Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 37

Canadian dollar declines after inflation data. Investors take profits ahead of the Fed meeting

By the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.27%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.13%. The Nasdaq (US100) Technology Index closed down 0.07%. US stocks edged lower on Tuesday as investors took profits ahead of the highly anticipated September Federal Reserve meeting. Traders widely expect the Fed to cut the rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, which would be the first cut since December. Meanwhile, positive retail sales data for August signaled resilient consumer spending despite stagnant inflation and a softening labor market. Investors were also watching developments between the US and China. Progress on trade and a new TikTok framework boosted sentiment and contributed to a rise in Oracle shares.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.38 per US dollar in September, reaching monthly highs after domestic data reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada would take a cautious approach to rate cuts. The core Consumer Price Index in August rose by 1.9% year-on-year – below the consensus of 2.0%. However, key metrics, specifically the average and median values, remain near 3.0%, indicating persistent underlying inflation after excluding volatile goods. These readings, along with signs of economic resilience, suggest that the Bank of Canada may keep policy restrictive for longer and decrease the likelihood of a rapid easing cycle; markets now expect only a modest 25 basis point rate cut at the next meeting.

European stock markets were mostly lower on Tuesday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 1.77%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.00%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) declined by 1.51%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negatively on Tuesday at 0.88%. On Tuesday, European stocks closed sharply lower, pressured by aggressive losses in the financial sector. Traders were cautious ahead of key monetary policy decisions from the Fed and the Bank of England this week, as well as trade talks between China and the US, while US President Trump begins his visit to the UK today. On the data front, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany surprisingly rose, while UK employment data continued to signal a slowdown in the labor market.

WTI crude oil prices rose more than 1.5% on Tuesday to $64.5 per barrel, continuing to climb on risks related to Russian supply. Ukraine launched another strike on oil refineries as part of a broader campaign targeting Russian energy infrastructure, including the Primorsk export hub. Goldman Sachs estimates that recent attacks have taken about 300,000 barrels per day of Russian refining capacity offline in August and early September. Reuters also reported that pipeline operators are restricting oil storage for producers, which is exacerbating the problem. Meanwhile, the EU is considering new sanctions, including against firms in India and China that facilitate Moscow’s oil trade.

The US natural gas prices rose to $3/MMBtu, the highest level in a week, amid falling production. The average output in September was 107.4 billion cubic feet per day, down from August’s record high of 108.3. However, inventory growth was limited by weak demand prognoses, ample storage capacity, and stagnant LNG exports. Gas inventories are about 6% above the seasonal average, and injections are expected to continue.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.30%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.50%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 0.03%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.28%.

On Wednesday, the New Zealand dollar fell to $0.597, ending a two-day rally as traders showed caution ahead of Thursday’s GDP data release. The economy is expected to have contracted by 0.3% in the June quarter, which would reinforce the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s dovish outlook. Markets now expect a 25 basis point rate cut at the October meeting, with rates expected to fall to 2.50% by early 2026.

The People’s Bank of China has released a draft rule aimed at easing restrictions on gold imports, proposing to expand the use of “reusable permits,” extend their validity from six to nine months, remove restrictions on use, and allow more ports to clear bullion. These measures also apply to exports, though permits are still rarely issued due to strict capital controls and the People’s Bank of China’s drive to build reserves. The move comes as China continues to buy gold for the ninth consecutive month, increasing its reserves to approximately 73.96 million troy ounces in August 2025.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,606.76 −8.52 (−0.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,757.90 −125.55 (−0.27%)

DAX (DE40) 23,329.24 −419.62 (−1.77%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,195.66 −81.37 (−0.88%)

USD Index 96.65 −0.65 (−0.67%)

News feed for: 2025.09.17

Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+3);
Canada BoC Rate Statement at 16:45 (GMT+3);
Canada BoC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Economic Projections at 21:00 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Sep

EUR/USD Hits Four-Year High: All Eyes on the Fed

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair surged to 1.1854 USD on Wednesday, reaching its highest level since September 2021. Investors are positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated interest rate decision, due later today.

Markets are almost fully pricing in a 25-basis-point cut, with 67 basis points of cumulative easing expected by year-end. These expectations are reinforced by recent labour market softening, despite inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target.

Significant attention will also be focused on the updated quarterly dot plot, which may offer critical insights into the future path of monetary policy.

The trading session is expected to be highly volatile.

On the data front, US retail sales rose in August for the third consecutive month, underscoring the resilience of consumer spending over the summer.

Broad-based USD weakness has driven the dollar lower against nearly all major currencies.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD formed a consolidation range around 1.1762 USD before breaking upward to complete an impulsive move to 1.1877 USD. The pair now appears poised for a corrective decline towards 1.1762 USD. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator: although the signal line remains above zero, it has reached overextended levels. This suggests that a near-term pullback is likely.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair completed its ascent to 1.1877 USD and is now forming a consolidation range below this level. A downward breakout is expected, with an initial decline towards 1.1762 USD likely. A brief rebound towards 1.1820 USD may follow. Selling pressure could then resume, with targets at 1.1630 USD and potentially 1.1550 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this bearish near-term bias, with its signal line positioned below 50 and trending downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The euro’s rally to multi-year highs reflects broad USD weakness and elevated expectations for Fed easing. However, technical indicators suggest the pair is overextended and due for a correction. Today’s Fed decision – particularly the tone of the statement and updated dot plot – will be crucial in determining whether this pullback deepens or becomes a buying opportunity. Traders should prepare for significant volatility following the release.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 Sep

USD/JPY Declines: Yen Gains Safe-Haven Appeal

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair fell for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, with the Japanese yen strengthening to around 147.19 JPY per US dollar. The move reflects broad-based USD weakness and growing expectations of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Markets are now pricing in a 25-basis-point cut from the Fed this week, with a total of 67 basis points’ easing anticipated through the remainder of the year. These expectations are reinforced by recent data pointing to a cooling labour market and moderating inflation.

The Bank of Japan is also set to meet this week and is widely expected to hold rates steady at 0.5%. Meanwhile, policymakers will need to evaluate the potential impact of US tariff policies on Japan’s export-dependent economy.

Upcoming economic releases are likely to show continued softness: both exports and imports are forecast to remain weak, while core CPI is expected to slow to 2.7% – the lowest level since November 2024.

Amid elevated global volatility, the yen is demonstrating relative strength, underscoring its role as a safe-haven asset.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY continues to trade within a consolidation range centred around 147.33 JPY, with recent extensions towards 148.14 JPY on the upside and 146.90 JPY on the downside. A further decline towards 146.30 JPY is possible. Should this level be reached, a corrective bounce towards 147.33 JPY may occur before another leg down towards 145.30 JPY. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and pointing firmly downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is following a clear downward move structure towards 146.76 JPY. The market has broken below its recent consolidation range, confirming the bearish momentum. Further declines towards 146.76 JPY are expected, with an extension towards 144.44 JPY likely. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line remains below 50 and is trending downward towards 20, reflecting strengthening selling pressure.

Conclusion

The yen is strengthening amid broad USD softness and safe-haven demand, with all eyes on this week’s Fed and BoJ meetings. While the BoJ is likely to remain on hold, the Fed’s dovish shift could further weigh on USD/JPY in the near term. Technically, the pair exhibits clear bearish momentum, with key support levels in focus. A break below 146.30 JPY may accelerate the decline towards deeper supports.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 Sep

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index is breaking price records again. In Thailand, there are plans to introduce a tax on gold trading in baht

By JustMarkets

On Monday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index rose by 0.11%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.47%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed up 0.94%, setting an all-time high. The US stocks closed higher, driven by a surge in technology shares. Tesla jumped by 3.6% after CEO Elon Musk reported purchasing about $1 billion in stock, his largest open-market purchase ever, while Alphabet gained 4.3%, reaching a $3 trillion valuation and boosting the communication services sector. Nvidia ended the session flat, paring losses after a Chinese regulator stated the company had violated antitrust law, and Texas Instruments fell 2.4% on news of a Chinese anti-dumping investigation into US analog chipmakers. Trade tensions also persisted as President Donald Trump signaled progress in US-China talks, including a potential deal related to TikTok, though risks from tariffs and tech restrictions remain.

The Mexican peso strengthened to 18.4 per US dollar, its strongest level since July 2024, as the US dollar weakened and Mexico’s macroeconomic indicators remained stable, increasing the attractiveness of peso-denominated assets. Banco de México is maintaining a tight policy and signaling careful calibration even amid moderate inflation. Higher real interest rate differentials compared to peer countries, sustained demand for forward markets, and Mexico’s strong trade ties with the US support demand for local securities, limiting capital outflows.

European stock markets were mostly up on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.21%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.92%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.57%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.07%. The DAX Index in Frankfurt experienced some volatility. Investors are awaiting decisions from major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of Canada. The US Central Bank is widely expected to cut rates by at least 25 basis points. Meanwhile, attention remains on France, as Fitch downgraded its credit rating, citing rising public debt and increasing political polarization, which raises concerns about the size of the upcoming budget deficit.

WTI crude oil prices rose nearly 1% to $63.3 per barrel on Monday, extending last week’s gains as traders weighed escalating Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy facilities against expectations of an impending supply surplus. Ukraine launched a major strike with over 360 drones, briefly causing a fire at the 355,000 bpd Kirishi oil refinery, just days after an attack on the Primorsk export terminal, which handles around 1 million bpd. Pressure on Moscow intensified after US President Donald Trump reaffirmed his willingness to impose massive sanctions on Russian oil if NATO allies cease their purchases, which could alter global energy flows.

On Tuesday, silver (XAG/USD) stabilized at around $42.5 per ounce, trading near its 14-year high as investors prepared for an expected US Federal Reserve rate cut this week. Markets are almost fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut on Wednesday, with 67 basis points of cuts projected by the end of the year. President Donald Trump also pressured Fed Chair Jerome Powell for a more significant cut, citing weakness in the housing market. Elsewhere, the central banks of Canada and China are expected to ease policy this week, while the central banks of Japan and the UK are likely to hold theirs unchanged. On the geopolitical front, US-China trade talks in Spain showed progress, and talks between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled for Friday. Meanwhile, industrial demand from solar energy, electric vehicles, and electronics continues to intensify pressure on the physical silver market, while supply constraints support prices.

Asian markets had a strong day. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.89%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 0.46%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.22%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative result of 0.13%.

The Bank of Thailand and the Ministry of Finance are considering introducing a tax on online gold trading in baht. Officials state the measure will limit gold exports and make holding it in the country more expensive, as the influx of dollars from gold shipments has strengthened the currency. Bank of Thailand representatives will meet with gold traders on Monday to discuss the metal’s impact and stricter reporting requirements.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,615.28 +30.99 (+0.47%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,883.45 +49.23 (+0.11%)

DAX (DE40) 23,748.86 +50.71 (+0.21%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,277.03 −6.26 (−0.07%)

USD Index 97.31 −0.24 (−0.24%)

News feed for: 2025.09.16

UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

15 Sep

Oil continues to get more expensive. The Japanese Nikkei index has reached a new all-time high

By JustMarkets

The US stocks had a mixed close on Friday. The Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.59% for the day (+0.89% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) dropped 0.05% (+1.33% for the week), while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed up 0.44% (+1.54% for the week). Investors interpreted weak employment data and low inflation as signs that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates this week. The Nasdaq jumped, driven by a 7.4% surge in Tesla shares and a 1.7% gain in Microsoft after the company avoided a potential EU antitrust fine, lifting the broader tech sector.

European stock markets were mostly down on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) fell 0.02% (-0.31% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.02% (+1.54% for the week), the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) dropped 0.08% (+2.86% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.15% on Friday (+0.82% for the week). European stocks closed slightly lower on Friday as markets continued to assess the global rate outlook and awaited France’s credit rating from Fitch. At the same time, pharmaceutical stocks across Europe fell after Goldman Sachs downgraded Novartis due to increasing competition from generic brands, causing the company’s shares to drop by 3%, while Roche, AstraZeneca, and GSK all declined by over 1%. On Thursday, the ECB signaled that its easing cycle was complete, with President Lagarde noting that the bank is now in a “good place” and that growth risks appear more balanced.

WTI crude oil prices rose more than 1.5% on Friday. Ukrainian strikes temporarily halted operations at Primorsk, Russia’s main oil-handling port in the Baltic, and hit three pumping stations that supply the Ust-Luga hub. Meanwhile, the US reportedly said it might force G7 allies to impose tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese and Indian purchases of Russian oil, and Canada convened a meeting of finance ministers to discuss additional measures. Further pressure comes from the International Energy Agency’s forecast of a record oil supply surplus next year, with OPEC+ planning to bring idle barrels back to the market in October, albeit at a slower pace.

Asian markets had a strong week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 3.03%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 1.88%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 3.73%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.11% last week. Japanese stocks reached new record highs, following gains on Wall Street. In Japan, investors continued to assess the Bank of Japan’s policy direction amid mixed economic signals and political uncertainty. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba recently announced his resignation, facing increasing pressure after a defeat in last year’s elections and deepening divisions within the ruling party. The Hang Seng rose by about 4%, marking its second consecutive weekly gain, fueled by reports that Beijing may direct state-owned banks to help local governments cover unpaid bills. However, gains were capped by concerns that the US could restrict supplies of Chinese medicines and tighten oversight of licensing deals for experimental drugs. Hong Kong-listed Alibaba jumped 7%, and Baidu surged nearly +4% after both companies began using their self-developed chips to train AI models, reducing their reliance on Nvidia.

China’s economy continues to face numerous risks and challenges, as evidenced by weak August 2025 data amid intensifying global issues. Economic activity was also negatively impacted by extreme weather conditions: the hottest heatwave since 1961 and the longest rainy season during the same period. Industrial production grew by 5.2% year-on-year that month, missing forecasts of 5.8% and marking the slowest growth rate in a year, while retail sales increased by 3.4%, the weakest showing in eight months and below the consensus forecast of 3.8%. The unemployment rate rose to a six-month high of 5.3%, and real estate investment continued to contract, highlighting the sector’s prolonged downturn amid tightening regulations on speculation and debt.

The New Zealand dollar declined to $0.596 on Friday but remained near multi-month highs on a weak US dollar. The US dollar was under pressure as slightly higher US consumer inflation data and a sharp increase in jobless claims maintained expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next week and beyond. At the same time, on the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s dovish forecasts continue to pressure the currency. RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby confirmed on Thursday the central bank’s forecast for another 50 basis points of cuts to the official cash rate by the end of the year, with the pace of easing to be determined by incoming data, particularly next week’s GDP report. Meanwhile, fresh data showed that New Zealand’s manufacturing sector contracted again in August, underscoring the economy’s fragile state.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,584.29 −3.18 (−0.05%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,834.22 −273.78 (−0.59%)

DAX (DE40) 23,698.15 −5.50 (−0.02%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,283.29 −14.29 (−0.15%)

USD index 97.62 +0.08 (+0.09%)

News feed for: 2025.09.15

China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 21:10 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

15 Sep

Gold in Turmoil: All Eyes on the Fed

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold retreated below 3,630 USD per ounce on Monday, pulling back from last week’s record highs as investors locked in profits ahead of a pivotal US Federal Reserve policy decision.

Markets are widely anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut this week, driven by mounting evidence of labour market softness. Expectations of further easing in 2025 are also being priced in.

Ahead of the Fed meeting, investor attention will focus on key US data releases, including retail sales and industrial production, which may offer additional clues about the health of the economy.

In a move that has raised eyebrows, the Trump administration on Sunday appealed to a federal court to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, heightening concerns over the central bank’s independence.

Meanwhile, traders are closely monitoring US-China trade negotiations, which resume in Madrid on Tuesday for a second day of talks.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD formed a tight consolidation range around 3,486 USD before breaking upward to complete an impulsive move towards 3,674 USD. The market is now showing signs of exhaustion, and a decline towards 3,591 USD appears likely. Currently, price action suggests the formation of a new consolidation range around 3,636 USD. A break below this range could extend the correction toward 3,486 USD, while an upward breakout might see a retest of 3,700 USD before any significant reversal. The MACD indicator supports this corrective outlook: the signal line remains above zero but has diverged from the histogram, indicating weakening momentum and potential downside.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair formed a consolidation range around 3,654 USD before breaking downward to complete the first leg of a correction at 3,611 USD. Following a retracement to 3,647 USD, the market appears set to resume its decline towards 3,593 USD. A break below this level could open the door to a deeper drop toward 3,486 USD. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this bearish near-term view, with its signal line hovering above 80 and poised to turn lower towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold is consolidating near all-time highs as traders await clarity from the Fed. While the broader bullish trend remains supported by expectations of monetary easing and geopolitical uncertainty, a short-term correction is underway. The Fed’s tone – along with developments in US-China talks and political pressure on the Fed – will be crucial in determining whether this pullback deepens or becomes a buying opportunity.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Metals

13 Sep

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 5-Year & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (127,224 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (59,952 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (59,011 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (10,386 contracts) and the Fed Funds (8,418 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-78,878 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-72,136 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-21,340 contracts), and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14,274 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Treasury Bond leads Price Performance

The bond market price performance this week was led by the long US Treasury Bond with a gain of 1.56% on the week. The US Treasury Bond has been up by 3.50% over the last 30 days and higher by 3.10% over the last 90 days.

The Fed Funds increased by 0.29% for the week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate was up by a quarter of a percent, followed by the 10-Year Note, which rose by 0.23% on the week. The 10-year is higher over 2% in the last 30 days, and for the last 90 days, the 10-year has risen by 2.62%.

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate and the 2-Year Bond were virtually unchanged, as well as the 5-Year Bond, which saw a minuscule dip of -0.05%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (6 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (9 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (29.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (27.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (9.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (5.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (31.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (30.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (35.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (19.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (49.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (56.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (72.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (77.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (16.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (34.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (46.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (43.5 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (4 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-15 percent), the SOFR 1-Month (-15 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-36.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-42.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (-14.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-4.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (-1.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-9.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (4.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-13.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (15.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (4.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (2.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-11.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-7.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-15.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (6.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (12.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (8.0 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -207,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -215,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	69.8	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	60.7	1.8
– Net Position:	-207,456	205,810	1,646
– Gross Longs:	241,031	1,579,710	42,737
– Gross Shorts:	448,487	1,373,900	41,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.1	70.6	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.0	40.7	-29.6

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -266,004 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 59,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -325,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	55.4	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	53.5	0.2
– Net Position:	-266,004	255,762	10,242
– Gross Longs:	1,927,628	7,452,204	41,362
– Gross Shorts:	2,193,632	7,196,442	31,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	52.8	83.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-13.2	11.7

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -209,777 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -72,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -137,641 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.7	68.3	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	54.9	0.0
– Net Position:	-209,777	209,228	549
– Gross Longs:	213,010	1,065,129	958
– Gross Shorts:	422,787	855,901	409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.8	82.9	68.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.1	15.7	-5.9

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,374,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -78,878 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,296,083 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	78.8	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	51.8	2.3
– Net Position:	-1,374,961	1,225,975	148,986
– Gross Longs:	549,072	3,577,509	251,198
– Gross Shorts:	1,924,033	2,351,534	102,212
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	88.4	76.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	19.4	-3.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,554,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 127,224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,681,987 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	84.2	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	50.1	3.6
– Net Position:	-2,554,763	2,315,862	238,901
– Gross Longs:	455,152	5,716,348	486,457
– Gross Shorts:	3,009,915	3,400,486	247,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.7	91.0	97.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	-1.7	19.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -857,972 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -868,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	77.4	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	63.8	6.3
– Net Position:	-857,972	719,102	138,870
– Gross Longs:	627,289	4,079,093	471,296
– Gross Shorts:	1,485,261	3,359,991	332,426
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	61.8	86.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-11.7	14.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -274,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 59,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -334,876 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	74.7	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	60.9	12.3
– Net Position:	-274,924	329,264	-54,340
– Gross Longs:	344,178	1,775,423	237,817
– Gross Shorts:	619,102	1,446,159	292,157
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	62.4	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.0	-23.3	13.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -98,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,340 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	76.4	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	78.2	6.7
– Net Position:	-98,608	-32,796	131,404
– Gross Longs:	159,934	1,409,130	254,567
– Gross Shorts:	258,542	1,441,926	123,163
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.1	29.4	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-12.9	27.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -263,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -248,945 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	82.3	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	69.2	9.2
– Net Position:	-263,219	262,589	630
– Gross Longs:	135,468	1,645,379	183,916
– Gross Shorts:	398,687	1,382,790	183,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	42.7	15.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	11.2	1.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

13 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Gold Speculator Bets rise to 29-Week High

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (12,210 contracts) with Copper (1,583 contracts) and Palladium (306 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-2,642 contracts), Silver (-1,986 contracts) and Steel (-383 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold Bets rise to 29-Week High

Gold speculator bets were up for the third straight week this week and for the eighth time out of the last 11 weeks. Gold speculator bets have now risen by almost +50,000 contracts just in the last two weeks alone.

This boost in speculator bets has pushed the current speculator net position to a total of +261,740 net contracts. This marks the highest level in 29 weeks, dating back to February 18th of 2025. The gold speculator position has now been above the +200,000 contract level for 11 consecutive weeks.

Palladium Leads the Metals Price Performance

The metals market’s performance this week was led by Palladium, which jumped by over 9%. Palladium has now been up by roughly 25% over the past 90 days.

Silver was up by 3% this week, and has now been up by 15% over the past 30 days, while racing higher by almost 30% in the past 90 days.

Copper came in third with a 2.51% gain on the week. Copper is the only metal that has been down over the last 90 days, with a -2.05% decrease.

Platinum rose this week by 1.59%, and has been up by a significant 40.25% over the past 90 days. Gold rose by 1.34% this week, and has been up by roughly 9% in the past 90 days.

Steel was the only metal to see a weekly decline. Steel dropped by -4.65%, although Steel has been up by roughly 7% in the past 30 days, and has been higher by 19.53% over the last 90 days.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (82 percent) and Gold (80 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (76 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Platinum (47 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (79.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (75.0 percent)
Silver (82.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (85.0 percent)
Copper (58.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (57.1 percent)
Platinum (46.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (53.5 percent)
Palladium (76.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (74.1 percent)
Steel (60.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (63.0 percent)

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (14 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-14 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (14.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-1.3 percent)
Silver (-7.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-6.3 percent)
Copper (-9.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (-13.2 percent)
Platinum (-15.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-9.2 percent)
Palladium (-14.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-13.1 percent)
Steel (-9.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 261,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 249,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.7	14.5	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	68.1	9.3
– Net Position:	261,740	-273,375	11,635
– Gross Longs:	324,875	73,850	58,990
– Gross Shorts:	63,135	347,225	47,355
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.6	23.9	12.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-5.2	-80.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 53,937 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.2	25.6	20.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	72.5	8.1
– Net Position:	53,937	-73,402	19,465
– Gross Longs:	72,450	40,163	32,191
– Gross Shorts:	18,513	113,565	12,726
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.3	15.6	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	6.9	-0.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 27,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	31.2	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	48.5	4.0
– Net Position:	27,241	-36,015	8,774
– Gross Longs:	64,293	65,052	17,170
– Gross Shorts:	37,052	101,067	8,396
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.6	39.4	70.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.4	0.9	54.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,998 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.0	21.6	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	43.0	5.1
– Net Position:	14,356	-20,210	5,854
– Gross Longs:	53,057	20,511	10,723
– Gross Shorts:	38,701	40,721	4,869
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	54.3	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.6	12.3	16.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,048 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.4	36.5	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.6	26.4	5.9
– Net Position:	-3,742	1,963	1,779
– Gross Longs:	8,453	7,113	2,931
– Gross Shorts:	12,195	5,150	1,152
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.4	12.2	81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	11.1	14.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -56 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	74.4	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	74.9	1.5
– Net Position:	-56	-107	163
– Gross Longs:	4,453	16,054	477
– Gross Shorts:	4,509	16,161	314
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	40.2	56.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	9.8	-5.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

13 Sep

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Natural Gas & Brent Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Natural Gas & Brent Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Natural Gas (8,229 contracts) with Brent Oil (2,447 contracts) also having a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-20,584 contracts), Heating Oil (-10,789 contracts), the Bloomberg Index (-522 contracts) and Gasoline (-185 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Brent Crude Oil Leads Weekly Price Performance

Brent Oil led the energy markets in price gains this week with a 1.83% rise for the last five days. Brent Crude has been down by over -5% in the last 30 days, but is up by 18% over the past 90 days.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index was the next highest gainer with a 1.4% increase over the past five days. Heating Oil rose by 1.33% this week and has been up by almost 20% over the last 90 days.

WTI Crude Oil rose by 0.97%. WTI has been down by about -8% over the past 30 days, while also being higher by 17.58% over the past 90 days. Gasoline was the next highest mover with a 0.92% increase for the week.

Natural Gas was the only decliner on the week with a -3.25% decrease. Natural Gas has been down by approximately -8% over the past 30 days, and over the past 90 days, Natural Gas has been down by over -30%.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Natural Gas

On the downside, WTI Crude (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (7.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (43.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (40.3 percent)
Natural Gas (66.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (60.0 percent)
Gasoline (40.9 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (41.2 percent)
Heating Oil (69.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (83.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (44.7 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (47.0 percent)

Gasoline & Brent Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the energy markets have negative trend scores at the current time.

Gasoline (-1.7 percent) and Brent Oil (-5.8 percent) have the least negative scores while WTI Crude (-27.7 percent) and the Bloomberg Index (-10.4 percent) have the most negative scores in the latest trends data.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-27.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-19.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-5.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-16.8 percent)
Natural Gas (-6.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-19.3 percent)
Gasoline (-1.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (9.2 percent)
Heating Oil (-6.7 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (11.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-10.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-8.2 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 81,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,428 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	41.8	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	47.1	2.5
– Net Position:	81,844	-102,155	20,311
– Gross Longs:	274,256	818,832	69,296
– Gross Shorts:	192,412	920,987	48,985
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.7	27.7	-6.7

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -26,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.1	44.5	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	32.3	3.0
– Net Position:	-26,195	25,347	848
– Gross Longs:	37,678	92,625	7,193
– Gross Shorts:	63,873	67,278	6,345
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	58.0	45.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	5.3	7.0

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -94,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,776 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	30.8	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	25.7	2.8
– Net Position:	-94,547	83,316	11,231
– Gross Longs:	282,995	502,932	56,670
– Gross Shorts:	377,542	419,616	45,439
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	38.5	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	11.8	-16.3

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 41,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,306 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	48.7	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	64.1	4.6
– Net Position:	41,121	-52,405	11,284
– Gross Longs:	81,040	164,911	26,762
– Gross Shorts:	39,919	217,316	15,478
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.9	52.2	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	-5.2	32.5

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 19,457 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	43.9	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	55.7	7.2
– Net Position:	19,457	-45,269	25,812
– Gross Longs:	56,751	168,677	53,529
– Gross Shorts:	37,294	213,946	27,717
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.1	23.5	91.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	5.6	-2.3

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,779 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,257 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.9	80.8	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	74.1	0.1
– Net Position:	-13,779	13,468	311
– Gross Longs:	33,670	161,484	425
– Gross Shorts:	47,449	148,016	114
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.7	54.9	64.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	10.3	0.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

13 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Lean Hogs & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (8,244 contracts) with Soybean Meal (5,505 contracts), Coffee (3,531 contracts) and Cocoa (249 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-53,805 contracts), Soybeans (-13,097 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,503 contracts), Wheat (-10,503 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,557 contracts), Cotton (-3,122 contracts) and with Corn (-1,789 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Coffee led weekly price gains

The soft commodities price performance this week was overwhelmingly positive and led by Coffee, which rose by almost 6% on the week. Coffee is up by almost 37% in the last 30 days, and over the last 90 days, Coffee is higher by 6.54%.

Next, Cocoa was the second highest gainer over the last five days with a rise of 2.83%. Corn was also up over two percent with a 2.11% weekly rise. Soybeans increased by 1.71% over the last five days, Soybean meal was up by 1.44% and Sugar was rose by 1.19%. Lean Hogs came in next with a gain of 0.91%. Lean Hogs is now up by over 9% in the last 30 days and is higher by approximately 10% in the last 90 days.

Cotton rose by 0.87% this week while Wheat also saw a weekly rise of 0.48%.

Soybean Oil fell this week by -0.71%, while Live Cattle saw the largest decline on the week by -1.56%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (96 percent) and Live Cattle (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (63 percent), Soybean Oil (61 percent) and Soybeans (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cotton (7 percent), Soybean Meal (14 percent) and Cocoa (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (28.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (29.1 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (12.8 percent)
Coffee (63.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (59.8 percent)
Soybeans (52.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (56.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (60.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (67.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (14.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.3 percent)
Live Cattle (83.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (86.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (96.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (90.2 percent)
Cotton (6.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (8.5 percent)
Cocoa (17.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (16.8 percent)
Wheat (29.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (37.6 percent)

Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (13 percent) and Lean Hogs (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (11 percent), Coffee (8 percent) and Soybeans (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-18 percent), Cotton (-15 percent) and Wheat (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (10.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (11.1 percent)
Sugar (-18.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-6.2 percent)
Coffee (8.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (3.7 percent)
Soybeans (4.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-3.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-29.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-16.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (12.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.2 percent)
Live Cattle (0.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (1.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (13.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (6.2 percent)
Cotton (-14.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.7 percent)
Cocoa (-3.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.7 percent)
Wheat (-10.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-14.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -54,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,455 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	45.8	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	40.0	10.9
– Net Position:	-54,244	85,990	-31,746
– Gross Longs:	344,492	677,221	128,809
– Gross Shorts:	398,736	591,231	160,555
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.8	70.2	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-11.8	-1.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -139,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -53,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,805 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	55.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	40.7	8.3
– Net Position:	-139,610	140,084	-474
– Gross Longs:	170,080	528,585	78,302
– Gross Shorts:	309,690	388,501	78,776
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	20.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	15.4	6.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 38,517 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,531 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,986 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.4	37.9	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	61.0	3.8
– Net Position:	38,517	-40,893	2,376
– Gross Longs:	60,922	67,067	9,133
– Gross Shorts:	22,405	107,960	6,757
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.2	37.9	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-10.1	33.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 8,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	57.6	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	57.0	7.3
– Net Position:	8,323	4,933	-13,256
– Gross Longs:	153,365	498,887	50,276
– Gross Shorts:	145,042	493,954	63,532
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.6	45.4	77.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-6.2	10.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,880 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,383 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	45.6	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	52.0	4.4
– Net Position:	33,880	-40,372	6,492
– Gross Longs:	130,047	287,877	34,368
– Gross Shorts:	96,167	328,249	27,876
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	41.0	50.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.4	32.2	-49.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -48,959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	51.4	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	45.7	5.5
– Net Position:	-48,959	34,371	14,588
– Gross Longs:	116,199	310,435	48,089
– Gross Shorts:	165,158	276,064	33,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.3	88.5	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-11.5	-21.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 106,678 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.2	29.4	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	51.9	13.0
– Net Position:	106,678	-86,840	-19,838
– Gross Longs:	185,728	113,095	30,057
– Gross Shorts:	79,050	199,935	49,895
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.2	16.5	27.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.0	-3.5	9.4

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 91,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,244 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,340 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.6	26.1	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	48.9	7.8
– Net Position:	91,584	-85,459	-6,125
– Gross Longs:	174,216	97,309	23,110
– Gross Shorts:	82,632	182,768	29,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.5	3.1	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-13.4	-4.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -51,334 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,212 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	50.9	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.2	30.3	5.5
– Net Position:	-51,334	52,788	-1,454
– Gross Longs:	70,171	130,797	12,610
– Gross Shorts:	121,505	78,009	14,064
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	94.9	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	14.8	-10.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,946 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	47.3	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	58.5	8.0
– Net Position:	6,946	-10,553	3,607
– Gross Longs:	23,995	44,360	11,124
– Gross Shorts:	17,049	54,913	7,517
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.0	83.2	55.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	2.5	5.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -82,139 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	38.0	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.1	19.8	7.3
– Net Position:	-82,139	81,977	162
– Gross Longs:	125,788	171,475	32,927
– Gross Shorts:	207,927	89,498	32,765
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.1	72.4	55.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	9.0	14.9

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