InvestMacro

As of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.07%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.67%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 2.28%. Easing trade tensions between the US and China and President Trump’s assurances that he will not remove Fed Chairman Jerome Powell continue to boost sentiment.

The first-quarter earnings reporting season is in full swing. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, market consensus expects first-quarter annualized first-quarter earnings growth of 6.7% for S&P 500 stocks, down from expectations of 11.1% in early November. Boeing (BA) rose more than 6% and topped the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting first-quarter revenue of $19.50 billion, better than the consensus expectations of $19.37 billion. Intel (INTC) closed higher by more than 6% after Bloomberg reported that the company plans to cut more than 20% of its workforce to streamline operations. Tesla (TSLA) shares rose by 5.4% after CEO Elon Musk announced that he will significantly reduce his involvement in the government to focus on running his companies.

The Canadian dollar weakened to US$1.39, down from a six-month high of US$1.38 on April 22, as it came under pressure from a recovering US dollar. Meanwhile, the IMF’s downgrade of Canada’s 2025 GDP expectations to 1.4% has renewed concerns about domestic demand, limiting Lonnie’s upside potential. And the Bank of Canada’s decision to keep the benchmark rate at 2.75% reflects caution amid the unclear outlook for US tariffs, which could either support sustainable growth with inflation around 2% or, if tariffs intensify, create the risk of recession and higher inflation.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 3.14%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 2.13% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.52%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.90%. European stocks closed sharply higher on Wednesday, following strong momentum in stock markets around the world after the US presidential administration signaled that tariffs against China are likely to be reduced or eliminated soon.

WTI crude prices fell below $62.6 a barrel on Wednesday, down 9% since early April, amid the likelihood that OPEC+ will continue to increase supply in the coming months. Key OPEC+ member Kazakhstan has said it will put national interests ahead of OPEC+ rules, signaling increased production for a key pool of consumers and raising tensions between cartel members as many countries fight to keep production below their quotas. That prompted individual cartel members to call for another production increase in June, adding to surprise plans to raise output three times faster than expected in May.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.89% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 0.02%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 2.37%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed positive 1.33%.

Consumer sentiment in New Zealand rose to a 4-month high. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index rose by 5 points to 98.3 in April, the highest reading since December, reinforcing a recovery that had begun to falter. The rise in the index was broad-based, with the current Conditions Index and future Conditions Index rising by 6 and 4 points, respectively.

The Dow Jones (US30) Index was up 2.66% at Tuesday’s close. The S&P500 Index (US500) added 2.51%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) increased by 2.63%. US stocks rose on Tuesday as hopes of an easing trade war between the US and China lifted investor sentiment after a sharp drop the previous day. Meanwhile, concerns over President Trump’s attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell persisted, contributing to recent market volatility.

Technology stocks led the rise, with Tesla shares up 4.6% ahead of its earnings release, although the company has fallen 40% in the period since. On the earnings side, General Electric shares jumped 6.1% after the release of results, while Verizon shares added 0.6% after the earnings release.

Producer prices for manufactured goods (a leading indicator of consumer inflation) in Canada rose by 0.5% month-over-month in March 2025, following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in February and above market forecasts expecting a 0.3% increase. This marked the sixth consecutive monthly increase. Excluding energy and petroleum products, CPI rose by 1%. On an annualized basis, producer prices rose by 4.7%.

The IMF has warned that rising tariffs in the US mark the start of a new global era of slowing growth. President Trump has imposed massive import duties since January, triggering retaliatory tariffs and raising trade barriers to levels not seen since the Great Depression. The IMF has cut its global growth forecast 2024 to 2.8% from 3.3% and expects further weakening through 2026. The US will be hit hardest, with growth in 2025 falling to 1.8 % from 2.7 %. Mexico, China, and the Eurozone will also feel the effects. Although Trump claims the tariffs will revive US manufacturing, the IMF believes the real cause of job losses is automation, not trade. It warns that tariffs will hurt innovation and competitiveness in the long term.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.41%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.56% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.72%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.64% higher yesterday. On Tuesday, European stocks reversed early losses. They closed higher, benefiting from a rebound in US stocks as markets continued to assess how the risks of reduced trade relations with the US could affect European corporate giants. Automakers were among the session’s top gainers, with Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Volkswagen adding more than 2%. Banks, meanwhile, rose steadily, with BNP Paribas, Intesa Sanpaolo, and ING adding around 1.5%. However, UniCredit fell nearly -3% after the Italian government placed restrictions on the lender’s bid to acquire Banco BPM. On the earnings side, L’Oreal shares rose more than 6% after posting strong results.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) are down nearly 1% to $32.30 an ounce on Tuesday as investors lock in profits after the precious metal’s strong rally. The pullback came after recent gains driven by safe-haven demand amid growing concerns about the impact of escalating trade tensions on the global economy. Market sentiment worsened due to stalled trade talks between the US and China, with Beijing accusing Washington of abusing tariffs and warning other countries against unilateral deals.

WTI crude prices rose above $64 a barrel on Wednesday, extending gains of more than 2% from the previous session, helped by new US sanctions and a sharp decline in crude inventories. The US has imposed new restrictions on a key Iranian figure supplying liquefied natural gas and crude oil. Meanwhile, industry data showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels last week, which could be the largest decline since November.

Asian markets traded flat. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.17% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.33%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.78%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed 0.03%.

Malaysia’s annual inflation rate eased to 1.4% in March 2025 from 1.5% in the previous month, the lowest since February 2021 and below market forecasts of 1.6%. Core consumer prices, excluding volatile fresh food and administrative expenses, rose to 1.9% y/y, holding steady for the second month and remaining at the lowest level in six months.

Singapore’s annual inflation rate for March 2025 was 0.9%, unchanged from the previous month but slightly below market expectations of 1%. The rate remained at its lowest level since February 2021.

As of Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 1.33%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.13%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed at opening levels. The US stocks closed mixed ahead of the Good Friday holiday as investors weighed trade talks and interest rate uncertainty. A decline in weekly jobless claims indicates a resilient labor market, although attention remains focused on trade talks and monetary policy signals. The US initial jobless claims fell by 9,000 from the previous week to 215,000 in the second week of April, contrary to market expectations of a 1,000 increase to 225,000, the lowest in two months.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.49%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.60%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.19%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.01%. Frankfurt’s DAX Index remained in negative territory after the ECB cut rates in an expected move to cushion the economy from tariff-related tensions.

The ECB cut all three key interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the main refinancing rate to 2.40%, the deposit rate to 2.25%, and the marginal lending facility to 2.65%, as expected. The decision reflects growing confidence that inflation is on track for a sustained return to the 2% target. The ECB acknowledged that growth prospects have weakened and emphasized that further action will depend on the data. European markets will be closed for Easter through Monday and will reopen on Tuesday, April 22.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 3.5% on Thursday to settle at $64.70 a barrel, marking the second straight session of gains. The rise followed new US sanctions targeting Iran’s oil exports, adding to fears of a tightening global supply. The sanctions hit Iran’s oil sector and a refinery in China, increasing pressure on Tehran amid nuclear tensions. Supply concerns were further heightened after OPEC+ said it had received updated plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other countries for additional production cuts.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.35%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 0.20%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.61%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.78%. The recovery in Asian indices followed a rise in US futures after President Trump claimed “great progress” in talks aimed at helping Japan avoid a tariff hike. Investor sentiment was also boosted after Chinese President Xi Jinping called for regional unity and the creation of an “Asian family” during his tour of Southeast Asia.

The New Zealand dollar fell to US$0.593 on Friday, retreating from a five-month high and snapping a seven-day winning streak, as expectations of further easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand dampened momentum. This came despite stronger-than-expected first-quarter consumer inflation data, while core inflation figures declined. With price pressures contained and remaining within the RBNZ’s target range, markets still expect a rate cut in May and a reduction in the cash rate to 2.75% by the end of the year.

The Australian dollar slid to US$0.637 on Friday, breaking a seven-day winning streak in thin trading as local markets were closed due to the Good Friday holiday. The decline followed weaker-than-expected domestic employment data earlier in the week, which reinforced expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Malaysia’s economy grew by 4.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, compared to growth of 5% in the previous quarter. This is the slowest growth rate in a year, driven by weaker growth in services (5.2% vs. 5.4% in Q4), construction (14.5% vs. 20.7%), and manufacturing (4.2% vs. 4.4%). In quarterly terms, the economy contracted by 3.7% after growing by 2.7% in Q4.