InvestMacro

By JustMarkets

At the end of last trading week, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.08%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.23%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.05%.

The dollar index settled at 104.5 in post-holiday trading on Monday. Investors are digesting the latest PCE Price Index report, searching for clues about the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy. Data released on Friday showed that the Fed’s recommended inflation rate rose by 0.3% month-on-month in February, slowing from an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in January, which was also in line with the consensus predicted. The report also showed that consumer spending last month rose by the most in a year, indicating the economy is resilient. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated on Friday that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates and that the latest PCE inflation data aligns with what the Fed wants. Markets now believe there is a nearly 70% chance that the Fed will start cutting rates in June, with a total rate cut of 75 basis points this year.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up last week. Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 1.75%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.69%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 2.01%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.89%.

The UK economy remains weak, and rate cuts will be welcomed across sectors. The latest ONS data showed that the UK economy entered a technical recession in Q4 2023. The Spring Budget is forecast to boost GDP by around a quarter of one percentage point, but domestic growth needs more stimulus. Against this economic backdrop, the economy needs stimulus, with inflation falling rapidly and the labor market stagnant or marginally weaker. Therefore, the Bank of England has every reason to plan for a series of rate cuts this year, starting with its June 20 meeting.

According to the latest forecasts from ECB staff, Eurozone inflation will continue to fall in the coming months and quarters. With price pressures easing rapidly, the European Central Bank has additional certainty and flexibility regarding the timing of the first interest rate cut. Financial markets certainly believe this is the most likely scenario, which will put pressure on the euro in the weeks and months ahead.

Gold rose above $2,250 an ounce on Monday, extending its rally to record levels. Softer-than-expected US inflation data bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in June. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion, increasing its investment value.

WTI crude oil prices rose to around $83.5 a barrel on Monday, hitting their highest level in five months, as investors look ahead to this week’s joint OPEC+ ministerial meeting. The group is expected to review market fundamentals and OPEC representatives’ adherence to production targets, which will continue to support oil prices.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) declined by 1.05%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.05% over 5 trading days, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.35% last week, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.48%.

Asian stock markets were mixed on Monday as investors assessed several regional economic reports. A private survey showed that China’s manufacturing activity in March grew rapidly since February 2023 amid robust demand. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey showed that sentiment among large manufacturers in Japan declined in Q1 for the first time in a year as automobile plant closures over the past few months took a heavy toll.

Indonesia’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.05% in March 2024 from 2.75% in February, beating expectations of 2.91%, above the BI (Bank Indonesia) target range of 1.5 to 3.5%. It was the highest inflation rate since August last year, with food prices rising the most in 18 months amid fasting in Ramadan and ahead of the Eid-el-Fitr holiday.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,254.35 0 (0%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,807.37 0 (0%)

DAX (DE40) 18,492.49 0 (0%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,952.62 0 (0%)

USD Index 104.49 -0.06 (-0.06%)

• – Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
• – Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
• – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
• – China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
• – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
• – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

As of Wednesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.12%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.11%, setting an all-time high. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.14%. Stocks received some support from Thursday’s upwardly revised fourth-quarter GDP report. In contrast, the core PCE price deflator was revised downward, reinforcing the prospect of a soft landing for the economy. However, hawkish comments from Fed spokesman Waller on Wednesday night pushed bond yields higher and capped gains in stocks when he said the latest inflation data was disappointing and he wanted to see at least a couple of months of better inflation data before cutting interest rates.

US weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 2,000 to 210,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of a rise to 212,000. US GDP for Q4 was revised upward to 3.4% (QoQ), which is stronger than expectations of 3.2%, and Personal Consumption for Q4 was revised upward to 3.3%, which is stronger than expectations of 3.0%. US home sales for February rose by 1.6 % mom, slightly stronger than expectations of 1.5% mom. The March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised upward to a 2-year high of 79.4, stronger than expectations of 76.5.

Although most financial markets are closed today, the PCE Price Index report will be released in the US. The overall PCE Price Index is expected to remain at a 2.4% annualized rate. The Core Price Index (which excludes food and energy prices) is forecast at 2.7% y/y from the current 2.8%. If the Core PCE Price Index remains around 2.8%, it would confirm the Fed’s hypothesis that progress on the inflation front has stalled. In such a scenario, the dollar index may get additional support.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.08%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.01%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.33%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.26%.

Thursday’s Eurozone money supply report and German retail sales report for February proved dovish for ECB policy and supported European indices. In addition, indices rose due to dovish comments from ECB Governing Council representatives Panetta and Villeroy de Galhau, who said that conditions for monetary easing are emerging and rate cuts should start in the spring. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 11% at the next meeting on April 11 and 95% at the June 6 meeting.

Gold (XAU/USD) held above $2,230 an ounce on Friday, sitting at all-time highs amid bets that major central banks will move to cut interest rates this year. Heated geopolitical tensions boosted bullion demand. The metal’s price rose more than 9% in March. Silver (XAG/USD) gained support on Thursday after the US fourth-quarter GDP data was revised slightly higher, which was a positive for industrial metals demand.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $82 per barrel on Thursday, marking the third consecutive monthly rise. This was driven by optimism over the OPEC+ alliance’s continued production cuts. Despite rising geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supplies, OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current oil production policy at its meeting next Wednesday.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 1.46%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.90%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.91% on the day and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.99%.

The offshore yuan weakened to 7.26 per dollar, near its lowest level in four months, amid expectations that China will further ease policy to stimulate growth. Meanwhile, US interest rates may remain elevated for an extended period amid stagnant inflation. A senior central bank official recently said the People’s Bank of China has room to further reduce banks’ reserve requirement ratios.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,254.35 +5.86 (+0.11%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,807.37 +47.29 (+0.12%)

DAX (DE40) 18,492.49 +15.40 (+0.083%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,952.62 +20.64 (+0.26%)

USD Index 104.53 +0.19 (+0.18%)

• – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+2);
• – US Core PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Daly Speaks at 17:20 (GMT+2);
• – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, the US stock indices ended trading with moderate growth. A decline in T-note bond yields supported the broader market. Investors also welcomed reports that S&P Global Ratings maintained its AA+ long-term US sovereign credit rating and A-1+ short-term sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook. As of Wednesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.22%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.86%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.51%.

Merck’s (MRK) stock price rose more than 4% and topped the Dow Jones Industrials Index after its pulmonary arterial hypertension drug Winrevair received approval from the US Food and Drug Administration. Netflix (NFLX) shares closed down more than 2% after Wedbush removed it from its list of best ideas, saying the company will have a “much harder time” impressing investors this year compared to last. According to SEC filings, Salesforce (CRM) closed down more than 1% and topped the Dow Jones Industrials losers list on signs of insider selling after CEO Benioff sold $4.59 million worth of shares on Monday.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.50% and set a new all-time high, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed yesterday up 0.25%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.09%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.01%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index (EU50) rose to a 23-year high on Wednesday.

More ECB policymakers are hinting at a rate cut in June. Yesterday, ECB Governing Council representative Kazaks said inflation will continue to fall across the Eurozone, and June could be a good time for the ECB to start lowering borrowing costs. His colleague, ECB executive board representative Cipollone, added that if incoming data confirms the scenario envisioned in the March forecasts, the ECB should be ready to roll back its restrictive monetary policy stance quickly. Currently, swaps are pricing in the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut to 13% at the next meeting on April 11 and fully pricing in that rate cut (100%) at the next meeting on June 6.

German retail sales in February 2024 fell by 1.9% month-on-month, falling short of market forecasts that expected a 0.3% increase. This was the fourth consecutive month of decline in retail sales and the sharpest pace since October 2022, reflecting the impact of higher inflation and high borrowing costs.

The UK economy contracted by 0.3% in the final quarter of 2023, entering a technical recession as high inflation, record borrowing costs, and weak external demand put pressure on demand and activity.

WTI crude futures rose to $82 a barrel on Thursday, breaking a two-day decline, as the latest EIA report pointed to a smaller weekly increase in US crude inventories compared to API data. The EIA data showed that US crude inventories rose by 3.165 million barrels last week, beating market expectations for a 1.275 million barrel decline but far less than the 9.337 million barrel increase reported by the API. Investors also highlighted ongoing supply concerns before next week’s OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.90%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.76%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.36% yesterday, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.51%. At the market open on Thursday, Chinese indices bounced off one-month lows amid expectations that Chinese authorities will step up policy support to shore up the economy. On Thursday, Chinese lawmaker Zhao Leji said that the country would continue to open its economy to foreign investors, which boosted market sentiment. Investors are awaiting data on manufacturing and services activity in China in the coming days to gauge the health of the world’s second-largest economy. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with US business leaders in Beijing on Wednesday as the government seeks to return foreign investors to the country.

The Reserve Bank of South Africa unanimously decided to keep the key repo rate at 8.25%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting at 2009 levels, as expected. Policymakers emphasized that risks to the inflation outlook were generally skewed to the upside. Core inflation accelerated for the second consecutive month, reaching 5.6% in February from January’s 5.3%, nearing the upper end of the central bank’s target range of 3-6%. Inflation is not expected to reach the middle of the target range until the end of 2025, later than previously thought, as it was initially expected to do so by mid-year.

Expectations for Australian consumer inflation fell to 4.3% in March 2024 from 4.5% in February, indicating the lowest level since October 2021 amid signs that domestic price pressures continue to ease. Australian retail sales rose by 0.3% month-on-month in February 2024, slowing sharply from a 1.1% increase in the previous month and below market forecasts of 0.4%. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (AU200) closed at 7,897 on Thursday, hitting new record highs. Mining stocks led the gains amid higher gold, iron ore, and lithium prices. The interest rate-sensitive banking, real estate, and retail sectors also rose as softer-than-expected domestic inflation data bolstered bets for a rate cut in the second half of 2024.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,248.49 +44.91 (+0.86%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,760.08 +477.75 (+1.22%)

DAX (DE40) 18,477.09 +92.74 (+0.50%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,931.98 +1.02 (+0.01%)

USD Index 104.37 +0.08 (+0.07%)

• – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• – UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
• – US GDP (q/q) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – Canada GDP (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
• – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).
• – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By JustMarkets

As of Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.08%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.28%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.42%.

On Tuesday, stock indices gave up early gains and suffered moderate losses. Nvidia (NVDA) fell more than 2%, causing chip maker stocks to fall, which impacted the overall market. Eight of the eleven sectors ended trading lower. The US economic news on Tuesday was mixed for stocks, with new capital goods orders rising more than expected in February, but the US consumer confidence index unexpectedly declined.

Tesla (TSLA) closed higher by more than 2% after it was revealed that Italy’s Ministry of Industry has contacted the company about the potential production of electric trucks.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.67% and set a new all-time high, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed Tuesday up 0.41%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.36%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.17%.

The GfK Consumer Confidence Index for April in Germany rose by 1.4 to 27.4, stronger than expectations of 28.0. ECB Governing Council spokesman Müller said the data over the coming weeks may be enough to confirm a slowdown in inflation by the time ECB policymakers set borrowing costs in June.

The Swiss franc fell to 0.9 per US dollar in late March, the lowest in nearly five months, amid contrasting monetary policies from the Swiss National Bank and the Federal Reserve. The SNB cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 1.5% at its March meeting, surprising markets that had expected it to hold, the first rate cut among major central banks since global disinflation began in 2023. In addition to the rate cut, the SNB sharply revised its inflation forecast for Switzerland downward, with policymakers expecting inflation to stay below 1.5% in the near term despite the government ending utility subsidies.

Sweden’s Riksbank will hold a monetary policy meeting today. The Riksbank is expected to leave rates unchanged at this meeting, but traders will be hoping for hints that a rate cut will come in June or even earlier.

WTI crude prices fell to $81 a barrel on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session. A large increase in US crude inventories raised demand concerns in the world’s top oil consumer. Industry data showed that US crude inventories rose by 9.337 million barrels last week, a reversal from the previous week’s 1.519 million barrel decline and the biggest weekly increase since February last year.

Asian markets were mostly down. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) lost 0.40%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 0.69%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended yesterday up 0.88% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.41%.

Softer-than-expected Australian inflation data bolstered bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may start cutting interest rates this summer. The data showed that Australia’s monthly consumer price index for February 2024 came in at 3.4%, unchanged from the previous two months and missing forecasts for a slight rise to 3.5%.

The Japanese yen’s gradual decline toward 152 per dollar for the first time since 1990 was enough for Japan’s finance minister to immediately warn of “decisive steps” to tame “disorderly” moves. He last uttered those words before the central bank intervened at the end of 2022 to support the yen. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said Wednesday that supporting the economy with an accommodative monetary policy is now essential.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,203.58 −14.61 (−0.28%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,282.33 −31.31 (−0.08%)

DAX (DE40) 18,384.35 +123.04 (+0.67%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,930.96 +13.39 (+0.17%)

USD Index 104.30 +0.07 (+0.07%)

• – Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.41% as of Monday’s stock market close. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.31%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.27%. Stock indices declined moderately on Monday as some hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve pushed T-note yields up and stocks lower. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that if the economy performs as expected, the Fed can be patient with interest rates, and he expects only one 25 bps rate cut this year. Bostic’s prediction is less than the three 25 bps rate cuts the FOMC has scheduled for this year. Fed spokeswoman Cook said yesterday that a cautious approach to monetary easing may be needed to restore price stability and that cutting interest rates too quickly could risk entrenching inflation. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 13% for the next FOMC meeting on May 1 and 79% for the June 12 meeting.

Take-Two Interactive Software closed down more than 6% after gaming publication Kotaku reported that Grand Theft Auto VI production has begun to be delayed, and the game may not be released in 2025. Shares of United Airlines Holdings (UAL) fell more than 3% after a report that the US Federal Aviation Administration is considering imposing temporary sanctions on the company, including a ban on adding new routes, following a series of safety incidents. In addition, Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares fell after the Financial Times reported that China is seeking to restrict US-made microprocessors and servers in government computers.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.30%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed Monday at its opening price, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.08%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.17%. Frankfurt’s DAX (DE40) reached another record high of 18,268, gaining from the previous week and benefitting from dovish cues from major central banks. Increasing sentiment that policymakers are leaning towards rate cuts has led money markets to price in nearly a whole percentage point of ECB rate cuts this year ahead of the ECB meeting in early April. Automakers’ trading in Frankfurt rose sharply, with BMW and Volkswagen adding 2% and 1%, respectively, while Mercedes and Continental ended in the green territory. In addition, Allianz added more than 1%, leading to a positive session for the financial sector.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $82 per barrel on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session, as various supply concerns supported oil prices. The Russian government ordered oil companies to cut production in the second quarter to meet OPEC’s target of 9 million bpd after output of around 9.5 million bpd in February. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have also affected about 12% of the country’s refining capacity. In the Middle East, the UN Security Council passed a resolution calling for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. However, analysts doubt this will stop Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea disrupting supply routes.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 1.16%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 1.03%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 0.93% at the end of Monday, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.53%.

Japan’s annual business services inflation was unchanged at 2.1% in February, suggesting that companies continue to pass on rising labor costs to consumers thanks to the prospect of sustained wage growth. The annual increase in the service producer price index, which measures how much companies charge each other for services, was unchanged from January, data from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) showed Tuesday. Japan’s Finance Minister Shun’ichi Suzuki said he did not rule out taking any measures to curb yen weakness, adding that excessive volatility increases uncertainty for business operations and the broader economy. The remarks came a day after the country’s top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, said the weakening yen did not reflect fundamentals and called recent moves speculative.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,218.19 −15.99 (−0.31%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,313.64 −162.26 (−0.41%)

DAX (DE40) 18,261.31 +55.37 (+0.30%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,917.57 −13.35 (−0.17%)

USD Index 104.23 −0.20 (−0.19%)

• – Eurozone GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

At Friday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.77% (for the week +1.67%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.14% (for the week +1.54%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.16% (for the week +1.70%).

Lululemon Athletica shares closed down more than 15% on Friday after warning of a slowdown in US store visits and forecasting 2025 net revenue below consensus. Nike (NKE) also closed down more than 6% after warning of low single-digit sales declines in the first half of the fiscal year. Additionally, Tesla’s shares (TSLA) fell more than 1% after Bloomberg reported that the company cut vehicle production at a plant in China. FedEx (FDX) shares are up more than 7% after the company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share above consensus and announced a $5 billion share repurchase plan. Additionally, shares of Nvidia (NVSA) are up more than 3% after UBS raised its price target on the company’s stock to $1,100 from $800.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.15% (for the week +1.50%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.34% on Friday (for the week -0.29%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.70% (for the week +3.27%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.61% (for the week +2.63%).

The IFO German business climate survey for March rose by 2.1 to a 9-month high of 87.8, stronger than expectations of 86.0. Nagel, a spokesman for the ECB’s governing council and president of the Bundesbank, said the likelihood that the ECB would cut interest rates for the first time “before the summer break” in August is growing. Still, investors should not conclude that the same will happen at every subsequent meeting.

On Friday, silver prices were pressured by the negative impact of copper prices falling to 1-week lows amid signs of weakness in Chinese industrial metals demand, as demand for metals during the peak of China’s construction season falls short of expectations.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 6.07%, Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.05% in 5 trading days, Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.14% last week, and Australian ASX 200 (AU200) closed positive for the week 1.31%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index (JP225) opened lower on Monday as investors booked profits after the benchmark recently hit record highs. A senior Japanese finance official expressed doubts about the US dollar’s recent appreciation against the Japanese yen, fueling speculation of possible market intervention. The yen fell sharply last week even after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years and ended eight years of negative rates in what was seen by markets as a well-crafted decision. The central bank also abandoned its yield curve adjustment policy, stopped buying ETFs and J-REITs, and reduced bond purchases. Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will maintain an accommodative stance for some time, keeping rates at 0%.

Chinese stocks have been rising since the market opened on Monday. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Sunday that Beijing will step up policy measures to support the economic recovery. He also cited China’s relatively low consumer prices and the central government’s manageable debt levels as opportunities to expand macroeconomic policies.

The historic end of ultra-easy monetary policy in Japan and a surprise rate hike in Taiwan have boosted the yuan’s appeal as a funding currency for global trading of emerging market currencies. The yuan has become a more affordable funding option as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is in easing mode. While the yen remains the lowest-yielding currency in the world despite the Bank of Japan’s rejection of negative rates, heightened expectations of its rise and volatility could deter borrowers. The Chinese yuan currently compares more favorably to the Taiwan dollar on these metrics and is more attractive than the US dollar in terms of both implied yield and volatility.

Singapore’s annual inflation rate for February 2024 rose to 3.4% from a more than two-year low of 2.9% in the previous month, compared with market forecasts of 3.3%, mainly due to faster growth in housing and food prices. Core inflation rose to a seven-month high of 3.6% in February from January’s 23-month low of 3.1%, beating forecasts for a 3.4% increase. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices rose by 1.0% in February, the highest in 15 months. The Ministry of Commerce and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) predict core and core inflation to average between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2024.

Malaysia’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly rose to 1.8% in February 2024 from 1.5% in the previous month, beating market predictions of 1.4%. This was the highest rate since October last year. Core consumer prices, excluding volatile fresh food prices and administrative costs, rose to 1.8% y/y, in line with the pace of growth in January.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,234.18 −7.35 (−0.14%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,475.90 −305.47 (−0.77%)

DAX (DE40) 18,205.94 +26.69 (+0.15%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,930.92 +48.37 (+0.61%)

USD Index 104.43 +1.00 (+0.96%)

• – Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2);
• – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:00 (GMT+2).
• – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 14:25 (GMT+2);
• – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Cook Speaks at 17:20 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

At Thursday’s close of the stock exchange, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.68%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.32%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.20%. Stocks continued Wednesday’s rally on Thursday, with all three major US indices hitting new all-time highs. Stocks rose amid forecasts for a Fed rate cut this year after the FOMC maintained its projections for a 75 bps interest rate cut this year on Wednesday. Stock indices also found support amid stronger-than-expected US economic reports suggesting the US economy is resilient, bolstering prospects for a soft landing for the economy.

US weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell from 2,000 to 210,000, indicating a strengthening labor market compared to expectations of a rise to 213,000. S&P Manufacturing PMI for March rose by 0.3 to a 2-year high of 52.5, stronger than expectations for a decline to 51.8. US home sales for February unexpectedly rose 9.5% to 4.38 million, stronger than expected for a decrease to 3.95 million.

Broadcom (AVGO) shares are up more than 5% after Cowen upgraded the stock to Outperform with a $1,500 price target. Apple’s (AAPL) stock price fell more than 4% and topped the list of losers on the Dow Jones Industrials after the US Department of Justice and 16 attorneys general sued the company, accusing it of violating antitrust laws.

Equity markets in Europe rose steadily yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) added 0.91%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.22%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 1.07%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 1.88%.

The Bank of England (BOE) voted 8:1 to keep the official bank rate at 5.25%, with BOE Governor Bailey stating that the bank “has not yet reached the point where we can cut interest rates.” GfK’s UK consumer confidence indicator unexpectedly came in at 21 in March 2024, unchanged from February and missing market expectations for a slight improvement to 19 as the cost of living crisis and broader economic uncertainty continue to dampen sentiment.

The Swiss franc fell sharply against the dollar and other currencies following the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.50% at its March meeting on Thursday. The SNB decided to cut interest rates in response to a significant decline in inflation and growth over the past year. The SNB expects inflation to average 1.9% in 2024. Inflation is currently well below this forecast at 1.2%.

WTI crude futures fell to around $80.5 a barrel on Friday, declining for the third consecutive session, as the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza that could ease supply concerns weighed on oil prices. The US is ready to bring a draft UN resolution calling for an immediate and sustained ceasefire in Gaza to a Security Council vote on Friday. The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also said Thursday that he believes peace talks in Qatar can succeed.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.03%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.51% on Thursday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.93% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.12%.

The offshore yuan weakened to 7.25 per dollar, falling to its lowest level in four months on bets that China will further ease policy to support the economy. A senior central bank official recently said the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has room to further reduce banks’ reserve requirement ratios and other policy tools. Investors await data on manufacturing and services activity in China in the coming weeks to gauge the health of the world’s second-largest economy.

The New Zealand dollar slid to US $0.60, falling to its lowest level in four months, as the US dollar rebounded amid growing expectations that US interest rates could remain elevated for longer even as they begin to fall in other major economies. There were also hopes that the RBNZ may cut the official money rate sooner than forecast as the economy is in a technical recession following an unexpected contraction in Q4 GDP.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,241.53 +16.91 (+0.32%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,781.37 +269.24 (+0.68%)

DAX (DE40) 18,179.25 +164.12 (+0.91%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,882.55 +145.17 (+1.88%)

USD Index 104.01 +0.57 (+0.55%)

• – Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
• – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – German Ifo Business Climate Index (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 15:00 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 22:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.