InvestMacro

By JustMarkets

At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.66% (+4.68% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up by 0.94% (+5.29% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.38% (+5.71% for the week) on Friday. All three indices closed in positive territory and hit their monthly highs. A weak US unemployment report supported speculation after Wednesday’s FOMC meeting that the Fed’s rate hiking regime is over.

The US unemployment report released on Friday showed weaker-than-expected labor market dynamics. The US employment number for October rose by 150,000, which was weaker than expectations of 180,000. In addition, the September data was revised downward to 297,000 from 336,000. October’s US unemployment rate rose by 0.1 points to a nearly 2-year high of 3.9%, indicating a slight weakening of the labor market versus expectations of an unchanged 3.8%. A positive for inflation was the 0.2% m/m increase in average hourly earnings in October, which was slightly weaker than expectations of 0.3%.

Friday’s ISM Services Business Activity Index for October fell by 1.8 points to 51.8, which was weaker than expectations of a decline to 53.0. At the same time, the final October S&P US services PMI was revised downward. The PMI reports indicate some slowdown in the US services sector.

Equity markets in Europe traded without any unified dynamics on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.30% (+2.83% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.19% (+3.23% for the week) on Friday, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.36% (+3.78% for the week), the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.39% (+1.73% for the week).

The Eurozone unemployment rate for September rose by 0.1 points to 6.5%, indicating a slightly weaker labor market compared to expectations of an unchanged unemployment rate of 6.4%. Germany’s trade report showed weakness in the economy, with exports for September down by 2.4% m/m and imports down by 1.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of 2.0% and 0.1%, respectively.

Tensions continue to rise not only in the Middle East but globally as the conflict between Israel and the Gaza Strip continues to intensify. As each side continues to call on their potential allies, the likelihood of a larger conflict could increase. If this happens, we could begin to see sell-offs in stock markets and rising oil and gold prices.

Asian markets were predominantly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 4.02% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 1.35% over five trading days, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week up by 2.55%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week positive by 3.12%. Most Asian indices rose sharply on Monday as weaker-than-expected US jobs data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve has ended its rate hike cycle, while attention also shifted to upcoming economic data from China.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is preparing to raise interest rates at its meeting on Tuesday, following signs of renewed inflation and some hawkish comments from central bank officials. The RBA is expected to raise its target money rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% as stronger-than-expected third-quarter inflation data released in October prompted a number of analysts to adjust their expectations. Australian banks ANZ and Westpac pushed back their November rate hike forecasts from December, while UBS and ING also expect a rate hike at the RBA’s November 7 meeting.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda said on Monday that the central bank needs to have more confidence that wages will continue to rise (rising wages lead to higher prices for services, which will fuel inflation), and as the economy remains strong, it is premature to think about an exit from accommodative policy.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,358.34 +40.56 (+0.94%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,061.32 +222.24 (+0.66%)

DAX (DE40)  15,189.25 +45.65 (+0.30%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,417.73 −28.80 (−0.39%)

USD Index  105.07 +0.05 (+0.05%)

• – Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• – Japan BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks at 06:10 (GMT+2);
• – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
• – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By ForexTime 

*Note: This report was written before the US NFP data was published*

• Euro could see volatility next week thanks to EU data dump ​​​​​​

• Powell remarks could trigger move in USD

• EURUSD bear flag waits for fresh spark on D1 charts

• Key levels of interest found at 1.0690, 1.0530 and 1.0450

Caution remains the name of the game as the key US jobs report this afternoon (Friday, 3rd November) approaches.

Even with the growing anticipation, some keen investors may be keeping tab on what’s to come in the week ahead:

Monday, 6th November

• EUR: Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI, Germany factory orders
• JPY: BoJ September meeting minutes
• GBP: BoE chief economic Huw Pill speech

Tuesday, 7th November 

• CNH: China trade, forex reserves
• AUD: RBA rate decision
• EUR: Eurozone PPI, Germany industrial production
• JPY: Japan household spending
• USD: US trade, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speech

Wednesday, 8th November

• EUR: Eurozone retail sales, Germany CPI
• GBP: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speech
• USD: US wholesale inventories, New York Fed President John Williams speech
• WSt30_m: Walt Disney earnings

Thursday, 9th November  

• CNH: China CPI, PPI, money supply, new yuan loans
• GBP: BOE chief economist Huw Pill speaks
• USD: US initial jobless claims, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech

Friday, 10th November

• JPY: Japan M2 money stock
• NZD: New Zealand PMI
• EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
• GBP: UK industrial production, GDP
• USD: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Fed speak

Our focus falls on none other than the world’s most traded currency, which is set to be influenced by numerous reports from Europe and the United States, along with speeches from Fed officials including Jerome Powell.

Before we discuss what to expect from the EURUSD next week, it is worth noting that the currency pair is under pressure with a bearish flag pattern in play on the daily charts.

A bearish flag is a candlestick chart pattern that signals the continuation of a downtrend once the technical bounce is finished.

A fresh fundamental spark could be required to trigger a significant technical move on the EURUSD. Here are 3 potential catalysts to keep an eye on in the week ahead:

1. EU data dump

The euro could see heightened volatility due to top-tier data from Europe in the first half of the week.

Concerns remain elevated over Europe’s outlook with economic growth contracting 0.1% in the third quarter of 2023. However, inflation has fallen to its lowest level in more than two years – strengthening the case for ECB doves and boosting expectations that the ECB will not raise rates further.

Investors will be paying close attention to some key data pieces ranging from Eurozone PMI’s, PPI and retail sales along German factory orders and industrial production among other significant releases from the region.

• The EURUSD could find itself under fresh selling pressure if overall economic data disappoints and boosts speculation around rate cuts in the first half of 2024.
• Euro bulls may draw support from strong economic data, especially if this supports expectations around rates remaining higher for longer

As of writing, traders are currently pricing in an 82% probability of a 25-basis point ECB cut by April 2024.

2. Powell remarks + US data

The Fed not only left interest rates unchanged at its November meeting but Powell also hinted that the central bank could be done with its most aggressive tightening cycle in 40 years.

Powell expressed optimism over the US economy but still warned that there was a long way to go on the inflation fight. Speeches from various Fed officials will be in sharp focus but on Thursday the spotlight shine on Powell as he participates in a panel on monetary policy challenges at the IMF’s annual research conference in Washington. It will be wise to keep an eye on US economic data which could influence monetary policy expectations.

• Should Fed officials strike a dovish tone and overall US data disappoint, this could strengthen the argument around the Fed being done with hikes – supporting the EURUSD as a result amid dollar weakness.
• If Powell along with Fed officials sounds more hawkish and US data beats forecasts, expectations could rise around one more Fed hike before the end of 2023, pulling the EURUSD lower as the dollar strengthens.

As of writing, traders are pricing in a 32% probability of a 25 basis point Fed hike by the end of 2023.

3. Technical forces: bear flag

A bear flag technical pattern could be in play on the daily charts with prices flirting around the 50-day SMA as of writing. Prices are trading below the 100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades below zero. Key resistance can be found at 1.0730 and 1.0690. Support may be identified at 1.0530 and 1.0450.

• Sustained weakness below 1.0730 may encourage prices to slip back towards 1.0530 before targeting the 1.0450 level.
• Should prices break above 1.0730, this may trigger a move towards the 200-day SMA around 1.0800.

According to Bloomberg’s FX model, there is a 74% chance that the EURUSD will trade between 1.0539 and 1.0768 range over the coming week.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.70%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.89%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive at 1.78% yesterday. All three indices hit two-week highs. Hopes that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again drove bond yields lower and supported stocks.

Thursday’s economic news out of the US was primarily dovish for Fed policy and bearish for the dollar. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose by 5,000 to 217,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 210,000. Nonfarm labor productivity rose by 4.7% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations of 4.3% and the highest in 3 years.

Apple (AAPL) posted its fourth consecutive loss on revenue of $89.5 billion, down 1% from the previous quarter. The company’s stock fell more than 3.5% on the report. Starbucks (SBUX) closed higher by more than 9% after reporting Q4 comparable sales growth of 8.0%, beating the consensus forecast of 6.31%. Qualcomm (QCOM) closed higher by more than 5% after reporting adjusted Q4 revenue of $8.67 billion. Moderna (MRNA) declined more than 6% and topped the Nasdaq 100 losers list after reporting a third-quarter loss per share of $9.53 after including $3.1 billion in redundancy costs and tax benefits. Airbnb (ABNB) closed down more than 3% after reporting Q4 revenue guidance of $2.13 billion to $2.17 billion, which was worse than expected.

Equity markets in Europe were mainly up yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 1.48%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) gained 1.85% yesterday, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 2.04%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive at 1.42%.

The number of unemployed in Germany for October rose by 30,000, exceeding expectations of 14,000, indicating a weakening labor market. The unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 5.8% in October, matching expectations and the highest rate in 2 years. Comments from ECB Governing Council spokesman Knott indicate that he favors a pause in ECB rate hikes.

On Thursday, the Bank of England (BOE) voted 6-3 to keep its key interest rate at 5.25%. It said the restrictive policy will likely be needed for an extended period to contain inflation. Bank of England Governor Bailey said policymakers are watching to see if further rate hikes will be required and that it is very early to think about cutting rates.

Swiss inflation remained at 1.7% y/y in October, matching the market consensus. The core rate rose to 1.5% y/y from 1.3%. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has ensured that inflation is within the 0%-2% target range. One of the reasons the SNB has been able to keep inflation below target is the strong Swiss franc, which has kept inflation from rising. However, the SNB has expressed concern that inflation could exceed the 2% ceiling as electricity, rent, and public transportation costs have increased.

The EIA natural gas inventories report released Thursday showed an increase of 79 Bcf, which was in line with the consensus forecast but above the 5-year average of 57 Bcf. As of October 27, natural gas inventories were up 7.9% y/y and 5.7% above the 5-year seasonal average, indicating ample natural gas reserves ahead of the winter months.

In the Middle East, Israeli soldiers entered Gaza City, completing the encirclement of the urban area that is home to the main forces of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, but now face a host of challenges in fighting in the dense urban environment.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.10% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.20%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.75% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended Thursday positive at 0.90%.

Major Australian banks, including ANZ, ING, and Macquarie, raised home loan interest rates in anticipation of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raising the cash rate by 25 basis points at its next meeting.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,317.78 +79.92 (+1.89%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,839.08 +564.50 (+1.70%)

DAX (DE40)  15,143.60 +220.33 (+1.48%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,446.53 +104.10 (+1.42%)

USD Index  106.14 −0.75 (−0.70%)

• – German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

At the close of the stock exchange on Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) index rose by 0.67%, and the S&P 500 (US500) index rose by 1.05%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive at 1.64% yesterday. The S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq 100 (US100) indices hit one-week highs, and the Dow Jones Industrials index hit a 10-day-high. Weaker-than-expected ADP employment and ISM manufacturing reports in the US lowered bond yields and boosted stocks. Meanwhile, stock indices continued to rise in the afternoon after the FOMC committee left the rate unchanged at 5.5%, and Fed Chair Powell said that the Fed may suspend the interest rate hike campaign indefinitely: “Given how far we have come, along with the uncertainties and risks we face, the FOMC is proceeding carefully.”

Currently, markets are pricing a 19% chance of a 25 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on December 12-13 and a 27% chance of a 25 bps rate hike at the January 30-31, 2024 FOMC meeting.

The latest economic data showed that the change in US employment numbers for October from ADP was positive 113,000, which was weaker than expectations of 150,000. The US Manufacturing Activity Index for October unexpectedly declined by 2.3 to 46.7, which was weaker than expected. JOLTS job openings in the US for September unexpectedly rose by 53,000 to a 4-month high of 9.553 million, stronger than expectations of a decline to 9.400 million.

Equity markets in Europe were mainly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.76%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) gained 0.68% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.51%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.28%.

The Bank of England will hold a monetary policy meeting today. Investors expect the Bank of England to keep rates at a 15-year high of 5.25%, with policymakers predicted to reiterate that rates should remain at current levels for an extended period of time despite growing signs of weakness in the economy. But it should not be forgotten that while inflation in the UK has fallen, it remains the highest among major economies and is difficult to contain. So, any hawkish remarks from the Governor of the Bank of England may give temporary support to the British currency.

Silver prices came under pressure yesterday amid weaker-than-expected news from China and the US on weaker demand for industrial metals following unexpected declines in China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI and US ISM manufacturing PMI for October.

Oil prices retreated from their best levels after the dollar index rose to a 4-week-high yesterday and on signs of weakness in manufacturing activity in China and the US. Crude oil inventories rose by 773,000 barrels, according to the EIA, less than expectations of 1.8 million barrels. Also, keep in mind that geopolitical risks are supporting oil prices due to fears that an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas could jeopardize oil supplies from the Middle East.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.41% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.84%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.06%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended Wednesday positive 0.85%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index added 1.2% on Thursday, extending gains for the third consecutive session after the Bank of Japan took a less hawkish stance earlier in the week than many expected. A rise in technology stocks helped Australia’s ASX 200 index (AU200) climb 1.3% despite the country’s September trade surplus data falling to a 2.5-year low.

New Zealand’s unemployment rate has been on the rise. Unemployment rose to 3.9% from 3.6% in the last quarter. The employment report showed growing spare capacity in the labor market as higher interest rates cool the economy. Aggressive rate tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has led to lower inflation, which fell to 5.6% in the third quarter. Inflation expectations are also falling, an encouraging sign that the RBNZ will seek to avoid a rate hike at its November meeting.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,237.86 +44.06 (+1.05%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,274.58 +221.71 (+0.67%)

DAX (DE40)  14,923.27 +112.93 (+0.76%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,342.43 +20.71 (+0.28%)

USD Index  106.63 −0.03 (−0.03%)

• – Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• – Hong Kong Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+2);
• – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
• – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
• – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – Norwegian Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
• – Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 19:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By George Prior 

The Federal Reserve will almost certainly hold interest rates steady for the second meeting in a row today at the highest level in some 22 years.

This would support expectations from deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, of a year-end rally in 2023.

It also means that most investors will need to revise their investment portfolios.

The analysis from Nigel Green, deVere Group CEO and Founder, comes ahead of the US central bank’s Big Decision on interest rates at 2pm ET (7pm GMT).

He comments: “The markets will be buoyed by the Fed not raising rates as it means we’re nearer to the end of the most aggressive rate-hiking programme in generations.

“But the markets have already fully priced-in this Fed decision, so we don’t expect it to send stocks skyrocketing on this news alone.

“However, the Fed holding rates steady again does add fuel to our expectation of a 2023 year-end rally.”

On Tuesday, the deVere CEO told the media: “History shows that November is the second-best month of the year for markets, behind April.

“This November could be even more positive as some markets are currently in correction territory – falling by more than 10% – and so a swing to the upside will be more pronounced.

“Over 72 years there have been 34 market declines. Only 12 of these have turned into bear markets. When does a recovery typically happen? 96 days after the start of the correction. We’re now around day 90.

“If all this data holds up, we’re about to see a year-end rally, which investors would not want to miss out on.”

While the Fed may be done hiking, there is a wider expectation that they’re going to keep rates higher for longer.

As interest rates are anticipated to remain elevated for an extended period and a year-end market rally is expected, investors must adopt a prudent approach to navigate these evolving financial landscapes.

To thrive in such conditions, Nigel Green suggests five important strategies that investors should consider.

“First, maintain a well-diversified portfolio that spreads risk across various asset classes. Diversification can help mitigate the impact of rising interest rates and market volatility.

“Second, evaluate your risk tolerance and investment goals. Ensure that your portfolio aligns with your financial objectives, and consider adjusting your asset allocation accordingly.

“Third, given the potential for higher market volatility, active management can be valuable. Reassess and rebalance your portfolio as needed to capitalise on opportunities and manage risks effectively.

“Four, explore fixed-income investments that are less sensitive to interest rate changes, such as short-term bonds, structured notes or inflation-protected securities.

“Five, keep a long-term perspective and avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term market movements. Stick to your investment strategy and avoid trying to time the market.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.38%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.65%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.48% yesterday. Stocks closed moderately higher on Tuesday amid mostly better-than-expected corporate earnings results.

The US economic news released Tuesday was mixed for the dollar and stock indices. On the positive side, the third quarter labor cost index rose by 1.1%, stronger than expectations of an additional 1.0%. In addition, the S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index for August rose by 2.16% year-over-year, which was stronger than expectations of 1.75% and was the most significant increase in 7 months. On the bearish side, the Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Index for October fell by 1.7 to a 5-month low of 102.6. In addition, the October Chicago PMI unexpectedly declined by 0.1 to 44.0, weaker than expectations of a rise to 45.0.

In the Middle East, Iran’s foreign minister on Tuesday called for utilizing the “last political opportunities” to end the war between Israel and Hamas. It was also reported that Yemen fired a ballistic missile at Israel, which was successfully shot down.

Equity markets in Europe traded yesterday without a single dynamic. German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.64%, French CAC 40 (FR40) yesterday rose by 0.89%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.02%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.08%.

October Eurozone CPI declined to 2.9% y/y from 4.3%, weaker than expectations of 3.1% y/y and the lowest increase in 2 years. Core CPI slipped to 4.2% y/y in October from 4.5% y/y in September, which matched expectations and was the lowest reading in 15 months. Eurozone GDP declined 0.1% q/q in Q3 but grew 0.1% y/y, weaker than expected. German retail sales for September unexpectedly fell by 0.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.5% m/m. Stournaras of the ECB Governing Council said that he believes interest rates in the Eurozone have peaked. He would consider cutting interest rates if inflation falls consistently and steadily below the 3% threshold in mid-2024.

Oil prices initially went up on Tuesday on fears that the conflict between Israel and Hamas could escalate on reports that Israel is shelling militant targets in Lebanon, which has the potential to widen the conflict. However, Tuesday’s global economic news was weaker than expected and negatively impacted energy demand and crude oil prices.

Asian markets traded without any unified dynamics. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.53% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.07%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.69% on the day, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.12% on Tuesday.

Recent Chinese manufacturing activity data indicates that Beijing’s stimulus measures have had a limited economic impact. Additional government spending will likely be required to lift the Chinese economy from a three-year slump. Due to this, investors are largely wary of investing in Chinese markets.

Japanese economic news released on Tuesday was mixed for the yen. On the bearish side, industrial production for September rose by 0.2% m/m, which was weaker than expectations of 2.5% m/m. Retail Sales for September unexpectedly declined by 0.1% m/m, which was weaker than expectations of 0.2% m/m. In contrast, Consumer Confidence for October unexpectedly rose by 0.5 to 35.7, stronger than expectations of a decline to 35.0.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,193.80 +26.98 (+0.65%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,052.87 +123.91 (+0.38%)

DAX (DE40)  14,810.34 +93.80 (+0.64%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,321.72 −5.67 (−0.08%)

USD Index  106.74 +0.62 (+0.58%)

• – New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 00:00 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
• – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
• – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 14:15 (GMT+2);
• – Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 14:40 (GMT+2);
• – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
• – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Statement at 20:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 20:00 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Press Conference at 20:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.58%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.58%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.16% yesterday. Stock indices rose moderately on Monday on the back of a falling dollar, as well as positive corporate news and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals. Pressure on the US dollar is also being exerted by the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will leave its monetary policy unchanged at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Markets are betting a zero probability that the FOMC will raise rates at its next meeting and an 18% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at its next meeting on December 12-13.

Western Digital shares are up more than 7% after the company reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and announced its intention to split into two public companies. Additionally, shares of Amazon.com (AMZN) closed higher by more than 3%, adding to last Friday’s 7% gain after Guotai Junan Securities raised the company’s price target to $162.80 per share.

The Dallas Fed’s US manufacturing activity index for October unexpectedly fell by 1.1 to minus 19.2, weaker than expectations for a rise to minus 16.0.

Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem urged elected officials to consider the inflationary implications of their spending plans as the Central Bank tries to cool price pressures. Macklem cited slower economic growth and higher interest rates as factors affecting future government budgets. Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland will deliver a financial report in the coming weeks.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.20%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.44% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.07%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 0.50%.

The Eurozone Economic Confidence Index for October fell by 0.1 to 93.3, which was better than expectations of 93.0. German Q3 GDP declined by 0.1% QoQ, stronger than expectations of 0.2% QoQ. The German Consumer Price Index (EU harmonized) for October declined from 4.3% to 3.0% y/y, better than expectations of 3.3% y/y and the lowest inflation rate in 2 years.

ECB Governing Council representative Kazimir said yesterday that forecasts for ECB interest rate cuts in the first half of next year are completely misplaced, and the ECB will have to stay on the cusp over the next few quarters. In contrast, his counterpart, Simkus, believes that the ECB will not raise interest rates at its December meeting, saying that current restrictive levels are sufficient.

WTI crude oil prices fell more than 3% yesterday as Israeli military action in the Gaza Strip proceeded at a more cautious pace than expected, easing fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East. In addition, Iran’s foreign ministry said on Monday that Hamas has pledged to release non-Israeli hostages as soon as possible.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.95%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.35%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 0.04% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.79% on Monday. On Tuesday, Asian stocks fell to near one-year lows amid disappointing Chinese manufacturing activity data, while the yen fell to 150 per dollar after the Bank of Japan changed its policy to control bond yields.

At its meeting, the BoJ left the short-term interest rate at minus 0.1% and said it would use the top end of the YCC’s 1% range as the reference limit for its market operations. The move reflects a slight shift to tight YCC policy and may signal some greater flexibility. The BoJ also said it will continue asset purchases and quantitative easing to stimulate the economy, citing continued uncertainty over rising inflation and deteriorating global economic conditions. The statement indicated that the Bank is trying to maintain a balance between supporting the Japanese economy, curbing further weakening of the yen, and simultaneously combating rising inflation. The BoJ also said it expects core consumer inflation to remain above the 2% target through fiscal 2024 and that risks to prices are skewed upward in fiscal 2023.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,166.82 +49.45 (+1.20%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,928.96 +511.37 (+1.58%)

DAX (DE40)  14,716.54 +29.13 (+0.20%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,291.28 +36.11 (+0.50%)

USD Index  106.14 −0.42 (−0.40%)

• – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
• – China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
• – China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
• – Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 04:30 (GMT+2);
• – Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 04:30 (GMT+2);
• – Japan BoJ Press Conference at 08:30 (GMT+2);
• – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – Canada GDP (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
• – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
• – New Zealand Unemployment Rate at 23:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By George Prior

Global financial markets are likely to rally in November and December, predicts the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organisations.

The bullish prediction from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes despite stock market corrections and weak investor sentiment.

He says: “History shows that November is the second-best month of the year for markets, behind April.

“This November could be even more positive as some markets are currently in correction territory – falling by more than 10% – and so a swing to the upside will be more pronounced.”

The deVere CEO continues: “Over 72 years there have been 34 market declines. Only 12 of these have turned into bear markets. When does a recovery typically happen? 96 days after the start of the correction. We’re now around day 90.

“If all this data holds up, we’re about to see a year-end rally, which investors would not want to miss out on.”

In addition, Nigel Green says that he expects the Federal Reserve will leave US interest rates unchanged this week.

“Investors will be watching this carefully, but the central bank of the world’s largest economy is almost certainly going to hold rates steady on Wednesday, which will be bullish for stock markets.”

Should stock markets emerge from correction territory, investors should consider a few prudent strategies.

First and foremost, maintaining a diversified portfolio remains crucial, as it helps spread risk and minimise exposure to sector-specific fluctuations. Reassess your investment goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon to ensure your portfolio aligns with your financial objectives.

Sectors that could appeal to investors as markets recover include tech and renewable energy. These sectors have demonstrated resilience and potential for growth even during market downturns.

Additionally, consider allocating funds to undervalued industries that may benefit from economic rebounds, such as travel and leisure, as pent-up consumer demand surges.

Lastly, monitoring the broader economic and geopolitical landscape is vital for informed decision-making, as global events can significantly impact market dynamics. Diversification, research, and a strategic outlook are key as markets exit correction territory.

The deVere CEO concludes: “We expect a rally for the end of 2023. You should consider revising your investment mix to seize the potential opportunities in what we think will be a new phase.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.76%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.18%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative by 1.76%. Stock indices continued to fall yesterday due to weak reports from major technology companies. Shares of Meta Platforms (META) fell more than 5% after weak ad revenue. Meanwhile, shares of Alphabet (GOOG) fell another 2.6%, complementing Wednesday’s 9.28% drop amid a disappointing cloud computing revenue report. Amazon (AMZN) reported third-quarter results that beat Wall Street forecasts as growth in the company’s cloud business continues to stabilize. But the stock price was barely affected by the report.

Stocks also declined yesterday due to tensions in the Middle East following a report that Israel conducted a limited tank invasion of the Gaza Strip before withdrawing troops. Markets expect an all-out ground attack by Israel, which could lead to an expansion of the war to include Hezbollah.

The US economy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, with households and construction contributing significantly to growth. However, the unfavorable factors facing the economy and the household sector in particular are intensifying, so economists expect growth to slow to 1.5% in the last three months of the year. Also strong is the 4.7% rise in US durable goods orders for September, which is much stronger than expectations of rising by 1.9%. US weekly jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 210,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market compared to expectations for a rise to 207,000.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.08%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.38% on Thursday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.28%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.81%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) left key rates unchanged on Thursday, in line with market expectations: the deposit rate at 4.00% and the main refinancing rate at 4.50%. Markets had expected the ECB to suspend its rate hike regime on Thursday, given the weakness in the eurozone economy and the recent rise in European bond yields. There is only a 5% chance of an ECB rate hike at the December meeting, but markets are forecasting an ECB rate cut in 2024.

Natural gas prices rose on Thursday amid a bullish EIA report and forecasts of colder-than-normal weather for next week. Natural gas prices received support from global supply concerns after Chevron shut down a natural gas field in Israel over security concerns related to the conflict between Israel and Hamas. As a result of the supply cut, Egypt said it was reviewing plans to export LNG to Europe.

Asian markets were predominantly falling yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.14%, FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.63%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.24%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended Thursday negative by 0.61%. Uncertainty over the war between Israel and Hamas and rising yields led Asian indices lower this week, while anticipation of a series of central bank meetings next week also made investors largely risk-averse.

With the Bank of Japan conducting another FX intervention yesterday, markets expect the BoJ to consider a change in yield curve management policy next week with an adjustment to the outlook. The latest data showed that Tokyo’s inflation rose more than expected in October, indicating that inflation is picking up again in the country and could lead to a more hawkish bias from the BoJ at its meeting next Tuesday.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,137.23 −49.54 (−1.18%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,784.30 −251.63 (−0.76%)

DAX (DE40)  14,731.05 −161.13 (−1.08%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,354.57 −59.77 (−0.81%)

USD Index  106.65 +0.12 (+0.11%)

• – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
• – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
• – Australia Producer Price Index at 03:30 (GMT+3);
• – US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.