InvestMacro

By the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.43%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.91%. The technology-focused Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 0.67%. Traders assessed the prospects for artificial intelligence development and the possible imminent rate cut by the Fed. The growth was led by the communication services, healthcare, and materials sectors. The technology sector overall lagged, although some major companies showed notable gains: Alphabet rose by 1.6%, and Meta jumped by 3.8%, following reports that Meta is considering a multibillion-dollar deal to purchase Google’s AI chips. In contrast, Nvidia fell by 2.6% and has lost about 15% since the beginning of the month. If the trend continues, November could become the company’s worst month since September 2022. Oracle (-1.6%) and AMD (-4.2%) also declined.

European stocks mostly rose on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) gained 0.97%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.83%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 1.08%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.78%. Germany’s GDP in the third quarter remained unchanged, as falling exports and weakening private consumption heightened concerns about the outlook for Europe’s largest economy. Nevertheless, the data release had little impact on expectations regarding ECB policy: markets still assume that interest rates will remain unchanged until the end of 2026.

On Tuesday, WTI oil prices fell by about 2%, dropping to $57.7 per barrel, the lowest level in the past five weeks. Pressure on prices intensified after reports that Ukraine had agreed to the terms of a revised peace agreement aimed at ending the war with Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that negotiations with the US are ongoing, while Russia’s position remains uncertain. A potential end to the conflict could significantly affect oil markets. Any increase in Russian production in the event of eased restrictions could heighten the risk of oversupply.

The US natural gas prices fell nearly 5%, dropping to around $4.4 per million MMBtu. Prices were pressured by record production volumes and high inventory levels, ensuring an abundant supply in the market. At the same time, LNG exports continue to grow: in November, shipments from the eight largest US terminals averaged 18 billion cubic feet per day, surpassing October’s record (16.6 billion cubic feet per day).

Asian markets also traded without a unified trend yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.07%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.87%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.69%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed positively at 1.38%.

At its final meeting of the year, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lowered the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, in line with market expectations, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest level since mid-2022. The regulator emphasized that the decision reflects significant unused capacity in the economy and easing inflationary pressures. The Monetary Policy Committee stressed that subsequent decisions will depend on updated data and the outlook for the economy and inflation.

The Australian dollar strengthened on Wednesday to 0.650 USD, reaching a weekly high, after higher-than-expected inflation data reinforced expectations of continued tight policy by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Headline inflation in October accelerated to 3.8%, the highest in seven months, exceeding projections. Markets now see minimal chances of policy easing before May next year, and some analysts believe the rate-cutting cycle may already be over.

By Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.44%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.55%. The Nasdaq (US100) closed higher at 2.69%. Markets were supported by comments from Federal Reserve officials. New York Fed President John Williams pointed to the possibility of rate cuts in the near term, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that recent labor market weakness increases the likelihood of a December cut. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 bps cut at the December 9-10 meeting is estimated at about 79%.

The technology sector led the rally. Broadcom surged 11.1% amid renewed interest in AI infrastructure. Alphabet gained more than 6% after news related to Gemini 3 lifted its market capitalization above Microsoft. Tesla rose by 6.8% following Elon Musk’s statements about progress in developing next‑generation AI chips.

European stocks recovered and ended Monday with modest gains, recouping part of last week’s losses. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.64%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.29%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.92%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.05%. The technology sector was a clear leader, following the positive momentum from US markets. ASML shares rose by 3%, Infineon gained 3.5%, while Siemens and Schneider Electric also closed higher.

On Tuesday, silver climbed above $51 per ounce, reaching a weekly high amid heightened expectations of imminent US rate cuts. Dovish comments from Fed officials supported the metal’s rise: Governor Christopher Waller expressed readiness to back a December cut, citing growing labor market risks, echoing recent remarks from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and New York Fed President John Williams.

WTI crude oil prices rose Monday to $59 per barrel, partially recovering after last week’s 3.4% drop, as markets assessed the likelihood of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The US‑brokered talks reportedly made some progress, though key disagreements remain. A potential deal could have major implications for the oil market. If sanctions are eased, Russian oil could return to the global market, increasing the expected supply surplus in 2026.
The US natural gas prices fell to $4.53/MMBtu, as the market remains well supplied thanks to near‑record production and high inventories. Output growth has kept stocks about 4% above seasonal norms. However, recent cold weather triggered the first drawdown of the winter. Rising exports partly offset high production, but the market balance remains comfortable.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.40%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 2.57%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.97%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed positive 1.29%. The Hang Seng broke a six‑day losing streak, supported by gains in US indices. Technology once again showed the strongest momentum: the Tech Index rose by 2.7% amid reports that the Trump administration may allow Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China. Additional support came from expectations of potential stimulus measures ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing next month.

By Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.08% (weekly -1.75%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.98% (weekly -1.65%). The Nasdaq (US100) closed higher at 0.77% (weekly -2.61%). Despite Friday’s gains, all indices ended the week in negative territory. The technology sector weakened again: Nvidia (-1%), Microsoft (-1.3%), Broadcom (-1.9%), AMD (-1.1%), and Oracle (-5.7%) came under pressure as investors continued to reassess lofty valuations of AI‑related companies.

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November rose to 51.0 from the preliminary 50.3 after the end of the federal shutdown. Despite the slight increase, the figure remains the second lowest on record, only slightly above the June 2022 low, as households continue to face high prices and declining real incomes. One‑year inflation expectations edged down from 4.6% to 4.5%, marking the third consecutive monthly decline, though still well above January’s 3.3%.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to 18.45 per US dollar. Mexico’s economy contracted in Q3, with GDP down 0.3% q/q. Manufacturing activity weakened notably, pointing to slower growth and exports than expected, raising doubts about the sustainability of the high interest rate premium. In November, the Bank of Mexico began an easing cycle, cutting the key rate by 25 bps to 7.25%. Meeting minutes signaled a more cautious approach to further cuts, reducing the appeal of carry trades that had previously supported the peso.

European stock markets fell on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) dropped 0.80% (weekly -3.34%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) edged up 0.02% (weekly -2.12%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 1.04% (weekly -3.02%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.12% (weekly -1.64%). All indices ended the week in negative territory. Preliminary PMI data showed Europe’s manufacturing sector remains weak, while service sector growth slowed in November. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7, below the prognoses of 50.2. A reading below 50 signals contraction. The decline reflects ongoing drops in new orders and employment, with manufacturing jobs shrinking monthly for two and a half years straight.

WTI crude oil prices fell more than 2% to $57.5 per barrel, hitting a one‑month low. Pressure increased after Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed readiness to continue peace talks. A draft agreement developed by the US and Russia is expected to be discussed further at Zelensky’s upcoming meeting with President Donald Trump. Reports suggest proposals include territorial concessions by Ukraine and partial sanctions relief, potentially boosting Russian oil exports and raising oversupply concerns. European diplomats remain skeptical about the likelihood of an agreement.

Asian markets also traded under pressure last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 3.29%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 3.06%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 4.62%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a five‑day loss of 2.18%.

The New Zealand dollar is trading near a seven‑month low amid expectations of an imminent rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Markets have fully priced in a 25 bps cut, with a small chance of a more aggressive 50 bps move. Traders’ focus will be on RBNZ rhetoric after the decision: analysts believe this cut may be the last in the current cycle unless the global situation worsens significantly.

Annual inflation in Singapore accelerated to 1.2% in October 2025 from 0.7% the previous month, reaching the highest level since January. Core inflation also rose to 1.2% from 0.4% in September, the highest in ten months. In a joint statement, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Ministry of Trade and Industry noted that import costs are likely to continue declining, though at a more moderate pace.

On Wednesday, the US stocks recovered slightly. The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.10%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.38%. The Nasdaq (US100) closed higher at 0.59%. Markets digested the mixed Fed minutes. The minutes from the October FOMC meeting revealed divisions among officials over the appropriateness of further easing. Traders reduced expectations of another Fed rate cut in December. The probability of a 25 bps cut in the federal funds rate is now estimated at about 34%.

Chip giant Nvidia beat Wall Street expectations for revenue and guidance, easing some concerns about slowing AI investment that had fueled recent market volatility. According to Wednesday’s report, revenue for the three months to October rose 62% to $57 billion, reflecting persistently strong demand for its AI data‑center chips. Sales in the key data‑center segment increased 66%. Shares rose more than 5% after the close of the main session.

The Mexican peso strengthened to 18.35 per US dollar, near July 2024 highs, amid falling domestic inflation and cautious rhetoric from the Bank of Mexico. Headline CPI fell to 3.57% in October, while core inflation dropped just above 4%, strengthening arguments for continuing a mild easing cycle. Banxico cut rates by 25 bps to 7.25%, accompanying the decision with a restrained, data‑dependent tone. This confirmed expectations of gradual rather than aggressive easing and reduced risks of unexpected moves by the regulator.

In Europe, Germany’s DAX (DE40) continued to decline, closing 0.08% lower, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.18%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose 0.39%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) dropped 0.47%. European stocks showed modest gains overall, breaking a four‑day losing streak, as investors continued to assess Fed monetary policy prospects and tried to determine fair value for highly speculative tech companies. Performance of European AI‑related firms was mixed: ASML rose by 2.5%, while Infineon slipped slightly. Nokia shares fell by 7% after announcing the spin‑off of its AI business into a separate unit – a move following Nvidia’s $1 billion investment.

WTI crude oil prices fell more than 2% to $59.3 per barrel on Wednesday after reports that the US is pressing for an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine. According to a Ukrainian official, Kyiv received signals of possible US proposals for conflict resolution, reviving hopes for renewed diplomatic talks. Meanwhile, Russia stated that sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil had not affected production, which also influenced market sentiment. On the supply side, US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed crude inventories fell by more than 3.4 million barrels in the week ending November 14, to 424.2 million barrels.
Asian markets mostly declined yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.34%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.74%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped 0.38%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed negative 0.25%.

On Thursday, the offshore yuan held around 7.11 per dollar, stabilizing after recent fluctuations, as China signaled that further monetary easing is not a priority amid ongoing domestic and external challenges. The one‑year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained at 3%, while the five‑year LPR, a key benchmark for mortgage lending, was kept at 3.5% after a 10 bps cut in May 2025. The decision followed the People’s Bank of China’s earlier move in November to leave the seven‑day reverse repo rate unchanged, reinforcing expectations of a cautious, “wait‑and‑see” approach to further stimulus.