Archive for Financial News – Page 205

19 May

Stock markets soar, investors warned of complacency

By George Prior

Stock markets are buoyant on optimism that the US will raise its debt ceiling, avoiding a default and global economic fallout, but investors now need to avoid complacency, warns the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The warning from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes as Wall Street’s S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite both reached their highest levels since August 2022, up 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively, on Thursday.

Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific markets rose on Friday and European markets are set to do the same at the open. US futures are also ticking higher.

The deVere CEO says: “A huge sense of relief is sweeping across stock markets after US policymakers said that a bill to raise the debt ceiling in the world’s largest economy may be put to a vote next week, raising the possibility of a deal to avoid a government default and the serious global economic repercussions that would follow.

“The reports coming out of Washington help restore confidence, stability and certainty – which markets thrive on – as they indicate that the US government will continue to meet its financial commitments.”

He continues: “However, investors must avoid complacency.

“While stock markets are enjoying this wave of buoyancy, with investors appearing to be looking beyond the current interest rate cycle and ahead to the next upswing in the economic cycle, core major bond markets continue to be marked by inverted yield curves, which suggest a recession is looming.

“The inverted yield curve indicates a recession is ahead because it’s a sign of a tight credit market and weak economic growth. The inversion has preceded most US recessions – which, of course, have a huge drag on the global economy – since 1950.

“With this disconnect between stocks and bonds, investors should brace themselves for significant volatility in global financial markets over the next few weeks. We could see a 10% correction.”

deVere believes that four key sectors would be mostly resilient in a recession. These include commodities, such as oil, as their prices typically rise in response to inflation; consumer staples like food, and hygiene products, as demand is likely to remain relatively stable; healthcare, as it provides essential services that are less affected by economic cycles; and utilities, including electricity, gas, and water as demand will also be typically consistent.

“While a resolution of the debt ceiling crisis may provide a temporary relief rally, it doesn’t guarantee sustained market growth or shield against other market risks.

“Investors need to be alive to the real challenges potentially coming down the track that could hit their returns if their portfolios are not properly diversified.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Financial News Stock Market News
19 May

Core inflation in Japan rose again to a 40-year high. Gold falls amid rising US government bonds

By JustMarkets

US stock indices rose yesterday, despite the growth of the dollar index. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.34%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.94%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.51%.

White House economic adviser Lael Brainard said Thursday that a default on the $31.4 trillion US debt would lead to a recession in the US economy. Brainard also pointed out that Biden’s negotiating team has been instructed not to agree to any Republican proposal to raise the debt ceiling that would deprive Americans of health care or plunge any of them into poverty. Republicans, who are threatening to default on the government, are trying to convince Democrats to accept tougher job requirements for some federal aid programs, as well as cut spending in exchange for lifting the borrowing limit.

“Hawkish” Fed officials (Laurie Logan and James Bullard) oppose a June rate hike pause. On Thursday, interest rate futures markets showed a 33.3% chance of a rate hike in June, up from a 90% chance just a week ago. Fed governor and vice presidential candidate Philip Jefferson, speaking Thursday, also said that while progress on inflation is slowing, it is too early to feel the full impact of these rapid rate hikes. Powell is scheduled to speak on Friday, and investors expect him to update his views in light of new economic data.

Shares of Walmart Inc (WMT) jumped by 1.3% after the largest US retailer reported first-quarter sales were up 8%.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) added 1.33%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) decreased by 0.64% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) was up 0.17% Thursday, Britain’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed the day positive 0.25%.

The Turkish lira fell to a record low against the dollar on Thursday after incumbent President Tayyip Erdogan’s lead in the presidential election came as a surprise, while the country’s sovereign dollar bonds stabilized after a three-day drop following the election.

Oil fell by 1% Thursday as the dollar continued to rise on expectations of uncertainty in talks over a higher US government debt ceiling. The oil refineries in China in April increased by 18.9% compared to last year. Chinese refineries maintained a high growth rate to meet recovering domestic fuel demand and build stocks ahead of the summer tourist season.

The US dollar approached a six-month high against the yen on Friday amid rising US Treasury bond yields as uncertainty over debt ceiling talks in Washington raised expectations of higher interest rates. Gold has an inverse correlation to the dollar index and government bond yields, which is why it fell for a third straight day. But UBS analysts predict gold will reach $2,100 by the end of 2023 and $2,200 an ounce by March 2024, urging investors to keep the yellow metal in their portfolios.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.60% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.26% over the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.85%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) was 0.28% lower, while Australian S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed positive 0.52%.

Japan’s nationwide core consumer price index rose from 3.1% to 3.4% year-over-year, returning to 40-year highs after declining in the first quarter and foreshadowing increased pressure on the Bank of Japan to finally tighten policy this year.

Preliminary polls suggest that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will raise interest rates by another plus 0.25% at its May 24 meeting, but there will be a pause after that. The country’s largest banks, ANZ, ASB, Bank of New Zealand, Kiwi Bank, and Westpac, are also expecting a 25 basis point increase next week. Although the RBNZ was one of the first major global central banks to tighten monetary policy, inflation in the first quarter is still 6.7%, more than three times the RBNZ target of 2.0%.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,198.05 +39.28 (+0.94%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,535.91 +115.14 (+0.34%)

DAX (DE40) 16,163.36 +212.06 (+1.33%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,742.30 +19.07 (+0.25%)

USD Index 103.53 +0.65 +0.63%

Important events for today:
  • – New Zealand Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 15:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 22:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
18 May

Long Live SOFR for Swaps

By Daniel Flaim, Managing Director, North America Interest Rate Derivatives

New York, New York | May 18, 2023 – It is officially the end of the line for LIBOR. After some 30+ years as “the world’s most important number,” and the last six years on an extended farewell tour, the London Interbank Offered Rate will officially be retired as a benchmark for U.S. dollar swaps transactions. CME Group completed its conversion to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) as the standard benchmark reference for over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives trades in April and LCH will complete its conversion containing U.S. dollar LIBOR vs. fixed interest rate swaps on May 20. By June, roughly $60 trillion in U.S. dollar contracts will be secured to SOFR.

Regulators first announced plans to phase out LIBOR in 2017, ushering in a protracted death march that saw the slow-but-steady migration away from the decades-old benchmark. Ultimately, the Alternative Reference Rates Committee (ARRC) selected SOFR as the overnight benchmark rate to use in certain new U.S. dollar derivatives and financial contracts, and the financial industry—including regulators, central banks, trading venues and other market participants—have spent the last several years getting ready for the transition.

Over the course of that multi-year migration, we’ve learned some important lessons:

Big and complicated problems can be solved when the industry sets its collective mind to something. This transition was no small feat but market participants and regulators quickly rallied together to organize and coordinate efforts ahead of upcoming target deadlines. The end result was a relatively smooth process thanks to solid preparation, decisive action and regular communications.

January 2022 was the moment of reckoning. Migration away from LIBOR was slow and steady before taking a drastic turn ahead of the January 2022 deadline for no new LIBOR origination. By February 2022, SOFR trading on Tradeweb made up 72% of all new risk, and across our business approximately 96% of our most active clients globally trading USD swaps were using SOFR.

This playbook can be utilized elsewhere. We have been pleased to see that the insights and lessons learned from the U.S. dollar LIBOR transition have already extended beyond our markets and into non-LIBOR jurisdictions, further illustrating the permanent impact this movement has had on our global markets.

Why LIBOR Was So Entrenched

Getting there was no small achievement. LIBOR didn’t earn its reputation as “the world’s most important number” for nothing. As the benchmark evolved over the last three decades, it’s been sliced and diced into multiple durations and both backward-looking and forward-looking rates that are used for everything from projecting market expectations for the cost of borrowing to the underlying benchmark for U.S. dollar swaps contracts. Financial technology also grew up around LIBOR, with virtually every piece of financial services software and nearly every financial model incorporating some link to the benchmark.

Thankfully, due to close collaboration between industry stakeholders including trading platforms, dealers and clients, clearinghouses and operators of order management systems, over the course of the transition period, this final step in the migration from LIBOR to SOFR in the swaps market is anticipated to be a smooth one.

Orderly Transition to a New Standard

In fact, much of the heavy lifting has already been done. As indicated in the chart below, the percentage of new U.S. dollar swaps trades benchmarked to SOFR and executed on the Tradeweb platform started to trend upward in August of 2021. That date followed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Market Risk Advisory Committee (MRAC) SOFR First recommendation, which introduced a phased approach to the SOFR transition. In the following months, SOFR trading activity on the Tradeweb platform increased as clients began to offset their existing U.S. dollar LIBOR risk, with new SOFR activity reaching parity with LIBOR by January 2022, in response to the upcoming deadline which imposed restrictions on new use of U.S. dollar LIBOR. By February 2022, trading volume benchmarked to SOFR on the Tradeweb platform increased over 50% versus the previous month. In 2022 alone, we had nearly $21 trillion traded in SOFR on the platform.

Source: TW SEF, % of Delta, excluding basis and inflation swaps

Together, the steady forward march toward SOFR adoption for new trades, along with the industry’s diligent efforts to smooth the migration of existing contracts benchmarked to LIBOR, has helped pave the way for an incredibly orderly transition.

Following the success of the LIBOR transition in the U.S. dollar market, we’ve seen similar work being done in non-LIBOR jurisdictions, including Canada. Led by the Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Committee (CARR), Canada is shifting away from the benchmark Canadian Dollar Offered Rate (CDOR) to Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA) as the key Canadian interest rate benchmark. Globally, the LIBOR transition has served as a shining example of industry collaboration overcoming institutional inertia and debunking the myth that things need to be done a certain way just because that’s how they’ve always been done.

It took six years and there was no shortage of doubt and concern along the way, but the transition that the New York Federal Reserve called “arguably one of the most significant and complex challenges that financial markets will ever confront,” is about to be complete. It should come as a cause for celebration to the countless market participants who weren’t afraid to tweak the process, experiment with new standards and collaborate with peers to transform and modernize critical market infrastructure.

Now, as a result of this effort by so many parties, our markets are running smoothly and efficiently and we have proven once again how resilient and innovative our industry can be when we set our sights on a common goal. For our part at Tradeweb, we look forward to continuing to refine our workflows along with the some of the most accurate and timely pricing and reference data available to ensure our clients are operating in a transparent, efficient marketplace.

About Tradeweb Markets

Tradeweb Markets Inc. (Nasdaq: TW) is a leading, global operator of electronic marketplaces for rates, credit, equities and money markets. Founded in 1996, Tradeweb provides access to markets, data and analytics, electronic trading, straight-through-processing and reporting for more than 40 products to clients in the institutional, wholesale and retail markets. Advanced technologies developed by Tradeweb enhance price discovery, order execution and trade workflows while allowing for greater scale and helping to reduce risks in client trading operations. Tradeweb serves approximately 2,500 clients in more than 65 countries. On average, Tradeweb facilitated more than $1.1 trillion in notional value traded per day over the past four quarters. For more information, please go to www.tradeweb.com. 

Forward-Looking Statements

This release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Statements related to, among other things, our outlook and future performance, the industry and markets in which we operate, our expectations, beliefs, plans, strategies, objectives, prospects and assumptions and future events are forward-looking statements. We have based these forward-looking statements on our current expectations, assumptions, estimates and projections. While we believe these expectations, assumptions, estimates and projections are reasonable, such forward-looking statements are only predictions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. These and other important factors, including those discussed under the heading “Risk Factors” in documents of Tradeweb Markets Inc. on file with or furnished to the SEC, may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Given these risks and uncertainties, you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements contained in this release are not guarantees of future performance and our actual results of operations, financial condition or liquidity, and the development of the industry and markets in which we operate, may differ materially from the forward-looking statements contained in this release. In addition, even if our results of operations, financial condition or liquidity, and events in the industry and markets in which we operate, are consistent with the forward-looking statements contained in this release, they may not be predictive of results or developments in future periods. Any forward-looking statement that we make in this release speaks only as of the date of such statement. Except as required by law, we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise, or to publicly announce any update or revision to, any of the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, after the date of this release.

Bonds Finance Press Release Financial News
18 May

Debt ceiling talks continue. Australian labor market shows weakness

By JustMarkets

The US stock indices rose on Wednesday amid hopes that Congress will work out an agreement to raise the national debt ceiling, allowing the US to avoid defaulting on its obligations. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 1.24%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.19%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.28%. After yesterday’s meeting, lawmakers expressed optimism that a default can be avoided. US President Biden will travel to Japan today for a meeting of G-7 world leaders, but he cut the rest of his trip to Asia while the debt ceiling problem persists.

Debt negotiation is just one issue that has investors worried. Concerns are also high about a possible recession, which could well start later this year because of much higher interest rates. One of the main positives that has kept the economy out of recession so far has been steady spending by US households. They have continued to spend even as manufacturing, the US banking system, and other parts of the economy collapsed under the pressure of high-interest rates.

Shares of Tesla Inc (TSLA) jumped more than 4% after yesterday’s annual shareholder meeting, at which CEO Elon Musk said he intends to remain in office. It was also announced that the company will begin shipping its long-awaited Cybertruck later this year.

According to economic data, the number of new housing starts in the US in April was in line with expectations, but the numbers for March were revised downward.

Equity markets in Europe traded yesterday without a single dynamic. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.34%, French CAC 40 (FR40) decreased by 0.09% yesterday, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.22% on Wednesday, British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.32%.

The meeting of the G-7 countries will be held this weekend. It is noteworthy that China was not invited to the summit. The primary purpose of the meeting is to strengthen unity against challenges from Beijing and Moscow. All G7 countries – the United States, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Canada, and Italy are closely linked economically with China, the world’s second-largest economy and a key global manufacturing base and market. Countries are puzzling over how to alert China to what they see as a threat to global supply chains and economic security without alienating a powerful and important trading partner.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday, except the Japanese Index. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.84%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.71% over the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 2.09%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) was down by 0.57%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended Wednesday down 0.37%. A larger-than-expected reduction in Japan’s trade deficit helped Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index (JP225) extend its winning streak for the sixth consecutive session.

Australia’s labor market unexpectedly contracted in April, and unemployment rose amid some cooling economic activity. Total national employment fell by 4,300 in April to 13.9 million, with expectations of an increase of 25,000. As a result, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% to 3.7%. The potential cooling in the labor market is also due to the fact that interest rates in Australia have reached a ten-year high. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has warned that employment is likely to fall further this year as rates remain high or possibly increase further. Weakness in the labor market also gives the RBA less room to raise rates further.

New Zealand on Thursday announced a budget deficit more significant than originally forecast as tax cuts, rising inflation, and a slowing economy hit the nation’s treasury, forcing the government to minimize new spending and increase its bond program. New Zealand’s finance minister announced billions to rebuild infrastructure after severe weather earlier this year and some new initiatives to help those struggling with increased spending.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,158.77 +48.87 (+1.19%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,420.77 +408.63 (+1.24%)

DAX (DE40) 15,951.30 +53.37 (+0.34%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,723.23 −27.85 (−0.36%)

USD Index 102.89 +0.33 +0.32%

Important events for today:
  • – New Zealand Producer Price Index (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – New Zealand Annual Budget Release at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 12:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
  • – Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
17 May

A decline in US retail sales indicates consumer weakness. Gold declines, but the outlook remains bullish

By JustMarkets

At yesterday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.01%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.64%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday down by 0.18%. After disappointing quarterly results, falling shares of Home Depot put pressure on shares. Home Depot (HD) stock fell more than 2% after reporting quarterly earnings that fell short of Wall Street expectations due to falling lumber prices. Retailer sentiment was also hurt by US retail sales data that fell short of expectations, signaling weaker consumer sentiment. The energy sector was the biggest headwind for the overall market, as weaker-than-expected economic data from China overshadowed expectations for higher energy demand.

Other economic data showed that US industrial production and manufacturing activity rose unexpectedly in April. Total industrial production increased by 0.5% m/m in April. The US manufacturing production rose by 1.0% m/m, beating expectations of 0.1%.

US President Joe Biden will partially shorten his trip to the G-7 leaders’ summit to intensify efforts to make progress on the debt ceiling agreement. Policymakers remain unable to reach a consensus, which increases the likelihood of a US default on June 1st.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.12%, French CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.16% yesterday, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.11% Tuesday, British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed the day negative by 0.34%.

Eurozone GDP grew by a modest 0.1% over Q1 2023. The ZEW Institute report showed that the economic prospects of Germany and the Eurozone are starting to deteriorate again, and the reason for that is the steady inflation and rising interest rates.

Gold, the supposed hedge against economic and political turmoil, fell below $2,000 for the first time since early May. Economists are attributing the decline in gold prices to a possible bipartisan deal that would end the impasse and avoid a US default. But in the medium term, even if the debt ceiling is raised, the US Federal Reserve will press pause on its interest-rate hike cycle this summer, causing US government bond yields to begin falling, giving a boost to gold and silver.

The International Energy Agency raised its forecast for global oil demand by 200,000 BPD to a record 102 million BPD. Demand on the eve of the summer months is slowly but growing. With lower production, the bullish outlook for oil remains until autumn.

Asian markets traded yesterday without a single dynamic. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.73% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.39% on the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.04% on the day, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) fell by 0.61%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.45% on Tuesday.

The Nikkei 225 index jumped by 0.9% to a near 20-month high, continuing its recent gains as data showed Japan’s GDP grew more than expected in the first quarter, boosted mainly by strong consumer spending and outbound tourism. But the outlook for the economy remains bleak amid a sustained downturn in Japan’s largest export markets in the West.

Wage growth in Australia hit a decade high, but quarterly growth fell short of forecasts. The wage price index rose by 0.8% in the March quarter from the previous quarter. This provides some temporary solace for policymakers who fear that the price and wage spiral could lead to more rate hikes. Annual wage growth is expected to peak at 4.0% later this year and then decline to 3.7% by mid-2025.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,109.90 −26.38 (−0.64%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,012.14 −336.46 (−1.01%)

DAX (DE40) 15,897.93 −19.31 (−0.12%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,751.08 −26.62 (−0.34%)

USD Index 102.63 +0.19 +0.19%

Important events for today:
  • – Japan GDP (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Wage Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 12:50 (GMT+3);
  • – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
16 May

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 16.05.2023 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has secured under the Tenkan-Sen line of the indicator. The instrument is going below the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 1.0905 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.0735. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a rebound from the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the upper border of the Cloud, securing above 1.1015, which will mean further growth to 1.1105.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has left the borders of the bullish channel. The instrument is going below the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the Tenkan-Sen line at 1.2495 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.2315. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a rebound from the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the upper border of the Cloud, securing above 1.2605, which will mean further growth to 1.2695.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is pushing off the lower border of the bullish channel. The instrument is going below the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 0.6235 is expected, followed by a decline to 0.6055. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the upper border of the Cloud, securing above 0.6325, which will mean further growth to 0.6415. Meanwhile, the decline can be confirmed by a breakout of the lower border of the bullish channel, securing under 0.6135.

NZDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
16 May

Sentiment Fragile Amid US Debt Ceiling Standoff

By ForexTime

Most Asian equities were mixed on Tuesday as investors digested weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data. Industrial production and retail sales data from the world’s second-largest economy missed expectations in April, pointing to further signs of an uneven recovery. European futures are pointing to a flat open as political and economic uncertainty rocked sentiment in the region. Despite Wall Street closing higher in the previous session, US equity futures remain shaky ahead of a debt limit meeting between US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Tuesday. In the currency space, the dollar steadied while the Australian Dollar weakened against every single G10 currency following the disappointing China data. Regarding commodities, gold seems to be on standby while oil extended gains from the prior session as the US government confirmed plans to refill its strategic reserves.

This morning’s data revealed that the rate of UK unemployment rose to 3.9% in the three months to March, up from 3.8% in the previous quarter. The claimant count jumped by 46.7k in April, surpassing the 26.5k in the previous month. Average earnings, including bonuses, increased 5.8% year-over-year in March versus 5.8% in February. GBPUSD fell in response to the report as deteriorating labour market conditions fuelled expectations around the BoE pausing rate hikes.

Currency spotlight – EURUSD

The data dump from Europe this morning could trigger fresh volatility in EURUSD. Much attention will be directed towards the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and second estimate of first quarter GDP. The German business survey is forecast to decline to -5 in May compared to 4.1 in April. Ultimately, a set of disappointing economic figures may question the ECB’s ability to keep hiking rates, weakening the euro as a result. Taking a look at the technical picture, EURUSD remains under pressure on the daily charts. A solid breakdown below the 1.0845 support could open the doors towards 1.0800, a level where the 100-day SMA resides.

Another volatile week for USD?

This could be a wild week for the dollar thanks to the cocktail of political uncertainty, global growth fears, key US economic data, and speeches from numerous Federal Reserve officials.

All eyes will be on the ongoing drama regarding the debt limit with a meeting between US President Joe Biden and top lawmakers planned for Tuesday afternoon. On the data front, investors will be presented with key reports from economies across the world which could fuel concerns over global growth if they disappoint. The latest US retail sales figures among other data could influence expectations around the Fed’s next move, especially after the central bank stressed that incoming data would influence monetary policy decisions. The chorus of Fed speakers throughout the week may also add to dollar volatility, especially if more clues are offered on the Fed’s policy path.

Commodity Spotlight – Gold

Gold slipped towards the psychological $2000 level on Tuesday morning as investors braced for a key meeting between President Biden and key lawmakers to resolve the debt ceiling stalemate. The precious metal is likely to draw support from the growing fears and jitters around the threat of a potential default. Expect gold prices to be also influenced by global growth fears and expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. Looking at the technical picture, the precious metal remains trapped within a very wide range on the daily charts. Should $2000 prove to be unreliable support, prices may sink toward $1970. Alternatively, a rebound from $2000 could open a path back towards $2015 and $2032, respectively.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
16 May

China’s economic data once again falls short of expectations. Gold regains its shelter asset status

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.14%, and the S&P 500 (US500) was up by 0.30%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday positive by 0.66%. Reports of progress in the debt ceiling negotiations fuel investor optimism that US lawmakers can break the current impasse and agree to increase the federal budget and prevent the United States from defaulting on its debt. President Biden is scheduled to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders today.

Beyond politics, the focus remains on regional banks, which have partially recovered from last week’s sell-off: PacWest Bancorp (PACW) jumped by 17%, Comerica Inc (CMA) increased by 7%, and Zions Bancorporation (ZION) has added over 8% yesterday. Nevertheless, despite the rally, concerns about the banking sector remain. Data released on Friday showed that US commercial bank deposits fell for the second week in a row, and lending activity declined strongly after a month of growth.

As for economic indicators, the Empire State manufacturing index for May fell more than expected, indicating a continued slowdown in manufacturing activity.

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) got approval from EU antitrust regulators to buy Activision Blizzard (ATVI) for $69 billion. But Microsoft will also have to appeal against the decision of the British Competition Authority, which had earlier blocked the deal.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.02%, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.05%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.35% on Monday, British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed the day up by 0.30%.

Oil prices increased yesterday as the US government confirmed plans to start replenishing its depleted strategic oil reserves (SPR). The Department of Energy (DOE) said on Monday that it would purchase up to 3 million barrels of oil for SPR. Oil prices were also helped by news of supply cuts in Canada due to wildfires.

Gold prices fell slightly yesterday as a number of Federal Reserve officials warned that interest rates could still rise amid relatively high inflation and a robust labor market. Gold has an inverse correlation to government bond yields, which tend to rise when rates rise. Nevertheless, gold’s medium-term trend remains bullish. Unless the US somehow raises the government debt ceiling, investors will sell off dollars in favor of gold as a shelter asset. If there is no US default, there is a high probability of a pause by the Fed in June, which would also be a green flag for gold.

Asian markets rose strongly yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.81%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 1.33%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 1.75%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) added 0.46%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up by 0.14% over the Monday.

Industrial production in China rose less than expected in April (actual 5.6%, expectations 10.9%). Lower-than-expected retail sales data (actual 18.4%, expectations 21%) suggest a sluggish economic recovery this year. Fixed-asset investment, a key indicator of business sentiment for the coming months, rose by 4.7% in April, below the 5.5% increase expected and slower than the 5.1% increase seen in March. The unemployment rate fell from 5.3% to 5.2%. But looking at the numbers from a non-expected perspective, China’s economy is recovering, but not at such a fast pace.

S&P 500 (F) (US500)  4,136.28 +12.20 (+0.30%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,348.60 +47.98 (+0.14%)

DAX (DE40) 15,917.24 +3.42 (+0.021%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,777.70 +23.08 (+0.30%)

USD Index 102.71 +0.65 +0.63%

Important events for today:
  • – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Trade Balance (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 19:15 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
15 May

Crude Oil Price Continues to Fall

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Oil continues to fall at the start of another May week. A barrel of Brent crude fell to 73.70 USD.

The sell-off in the commodities market has been ongoing for several weeks. Investors tried to get a foothold above 78.00 USD, but their attempts failed. The OPEC report, which normally looks optimistic, did not give investors any reason to buy this time. The main trigger for selling remains fears that the high interest rates around the world will put pressure on global economic activity. This, in turn, will reduce the demand for energy commodities.

Data from Baker Hughes showed that US drilling activity declined. Gas rigs were primarily affected (-16) but oil rigs also declined (-2).

On H4, Brent has worked its way up to the 77.44 level.  The market continues to develop a correction today. A decline to 72.33 is expected, followed by a new wave of growth to 80.07. After its breakdown, a new growth potential could open to the level of 87.77. The target is local. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator: its signal line is below zero, with growth to new highs expected.

On H1, a consolidation range has formed around the 74.87 level. The market has escaped it downwards today. A decline to 72.56 is expected, followed by a rise to 74.87 and a decline to 72.33. After the price reaches this level, a wave of growth to 80.00 could begin. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator: Its signal line is breaking through the level of 20 upwards, aiming at 50. A rebound from this level is expected, followed by a new decline to 20. Next, growth to 80 could follow.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News
15 May

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC). Overview for 10.05.2023

By RoboForex.com

The BTC rate stabilised around 27,413 USD on Monday. The weekly loss is estimated at 2%.

The leading cryptocurrency rose today above intermediate resistance at 27,300 USD. This may force sellers to reduce volumes, but for a solid rise, the quotes need to secure above the 29,300 USD level. The target to secure is at 31,500 USD and from there to 32,700 USD.

The market focus is on the situation with the US budget and the public debt limit. Time is running out: by 1 June, the federal government may run out of money to finance its own needs. If this happens, BTC could become a defensive asset for a while.

The cryptocurrency market capitalisation has recovered to 1.143 trillion USD, with BTC’s share returning to 46.5% and ETH’s share rising to 19.7%.

The number of investors in BTC is on the rise

Glassnode notes that the number of Bitcoin addresses holding at least 1 BTC has surpassed the one million mark. According to the service, this number has increased by 190,000 since 1 February 2022.

US cryptocurrency companies move to Bermuda

US cryptocurrency companies are increasingly choosing the jurisdiction of Bermuda to continue their operations as the US regulatory environment becomes increasingly complex and aggressive towards the industry. Coinbase was previously licensed by the Bermuda Monetary Authority.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News
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