Archive for Economics & Fundamentals – Page 88

Week Ahead: Will Fed Decision Trigger NQ100_m Breakout?

By ForexTime 

  • Exceptional list of high-risk events next week
  • Our focus falls on Fed decision which could move NQ100_m
  • Fed expected to leave rates unchanged
  • Much focus will be on any clues offered on future rate moves
  • NQ100_m breakout on horizon with 15200 and 15630 key levels of interest

The exceptional list of high-risk events and top-tier economic reports could rock global financial markets in the week ahead!

All eyes will be on the central bank mashup including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England (BoE), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) among many others. Key economic data from the UK, Eurozone, and Japan to name a few will also be in focus:

Monday, September 18 

  • CAD: Canada housing starts

Tuesday, September 19

  • CAD: Canada CPI
  • AUD: RBA meeting minutes
  • EUR: Eurozone CPI
  • USD: US housing starts

Wednesday, September 20

  • CNH: China loan prime rates
  • EUR: Eurozone new car registrations
  • JPY: Japan trade
  • CAD: BoC meeting minutes
  • GBP: UK August CPI
  • USD: Fed rate decision

Thursday, September 21

  • CHF: SNB rate decision
  • EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
  • NZD: New Zealand GDP
  • GBP: BoE rate decision
  • USD: leading index, initial jobless claims

Friday, September 22

  • AUD: Judo Bank Australia PMI’s
  • JPY: BOJ rate decision, CPI, PMI’s
  • CAD: Canada retail sales
  • EUR: Eurozone S&P Global PMI’s, Germany PMI’s
  • GBP: UK S&P Global/CIPS PMI’s
  • USD: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

Given the jampacked economic schedule, it may be wise to fasten your seatbelts and get ready for a wild ride.

Our focus falls on the September FOMC meeting which could trigger a major move on the NQ100_m.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.5% at the September 19-20 meeting. However, much focus will be on what vital clues the central bank offers on future rate hikes. Investors will also be keeping a close eye on the economic projections, including the ones for interest rates known as the dot plot.

Ultimately, if Jerome Powell strikes a hawkish tone during his press conference and leaves the door open for further rates, this could boost bets around the Fed making a move before the end of 2023.

As of writing, traders have practically ruled out the possibility of a rate hike next week. However, the probability of a 25 basis point hike by November stands at 35% with this jumping to 44% by December, according to Fed funds futures.

How might the Fed decision impact the NQ100_m?

The NQ100_m index is filled with tech stocks that dislike higher interest rates because their value is based on earnings projected in the future.

  • The NQ100_m could find itself under fresh selling pressure if the Federal Reserve signals that one more rate hike is still on the table in 2023.
  • Should Jerome Powell strike a cautious tone, and the economic projections/dot plot suggests that the Fed may be done with raising rates, this could push the NQ100_m higher.

Looking at the technical picture…

The NQ100_m remains trapped within a range on the daily charts with support at 15200 and resistance at 15630. Prices seem to be riding above the 50-day SMA while the MACD trades above zero. A breakout could be on the horizon, but this may require the assistance of a potent fundamental spark.

  • A solid daily close and breakout above 15630 may inspire a move higher toward 15800 and 15947, respectively.
  • Should prices sink below 15200, this could trigger a decline towards 15000 and 14670.

Zooming out, there is a larger range on the weekly charts with support at 14670 and resistance at 15840. A solid breakout and close above 15840 may inspire a move to levels not seen since January 2022 at 16500. Should prices slip below 14670, the next key level of interest can be found around 14440.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Oil is hitting new highs again. The ECB has reached its peak interest rate

By JustMarkets

On Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.00%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.85%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.81% on Thursday.

Weekly US Initial Jobless Claims rose by 3,000 to 220,000 from expectations of 5,000, indicating a stronger than expected labor market. The data boosted equities and reinforced the assumption that the Fed will be able to achieve a soft landing for the US economy. The US goods and services price index for August accelerated to 1.6% y/y from 0.8% y/y in July, the highest reading in 4 months and slightly stronger than expectations of 1.3% y/y. US retail sales for August rose by 0.6% m/m, which was stronger than expectations of 0.1% m/m. The probability of a rate hike by the US Fed has decreased further. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate hike at the September 20 FOMC meeting at 2% and a 25 bps hike at the November 1 FOMC meeting at 35%.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.97%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 1.19% on Thursday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.44%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 1.95%. The ECB decision contributed to the growth of European indices. Yesterday, the ECB raised the main refinancing rate by 25 bps to 4.50% from 4.25% and said the new level would make a “significant contribution” to controlling inflation. The ECB signaled its intention to maintain this rate, stating the following: “Based on the current assessment, the Governing Council considers that the ECB’s key interest rates have reached levels that, if maintained for a sufficiently long time, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to target.” In other words, the ECB hinted at the end of the tightening cycle. The ECB also lowered its 2023 eurozone GDP forecast to 0.7% from the previous forecast of 0.9% and raised its 2023 inflation forecast to 5.6% from the previous forecast of 5.4%.

Oil prices are creeping higher, raising concerns about the impact on the downward trajectory of inflation. Prices for West Texas Intermediate crude, the US benchmark, are up 15% year-to-date and are above $90 a barrel. Prices for Brent crude, the international benchmark, are up 5% for the year and have also crossed the $90 mark. Saudi Arabia and Russia recently agreed to extend voluntary oil production cuts until the end of this year, reducing the global market by 1.3 million barrels of oil and boosting energy prices. Yesterday, oil prices were supported by news from China. The Bank of China (PBoC) lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 25 bps to 10.50% from 10.75%, which could stimulate economic growth and boost energy demand in China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer.

The EIA natural gas inventory report published on Thursday showed an increase of 57 bcf over the last week. This reflected negatively on prices as inventories came in above expectations at 50 bcf, although below the 5-year average for this time of year of 76 bcf. As of September 8, natural gas inventories were up 15.7% YoY and 6.8% above the 5-year seasonal average, indicating a sufficient natural gas supply.

Asian markets were mostly up on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.41% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.08%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day up by 0.21%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended Thursday positive 0.46%.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) lowered the reserve requirement ratio for most banks by 25 bps to 10.50% from 10.75%. Lowering the norm frees up cash for banks, allowing them to lend more to businesses and consumers. It will also lead to more liquidity in the Chinese economy, which could boost growth.

Data released on Friday also showed that China’s industrial production and retail sales rose more than expected in August. However, fixed asset investment declined, and new home sales fell, indicating that much of Asia’s largest economy remains under pressure. Chinese stocks have suffered significant losses for the year amid growing concerns that the country’s economic recovery is much slower than initially expected.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,505.56 +38.12 (+0.85%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,921.53 +346.00 (+1.00%)

DAX (DE40)  15,805.29 +151.26 (+0.97%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,673.08 +147.09 (+1.95%)

USD Index  105.36 +0.60 (+0.57%)

Important events for today:
  • – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

US inflation data came out mixed. The labor market in Australia remains resilient

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.20% at Wednesday’s close, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.12%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.29%. US consumer prices rose to 3.7% y/y in August vs. 3.2% y/y in July, which was stronger than expectations of 3.6% y/y. However, the market was supported by core inflation data. Core CPI declined to 4.3% y/y in August from 4.7% y/y in July, which matched expectations and was the smallest increase in nearly two years.

Moderna (MRNA) rose more than 6% yesterday, leading gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 stocks after it reported that a modified version of its flu shot met key targets in a late-stage trial, paving the way for FDA approval of the vaccine. Ford Motor (F) shares are up more than 2% after UBS upgraded them to a “buy” rating with a $15 price target. General Motors (GM) shares added nearly 1% after UBS upgraded their rating to “buy” from “neutral” with a $44 price target.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down by 0.39%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) fell by 0.42% on Wednesday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.12%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.02%.

Eurozone industrial production fell by 1.1% m/m in July, weaker than expectations of 0.9% m/m and the largest decline in 4 months. The ECB will hold its monetary policy meeting today. The probability of a 25bp ECB rate hike on Thursday rose to 64% from 46% after Reuters reported that the ECB’s inflation forecasts to be released today will remain above 3% in 2024, reinforcing support for a more hawkish ECB policy.

The weekly EIA report released on Wednesday was mostly bearish for crude oil and refined products. According to the EIA, crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 3.96 million barrels versus expectations for a decline of 2.475 million barrels. In addition, gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose by 5.56 million barrels vs. expectations for a decline of 850k barrels as US gasoline demand fell by 10.9% week-on-week to 8.307 million BPD, the lowest in 7 months. It also should be noted that September and October are typically seasonally weak months for oil.

Asian markets were mostly down on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.21% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.23%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.09%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended Wednesday negative 0.74%.

After an unexpected drop in the number of jobs in Australia in July, there was an increase in August, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating that the labor market remains resilient. Immediately following the data release, the Australian dollar hit a nine-day-high, bolstering the case for the RBA to raise the rate again as inflation remains high and the labor market remains resilient. Incoming RBA chief Michelle Bullock warned that policy decisions would be made month by month, depending on economic data.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,467.44 +5.54 (+0.12%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,575.53 −70.46 (−0.20%)

DAX (DE40)  15,654.03 −61.50 (−0.39%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,525.99 −1.54 (−0.02%)

USD Index  104.76 +0.05 (+0.05%)

Important events for today:
  • – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

US CPI: Fed likely to prepare for another interest rate hike

By George Prior 

The Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in September, before hiking them again next time, predicts the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The prediction from Nigel Green of deVere Group comes as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US jumped 3.7% year on year in August, up from the 3.2% increase recorded in July.

The Core CPI figure was 4.3% in the same period, down from a 4.7% growth in July.

He says: “Inflation heated up again last month in the world’s largest economy, driven mainly by rising oil costs. The core measure, which strips away volatile food and energy prices, cooled on an annual basis.

“This latest US CPI data is unlikely to move the needle on the Fed’s highly anticipated move to hold rates steady at their meeting next week – which has already been priced-in by financial markets.

“But the uptick in inflation gives the US central bank extra reason to be hawkish moving forward. As such, we also expect the Fed will start to prepare the market for a rate increase at its November meeting.”

The deVere CEO goes on to add that he believes this is the time for the Fed to stop, not pause, rate hikes.

“The time lag for monetary policies is incredibly lengthy. It takes around 18 months for the full effect of rate hikes to make their way into the economy.

“We’re now starting to see the drag effects on the US economy with households and businesses becoming considerably more prudent. In addition, investors are becoming more and more concerned that additional hikes could steer the US economy into a recession.”

He concludes: “The battle against inflation is being won – but battles like this are never won in a totally straight line – they go up and down incrementally, but the trajectory is clearly favorable, and the case for stopping rate hikes is compelling.

“The effects of previous Fed actions haven’t come through fully, but they will, and an increase could cause years of damage.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Silicon Valley investors want to create a new city – is ‘California Forever’ a utopian dream or just smart business?

By Iain White, University of Waikato 

He was, said George Bernard Shaw, “one of those heroic simpletons who do big things whilst our prominent worldlings are explaining why they are Utopian and impossible”.

The celebrated playwright was referring to the ideas of Ebenezer Howard, the creative force behind the idea of “garden cities” in the late 19th and early 20th centuries; new urban centres that Howard argued would have the best of town and country, but without the problems.

There’s a reminder of that somewhat backhanded compliment in the recent news of a Silicon Valley consortium named Flannery Associates buying land with a view to creating a new city in northern California’s Solano County. The controversial project is named after the investment vehicle’s parent company, California Forever.

The parallels between contemporary utopian thinking and Howard’s ideas from more than a century ago are readily apparent. The notion of something like California Forever may appear cutting edge, but it is part of the historical foundations of current planning systems.

Indeed, the science-fiction writer H.G. Wells – a futurist whose own ideas would resonate with many in Silicon Valley – was so attracted to Howard’s ideas that he joined the Garden City Association to support their creation.

Garden city visions

Any kind of new city model tends to reflect the politics of its founders. The vision and plans stretch beyond the built form to picture a preferred lifestyle, and interactions with nature and each other.

The artist’s renderings accompanying the California Forever project depict an attractive, harmonious landscape familiar to utopian thinking: plentiful parks, open spaces and sustainable energy.

It encapsulates a politics of urban living that also emphasises the need to recast our relationships with nature. As such, these ideas also involve a large dose of social engineering. They are not just about creating a new built environment, they envision a new kind of society that’s better than the current one.

But the garden cities that were eventually developed were a far cry from Howard’s initial vision. In fact, his ideas from over a hundred years ago make those from Silicon Valley look distinctly dated.

For Howard, it was as much about social reform and organisation as city planning. He advocated for local production and relatively self-contained settlements to reduce the need to travel, as well as innovative ways of treating waste that echo current circular economy thinking.

Planning and profit

Even less like the investment logic behind California Forever, Howard also imagined a city that could challenge some of the precepts of capitalism.

Given the significant deprivation and social divide between haves and have-nots, he advocated that land in garden cities could be organised cooperatively to share wealth and reduce poverty.

The need to attract investors was one of the reasons Howard’s ambitious politics eroded. To purchase land on that scale requires significant capital, and the providers of that capital would no doubt be looking for a return.

Ebenezer Howard.
Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-NC

Should California Forever materialise, history would caution us that there may be a similar gap between rhetoric and reality. While Howard’s ideas were partially implemented in places like Letchworth, the focus was more on the built environment than social justice or sustainability.

Howard moved into the new city, but his influence was marginalised by the need to accommodate shareholder interests.

While we don’t know how California Forever has been pitched to investors, it’s a fair assumption it is also shaped by the profit motive: buying cheaper agricultural land, rezoning for housing and development, drawing in state funding for infrastructure, and seeing the land rise in value.

While the images appear sustainable, long-distance commuting may be a problem given the nature of the labour market in California, as might expectations of genuine community involvement in the project. Utopian schemes have long been critiqued for their tendency towards authoritarianism – a charge not unfamiliar to the tech sector in recent times.

Howard’s ideas were also criticised as anti-urban. Shouldn’t we seek to improve existing cities rather than abandon and start anew, possibly to create a gentrified enclave?

For the tech sector, too, there is a recurring utopian trend that seeks to escape – whether to moon colonies or new cities – rather than use its vast wealth and influence to address current urban problems.

Progress and planning

But, ultimately, it’s encouraging to see groups like the Silicon Valley investors advocate for the benefits of good urban planning and what it can provide future generations. The bigger problem is that current planning systems aren’t anything like as progressive.

In many countries, similarly powerful investors routinely criticise urban planning as creating “red tape”, increasing the costs of development, or stopping markets from acting “efficiently”.

Yet the kind of city building represented by California Forever requires greater regulatory power and the kind of political ambition that was more common a century ago. And it raises the question of whether projects like this should be left to the private sector.

At the very least, perhaps, such initiatives provide an opportunity to reassess the potential of urban planning and cast a light on current societal problems. Howard’s utopian vision was designed to solve the problems of his time: exploitative landlords, slums, polluted cities and extreme disparities of wealth.

Whether or not California Forever is built, the reasons behind the idea demonstrate that while history may not repeat, it does sometimes rhyme.The Conversation

About the Author:

Iain White, Professor of Environmental Planning, University of Waikato

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Norway sees a drop in inflation. Natural gas rises amid workers’ strikes in Australia

By JustMarkets 

As of Monday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.25%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.67%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.14% on Monday. Strengthening tech stocks provided support to the overall market yesterday. Tesla shares rose more than 7% after Morgan Stanley upgraded their rating. Additionally, Qualcomm shares were up more than 3% after Apple extended its contract with the company to supply semiconductor chips for modems for another three years.

On Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Yellen made bullish comments for equities, saying she “feels very good” about the premise of a soft landing as “all inflation indicators are going down,” and she is increasingly confident that the United States will be able to contain inflation without severely damaging the labor market.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) added 0.39%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.52% on Monday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.75%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.25% up.

The European Commission lowered its 2023 eurozone GDP forecast to 0.8% from the previously projected 1.1%. It also lowered the Eurozone inflation forecast for 2023 to 5.6% from the previous forecast of 5.8%. Italian industrial production for July fell by 0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.3% m/m.

Berenberg currency analysts believe that the leveling of interest rates in the US and Europe, as well as the declining attractiveness of the US dollar as a safe haven, point to the possibility of a revival of the euro in the coming periods. Excess US government debt combined with potential refinancing difficulties could put downward pressure on dollar strength and give confidence to the euro. By the end of 2023, analysts forecast a significant strengthening of the euro against the dollar to 1.1200.

Norwegian inflation slowed more than expected in August. Data showed core inflation falling from 5.4% to 4.8% y/y and core inflation from 6.4% to 6.3% y/y. The consensus forecast pointed to an acceleration. All this raises doubts that Norges Bank will go for further monetary tightening. However, it should be understood that inflation is not as important to Norges Bank as it is to other central banks because Norway’s Central Bank operates on a model-based approach that places great importance on currency fluctuations and oil prices.

On Monday, oil prices fell from their highest in nearly ten months amid concerns about global energy demand after the European Commission cut its Eurozone GDP forecast. But dollar weakness on Monday provided support for energy prices. In addition, crude oil received support last Tuesday when Saudi Arabia and Russia announced an extension of oil production cuts until the end of the year. Oil was also supported by news of increased credit demand in China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, which could lead to stronger economic growth and energy demand.

On Monday, natural gas prices received support from a rise in European gas prices to a one-week high. LNG production workers at key Chevron facilities in Australia began a partial strike last week after talks with management failed to reach an agreement. The workers said that if no agreement is reached, they will completely stop work for two weeks starting this Thursday.

Asian markets traded flat on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.43% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.67%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.58% on the day, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.50% on Monday.

In China, authorities returned to strong measures to defend the yuan. This came after the USD/CNY pair rose above the 7.30 level. Along with a much stronger CNY fixing, the PBoC issued a statement saying that market participants should “voluntarily maintain a stable market” and avoid speculative trades. However, sentiment towards China is still wary as other economic indicators for August continued to point to continued unfavorable factors for Asia’s largest economy.

Alibaba shares fell by 1.8% on Tuesday, extending losses after the head of its cloud division unexpectedly resigned this week.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,487.46 +29.97 (+0.67%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,663.72 +87.13 (+0.25%)

DAX (DE40)  15,800.99 +60.69 (+0.39%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,496.87 +18.68 (+0.25%)

USD Index  104.53 -0.57 (-0.53%)

Important events for today:
  • – Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

ECB could push EU into long recession with rate rise on Thursday

By George Prior

The European Central Bank would risk plunging the European Union into a long recession if it decides to raise interest rates at its pivotal meeting on Thursday, following the growth downgrades of the bloc by the European Commission.

This is the stark warning from Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, after the Commission, the executive arm of the EU, said on Monday that the economy will expand by just 0.8% this year and 1.4% in 2024.

The figures represent a downgrade from predictions by Brussels in May of 1% growth in 2023 and 1.7% next year.

The Commission also said that Germany is set for an extended recession in 2023 – it’s the only major European economy to witness an economic contraction this year.

Nigel Green comments: “It’s reported that the ECB’s decision on whether to raise interest rates or not on Thursday is on a knife-edge. This is because the central bank is having to deal with stalling growth and persistently high inflation.

“But we urge the ECB to refrain from raising interest rates considering the economic context and potential consequences.”

He continues: “The 0.4% contraction in Germany’s economy, coupled with the European Commission’s downward revision of growth expectations, suggests that the trajectory might be less stable than anticipated.

“In such a precarious environment, raising interest rates would further hinder economic growth and job creation.

“The largest economy in Europe is already struggling. Higher borrowing costs for businesses and consumers will further stifle investment and consumption, which are essential drivers of economic recovery. With Germany’s economy facing headwinds, it is crucial to maintain affordable-as-possible financing options to support businesses and individuals alike.

“Due to its size and influence, should the economic situation in Germany get worse due to further rate rises, there’s a real risk that the wider EU could be plunged into a long recession.”

The deVere CEO goes on to add: “The time lag for monetary policies is incredibly lengthy. It takes around 18 months for the full effect of rate hikes to make their way into the economy – and that’s where we are – and so financial conditions will get squeezed even harder in the near term.”

The ECB must also consider the economic divergence within the Eurozone. Raising interest rates could exacerbate disparities and potentially lead to further divergence among Eurozone countries.

It is crucial for the ECB to communicate its intentions clearly, notes the deVere CEO, to the markets and the public. Raising interest rates without adequate explanation could lead to market volatility and confusion, which are detrimental to economic stability.

He concludes: “Despite the risks of steering the wider EU into a recession with another rate rise, we expect that the ECB will argue it is still too soon to pause in its battle against inflation and, therefore, will go for one final hike on Thursday.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Analysts forecast a significant euro rise by the year’s end. Inflation in China returned to positive dynamics

By JustMarkets

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.22% (-0.86% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.14% (-1.61% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.09% on Friday (-2.61% for the week). Strengthening crude oil prices on Friday boosted energy stocks and the broader market. Stocks also received support as the likelihood grew regarding a pause in Fed rate hikes amid comments from Dallas FRB Governor Lorie Logan, who stated the following: “Another pass at raising interest rates may be appropriate at the FOMC meeting later this month.” Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate hike at the September 20 FOMC meeting at 7% and a 25 bps rate hike at the November 1 FOMC meeting at 48%.

Friday’s US economic news was negative for equities after consumer credit rose by $10.399 billion in July, weaker than expectations of $16.000 billion. On Friday, Canadian labor market data was released. In July, the number of employed in the Canadian economy increased by 39.9k, which was above expectations of 18.9k. The unemployment rate remained at 5.5%. A more detailed report showed that overall, Canada’s labor market remains resilient, but imbalances in certain sectors are widening, which could lead to problems in the future.

A draft document prepared by G-20 leaders meeting this weekend in India warned that “cascading crises” pose challenges to long-term economic growth and called for coordinated macroeconomic policies to support the global economy. In addition, global economic growth is uneven and below the long-term average as uncertainty about the economic outlook remains high, and the balance of risks tilts to the downside.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 0.14% (-1.03% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.62% (-1.25% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.61% (-1.27% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.49% (+0.18% for the week).

Berenberg currency analysts believe that the leveling of interest rates in the US and Europe, as well as the declining attractiveness of the US dollar as a safe haven, point to the possibility of a revival of the euro in the coming periods. Excess US government debt combined with potential refinancing difficulties could put downward pressure on dollar strength and give confidence to the euro. By the end of 2023, analysts forecast a significant strengthening of the euro against the dollar to 1.1200.

Asian markets were predominantly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.58% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 2.77%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week down by 2.10%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week negative by 1.67%.

HSBC currency strategists revised downward their forecasts for the Australian (AUD) and New Zealand (NZD) dollars against the US dollar (USD). Firstly, they assume that AUD and NZD will experience a weakening trend before stabilizing in the second quarter of 2024, with AUD/USD and NZD/USD rates reaching 0.62 and 0.55, respectively, by the end of the first half of 2024.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said over the weekend that the central bank may end its negative interest rate policy when the 2% inflation target is reached, indicating a possible interest rate hike. Ueda said the central bank may have enough data by the end of the year to determine whether it can end negative rates. Currently, the BoJ is targeting short-term interest rates at 0.1% as part of its negative rate policy. In addition, 10-year government bond yields are at zero as part of efforts to revitalize the economy and sustainably meet targets.

Consumer prices in China returned to positive momentum in August, while the decline in factory prices slowed. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in August, slower than the median estimate of a 0.2% increase. The CPI declined by 0.3% in July. Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices, was unchanged at 0.8% in August. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.0% from a year earlier, which was in line with expectations, after falling by 4.4% in July. According to analysts, overall, rate inflation still points to weak demand and requires more active policy support from the government.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,457.49 +6.35 (+0.14%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,576.59 +75.86 (+0.22%)

DAX (DE40)  15,740.30 +21.64 (+0.14%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,478.19 +36.47 (+0.49%)

USD Index  105.07 +0.01 (+0.01%)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Interest Rates: From 0% to Above 5% — to …?

“The lines in the chart will turn up, and no policy will stop it”

By Elliott Wave International

As you’re probably aware, many people who want to borrow to make a major purchase like a house or a car are bemoaning higher interest rates.

It wasn’t so long ago that 3-month T-bill rates were around zero, and at least one prominent figure at the Federal Reserve said rates needed to stay super low for a good while.

Indeed, let’s go back to this June 18, 2021 headline (CNBC):

Fed’s Kashkari opposed to rate hikes at least through 2023

Well, as Elliott Wave International has said time and again, the market determines the trend of bond yields (and interest rates), not the Fed. The Fed merely follows the bond market.

Nearly a month after that Fed official called for a continuation of very low rates, the July 13, 2021 Elliott Wave Theorist offered its own perspective via this chart and commentary (The Elliott Wave Theorist is a monthly publication which provides insights into major financial and social trends):

Rates at Zero, but Not for Long

[The chart] shows that U.S. Treasury bill rates have edged closer and closer to zero …. Nonexistent T-bill yields are due to one thing: historically elevated social mood. … When optimism and complacency finally melt like popsicles in the sun, the lines in [the chart] will turn up, and no policy will stop it.

Fast forward to the just-published August 2023 Elliott Wave Theorist, which provides an update on that July 2021 call with this chart:

As you can see, since our forecast, the 3-month T-bill rates have climbed from around zero to north of 5%. The black arrow points to the juncture at which the July 2021 Theorist made that noteworthy forecast. Mind you, Elliott Wave International was almost alone in making such a call.

Is the rise in interest rates over?

Well, at least one observer says “no.” This Aug. 18 Fox Business caption captures the view of a contributor to a news and opinion website:

[Financial and economics editor]: Interest rates will go higher than Americans think

This is in stark contrast to a recent Reuters poll of economists, the majority of whom say that interest rates have plateaued.

Who’s right?

You may want to check out a chart of bond yields and its Elliott wave structure.

If you’re unfamiliar with Elliott wave analysis, read Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from the book:

Without Elliott, there appear to be an infinite number of possibilities for market action. What the Wave Principle provides is a means of first limiting the possibilities and then ordering the relative probabilities of possible future market paths. Elliott’s highly specific rules reduce the number of valid alternatives to a minimum.

If you’d like to find out about “Elliott’s highly specific rules,” you can do so by reading the online version of Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior for free.

That’s right — Elliott Wave International has made this definitive text on Elliott wave analysis available to Club EWI members for free. A Club EWI membership is also free and members enjoy free access to a wealth of Elliott wave educational resources.

Join the approximately 500,000 Club EWI members who are already gaining insights into trading and investing from an Elliott wave perspective by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior(get free access now).

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Interest Rates: From 0% to Above 5% — to …?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Trade relations between the US and China are escalating again. Natural gas rises as inventories fall

By JustMarkets 

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.17%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.32%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.89% yesterday. The broader market was under pressure yesterday due to weakness in technology stocks. Apple (AAPL) stock prices fell again by more than 3% yesterday amid a Wall Street Journal report that China plans to extend its iPhone ban to government agencies and state-owned companies. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) fell more than 2%, complementing Wednesday’s 2% drop after Research Affiliates said the stock is “a textbook story of a Big Market Delusion,” and with the stock trading at 110 times earnings, the stock is off the charts.

Stocks were also pressured by news that weekly US jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a 7-month low, indicating the strength of the labor market and could prompt the Fed to raise interest rates for longer.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.14%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed just above the open, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) was 0.07% cheaper, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 0.21%.

Eurozone Q2 GDP was revised downward to 0.1% Q/Q and 0.5% Y/Y from the previously announced 0.3% Q/Q and 0.6% Y/Y. German industrial production for July fell by 0.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.4% y/y. The Eurozone economy is showing resilience but with signs of an early slowdown.

Crude oil prices moved lower yesterday amid a stronger dollar and concerns over energy demand. The dollar index rose to a nearly 6-month high on Thursday, and global economic news was mostly weaker than expected, suggesting weaker energy demand.

Natural gas prices bounced off a two-week low on Thursday and rose moderately on lower weekly supplies after EIA natural gas inventories rose by  33 bcf, below expectations of  41 bcf. As of September 5, European natural gas storage inventories were 92% full, well above the 5-year seasonal average of 82% for this time of year. The US natural gas inventories as of September 1 were 7.6% above the 5-year seasonal average. Gas was also boosted by news from Australia. Workers at an Australian LNG plant are threatening two weeks of 24-hour shutdowns at two major export plants starting September 14 unless an agreement is reached. Inspired Plc predicted that Asian LNG buyers are “likely to raise LNG import prices” to replace Australian volumes in the event of a workers’ strike. Australia is the world’s third-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), accounting for 10% of global supply.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.75%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.22%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 1.34%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended Thursday negative by 1.19%. Most Asian stocks continued to decline on Friday as weak economic data from Japan added to concerns about slowing growth, while the prospect of higher US interest rates and deteriorating Sino-US relations weighed on technology stocks.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was the worst-performing index in Asia, down by 1%, after data showed Japan’s economy grew by 1.2% in the second quarter, less than the originally estimated 1.5%. The weak figures suggest that ongoing stimulus measures from the Bank of Japan may not be supporting growth as much as originally expected, which dampened investor sentiment toward local equities.

Asian tech stocks have been hit by calls from US lawmakers for a complete ban on technology exports to China after two companies, namely Huawei and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, allegedly violated US trade restrictions. The move, coupled with Beijing’s recent restrictions on Apple, has heightened fears of deteriorating trade ties between the world’s largest economies, which could trigger a renewed trade war.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,451.14 −14.34 (−0.32%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,500.73 +57.54 (+0.17%)

DAX (DE40)  15,718.66 −22.71 (−0.14%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,441.72 +15.58 (+0.21%)

USD Index  105.04 +0.18 (+0.17%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan GDP (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.