Archive for Economics & Fundamentals – Page 85

Fresh water is a hidden challenge − and opportunity − for global supply chains

By Dustin Cole, Auburn University 

Reports of lengthy shipping delays for vessels traveling through the Panama Canal this year have highlighted the critical but often overlooked role that fresh water plays across global supply chains. Drier than normal conditions in Panama, brought on by El Niño, have left the region drought-stricken and water levels in the locks that feed the canal lower than normal. This has led to fewer ships being able to pass through the canal each day: only 31 ships currently, compared with 36 to 38 under normal conditions. This means longer waits to move products through the canal and onto store shelves.

The slowdown at the Panama Canal shows how access to fresh water is key to the way goods are made and shipped, affecting everything from the price of groceries to retail forecasts for the upcoming holiday shopping season. As a professor of supply chain management, I think businesses would be wise to pay closer attention to this issue.

But first, you might ask: What does fresh water have to do with ocean freight? Plenty, it turns out.

Water, water everywhere, and not enough to share

The Panama Canal is a freshwater connection between two oceans – not a saltwater link, as one might assume. A series of locks on each side of the canal raise cargo freighters nearly 100 feet to human-made lakes that extend across Panama’s isthmus and lower them down to sea level on the other side.

Each crossing by a ship requires 52 million gallons of fresh water from lakes, rivers and streams across this small country. This creates a trade-off between preserving water for local needs and using it to allow ships to traverse the canal. Less water allocated to the canal means fewer ships can pass through.

This isn’t an isolated phenomenon. Periodic low water levels in the Mississippi River and the Rhine River in Germany have impeded barge traffic for years, disrupting supply chains while stoking debate about how to divide limited amounts of fresh water. Recent plans by communities in northern Colorado to build their own reservoirs on tributaries of the Colorado River highlight questions about who owns access to local waterways and how this resource is governed.

An ancient challenge

The need to manage water resources isn’t new, with complex water management systems dating back to the Roman Empire and even earlier. Humankind has made great progress on water management over the centuries, but in recent years the issue has often taken a back seat to other pressing environmental concerns such as global warming.

Water management is complicated by the fact that businesses and communities sometimes find themselves in conflict: Businesses want to use water for their operations, while communities want to preserve water supplies to ensure that residents’ basic needs are met. At the same time, communities also need the jobs and services that businesses provide. Examples such as the Panama Canal highlight this tension.

Balancing these seemingly contrary needs calls for a deeper look into how much water is used in the making of products people buy and use every day.

As my colleagues and I show in a recent journal article, water is an important component of almost everything people buy. For example, roughly 2,600 gallons of water goes into making the fabric for a single pair of jeans. From growing cotton for the fibers needed to manufacturing the denim and getting those jeans onto shelves at The Gap, more and more water is embedded into each pair as it moves through the supply chain.

Essentially, businesses use water to transport water embedded in virtually all products they sell. This is why businesses have more than purely altruistic reasons to address water-related problems: It isn’t just good for society but also their own operations. A lack of water can hamper production and disrupt the supply chains that businesses rely on.

Inside the world’s largest cargo shipping bottleneck. | WSJ.

Solutions for businesses

There are a number of ways in which businesses can improve their water management to reduce their own consumption – and costs – while limiting their exposure to water risks.

First, companies should realize that not everything requires clean water. Wastewater from one process can be used for another that doesn’t require clean water. Similarly, not every process pollutes water, so reuse is easy for wastewater resulting from those processes, such as water used for cooling.

Second, firms can share wastewater between facilities for reuse, a concept called industrial ecology. For example, nutrient-rich water from food production can be used for farm irrigation rather than being discharged.

And third, since water is an excellent medium for heat transfer, rather than trying to cool one area and heat another, companies can connect the systems. For example, global aluminum giant Novelis is deploying hot water used in the casting process at one of its plants in Europe to heat a neighboring building.

Opportunities abound for improving management of fresh water – one of our most precious resources. While stronger government regulations and expanded reporting requirements will help, decisions by businesses themselves can move that needle even more.

For those who do, their standing in the communities in which they operate will surely benefit – as will their bottom lines.The Conversation

About the Author:

Dustin Cole, Assistant Professor of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Japan’s GDP contracted in the third quarter. The UK has seen inflation fall sharply

By JustMarkets

Stocks rose sharply on Tuesday and bond yields were down after US consumer prices fell more than expected in October, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain its pause. As of Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 1.43%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) jumped 1.91%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.37%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (US500) and Dow Jones (US30) indices hit two-month highs, while the Nasdaq (US100) index hit a 3-month-high.

October US CPI declined to 3.2% y/y from 3.7% y/y in September, which was better than expectations of 3.3% y/y. In addition, the core CPI excluding food and energy declined to 4.0% y/y from 4.1% y/y in September, which was better than expected and the smallest increase in two years.

Comments from FRB President Richmond Barkin indicated that he favors maintaining a pause in Fed rate hikes when he stated that the impact of rate hikes may be delayed, but with rates capped, the Fed has time to monitor the economy.

A negative factor for stocks continues to be a possible US government shutdown. The US lawmakers have until Friday evening to pass a temporary spending bill before funding runs out and the government shuts down.

Equity markets in Europe rose steadily on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.76%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 1.39% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 1.72%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 0.20%.

Good news for the Bank of England: services inflation fell even more than expected. Services inflation came in below the Bank of England’s October forecast and that pretty much rules out further rate tightening this year. Last year’s 25% rise in household energy tariffs disappeared from annual comparisons, and electricity/gas prices fell by 7% in October this year. And while that drop was a much smaller factor, food price inflation also slowed significantly. As a result, the core CPI is now at 4.6% y/y, down from 6.7% y/y in September.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up by 0.34% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.02%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.17% for the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.83%.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injected additional funds to support the weak economy. Although the one-year medium-term lending rate (1Y MLF) was left at 2.5%, the Bank of China injected 600 billion yuan (over and above the amount due) to support stimulus spending. Increased funding will support a recovery in activity.

A former senior Japanese financial official said on Wednesday that the weakening yen could be caused not only by the interest rate differential between Japan and the US, but also by structural factors such as the deteriorating fiscal situation. Under such conditions, any currency interventions by the authorities will not help to reverse the situation on the market.

Japan’s gross domestic product contracted by 0.5% in Q3. On an annualized basis, Japan’s economy contracted by 2.1%, well above expectations of a 0.6% contraction and a sharp pullback from the 4.5% growth in the previous quarter. The figure was the first contraction in Japan’s GDP in three quarters and signaled that consumption-driven growth in Japan’s economy may be slowing after booming earlier this year.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,495.70 +84.15 (+1.91%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,827.70 +489.83 (+1.43%)

DAX (DE40)  15,614.43 +269.43 (+1.76%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,440.47 +14.64 (+0.20%)

USD Index  104.08 −1.55 (−1.47%)

News feed for 2023.11.14:
  • – Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – Australia Wage Price Index (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

US CPI surprisingly cool boosting end of year market rally – what investors should do

By George Prior 

US inflation (CPI) comes in cooler than expected but investors still need to adjust to a ‘higher-for-longer’ interest rate environments, warns CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The warning from Nigel Green of deVere Group comes as the October consumer price index was flat month on month, and up 0.2% when excluding food and energy for the core CPI reading.

He notes: “The surprisingly cool CPI solidifies our expectations that the Federal Reserve is done with hiking rates this year and will hold them steady in December.

“However, we believe there will be a sustained period of slower progress than we’ve seen up to this point against inflation in the flight to get it back to the 2% target. The process is going to be more gradual moving forward.

“Therefore, we except one more hike from the Fed next year to boost that progress a little.”

Furthermore, the deVere CEO also says the US CPI readings support his anticipation of a year-end market rally in 2023.

At the end of October he told the media: “We’re about to see a year-end rally, which investors would not want to miss out on as markets turn bullish on the Fed likely holding rates steady.”

As interest rates are anticipated to remain elevated for an extended period and a year-end market rally is expected, investors must adopt a prudent approach to navigate these evolving financial landscapes.

They should strategically consider sectors that exhibit resilience and potential for sustained growth.

“One such sector to contemplate is tech, given its capacity for continuous innovation and the increasing reliance on digitalization across industries. Technology companies often have robust fundamentals and can adapt to changing economic conditions, making them appealing in a rising interest rate scenario,” says Nigel Green

“Additionally, healthcare is another sector worth attention, as demographic trends, an aging population, and ongoing medical advancements contribute to the sector’s long-term stability. The demand for healthcare services tends to persist regardless of economic cycles, providing a defensive quality for investors.

“Furthermore, the financial sector may benefit from higher interest rates, as it can enhance profit margins for banks and financial institutions. As interest rates rise, these entities often experience improved net interest income, which can positively impact their overall performance.

“Most importantly, as ever, maintaining a diversified portfolio remains crucial.” Reassess your investment goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon to ensure your portfolio aligns with your financial objectives.

He concludes: “We’re in a new investment era. Your investment mix needs to reflect this to build your wealth.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Japanese policymakers are ready to intervene to support the yen. In the US, inflationary pressures are expected to ease

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.16%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.08%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 0.22%. The broad market recovered from early losses on Monday after bond yields reversed to the downside, prompting coverage of short positions in equities. In addition, optimism that Tuesday’s US consumer price report for October would show an easing of price pressures gave stocks a boost.

On Friday, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded its outlook on the US credit rating from stable to negative, citing rising budget deficits and political polarization. The US lawmakers have until Friday evening this week to pass a temporary spending bill before funding runs out and the government shuts down.

Today, the US will release its CPI report. The Consumer Price Index is on the US Federal Reserve’s list of monitored indicators when regulating monetary policy. This report will measure the Fed’s progress in the fight to reduce inflation. Economists expect consumer inflation to show an increase of 0.1% on a monthly basis, while on an annualized basis, it is expected to decline from 3.7% to 3.3%. A sharper weakening in inflation could lead to renewed talk of a rate peak, fueled by the October jobs report, which pointed to weakening labor market conditions. But a cooling in demand is needed for Fed officials to have confidence that they are convincingly moving toward an inflation target. Demand is expressed in consumer spending, and that is usually retail sales and other related reports on how Americans spend money. Therefore, tomorrow’s retail sales data will give a better indication of the US Fed’s future trajectory.

Equity markets in Europe rallied solidly on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.89%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.60% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.96%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 0.89%.

Inside the ECB, there is growing uncertainty over future plans. A representative of the ECB Governing Council, Kazaks, said yesterday that further ECB policy tightening seems to have become less necessary. His colleague, ECB Vice President Gindos, on the other hand, did not share this thought. Gindos said it was “premature” to discuss interest rate cuts because “we expect a temporary rebound in inflation in the coming months as the base effect of the sharp rise in energy and food prices in the fall of 2022 fades.”

Crude oil and gasoline prices rose moderately on Monday. A weaker dollar on Monday provided support for energy prices. In addition, expectations of increased fuel demand in the US during the Thanksgiving holiday are a favorable factor for crude oil prices.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.05% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.44%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.30% for the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative by 0.40% for Monday.

Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Monday that policymakers will respond to sharp fluctuations in the yen as needed. The Bank of Japan is unhappy with the recent decline in the yen, which has fallen by 1.45% against the US dollar in the past week alone. According to analysts, if the yen breaks through the 152 mark, there is a high probability of currency intervention by the Japanese authorities.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects inflation in Australia and New Zealand to fall to just below 3% by the end of 2024, which would be in line with both central banks’ targets and pave the way for lower interest rates. The cooling in prices will be driven by global commodity inflation, lower labor demand, and wage pressures. This would open the door for both central banks to begin easing monetary policy from late next year. Goldman’s view diverges sharply from forecasts by Australia’s central bank, which last week raised interest rates to a 12-year high of 4.35%, predicting CPI will exceed its 2-3% target until mid-2025. On Monday, acting Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Marion Kohler said the next phase of inflation’s return to target is likely to be more “protracted.”

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,411.55 −3.69 (−0.084%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,337.87 +54.77 (+0.16%)

DAX (DE40)  15,345.00 +110.61 (+0.73%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,425.83 +65.28 (+0.89%)

USD Index  105.68 −0.19 (−0.18%)

News feed for 2023.11.14:
  • – Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland Chairman Jordan Speaks at 09:45 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks at 19:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

US stock indices reached 2-month highs. The earning season met investors’ expectations

By JustMarkets

On Friday, gains in chip stocks and technology megamergers drove the overall market higher. As of Friday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 1.15% (+0.56% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up by 1.56% (+1.17% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 2.05% (+2.10% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) and the Dow Jones Industrials (US300) reached 7-week highs and the NASDAQ (US100) tested a 2-month-high.

Friday’s Fed comments had a mixed impact on stocks. On the negative side, Atlanta Fed President Bostic spoke in favor of pausing Fed rate hikes, stating, “I think we will reach the 2% target level without having to do anything else.” On the other hand, San Francisco Fed President Daly said that if inflation continues to move sideways and the labor market and GDP growth remain steady or strong, it will probably be necessary to raise rates again. Currently, markets are betting on a 10% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on December 12-13 and a 24% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the January 30-31, 2024 FOMC meeting.

In the US, the risk of a government shutdown is back on the table. If lawmakers in Washington fail to pass measures by Friday to at least temporarily fund the federal government’s operations, there is a threat of a shutdown. On Saturday, House Speaker Mike Johnson unveiled a Republican temporary funding measure aimed at averting a partial shutdown, but members of both parties quickly criticized the unorthodox plan. The new controversy could reignite concerns about the management of the world’s largest economy.

According to FactSet, the current earnings reporting season has been much better than analysts expected and is likely to show the first earnings-per-share growth in a year for companies in the S&P 500.

The University of Michigan’s US Consumer Sentiment Index for November fell by 3.4 to a 6-month low of 60.4, weaker than expectations of 63.7. The University of Michigan’s US Inflation Expectations Index for November unexpectedly rose to a 7-month high of 4.4% from 4.2% in October, versus expectations of a decline to 4.0%. In addition, 5-10-year inflation expectations rose to a 12-year high of 3.2%.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down by 0.77% (+0.10% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.96% (-0.30% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.36% (+0.81% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 1.28% (-0.77% for the week).

Friday’s comments from ECB President Lagarde indicate that she favors a pause in ECB rate hikes. Lagarde stated that keeping the deposit rate at the current level of 4% should be sufficient to contain inflation. There is a growing possibility that the ECB has peaked on rates, just like the US Fed.

UK GDP unexpectedly beat forecasts on most indicators. Over the last month, the economy grew by 0.2% (forecast 0.0%). However, the overall picture shows the economy is still depressed, with the 3-month average hitting annual lows and near negative territory.

Oil prices rose about 2% on Friday as Iraq voiced support for OPEC+ oil production cuts ahead of a meeting in two weeks on November 26. Amid weak economic data from China, the US, and the UK last week, concerns about the outlook for global demand offset worries about possible production disruptions related to the Middle East conflict. Analysts believe OPEC+ could continue to cut supplies if prices continue to fall.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up by 0.36% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down by 0.04% over five trading days, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 3.97% for the week, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative by 0.02% for the week.

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping are due to meet this week on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit amid hopes for improved relations between the two largest economies.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,347.35 +67.89 (+1.56%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,283.10 +391.16 (+1.15%)

DAX (DE40)  15,234.39 −118.15 (−0.77%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,360.55 −95.12 (−1.28%)

USD Index  105.80 −0.11 (−0.10%)

News feed for 2023.11.13:
  • – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Biden – Xi meeting: Global markets will be cheered by better ties

By George Prior 

Despite low expectations for “a long list of outcomes,” global markets will welcome US President Joe Biden’s highly anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday in the San Francisco Bay Area.

This is the bullish assessment from Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory asset management and fintech organizations.

It comes ahead of the first meeting between the two world leaders in a year – and the first time Xi has been in the US since 2017 – as ties between the superpower rivals are at their most tense point in decades.

Of the meeting a senior Wite House official told reporters: “We’re not talking about a long list of outcomes or deliverables…The goals here really are about managing the competition, preventing the downside risk of conflict and ensuring channels of communication are open.”

Nigel Green comments: “This meeting is mostly about symbolism, rather than deliverables. But this high-stake symbolism is important for global markets.

“Improved diplomatic relations, clearing up misperceptions and circumnavigating surprises between the two economic powerhouses will contribute to enhanced market stability.

“The China-US trade tensions that have characterized recent years have often resulted in market fluctuations and increased uncertainty.”

Investors, sensitive to geopolitical risks, tend to react nervously to trade disputes and political tensions between major economies. “A more amicable relationship can only mitigate these risks, creating an environment where markets operate with greater predictability.”

Furthermore, a positive turn in China-US ties is likely to open new avenues for collaboration and economic partnerships.

“Both countries possess immense economic influence, and their cooperation can drive global economic growth. Increased trade opportunities, reduced tariffs, and a more open economic dialogue will stimulate cross-border investments and facilitate the flow of capital between the two nations,” says the deVere CEO.

This collaborative approach should act as a catalyst for global financial markets, promoting economic interconnectedness and diversification.

The potential for eased trade tensions also bodes well for multinational corporations operating in both China and the United States.

Nigel Green notes: “A more harmonious relationship will translate into a friendlier business environment, with reduced regulatory uncertainties and fewer trade barriers. This, in turn, can positively impact corporate earnings, driving investor confidence and stock market performance on a global scale.”

Moreover, an improved relationship can contribute to the stabilisation of global supply chains. The trade tensions of recent years have prompted companies to reconsider their supply chain strategies, often leading to disruptions and increased costs.

A more cooperative stance between China and the United States would alleviate these concerns, providing a conducive environment for businesses to optimize their supply chains and operate more efficiently. This, in turn, can have a “cascading effect on the financial markets” as companies benefit from improved operational efficiency and cost-effectiveness.

The deVere CEO concludes: “As the world eagerly watches the diplomatic developments unfold between Biden and Xi this week, financial markets will be buoyed from signs of a more cooperative and connected global economic landscape.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Recovery conditions are forming for oil. Powell’s hawkish comments pressured the broad market

By JustMarkets

As of Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) decreased by 0.65%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.81%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.94% on Thursday.

US Fed Chairman Powell spoke at the IMF’s annual academic conference yesterday. In a prepared speech, Powell said that he and his colleagues are pleased that inflation is slowing but that they are not sure if they have done enough to support it and would not hesitate to tighten it if necessary. As a result, stocks came under pressure, and bond yields rose. Comments from some Fed officials indicate that they favor keeping interest rates at current levels. Atlanta FRB President Bostic said yesterday that the Fed will maintain restrictive measures until it is confident that inflation will fall to 2%.

US weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 3,000 to 217,000, matching expectations of 218,000.

Tesla (TSLA) shares fell more than 3% yesterday, topping the list of losers on the Nasdaq 100 (US100) after HSBC initiated coverage of the company’s stock with a “downgrade” recommendation and a price target of $146. Walt Disney (DIS) is up more than 6%, leading the Dow Jones Industrials (US30) higher after the company reported 150.2 million Disney+ subscribers in Q4, above the consensus forecast of 147.07 million subscribers.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.81%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 1.13%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 1.31%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 0.73%.

ECB Governing Council representative Villeroy de Gallo said that the inflation rate in the Eurozone has fallen three times over the year and, despite some volatility, the trend is clearly downward, so the ECB stops raising interest rates unless it has to face additional shocks. For his part, ECB Vice President Gindos said that talk of ECB interest rate cuts in the coming months is clearly premature, citing risks to the inflation outlook.

The likelihood that Saudi Arabia will extend its unilateral 1 million bpd production cut until the first quarter of 2024 is increasing by the day. Given renewed market concerns about Chinese demand and the broader macro outlook, oil prices are likely to recover in the coming trading sessions.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped by 1.49% on Thursday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.05%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down by 0.33% on the day and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.28%.

In its quarterly Monetary Policy Statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said that at its November meeting this week, the Board discussed keeping rates unchanged but decided that an increase was necessary to ensure inflation slowed. Earlier this week, the RBA ended a four-month pause by raising the money rate by a quarter point to a 12-year high of 4.35%. Whether further monetary tightening will be needed to ensure that the inflation target is achieved within a reasonable timeframe will depend on the data and the evolving risk assessment. Economists believe the RBA has peaked and will not raise rates again.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,347.35 −35.43 (−0.81%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,891.94 −220.33 (−0.65%)

DAX (DE40)  15,352.54 +122.94 (+0.81%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,455.67 +53.95 (+0.73%)

USD Index  105.91 +0.32 (+0.30%)

News feed for 2023.11.10:
  • – Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

China is once again facing disinflation problems. BoE head pointed to the bank’s “dovish” stance

By JustMarkets

As of Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.12%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.10%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.08%. The broader market fluctuated on Wednesday amid mixed corporate news.

The US economic news on Wednesday was favorable for the dollar as wholesale sales for September rose by 2.2% m/m, which exceeded expectations of 0.9% and was the largest increase in 20 months. Meanwhile, the MBA weekly US Mortgage Applications rose by 2.5% week-over-week

On Thursday, markets are expecting Fed Chairman Powell’s comments during a conference call on monetary policy issues. On Wednesday, Powell did not comment on the economy or interest rates while delivering opening remarks at the Fed’s Research and Statistics Division Centennial Conference. Currently, markets are factoring in a 10% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on December 12-13 and an 18% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the January 30-31, 2024 FOMC meeting.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) added 0.51%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.69%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.52%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.11%.

The ECB’s monthly survey of consumer inflation expectations showed that 1-year Eurozone inflation expectations rose to a 5-month high of 4.0% in September from 3.5% in August, but 3-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 2.5%. Eurozone retail sales for September fell by 0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.2% m/m. ECB Governing Council representative Kazaks said yesterday that the ECB cannot rule out the possibility that further rate hikes may be needed.

Key messages from the Bank of England (BoE) Governor’s speech yesterday:

  • It is really too early to talk about cutting rates;
  • The main message is that we think policy should be restrictive for a long period of time, even though there are upside risks;
  • We think policy is restrictive now, and economic growth is very weak.

Crude oil prices Wednesday extended Tuesday’s sharp losses as crude oil (WTI) fell to a 3-month low. Weakening oil demand contributed to the sell-off amid recent economic news indicating weakness in China’s economy. Additionally, crude oil has been pressured by hawkish central bank comments that have curbed speculation that central banks are done raising interest rates. Tuesday afternoon’s weekly API report was negative for crude oil as it showed that US crude inventories rose by 11.9 million barrels last week. There was no weekly EIA inventory report on Wednesday due to a system update.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.33% on Wednesday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.28%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down by 0.58% for the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.26%.

In China, the latest data showed that both consumer and producer inflation fell in October, bringing the country into disinflation territory for the second time this year. The inflation data was released against a backdrop of disappointing trade data for October, with data released last week showing a steady decline in business activity in China during the month. The weak October data added to fears of a slowdown in China’s economic growth. However, more significant losses in Chinese equities were tempered by gains in real estate stocks, which rose amid reports that Beijing is considering additional measures to support the sector.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,382.78 +4.40 (+0.10%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,112.27 −40.33 (−0.12%)

DAX (DE40)  15,229.60 +76.96 (+0.51%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,401.72 −8.32 (−0.11%)

USD Index  105.54 −0.01 (−0.01%)

News feed for 2023.11.09:
  • – China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
  • – China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 19:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Weak economic data weakens energy demand. The Bank of England is thinking about cutting rates next year

By JustMarkets

As of Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.17%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.28%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.90% on Tuesday. The S&P 500 (US500 and NASDAQ (US100) indices hit 3-week highs yesterday, while the Dow Jones (US30) updated a one-month-high. But by the end of the trading day, the indices began to lose upward momentum amid hawkish FOMC comments.

The comments from Fed officials on Tuesday eased speculation that the Fed had stopped raising interest rates and proved bullish for the dollar. Minneapolis FRB President Kashkari said that while there has been encouraging inflation data for three months, it is not enough, and “we need to let the data continue to come to us to see if we have really put the inflation genie back in the bottle.” Chicago Fed President Goolsbee also said that the top priority for policymakers is to get inflation back to target, and the Fed does not want to commit to interest rate decisions in advance.

The latest economic data showed the US trade deficit for September widened to $61.5 billion from $58.7 billion in August, exceeding expectations of $59.8 billion.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.11%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.39%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.12%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.10%.

German industrial production for September fell by 1.4% m/m, which was stronger than expectations of 0.1% m/m. The S&P German Construction PMI for October fell by 1.0 to 38.3, a record rate of contraction. The Eurozone’s Producer Price Index (displays the rate of inflation between factories) for September fell to 12.4% y/y, a record high since data collection began in 1982. All data is negative for the European currency.

Rapid wage growth in the Eurozone could keep inflation high for longer, and the European Central Bank should keep interest rates at or near record highs until next year to extinguish price pressures, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.

Bank of England Chief Economist Pill hinted that an interest rate cut could come by the middle of next year. Markets now expect a 0.75% rate cut next year.

The strengthening of the US dollar on Tuesday had a negative impact on energy prices. In addition, weakening demand for oil led to a sell-off in the commodity after Chinese export shipments fell more than expected in October. As a result, crude oil (WTI) fell to a 3-month low, and gasoline fell to a 4-week low. However, investors should not forget that OPEC+ countries have extended production cuts until the end of the year and are likely to extend these quotas for the next year, so traders should not expect a strong drop in oil prices.

Asian markets were mostly declining yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 1.34% on Tuesday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.66%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 1.65% for the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative by 0.29% for Tuesday.

Chinese regulators held a symposium with several major property developers, including China Vanke Co Ltd, Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd, and Longfor Properties Co Ltd, to assess their financial situation amid a prolonged slump in the real estate market. The news boosted hopes that the government would provide additional support for the weakened real estate sector, which has faced a series of high-profile defaults in recent years. However, sentiment towards China is still intact after weak trade balance data for October. The focus will now turn to China’s inflation data for the month, due for release on Thursday.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said Wednesday that the central bank doesn’t necessarily have to wait for inflation-adjusted wage growth to turn positive before ending loose monetary policy. Ueda said the passive effect of rising import prices should fade, and wages and inflation need to rise in tandem for the BOJ to consider an exit from ultra-loose policy. Analysts expect Japan’s inflation-adjusted real wages, which fell for the 18th consecutive month in September, to continue falling next year as wage growth fails to catch up with persistent price increases.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,378.38 +12.40 (+0.28%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,152.60 +56.74 (+0.17%)

DAX (DE40)  15,152.64 +16.67  (+0.11%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,410.04 −7.72 (−0.10%)

USD Index  105.51 +0.29 (+0.28%)

News feed for 2023.11.08:
  • – New Zealand Inflation Expectations (q/q) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 16:15 (GMT+2);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The RBA expectedly raised the rate by 0.25%. OPEC+ countries will maintain crude oil production cuts until the end of the year

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.10%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.18%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.30% on Monday. Stocks rose on Monday on the back of positive developments from last Friday, when a weaker-than-expected October US jobs report and October ISM services report showed a slowing economy that could keep the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates and even start lowering them by the middle of next year.

On Monday, optimistic comments from Fed Vice Chair Brainard were favorable for stocks when she said the economy is performing exceptionally well and is near the point of sustained growth, with most forecasters dismissing the issue of recession. Currently, markets are pricing in a 10% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on December 12-13 and an 18% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the January 30-31, 2024 FOMC meeting.

Booking Holdings (BKNG) shares closed higher by more than 4% after D.A. Davidson upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy with a price target of $2,400. Airbnb (ABNB) shares were down more than 3% yesterday after Italy’s financial police confiscated €779 million ($835 million) from the company due to failure to pay a portion of taxes.

Growth in Canadian economic activity accelerated slightly in October, while a measure of prices fell to its lowest level in six months. The seasonally adjusted index rose to 53.4 from 53.1 in September. It was the third consecutive month the index exceeded the 50 threshold, indicating the sector is expanding.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.35%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.48% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.56% and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed around its opening price.

According to a survey released on Tuesday, the pace of growth in UK consumer spending last month was the slowest in more than a year, reflecting concerns about the cost of living in the run-up to Christmas. The Bank of England raised interest rates for 14 consecutive meetings until August this year. Last week, it said it planned to keep them at a 15-year high to keep inflation down, although it said the economy was stagnant and so far, the effect of the rate hikes had only been half felt.

Crude oil and gasoline prices closed moderately higher on Monday after Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed they would maintain crude production cuts through the end of the year. The 23-nation OPEC+ coalition will meet again on November 26 to review oil production policy for 2024.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped by 2.37% on Monday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.75%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 1.71% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.28% on Monday.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectedly to raise the interest rate by 0.25%. But the Australian dollar fell more than 0.8% as the rate hike was accompanied by softening language on the need for further increases. The RBA said in a statement that the recent rise in inflation is not material to an increase in the inflation outlook, with the impact of past rate hikes not yet fully reflected in the real economy, so there are reasons not to raise rates further.

Japanese household spending fell by 2.8% year-on-year in September, marking the seventh consecutive monthly decline, as households cut spending on food and other goods amid rising prices with real wages continuing to fall.

Chinese exports contracted more than expected in October amid deteriorating overseas demand, while an unexpected rise in imports caused China’s trade surplus to shrink to its lowest level in 17 months. The trade data showed continued headwinds for the Chinese economy, especially amid deteriorating economic conditions in China’s largest trading countries − Europe and the United States.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,365.98 +7.64 (+0.18%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,095.86 +34.54 (+0.10%)

DAX (DE40)  15,135.97 −53.28 (−0.35%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,417.76 +0.03 (+0.01%)

USD Index  105.29 +0.27 (+0.26%)

News feed for 2023.11.07:
  • – China Trade Balance (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 05:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Australia RBA Rate Statement at 05:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+2);
  • – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.