Archive for Financial News – Page 249

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.12.21

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0607
  • Prev Close: 1.0622
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.14 %

ECB officials earlier this week indicated that a 50 bps rate hike at the next meeting is the best-case scenario and is seen as the main scenario within the monetary policy tightening. It is also should ту noted that the ECB decided at its last meeting to start gradually reducing its balance sheet next year. The tightening of monetary policy is usually accompanied by currency appreciation. But investors should also consider the difference between central banks’ interest rates. As long as the US Fed has a higher rate than the ECB, traders should not expect the Euro to strengthen in the medium term.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0549, 1.0483, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193
  • Resistance levels: 1.0648, 1.0695

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, volatility is reduced, and the price forms a price corridor. Under such market conditions, it is best to consider buy trades from the support level of 1.0549 but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0648, but it is better with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout, as the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0446 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.12.21:
  • – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2145
  • Prev Close: 1.2183
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.31 %

The British pound remains under pressure due to the interest rate differential between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE). The US Fed is holding the rate at 4.5%, while the Bank of England is at 3.5%. The ECB has become more hawkish, and the Bank of England is expected to end monetary policy tightening ahead of the rest. As early as tomorrow, the UK will release its final GDP data for the quarter, and experts believe the economy will contract by 0.2%, indicating a second consecutive quarter of contraction, which is technically considered the beginning of a recession.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2092, 1.2177, 1.2024, 1.1964, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
  • Resistance levels: 1.2218, 1.2308, 1.2431, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading at the level of the moving averages and is approaching the priority change level. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and volatility on the eve of the holidays is reduced. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support level of 1.2092 but with confirmation on the intraday time frames. Sell trades are best looked for from the resistance level of 1.2218, but also better with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down from the 1.2092 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 136.88
  • Prev Close: 131.70
  • % chg. over the last day: -3.93 %

The Bank of Japan changed its yield curve control policy yesterday, raising the ten-year government bond rate target by 25 bps to 0.5%. Raising the bar is a forced measure of tightening monetary policy due to a lack of demand and liquidity in the country’s debt market and capital outflows from Japan to countries. Analysts think that the JPY has all the signs of continuing its strengthening trend as the Bank of Japan is no longer going to tolerate any devaluation of its currency. At the same time, it needs to shift towards policy normalization in order to maintain liquidity.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 131.22
  • Resistance levels: 133.53, 134.73, 135.88, 137.03, 138.00, 139.09

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator is deeply negative, without any signs of reversal, but with a sign of oversold. It is best to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support of 131.22, but only with confirmation. Sell deals can be sought from the resistance level of 133.53, provided that there is a reverse reaction.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 137.00, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3644
  • Prev Close: 1.3611
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.24 %

The Bank of Canada announced an increase in dealer limits for overnight repo transactions. The maximum aggregate cash value limit will increase to $5 billion from the previous limit of $1.5 billion per offering. The Bank is increasing these limits to improve the efficiency of its monetary policy implementation operations. OR operations support the effective implementation of monetary policy through intervention and intraday liquidity injections into the overnight general collateral market to reinforce the Bank’s overnight rate target.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3601, 1.3521, 1.3438, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
  • Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. But the price is trading below the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is negative, indicating selling pressure inside the day. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.3601, but with confirmation. Sells are best to look for on intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.3700, but with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or after a false breakout, since the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3386, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
News feed for 2022.12.21:
  • – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The US Real Estate Market is showing weakness. Bank of Japan aims to normalize monetary policy

By JustMarkets

The Bank of Japan alarmed investors yesterday after it announced it would allow Japan’s 10-year government bond yields to rise 50 basis points or 0.5%. That’s above the previous limit of 25 basis points and signals the Bank of Japan’s first move to tighten monetary policy by expanding its target range for bond yields. This is a forced measure of policy tightening due to a lack of demand and liquidity in the country’s debt market, as well as capital outflows from Japan. Japan’s rising government bond yields led to rising global bond yields, including Treasuries, which in turn led to falling indices. Nevertheless, the growth of energy companies’ shares due to a jump in oil prices helped stabilize the stock market as a whole. At the close of the stock exchange, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.28%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.10%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed at its opening level.

In the US, housing construction exceeded expectations in November. Still, the number of permits, an indicator of future project activity, fell to an 18-month low, adding to fears of further activity decline.

European stock markets traded flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.42%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.35%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.59%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed Tuesday at plus 0.13%.

European stocks fell on Tuesday due to rate-sensitive tech and industrial stocks after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) shocked global markets with a surprise policy change. While this was a minor policy adjustment, it was the first adjustment by the BOJ in a very long time. That’s why the market reaction has been substantial.

Gold and silver continue to rise amid a decline in US government bonds. Gold has an inverse correlation to the dollar index and government bonds, and that’s why the “yellow metal” was falling against a background of tighter monetary policy from the Fed. But now the Fed is getting closer to the end of the cycle, so more and more investors are moving into gold amid the approaching recession.

Oil prices ended higher Tuesday as a worsening forecast for a major storm in the US raised fears that millions of Americans could limit their travel plans during the New Year holiday. Oil prices were supported by a weaker dollar and a US oil restocking plan, but gains were limited by uncertainty over the rising number of COVID-19 cases in China.

TC Energy Corp. submitted its plan to US regulators to restart the Keystone pipeline nearly two weeks after the pipeline rupture that led to the largest oil spill in the United States in nine years.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225м(JP225) decreased by 2.46%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 2.41%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 1.33%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) fell by 0.19%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended Tuesday down by 1.54%.

Tighter Bank of Japan policy will remove one of the last global anchors that helped keep borrowing costs low more broadly. Many economists now expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates next year, joining the Fed, ECB, and others after a decade of extraordinary stimulus.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,821.62 +3.96 (+0.10%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,849.74 +92.20 (+0.28%)

DAX (DE40) 13,884.66 −58.21 (−0.42%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,370.62 +9.31 (+0.13%)

USD Index 104.00 -0.72 (-0.68%)

Important events for today:
  • – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Data on New Cell Therapy for LBCL Encouraging, Analyst Says

The biopharma behind the investigational treatment plans to advance it into a potentially pivotal clinical program next year, noted a BTIG report.

Adicet Bio Inc. (ACET:NASDAQ) presented “encouraging” data from its ongoing Phase 1 trial evaluating the company’s lead therapeutic ADI-001, its chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy, in large B-cell lymphoma, reported BTIG analyst Justin Zelin in a Dec. 12 research note. The data update took place at the American Society of Hematology’s annual meeting on Dec. 10 to 13.

The study showed Adicet’s anti-CD20, allogeneic, gamma delta CAR T-cell therapy to have a six-month complete response rate that is comparable to that of autologous CAR-T therapy as well as key safety advantages, Zelin highlighted.

“An off-the-shelf, allogeneic therapy with [a] differentiated and well-tolerated safety profile carries a strong value proposition in this setting,” Zelin commented.

Next Steps and Possible Catalysts

Massachusetts-based Adicet will continue enrolling patients in the study to gain further insights into durability and the recommended Phase 2 dose selection, noted Zelin. The likely choices are two infusions of DL3 (300 million cells) with one lymphodepletion or one dose of DL4 (1 billion cells).

“We look forward to clinical and regulatory updates from the company next year,” wrote Zelin.

Also, in about Q2/23, Adicet plans to move ADI-001 into a potentially pivotal clinical program, Zelin noted.

This would include two studies, one in post-CAR-T large B cell lymphoma patients and the other in earlier-line large B cell lymphoma patients. Discussions are planned with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency about the regulatory path forward for this program.

“We look forward to clinical and regulatory updates from the company next year,” wrote Zelin.

Positive Efficacy and Safety

The updated Phase 1 data indicated a potential efficacy signal for ADI-001 in post-CAR-T large B cell lymphoma patients, Zelin wrote. At all ADI-001 dose levels, patients showed a 75% overall response rate and a 69% complete response rate. Five patients, who previously relapsed on anti-CD19 autologous CAR-T therapy, had 100% overall response and complete response rates.

Zelin relayed that Dr. Sattva Neelapu, in the Department of Lymphoma-Myeloma at the MD Anderson Cancer Center, “expressed his excitement of the complete response rate in heavily pretreated patients with few alternative treatment options (estimated median progression-free survival is about two months), especially in post-CAR-T large B cell lymphoma patients. Dr. Neelapu notes a roughly 30% duration of response at six months would be viewed favorably.”

BTIG has a Buy rating and a US$34 per share price target on Adicet, which is currently trading at about US$19.88 per share.

In terms of safety, at the DL3+ dose (DL3: 300 million CAR+ cells; DL4: 1 billion CAR+ cells), at which the complete response rate was 86%, there were no grade 3 or higher side effects, including cytokine release syndrome, immune effector cell associated neurotoxicity, graft versus host disease or dose-limiting toxicities. Infections were minimal despite enhanced lymphodepletion being employed.

The “ability to safely redose with a single lymphodepletion regimen supports outpatient-community dosing as key advantages for Adicet’s allogeneic cell therapy,” Zelin added.

BTIG has a Buy rating and a US$34 per share price target on Adicet, which is currently trading at about US$19.88 per share.

Disclosures:

1) Doresa Banning compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.

3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

6) This article does not constitute medical advice. Officers, employees and contributors to Streetwise Reports are not licensed medical professionals. Readers should always contact their healthcare professionals for medical advice.

BTIG Research, Adicet Bio Inc., December 12, 2022

Analyst Certification: I, Justin Zelin, hereby certify that the views about the companies and securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that I have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report.

I, Vishal Sethi, hereby certify that the views about the companies and securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that I have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report.

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Franco’s Largest Asset Is at Risk

Source: Adrian Day  (12/19/22)

Today, expert Adrian Day gives updates on developments affecting several of his favorite companies, mostly positive but with one potentially damaging piece of news.

Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE) shares were down sharply after the government of Panama effectively seized First Quantum’s Cobre Panama mine, on which Franco has its largest stream, representing about 15% of both Net Asset Value and revenues.

The government announced it had ordered the mine shut down and that it was taking over care and maintenance until another “partner” could be found. There has been a long-simmering dispute over payments due from the company to the government. The mine represents the country’s largest investment and a large tax contributor.

The move stunned the local business community as well as Canada’s mining industry. It may be a negotiating tactic by the government, but given the drastic action, it would seem that there is something else behind this. Perhaps the government simply wants to show that it is serious, though that would be a pretty high-stakes move.

We suspect, however, that there will be a resolution. The mine means too much to First Quantum and to the government, whose reputation would be severely damaged were the seizure to hold. In fact, the mine is continuing to operate since halting operations would require resolutions to rescind the contracts, thus allowing time for talks to continue.

Franco Will Survive in Any Event

Franco has a gold stream on the copper mine that has only just achieved a full run rate. With over US$1 billion in cash, Franco can withstand the financial risk. It may yet reach its annual guidance, even with the shortfall from Cobre Panama. More important is whether First Quantum resumes ownership since streams are usually with the operator.

The shares fell from Wednesday’s close of US$144, where they were arguably ahead of themselves anyway. Franco has a rock-solid balance sheet, top management, and a well-diversified portfolio. It is still too early to jump back in — the shares are still well above where they were early last month — and the Panama issue may drag on for a while, but we shall certainly be looking for opportunities to buy shares in this blue chip.

Orogen Cash-flow Positive With Jump in Revenues

Orogen Royalties Inc. (OGN:TSX.V) reported a strong quarter, with royalty revenue from Ermitaño in Mexico up nearly 40% from previous quarters. The company also generated net income from its prospect generation business, involving gains on project sales and active option agreements. It has also been busy with transactions; so far this year, nine deals have been completed adding eight royalties. Overall, the company achieved positive cash flow from operations and ended the quarter with about CA$8.5 in cash and short-term investments.

The year ahead promises to be a very strong one. First Majestic Silver Corp. (FR:TSX; AG:NYSE; FMV:FSE) has indicated that all the ore feed for its mill in 2023 will come from Ermitaño (rather than a blend with the original lower-grade Santa Elena deposit), which should boost Orogen’s revenue.

This Could Be Huge and May Spur M&A

In addition, in February, AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU:NYSE; ANG:JSE; AGG:ASX; AGD:LSE) is expected to publish a pre-feasibility study on its central Silicon deposit as well as a conceptual study of the Merlin deposit, in southern Nevada. Orogen holds a 1% royalty on an area covering both deposits. Altius has a 1.5% royalty over the same area and also claims a royalty of a “larger area of interest,” but Anglo is disputing that, and the claim is currently in arbitration.

We have been looking for some transaction of some type involving Orogen and Altius’ Silicon royalties, but the arbitration may delay this. Anglo has been publicly excited about the Silicon district, indicating it expects a multidecade operation. Silicon itself, known to be mineralized to 625 meters, remains open at depth. The district is clearly large and Anglo is planning to take its time in methodically studying the entire area.

Orogen is one of our top holdings. After meandering around the CA$0,40 mark for the past six months, the stock suddenly jumped last week amid higher-than-normal volume. The company has been doing some investor meetings, and there is no other reason for stock strength that we can discern.

Although we like Orogen and believe it represents strong value even at the higher price, we will hold off on additional buying to see if there is an easing over the normally quiet holiday period. But we want to be building positions.

More Activity and Success at Midland Means Shares Should Be Owned

Midland Exploration Inc. (MD:TSX.V) continues to achieve exploration success at various properties; it is in as good a position as any exploration company for discovery success, while its shares continue to languish, providing an excellent opportunity for investors to continue to accumulate.

First, Midland announced the discovery of a large copper-gold-silver-molybdenum mineralized system on its La Peltrie property in the Detour region of northern Quebec. The property is under the option to Probe Metals. The discovery was made from a single drill hole in the first drilling but suggests a larger system. The companies plan to follow up early next year.

Earlier, Midland had reported the discovery of at least two new gold-bearing structures during a recent prospecting program on the Laflamme joint-venture project in Abitibi, Quebec. This is an early stage, but the area is highly prospective for new discoveries.

Separately, the company announced it was beginning a 10,000-metre drilling program on its gold and nickel-copper projects in the Abitibi region, designed to test more than 40 of its targets developed over the past few years. The targets are on five separate projects, and drilling will continue until March.

Midland has a solid balance sheet and strong management. It has numerous projects, including 10 active joint ventures, across Quebec and is very active. With a market cap of only CA$28 million, it is very undervalued and trading around its all-time lows. It is a strong Buy at this level.

Altius Ups Interest in Renewal Unit

Altius Minerals Corp. (ALS:TSX.V) invested a further US$21 million in Altius Renewal Royalties (ARR.NY), which in turn holds 50% of Great Bear Renewables. This brings Altius’ interest in ARR to 59%. Great Bear, which is already cash flow positive, also announced a US$46 million royalty investment in a California solar project. See also comments above regarding Altius’ Silicon royalty.

Altius is a core holding for us, with innovative management which has the discipline to act counter-cyclically — essential in a highly cyclical sector — and a diversified group of royalties. There are several potential growth opportunities in the next year or two.

We recommend buying back in July when the shares were around US$16. Given the volatility of the stock, we will wait for new buying opportunities.

Nestle Reaffirms Focus and Continues To Grow

Nestle SA (NESN:VX; NSRGY:OTC) confirmed an 8% organic sales growth target and upper single-digit earnings-per-share annual growth. At its investor seminar in Europe, it also confirmed that it would continue to focus on food and beverages, including Nestlé Health Science and nutritional health products, as an additional growth platform.

The company also said it aims to continue increasing its annual dividend each year. Analyst forecasts are for an April dividend of Sfr 3, up from 2.80 earlier this year. Next year’s dividend has not yet been announced. Nestlé also confirmed its ongoing program to repurchase CHF 20 billion of its shares over the period 2022 to 2024.

The company has already bought around CHF 9.7 billion of shares in 2022. Nestlé is a core global holding, and for those who do not already own it, it can be bought at this level.

TOP BUYS, in addition to above, include Ares Capital Corp. (ARCC:NASDAQ).

Adrian Day Disclosures:

Adrian Day’s Global Analyst is distributed for $990 per year by Investment Consultants International, Ltd., P.O. Box 6644, Annapolis, MD 21401. (410) 224-8885. www.AdrianDayGlobalAnalyst.com. Publisher: Adrian Day. Owner: Investment Consultants International, Ltd. Staff may have positions in securities discussed herein. Adrian Day is also President of Global Strategic Management (GSM), a registered investment advisor, and a separate company from this service. In his capacity as GSM president, Adrian Day may be buying or selling for clients securities recommended herein concurrently, before or after recommendations herein, and may be acting for clients in a manner contrary to recommendations herein. This is not a solicitation for GSM. Views herein are the editor’s opinion and not fact. All information is believed to be correct, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The owner and editor are not responsible for errors and omissions. © 2022. Adrian Day’s Global Analyst. Information and advice herein are intended purely for the subscriber’s own account. Under no circumstances may any part of a Global Analyst e-mail be copied or distributed without prior written permission of the editor. Given the nature of this service, we will pursue any violations aggressively.

Disclosures:

1) Adrian Day: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of the following companies mentioned in this article: All. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this article: None. Funds controlled by Adrian Day Asset Management, which is unaffiliated with Adrian Day’s newsletter, hold shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: All. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.

4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services, or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees, or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in the securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees, or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company release. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of First Majestic Silver Corp., a company mentioned in this article.

What’s program-related investment? A management scholar explains one way that foundations support charities without giving money away for good

By Jessica Jones, University of Tennessee 

Most U.S. foundations seek to preserve the money that funds their grants and operations for the long term. They accomplish this by not giving away more money than they earn as returns on the assets held in their endowments.

By law, foundations must give away or spend on their operations a total of at least 5% of what they hold in endowments every year. In practice, foundations spend more than that on their total grants and expenses – around 8% of their assets in 2018, for example.

One way that foundations can stretch their charitable dollars is by making program-related investments – a philanthropic form of lending. Instead of giving money away, those funds are typically repaid several years later. With this model, foundations can recycle some of their charitable funds by dispatching them again.

The investments may count toward that 5% payout minimum and must, in the IRS’ words, “significantly further the foundation’s exempt activities.”

That means a foundation’s program-related investments, like the money it gives away as grants, must support work that’s in keeping with its charitable goals. Foundations can accomplish this by supporting, for instance, affordable housing, backing cancer research efforts or supporting efforts that are a part of their IRS-authorized mission.

Foundations may also use program-related investments to financially back either nonprofits or for-profit social organizations, also known as social enterprises.

Below-market rates

By injecting funds into organizations that would perhaps otherwise be deemed too risky to attract investment, foundations may use some of their assets as a catalyst that can speed up innovation tied to a cause they support through their grants.

The foundations are free to charge any interest rate they see fit, but must be below-market on a risk-adjusted basis. This keeps the program-related investments focused on the charitable mission rather than the opportunity for gaining a high return on their investment.

Program-related investments are most appropriate for organizations that private investors are unlikely to back due to high risks or expectations of limited financial returns, such as small businesses in low-income neighborhoods.

While program-related investments are intended to be repaid and provide heightened accountability for allocating charitable dollars for both the foundation and its recipient, there are no formal penalties if the money is not repaid. This is because the alternative would have been in the form of a grant, where the money was given with no expectation of repayment in the first place.

Why program-related investments matter

Foundations and other large philanthropic institutions have long faced pressure to do more with their money to advance the causes they support.

As of late 2022, U.S. foundations held a total of more than US$1.1 trillion in their endowments and had relegated some of those assets to program-related investments.

Although this practice was established following passage of a comprehensive tax reform package in 1969, relatively few of the nation’s nearly 130,000 foundations have embraced it.

But many of the largest ones, such as the Rockefeller, MacArthur and Bill and Melinda Gates foundations, do regularly make program-related investments to advance their missions.The Conversation

About the Author:

Jessica Jones, Assistant Professor of Management & Entrepreneurship, University of Tennessee

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

JPY is growing. Overview for 20.12.2022

By RoboForex.com

The Japanese yen has grown quite a bit against the US dollar. The current quote is 132.60.

At today’s meeting, the BoJ decided to keep the interest rate without a change at -0.10% a year.

What came as a surprise was the announcement of an unlimited purchase of one to five-year bonds. The sum meant to spent on it from now on is 600 billion yen. On one to three-year bonds, three to five-year bonds, and ten to twenty-five year bonds, 100 billion Japanese yen will be spent, respectively. 300 billion yen more will be spent on five to ten-year bonds. Extra bond purchases are scheduled for 22 December.

The Bank plans to react to each bond issuing, to increase purchases, and expand volumes of operations with fixed-rate securities, when necessary. Moreover, the Bank of Japan will set a fixed rate for auctions with ten-year bonds.

For the yen, everything happening is interventions, either open or hidden.

A peculiar situation has formed: the BoJ decided against changing its ultra-soft policy but brought the debt sector out of balance totally, thus supporting the JPY.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.12.20

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0585
  • Prev Close: 1.0606
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.19

European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Monday that the ECB would continue to raise rates in the Eurozone to curb inflation and is not considering revising its own medium-term inflation target of 2%. Germany’s leading Ifo index rose to 88.6 in December from 86.4 in November. The index is now back to levels last seen in the summer. The outlook for Europe’s largest economy is improving despite the energy crisis.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0549, 1.0483, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193
  • Resistance levels: 1.0641, 1.0695

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is adjusting to the nearest support levels. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and the price is forming a narrow flat. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0549 but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0641, but it is better with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or false breakout because the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0446 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.12.20:
  • – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2143
  • Prev Close: 1.2144
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.01 %

UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt instructed the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to “prepare an economic and fiscal outlook to be presented with the Spring Budget on March 15, 2023. There are no significant events on the economic calendar at the start of the week, so GBP/USD is likely to be dependent on the US dollar index until the UK GDP is released on Thursday. A hawkish Fed forecast is supposed to keep the bulls on the dollar index in play, increasing downward pressure on GBP/USD quotes.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2092, 1.2177, 1.2024, 1.1964, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
  • Resistance levels: 1.2218, 1.2308, 1.2431, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the GBP/USD currency pair trend on the hourly time frame is bullish. But the price is trading below the moving averages and is approaching the priority change level. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are signs of divergence, which indicates some weakness of the sellers. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support level of 1.2092 but with confirmation on the intraday time frames. Sell trades are best sought from the resistance level of 1.2218 but also better with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.2092 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 135.85
  • Prev Close: 136.90
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.77 %

The Bank of Japan shocked the markets by doubling the 10-year bond yield cap, causing the yen to jump and government bonds to fall, which helped pave the way for a possible policy normalization. The Japanese yen strengthened sharply on the back of this news. Kyodo News reported that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is considering a more flexible approach to the 2% inflation target. The Central Bank will likely abandon its soft monetary policy when a new governor of the Bank of Japan is appointed in April 2023. A stronger yen could bring some relief to the Japanese economy, which is struggling with high import costs caused by this year’s yen depreciation.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 133.12, 131.54
  • Resistance levels: 134.73, 135.88, 137.03, 138.00, 139.09

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The price has fallen sharply on the BoJ meeting. The MACD indicator is deeply negative, with no sign of reversal but with a sign of oversold. Buy trades are best considered on intraday time frames from the support level of 133.12, but only with confirmation. Sell deals can be looked for from the resistance level of 134.73, provided there is a reversal.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 139.00, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
News feed for 2022.12.20:
  • – Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 05:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan BoJ Press Conference at 05:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3677
  • Prev Close: 1.3650
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.19 %

Oil prices rose on Monday as optimism over China’s easing COVID-19 restrictions outweighed fears of a global recession affecting energy demand. Oil also received support from the US Department of Energy, which said Friday it would begin buying crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. A rise in oil prices is always accompanied by a fall in USD/CAD since the Canadian dollar is a commodity currency.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3601, 1.3521, 1.3438, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
  • Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. The price is trading above the average lines, but the price has hit a strong resistance level at 1.3700. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but the divergence indicates that the buyers are limited in their potential. Buy trades should be considered only after a breakout and a fixation above 1.3700. Sell deals is better to look for on the intraday time frames from 1.3601, but with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or after a false breakdown.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3386, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
News feed for 2022.12.20:
  • – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Stock indices continue to fall due to recession worries

By JustMarkets

The US stock market fell on Monday for the fourth straight session as investors fear that the Federal Reserve’s campaign to tighten monetary policy could push the US economy into recession. This sentiment is creating downward pressure on major indices. At the stock market’s close, Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.49%, while S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.90%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 1.49% on Monday. All three indices closed the day lower.

Stock markets in Europe mostly rose yesterday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.36%, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.32%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.30%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed on Monday plus 0.40%.

Germany may avoid a recession this winter. The fiscal stimulus packages implemented by the government have prevented the economy from falling off a cliff. But at the same time, the cold winter of the last few days has shown how quickly the nation’s replenished gas reserves could disappear again. Today, many official forecasts suggest that the German economy will return to its average quarterly growth rate by mid-2023.

Oil prices rose Monday as optimism over China’s easing COVID-19 restrictions outweighed fears of a global recession affecting energy demand. Oil also received support from the US Department of Energy, which said Friday it would begin buying crude for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

European Union energy ministers on Monday agreed to limit gas prices as the EU aims to tackle the energy crisis. The restriction could be imposed starting February 15, 2023. Germany voted to support the deal despite expressing concerns about the policy’s impact on Europe’s ability to attract gas supplies. Ministers agreed to impose a cap if prices exceed 180 euros per megawatt hour for three days on the contract for the coming month with the Dutch gas transmission center (TTF), which serves as the European benchmark. The Intercontinental Exchange ICE, which trades the TTF on its exchange in Amsterdam, said last week that it might move TTF trading outside the EU if the bloc caps prices.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 1.05%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.33%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.50%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) rose by 0.83%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended Monday in minus 0.18%.

The Bank of Japan shocked markets Tuesday by doubling the 10-year bond yield cap, causing the yen to spike and government bonds to fall, helping pave the way for a possible policy normalization. The Bank of Japan will now allow Japan’s 10-year bond yield to rise to about 0.5%, up from the previous limit of 0.25%. The Central Bank said the move would enhance the sustainability of its monetary easing, but many economists interpreted the move as laying a preliminary foundation for an exit from a decade of extraordinary stimulus policies.

In Australia, the minutes of the November monetary policy meeting showed that the Australian economy continues to grow steadily. However, economic growth is expected to slow next year. The council expects further interest rate increases in the coming period. The size and timing of future interest rate increases will continue to be determined by incoming data and the Board’s assessment of inflation and labor market prospects.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,817.66 −34.70 (−0.90%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,757.54 −162.92 (−0.49%)

DAX (DE40) 13,942.87 +49.80 (+0.36%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,361.31 +29.19 (+0.40%)

USD Index 104.35 -0.45 (-0.43%)

Important events for today:
  • – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 03:15 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 05:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan BoJ Press Conference at 05:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Why is the Japanese Yen soaring?

By ForexTime

In our latest Week Ahead article (posted on Fridays), we posed the question:

“Can USDJPY break below its 200-day SMA?”

We now have the answer: Yes!

 

But not only did this FX pair go beyond that widely-watched technical indicator, it smashed right past!

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen skyrocketed by nearly 4% against the US dollar, even briefly dipping just below the psychological 132.0 mark, before slightly paring its gains versus the greenback at the time of writing.

 

Consider also how the FXTM JPY index, which measures the Yen’s performance against six of its G10 peers, has also skyrocketed to a 4-month high!

 

These big JPY moves are in response to a totally unexpected move by the Bank of Japan today!

 

How did the Bank of Japan shock markets?

Coming into its final policy meeting of 2022, the BoJ was widely expected to keep its policy settings untouched.

To be fair, Japan’s central bank did keep its policy bank rate at -0.10% and its 10-year yield target was also left at zero percent …

except …

Shocker: the BoJ doubled the limit / cap on yields for Japanese 10-year government bonds now up to 0.50%.

 

Why does this matter? How could higher Japanese yields impact markets?

  1. Higher Japanese yields, stronger Japanese Yen

Recall that, as an oversimplification, rising yields tend to be accompanied by currency strength.

Hence, with the BOJ allowing 10-year yields to rise, this BoJ move was met with a surge in the Japanese Yen.

After all, suppressed Japanese yields have been one of the main reasons why the Yen has struggled in 2022 and is still (barely) the worst-performing G10 currency against the US dollar so far this year.

Though that title (worst G10 performer) could be handed over to the Swedish Krona (SEK) soon, if the Japanese Yen can keep extending today’s advance into the final trading day of 2022.

READ MORE: (21 April 2022) Why is the Yen so weak?

 

  1. Selloff in global stocks / bonds?

Japan is the world’s biggest creditor (which means that the world owes Japan a lot of money).

According to the IMF, as of September 2021, Japanese investors held about US$3.4 trillion worth of assets overseas.

That’s enough money to buy up all of Apple, Alphabet, and Nike (using today’s much-lowered valuations)!

Hence, in light of today’s decision by the BoJ, onshore investors could be tempted to bring some of that money back home to take advantage of those raised yields in Japan.

The repatriation of such funds (presumably to take advantage of higher Japanese yields) may translate into further selling of such foreign assets (e.g. US stocks and bonds).

 

Is the BoJ ready to pivot?

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda went to great lengths today to insist that today’s policy tweak should not be seen as the equivalent of a rate hike.

NOTE: Bond yields tend to move higher when interest rates go up.

Yet, markets are interpreting today’s move as a sign that the BoJ is ready to “normalise” its policy settings.

After all, central bankers around the world have been furiously hiking rates this year, while the BoJ keeps theirs at minus 0.1%.

 

Here’s one last reference (I promise) to last Friday’s Week Ahead article, which carried this line:

… the mere hint that the BOJ is finally ready to hop onto this global policy tightening bandwagon could jolt the Japanese Yen.

And sure enough, that’s exactly what happened today.

Instead of the forecasts as of yesterday for two BOJ rate hikes by September 2023, markets have now priced in 3 rate hikes by then (Q3 3023).

Can the Yen climb even higher?

Overall, if markets build on this idea (or if the BoJ fails to quash such a notion) that today’s move is truly a precursor to the BoJ’s eventual exit out of negative interest rates …

that should pave the way for USDJPY to trade in sub-130 region in the months ahead.

In light of today’s BoJ shocker, markets have almost doubled the odds of USDJPY trading below 130.0 in Q1 2023, from 23% yesterday, now up to 44%.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Inflation, unemployment, the housing crisis and a possible recession: Two economists forecast what’s ahead in 2023

By D. Brian Blank, Mississippi State University and Rodney Ramcharan, University of Southern California 

With the current U.S. inflation rate at 7.1%, interest rates rising and housing costs up, many Americans are wondering if a recession is looming.

Two economists discussed that and more in a recent wide-ranging and exclusive interview for The Conversation.
Brian Blank is a finance professor at Mississippi State University who specializes in the study of corporations and how they respond to economic downturns. Rodney Ramcharan is an economist at the University of Southern California who previously held posts with the Federal Reserve and the International Monetary Fund.

Both were interviewed by Bryan Keogh, deputy managing editor and senior editor of economy and business for The Conversation.

Below are some highlights from the discussion. Answers have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Brian Blank and Rodney Ramcharan talk about the economic outlook for 2023.

Are we headed for a recession in 2023?

Brian Blank: The consensus view among most forecasters is that there is a recession coming at some point, maybe in the middle of next year. I’m a little bit more optimistic than that consensus.

People have been calling for a recession for months now, and this seems to be the most anticipated recession on record. I think that it could still be a ways off. Consumer balance sheets are still relatively strong, stronger than we’ve seen them for most periods.

I think that the labor market is going to remain hotter than people have expected. Right now, over the last eight months, the labor market has added more jobs than anticipated, which is one of the strongest streaks on record. And I think that until consumer balance sheets weaken considerably, we can expect consumer spending, which is the largest part of the economy, to continue to grow quickly.

[But this] doesn’t mean that a recession is not coming. There’s always a recession somewhere down the road.

Rodney Ramcharan: Indeed, yes, there’s a likelihood that the economy is going to contract in the next nine months. The president of the New York Fed expects the unemployment rate to go up from 3.5% currently to somewhere between 4% to 5% in the next year. And I think that will be consistent with a recession.

In terms of how much worse it can be beyond that, it’s going to depend on a number of things. It could depend on whether the Fed is going to accept a higher inflation rate over the medium term or whether it’s really committed to getting the inflation rate down to the 2% rate. So I think that’s the trade-off.

Will unemployment go up?

Blank: [Unemployment] hasn’t risen much, and maybe it’ll pick up to somewhere close to 4%. Many are expecting something like four and a half percent. And I think that’s certainly possible. And I think that we can see small upticks in the coming months.

But I don’t think it’s going to rise as quickly as some people are expecting, in part because what we’ve seen so far is a lack of labor force participation. Until more people enter the labor market, I think there are going to be plenty of jobs to go around.

What is your outlook on interest rates?

Ramcharan: As people find it more and more difficult to find jobs, or to get jobs as they begin to lose jobs, I think that’s going to dampen spending. And we’re seeing that now as the cost of borrowing has gone up sharply, and the Fed is expecting that.

The expectation is the federal funds rate will go up to 5% by next year. If you tack on another couple of points, because of the risk involved, then the cost to borrow to buy a home could potentially get up to 8% for some people. And that could be very expensive.

And the flip side of this for businesses is there’s potentially going to be a slowdown in cash flow. If consumers are not spending, then the revenues that businesses depend on to make investments might not be there.

The additional piece in this puzzle is what the banks will then do. I think banks are going to begin to curtail the extension of credit. So not only will interest rates go up for the typical consumer and the typical business, it’s also likely that they are more likely to experience denial of credit, and so that should together begin to slow spending quite a bit.

After massive increases in housing prices, what caused them to suddenly drop?

Ramcharan: As the Fed lowered interest rates, there was a massive shift among the population for various reasons. They decided that housing was the right investment or the right thing. And so when 50 million people all collectively decide to buy homes, the supply of homes is reasonably constrained in the short run. And so that led to this massive increase in house prices and in rents.

In the last three months, the housing market has cooled sharply. We’re now seeing house prices beginning to fall. I would imagine, going forward, the housing market cooling is going to be a major driver behind the slowdown in the inflation rate and in real estate investment trusts. So that’s positive.

Our recent election just changed the composition of Congress. How will that affect the economy?

Blank: Certainly, when we have a divided Congress, we’re less likely to see decisions made that involve passing legislation that might support the economy. And I think it’s likely the Republican House is going to become a little bit more conservative with spending.

And so if we do start to see a downturn, I think you’re less likely to see legislation that might help support an economy that could be in need of it. That is going to make the job of the Federal Reserve more important.

How certain are these predictions?

Ramcharan: I just want to be careful here and let your viewers know that we’re making these statements based on theory, because the inflation that we’re experiencing now comes about from a pandemic, and there really is no evidence, there’s no data available, that people can look to to say, “What happens to an economy after a pandemic?” That data does not exist.

So we’re trying to piece together the data we do have with the theories we do have, but there’s a huge band of uncertainty about what’s going to happen.

Watch the full interview here.The Conversation

About the Authors:

D. Brian Blank, Assistant Professor of Finance, Mississippi State University and Rodney Ramcharan, Professor of Finance and Business Economics, University of Southern California

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.