InvestMacro

By Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 1.18%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.21%. The Nasdaq (US100) closed lower at 0.25%. Investors shifted away from technology stocks into “blue chips” and cyclical sectors amid expectations that the House of Representatives will approve the funding agreement and the government will reopen as early as Wednesday. Progress on the bill in the Senate improved sentiment in economy-sensitive industries. Investors hope that reopening the government will allow delayed macroeconomic data to be released and support short-term growth prospects.

European stock markets rose yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) gained 0.53%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.25%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 1.27%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 1.15%. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone in November 2025 climbed to 25 points, above market expectations (23.5 points), indicating cautious optimism among analysts. The assessment of the current economic situation also improved, rising by 4.5 points, but remained negative at 27.3. This means analysts still view the Eurozone economy as weak, though less bleak than a month ago.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $61 per barrel, extending gains for the third consecutive session. Support came from expectations of a swift end to the record-long 42-day US government shutdown: the Senate approved temporary funding, and the House will review the bill on Wednesday. Optimism boosted interest in risk assets and commodities overall. On the supply side, limiting factors emerged. The US sanctions against major Russian oil companies have begun to affect logistics: seaborne shipments of Russian oil have declined for the third week in a row. This creates a risk of reduced supply in the global market.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) rose by 5% to $4.54 per MMBtu – the highest since December 2022. The increase was driven by bets on a colder December and higher electricity demand, despite temporarily mild weather expected next week. In November, deliveries to the eight largest US LNG plants averaged 17.8 billion cubic feet per day, above October’s record of 16.7 billion. Meanwhile, Europe is increasing imports from the U.S. to reduce dependence on Russian gas.

Asian markets mostly declined yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.14%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 0.56%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.18%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed down 0.19%. At the end of the week, final Q3 GDP data for Hong Kong will be released, with preliminary estimates signaling moderate improvement in economic dynamics.
Indonesia’s central bank expects the economy to grow about 5.33% in 2026. According to the Bank Indonesia Governor, growth could reach the government’s target of 5.4% if budget spending accelerates and fiscal stimulus is more actively deployed. The inflation prognosis for 2026 remains moderate at around 2.62%. The rupiah is expected to average near 16,430 per dollar.

By Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.16% (weekly -1.49%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.13% (weekly -2.23%). The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower at 0.28% (-4.04%). Sentiment was supported by hopes of progress in resolving the government shutdown. The latest inflation expectations data came out mixed: one-year inflation expectations rose from 4.6% to 4.7%, while long-term expectations fell from 3.9% to 3.6%. Friday’s top gainers included Exxon Mobil, T-Mobile, and Coca-Cola (+2% and above), while the tech sector, including Tesla (-4%), Meta, and Oracle (-2%), continued to face pressure from concerns over inflated valuations of AI companies.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.4 USD, rebounding from a seven-month low of 1.41 after strong labor market data. Unemployment fell to 6.9%, employment increased, and wage growth accelerated to 4% – the highest in eight months and above current inflation. This reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada has ended its rate-cutting cycle, as the economy remains resilient and core inflation stays above target.

In October, inflation in Mexico slowed as expected. Annual inflation eased to 3.57% in October (from 3.76% in September), the first decline in three months and in line with the prognosis of 3.56%. Core inflation stood at 4.28% – the highest since April 2024 and close to market expectations (4.27%).
European stock markets fell on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) dropped 0.69% (weekly -1.75%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.18% (weekly -2.08%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 1.34% (weekly -0.82%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.55% (weekly -0.36%). European equities opened in the “green zone” on Monday amid improved risk appetite. Optimism grew after the US Senate approved an initial funding bill, raising hopes for a swift end to the record-long government shutdown.

On Monday, silver rose above $49 per ounce, hitting a three-week high amid dollar weakness and growing concerns about the US economy. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.3 – the second-worst reading in history, against the backdrop of the prolonged government shutdown. The market remains divided ahead of the Fed’s December decision, with the probability of a 25 bps rate cut estimated at around 67%.

Asian markets traded mixed last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.62%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.18%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.93%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a five-day decline of 1.00%.

In October 2025, consumer prices in China rose 0.2% year-over-year. This was the first increase in consumer inflation since June and the fastest pace since January. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 1.2% year-over-year, the highest in 20 months. The offshore yuan remained around 7.12 per dollar, trading sideways.

The Australian dollar climbed above $0.65 after comments from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser on the need to maintain tight policy to curb inflation. He noted that GDP growth was the strongest since the early 1980s and demand remains slightly above potential, limiting room for easing. The RBA previously kept rates at 3.6%, and markets still expect a possible cut next year, though some believe the easing cycle may be over. Additional support for the AUD came from improved global sentiment and easing trade tensions between the US and China.

The Japanese government plans to finalize its first major economic package on November 21. The measures focus on supporting weak recovery, tax incentives for 17 industries, and maintaining low interest rates: the cabinet will urge the Bank of Japan to target strong economic growth with stable prices. The package includes steps to ease the burden of high living costs, stimulate investment, crisis management, and strengthen defense. Authorities pledged close coordination with the Bank of Japan to prevent a return to deflation.

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.48%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.37%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 0.65%. A positive factor for the market was the skeptical stance of the US Supreme Court regarding the case on Donald Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs,” which reduced the likelihood of their premature application. Against this backdrop, market participants cut their bets on the Supreme Court upholding the imposed tariffs. Further support for risk appetite came from stronger-than-expected employment data: the ADP report showed a moderate job gain of about 42,000, and the ISM Services PMI rose to an eight-month high, signaling continued economic resilience.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.41 CAD per US Dollar, nearing a seven-month low, amid the further strengthening of the US currency and heightened trade uncertainty. An additional factor was the announcement of the new federal budget, which will see the deficit more than double to approximately 78.3 billion CAD this year. This significant expansion of fiscal spending eases financial conditions but increases pressure on the currency amid an already weak macroeconomic outlook.

European stock markets grew steadily on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.42%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.08%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.39%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.64%.

The Swedish Central Bank (Riksbank), as expected, left its key interest rate unchanged at 1.75% at its October meeting, adhering to a course of supporting economic activity and gradually returning inflation to its medium-term target of 2%. The regulator indicated that the borrowing cost is likely to remain unchanged in the near term. Economic growth in the third quarter was slightly above expectations, but the labor market continues to signal weakness.
The Swiss franc traded near 0.81 per US dollar, remaining near its maximum levels since 2011, amid increased demand for safe-haven assets and expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will refrain from cutting rates in the near future. Simultaneously, softer-than-expectations inflation data in Switzerland renewed discussions about the possibility of further policy easing, which could theoretically return rates to negative territory. However, the SNB leadership is exercising caution, citing risks to financial stability.

WTI crude oil prices dropped to the $60 per barrel area. Concerns over excess supply and sluggish demand continued to weigh on the market. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil inventories rose by 5.202 million barrels for the week – the largest increase since July. Pressure on prices is intensified by rising production from both OPEC+ countries and non-OPEC producers, fueling concerns about a global market glut.
Asian markets also declined yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.50%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped by 0.01%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 0.07%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.13%.

Australia’s trade surplus expanded to 3.94 billion AUD in September, compared to a revised 1.11 billion AUD in August, and exceeded the prognosis of 3.85 billion AUD. The increase was driven by a 7.9% jump in exports, primarily due to increased shipments of gold amidst rising prices for the precious metal. Meanwhile, imports rose by 1.1% and reached a record level, supported by an increase in the inflow of capital goods.

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.53%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 1.17%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed lower by 2.04%. Investors intensified their concerns over the overheated valuations of artificial intelligence (AI) companies. Pressure mounted as the S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio rose above 23, bringing the metric close to the highs of the early 2000s and triggering fears of a correction after months of gains concentrated among a narrow group of AI giants. The technology sector was the hardest hit. Palantir plunged 8.1% due to valuation concerns despite reporting better-than-expected earnings. Nvidia (-2.7%), AMD (-2.1%), and Oracle (-2.6%) also saw notable drops. Market caution was amplified by warnings from Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick, who both suggested a potential market drop of 10-20%.

The Mexican peso weakened to 18.6 per US dollar, hitting an eight-week low as domestic and external factors amplified pressure on the currency. Local interest rates are now being priced by the market to include future cuts, while the dollar strengthened amid reduced expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. The market anticipates that Banxico (Mexico’s central bank) will continue its easing cycle this week and lower the rate by 25 bps to 7.25%, which would narrow Mexico’s yield advantage and potentially weaken capital inflows into the peso.

The Bitcoin price dropped below $100,000, approaching two-month lows and intensifying the downtrend that began after the digital assets market’s “Black Friday” in mid-October. Global equities and digital assets were under pressure amid mounting concerns over the overheated valuations of artificial intelligence companies. Against this backdrop, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant capital outflows. The correction also affected a broad range of altcoins.

European stock markets were mostly lower on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.76%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.52%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.01%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.14%. Trading saw profit-taking amidst continued market uncertainty: the publication of key economic data remains suspended due to the ongoing US government shutdown.

Silver (XNG/USD) was under pressure yesterday due to weak demand for industrial metals after total US auto sales in October fell to a 14-month low. Additional negative impact came from comments by ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras, who stated that the Eurozone’s economic growth prospects are subject to multiple downside risks. Nevertheless, precious metals retain fundamental support as safe-haven assets due to the ongoing US government shutdown, uncertainty surrounding tariff policy, geopolitical tensions, active central bank purchases, and political pressure on the Federal Reserve.
Asian markets also declined yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.74%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped by 0.27%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 0.79%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) recorded a negative result of 0.91%.

The overnight sell-off on Wall Street dampened investor sentiment, increasing caution and lowering risk appetite in regional markets. The correction was driven by rising concerns over inflated valuations, particularly in the high-tech and AI-related sectors. An additional pressure factor was a private survey that showed China’s services sector posted its weakest growth in three months in October. The indicator reflects weakening external demand and continued job contraction.
New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 5.2% in the second quarter of 2025, slightly exceeding the previous quarter’s figure (5.1%) and matching market expectations. This marks the highest level since late 2016. The number of unemployed individuals increased to 158,000 compared to 156,000 in March, representing an annual increase of 16,000 people, or 11.1%. The data points to a further softening of the labor market and intensifies pressure on the RBNZ amidst the ongoing economic downturn.