InvestMacro

At the close of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.14%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.79%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 1.38%. The US stock markets grew steadily on Thursday amid unexpectedly soft US inflation data. Annual inflation in November slowed to 2.7%, below market expectations, while the core figure fell to 2.6% – the lowest level since spring 2021 – fueling expectations of further Fed rate cuts next year. The consumer and technology sectors were the main drivers of growth, with Micron Technology shares soaring approximately 10% following strong quarterly earnings and a positive outlook.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) strengthened to around 18 per US dollar, its highest level since July 2024, after the Bank of Mexico, as expected, lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 7%. This move, part of an ongoing monetary easing cycle that began about a year ago, reflects the regulator’s confidence that inflation will gradually return to the 3% target, despite core inflation remaining above 4% and weak domestic economic dynamics.

European stock markets grew confidently yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.00%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.80%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.15%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished 0.65% on Thursday. The ECB, as expected, left interest rates unchanged and reaffirmed its commitment to a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, as updated growth and inflation forecasts for 2026 provided no reason to revise the current policy course. At the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that inflation is in a “narrow range,” and core inflation has not changed significantly, remaining near the 2% target. In the region, the Norwegian and Swedish central banks also kept rates unchanged, while the Bank of England, as expected, cut them by 25 basis points.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) fell approximately 3% to $3.9 per MMBtu, nearing a seven-week low. Price pressure is stemming from record-high production volumes and comfortable inventory levels: December production in the Lower 48 states is estimated at 109.7 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day, comparable to November’s record levels. According to EIA data, 167 bcf of gas was withdrawn from storage for the week, slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that inventories still exceed the five-year average by about 0.9%.

Palladium prices (XPD) rose to $1,720 per ounce, reaching their highest level since January 2023, amid expectations of rising demand and shrinking supply. The market was supported by regulatory changes in Europe: the European Commission proposed softening the ban on internal combustion engines to 2035, lowering the emission-reduction target from 100% to 90%, and allowing the sale of some non-electric vehicles after 2035. This decision potentially supports palladium demand, as gasoline and hybrid vehicles still require catalytic converters.

Asian markets mostly rose on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.03%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.32%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.12%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.04%.

At the close of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.47%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 1.16%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed lower by 1.81%. The US stock markets finished significantly down on Wednesday, extending their losing streak to a fourth consecutive session. The main pressure came from the technology sector amid persistent concerns over high valuations and massive investments in AI-related projects. Oracle shares tumbled 5.4% following reports that its key data center partner, Blue Owl, declined to support a $10 billion data center construction project. Nvidia shares fell by 3.8%, Broadcom by 4.5%, and AMD by 5.3%. Against this backdrop, the energy sector outperformed the market, receiving support from rising oil prices following President Trump’s order for a “full and comprehensive” blockade of oil tankers associated with Venezuela.

European stock markets traded without a uniform dynamic yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.48%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.25%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.10%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.92%. The European Central Bank, the Swedish Riksbank, and the Norges Bank are expected to keep interest rates unchanged and will likely maintain current policy levels through 2026. Even with the Bank of England’s expected rate cut on Thursday, markets are still pricing in only one additional cut next year, despite softer inflation data.

WTI crude oil prices rose by more than 2% on Wednesday, exceeding $56 per barrel, rebounding from a nearly five-year low reached in the previous session. The market was supported by US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a “full and comprehensive” blockade on sanctioned oil tankers linked to Venezuela, following the recent detention of blacklisted vessels and an increased US military presence in the region. An additional growth factor was reports of a new round of US sanctions being prepared against Russia’s energy sector to increase pressure on Moscow in the context of negotiations over Ukraine.

Platinum (XPT) rose above $1,930 per ounce, reaching its highest level since 2008, amid growing economic and political uncertainty in the US, which bolstered demand for alternative assets for diversification. Growth was also driven by supply risks, as production in South Africa, the world’s largest platinum producer, came in weaker than expected. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) prognoses a market deficit of 69,000 ounces in 2025, the third consecutive year of deficit, before a move toward a balanced market with a small surplus is expected in 2026.

On Wednesday, silver appreciated by more than 4%, exceeding $66 per ounce and setting a new all-time high. The market received an extra boost following statements by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who allowed for the possibility of a 1% point rate cut in the US, citing nearly zero job growth and the need for moderate policy easing to support the labor market. In a broader perspective, silver’s price increase of nearly 130% since the start of the year is supported by structural factors: shrinking inventories and steady demand from industrial and retail investors, primarily in the solar energy, electric vehicle, and data center sectors.

Asian markets were mostly up on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.26%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.40%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 0.92%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.16%.

The Bank of Indonesia (BI), at its December 2025 monetary policy meeting, kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.75% for the third consecutive time. This decision aligns with expectations and is aimed at supporting the Rupiah despite signs of slowing economic growth. The move follows a cumulative reduction of 150 basis points since September of last year, bringing the rate to its lowest level since October 2022. This stance reflects the central bank’s view that inflation in 2025–2026 will remain within the target range of 2.5% ± 1% due to a stable Rupiah and ongoing measures to sustain economic growth.

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.62%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.24%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 0.23%. The November labor market report indicated a moderate cooling of the economy: employment growth was only 64K, accompanied by a sharp downward revision of October data and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.6% – the highest level since 2021. Weaker US labor market and consumption data strengthened expectations for further Fed easing in 2026. Stagnant retail sales served as an additional signal of weakening demand. The energy sector pressured the indices due to oil prices falling below $55 per barrel, while tech giants traded mixed; gains in Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla, along with a recovery in Broadcom and Oracle, supported the Nasdaq.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened above 18 per US dollar, hitting its highest level since July 2024, amid dollar weakness and the maintenance of a relatively tight monetary policy in Mexico. At the same time, Mexico’s November inflation came in above expectations at approximately 3.8%, and the core indicator accelerated to the mid-4% range, confirming Banxico’s cautious stance. Consequently, attractive real rates and a stable yield differential continue to support capital inflows and demand for the peso.

European stock markets mostly declined yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.63%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) closed lower by 0.23%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.70%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.68%. Preliminary PMI indices indicated mixed dynamics in the Eurozone economy: overall private sector activity slowed due to weakness in the services sector and a continuing slump in manufacturing. Germany was the key factor in the deterioration, where the decline in manufacturing activity intensified, while in France, the slowdown in the services sector was more pronounced than the market expected, heightening concerns regarding the region’s growth rate.

Silver (XAG) hit an all-time high on Wednesday, rising toward $66 per ounce, driven by increased demand for alternative assets following the mixed US labor market report. Silver is further supported by fundamental factors: since the beginning of the year, the metal has appreciated by nearly 130% amid declining inventories and steady demand from industry and retail, particularly from the solar energy, electric vehicle, and data center sectors.

On Tuesday, WTI oil prices fell by more than 2%, trading around $55.5 per barrel, the lowest level since early 2021. This brought year-to-date losses to approximately 22%, the worst annual performance since 2018. Expectations that the war in Ukraine might be nearing an end increased the likelihood of easing restrictions on Russian oil supplies, which would limit potential supply disruptions in an already well-supplied market. Simultaneously, economic data from China points to ongoing weakness in the world’s second-largest economy, clouding the demand outlook. However, downside risks were partially offset by the possibility of US military action in Venezuela following the Trump administration’s seizure of a supertanker last week.

Asian markets traded lower on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.56%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 1.11%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 1.54%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.42%.

The Australian dollar remained virtually unchanged, holding around $0.662, breaking its recent decline as latest government budget adjustments had no notable impact on central bank policy expectations. The budget deficit for the 2025/26 financial year is expected to be slightly lower at AUD 36.8 billion due to higher-than-projected tax revenues, while bond issuance plans remained unchanged. Amid steady spending, investors increased expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might need to raise the cash rate from the current 3.6% as early as June to curb inflation: analysts at CBA and NAB now allow for a rate hike in February, while Westpac considers such a move premature.

On Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.51% (for the week, +1.01%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) was cheaper by 1.07% (for the week, -0.70%). The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed lower by 1.69% (-1.87%). The US stock markets sharply declined on Friday amid a massive sell-off in the technology sector following a 11.4% drop in Broadcom shares, triggered by a warning about margin pressure. This prompted a rotation of capital from high-valuation stocks related to AI and semiconductors into more cyclical and defensive sectors. Significant losses were also incurred by Nvidia, Oracle, Palantir, AMD, and Micron, reflecting growing investor caution regarding the margin potential of AI companies, despite the Fed’s recent interest rate cuts. An additional factor was the comments from the Cleveland Fed President, who expressed a preference for a tougher policy to control inflation.

Bitcoin dropped below $90,000, hitting a two-week low amid the global sell-off in tech stocks and reduced risk appetite. Pressure intensified due to fears of inflated valuations and massive spending in the AI sector, as well as uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s policy trajectory for the next year. An additional negative factor was the warning from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor about potential market consequences from MSCI’s initiative to exclude companies with over 50% digital asset holdings from its indices. Analysts estimate this could trigger significant capital outflow and increase the volatility of Bitcoin and related assets.

European stocks mostly went down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.45% (for the week, +0.71%), France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) closed lower by 0.21% (for the week, -0.37%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.28% (for the week, +1.46%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.56% (for the week, -0.19%).

WTI oil prices rose to $57.7 per barrel on Monday, partially recovering from last week’s over 4% drop, as geopolitical risks temporarily outweighed concerns about a global supply surplus. Prices were supported by increased US pressure on Venezuela, including the seizure of a tanker, the imposition of new sanctions, and a military buildup in the region, as well as supply disruption risks amid ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. The detention of a foreign tanker by Iran in the Gulf of Oman added another factor of uncertainty.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) pulled back below $62 per ounce on Friday after hitting record levels earlier in the session, as investors took profits and the market entered a short-term consolidation phase before the weekend. However, the overall bullish backdrop remains: the Fed’s recent rate cut and a less hawkish expectation support medium-term expectations, and Powell gave no signal of a return to tightening, pointing instead to further rate cuts in the following years. Strong ETF inflows and sustained retail demand are also fueling expectations of a silver deficit next year.

Asian markets traded without a single dynamic last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.38%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.40%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 0.35%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 1.18% over the five days.

The offshore yuan strengthened to around 7.05 per dollar, hitting a high since late September, despite weak economic data from China. November statistics pointed to a slowdown in growth: retail sales sharply missed projections, industrial production declined more than expected, and fixed-asset investment showed the deepest slump since the pandemic, with the ongoing real estate crisis intensifying pressure on the economy. The deteriorating macroeconomic environment heightened expectations for new fiscal and monetary support measures early next year, which partially offset the negative sentiment.

The New Zealand dollar weakened to around $0.578, retreating from a two-month high after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signaled its intention to keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged for an extended period. RBNZ Governor Breman noted that the economy is largely evolving in line with the regulator’s prognoses, and inflation is moving towards the 2% target by mid-2026. Market participants’ attention is now focused on upcoming macro statistics, including the third-quarter GDP report, though pressure on the currency is partially restrained by the continuing weakening of the US dollar amid a softer-than-expected stance from the Federal Reserve.

At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.21%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.34%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed lower by 0.25%. Investors rotated out of overheated technology companies into cyclical and value stocks following the Fed’s 25 basis point rate cut and a soft signal on future policy. The largest gains were seen in the financial sector and payment systems: Visa added 6.2% after a BofA rating upgrade.

Mastercard and American Express rose by 4.6% and 2.5%, respectively. Major financial companies, including JPMorgan, UnitedHealth, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Progressive, also showed solid growth. The technology sector, conversely, dragged the market down: Oracle shares fell by 10.8% due to weak revenue and worsened cloud expectations, raising doubts about the return on AI investments.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened to 18 per dollar, returning to its July 2024 highs amid the dollar’s weakness following the Fed rate cut and its softer tone. Simultaneously, investors revised expectations for further Banxico policy easing: November inflation accelerated to 3.8% y/y, and core inflation to 4.43% y/y, which complicates rapid future rate cuts. Although the Fed cut the rate by 25 basis points and began purchasing $40 billion in short-term bonds, tightening monetary conditions, Mexico remains attractive due to its high real interest rates.

European stock markets rose steadily yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.68%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) closed up 0.57%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.11%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.52% higher.

The Swiss franc strengthened to 0.79 per dollar, approaching its 2011 highs amid the dollar’s weakness and the SNB’s decision to keep the rate unchanged at 0% for the second consecutive time. The regulator noted a slight improvement in economic prospects, partly due to a recently concluded tariff agreement with the US, and recorded lower-than-expected inflation, which led to a reduction in short-term expectations without serious changes to medium-term ones. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel confirmed expectations of gradual inflation growth in the coming quarters, reinforcing the prognoses for stable monetary policy.

Palladium prices (XPD) held around $1,490 per ounce. Production of platinum group metals in South Africa grew by 3.9% y/y in October, the second consecutive month, indicating a stabilization of supply. Demand prospects are improving due to a 3.4% y/y increase in car sales in China in November, an 11-month high. An additional impact on the auto sector may come from the upcoming EU decision on emissions rules on December 16: the initial ban on ICE vehicles by 2035 is likely to be softened and shifted to 2040 due to industry pressure and a slower pace of transition, which could support demand for palladium in the medium term.

WTI crude oil prices fell by approximately 2% on Thursday to $57.3 per barrel, dropping to a seven-week low amid concerns about a growing global supply surplus driven by increased production from OPEC+ and producers in North and South America. Although the International Energy Agency (IEA) slightly reduced its projections for a record surplus for the first time since May, it still anticipates a significant oil surplus in the market.

The US natural gas (XNG) prices fell by 7% on Thursday, below $4.3/MMBtu, reaching a five-week low amid warm weather expectations, weak demand, and near-record production levels. Above-normal temperatures are expected until December 26, reducing heating demand. Production in the continental states rose to 109.7 billion cubic feet per day, surpassing the November high and raising inventories approximately 3% above the seasonal level. Despite a large withdrawal of gas from storage last week (177 billion cubic feet) due to a short period of intense cold, high supply, and accumulated inventories continue to pressure the market.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.10%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped by 0.61%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.42%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.72% for the day. Stocks in Hong Kong opened strongly higher on Friday: the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.1% after a decline the day before. At the Central Economic Work Conference, Chairman Xi Jinping stated that 2025 would be a “truly outstanding year” and noted confidence in achieving key goals. Fiscal policy remains stimulative, and monetary policy remains soft, with an emphasis on supporting domestic demand.