Archive for Economics & Fundamentals – Page 73

Venezuelan migrants are boosting economic growth in South America, says research

By Jose Caballero, International Institute for Management Development (IMD) 

Venezuela is engulfed in a political and economic crisis, which has forced over 6 million people – some 20% of the population – to flee the country since 2015. The mass exodus began when Venezuela’s economy collapsed, giving rise to rampant inflation, political turmoil and pervasive violence.

Over 80% of those who have left Venezuela have set up a new life in 17 countries across Latin America and the Caribbean. According to a recent report, these displaced migrants are having a positive effect on the economies of their host countries.

Between 2017 and 2030, migrant workers will boost the economies of their host countries by 0.10%–0.25% on average each year. The report, which was published by several leading international financial institutions and the UN Agency for Refugees, focuses on Venezuelan migrants but also covers Cubans and Salvadorans, among others.

The economic impact of migrants in Latin America is significant. But their integration into local job markets and society is poor. The economic benefits derived from migrants across Latin America could be even greater if they are given better access to jobs.

Boosting economic growth

Migration has clear economic benefits for local economies. It leads to an expansion of the workforce, thereby alleviating labour shortages and enhancing economic output.

Migrants bring a diverse range of skills and specialised knowledge to their host countries, which can improve the overall skill level of the local workforce. Their productive capabilities bridge skill gaps in local labour markets and heighten overall productivity.

Most migrant workers will also pay income tax, which increases government revenues. In Colombia, for instance, the income tax contribution of Venezuelan migrants in 2019 was approximately US$38.7 million (£30.1 million), equivalent to 0.01% of Colombia’s GDP.

And when migrants gain employment, they will spend their wages in the host country and create new demand in various other sectors. Greater demand leads to higher growth, which in turn attracts more investment and increases employment opportunities both for local people and migrants.

Underemployed

However, xenophobia and discrimination prevent many migrants from finding jobs in Latin America and integrating into society. According to the report, roughly 30% of the migrants residing in Chile, Colombia and Peru experience discrimination because of their nationality.

Thus, many migrants are forced to take jobs within the informal sector. Over 50% of migrants in Latin America work informally compared to 44.5% of locals.

Migrant workers also often earn lower wages than their local counterparts. In Colombia, the average monthly salary of locals with post-secondary school education is US$1,140. Venezuelan migrants with the same level of education earn just US$644 per month.

Despite this, immigrants still outperform the native-born population in their labour force participation and employment rates. Yet many of the migrants who are in formal employment are overqualified for their roles. In Chile, for instance, 34% of highly educated locals are overqualified for their jobs, compared to over 60% of migrants.

Migrants are often mistakenly assumed to be exclusively low-skilled workers. But the Venezuelan migrant crisis has seen many highly skilled people flee the country too. For example, 65% of the Venezuelans living in Chile and 48% residing in Ecuador have post-secondary school education.

However, most Venezuelans have not officially validated their academic credentials in their host countries. In fact, only 10% of those residing in Chile have completed the certification process.

Many migrants are unaware of the process so lack sufficient documentation about their qualifications. And the complexity of the process also demands investment that many migrants may not have the resources to cover.

To further enhance productivity in Latin America, it is essential to integrate migrant workers into professions that allow them to use their skills.

Access to services

Several other factors hinder the integration of migrants into society across Latin America. The report indicates that migrant workers have significantly lower access to health insurance relative to the native-born population. In Colombia, for example, 96% of local workers have access to health insurance, compared to just 40% of migrants.

Similarly, there are often barriers limiting access to education for migrants. Foreign-born residents and their family members have the right to access public primary and secondary education in the majority of South American countries. But school attendance rates are lower among displaced children than among native children, while the propensity for dropping out of school early appears to be significantly higher among migrant children.

Some people argue that immigration comes with costs, such as the perceived notion that migrants deprive locals of jobs. Nevertheless, the contribution of migrants to Latin American economies underscores the potential benefits. Improving their access to labour markets is thus a crucial tool for fostering long-term growth in Latin American economies.The Conversation

About the Author:

Jose Caballero, Senior Economist, IMD World Competitiveness Center, International Institute for Management Development (IMD)

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Nigeria: botched economic reforms plunge the country into crisis

By Chisom Ubabukoh, O.P. Jindal Global University and Kunal Sen, United Nations University 

Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, is facing an economic crisis. From a botched currency redesign to the removal of fuel subsidies and a currency float, the nation has been plunged into spiralling inflation and a currency crisis with far-reaching consequences. The question now is: how long before the inferno consumes everything?

On October 26, 2022, the Central Bank of Nigeria announced a bold move – that it had redesigned the country’s highest denomination notes (₦200, ₦500 and ₦1000) and would be removing all old notes from circulation. People were given a deadline of January 31, 2023 (a couple of weeks before a national election) to make this exchange, or all of the old notes would cease to be valid legal tender.

This initiative ostensibly aimed to curb counterfeiting, encourage cashless transactions, and limit the buying of votes during the elections. But, while the intention may have been sound, the execution proved disastrous.

Short deadlines, limited availability of new notes, and inadequate communication created widespread panic. It led to long queues at banks, frustration among citizens, and a thriving black market for the new notes.

The confusion surrounding the currency redesign had an unintended consequence: the beginnings of a loss of confidence in the naira. People began to look to other mediums as a store of value and as a medium of exchange. The obvious choices were foreign currency like the US dollar and the British pound, as well as more stable cryptocurrencies like Tether’s USDT.

The currency redesign was criticised at the time by the then-presidential candidate of the ruling party, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who saw it as a move to derail his presidential campaign. However, Tinubu won the contested election and, once in power, set out to reshape the economy immediately.

In his inaugural address in May 2023, Tinubu announced that the “fuel subsidy is gone”, referring to the government’s longstanding subsidised petrol policy that ensured Nigerians enjoyed some of the lowest petrol prices in the world. Over the coming days, he would also announce the reversal of the currency redesign policy and the floating of the Nigerian naira on the foreign exchange market.

Fuelling the flames

Other underlying economic conditions around the time of Tinubu’s inauguration included a large amount of foreign debt, dwindling foreign reserves and global economic headwinds. When the removal of the fuel subsidy was announced, it was met with a mix of surprise and elation by many Nigerians, and in particular by international donor agencies like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, who had long been advocating for the removal.

But this was all before the effects began to bite. And bite hard they did. The price of Premium Motor Spirit (also known as gasoline or petrol), which used to retail for ₦189 (US$0.12) per litre, increased by 196% practically overnight and began to retail for ₦557 per litre.

One challenge with developing economies like Nigeria is that a rise in fuel price tends to cause the price of everything else to rise. Many industries, particularly those in manufacturing and agriculture, tend to rely heavily on fuel for powering machinery and equipment due to the poor supply of grid electricity nationwide.

Many Nigerian households were significantly affected by the increased prices. But they saw an opportunity in that the savings from the fuel subsidy regime would be redistributed to improve education, healthcare provision and the general welfare of the people, as was promised during the electioneering. The regime cost the country an estimated ₦400 billion a month at its height, after all.

Enter currency devaluation

Then, on June 14, 2023, the Tinubu government ended the policy of pegging the naira to the US dollar, allowing it to float and find its true market value based on supply and demand. The idea was to stop corruption and reduce arbitrage opportunities due to the difference between official and black-market foreign exchange prices.

Currency arbitrage happens when people buy a currency at the lower official exchange rate and immediately sell it at the higher black market rate for a profit. This practice often occurs where there are strict currency controls and black markets offer a truer reflection of a currency’s value based on supply and demand.

However, this was one policy change too many. The naira lost a staggering 25% of its value in one day, and the cascading effects now push the country to the brink.

Nigeria depends heavily on imported commodities, including essential goods like food, fuel and medicine. So the policy escalated the inflationary crisis, pushing inflation to almost 30% (the major driver being food inflation, which reached 35.4%).

Imports in general have become significantly more expensive, and Nigerians are finding their purchasing power being eroded. Wages in Nigeria are pretty fixed. The current minimum wage in the country is ₦30,000 per month and the average monthly income is ₦71,185.

Businesses are also feeling the pinch, facing difficulties accessing the foreign exchange critical for importing raw materials and equipment.

Pheonix or ash?

The Central Bank of Nigeria has implemented measures to counter the crisis. It recently raised interest rates from 18.75% to 22.75% and is selling US dollars through auctions.

Recovery is a possibility and there are already signs of appreciation in the currency. The naira appreciated by 6.89% a day after interest rates were raised. But it will be a long, hard road.

These strategies often come with trade-offs. Higher interest rates can stifle already struggling economic growth, while currency interventions might deplete already strained reserves of foreign currency.

The bottom line is that if the current cost of living crisis continues, civil unrest is likely. Should this happen, who knows what – if anything – will be left behind when the flames are done.The Conversation

About the Author:

Chisom Ubabukoh, Assistant Professor of Economics, O.P. Jindal Global University and Kunal Sen, Professor and Director, World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), United Nations University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Natural gas prices are falling again. Chinese indices are growing amid support from the Central Bank

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.12% at Monday’s stock market close. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.11%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.41%. Stocks traded slightly lower on Monday amid rising 10-year T-note yields and caution ahead of Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index report. On an annualized basis, overall inflation is expected to fall to 3.1% from 3.2%. Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) will fall from 3.9% to 3.8% y/y. In monthly terms, inflationary pressures are expected to rise by 0.3%. If the data comes out in line with consensus, it would indicate that underlying inflationary trends are not intensifying. However, a stronger-than-expected CPI report would dampen hopes of a near-term Fed rate cut, which could put additional pressure on the indices.

Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) are down 1.98% on Monday, adding to last Friday’s 5.47% selloff. Nvidia shares suffered profit-taking last Friday after initially hitting a record high and rising more than 17% over the previous six sessions. Boeing (BA) is down 3.0% after news that the US Department of Justice has opened a criminal investigation into the recent airborne door explosion on an Alaskan Airlines flight. Moderna (MRNA) was Monday’s best-performing stock of the NASDAQ benchmark (US100), adding 8.69%. The biotech company rose following news that it is partnering with Merck to begin a mid-stage study to test its experimental cancer vaccine on patients with skin cancer.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) gained more than 4% on Monday and set a new record high, adding to last week’s 9.3% rally. Cryptocurrencies continue to rise because of the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s recent decision to allow spot bitcoin ETFs. However, shares of Coinbase (COIN) are down 0.93% on Monday, giving up an early rally of more than 4%.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.38%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.11%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.19%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.12%.

Shares of Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank closed 7.4% lower amid concerns over possible US sanctions over its relationship with Russia.

WTI crude oil prices climbed above $78 a barrel on Tuesday, recovering some of the losses of recent sessions. This week, markets await monthly reports from OPEC, the IEA, and the US EIA to assess the outlook for global demand. Investors continue to weigh conflicting supply and demand factors, as OPEC+ production cuts and tensions in the Middle East are offset by rising non-OPEC supply and signs of weak demand from major oil importer China. Data released last week showed that China’s oil imports fell about 5.7% to 10.8 million bpd in the first two months of the year, down from 11.44 million bpd in December.

The US natural gas price fell below $1.77 per Mmbbl to a two-week low, driven by reduced gas supplies to LNG export facilities and expectations of weaker demand due to milder weather in the next two weeks. Freeport LNG saw a nearly 50 percent drop in raw gas receipts last week due to the shutdown of one of its three processing lines. On the other hand, energy companies such as EQT and Chesapeake Energy cut gas production last month due to lower gas prices in February. Meanwhile, according to the latest EIA data, gas inventories as of March 1 are about 30.9% above normal levels.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 2.19% on the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 1.78%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.43% on Monday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.82%.

Hong Kong stocks climbed 1.2% in Tuesday morning trading to a two-week peak 16.735, maintaining bullish momentum for the third consecutive session amid gains in most sectors, especially healthcare, real estate, and consumer discretionary. Investors were scrambling to look for more catalysts after the close of China’s annual plenary meeting on Monday. During the event, Beijing set its 2024 GDP growth target at around 5.0% and planned to issue special bonds for large projects. At the same time, China’s central bank pledged to keep prices stable and said it may cut the refinancing rate further this year.

Japan’s business activity index for large manufacturing companies fell sharply to 6.7% in the first quarter of 2024 from 5.7% in the previous quarter, posting its lowest reading in a year and defying expectations for an improvement to 6.2%. The survey came amid official data that Japan’s economy fell into a technical recession in the fourth quarter of last year but was later revised to show a return to growth.

NAB Australia’s business confidence index fell to 0 in February 2024 from 1 in January. The reading was below the long-term average, with the retail sector among the top risk factors amid high borrowing costs and rising inflation.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,117.94 −5.75 (−0.11%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,769.66 +46.97 (+0.12%)

DAX (DE40) 17,746.27 −68.24 (−0.38%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,669.23 +9.49 (+0.12%)

USD Index 102.85 +0.14 (+0.13%)

Important events today:
  • – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The US labor market is cooling. ECB officials talked about cutting rates in the spring

By JustMarkets

At Friday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.18% (for the week -0.63%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.65% (for the week -0.14%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 1.16% (for the week -1.10%).

Although the US economy added 275K jobs, unemployment jumped to 3.9%, and wage growth slowed. The data indicates that the labor market has begun to cool down. Investors’ first reaction to the report was a rise in risk assets and a fall in the dollar. Market expectations for the first rate cut in June were confirmed and strengthened. But since this is not a new scenario and such a consensus has been priced in over the past month, the positivity was not enough for long, and investors sold off all the growth by the end of Friday. Current market conditions suggest index weakness will continue this week as investors take profits after the recent market rally. That said, this week promises to be even more volatile with the release of inflation data on Tuesday, March 12, and the quarterly derivatives expiration on Friday. Usually, these periods are when new trends are born, or old trends are reversed.

Also on Friday, shares of Nvidia (NVDA) fell more than 5%, its worst single-day performance since late May. But the stock ended the week up more than 6% amid a rally that has boosted its market value by more than $1 trillion this year.

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $70,000, helped by investor demand for new US spot bitcoin ETFs launched this year and expectations of lower global interest rates. Billions of dollars have poured into ETFs over the past few weeks. Also, let’s not forget the bitcoin “halving” that will take place in April 2024. In addition, the market has received support ahead of an expected upgrade to the Ethereum blockchain platform. Bitcoin’s previous boom in 2021 was followed by a “crypto winter” when bankruptcies and collapses of major cryptocurrency companies left millions of investors destitute, prompting regulators to step up regulation.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.16% (for the week +0.40%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.15% (for the week +1.18%) on Friday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) was down 0.13% (for the week +2.34%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.43% (for the week -0.30%).

Nagel, representative of the ECB Governing Council and President of the Bundesbank, said on Friday that an interest rate cut before the summer is increasingly likely. His colleague, ECB Governing Council representative Villeroy de Gallo, added that the first rate cut is very likely to come in the spring.

Oil prices closed 1% lower on Friday as markets remain wary of weak demand from China, even as the OPEC+ producer group extended supply cuts. Both benchmarks fell for the week, with Brent down 1.8% and WTI crude prices decreased by 2.5%. Currently, traders in the energy market are focusing on the timing of possible rate cuts by the Fed and ECB. Lower interest rates may increase demand for oil by accelerating economic growth.

Asian markets traded yesterday without any unified dynamics. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 1.28% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.28% for the 5 trading days, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 1.66% for the week, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.31%.

Japan’s economy returned to growth in the fourth quarter of 2023, averting a technical recession. Revised data showed that the country’s GDP grew by 0.4% and 0.1% year-on-year and 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, respectively, reversing preliminary contraction figures of 0.4% and 0.1% for the period. The latest data reinforced speculation that the Bank of Japan may start raising interest rates in April.

Chinese consumer prices rose by 0.7% year over year in February 2024, above market forecasts of 0.3%, and a turnaround from the sharpest 0.8% drop in 14 years in January. The latest result was the first consumer inflation since August last year, reaching the highest level in 11 months. But despite the rise in consumer prices, producer prices remain in deflation.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,123.69  −33.67 (−0.65%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,722.69 −68.66 −0.18%)

DAX (DE40) 17,814.51 −28.34 (−0.16%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,659.74 −32.72 (−0.43%)

USD Index 102.74 −0.08 (−0.08%)

Important events today:
  • – Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

ECB kept interest rates unchanged and delayed the first cut until the summer. Increased tension in the Middle East supports oil growth

By JustMarkets

At Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.34%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.03%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.51%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (US500) and NASDAQ (US100) indices rose to new record highs. Stocks rose Thursday on speculation that the Fed and ECB will begin cutting interest rates as early as June.

Speaking in front of the US Senate on Thursday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated the central bank could move closer to revising its restrictive policy if signs of moderate inflation prove sustainable. Recent data also showed that weekly US jobless claims were slightly higher than expected, and Q4 labor costs were revised downward. The US trade deficit for January widened to $67.4 billion, exceeding expectations of $63.3 billion and becoming the most significant deficit in 9 months, a negative for Q1 GDP. Investors are now awaiting Friday’s release of the much-anticipated February employment report for more information on the state of the US labor market.

The monthly Nonfarm payrolls labor market report will be released in the US today. The economy is expected to add 190,000 jobs in February after adding 353,000 in January. The unemployment rate will likely remain at 3.7%, and wage growth will slow from 4.5% to 4.3% year-over-year. If the data comes out in line with economists’ forecasts, it would indicate a slight cooling of the labor market, increasing the likelihood of an FOMC rate cut in April. The USD index will be under pressure in such a scenario, and risk assets (EUR, GBP, indices) will be supported. On the contrary, if the labor market data comes out better than expected, it will indicate the stability of the labor market and will postpone the first rate cut to a later date. In such a scenario, the dollar index could gain significant support, negatively impacting risk assets, indices, and gold.

Equity markets in Europe rallied yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose 0.71%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.77%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.20% on Thursday, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.17%.

The ECB, as expected, left the deposit rate unchanged at 4.5% and said that keeping borrowing costs at this level for “quite some time” would make a “significant contribution” to bringing consumer price growth back to the 2% target. The ECB lowered its 2024 eurozone GDP forecast to 0.6% from its December forecast of 0.8% and cut its 2024 eurozone inflation forecast to 2.3% from its December forecast of 2.7%. ECB President Lagarde said the eurozone economy remains weak, and wage growth is slowing. She added that consumer price growth is slowing, but she and her colleagues are not convinced that monetary easing can begin now. Swaps put the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 14% at the next meeting on April 11 and 93% at the meeting on June 6.

WTI crude prices rose above $79 a barrel on Friday, rebounding from the previous session’s losses, as heightened tensions in the Middle East continue to raise supply concerns and a Houthi attack on a commercial ship in the Red Sea this week left people dead.

Natural gas prices (XNG) fell sharply on Thursday amid ample US gas inventories. The EIA’s weekly natural gas inventory data showed a 40 billion cubic foot fall on Thursday, which was in line with expectations. However, it was far less than the five-year average for this time of year of 93 billion cubic feet. This kept US natural gas inventories at 30.9% above the five-year average.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 1.23%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.23%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 1.27% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.39% on Thursday.

Australia’s economy grew less than expected in the fourth quarter, supporting bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may start cutting rates this year. After weak GDP data, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia reiterated its forecast for an overall rate cut of 75 basis points this year.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,157.36  +52.60 (+1.03%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,791.35 +130.30 (+0.34%)

DAX (DE40)  17,842.85 +126.14 (+0.71%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,692.46 +13.15 (+0.17%)

USD Index 102.81 −0.56 (−0.54%)

Important events today:
  • – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged and maintained its dovish bias. The ECB will also keep all policy settings unchanged today

By JustMarkets

As of Wednesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.20%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.51%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.58%.

Fed Chairman Powell said in front of Congress that it would likely be appropriate to begin reducing borrowing costs at some point this year. Still, the committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until it has more confidence that inflation is moving steadily toward 2%.

The latest economic data showed that US job openings for January, according to JOLTS, fell by 26,000 to 8.863 million, indicating a slight cooling in the labor market. Investors now await the main Nonfarm Payrolls report tomorrow.

Palantir (PLTR) closed higher by more than 9% after receiving a $178.4 million contract from the US Army to develop and produce ten prototype ground stations that use artificial intelligence and machine learning to process target information from space, airborne and ground sensors. JD.com (JD) closed higher by more than 16% after reporting fourth-quarter sales of ¥306.1 billion ($42.6 billion), beating the consensus forecast of ¥300 billion, and initiating a $3 billion share repurchase program. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) closed higher by more than 3% amid strong demand for the company’s artificial intelligence-focused servers. Orders for these servers totaled $3 billion, up $500 million from the last quarter.

At its March meeting, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its overnight rate target at 5%. It pledged to continue normalizing the bank’s balance sheet as policymakers remain concerned about risks to the inflation outlook. The bank said it would maintain its quantitative tightening policy until a further weakening in core inflation. The latest data showed that CPI inflation eased to 2.9% in January, but on an annualized and three-month basis, core inflation was from 3% to 3.5%. Policymakers forecast inflation to remain near 3% in the first half of this year and then gradually decline. The bank also noted that GDP growth remains weak and below potential, and employment continues to grow more slowly amid signs that wage pressures may be easing. At the press conference, Bank Governor Macklem said it was too early to consider cutting rates as more time is needed to ensure inflation falls to the 2% target.

Equity markets in Europe rallied yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.10%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.28%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.79% on Wednesday, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.43%.

Eurozone retail sales for January rose by 0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.2% m/m. German trade data was better than expected: exports for January rose by 6.3% m/m, stronger than expectations of 1.5% m/m and the largest increase in 3-1.5 years. In addition, January imports rose by 3.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of 1.8% m/m and the largest increase in 11 months.

In his pre-election budget statement, Treasury Secretary Jeremy Hunt announced plans for permanent tax cuts in line with slowing inflation to stimulate economic growth and support public services. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicts that inflation will fall below the Bank of England’s target in the coming months and will also revise growth forecasts upwards.

The ECB’s monetary policy meeting will take place today. The ECB is forecast to leave the interest rate at 4.5%. In recent weeks, almost all ECB officials have unanimously argued that a premature rate cut could set a dangerous precedent for anchoring inflation. As a result, money markets have pushed back the likelihood of a first-rate cut from April to June. ECB chief Lagarde will likely reiterate that data remains lacking and refrain from giving clearer guidance on policy easing. Such a stance would be a moderately negative scenario for the euro.

WTI crude futures fell slightly to $79.1 a barrel on Wednesday, retreating from a four-month high after EIA data showed a smaller-than-expected rise in weekly US crude inventories. The US crude inventories rose by 1.367 million barrels last week, less than market expectations for a 2.116 million increase. On Tuesday, the API reported a modest 423,000 barrel rise in nationwide inventories.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.02%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.76%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 1.70% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.12% on Wednesday.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,104.76 +26.11 (+0.51%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,661.05 +75.86 (+0.20%)

DAX (DE40)  17,716.71 +18.31 (+0.10%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,679.31 +33.15 (+0.43%)

USD Index 103.37 −0.42 (−0.41%)

Important events today:
  • – Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – China Trade Balance (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+2);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+2);
  • – US Fed Chair Jerome Powell Testifies at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks (m/m) at 18:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Today, the focus of investors’ attention is directed to the Bank of Canada meeting, as well as Jerome Powell’s testifies before Congress

By JustMarkets

As of Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.04%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.02%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative at 1.65%. All 3 indices fell off the lows of the week. Weakness in technology stocks impacted the overall market as negative corporate news hamstrung technology stocks. Apple (AAPL) fell more than 2% after Counterpoint Research data showed that iPhone sales in China fell by 24% in the first six weeks of this year. Tesla (TSLA) closed down more than 4%, adding to Monday’s 7% loss after car shipments in China fell. In addition, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) quotes fell more than 1% after the US government blocked a plan to sell artificial intelligence chips to China.

Today, investors expect Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to address the US Congress, where he may give clues on the timing and extent of interest rate cuts this year.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) will meet today. The Bank of Canada is forecast to leave the interest rate unchanged at 5%. The highlight of the last Bank of Canada meeting in January was removing the phrase “The Bank remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed” from the accompanying statement. History is likely to repeat itself at the current meeting. Recent data showed that Canada’s Q4 GDP was stronger, retail sales were stronger, and the labor market was more robust than expected. The overall CPI fell to 2.9% from 3.4% in December (consensus was 3.3%), and core inflation slowed to 3.3% from 3.6% as expected. According to economists, with such data, the Bank of Canada will not launch its first rate cut until June. The probability of such a scenario is 70%. In the short term, the current meeting is unlikely to change the picture of CAD. Moreover, the decline in CPI may prompt the Bank of Canada to give a more optimistic forecast of disinflation and hint more clearly at the easing of monetary policy. Given the market’s rather conservative assessment of the Bank of Canada’s rate cut, the balance of risks is tilted in favor of a decline in the Canadian dollar.

After hitting an all-time high of $68,970 on Tuesday, bitcoin (BTC/USD) fell more than 7% amid profit-taking by funds. Bitcoin is up more than 63% this year and hit an all-time high on Tuesday thanks to steady inflows into 11 spot bitcoin ETFs that began trading in January and have attracted nearly $8 billion.

Equity markets in Europe were flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.10%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) decreased by 0.30%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) was up 0.47% on Tuesday, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.08%.

Silver prices pulled back from a 2-month high to close slightly lower after weaker-than-expected US economic reports on January factory orders. January ISM services were bearish for industrial metals demand.

WTI crude futures are holding near $78 a barrel on Wednesday after losing more than 2% over the past two sessions as weaker demand outweighed an extension of OPEC+ supply cuts. The latest data on factory orders and the US services sector showed signs of a slowdown in US economic activity, adding to fears of weaker energy demand from the world’s largest oil consumer. Analysts also noted a lack of strong stimulus signals from major oil importer China after the country set its growth target for this year at “around 5%”. Meanwhile, major oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and the UAE, extended voluntary oil production cuts for the second quarter.

Natural gas prices added to Monday’s gains on Tuesday and hit a 1-month high. Natural gas prices have risen since last week after EQT Corp, the largest US natural gas producer, said it would cut net production by 30-40 billion cubic feet through March in response to low prices.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.55%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 1.32%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.01% for the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.25% for Tuesday.

Hong Kong stocks jumped 1.3% in Wednesday morning trading, partially recovering from a sharp drop the previous day as investors awaited new supportive measures from Beijing following the announcement of China’s 2024 economic growth target of around 5.0% during the opening of the annual plenary session on Monday. The Chinese government also unveiled its annual military budget for this year, which will total 1.67 trillion yuan, up 7.2% from 2023. The Hang Seng Index attempted to break a two-week low, helped by widespread growth across all sectors, including basic materials, industrials, and technology.

The Australian economy grew 0.2% QoQ in 4Q 2023, below the upwardly revised 3Q figure and market estimates of 0.3%. This was the ninth consecutive period of quarterly growth but the slowest pace in the last 5 quarters.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,078.65 −52.30 (−1.02%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,585.19 −404.64 (−1.04%)

DAX (DE40)  17,698.40 −17.77 (−0.10%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,646.16 +5.83 (+0.08%)

USD Index 103.80 −0.03 (−0.03%)

Important events today:
  • – Australia GDP (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Spring Forecast Statement at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada BoC Rate Statement at 16:45 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Fed Chair Jerome Powell Testifies at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada BoC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Daly Speaks (m/m) at 19:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Is the United States overestimating China’s power?

By Dan Murphy, Harvard Kennedy School 

Which country is the greatest threat to the United States? The answer, according to a large proportion of Americans, is clear: China.

Half of all Americans responding to a mid-2023 survey from the Pew Research Center cited China as the biggest risk to the U.S., with Russia trailing in second with 17%. Other surveys, such as from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, show similar findings.

Senior figures in recent U.S. administrations appear to agree with this assessment. In 2020, John Ratcliffe, director of national intelligence under President Donald Trump, wrote that Beijing “intends to dominate the U.S. and the rest of the planet economically, militarily and technologically.”

The White House’s current National Defense Strategy is not so alarmist, referring to China as the U.S.’s “pacing challenge” – a reference that, in the words of Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, apparently means China has “the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the power to do so.”

As someone who has followed China for over a quarter century, I believe that many observers have overestimated the country’s apparent power. Recent challenges to China’s economy have led some people to reevaluate just how powerful China is. But hurdles to the growth of Chinese power extend far beyond the economic sector – and failing to acknowledge this reality may distort how policymakers and the public view the shift of geopolitical gravity in what was once called “the Chinese century.”

In overestimating China’s comprehensive power, the U.S. risks misallocating resources and attention, directing them toward a threat that is not as imminent as one might otherwise assume.

Let me be clear: I’m not suggesting that China is weak or about to collapse. Nor am I making an argument about China’s intentions. But rather, it is time to right-size the American understanding of the country’s comprehensive power. This process includes acknowledging both China’s tremendous accomplishments and its significant challenges. Doing so is, I believe, mission critical as the United States and China seek to put a floor underneath a badly damaged bilateral relationship.

Headline numbers

Why have so many people misjudged China’s power?

One key reason for this misconception is that from a distance, China does indeed appear to be an unstoppable juggernaut. The high-level numbers bedazzle observers: Beijing commands the world’s largest or second-largest economy depending on the type of measurement; it has a rapidly growing military budget and sky-high numbers of graduates in engineering and math; and oversees huge infrastructure projects – laying down nearly 20,000 miles of high-speed rail tracks in less than a dozen years and building bridges at record pace.

But these eye-catching metrics don’t tell a complete story. Look under the hood and you’ll see that China faces a raft of intractable difficulties.

The Chinese economy, which until recently was thought of as unstoppable, is beginning to falter due to deflation, a growing debt-to-gross domestic product ratio and the impact of a real estate crisis.

China’s other challenges

And it isn’t only China’s economy that has been overestimated.

While Beijing has put in considerable effort building its soft power and sending its leadership around the world, China enjoys fewer friends than one might expect, even with its willing trade partners. North Korea, Pakistan, Cambodia and Russia may count China as an important ally, but these relationships are not, I would argue, nearly as strong as those enjoyed by the United States globally. Even in the Asia-Pacific region there is a strong argument to say Washington enjoys greater sway, considering the especially close ties with allies Japan, South Korea and Australia.

Even though Chinese citizens report broad support for the Communist Party, Beijing’s capricious COVID-19 policies paired with an unwillingness to use foreign-made vaccines have dented perceptions of government effectiveness.

Further, China’s population is aging and unbalanced. In 2016, the country of 1.4 billion saw about 18 million births; in 2023, that number dropped to about 9 million. This alarming fall is not only in line with trends toward a shrinking working-age population, but also perhaps indicative of pessimism among Chinese citizens about the country’s future.

And at times, the actions of the Chinese government read like an implicit admission that the domestic situation is not all that rosy. For example, I take it as a sign of concern over systemic risk that China detained a million or more people, as has happened with the Muslim minority in Xinjiang province. Similarly, China’s policing of its internet suggests concerns over collective action by its citizens.

The sweeping anti-corruption campaign Beijing has embarked on, purges of the country’s military and the disappearance of leading business figures all hint at a government seeking to manage significant risk.

I hear many stories from contacts in China about people with money or influence hedging their bets by establishing a foothold outside the country. This aligns with research that has shown that in recent years, on average as much money leaves China via “irregular means” as for foreign direct investment.

A three-dimensional view

The perception of China’s inexorable rise is cultivated by the governing Communist Party, which obsessively seeks to manufacture and control narratives in state media and beyond that show it as all-knowing, farsighted and strategic. And perhaps this argument finds a receptive audience in segments of the United States concerned about its own decline.

It would help explain why a recent Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey found that about a third of American respondents see the Chinese and American economies as equal and another third see the Chinese economy as stronger. In reality, per capita GDP in the United States is six times that of China.

Of course, there is plenty of danger in predicting China’s collapse. Undoubtedly, the country has seen huge accomplishments since the People’s Republic of China’s founding in 1949: Hundreds of millions of people brought out of poverty, extraordinary economic development and impressive GDP growth over several decades, and growing diplomatic clout. These successes are especially noteworthy given that the People’s Republic of China is less than 75 years old and was in utter turmoil during the disastrous Cultural Revolution from 1966 to 1976, when intellectuals were sent to the countryside, schools stopped functioning and chaos reigned. In many cases, China’s successes merit emulation and include important lessons for developing and developed countries alike.

China may well be the “pacing challenge” that many in the U.S. believe. But it also faces significant internal challenges that often go under-recognized in evaluating the country’s comprehensive power.

And as the United States and China seek to steady a rocky relationship, it is imperative that the American public and Washington policymakers see China as fully three-dimensional – not some flat caricature that fits the needs of the moment. Otherwise, there is a risk of fanning the flames of xenophobia and neglecting opportunities for partnership that would benefit the United States.The Conversation

About the Author:

Dan Murphy, Executive Director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, Harvard Kennedy School

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Inflation is falling in Switzerland. Oil declines despite OPEC+ countries extending production cuts

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.25%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.12%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.41%. Stocks are seeing coverage of previously open positions. Markets await Fed Chairman Powell’s semi-annual testimony before a House committee on Wednesday and a Senate committee on Thursday for clues on future Fed policy. Powell is expected to maintain his hawkish stance and clarify that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates. In addition, Friday will see the release of the monthly US payrolls report, which will provide insight into whether the labor market remains strong and whether wage pressures are contained.

Comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects the Fed’s first interest rate cut in the third quarter to be followed by a pause to assess how the policy change affects the economy. Bostic added that he is concerned that businesses have too much optimism, and after a rate cut, it could spark a surge of new demand that would add to price pressures. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 2% for the March 19-20 FOMC meeting and 21% for the April 30-May 1 meeting.

Tesla (TSLA) stock price fell more than 7% and topped the list of losers in the S&P 500 (US500) and NASDAQ (US100) after the China Passenger Car Association reported that February shipments of Tesla vehicles in China fell by 15.5% m/m. Apple (AAPL) is down more than 2% after the European Union fined it €1.8 billion ($2 billion) in connection with an investigation that it was shutting out competitors on its platforms. Nvidia (NVDA) shares are up more than 3% to a record high, surpassing Saudi Aramco to become the world’s third most valuable public company behind Apple and Microsoft. Lyft (LYFT) closed higher by more than 4% after RBC Capital Markets upgraded the stock to “optimistic” from “neutral” with a $23 price target.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat on Monday. German DAX (DE40) declined 0.11%, French CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.28% yesterday, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.05% on Monday, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.55%. European stock exchanges were weak on Monday as investors awaited the European Central Bank’s upcoming interest rate decision. The Central Bank is expected to keep rates unchanged despite weakening inflation.

Swiss inflation fell in February to its lowest level in nearly two and a half years. Consumer prices were 1.2% from a year earlier, down from January’s 1.3%, though slightly above the 1.1% forecast. The SNB met its target from May 2023 despite rising rents, higher sales tax, and energy prices. Lower inflation increases the likelihood that the SNB will cut rates at its next meeting on March 21. The probability that the SNB will cut rates from the current level of 1.75% is estimated by markets at 66%.

WTI crude futures fell to around $78.5 a barrel on Tuesday, declining for a second straight session, as lingering demand concerns overshadowed an extension of supply cuts by OPEC and its allies. Analysts argued that subdued growth in global oil demand is likely to counter OPEC+ production cuts, raising questions about its output policy. Investors also priced in developments at a key policy meeting in China, where the government set its economic growth target 2024 at around 5%, matching expectations.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped 0.50%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.13%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.04% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.13% on Monday.

China’s Caixin Services PMI fell to 52.5 in February 2024 from 52.7 in January. It was the 14th consecutive month of growth in service sector activity but the slowest pace since November last year amid subdued growth in total new work. The growth rate in new orders changed little and remained below the 2023 average.

Jibun Bank’s Japan Services PMI was revised upward to 52.9 in February 2024 from 52.5 after a four-month high of 53.1 in January. This marked the 18th consecutive month of growth in the services sector, helped by the sharpest rise in new business starts since August last year due to tourism demand and new product launches. However, growth was mainly driven by domestic demand.

Final data showed that the Judo Bank Flash Australian Services PMI business activity index rose to 53.1 in February from 49.1 in the previous month. This was the first rise in service sector activity in five months and the fastest since April 2023, as renewed growth in new orders led to a rebound in business activity. Improving demand conditions boosted activity in the services sector, with improved economic conditions and increased inquiries contributing to another rise in new work. New export orders also returned to growth for the first time since September 2023, supported by new customers and increased interest from customers in Asia.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,130.95 −6.13 (−0.12%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,989.83 −97.55 (−0.25%)

DAX (DE40)  17,716.17 −18.90 (−0.11%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,640.33 −42.17 (−0.55%)

USD Index 103.83 −0.03 (−0.03%)

Important events today:
  • – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
  • – Germany Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks (m/m) at 19:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks (m/m) at 22:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Semiconductor stocks continue to rally. The first interest rate cuts by central banks are expected in June

By JustMarkets 

On Thursday, stock indices posted moderate gains on signs that inflationary pressures continue to ease. The Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.52% at yesterday’s stock market close. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.12%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed the day positively by 0.90%. In addition, other Fed-friendly reports on Thursday on weekly jobless claims, January MNI Chicago PMI, and January home sales data lowered bond yields and supported equities.

The US core PCE deflator for January declined to 2.8% y/y from 2.9% y/y in December, which matched expectations and was the slowest rate of increase in 2 years. US weekly initial jobless claims rose by 13,000 to 215,000, indicating a weak labor market vs. expectations of 210,000. US personal spending in January rose by 0.2% m/m, matching expectations. Personal income for January increased by 1.0% m/m, which was stronger than expectations of 0.4% mom and the largest increase in a year. Chicago PMI for February unexpectedly declined 2.0 to 44.0, which was weaker than expectations for a rise to 48.0 and the sharpest rate of contraction in 7 months. January US home sales unexpectedly fell by 4.9% m/m, which was weaker than expectations for a 1.5% m/m increase and was the steepest decline in the last 5 months.

Atlanta Fed President Bostic said yesterday that if inflation continues to decline as he expects, it will probably be appropriate for the Fed to start easing rates this summer. Currently, markets are pricing in a 25 bps chance of a rate cut of 3% at the March 19-20 FOMC meeting and 21% at the next meeting on April 30-May 1.

Shares of chip companies rose on Thursday after Citigroup said it remains optimistic about semiconductor stocks given solid demand. The artificial intelligence market continues to grow as businesses and organizations actively buy chips for artificial intelligence.

Salesforce (CRM) stock is up more than 3%, leading the Dow Jones Industrials (US30) higher after Raymond James raised its price target on the shares from $300 to $380. HP Inc (HPQ) closed down more than 1% after reporting first-quarter net revenue of $13.19 billion, weaker than the consensus forecast of $13.58 billion.

The Bank of Canada is forecast to cut the overnight interest rate in June. The timing roughly coincides with when the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will cut their first interest rate.

Equity markets in Europe traded yesterday without a single dynamic. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.44%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.34% yesterday, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.67%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.07%.

German retail sales for January unexpectedly fell by 0.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.5% m/m. German unemployment for February rose by 11,000, showing a weaker labor market than expected 5,000. The unemployment rate for February was unchanged at 5.9%, weaker than expectations of 5.8%. The German Consumer Price Index (EU harmonized) for February declined to 2.7% y/y from 3.1% y/y in January, which was in line with expectations.

ECB Governing Council spokesman Holzmann said yesterday that he sees no significant negotiations on lowering borrowing costs before the ECB’s June meeting. Swaps are pricing in a 25 bps chance of a 25 bps ECB rate cut to 5% at the next meeting on March 7 and 22% at the April 11 meeting.

Crude oil prices rose on Thursday on expectations that OPEC+ will extend next week’s oil production cuts by about 2 million bpd beyond March. In addition, ongoing attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial ships in the Red Sea have disrupted Middle Eastern oil supplies and bolstered US physical oil markets as foreign buyers turn to US crude supplies to avoid transportation problems.

Natural gas prices increased on Thursday after the EIA’s weekly natural gas inventories fell by 96 billion cubic feet, more than the expected 85 billion cubic feet.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.87%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.70% on Thursday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 0.29% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.96% on the day. Most Asian stocks extended gains on Friday, following strong overnight gains on Wall Street, with Japanese and Australian markets hitting record highs amid growing hopes of an interest rate cut in 2024. Chinese stocks also rose slightly, even as purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data showed that business activity in China remained sluggish in February. China’s manufacturing sector contracted for the fifth consecutive month, dragging down overall business activity, even though a rise in consumer spending during the New Year holiday period helped non-manufacturing businesses.

Yesterday, Bank of Japan (BoJ) board official Takata said the 2% price target is finally approaching, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate campaign. But earlier today, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said it was too early to conclude that inflation was close to sustainably reaching the 2% inflation target and emphasized the need to scrutinize more data on the wage outlook. The divergent views underscore the difficulties within the Bank.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,096.27 +26.51 (+0.52%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,996.39 +47.37 (+0.12%)

DAX (DE40)  17,678.19 +76.97 (+0.44%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,630.02 +5.04 (+0.07%)

USD Index  104.12 +0.17 (+0.16%)

Important events today:
  • – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
  • – New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 02:05 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 03:10 (GMT+2);
  • – China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
  • – China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
  • – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Flash Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
  • – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 19:15 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Daly Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.