Energy

Archive for Energy – Page 20

COT Week 31 Charts: Energy Speculators push bets higher led by Brent Crude Oil & Gasoline

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets recorded lower contracts on the week.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Brent Crude Oil (8,700 contracts) with Gasoline (5,414 contracts), Heating Oil (3,384 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (3,040 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets with declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-6,683 contracts) and WTI Crude Oil with a week change of -5,508 contracts for the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-02-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,606,910	3	253,752	0	-272,866	100	19,114	42
Corn	1,347,894	6	201,355	56	-149,434	51	-51,921	13
Natural Gas	984,570	5	-124,973	41	87,596	58	37,377	69
Sugar	760,093	11	34,438	44	-35,229	61	791	9
Soybeans	572,925	0	92,527	42	-65,632	64	-26,895	26
Gold	459,649	2	124,326	12	-135,565	90	11,239	0
Wheat	316,244	12	-725	18	10,888	75	-10,163	58
Heating Oil	276,520	26	22,068	75	-35,389	34	13,321	44
Coffee	207,740	12	27,284	62	-27,968	44	684	6
Copper	184,441	16	-27,406	23	27,672	78	-266	24
Brent	171,751	17	-32,782	56	31,835	46	947	22
Silver	136,267	3	974	7	-9,064	93	8,090	8
Platinum	68,266	36	-2,541	5	-1,708	96	4,249	21
Palladium	6,945	3	-2,560	8	2,743	90	-183	33

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Heating Oil (74.9 percent) leads the energy markets currently and is up from 69.9 percent last week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (59.2 percent) comes in as the next highest energy market followed by Brent Crude Oil (56.2 percent). On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) remains at the bottom of its three-year range and is in a bearish extreme level. Gasoline (22.9 percent) comes in as the next lowest followed by Natural Gas (41.1 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (1.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (56.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (41.6 percent)
Natural Gas (41.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (43.1 percent)
Gasoline (22.9 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (17.4 percent)
Heating Oil (74.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (69.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (59.2 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (47.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Gasoline (19.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Heating Oil (18.4 percent), Brent Crude Oil (8.8 percent) and the Natural Gas (1.8 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-17.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently followed by WTI Crude Oil at -10.7 percent.

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-10.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-13.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (8.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-8.6 percent)
Natural Gas (1.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (1.6 percent)
Gasoline (19.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (14.0 percent)
Heating Oil (18.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (15.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-17.5 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-28.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 253,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 259,260 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	38.4	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.7	55.4	3.4
– Net Position:	253,752	-272,866	19,114
– Gross Longs:	361,810	616,741	74,356
– Gross Shorts:	108,058	889,607	55,242
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	15.2	-21.6

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -32,782 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,482 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	50.3	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.4	31.8	3.4
– Net Position:	-32,782	31,835	947
– Gross Longs:	28,074	86,415	6,872
– Gross Shorts:	60,856	54,580	5,925
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.2	46.2	22.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.8	-7.0	-13.7

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -124,973 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -118,290 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	40.1	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	31.2	3.0
– Net Position:	-124,973	87,596	37,377
– Gross Longs:	174,529	394,371	66,623
– Gross Shorts:	299,502	306,775	29,246
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.1	58.5	68.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	0.5	-17.7

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 50,818 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,404 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	46.8	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	69.4	4.9
– Net Position:	50,818	-57,295	6,477
– Gross Longs:	78,784	118,686	19,000
– Gross Shorts:	27,966	175,981	12,523
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.9	76.4	55.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.5	-14.6	-27.9

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 22,068 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	52.7	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	65.5	9.9
– Net Position:	22,068	-35,389	13,321
– Gross Longs:	46,505	145,844	40,829
– Gross Shorts:	24,437	181,233	27,508
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.9	33.6	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.4	-7.7	-18.4

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -12,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,040 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,663 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	74.4	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	55.9	0.2
– Net Position:	-12,623	12,388	235
– Gross Longs:	15,791	49,891	373
– Gross Shorts:	28,414	37,503	138
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	40.9	18.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	17.8	-2.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

01 Aug

Crude Oil Prices Continue to Be Under Pressure

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The commodity sector remains rather tense on Monday; Brent is trading at $102.75.

Global geopolitics is what investors are focused on right now. Any complications in this area muddy the water one way or another, and it’s bad news. Last weekend, the Kosovo situation escalated – a gas pipeline “Balkan Stream” is going through Serbia, which doesn’t recognise the independence of Kosovo. The pipeline delivers natural gas from “TurkStream” to Hungary.

Later this week, OPEC and OPECF+ will have meetings. The OPEC+ agreement is ending in August and the organisations are set to discuss options to increase oil production. First of all, it depends on Saudi Arabia, a country that still has the potential for oil extraction expansion. However, Saudis don’t seem to be interested in it.

The latest report from Baker Hughes showed that over the past week, the Oil Rig Count in the US gained 6 units, up to 605. In Canada, the indicator increased by 13 units, up to 137.

On the H4 chart, Brent is forming the third ascending wave with the target at 111.55 and may later correct down to 106.16. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards with the short-term target at 118.80. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 0 inside the histogram area. Both the line and the price chart may yet continue to move upwards.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after finishing the descending correctional structure at 106.16, Brent is consolidating above this level. Possibly, the asset may break the range to the upside and start another growth with the target at 111.55, or even extends this structure up to 118.70. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: after breaking 20, its signal line is heading towards 50. Later, the line may break the latter level and continue growing to reach 80.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News

01 Aug

Chart Spotlight: Tellurian Inc. (TELL)

By Ino.com

Natural gas prices are exploding.

For one, Russia said it would cut natural gas shipments to Europe.

In fact, as noted by Barron’s, “Russian company Gazprom said on Monday that it will cut natural gas shipments from the key Nord Stream pipeline to Germany starting this week. The pipeline’s exports will be cut to 20% of capacity, down from 40%, because of a sanctions-related issue with turbines serving the pipeline.”

Two, there are drought conditions in the U.S., and a heat wave forcing millions to turn up their air conditioners to full blast.

Three, according to EQT CEO Toby Rice, as quoted by Barron’s, “In the United States, we’ve got the natural gas here, we’ll be fine. But you think about our allies in Europe, and the tremendous power and influence that Russia has on these countries. Clearly, we need to take away the gun, and provide the energy to our allies around the world.”

All could create a big opportunity for natural gas stocks, like Tellurian (TELL).

Tellurian – a $2.1 billion company – is “building a low-cost, global natural gas business, profitably delivering natural gas to customers worldwide.”

Better, the company could benefit from a substantial shortage of natural gas.

In fact, according to its latest investor deck, geopolitics and energy security providing a step change in global LNG demand. Tellurian notes there’s (1) underinvestment in energy and post-CV structural growth have collided with a geopolitical crisis; (2) A need to replace 20 Bcf/d of Russian gas to Europe, equivalent to ~35% of the world’s LNG market; (3) Natural gas shortage expected to lead to catastrophic consequences.

Technically, according to MarketClub, shares of TELL are slightly overbought. The MarketClub Smart Scan also gives the stock a score of +60, which tells us at the moment, the stock is struggling to move in a solid trend.

However, with natural gas prices showing no signs of cooling off, I’d like to see the stock run from a current price of $3.68 to $5, near-term.

The MarketClub Trade Triangles are also mostly green.

While it’s telling us that the longer-term trend has been down over the last month, the intermediate trend has been strong since mid-July. In addition, the short-term trend, according to Market Club, has been up since mid-July as well.

Source: MarketClub

Ian Cooper
INO.com Contributor

The above analysis of Tellurian Inc. (TELL) was provided by financial writer Ian Cooper. Ian Cooper is not a Registered Investment Advisor or Financial Planner. This writing is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Ian Cooper expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: Chart Spotlight: Tellurian Inc. (TELL)

Energy Financial News

30 Jul

COT Week 30 Charts: Energy Speculator bets rise higher led by Heating Oil & Gasoline

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT energy market speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Heating Oil (9,441 contracts) with Gasoline (5,588 contracts), Natural Gas (2,033 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-180 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-11,831 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-1,535 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-26-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,597,451	2	259,260	0	-283,489	100	24,229	49
Corn	1,320,768	2	186,528	54	-138,899	52	-47,629	16
Natural Gas	976,126	4	-118,290	43	83,028	57	35,262	64
Sugar	722,469	4	64,103	50	-65,756	56	1,653	10
Soybeans	583,850	0	85,241	40	-57,573	66	-27,668	24
Gold	487,515	10	92,690	0	-108,422	100	15,732	0
Wheat	301,674	6	25	19	8,068	71	-8,093	68
Heating Oil	269,127	23	18,684	70	-33,531	36	14,847	50
Coffee	199,536	5	28,641	64	-28,867	43	226	2
Copper	183,958	15	-26,562	23	26,839	78	-277	24
Brent	177,837	22	-41,482	42	40,557	61	925	22
Silver	147,784	14	-4,500	0	-2,653	100	7,153	4
Platinum	73,423	45	-4,468	2	-171	98	4,639	27
Palladium	7,124	4	-3,408	4	3,894	97	-486	16

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Heating Oil (69.9 percent) leads the energy markets this week and is up from 56.0 percent last week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (47.6 percent) comes in as the next highest energy market in strength scores but has been down-trending in past weeks followed by Natural Gas (43.1 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (41.6 percent). On the downside, the WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is at the bottom of its three-year range. Gasoline (17.4 percent) is the next lowest and joins the WTI Crude in a bearish extreme level (under 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (3.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (41.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (41.9 percent)
Natural Gas (43.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (42.5 percent)
Gasoline (17.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (11.8 percent)
Heating Oil (69.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (56.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (47.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (53.4 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (15.0 percent) has the highest six-week trend for energy this week. Gasoline (14.0 percent) and Natural Gas (1.6 percent) fill out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-28.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were WTI Crude Oil (-13.2 percent) followed by Brent Crude Oil (-8.6 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-13.2 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-17.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-8.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-8.7 percent)
Natural Gas (1.6 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-1.8 percent)
Gasoline (14.0 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (9.4 percent)
Heating Oil (15.0 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (6.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-28.1 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-22.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 259,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,831 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 271,091 net contracts.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	37.2	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.8	55.0	3.5
– Net Position:	259,260	-283,489	24,229
– Gross Longs:	368,453	595,032	79,895
– Gross Shorts:	109,193	878,521	55,666
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	49.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	17.9	-20.4

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -41,482 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,302 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.9	53.2	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	30.4	3.4
– Net Position:	-41,482	40,557	925
– Gross Longs:	26,547	94,590	7,001
– Gross Shorts:	68,029	54,033	6,076
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.6	60.7	21.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	9.9	-11.7

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -118,290 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -120,323 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	40.1	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	31.6	3.1
– Net Position:	-118,290	83,028	35,262
– Gross Longs:	183,441	391,771	65,474
– Gross Shorts:	301,731	308,743	30,212
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.1	57.0	63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	2.8	-32.8

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,816 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	48.8	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	68.5	5.8
– Net Position:	45,404	-50,319	4,915
– Gross Longs:	74,431	124,784	19,651
– Gross Shorts:	29,027	175,103	14,736
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	83.1	45.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-6.4	-48.6

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 18,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,441 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,243 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	52.0	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	64.5	9.8
– Net Position:	18,684	-33,531	14,847
– Gross Longs:	43,158	139,948	41,336
– Gross Shorts:	24,474	173,479	26,489
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.9	35.6	49.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.0	-5.2	-18.6

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -15,663 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	76.6	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	54.5	0.2
– Net Position:	-15,663	15,400	263
– Gross Longs:	14,435	53,388	374
– Gross Shorts:	30,098	37,988	111
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	3.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.6	52.5	19.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.1	29.4	-11.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News investing

23 Jul

COT Week 29 Charts: Energy Speculator bets go higher led by Natural Gas & Gasoline

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT energy market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Natural Gas (11,280 contracts) with Gasoline (7,074 contracts), WTI Crude Oil (2,763 contracts) and Heating Oil (2,515 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-3,413 contracts) with Brent Crude Oil (-2,914 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-19-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,577,616	0	271,091	1	-293,689	100	22,598	47
Corn	1,308,458	0	209,940	57	-165,611	48	-44,329	18
Natural Gas	953,325	0	-120,323	42	86,699	58	33,624	60
Sugar	703,614	0	127,162	63	-141,842	41	14,680	26
Soybeans	602,987	0	102,593	45	-74,427	61	-28,166	23
Gold	524,786	21	94,955	0	-112,262	100	17,307	0
Wheat	292,700	2	6,522	28	3,173	64	-9,695	60
Heating Oil	267,576	22	9,243	56	-23,800	46	14,557	49
Coffee	196,041	3	27,979	63	-28,026	44	47	0
Brent	177,889	22	-41,302	42	40,843	61	459	15
Copper	174,592	8	-23,836	25	23,745	76	91	26
Silver	145,247	12	1,360	0	-8,213	100	6,853	2
Platinum	75,069	47	-4,282	2	-273	98	4,555	26
Palladium	6,915	3	-3,751	2	4,302	99	-551	12

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Heating Oil (56.0 percent) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (53.4 percent) lead the energy markets with both above the 50 percent level of the past three year ranges. On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (0.9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by Gasoline (11.8 percent) with both in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (41.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (46.8 percent)
Natural Gas (42.5 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (39.1 percent)
Gasoline (11.8 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (4.7 percent)
Heating Oil (56.0 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (52.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (53.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (66.5 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Gasoline (9.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Heating Oil (6.4 percent) is the only positive mover in the latest trends data. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-22.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were WTI Crude Oil (-17.8 percent) followed by Brent Crude Oil (-8.7 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-17.8 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-20.1 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-8.7 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (4.2 percent)
Natural Gas (-1.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-6.4 percent)
Gasoline (9.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-1.0 percent)
Heating Oil (6.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (9.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-22.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-0.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 271,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,763 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 268,328 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.7	36.8	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.6	55.4	3.2
– Net Position:	271,091	-293,689	22,598
– Gross Longs:	374,677	580,330	73,482
– Gross Shorts:	103,586	874,019	50,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	100.0	46.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.8	23.9	-25.6

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -41,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,914 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	52.5	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.8	29.6	3.6
– Net Position:	-41,302	40,843	459
– Gross Longs:	27,724	93,411	6,899
– Gross Shorts:	69,026	52,568	6,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.9	61.2	15.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	11.0	-19.4

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -120,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -131,603 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	42.0	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	32.9	3.1
– Net Position:	-120,323	86,699	33,624
– Gross Longs:	183,610	400,468	63,072
– Gross Shorts:	303,933	313,769	29,448
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	58.2	59.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	6.4	-33.7

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 39,816 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,074 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	51.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	68.6	5.2
– Net Position:	39,816	-45,501	5,685
– Gross Longs:	72,688	139,646	19,650
– Gross Shorts:	32,872	185,147	13,965
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.8	87.7	50.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.4	-3.5	-37.9

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 9,243 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	54.1	15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	62.9	10.3
– Net Position:	9,243	-23,800	14,557
– Gross Longs:	37,695	144,635	42,056
– Gross Shorts:	28,452	168,435	27,499
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	45.9	48.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.4	0.7	-17.3

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,413 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,715 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	76.9	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	56.3	0.2
– Net Position:	-14,128	13,905	223
– Gross Longs:	12,868	51,893	364
– Gross Shorts:	26,996	37,988	141
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.4	46.8	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.0	23.2	-11.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News

16 Jul

COT Week 28 Charts: Energy Speculator bets mixed led by Gasoline & Heating Oil

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets saw decreasing net positions for the week.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Gasoline (4,721 contracts) with Heating Oil (242 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (126 contracts) also showing very small positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-12,195 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-3,229 contracts) with Natural Gas (-1,084 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-12-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,612,803	0	268,328	0	-294,526	100	26,198	52
Corn	1,333,199	0	247,156	62	-196,533	44	-50,623	14
Natural Gas	969,204	0	-131,603	39	94,195	61	37,408	69
Sugar	701,144	0	105,869	58	-115,779	46	9,910	20
Soybeans	611,751	1	115,119	49	-87,284	57	-27,835	24
Gold	542,493	26	118,121	0	-137,788	100	19,667	0
Wheat	288,182	0	4,639	25	5,041	67	-9,680	60
Heating Oil	266,330	22	6,728	52	-22,853	47	16,125	54
Coffee	195,810	2	34,308	68	-35,166	37	858	0
Copper	172,037	6	-26,295	23	27,061	78	-766	21
Brent	171,950	17	-38,388	47	36,619	54	1,769	33
Silver	142,259	9	3,204	0	-9,612	100	6,408	0
Platinum	75,615	48	-5,911	0	1,235	100	4,676	27
Palladium	6,474	1	-2,802	7	3,252	93	-450	18

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (66.5 percent) and Heating Oil (52.3 percent) lead the energy markets this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has been the strongest strength score in the past few weeks but came down from a 78.8 percent score last week showing a weakening strength compared to the 3-year range. On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) and Gasoline (4.7 percent) come in as the lowest strength scores currently and are both in bearish extreme levels (near the bottom of their 3-year ranges).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (3.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (46.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (46.5 percent)
Natural Gas (39.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (39.4 percent)
Gasoline (4.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (0.0 percent)
Heating Oil (52.3 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (52.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (66.5 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (78.8 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (9.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Brent Crude Oil (4.2 percent) is the only positive mover in the latest trends data. WTI Crude Oil (-20.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Natural Gas (-6.4 percent) followed by Gasoline (-1.0 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-20.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-16.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (4.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (1.3 percent)
Natural Gas (-6.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-5.7 percent)
Gasoline (-1.0 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-4.4 percent)
Heating Oil (9.7 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (18.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-0.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (7.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 268,328 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 280,523 net contracts.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	36.6	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.6	54.9	3.5
– Net Position:	268,328	-294,526	26,198
– Gross Longs:	375,155	590,438	82,523
– Gross Shorts:	106,827	884,964	56,325
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	51.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.1	25.2	-20.6

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -38,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,514 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	52.2	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	30.9	3.1
– Net Position:	-38,388	36,619	1,769
– Gross Longs:	26,868	89,831	7,060
– Gross Shorts:	65,256	53,212	5,291
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.8	54.2	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-3.9	-2.2

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -131,603 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	41.2	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	31.4	2.9
– Net Position:	-131,603	94,195	37,408
– Gross Longs:	183,194	398,833	65,940
– Gross Shorts:	314,797	304,638	28,532
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.1	60.6	68.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	10.9	-31.3

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,021 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	55.1	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	69.2	5.1
– Net Position:	32,742	-38,954	6,212
– Gross Longs:	69,876	153,217	20,335
– Gross Shorts:	37,134	192,171	14,123
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.7	94.0	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	6.8	-40.8

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 6,728 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 242 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	52.7	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	61.3	10.1
– Net Position:	6,728	-22,853	16,125
– Gross Longs:	36,724	140,444	43,002
– Gross Shorts:	29,996	163,297	26,877
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.3	46.9	54.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-5.2	-6.0

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	72.9	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.5	57.1	0.2
– Net Position:	-10,715	10,480	235
– Gross Longs:	15,577	48,468	360
– Gross Shorts:	26,292	37,988	125
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.5	33.6	18.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	1.7	-12.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News

09 Jul

COT Week 27 Charts: Energy Speculator bets drop led by WTI Crude Oil & Gasoline

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Energy market speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

The only market to show speculator bet gains for energy markets was Brent Crude Oil with a gain of +4,163 contracts. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-19,169 contracts) and Gasoline (-4,078 contracts) with Natural Gas (-1,100 contracts), Heating Oil (-1,022 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-137 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish and below 20 percent is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (78.8 percent) is above its midpoint for the past 3 years and leads the way for the energy markets in speculator sentiment. Brent oil (46.5 percent) and Heating oil (52 percent) are also positive while WTI Crude (0 percent) and Gasoline (0 percent) are at the bottom of their 3-year ranges and in bearish extreme levels.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Heating oil (18.7 percent) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (7.8 percent) lead the rising scores over the past six weeks. WTI Crude oil, meanwhile, has been on the largest downtrend with a -17.6 percent score for the past six weeks, followed by Natural Gas (-5.7 percent) and Gasoline (-4.4 percent).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-05-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,637,862	0	280,523	0	-304,217	100	23,694	48
Corn	1,331,035	0	260,705	63	-207,441	42	-53,264	12
Natural Gas	977,507	0	-130,519	39	91,950	60	38,569	71
Sugar	713,245	0	83,512	54	-85,255	52	1,743	10
Soybeans	638,675	7	125,491	52	-93,638	56	-31,853	17
Gold	498,210	13	145,660	0	-165,585	100	19,925	0
Wheat	288,754	0	8,384	30	623	61	-9,007	64
Heating Oil	264,269	21	6,486	52	-22,775	47	16,289	55
Coffee	193,731	1	46,787	79	-49,139	25	2,352	14
Copper	183,331	15	-31,796	19	31,340	81	456	28
Brent	166,711	13	-38,514	47	37,309	55	1,205	26
Silver	140,463	7	5,139	0	-11,622	100	6,483	0
Platinum	72,895	44	-2,734	0	-1,670	100	4,404	23
Palladium	7,373	5	-3,410	4	4,104	98	-694	4

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 280,523 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 299,692 net contracts.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	36.8	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.0	55.3	3.5
– Net Position:	280,523	-304,217	23,694
– Gross Longs:	394,943	601,996	81,558
– Gross Shorts:	114,420	906,213	57,864
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	48.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.6	23.1	-22.8

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -38,514 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	52.4	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.5	30.0	3.4
– Net Position:	-38,514	37,309	1,205
– Gross Longs:	25,605	87,320	6,881
– Gross Shorts:	64,119	50,011	5,676
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	55.3	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	-0.3	-8.1

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -130,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,419 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	40.6	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.6	31.2	2.8
– Net Position:	-130,519	91,950	38,569
– Gross Longs:	197,937	397,060	66,331
– Gross Shorts:	328,456	305,110	27,762
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	59.9	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	8.9	-21.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 28,021 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,099 net contracts.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	52.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	64.7	5.7
– Net Position:	28,021	-32,693	4,672
– Gross Longs:	72,955	142,761	20,221
– Gross Shorts:	44,934	175,454	15,549
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	10.5	-43.3

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	52.7	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	61.3	9.9
– Net Position:	6,486	-22,775	16,289
– Gross Longs:	39,513	139,296	42,410
– Gross Shorts:	33,027	162,071	26,121
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.0	47.0	54.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.7	-12.3	-3.9

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	66.8	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.4	56.1	0.2
– Net Position:	-7,486	7,242	244
– Gross Longs:	18,524	45,230	367
– Gross Shorts:	26,010	37,988	123
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.8	21.1	19.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.8	-6.8	-10.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News

06 Jul

Russia’s oil is in long-term decline – and the war has only added to the problem

By Carole Nakhle, University of Surrey

Immediately after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, world oil prices jumped above US$100 per barrel, hitting US$130 for Brent crude on March 8. The prevailing fear was that substantial Russian supplies would be lost to the world market either through western sanctions or a voluntary decision by Moscow in retaliation to western support for Ukraine. This was especially worrying when the world was already struggling to secure enough additional oil to meet rapidly growing demand as the COVID restrictions began to ease.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), for example, predicted that “from April, three million barrels per day of Russian oil output could be shut in” – that’s about a third of the total. It feared that this could produce “the biggest supply crisis in decades”.

World oil prices (US$)

Brent crude chart — Brent crude prices, which are the leading global benchmark for world oil.
Trading View

Yet such forecasts turned out to be much too pessimistic. After more than four months of war, Russian oil and gas production is at close to the same level as when the war started. So why is this, and what can we expect in future?

Russia the energy power

Russia is “incredibly unimportant in the global economy except for oil and gas”, as the Harvard economist and former Obama adviser Jason Furman once said. It is only the 11th largest economy overall, despite being the third largest oil producer after the US and Saudi Arabia and second largest oil exporter after Saudi. It also sits on the largest proven gas reserves in the world, is the second largest producer after the US and the largest exporter.

In particular, Russia is the largest energy supplier to the EU, accounting for 27% of oil imports and 41% of gas. Second-placed Norway accounts for 7% and 16% respectively.

These simple facts explain why Russia matters for oil and gas markets, and why it was not easy for the EU to ban its imports as soon as the war started. Several other countries did impose restrictions: Canada became the first country to ban Russian crude oil imports, and then the US followed suit, banning all Russian oil, liquefied natural gas and coal from April.
The UK announced that it would phase out Russian oil imports by the end of the year. Many private buyers, primarily based in the west, also stopped buying for fear of reputational damage and getting caught in the sanctions minefield.

Yet despite all these restrictions, oil prices fell from their March highs (even though the war seems to have placed a floor of US$100 per barrel). This is partly due to the gloomier global economic outlook caused by raging inflation and rising interest rates, which is likely to reduce demand for oil. At the same time, however, the countries that rushed to ban Russian oil are not among its biggest consumers, which are China, Germany and the Netherlands.

Asian buyers also welcomed the “opportunity” to buy Russian crude oil at discounted prices: the main product, known as Urals, used to sell at around US$1 per barrel below Brent, but the gap is currently over US$30.

The IEA duly scaled back its forecasts. In its April report it expected Russian oil supply that month “to fall by 1.5 mb/d [million barrels per day]”, adding that around 3 mb/d would be off the world market from May. But in its May report, the agency estimated that Russian oil production declined by nearly 1 mb/d in April and that “losses could expand to around 3 mb/d during the second half of the year”. According to Russian sources, the country’s oil output rose 5% to 10.7 mb/d in June compared to around 11 million in January/February.

What next

After months of negotiations, the EU announced on June 3 an import ban on all Russian seaborne crude oil and petroleum products – effective in six months for crude oil and eight months for petroleum. Both Germany and Poland have also committed to halting pipeline imports, so 90% of Russian oil exports to the EU or 2.5 mb/d are going to be lost.

Again, however, a significant proportion will be captured by other buyers. In May, for instance, China’s oil imports from Russia reached a record of 2 mb/d, and Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as China’s largest supplier. India has also boosted its purchases of Russian oil since the war started. China and India are the world’s two largest net oil importers, and China is the second largest oil consumer after the US.

In total, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) assumes that about 80% of the crude oil subject to the EU import ban will find alternative buyers, mainly in Asia. As long as sanctions are not imposed by all the major oil importers, Russian oil will continue to find buyers.

This explains the considerable variation in estimates of how much Russian oil will be lost to the world market, particularly in the short-term – from as little as 0.25 mb/d by Opec to 3 mb/d by Goldman Sachs.

In the longer term, however, assuming the western boycott is maintained and even tightened, the loss will become more notable. Even before the war, the Russian government’s own forecasts expected its oil and gas production to be undermined both by depleting reserves and the effects of the technological and economic sanctions imposed by the west after the 2014 Crimea invasion. Even its most optimistic scenario predicted a short-term modest increase in oil production and then plateauing from 2024 to 2035. In the more conservative scenario, oil production was expected to decline.

Since the war began, many western oil companies, which typically bring capital and technology, have exited Russia. In a country with complex reservoirs, ageing fields and a hostile climate, the lack of investment and access to technology will accelerate the long-term decline.

The global market will ultimately accommodate such an outcome, as other supplies become available and demand responds to prices, but Russia will have to live with a shrinking market share and diminished influence on global oil markets. This will make it much harder for Moscow to finance future wars. It also means that the Russians are going to have to diversify their economy at a time when a substantial slice of the world will no longer do business with them.

About the Author:

Carole Nakhle, Energy Economist, University of Surrey

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Financial News

02 Jul

COT Week 26 Charts: Energy Speculator bets mostly higher led by WTI Crude Oil & Natural Gas

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Energy market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (10,190 contracts) and Natural Gas (1,450 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (703 contracts) and Gasoline (692 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Brent Crude Oil (-4,667 contracts) with Heating Oil (-2,056 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish and below 20 percent is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (79 percent) and Heating Oil (54 percent) are above the midpoint for the past 3 years while all the other markets are below the 50 percent level. Gasoline and WTI Crude are in extreme bearish positions as each come in at 3 percent currently.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Heating Oil (16 percent) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (9 percent) are also the only markets that have rising trend scores currently. Brent Crude Oil (-13 percent) and WTI Crude (-9 percent) are leading the downside trends.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-28-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,651,566	0	299,692	3	-327,938	99	28,246	55
Corn	1,338,054	0	328,102	72	-274,110	33	-53,992	12
Natural Gas	987,740	0	-129,419	40	90,840	60	38,579	71
Sugar	734,324	0	122,709	62	-132,877	43	10,168	20
Soybeans	653,337	11	137,193	56	-106,705	52	-30,488	20
Gold	497,005	13	157,693	2	-182,007	98	24,314	16
Wheat	291,041	0	7,679	29	-1,871	57	-5,808	80
Heating Oil	269,168	23	7,508	53	-25,743	44	18,235	62
Coffee	194,896	2	45,200	78	-47,147	26	1,947	9
Copper	182,352	14	-30,696	20	31,197	81	-501	22
Brent	173,920	19	-42,677	40	41,434	62	1,243	26
Silver	135,775	3	10,891	0	-18,485	100	7,594	0
Platinum	68,232	36	-1,306	2	-3,381	100	4,687	27
Palladium	7,765	6	-3,825	1	4,441	100	-616	8

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 299,692 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 289,502 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	36.3	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.8	56.2	3.2
– Net Position:	299,692	-327,938	28,246
– Gross Longs:	396,046	599,957	80,880
– Gross Shorts:	96,354	927,895	52,634
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.4	98.6	54.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	12.6	-14.1

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,010 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	53.8	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.3	30.0	2.9
– Net Position:	-42,677	41,434	1,243
– Gross Longs:	25,712	93,538	6,241
– Gross Shorts:	68,389	52,104	4,998
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.6	62.2	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	15.5	-20.3

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -129,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	40.8	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.7	31.6	2.4
– Net Position:	-129,419	90,840	38,579
– Gross Longs:	203,204	402,705	62,574
– Gross Shorts:	332,623	311,865	23,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.7	59.5	71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	8.4	-28.5

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	53.7	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	68.4	4.4
– Net Position:	32,099	-42,454	10,355
– Gross Longs:	76,657	154,967	23,177
– Gross Shorts:	44,558	197,421	12,822
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.8	94.6	81.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	4.3	-17.4

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,056 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,564 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.5	52.6	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	62.1	8.2
– Net Position:	7,508	-25,743	18,235
– Gross Longs:	44,423	141,515	40,222
– Gross Shorts:	36,915	167,258	21,987
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	43.9	61.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-9.9	-5.4

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,052 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	68.6	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.8	57.9	0.2
– Net Position:	-7,349	7,041	308
– Gross Longs:	18,077	45,029	456
– Gross Shorts:	25,426	37,988	148
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.4	20.4	21.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.8	-7.5	-13.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News

27 Jun

Crude Oil Is Consolidating

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Monday morning, the Brent price is balancing at $113 per barrel The commodity marker remains uncertain – the supply isn’t expanding as quick as it is expected to, and the demand might drop as well.

China is cancelling lockdowns but it does not necessarily mean that the country will start increasing its oil import right away. There are doubts about the Chinese economy’s ability to quickly and steadily expand at a time when the entire world is fighting inflation and afraid of recession.

OPEC+ members are working according to their earlier approved plan to increase oil production. This factor might have calmed down financial markets but Libya remains a mess and the Iranian oil won’t come to the commodity market in a while. Taken together, all these factors create a rather controversial basis.

In the H4 chart, having completed the correctional wave at 107.30, Brent continues growing towards 113.30 and may later consolidate there. After that, the instrument may break the range to the upside and form one more ascending wave with the target at 117.60. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving near the lows outside the histogram area, which means that it may grow to reach 0 and the uptrend in the price chart may continue.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after finishing the ascending wave at 113.30 along with the correction down to 110.15, Brent has rebounded from the latter level. Possibly, the asset may break 113.30 and then continue growing towards 117.70. Later, the market may correct to return to 113.30 and then form one more ascending structure with the first target at 119.50. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: after rebounding from 50, its signal line is expected to continue moving towards 80.

Disclaimer

Energy Financial News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.