Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 194

Inflation continues to fall in China. The US labor market remains strong

On Friday, at the close of the stock market Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.55% (-0.56% for the week), S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.29% (-0.53% for the week). NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.13% on Friday (-0.43% for the week).

The US labor market added 209,000 jobs in June, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.6% from 3.7%. This number is slightly below economists’ expectations of 225,000 jobs. It’s also a slowdown from the previous month’s reading, which was revised downward by 33,000 to 306,000. But overall, despite some cooling, the labor market remains resilient. The Fed is keeping a close eye on labor market indicators and is concerned that demand for workers will drive more robust wage growth and, in turn, inflation. Therefore, the Fed wants to see an increase in unemployment first to end the tightening cycle.

Another concern for the Fed today continues to be the strong growth shown by the US service sector, as reflected by the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which showed a strong side of the economy in June compared to May. This could keep the service sector relatively strong if the sector does not slow in the second half of the year.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat on Friday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.48% (-3.61% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.42% on Friday (-4.09% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.36% (-3.68% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.32% (-3.65% for the week).

European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos expressed some optimism that core inflation may peak. A decline in core price growth could lead to a potential pause in rate hikes. But the politician also added that incoming data will also guide the ECB. Yannis Stournaras, governor of the Bank of Greece and one of the ECB’s most dovish policymakers, echoed this view Friday. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said Friday that the bank would not “stand idly by” if there were simultaneous increases in profits and wages, given persistently high inflation in the region.

On Sunday, French Central Bank governor François Villeroy de Galhau opposed a proposal to raise the European Central Bank’s inflation target to 2%. Villeroy, who sits on the ECB’s governing council, also said that interest rate hikes are close to the maximum and that rates will be held at elevated levels long enough for their impact on the economy to be felt.

Oil prices fell in Asian trading Monday as investors are cautious ahead of important US economic data on inflation this week, although expected crude supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia will keep oil from falling.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 3.37% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 2.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 3.35%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was negative by 2.24%.

China’s inflation data for June showed a decline. Over the last month, consumer prices declined by 0.2%, and the annual Consumer Price Index remained unchanged at 0.2%. The producer price index, which shows the rate of inflation between factories and plants, fell from minus 4.6% to minus 5.4%, adding to deflationary pressures. On the other hand, deflationary momentum from China may help offset service-driven inflation in developed countries over time.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,398.95 −12.64 (−0.29%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,734.88 −187.38 (−0.55%)

DAX (DE40) 15,603.40 +74.86 (+0.48%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,256.94 −23.56 (−0.32%)

USD Index 102.27 −0.90 (−0.87%)

Important events for today:

– China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Daly Speaks at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 22:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

08 Jul

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Changes led by Brent Crude Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Monday July 03 2023 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Crude Oil

COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Brent Crude Oil (17,049 contracts) with WTI Crude Oil (3,041 contracts) and Heating Oil (3,599 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-5,975 contracts) with Gasoline (-1,666 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-350 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,816,043	37	141,429	1	-170,148	99	28,719	37
Gold	448,063	12	163,097	49	-184,717	53	21,620	34
Silver	114,421	0	17,990	44	-29,569	58	11,579	31
Copper	204,399	46	1,888	32	-4,003	68	2,115	32
Palladium	14,781	100	-7,890	0	8,358	100	-468	14
Platinum	69,383	70	8,067	34	-13,570	65	5,503	42
Natural Gas	1,241,419	57	-98,775	33	68,313	67	30,462	52
Brent	127,019	1	-39,873	34	38,114	70	1,759	33
Heating Oil	305,681	38	27,699	78	-41,810	40	14,111	47
Soybeans	610,352	8	90,973	25	-71,924	72	-19,049	55
Corn	1,246,983	8	46,403	28	524	76	-46,927	46
Coffee	180,118	3	8,495	36	-8,052	68	-443	7
Sugar	863,843	40	199,368	61	-229,713	39	30,345	42
Wheat	297,933	7	-45,464	34	51,053	70	-5,589	54

Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Commodity Index and Heating Oil

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (83.9 percent) and Heating Oil (78.4 percent) lead the energy near the top of their respective ranges.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (0.7 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a Bearish-Extreme level (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (34.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Natural Gas (32.6 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (35.0 percent)
Gasoline (29.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (32.5 percent)
Heating Oil (78.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (71.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (83.9 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (85.2 percent)

Strength Trends led by Heating Oil

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (35.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week.

Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.3 percent), WTI Crude Oil (-12.6 percent) and Gasoline (-2.1 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-12.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-12.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (15.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-28.6 percent)
Natural Gas (5.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (12.4 percent)
Gasoline (-2.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (11.6 percent)
Heating Oil (35.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (27.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-13.9 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 141,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,041 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 138,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	40.6	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	50.0	3.2
– Net Position:	141,429	-170,148	28,719
– Gross Longs:	316,998	737,228	87,049
– Gross Shorts:	175,569	907,376	58,330
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.7	99.2	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	11.0	9.0

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -39,873 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,049 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	50.0	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	20.0	5.2
– Net Position:	-39,873	38,114	1,759
– Gross Longs:	14,882	63,542	8,338
– Gross Shorts:	54,755	25,428	6,579
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.0	70.0	33.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.8	-14.6	-11.3

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -98,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -92,800 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	39.6	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	34.1	3.1
– Net Position:	-98,775	68,313	30,462
– Gross Longs:	254,883	491,198	69,432
– Gross Shorts:	353,658	422,885	38,970
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	66.7	52.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-5.1	-2.3

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,680 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	45.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	62.7	4.6
– Net Position:	46,014	-54,480	8,466
– Gross Longs:	86,285	146,031	23,246
– Gross Shorts:	40,271	200,511	14,780
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.7	67.8	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	-3.1	22.3

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,699 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,100 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	44.4	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	58.0	9.7
– Net Position:	27,699	-41,810	14,111
– Gross Longs:	54,613	135,611	43,667
– Gross Shorts:	26,914	177,421	29,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.4	39.9	47.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.1	-40.0	22.5

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,746 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,396 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	86.8	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	76.8	0.2
– Net Position:	-5,746	5,553	193
– Gross Longs:	6,514	48,124	294
– Gross Shorts:	12,260	42,571	101
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.9	16.4	55.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	15.3	0.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

08 Jul

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Monday July 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was VIX (9,797 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (5,840 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (4,241 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (1,011 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (61 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were with the Nasdaq-Mini (-11,784 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (-3,810 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,211,004	22	-207,239	34	205,791	68	1,448	45
Nikkei 225	16,359	17	-6,185	29	4,671	64	1,514	47
Nasdaq-Mini	248,698	29	5,458	80	-3,883	20	-1,575	50
DowJones-Mini	95,161	55	-13,082	37	14,236	63	-1,154	38
VIX	406,805	76	-54,924	79	58,022	17	-3,098	80
Nikkei 225 Yen	57,318	49	10,965	68	15,896	54	-26,861	20

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (80 percent) and the VIX (79 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 Yen (68 percent) and DowJones-Mini (37 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nikkei 225 (29 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being the MSCI EAFE-Mini (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (79.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (72.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (33.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (33.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (36.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (20.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (80.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (87.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (31.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (33.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (28.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (28.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (29.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (24.7 percent)

S&P500-Mini & DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (29 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The DowJones-Mini (27 percent), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (11 percent) and the VIX (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Russell-Mini (-11 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nasdaq-Mini (-5 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (7.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (-7.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (29.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (26.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (27.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (7.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-5.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-1.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-11.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (0.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-4.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-11.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (10.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (1.0 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -54,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	50.2	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.7	35.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-54,924	58,022	-3,098
– Gross Longs:	94,274	204,071	26,095
– Gross Shorts:	149,198	146,049	29,193
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.4	17.5	80.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.1	-7.3	2.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -207,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -208,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	76.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	67.1	11.1
– Net Position:	-207,239	205,791	1,448
– Gross Longs:	223,358	1,688,344	245,999
– Gross Shorts:	430,597	1,482,553	244,551
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.8	68.3	44.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.4	-29.8	6.8

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -13,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	60.3	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.2	45.4	14.7
– Net Position:	-13,082	14,236	-1,154
– Gross Longs:	24,233	57,403	12,794
– Gross Shorts:	37,315	43,167	13,948
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.9	62.7	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.3	-23.8	10.3

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 5,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,242 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	52.8	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	54.3	16.7
– Net Position:	5,458	-3,883	-1,575
– Gross Longs:	70,707	131,223	40,005
– Gross Shorts:	65,249	135,106	41,580
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.3	20.2	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	1.2	13.6

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -67,510 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,700 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	83.5	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	71.1	4.0
– Net Position:	-67,510	63,856	3,654
– Gross Longs:	52,926	429,656	24,280
– Gross Shorts:	120,436	365,800	20,626
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.5	66.4	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	4.7	31.4

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 61 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	63.6	27.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.7	35.1	18.2
– Net Position:	-6,185	4,671	1,514
– Gross Longs:	1,460	10,407	4,492
– Gross Shorts:	7,645	5,736	2,978
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.7	64.3	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	-1.4	11.4

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,743 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,241 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	90.7	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	88.2	1.6
– Net Position:	-11,743	9,769	1,974
– Gross Longs:	25,587	356,504	8,292
– Gross Shorts:	37,330	346,735	6,318
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	70.8	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-7.0	-14.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

08 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (7,992 contracts) with Lean Hogs (4,006 contracts), Live Cattle (2,354 contracts), Wheat (1,713 contracts) and Cocoa (1,032 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-67,035 contracts) with Sugar (-20,806 contracts), Coffee (-18,522 contracts), Soybeans (-10,876 contracts), Cotton (-8,336 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-3,275 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,816,043	37	141,429	1	-170,148	99	28,719	37
Gold	448,063	12	163,097	49	-184,717	53	21,620	34
Silver	114,421	0	17,990	44	-29,569	58	11,579	31
Copper	204,399	46	1,888	32	-4,003	68	2,115	32
Palladium	14,781	100	-7,890	0	8,358	100	-468	14
Platinum	69,383	70	8,067	34	-13,570	65	5,503	42
Natural Gas	1,241,419	57	-98,775	33	68,313	67	30,462	52
Brent	127,019	1	-39,873	34	38,114	70	1,759	33
Heating Oil	305,681	38	27,699	78	-41,810	40	14,111	47
Soybeans	610,352	8	90,973	25	-71,924	72	-19,049	55
Corn	1,246,983	8	46,403	28	524	76	-46,927	46
Coffee	180,118	3	8,495	36	-8,052	68	-443	7
Sugar	863,843	40	199,368	61	-229,713	39	30,345	42
Wheat	297,933	7	-45,464	34	51,053	70	-5,589	54

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (94 percent) and Live Cattle (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week and are in Bullish-Extreme levels. Sugar (61 percent), Soybean Meal (55 percent) and Soybean Oil (42 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (7 percent) and Lean Hogs (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (28.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (37.8 percent)
Sugar (61.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (68.7 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (24.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (29.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (41.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (37.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (54.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (56.7 percent)
Live Cattle (92.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (90.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (19.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (16.1 percent)
Cotton (7.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.7 percent)
Cocoa (94.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (93.3 percent)
Wheat (34.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (33.3 percent)

Soybean Oil & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (40 percent) and Wheat (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (24 percent), Lean Hogs (17 percent) and Corn (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (-23 percent), Soybean Meal (-8 percent) and Cotton (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (15.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (23.2 percent)
Sugar (-26.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-17.9 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (24.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (39.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-7.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-7.3 percent)
Live Cattle (4.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (1.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (17.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (10.0 percent)
Cotton (-2.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (4.1 percent)
Cocoa (7.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (7.9 percent)
Wheat (29.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (24.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -67,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,438 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	49.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	48.9	13.6
– Net Position:	46,403	524	-46,927
– Gross Longs:	270,772	610,770	122,354
– Gross Shorts:	224,369	610,246	169,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.1	76.2	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-17.4	9.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 199,368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 220,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	43.3	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	69.9	5.1
– Net Position:	199,368	-229,713	30,345
– Gross Longs:	280,634	374,262	74,497
– Gross Shorts:	81,266	603,975	44,152
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.4	39.5	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.4	28.5	-25.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	47.0	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	51.4	3.9
– Net Position:	8,495	-8,052	-443
– Gross Longs:	42,190	84,606	6,662
– Gross Shorts:	33,695	92,658	7,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	67.9	7.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	24.0	-19.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 90,973 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,876 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,849 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	50.2	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	62.0	10.2
– Net Position:	90,973	-71,924	-19,049
– Gross Longs:	170,206	306,598	43,239
– Gross Shorts:	79,233	378,522	62,288
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.9	72.0	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.3	-24.1	17.8

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 40,809 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,992 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,817 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	56.9	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	66.8	5.1
– Net Position:	40,809	-48,028	7,219
– Gross Longs:	85,067	274,385	32,017
– Gross Shorts:	44,258	322,413	24,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	57.7	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.8	-39.8	30.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 95,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	37.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.6	60.6	6.3
– Net Position:	95,998	-109,012	13,014
– Gross Longs:	118,320	182,431	43,129
– Gross Shorts:	22,322	291,443	30,115
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	48.9	14.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	6.1	14.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 105,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,354 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,089 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.4	29.0	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	55.6	11.9
– Net Position:	105,443	-92,019	-13,424
– Gross Longs:	153,517	100,089	27,594
– Gross Shorts:	48,074	192,108	41,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.7	10.3	14.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-2.6	-9.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -12,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,006 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	39.4	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	32.0	10.4
– Net Position:	-12,574	14,847	-2,273
– Gross Longs:	58,151	78,658	18,525
– Gross Shorts:	70,725	63,811	20,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.3	83.6	73.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.5	-13.9	-25.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,678 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	50.9	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	49.5	7.0
– Net Position:	-1,678	2,320	-642
– Gross Longs:	53,597	88,184	11,530
– Gross Shorts:	55,275	85,864	12,172
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.5	91.9	12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	2.8	-5.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 72,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,552 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	26.1	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	48.0	3.2
– Net Position:	72,584	-75,594	3,010
– Gross Longs:	151,319	90,381	14,031
– Gross Shorts:	78,735	165,975	11,021
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.4	7.0	26.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.6	-5.1	-23.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -45,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,177 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	41.4	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	24.3	11.1
– Net Position:	-45,464	51,053	-5,589
– Gross Longs:	83,554	123,400	27,557
– Gross Shorts:	129,018	72,347	33,146
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.5	69.7	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.0	-23.6	-38.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

07 Jul

Gold Struggles to Gain Momentum: Challenges Persist in Precious Metals Sector

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The precious metals sector continues to face challenges, as gold has experienced a meager 5.1% increase from January to June 2023. This growth pales in comparison to the indicators seen in the US stock markets. Currently, the price of one troy ounce of gold stands at $1917 as we enter the second half of the year.

One of the key factors weighing on XAUUSD is the upward trend in interest rates, particularly in the US. This trend leads to higher yields in US government bonds and a stronger USD exchange rate. Historically, gold prices have exhibited an inverse correlation with these indicators.

Technical Analysis of XAU/USD:

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the price has once again rebounded from the moving averages, indicating the development of a bearish trend since May 22, 2023. This price behavior reinforces the strength of the current trend and the ongoing pressure from sellers. The closest support area lies at the level of 1895, and a breakout below this level would pave the way for a decline towards 1860. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD, as its signal line has moved out of the histogram area, signaling a decline and the continuation of the bearish trend. It is worth noting the formation of a bullish divergence signal on the MACD indicator on June 30, 2023, when the quotes reached 1935, and the signal was successfully executed.

On the H1 XAU/USD chart, the quotes have broken out of the boundaries of the bullish correction channel. The price is currently below the 200-day moving average, indicating increasing pressure from sellers and a lack of upward movement in the market. There is still potential for a minor bullish correction, with a possible test of the 1915 level before a decline towards 1895 is expected. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD, as histogram bars have dropped below the July 5, 2023 minimum, nullifying the attempt to form a bullish divergence. A favorable scenario for sellers would be a breakout of the resistance area with the price consolidating above the 1920 level.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

07 Jul

Murrey Math Lines 07.07.2023 (Brent, S&P 500)

By RoboForex.com

Brent

Brent quotes have broken the 200-day Moving Average on H4 and are now above it, indicating a probable development of an uptrend. The RSI has rebounded from the support line. In this situation, further growth to the resistance level of 6/8 (78.12) is to be expected. The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakout of 4/8 (75.00). In this case, the quotes could drop to the support of 3/8 (73.44).

On M15, the upper line of the VoltyChannel is broken, which increases the probability of a rise to 6/8 (78.12) on H4.

S&P 500

S&P 500 quotes remain in the overbought area on H4. The RSI is testing the resistance line. In this situation, a test of 8/8 (4375.0) is expected, followed by a breakout and a drop to the support at 7/8 (4296.9). The scenario can be cancelled by a rise above the resistance level of +1/8 (4453.1). In this case, the quotes could continue growing and reach +2/8 (4531.2).

On M15, the lower line of the VoltyChannel is broken, which increases the probability of a price decline.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Energy Financial News

07 Jul

The strong US labor market increased fears of further interest rate hikes by the Fed

By JustMarkets

Stronger-than-expected employment data from ADP reaffirmed fears of further interest rate hikes by Federal Reserve policymakers. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.07%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.79%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.82% on Thursday.

US employers announced 40,709 layoffs in June, down 49% from the 80,089 layoffs announced in May. Private sector jobs rose to 497,000 in June, much higher than the gain of 267,000 in May and much better than the estimated 220,000. At this point, the labor market is showing no signs of easing, giving the US Fed room to tighten further. Today in the US, the Nonfarm report will be released. Economists forecast that the US economy will add 200,000 jobs in June. The unemployment rate is expected to be 3.6% (now 3.7%), and average hourly earnings will be 0.3%.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said yesterday that further interest rate hikes would likely be needed to stimulate meaningful disinflation and return the rate of price growth to the Central Bank’s target level. She added that forecasts from Fed officials showed two more interest rate hikes this year.

Stock markets in Europe were down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 2.57%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 3.13%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) was down by 2.21%, Britain’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 2.17%.

Head of the German National Bank Nagel said yesterday that, at present, the ECB does not see a threat of excessive policy tightening but does not know yet where interest rates will peak. Nagel also added that rates will remain restrained for an extended period.

Traders are betting on a Bank of England interest rate hike to 6.5% by March 2023. Raising the cost of borrowing to that level would put mortgages further in the Bank of England’s pain zone, making credit less available to businesses and dealing a sharp blow to the economy. It will also exacerbate the difficulties facing the government of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in the run-up to next year’s elections.

Oil continues to fall in price amid fears of a rate hike. But amid signs of tightening supply and improving demand, oil still has a good chance of going higher. Data on Thursday showed US inventories declined more than expected, with a larger-than-expected drop in gasoline inventories pointing to improved demand for fuel during summer.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.86%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down by 0.82%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 2.44% for the day, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed negative by 1.25%.

In Japan, the wage hikes triggered by this spring’s labor negotiations have begun to take effect. Base wages rose by 1.8% in May compared to last year’s period, the most significant increase since February 1995. Wage growth is one of the key trends under scrutiny by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) as the Central Bank considers whether and when it should roll back its super-soft monetary stimulus. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has repeatedly stressed the need for an accommodative policy until wages rise enough to support sustained price growth of around 2%.

New Zealand’s Central Bank is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.50% next Wednesday and leave that level for the rest of the year, marking the end of its 20-month cycle of increases that have already driven the economy into recession. The country’s biggest banks – ANZ, ASB, Bank of New Zealand, Kiwibank, and Westpac – are not forecasting any rate changes next week.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,411.59 −35.23 (−0.79%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,922.26 −366.38 (−1.07%)

DAX (DE40) 15,528.54 −409.04 (−2.57%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,280.50 −161.60 (−2.17%)

USD Index 103.36 +0.32 (−0.04%)

Important events for today:

– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 19:45 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

07 Jul

Week Ahead: SPX500_m set for rollercoaster ride

By ForexTime

Even as markets turn cautious ahead of the highly anticipated US jobs report later today (Friday, July 7), investors are bracing for more action in the week ahead thanks to another round of risk events.

It’s all about the incoming US inflation data, speeches from numerous Fed officials as well as earnings announcements by US banks which could inject fresh volatility into the S&P 500 over the coming week.

Monday, July 10

CNH: China CPI, PPI
GBP: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speech
USD: Fed speak – San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

Tuesday, July 11

AUD: Australia consumer confidence
EUR: Germany CPI & ZEW survey expectations
GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment report
USD: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speech

Wednesday, July 12

CAD: Canada rate decision
NZD: New Zealand rate decision
JPY: Japan PPI
USD: US June CPI report, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Thursday, July 13

CNH: China trade
EUR: Eurozone industrial production
GBP: UK industrial production
USD: US initial jobless claims, PPI

Friday, July 14

JPY: Japan industrial production
USD: University of Michigan consumer sentiment
SPX500_m: Bank earnings – Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Citigroup

The June US Consumer price index (CPI) report published on Wednesday, July 12 will be one week after hawkish Fed minutes reinforced expectations around US rates staying higher for longer.

Given how the Fed remains data dependent, the strong ADP jobs report, pending NFP release this afternoon, and incoming US inflation data are likely to further influence Fed hike expectations.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (June 2023 vs. June 2022) to cool 3.1% from 4.0% in the prior month.
Core CPI year-on-year to cool 5.0% from 5.3% seen in May.
CPI month-on-month (June 2023 vs May 2023) to rise 0.3% from 0.1% in the prior month.
Core CPI month-on-month to cool 0.3% from 0.4% seen in May.

Over the past few months, there has been evidence of inflationary pressures cooling in the world’s largest economy, but core inflation has remained sticky. Should June’s CPI report slow further, this could fuel hopes around the Fed pausing rate hikes beyond July’s policy meeting.

How might the US CPI data influence the SPX500_m?

US equity bulls have warmly welcomed signs of cooling inflationary pressures as this supports the argument over the Fed pausing and eventually cutting interest rates down the road. Given how the S&P 500 Index has a handful of tech stocks that remain sensitive to Fed hike expectations, the CPI data could trigger volatility. In a nutshell, tech stocks dislike higher interest rates because their value is based on earnings projected in the future.

The SPX500_m might find itself under renewed selling pressure if the inflation numbers exceed market expectations.
Should the inflation numbers print below market forecasts, this could push the SPX500_m higher as expectations swell over the Fed nearing the end of its hiking cycle.

Let’s talk about US earnings season.

It’s that time of the year again!

Second quarter earnings season kicks off on Friday 14th July led by banking giants JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup. The bank earnings will be closely scrutinized for fresh insight into the US economy. It is worth keeping in mind that back in June, these major banks all passed the Fed’s stress test – lifting optimism ahead of earnings. Higher interest rates are expected to support bank earnings in the second quarter of 2023 as the Fed waged war against inflation.

Ultimately, a positive set of bank earnings may boost appetite for risk – injecting equity bulls with renewed confidence.

How might bank earnings impact the SPX500_m?

Given how financial stocks accounts for roughly 12.5% of the S&P 500, the market reaction to the earnings of these big banks on Friday could influence the index.

The SPX500_m could push higher if the bank earnings exceed market expectations.
If the earnings disappoint, the SPX500_m may trade lower.

Technical Outlook: Bulls vs Bears

The SPX500_m could be thrown on a roller-coaster ride next week if bulls and bears wrestle for control on the daily charts.

Even though prices are respecting a bullish channel on the D1 timeframe, bears are clearly in the vicinity and could ramp up their pressure if the index sinks back below 4332. Alternatively, bulls need to push prices beyond the 4463 resistance level to regain control of the steering wheel.

A solid breakout above 4463 could encourage an incline towards 4500 and 4580, respectively.
Should prices break down below 4332, this could encourage a decline to 4300, 4260, and 4200, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

06 Jul

Insights into This “Ultimate Harbinger” of the Bear Market

Enthusiasm for U.S. IPOs seems to be dramatically decreasing

By Elliott Wave International

Back in early 2021, many investors were chomping at the bits to invest in entities about which they knew next to nothing.

These entities are known as Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), which may be described as shell companies which raise money through an initial public offering to acquire another company. Investors’ enthusiasm towards them has waned, but they are still around.

The amazing thing is that people who invest in SPACs don’t know the identity of the company to be acquired. Yet, they eagerly invest anyway.

It’s a reminder of Charles Mackay’s book, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, in which he described the extreme bullish sentiment way back in 1720:

“[A]n undertaking of great advantage came to market, but nobody is to know what it is.”

In March 2021, when several athlete- and celebrity-sponsored SPACs hit the market, the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which covers major U.S. financial markets, called it:

The ultimate harbinger of the next bear market.

Yes, the major stock indexes held up for another nine months or so — yet the IPO market had already started to show weakness.

Today, that weakness has morphed into an outright bear market. The June 2023 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast provides a review with this chart and commentary:

The chart shows the Renaissance IPO Index, which records the aftermarket performance of U.S. IPOs. The index peaked on February 16, 2021 and declined 69%. The total number of IPOs peaked a month later at 135, also an all-time high. For 2022 and the first four months of 2023, the average monthly total is only 15 U.S. IPOs.

As Barron’s stated back in March:

The Tech IPO Well Has Run Dry. It’s Likely to Stay That Way.

The diminishing number of IPOs is by no means the only warning sign for stock investors.

Elliott Wave International’s Financial Forecast Service discusses an array of indicators which may be of interest to you, as well as the message of the Elliott wave model.

An important point about the Elliott wave model is that it helps investors to identify turning points in the trends of financial markets.

Indeed, here’s a quote from Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior:

When after a while the apparent jumble gels into a clear picture, the probability that a turning point is at hand can suddenly and excitingly rise to nearly 100%. It is a thrilling experience to pinpoint a turn, and the Wave Principle is the only approach that can occasionally provide the opportunity to do so.

Here’s the good news: You can access the entire online version of the book for free once you become a member of Club EWI, the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community.

Club EWI is free to join without any obligations and members enjoy free access to Elliott wave resources on financial markets and investing, including exclusive articles and interviews with Elliott Wave International’s analysts.

Click on the link to get started right away: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — get free and instant access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Insights into This “Ultimate Harbinger” of the Bear Market. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Stock Market News

06 Jul

The trade war between China and the US is worsening again. FOMC minutes point to further rate hikes

By JustMarkets

The US indices closed lower on Wednesday as minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting showed appetite for policy tightening and interest rate hikes. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.38%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.20%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.12% on Wednesday.

Highlights of the June FOMC minutes:

Nearly all participants said that inflation risks are prevalent at the moment and remain key to the outlook for the direction of monetary policy;
All Fed officials agreed that continued restrictive monetary policy would be appropriate;
The Fed expects further rate hikes but at a slower pace;
Fed policymakers believe a shallow recession at the end of the year is likely;
Some representatives favored raising rates rather than pausing at the June meeting, noting a “very tight” labor market that threatens to raise wages and inflation.

According to the FedWatch Tool, nearly 90% of traders expect the Fed to resume raising rates in July.

Stock markets in Europe were down yesterday. German DAX (DE30) was 0.63% lower, French CAC 40 (FR 40) decreased by 0.80%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 1.06%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) was 1.03% lower.

In the Eurozone, consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months declined further, while inflation expectations for the three years ahead remained stable. Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months have become less negative. Consumers expect lower growth in their home prices over the next 12 months.

Gold prices ended lower Wednesday as minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed that some central bank officials pushed for an interest rate hike in June. Gold has an inverse correlation to the dollar index and to government bond yields, so a policy tightening is a negative for the precious metals.

The OPEC+ meeting proceeds without surprises. OPEC energy and oil ministers reviewed current oil market conditions and agreed to continue current production quotas for a stable and balanced oil market. Additional crude oil inventories will be released today.

Natural gas continues to be cheaper. The hot weather in Texas and other southern US states has eased slightly, prompting market participants to push gas prices down further to $2.5. Additional natural gas inventories will be released tomorrow.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 0.25%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 1.08%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.57% on the day, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) close negative by 0.35%.

Janet Yellen is set to visit China in an effort to ease tensions between the two economic powers. Treasury Department officials say they don’t expect any diplomatic breakthroughs from Yellen’s trip. But the secretary of state hopes to forge closer ties with China’s new economic leaders to avoid a deeper deterioration in relations between the world’s two largest economies. This week, China announced new restrictions on exports of key minerals used in the manufacture of semiconductors and solar panels. This was China’s response to US export restrictions on China. The Biden administration has restricted the sale of advanced computer chips to China and is considering restricting China’s access to US cloud computing services.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,446.82 −8.77 (−0.20%)

Dow Jones (US30)34,288.64 −129.83 (−0.38%)

DAX (DE40) 15,937.58 −101.59 (−0.63%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,442.10 −77.62 (−1.03%)

USD Index 103.36 +0.32 (+0.31%)

Important events for today:

– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US JOLTS Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.