equity markets.

In the meantime, caution should remain the name of the game with investors finding comfort on the sidelines. As the Fed and other major central banks ramp up efforts to contain inflation, fears around a hard landing for their respective economies could leave market players jittery. The lack of appetite for risk amid growth fears could drain equity bulls further, opening the doors for fresh losses across global stock markets.

Fed expected to fire another monetary missile

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points for a third straight meeting tomorrow. However, much of the focus will fall on the updated summary of economic projections and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference. Investors will have their magnifying glasses on the “dot plot” for key clues on when and where the Fed’s hiking cycle might be coming to an end. Markets currently see US rates reaching 4% by December 2022 which suggests two smaller 50 basis point rate increases in November and December after a three-quarter point rate rise at Wednesday’s meeting.  Powell’s press conference may provide some insight into this and what we can expect from the Fed over the coming months and 2023.

If the Fed moves ahead with the expected 75-basis point rate rise, this could inject dollar bulls with some fresh energy. But such a move would need to be accompanied by hawkish comments from Powell and a “dot plot” that projects more aggressive rate hikes in the final quarter of this year and potentially into 2023. If the Fed catches markets off guard with a smaller than expected hike, this would hit the dollar hard with a dovish-sounding Powell accelerating the selloff. We expect the dollar to display volatility whatever the outcome of the meeting, with action expected across the FX space.

Currency spotlight – GBPUSD

Last week, GBPUSD tumbled to levels not seen since 1985 as uncertainty over the UK’s economic outlook haunted investor attraction towards the pound. A strong dollar bruised sterling further with prices trading around 1.1430 as of writing. 

On Thursday, the majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the Bank of England to raise rates by a half-percentage point. Although the annual inflation rate in the UK unexpectedly cooled to 9.9% in August from 10.1%, it’s still at uncomfortably high levels and close to five times higher than the bank’s 2% target.

The pound could receive a short-term boost if the BoE strikes a hawkish tone and signals more big rate hikes down the road. However, upside gains may be capped by growth fears as higher rates result in the UK economy experiencing a hard landing. Alternatively, a dovish-sounding BoE that expresses concerns over the UK economy will most likely drag the already tired pound lower. Talking technicals, GBPUSD is under pressure on the daily charts with the path of least resistance pointing south. A solid weekly close below 1.1400 could encourage bears to attack the downside with last week’s low at 1.1350.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold could be destined for more pain this week thanks to the Fed.

It has been a rough month for the precious metal due to a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields. After tumbling below the $1700 psychological level last week, it feels like bears have won the battle in September However, the war still rages on with various fundamental forces influencing gold prices.

Looking at price action through a technical lens, gold remains trapped within a short-term range, below key resistance. Sustained weakness below $1680 could open the doors toward levels below $1650 and not seen since early April 2020.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Trade of the Week: GBPUSD to sink further?

By ForexTime 

GBPUSD has entered this trading week at its weakest levels since 1985!

 

And it’s not just GBPUSD that’s winding back the clocks to the 1980s.

This week, if forecasts in some segments of the financial markets are to be believed, the central banks of the US and the UK may also trigger their largest rate hikes respectively since 1989!

Here’s what markets are currently forecasting in the lead up to these pivotal events:

  • Fed rate decision: Wednesday, September 21st

Hike by at least 75-basis points (bps).
If so, that would be its third consecutive hike of such magnitude, following similar moves at its June and July policy meetings.

Markets forecast a 22% chance (low odds, but not negligible) for a gargantuan 100bps – which would be its largest hike since 1989.

  • Bank of England (BOE) rate decision: Thursday, September 22nd

75bps hike (similar to the Fed) fully priced in

If so, that would be the BOE’s largest hike in this ongoing rate-hike cycle that began in December 2021.
19% chance being accorded for a humongous 100bps hike this week – a move not seen since 1989.

How would Fed + BOE decisions impact GBPUSD?

1) The central bank that can pull off the larger rate hike this week, relative to the other central bank, could see its currency strengthen.

E.g. If the Fed does trigger a 100bps hike, while the BOE only does 50bps, then we should see a lower GBPUSD.

2) Also, it could well depend on which central bank signals that it has more rate hikes in the pipeline.

As things stand, here are the forecasted peaks for US vs. UK interest rates:

  • Fed’s forecasted peak = around 4.5% by March 2023
    (when markets think, for now, that the Fed will be done with its rate hikes).

    That’s about 190 basis points more from the current 2.5%, excluding this week’s anticipated hike.
  • BOE’s forecasted peak = around 4.5% by August 2023.
    That’s about 280 basis points higher than the current 1.75%, excluding this week’s anticipated hike.

Depending on the latest policy clues out of either the Fed or the BOE, the central bank with the higher forecasted peak (again, relative to the other) could see more currency strength this week.

E.g. If the Fed says it has a lot more room to hike US interest rates, while the Bank of England cites worries about raising rates too much for fear of dragging the UK economy into a protracted recession, such contrasting policy signals should lend itself to more GBPUSD declines.

Where to next for GBPUSD?

From a technical perspective, GBPUSD appears due for a technical rebound, seeing as its 14-day relative strength index  is on the cusp of breaking below the 30 threshold that denotes ‘oversold’ conditions (refer to above chart)

If so, any rebound for GBPUSD is likely to meet strong resistance around the following levels:

  • 1.160 = 21-day simple moving average (SMA)
  • 1.17382 = previous cycle high

To the downside, it’s tough to detect notable support levels in sub-1.14 territory, given the scattered price action from back in the mid-1980s when such levels were last seen.

However, at the time of writing, markets are predicting a greater-than-even chance (53%) that GBPUSD will remain below 1.14 for the next one-week period.

Some segments of the markets are even forecasting a 62% chance of GBPUSD touching levels as low as 1.125 over the same period!

Using a fundamental lens, markets are very much poised to react to the latest policy moves and clues out of the Fed and BOE in dictating how GBPUSD will perform this week.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Murrey Math Lines 19.09.2022 (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, EURUSD is trading below the 200-day Moving Average to indicate a possible descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to test 3/8, break it, and then continue falling to reach the support at 2/8. Still, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance at 4/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and grow towards 5/8.

EURUSDH4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue trading downwards.

EURUSD_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, GBPUSD is also trading below the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating a descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to break the support at 1/8 and continue falling to reach 0/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance at 2/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and resume growing towards 3/8.

GBPUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue its decline.

GBPUSD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 19.09.2022 (USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming a Hanging Man reversal pattern close to the resistance level, USDCAD may reverse in the form of a new descending impulse. In this case, the downside correctional target may be at 1.3225. Later, the market may rebound from this level and resume growing. However, an alternative scenario implies that the asset may grow to reach 1.3370 and continue the uptrend without testing the support area.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, AUDUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the support area. At the moment, the asset is reversing in the form of a new rising impulse. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance level at 0.6740. After testing the level, the price may rebound from it and resume the descending tendency. At the same time, the opposite scenario implies that the price may fall to reach 0.6640 and continue the downtrend without any pullbacks up to resistance level.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern not far from the support area. At the moment, USDCHF may reverse in the form of a new ascending wave. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance level at 0.9750. After testing this level, the price may break it and continue trading upwards. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, in which the asset may correct to reach the support area at 0.9620 and continue the ascending tendency only after the pullback.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.09.19

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 0.9995
  • Prev Close: 1.0014
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.19 %

The annualized Consumer Price Index in the Eurozone reached 9.1% (vs. 8.9% in July). A year earlier, it was 3.0%. Inflation in the Eurozone shows no signs of slowing down thus far. ECB member Nagel said Friday that the ECB would continue to raise rates to control inflation. Another ECB official, Ren, also agrees that the ECB needs to keep raising rates.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 0.9971, 0.9912.
  • Resistance levels: 1.0111, 1.0162, 1.0230

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. On Friday, the price formed a false breakdown area below the level of 0.9971. Now this zone can be used to search for buy trades, but with confirmation. The MACD indicator has become positive, with a slight buying pressure. Sell trades can be considered from resistance levels of 1.0111 or 1.0162.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 0.9912 and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1462
  • Prev Close: 1.1418
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.38 %

The UK Retail Sales Data released Friday underscored that consumers are struggling. According to the Office for National Statistics, retail sales fell by 1.6% in August, continuing a downward trend since the summer of 2021. The British pound remains under pressure ahead of this week’s decision by England’s Central Bank. In turn, the UK Central Bank is in an awkward situation, as it will announce its decision one day before new Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unveils an emergency mini-budget. Analysts expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 0.5% this week, the last rate hike in the UK this year.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1400
  • Resistance levels: 1.1449, 1.1626, 1.1693, 1.1816, 1.1901, 1.1994, 1.2035, 1.2167

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame has changed to bearish. At the moment, the price is trading below the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is in the negative area, but there are signs of divergence. It is possible that the price is now forming a false-breakdown area, which can be used as support if the price again consolidates above the level of 1.1449. Sell trades are better to consider on the intraday time frames, and the nearest resistance is 1.1626.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out of the 1.1693 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 143.41
  • Prev Close: 142.91
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.34 %

Japan will release inflation data this week, and the Core Consumer Price Index (which excludes food and energy prices) is expected to rise from 2.4% to 2.7% in annual terms. But analysts are confident that rising inflation in Japan will not affect the Japanese yen much. That’s because there is a consensus that the Bank of Japan will not change policy at its meeting later this week. After all, the inflation Japan is experiencing is the “wrong” inflation. This inflation is not caused by an increase in monetary circulation due to economic growth but by a combination of higher global costs and higher import prices due to a weak currency. While raising rates would help reduce some of the impacts of inflation, it would damage an economy that is already not very healthy. Therefore, the Bank of Japan will continue to seek further easing.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 142.57, 141.77, 141.00, 139.61, 138.78, 137.65, 136.80, 135.20
  • Resistance levels: 144.21, 145.00

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price is trading at the level of moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 142.57, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered on intraday time frames from the resistance level of 144.21 or 145.00, but only with additional confirmation since the USD/JPY is fundamentally inclined to grow.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 141.00, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3226
  • Prev Close: 1.3263
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.28 %

The Canadian dollar fell to its lowest level in nearly two years as investors worldwide assessed the deteriorating economic outlook and returned to haven currencies such as the US dollar. Persistently high US inflation increases the likelihood that the country’s Central Bank will have to raise interest rates even more aggressively than before. Another reason for the relative weakness of the Canadian dollar is the decline in commodity prices such as oil and gold. All else being equal, a higher interest rate increases the value of the national currency because foreign investors find it more profitable to put their money there: they get a higher return for it. Suppose the Fed’s rate rises to 4.5% next year, as investors expect. In that case, that is much higher than the Bank of Canada is likely to be able to raise, so the gap between the two countries’ currencies will widen, which is already putting pressure on the Canadian dollar.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3220, 1.3053, 1.2990, 1.2958, 1.2936, 1.2900
  • Resistance levels: 1.3326

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are the first signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3220. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3326, but only after an additional confirmation in the form of a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.2990 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
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By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

COT Forex Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen, British Pound Sterling & Euro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Japanese Yen & British Pound Sterling

The COT currency market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Euro (24,512 contracts) with the Mexican peso (4,079 contracts) and the Brazilian real (2,093 contracts) also showing a positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Japanese yen (-22,503 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-17,654 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (-5,485 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,268 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,555 contracts), Australian dollar (-1,350 contracts), Bitcoin (-1,196 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-438 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies this week was the further deterioration of the Japanese yen speculative positions. The yen speculator bets have now fallen for five straight weeks and by a total of -55,660 contracts over that period. This recent weakness followed an improvement in the yen positions in ten out of the previous thirteen weeks through August 9th. The overall speculator standing this week has dipped to the most bearish level of the past fourteen weeks, dating back to June 7th. The USDJPY currency pair has continued to see the dollar surge against the yen with the USDJPY above the 142.90 exchange rate to end the week. The pair has hit a high right below the 145.00 level for two straight weeks which is the highest exchange rate for the dollar versus the yen since September of 1998.

The British pound sterling speculator positions fell for a third consecutive week this week. The sterling bets have now declined by a total of -40,120 contracts over the past three weeks to bring the overall standing to a 14-week low. The GBPUSD currency pair has also dropped to a multi-decade low against the US dollar with the pound hitting a 37-year low this week. The GBPUSD closed the week just above the 1.1400 exchange rate after falling in four out of the past five weeks.

On the positive side of the COT data this week is the Euro. The European common currency bounced back this week with a strong +24,512 contracts and has now risen for two straight weeks. This recent improvement has taken the overall speculator standing to a level of just -11,837 contracts. With the EURUSD currency pair trading virtually at parity as it closed the week at the 1.0017 exchange rate, it is an interesting situation trying to read the large trader positioning. The speculators, especially in currencies, usually exhibit trend following behavior and would be expected to have a position of at least -100,000 contracts in this type of environment.

This could mean the speculators feel that the parity level will be close to the bottom for this pair and it is too risky to add to the short positioning. Or, the speculator short positioning could start to rise if the pair keeps its downtrend below parity. One thing for sure is that there are a huge amount of positions open in the market currently. The open interest level this week of 742,244 contracts is in the 99th percentile of the past three years. We know from open interest analysis that many times turning points coincide with peaks in open interest. However, with a possible recession for the Eurozone on the way combined with strong inflationary pressures and a potential energy crisis from the Russia-Ukraine war, the fundamental backdrop is very cloudy. It will undoubtedly take some time but will be very interesting to see how the large trader positioning and situation resolves itself.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-13-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index62,0779335,66984-38,380152,71146
EUR742,244100-11,83731-11,4237323,26013
GBP303,965100-68,0861187,32592-19,2397
JPY281,716100-80,6921998,29984-17,60718
CHF44,85331-7,3053816,51270-9,20726
CAD149,5563012,42553-13,476571,05132
AUD182,28769-57,8503167,01869-9,16830
NZD51,07946-5,301629,40845-4,1074
MXN208,40353-25,3811721,333824,04860
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL51,5824232,95383-34,577181,62484
Bitcoin13,0897412679-320019417

 


Strength Scores led by US Dollar Index & Brazilian Real

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Dollar Index (84.4 percent) and the Brazilian Real (82.8 percent) lead the currency markets near the top of their respective ranges and both are in bullish extreme positions (above 80 percent). Bitcoin (79.1 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores followed by the New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent).

On the downside, the British Pound Sterling (10.9 percent), Mexican Peso (16.5 percent) and the Japanese Yen (19.2 percent) all come in at the lowest strength levels and all three are in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).


Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (84.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (85.2 percent)
EuroFX (31.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (23.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (10.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (38.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (46.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (53.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (59.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (31.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (32.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (66.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (16.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (14.8 percent)
Brazil Real (82.8 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (80.7 percent)
Bitcoin (79.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (100.0 percent)

Brazilian Real leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Brazilian Real (33.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Swiss Franc (15.2 percent), Bitcoin (12.3 percent) and the Euro (8.3 percent) fill out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-23.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the British Pound Sterling (-10.0 percent) followed by the Canadian Dollar (-8.8 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (-6.3 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-6.1 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-6.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-7.4 percent)
EuroFX (8.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (1.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-10.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (3.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-23.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (2.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (18.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-8.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (2.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-1.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-6.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-1.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (0.2 percent)
Brazil Real (33.5 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (18.8 percent)
Bitcoin (12.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (25.2 percent)


Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 35,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,107 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:78.99.18.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.470.94.2
– Net Position:35,669-38,3802,711
– Gross Longs:48,9845,6475,342
– Gross Shorts:13,31544,0272,631
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.1 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.414.846.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.16.0-1.1

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,512 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.055.312.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.656.88.8
– Net Position:-11,837-11,42323,260
– Gross Longs:207,778410,36488,806
– Gross Shorts:219,615421,78765,546
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.472.812.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.3-7.6-0.1

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -68,086 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -17,654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,432 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.576.47.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.947.713.3
– Net Position:-68,08687,325-19,239
– Gross Longs:41,129232,34621,161
– Gross Shorts:109,215145,02140,400
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.992.47.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.09.9-7.0

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -80,692 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -22,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.075.48.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.640.514.5
– Net Position:-80,69298,299-17,607
– Gross Longs:39,323212,37523,186
– Gross Shorts:120,015114,07640,793
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.283.617.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.423.4-20.5

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,037 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.260.220.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.523.441.4
– Net Position:-7,30516,512-9,207
– Gross Longs:7,70426,9889,355
– Gross Shorts:15,00910,47618,562
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.069.826.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.2-10.82.6

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 12,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,910 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.244.720.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.953.720.0
– Net Position:12,425-13,4761,051
– Gross Longs:48,10266,86630,933
– Gross Shorts:35,67780,34229,882
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.357.532.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.814.1-18.3

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -57,850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.066.012.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.829.317.1
– Net Position:-57,85067,018-9,168
– Gross Longs:29,218120,39322,049
– Gross Shorts:87,06853,37531,217
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.268.930.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.83.7-7.3

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,555 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.153.84.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.535.312.9
– Net Position:-5,3019,408-4,107
– Gross Longs:17,94927,4582,498
– Gross Shorts:23,25018,0506,605
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.5 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.444.94.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.37.0-9.5

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,079 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,460 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.842.83.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:62.032.61.6
– Net Position:-25,38121,3334,048
– Gross Longs:103,77289,2607,469
– Gross Shorts:129,15367,9273,421
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.581.760.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.00.37.2

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,953 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:81.812.06.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.979.03.1
– Net Position:32,953-34,5771,624
– Gross Longs:42,1926,1863,203
– Gross Shorts:9,23940,7631,579
– Long to Short Ratio:4.6 to 10.2 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.817.583.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.5-33.2-0.8

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:78.44.27.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:77.56.65.7
– Net Position:126-320194
– Gross Longs:10,268546944
– Gross Shorts:10,142866750
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.6 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.149.017.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.3-27.4-3.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT excel data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

 

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 16.09.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After a mighty decline to 0.9955, the pair is consolidating around 0.9988. Today it may drop to the lower border of the range at 0.9955, and with a breakaway of this level downwards, a pathway to 0.9800 will open.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The pair has formed a consolidation range around 1.1535, and today it has almost broke through this border. A wave of decline might form to 1.1360. After this level is reached, a link of correction may form to 1.1480, and later a decline to 1.1340.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The pair is forming a consolidation range around 143.25. Today the range might extend to 144.00. If it is broken away upwards, growth to 144.99 will become possible. And in the case of an escape from the range downwards, the pair might reach 141.99, from where the trend might continue to 140.99.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The pair performed a wave of growth to 0.9600 and corrected to 0.9555. Today the market is forming a new structure of growth to 0.9633, around which level a consolidation range may form. With an escape upwards, a pathway to 0.9714 will open. The goal is local.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The pair performed a wave of decline to 0.6727, and today the market is forming a consolidation range around this level. With an escape upwards, a link of correction to 0.6800 may follow. And with a breakaway downwards, the pair might proceed to 0.6606. The goal is local.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Oil completed a link of a growing wave to 96.00. Today the market corrected to 90.25. At the moment, the market is consolidating above this level. We expect an escape upwards as soon as the new wave of growth to 97.00 starts.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold performed a structure of decline to 1693.40. At the moment, the market has formed a consolidation range around this level; with an escape downwards, the wave of decline will be extended to 1656.22. After this level is reached, a wave of growth to 1695.00 might start.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

The stock index completed a wave of decline to 3913.0. At the moment, the market has formed a consolidation range above this level and today escaped it downwards. Practically, a pathway to 3755.5 is open. And after this one is reached, the index might correct to 3955.5 (a test from below).

S&P 500
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.