InvestMacro

On Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.01% (for the week, +1.93%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.79% (for the week, +1.52%). The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 1.04% (for the week, +1.47%). All three stock indices closed at new record highs on Monday, after soft US inflation data fueled expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later in the year and injected optimism into investor sentiment. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September (+0.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y) was slightly weaker than market expectations (+0.4% m/m and +3.1% y/y). Furthermore, the core CPI report for September (+0.2% m/m and +3.0% y/y) was also weaker than market expectations (+0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y). A decline in inflation “without sacrificing growth” is perceived as the ideal scenario for a bull market.

On the corporate front, shares of AMD and IBM jumped by 7.5% and 8.8% respectively, following the announcement of the successful launch of IBM’s quantum error correction algorithm on AMD chips, a major step for the development of quantum computing that sparked a positive reaction across the sector. Intel rose by 1.6% after returning to profitability and publishing an optimistic prognosis. The banking sector also strengthened amid expectations that monetary policy easing would stimulate lending activity.

US President Donald Trump stated on Saturday that he is raising tariffs on goods from Canada by another 10%, over and above what they currently pay. The US Department of Commerce, the White House, and the Canadian Prime Minister’s Office have not yet commented on the situation. Experts note that this move could complicate bilateral trade relations, especially amidst existing disputes.

European equity markets were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.13% (for the week, +0.85%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.01% (for the week, +0.15%), Spain’s IBEX35 Index (ES35) gained 0.44% (for the week, +0.79%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.70% higher (for the week, +3.11%).

WTI crude oil prices reached their highest level in over two weeks on Monday, as an improved outlook for a US-China trade deal raised expectations for an increase in global energy demand. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that negotiations with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng had led to “substantial progress,” which would be solidified at a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping at the end of the week. Beijing confirmed that a preliminary consensus was reached on a number of key topics. Oil prices received additional support from supply concerns regarding Russia, following the sanctions imposed last week against Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for about 50% of oil production in Russia and around 25% of its exports.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.00%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 3.23%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 1.07%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.07% for the past week. Asian stocks opened with solid gains on Monday. Negotiators from the US and China stated that they had reached a consensus on key issues, including export controls. Further support for the market came from data published on Monday showing that China’s industrial profits grew by 21.6% y/y in September, the fastest growth since November 2023, strengthening investor confidence in a sustained recovery of the industrial sector.

In Australia, investors focused on the anticipated Q3 inflation data and the monthly CPI for September, which could be pivotal for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) next steps. Analysts estimate that the RBA is close to achieving its inflation and employment targets, but new data might reveal persistent price pressures. If the figures confirm sustained growth in consumer prices, it could lead the central bank to refrain from further policy easing at its meeting next week.

The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.31% by the end of Thursday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.58%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 0.89%. US stock indices advanced on Thursday, bolstered by a rally in energy stocks after WTI crude oil prices jumped more than 5%. The sharp rise in oil quotes followed the US decision to blacklist Russia’s largest oil producers, raising fears about a reduction in global crude supply.

The US government shutdown continues into its fourth week. Due to the shutdown, the release of official reports is frozen, including weekly data on initial jobless claims for the past four weeks and the September employment report. The September consumer price report, which was scheduled for release last Wednesday, will only be published this Friday if the government resumes operations. Economists note that the prolonged shutdown could severely impact consumer spending and economic growth in Q4, increasing pressure on the Fed and the White House to quickly resolve the budget crisis.

According to preliminary data, Canadian retail sales in September 2025 fell by 0.7% compared to the previous month, marking the third-largest drop this year. This followed a 1% growth in August.

European stock markets rose on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) advanced by 0.23%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.23%, the Spanish IBEX35 Index (ES35) gained 0.07%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.67%.

Silver (XAG/USD) fell to $48.6 per ounce on Friday, losing more than 6% over the week. Investors were booking profits after the rapid rise in recent weeks. Earlier, silver prices had reached multi-year highs amid strong demand for safe-haven assets and optimism about long-term industrial use.

WTI crude oil prices hit a two-week high on Thursday. The increase was driven by the US and the European Union intensifying sanctions against Russian energy and infrastructure, which caused severe disruptions to Russia’s oil production and exports and fueled concerns about a potential reduction in global supply. The new restrictions limited Russia’s access to offshore drilling technology and equipment, which could lead to a long-term decline in production.

US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) fell below $3.4 per MMBtu on Thursday amid EIA data pointing to excess supply. For the week ending October 17, the storage injection volume was 87 billion cubic feet (bcf), significantly exceeding market expectations (83 bcf). As a result, total inventories are now substantially above normal (4.5% above the five-year average), creating a bearish sentiment in the market.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.35%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.24%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.72%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.03%. Investor sentiment improved after the White House confirmed that US President Donald Trump would meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on October 30. On the mainland market, stocks rose for a second consecutive session after the Chinese Communist Party pledged to step up measures to stimulate domestic demand, improve living standards, and support the country’s technological independence. In Hong Kong, data showed that annual inflation remained at 1.1% in September, with authorities noting stable prices and a moderate inflation outlook.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Friday urged Asian countries to reduce non-tariff barriers and strengthen regional trade integration to boost the region’s resilience to US tariffs. The report stated that trade remains a key driver of the region’s economic growth, and China plays a central role in global manufacturing supply chains, which, however, makes Asia vulnerable to geopolitical and trade risks.

The Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.71% by the end of Wednesday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.53%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed lower by 0.93%. Investors evaluated mixed corporate earnings reports and new trade risks following reports that the White House is considering restricting the export of American software to China.

Among corporate results: Netflix (NFLX) lost 10% after publishing results that were pressured by a tax dispute in Brazil. Tesla (TSLA) fell by 1.4% ahead of its earnings report following reports that some new models might suddenly lose battery charge.

The Mexican peso (MXN) continues to be in demand among investors, despite a slowdown in economic activity. Even after the latest key rate cut, the country continues to offer one of the highest real yields among emerging markets, which supports the carry trade and stimulates the inflow of foreign portfolio investments.

European stock markets traded mixed on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE40) dropped by 0.74%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed lower by 0.63%, the Spanish IBEX35 Index (ES35) rose by 0.09%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.93%. The EU is preparing to approve the 19th package of sanctions against Russia, while the US is also preparing to strengthen sanctions due to Russia’s unwillingness to enter into peace negotiations.

WTI crude oil prices rose by more than 2% on Wednesday and gained another 3% on Thursday following reports of new US sanctions against Russian oil companies. Washington imposed a ban on cooperation with Rosneft and Lukoil, increasing pressure on Moscow for refusing to participate in peace negotiations on Ukraine. These companies account for about half of Russia’s oil exports, and energy export revenues form about a quarter of Russia’s federal budget.

Asian markets declined yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.02%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.01%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.94%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.70%.

Bank Indonesia (BI) unexpectedly left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.75% after its October 2025 meeting, following three consecutive cuts. The decision reflects the central bank’s confidence that inflation in 2025-2026 will remain within the target range of 1.5-3%, supported by a stable Rupiah exchange rate. According to the latest data, Indonesia’s GDP grew to 5.12% y/y in Q2, the fastest pace in two years, while annual inflation accelerated to 2.65% in September, the highest since May 2024.

The US stock indices closed higher for the third consecutive session. By the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) had grown by 0.47%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.01%. The technological Nasdaq Index (US100) closed lower by 0.16%. A strong start to the corporate earnings season outweighed the lingering uncertainty surrounding US-China trade relations. Overall, more than 75% of companies that have already reported quarterly results exceeded analysts’ prognoses, which supported the overall rally on Wall Street.

Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.4% year-over-year in September, compared to an outlook of 2.3%, which was the highest reading since February. The median core inflation remained near a one-year high at 3.1%, surpassing the consensus of 3%, which narrows the space for policy easing by the Bank of Canada. On the trade front, the situation was supported by reports that a US-Canada trade agreement, covering steel, aluminum, and energy, might be ready for approval by leaders at the upcoming APEC summit.

European stock markets mostly rose on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) grew by 0.29%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.64%, Spain’s IBEX35 Index (ES35) fell by 0.39%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.25%.

WTI oil prices rose to $57.4 per barrel on Tuesday. However, the supply surplus has not disappeared. According to Vortexa, the volume of crude oil and condensate in tankers worldwide reached a record 1.24 billion barrels. The IEA warned that the global oil market could face a record surplus next year as OPEC+ and other producers increase output volumes even amid slowing demand growth.

Asian markets grew confidently yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.27%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) grew by 1.79%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 0.65%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.70%.

Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi instructed her cabinet to prepare a package of economic stimulus measures to ease the burden of household expenses. Against this backdrop, the government is increasing fiscal stimulus to support the economy, including energy subsidies, payments to low-income families, and tax breaks for businesses affected by tariffs. This also suggests that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will not tighten its monetary policy in the near future.

Malaysia’s annual inflation rate rose to 1.5% in September 2025 from 1.3% in the previous month, marking the highest reading since February and slightly exceeding market estimates of 1.4%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile prices of fresh food and regulated prices, rose to 2.1% year-over-year, the highest reading since October 2023. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.2% after a 0.1% increase in the previous five months, indicating the fastest growth in seven months.

By the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) had grown by 1.12%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 1.07%. The technological Nasdaq index (US100) closed higher by 1.30%. On Monday, US stock indices closed with notable gains amid optimism surrounding upcoming corporate reports and a new wave of support for the banking sector, while investors continued to assess the prospects for easing trade restrictions between the US and China. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones reached new historical highs.

Wells Fargo and Citigroup jumped by 3.3% and 2.3% respectively, and other major banks also strengthened noticeably as investors reassessed the credit stress risks that had been pressuring the sector since the beginning of the month. Apple’s stock rose by 4.4%, setting a new historical high amid signals of high iPhone 17 sales in the US and China.

European stock markets went mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) grew by 1.80%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.39%, Spain’s IBEX35 Index (ES35) rose by 1.46%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.52%. European stocks in the financial and defense sectors showed strong growth, but BNP Paribas dropped sharply after a US court ruling. BNP Paribas plummeted by 7.7% after a US court ordered the bank to pay $20.75 million in connection with alleged ties to war crimes in Sudan.

On Monday, EU energy ministers supported a plan to phase out imports of Russian oil and gas by January 2028. The bill must still be negotiated with the European Parliament before final adoption. The goal of the initiative is to reduce Russia’s energy revenues, which help finance its war against Ukraine. Russia currently supplies about 12% of the EU’s gas, whereas the share was 45% before the 2022 invasion. Among the countries that still import Russian gas are Hungary, France, and Belgium.

On Tuesday, WTI oil prices continued to fall for the second consecutive session. Market pressure was intensified by fears of a global supply surplus and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming trade negotiations between the US and China. The volume of oil in marine transit rose to a record 1.24 billion barrels, indicating a worsening supply-demand imbalance and supporting bearish sentiment.

Asian markets rose steadily yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) grew by 3.37%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.74%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 2.42%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.41%. Positive sentiment was supported by a strong rally in US futures after President Donald Trump stated that he might lower tariffs on Chinese goods if Beijing took reciprocal steps, including resuming purchases of US soybeans. Optimism was reinforced by expectations of additional stimulus from Chinese authorities following the release of Q3 GDP data, which showed growth of 4.8%  the lowest in a year. This week, China’s political leadership is holding meetings to prepare a new Five-Year Plan ahead of the December Politburo and Central Economic Work Conference meetings. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Hong Kong rose to 3.9%. Looking ahead, authorities expect that certain sectors will continue to face labor market difficulties due to structural changes in the economy and external risks.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar broke its two-day rally, despite optimism fueled by a breakthrough in the trade agreement between the US and Australia. The two countries recently signed a critical minerals partnership.

The New Zealand dollar fell on Tuesday, losing its gains from the previous session amid expectations of further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Although third-quarter inflation data showed price growth reaching a yearly maximum of 3%, which is at the upper limit of the RBNZ’s target range, the bank’s preferred inflation indicator remained at its lowest level since the beginning of 2021, and other core indicators also point to restrained price pressure. Futures swaps fully price in a 25 basis point rate cut in November.

US indices finished Friday’s trading session higher, with investors reacting positively to statements from President Donald Trump that eased concerns about a further escalation of the US-China trade conflict. The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.52% (weekly gain of +1.08%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.53% (weekly gain of +0.63%). The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed up 0.65% (weekly gain of +0.78%). Trump stated that his proposed 100% tariffs on Chinese goods would be a temporary measure, while simultaneously accusing Beijing of increasing trade tensions. He also confirmed that a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping is “most likely to happen at the end of the month,” which market participants viewed as a potential step toward de-escalation. Additional support was provided by the recovery in regional bank stocks after a sharp drop the day before.

On Friday, Bitcoin fell to around $106,000, reaching its lowest level since early July, amid a new wave of risk aversion across global markets. Investor sentiment worsened following new signs of credit stress among US regional banks, which reignited fears of a possible banking crisis similar to the events of 2023 when the Federal Reserve intervened to stabilize the financial system. The market is also under pressure from escalating US-China trade tensions, a protracted US government shutdown, and rising budget concerns, all of which reduce risk appetite among traders.

European stock markets mostly declined on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.82% (weekly loss of -2.22%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.18% (weekly gain of +2.70%), Spain’s IBEX35 Index (ES35) dropped by 0.29% (weekly gain of +0.43%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.86% (weekly loss of -0.77%). In September 2025, the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone was 2.2%, slightly above the 2.0% recorded in the previous three months and just above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target. Services inflation continued to rise, climbing from 3.1% in August to 3.2%. The rise in the core measure indicates persistent domestic inflationary pressure, which will compel the ECB to maintain rates for the next few months. On Friday, S&P Global Ratings unexpectedly downgraded France’s credit rating by one notch, from AA- to A+, and assigned a negative outlook, citing increased political uncertainty.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 0.1% on Friday. Despite the small daily gain, this marked the third consecutive week of decline, resulting in a nearly 3% weekly drop amid oversupply concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. Fears of rising supply intensified after the International Energy Agency (IEA) expected an increase in the global oil surplus by 2026, and US data showed a sharp rise in inventories over the past week. US production hit a record 13.636 million barrels per day, and demand for storage in key logistics hubs increased significantly. This indicates that market participants expect the supply surplus to persist and potentially pressure prices in the near term.

Silver (XAG/USD) retreated from record highs amid improved investor sentiment. On Friday, silver prices fell by more than 4%. The pressure on quotes came from improved risk appetite after President Donald Trump attempted to mitigate concerns about the US-China trade confrontation. Despite the correction, silver ended the week up by more than 3%, marking its ninth consecutive positive week. The metal had previously been supported by concerns over the stability of the US financial system, triggered by credit fraud scandals in regional banks, which spurred demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, a liquidity crisis in the London silver market caused a deficit in physical supplies, amplifying global demand and forcing some investment funds to temporarily halt the inflow of funds into their silver ETFs.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) rose by nearly 3%, surpassing the $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) level. However, despite the daily recovery, the price declined for the second consecutive week. Pressure on quotes remains due to expectations of mild weather and high gas inventories, which offset the effect of reduced production and near-record LNG export levels. Higher production in previous months allowed companies to build up reserves, which now exceed the five-year average by approximately 4%.

Asian markets traded mixed last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.91%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped by 1.51%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) recorded a positive result of 0.85%.

A key vote to elect a new Prime Minister is scheduled in the Japanese parliament on Tuesday. Takaichi, the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is negotiating with the right-wing Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) after breaking a more than two-decade partnership with the Komeito party in early October. On Friday, LDP leadership stated that negotiations for a potential coalition are progressing with substantial headway, increasing the chances of forming a stable government. Takaichi previously opposed raising interest rates by the Bank of Japan, and he is expected to maintain this stance as the new Prime Minister, which could influence the country’s monetary policy and negatively impact the dynamics of the yen.