By JustMarkets

As of Wednesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 1.03%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.89%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.25%. The US stocks closed at record highs on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve left its outlook for interest rate cuts unchanged.

The FOMC left the federal funds rate unchanged at a 23-year high of 5.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting in March 2024, matching market expectations. Policymakers added that they did not believe it would be appropriate to reduce the target range until there is confidence that inflation is moving steadily toward 2%. The median expectations of FOMC members suggest 75 basis points of rate cuts this year. The dot plot also points to three rate cuts in 2025, one fewer than in December, despite a slight upward revision to PCE inflation. However, the sharp upward revision to US GDP forecasts continued to support US equities, reflecting this year’s rally away from the Fed’s restrictive policies. The FOMC also said it will continue to shrink its monthly balance sheet by $95 billion. Fed Chair Powell said it is appropriate to begin easing “at some point this year” and that recent inflation data indicate the Fed was correct to wait before cutting interest rates.

The Bank of Canada’s Board of Governors expects a possible rate cut in 2024 if economic trends match forecasts, but internal disagreements over timing and inflation risks remain. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem remains cautious about an immediate rate adjustment due to concerns about core inflation. The bank forecasts weak growth in the first quarter to gradually pick up to 1% by the end of the year, while inflation is expected to hover around 3% in the first half of 2024, then fall to 2.5% in the second half and eventually return to the 2% target by 2025.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) added 0.15%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.48% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.48%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.01%.

ECB President Christine Lagarde joined other European policymakers in calling June a likely month to start discussing ECB rate cuts. However, she cautioned that the ECB would not commit to a predetermined number of rate cuts as the decision depends on incoming data.

WTI crude oil prices fell about 2% to $81 a barrel on Wednesday, moving away from four-month highs reached on Tuesday. Investors locked in some gains after strong oil prices. Meanwhile, EIA data showed that US crude inventories unexpectedly fell by 1.95 million, the largest in two months, as refiners continued to ramp up activity.

The US natural gas (XNG) prices fell below $1.7 per MMBtu, near their lowest monthly level, amid pessimistic demand and high domestic supply. The Freeport LNG export plant in Texas announced that two of its three liquefaction lines will be taken offline before May, delaying a period of low capacity at a key plant. These developments will prevent the US from exporting additional natural gas through the LNG plant, reducing the supply of the commodity for domestic consumption.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was not trading yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.04% on Wednesday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.08% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.10%.

Economists say the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise rates amid an improving economic outlook in the coming months. In addition, Japan’s Finance Minister Suzuki said that the government is monitoring currency movements with a “great sense of urgency” after the yen broke through the 151 per dollar mark. In other words, the government is not ruling out currency intervention to support the exchange rate.

New Zealand’s economy contracted 0.3% in the December quarter of 2023 from a year earlier, after contracting 0.6% in the prior period, falling short of market estimates of 0.1% growth. New Zealand’s technical recession persists. Markets have raised expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), and there is now a 55% chance of such a move in July. A quarter-point cut in the RBNZ rate is also fully forecast for August.

The Australian dollar rose to $0.66, hitting its highest level in a week, helped by stronger-than-expected employment data from the country. The latest data showed that Australian employment rose by 116,500 in February, well above market forecasts that expected a 40,000 increase. The unemployment rate also fell to a five-month low of 3.7% last month, better than market expectations of 4%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,224.62 +46.11 (+0.89%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,512.13 +401.37 (+1.03%)

DAX (DE40) 18,015.13 +27.64 (+0.15%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,737.38 −0.92 (−0.01%)

USD Index 103.39 −0.04 (−0.04%)

• – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
• – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
• – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• – Hong Kong Inflation Rate (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
• – Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision at 10:30 (GMT+2);
• – Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment at 10:30 (GMT+2);
• – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
• – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
• – Switzerland SNB Press Conference at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – Norway Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
• – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
• – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
• – US Services PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
• – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
• – New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

As of Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.83%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.56%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.39%.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold its Wednesday monetary policy meeting today. The Fed had initially planned to begin cutting rates in March. However, stronger than expected US inflation data (primarily producer inflation – PPI) raised concerns that the central bank may delay an interest rate cut further. As a result, the likelihood of a rate cut was pushed back first to May and then to June. Markets currently estimate the probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the March FOMC meeting at 1%, at the next meeting on May 1 at 9%, and at the June 12 meeting at 59%. The rate is expected to remain at 5.5% at the current meeting, but investors’ main focus will be the press conference. Investors will be paying attention to any clues about the prospects for a central bank rate cut, the strength of the US economy, and the possibility of an inflationary rebound. If Jerome Powell begins to back away from a rate cut this summer, it could put further pressure on the indices.

Semiconductor stocks came under pressure Tuesday after Nvidia (NVDA) unveiled new, more powerful chips for artificial intelligence. As a result, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares fell more than 4%. In addition, shares of Marvell Technology (MRVL) are down more than 3%, and Intel (INTC) is down more than 1%.

Canada’s annual inflation rate slowed to 2.8% in February 2024 from 2.9% in January 2024 and was the lowest since June 2023. This result also contradicts market expectations of 3.1%, giving the Bank of Canada (BoC) more room to start easing monetary policy in the year’s second half. The Canadian dollar fell below 1.36 per dollar, hitting a nearly four-month low.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) added 0.31%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.65%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose 0.99%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.20%. European indices rose yesterday, helped by positive Eurozone wage data. Labor costs rose slowly over a year, spurring speculation that the ECB may consider cutting interest rates later this year.

The ZEW survey of German economic growth expectations rose 11.8 to a two-year high of 31.7, beating expectations of 20.5. The German Economic Sentiment Index (ZEW) gauges the sentiment of institutional investors. It is a key indicator of business conditions. A reading above expectations is seen as positive for the European economy.

ECB Vice President Gindos said, “The ECB hasn’t yet discussed anything about future rate moves. The evolution of wages is key, and in June, we will also have our new projections and be ready to decide when to adjust our policy stance based on the data we see.” Swaps put the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 6% for the next meeting on April 11 and 82% for the June 6 meeting.

WTI crude prices fell to $82.5 a barrel on Wednesday, retreating slightly from recent highs, as investors closed some of their gains after a strong rally in oil prices ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s decision. Iraq announced plans to cut oil exports to 3.3 million bpd in the coming months to meet its OPEC+ quota, while Saudi Arabia cut crude exports for the second consecutive month. At the same time, economic data from China, including strong industrial production and retail sales figures, reinforced expectations of rising demand from the world’s largest oil importer.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) ended the day up 0.66%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.23% on Tuesday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down 1.24%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.36%.

On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) left the one-year and five-year prime rates unchanged at 3.45% and 3.95% respectively. The one-year LPR is the benchmark for most residential and corporate loans, while the five-year LPR determines most real estate mortgages. Both rates are at record lows as China’s central bank seeks to stimulate an economic turnaround amid adversity in the real estate sector and record-low consumer confidence.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,178.51 +29.09 (+0.56%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,110.76 +320.33 (+0.83%)

DAX (DE40) 17,987.49 +54.81 (+0.31%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,738.30 +15.75 (+0.20%)

USD Index 103.80 +0.37 (+0.36%)

• – China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 03:15 (GMT+2);
• – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:45 (GMT+2);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Economic Projections at 20:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 20:00 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Statement at 20:00 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Press Conference at 20:30 (GMT+2);
• – New Zealand GDP (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.20% at Monday’s stock market close. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.63%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.82%. Tesla (TSLA) stock price rose more than 6% and led the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 stocks higher after the company announced on website X that it would raise the price of all US Model Y vehicles by $1,000 on April 1. Alphabet (GOOGL) stock is up more than 4% after it was reported that Apple is in talks to embed Google’s Gemini artificial intelligence search engine into the iPhone.

Canada’s inflation report will be released today. No changes in the figures are expected, so the Canadian dollar will likely be affected by volatility. However, any deviations from the consensus forecast could trigger a strong rally. Remember that when inflation rises, the domestic currency tends to strengthen on expectations of a more hawkish central bank stance.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.02%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.20% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.01% and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.06%.

ECB Governing Council spokesman de Kos said yesterday that the ECB has achieved its goal of bringing inflation to 2%, which is compatible with an interest rate cut in the near term. Swaps put the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 7% at the next meeting on April 11 and 80% at the June 6 meeting.

Silver gained support yesterday on the back of global economic news on Monday. This news showed that February industrial production in China rose more than expected and that the March NAHB housing market index in the US unexpectedly rose, which is favorable for industrial metals demand.

Asian markets were up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) ended the day up 2.67%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.57%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 0.97% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.07%. Chinese stocks rose on Monday as data showed that retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment in China rose more than expected in the year’s first two months. Traders now await tomorrow’s People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) decision on one-year and five-year loans. No changes are expected, but volatility on Asian indices could rise markedly.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates to 0% from 0.1% for the first time since 2007, ending eight years of negative rates amid rising wages and high inflation. The central bank also abandoned its policy of controlling the yield curve, no longer targeting 10-year bond yields. In addition, the board agreed to stop buying ETFs and J-REITs and to gradually reduce its purchases of commercial paper and corporate bonds, with plans to stop buying bonds completely in about a year.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates unchanged at 4.35%, as expected, but retracted its previous warning that further rate hikes were not ruled out. This indicates confidence that inflation will continue to fall and raises bets that the RBA may start cutting rates later this year. Markets are pricing in the first rate cut in August, predicting 40 basis points of overall easing this year.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,149.42 +32.33 (+0.63%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,790.43 +75.66 (+0.20%)

DAX (DE40) 17,932.68 −3.97 (−0.02%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,722.55 −4.87 (−0.06%)

USD Index 103.58 +0.15 (+0.15%)

• – Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 04:30 (GMT+2);
• – Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 04:30 (GMT+2);
• – Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 05:30 (GMT+2);
• – Australia RBA Rate Statement at 05:30 (GMT+2);
• – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Building Permits (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

As of Friday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.49% (for the week +0.12%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.65% (for the week +0.10%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.96% (for the week -0.49%). Last week, the real estate, health care, and technology sectors were the biggest laggards, while energy, communication services, and commodities outperformed the market. The moves came as stronger-than-expected US inflation data raised concerns that the central bank may further delay interest rate cuts. The Fed had initially planned to start cutting rates in March, but that deadline was then pushed back to June and could now be pushed back even further. The rate is expected to remain at 5.5%, but the real factor could be the conference call after the meeting. If Powell begins to back away from cutting rates this summer, it could put further pressure on the indices.

Friday saw a huge quarterly derivatives expiration in the US market, accounting for $5.1 trillion in index and equity options. Since the consensus has been bullish in equities recently, market makers now have huge hedging long positions open in equities and indices. Once the derivatives expire, market makers will get rid of this hedge and thus put pressure on the stock market. Statistically, corrections in bull markets have often occurred in periods of quarterly expirations. Perhaps now it will help the indices to let off a little steam.

The Nvidia GTC developer conference, which begins today, will be closely watched in anticipation of announcements related to artificial intelligence. Investors will undoubtedly want to hear announcements that keep the company’s stock skyrocketing. CEO Jensen Huang will deliver the keynote address and possibly offer attendees a first look at its newest products, including the next-generation B100 GPU for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing applications. Nvidia’s stock gains over the past year have increased its market value by $1 trillion, putting it at the top of the S&P 500 Index.

In addition to the Fed meeting, internationally, investors’ attention this week will be focused on interest rate decisions from Japan, the UK, Australia, Brazil, Turkey, Switzerland, and Norway. In addition, inflation data from Canada, the UK, South Africa, and Japan will be the focus.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.03% (for the week +1.39%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.04% (for the week +2.24%) on Friday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) was up 1.02% (for the week +3.09%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.20% (for the week +0.88%).

Oil prices rose nearly 4% last week as the International Energy Agency released an optimistic demand outlook and predicted a small deficit this year. WTI crude prices rose above $81 a barrel on Monday, extending last week’s gains, as heightened geopolitical risks raise supply concerns. Ukraine has stepped up drone strikes on Russian refineries over the past week, shutting down about 7% of Russian refining capacity in the first quarter. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also said he would press ahead with plans to push into the Rafah enclave in the Gaza Strip, complicating the chances of a peace deal.

Silver prices climbed above the $25 an ounce mark on Friday and were up more than 4% for the week, driven by safe-haven demand as investors sought refuge from increased military and inflation risks. The latest US consumer price index and producer price index data came in stronger than expected. At the same time, geopolitical tensions on the global stage intensified after Russia moved its tactical nuclear weapons closer to NATO.

US natural gas prices fell below $1.7 per Mmbbl on Friday, marking a more than 6% decline for the week. This was driven by forecasts of mild weather that would reduce the demand for gas for heating. Despite the larger-than-expected withdrawals, the latest EIA data shows gas in storage is still 37.1 percent above average for this time of year.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 1.34% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 2.04% for the 5 trading days, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 1.86% for the week, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.88%. Asian equity markets mostly rose on Monday as investors were cheered by better-than-expected Chinese retail sales and industrial production figures for the first two months of this year. However, China’s urban unemployment rate stood at 5.3% in January-February 2024, up from 5.1% in December. This is the highest rate since July last year.

The all-important Bank of Japan meeting will be held as early as tomorrow. Signs that employers are planning significant wage increases seem to have inclined the central bank to finally abandon the massive monetary easing that has been applied for years to stimulate growth in the country. The last time the rate was raised was 17 years ago. The current meeting has a 56% chance of a +10bp BoJ rate hike.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,117.09 −33.39 (−0.65%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,714.77 −190.89 (−0.49%)

DAX (DE40) 17,936.65 −5.39 (−0.03%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,727.42 −15.73 (−0.20%)

USD Index 103.45 +0.02 (+0.01%)

• – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
• – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
• – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By ForexTime 

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.35%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.29%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.30%.

The US weekly initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 209,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of a rise to 218,000. Thursday’s US retail sales report for February 0.6% m/m was weaker than market expectations of 0.8%, while the January figure was revised downward to 1.1% m/m from 0.8%. The February PPI reading of 1.6% y/y was stronger than market expectations of 1.2% and exceeded the revised January reading of 1.0% y/y (preliminary 0.9%). However, February core PPI fell to a 2-year low of 3.8% y/y. Either way, February’s core CPI and PPI remain above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

After the release of macro statistics, UST yields started to rise, and stock indices were corrected. Investors fear that amid high inflation, the Fed may reduce the number of scheduled rate cuts this year from three to two. So far, this is unlikely, but any hints from Mr. Powell on this trend at the upcoming meeting may trigger the beginning of a correction in the indices.

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) closed 4.12% lower, adding 4.81% to Wednesday’s losses. UBS lowered its price target for Tesla on Thursday from $165 to $225 but maintained a neutral rating. The bearish sentiment on TSLA has persisted since Wednesday, when Wells Fargo downgraded Tesla to “underweight” from “equal-weight” due to its view that electric vehicle sales will remain flat in 2024 and decline in 2025.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.11%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.29%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.66%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.37%.

ECB Governing Council spokesman Stournaras said on Thursday that he favors two interest rate cuts before the ECB’s August break and two more before the end of the year. He also said a rate cut in June is more likely than one in April. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 10% at the next meeting on April 11 and 90% at the next meeting on June 6. In Europe today, investors will assess final inflation data in France and Italy.

Oil prices rose because of an IEA report released on Thursday that said oil markets will face a supply shortage by the end of this year due to OPEC+ production cuts. On Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that global oil markets would be in deficit by the end of 2024 if OPEC+ maintained its current production cuts. However, the balance would become a surplus if OPEC+ started pumping more oil. OPEC+ will meet on June 1 to decide on production levels for the second half 2024.

Natural gas prices rose Thursday after the EIA’s weekly report showed US gas inventories fell by 9 billion cubic feet, which was higher than market expectations of 2 billion cubic feet. Natural gas prices are also under pressure after the Freeport LNG natural gas export terminal in Texas shut down one of three production units on March 1 due to damage caused by freezing weather in Texas. The unit is scheduled to resume operations this week.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.29% on the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.23%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.71% on Thursday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.20%.

Major Japanese companies have already agreed to meet union demands for wage increases. This raises the possibility that the central bank (BoJ) could exit its negative interest rate policy as early as next week due to rising wages, high inflation, and a stable economy.

Australia’s economy grew less than expected in the fourth quarter, supporting bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may start cutting rates this year. Markets currently estimate a 70% probability of the RBA starting to cut the money rate in August, with 40 basis points of easing this year.

The National Bureau of Statistics released Chinese house price data for February for a sample of 70 cities, which showed continued price declines in line with expectations. Average primary market prices fell 0.36% month-over-month, while average secondary market prices fell 0.62% month-over-month. Both figures were similar to the January decline.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,150.48 −14.83 (−0.29%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,905.66 −137.66 (−0.35%)

DAX (DE40) 17,942.04 −19.34 (−0.11%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,743.15 −29.02 (−0.37%)

USD Index 103.36 +0.57 (+0.55%)

• – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
• – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

At Wednesday’s close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.09%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.19%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.54%. The Dow Jones Industrials Index received support from companies such as 3M (MMM) with a gain of 5.42%, as well as Chevron (CVX), Caterpillar (CAT), Home Depot (HD), NIKE (NKE), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Coca Cola (KO) with gains of more than 1%.

Fed Chairman Powell said last week that the Fed is “not far” from being confident enough to cut interest rates. However, markets rate the Fed’s probability of cutting interest rates at its meeting next week as near zero, as inflation is still too far above target. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at next week’s March 20 FOMC meeting at 1%, the May 1 meeting at 13%, and the June 12 meeting at 73%.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.02%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.62%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) index increased by 1.65%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.31%. The FTSE Index closed at 7,772 on Wednesday, the highest in ten months and marking the third consecutive session of gains. Market sentiment was driven by positive economic data that boosted hopes that the UK is recovering. UK Gross Domestic Product rose by 0.2% month-on-month in January, driven by strong retail and house-building performance.

ECB council spokesman Martins Kazaks said Wednesday that rate cuts could come within the next few meetings. His counterpart, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau, said the ECB’s first rate cut is more likely in June than April.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $80 a barrel on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session, as an unexpected drop in US crude inventories signaled strong demand in the world’s top oil consumer. EIA data showed US crude inventories fell by 1.536 million barrels last week, contradicting expectations of a 1.338 million barrel increase. It was the first decline in seven weeks, confirming industry data reported Tuesday by API. In addition, the report noted a decline in inventories at the Cushing hub in Oklahoma and a decrease in gasoline inventories.

Silver prices (XAGUSD) rose to $24.7 an ounce, the highest since early December. They followed gains in other precious metals amid growing expectations that major central banks will soon start cutting interest rates. The Fed and ECB are expected to begin easing monetary policy in June, while the Bank of England will likely make its first rate cut in August.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.26% on the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.89%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.07% on Wednesday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.22%. The Hang Seng Index (HK50) moved further away from the 3-month highs reached earlier in the week after Wall Street fell from recent highs overnight due to losses in chipmaker stocks, and market participants were wary of new key US economic data ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.

The US House of Representatives passed a landmark bill that gives Chinese TikTok owner ByteDance six months to sell a controlling stake or the app will be blocked in the US.

Investors remain cautious amid growing speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could adjust its monetary policy as early as next week due to rising wages, inflation, and a strong economy. The country also concluded this year’s spring wage talks on Wednesday, with several major Japanese companies agreeing to solid wage increases.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,165.31 −9.96 (−0.19%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,043.32 +37.83 (+0.097%)

DAX (DE40) 17,961.38 −3.73 (−0.021%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,772.17 +24.36 (+0.31%)

USD Index 102.80 -0.16 (-0.16%)

• – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.61%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.61%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.54%. Despite a slight rise in inflation, stock indices refuse to fall. The bullish consensus in the market is so strong that it is almost unrealistic to turn this train around without a significant negative trigger. It is probably not worth waiting for any changes in the market until the quarterly expiration this Friday.

The market focus will shift to the Fed meeting next week on March 20. If the market does not hear any negative signals from Mr. Powell, the best strategy for the coming months will be to follow the bullish trend and buy risky assets. Currently, markets are pricing the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 1% for next week’s FOMC meeting on March 20, 15% for the next meeting on May 1, and 78% for the subsequent meeting on June 12.

Shares of Oracle (ORCL) jumped by 11.88% on Tuesday after its earnings report beat market expectations on Monday, thanks to a surge in orders for cloud services. The company said that demand for Gen2 AI infrastructure is significantly outstripping supply. Boeing (BA) fell another 4.17% following news that officials in Chile have launched an investigation into a flight traveling from Auckland to Sydney where a violent air shake was reported, resulting in the hospitalization of 10 people and injuries to 50 people. In addition, the CEO of United Airlines told Boeing that it no longer wants to deliver Boeing 737 Max 10 airplanes because of delays in certification.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.23%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.84%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.61%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 1.02%.

There is broad agreement at the European Central Bank to start cutting interest rates in the spring as the fight against inflation is won, according to Governing Council spokesman Francois Villeroy de Galhau. The risk of waiting too long before easing monetary policy and unnecessarily hurting the economy is now equal to the risk of acting too soon and letting inflation recover. Policymakers can act independently of their counterparts at the Federal Reserve and will have ample room to adjust the pace of easing as needed once the process begins, the policymaker said.

WTI crude prices rose to around $78 a barrel on Wednesday, pulling back from two-week lows amid a favorable outlook for global demand. In its monthly report, OPEC said global oil demand is expected to grow by 2.25 million bpd in 2024 and 1.85 million bpd in 2025, unchanged from previous estimates. The group also raised its economic growth forecast for the current year, indicating room for improvement. In addition, industry data showed that US crude inventories unexpectedly fell by 5.521 million barrels last week, indicating healthy demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.06% on the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.89%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 3.05% on Tuesday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.11%.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gave a slightly gloomier assessment of the economy ahead of the central bank’s policy meeting next week. Ueda told parliament that Japan’s economy is recovering at a moderate pace, although there is weakness in some data. He added that there are various ways to raise the cost of short-term borrowing if the central bank decides to end negative interest rates, but offered few clues. There has been increasing speculation recently that the Bank of Japan could start raising interest rates this month because of rising wages, high inflation, and a robust economy.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,175.27 +57.33 (+1.12%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,005.49 +235.83 (+0.61%)

DAX (DE40) 17,965.11 +218.84 (+1.23%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,747.81 +78.58 (+1.02%)

USD Index 102.93 +0.06 (+0.06%)

• – UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.