Archive for Economics & Fundamentals – Page 58

Philly schools are in disrepair − the municipal bond market is 1 big reason

By David I. Backer, West Chester University of Pennsylvania 

Graphic reading '43 cents is the share of every dollar loaned to repair Philly schools that is actually spent'
The Conversation, CC BY

Many of Philadelphia’s schools are in terrible shape. The average public school building in the city is over 70 years old, and some are over 120 years old. The state of disrepair, including a lack of air conditioning and incidents of untreated asbestos, mold, crumbling ceilings and flooded hallways, is well documented.

I am a scholar of school finance, with an emphasis on infrastructure. My colleague Camika Royal, who’s an expert on urban education and Philadelphia schools, and I wanted to figure out why the city’s school buildings are like this.

We found that one key figure explains the dire state of the city’s school buildings: Only 43 cents of every dollar loaned to the School District of Philadelphia in recent decades to maintain and repair its buildings was actually spent.

In other words, a majority of the money – the other 57 cents per dollar – meant for building and maintaining Philly schools during the nearly 30-year period we studied, from 1993 to 2021, never actually reached Philly schools.

This is not due to money going missing. Rather, it is an indicator of the overall inefficiency of how maintenance and repairs to Philly’s public school facilities are financed.

Our analysis was published in the June 2024 edition of the peer-reviewed Journal of Educational Administration and History.

Reliance on Wall Street

Pennsylvania, unlike states such as Massachusetts and Wyoming that have robust policies for financing school infrastructure, does not have a statewide program that provides sufficient revenue for school facilities.

The commonwealth’s PlanCon program, for instance, which had reimbursed districts for building costs, was defunded in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. It hasn’t been fully restored.

While Gov. Josh Shapiro signed the Public School Facility Improvement Grant Program into law in 2024 to provide grants for school buildings statewide, the program – funded with US$100 million – is pitifully small. Philly’s school buildings alone need at least $7 billion for repairs and upgrades, according to Superintendent Tony Watlington.

To get the money it needs for its buildings and infrastructure, the School District of Philadelphia has to sell itself as an investment product on Wall Street. This is done through municipal bonds.

Municipal bonds are basically big loans for local governments’ capital projects.

Investors purchase these municipal bonds because they can make tax-free income when the school district pays them back with interest.

Financial consultants, credit raters, bond lawyers and private banks all benefit from this system as well, since they charge fees for the services helping investors front their money to school districts.

Market mayhem

The municipal bond market is subject to the erratic, competitive and unstable tendencies of Wall Street finance.

Imagine a rusty, outdated plumbing system that’s supposed to get water from a reservoir to a community. While the reservoir might have a lot of water in it, if the pipes are poorly designed and leaking, or the reservoir itself is badly maintained, much less water can get to the community than might be available. It could be that for every 100 gallons of water available, the community gets only 43 gallons.

Looking at the financial history of the school district’s relationship to the municipal bond market from 1993 to 2021, we found two main reasons for the failure of this funding model.

The first is the chaos in credit markets from 1993 to 2001.

In 1986, the Tax Reform Act regulated private banks, making it harder for them to buy and sell private activity bonds, and also taxed interest on certain bonds. This prompted many banks to pull out of that market, reducing their share of municipal debt by 15%. Credit supply went down, demand went up, and so did prices – making it more expensive for municipalities like Philadelphia to borrow.

Then, in 1987, the savings and loan crisis caused state budgets to contract nationally by 5%. This reduced Philadelphia School District revenue, making it more difficult to repay previous bonds while also necessitating further lending.

The second key reason relates to predatory investing strategies that lawmakers and the financial industry use to secure money for the district’s buildings.

After deregulating the kinds of bonds that local governments could sell in 2003, Pennsylvania took control of the Philadelphia School District’s finances. Under the leadership of former Superintendent Paul Vallas, the district used risky and predatory market instruments that ultimately led to a $330 million loss in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

Green New Deal for schools

An efficient policy for financing school infrastructure would yield a number closer to a dollar spent for every dollar received in loans. We conclude our paper with recommendations for policies we believe would be more efficient and just.

These include setting up a National Infrastructure Bank at the federal level that would provide appropriate loan financing for collective goods such as school infrastructure. Also, U.S. Rep. Jamaal Bowman of New York has proposed a Green New Deal for Schools that would provide more than $1 trillion in grants for social and physical infrastructure.The Conversation

About the Author:

David I. Backer, Associate Professor of Education Policy, West Chester University of Pennsylvania

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Indices rise amid lower inflation in the US. Oil returned to decline due to reduced tension in the Middle East

By JustMarkets

At the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index gained 0.61%, and the S&P 500 (US500) Index closed with an increase of 10.38%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday positive 0.03%. Stocks found support on Wednesday after the US CPI report for July came in slightly weaker than expected, reinforcing the likelihood that the Fed will cut interest rates next month.

Wednesday’s US CPI report for July eased speculation that the Fed will cut rates by 50 bps next month instead of 25 bps. US CPI for July fell to 2.9% y/y from 3.0% y/y, slightly better than expectations of no change at 3.0% y/y and the lowest annualized growth in over three years. The July core CPI excluding food and energy, fell to 3.2% y/y from 3.3% y/y in June, matching expectations and the smallest annualized gain in over 3 years.

According to data compiled by Bloomberg, most of the companies that reported beat consensus on earnings, but only 43% beat revenue expectations, the lowest in five years.

Alphabet (GOOG) shares fell by 2.3% yesterday following a report that the US Department of Justice is considering options, including a possible company separation.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.37 per US dollar, hitting a near one-month high, while the US dollar weakened to one-year lows after softer-than-expected inflation data. Meanwhile, Canada’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.4% in July, the highest in two and a half years, indicating a weakening labor market.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.41%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.79%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.27%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.56%.

The FTSE 100 (UK100) Index rose 0.79% on Wednesday as UK Consumer Price Inflation for July rose less than expected, reinforcing expectations of a Bank of England rate cut. All sectors rose except for mining, which fell nearly 1% as sentiment weakened due to a larger-than-expected credit contraction in China.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.7%, marking a second straight day of losses following President Biden’s comments that Iran may not attack Israel if a ceasefire in Gaza is reached. A new round of ceasefire talks is due to begin Thursday in Qatar, but Hamas said the group does not intend to participate in the talks. Also, the EIA reported an unexpected rise in US crude inventories, with a 1.357 million barrel increase last week, ending a six-week decline and defeating expectations of a 2 million barrel drop.

The US natural gas prices (XNGUSD) rose more than 5% to $2.27/MMBtu on Wednesday, the highest in about a month, thanks to lower production and prognoses of hotter weather in late August. The hotter weather is expected to increase the use of air conditioners, boosting gas demand.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.58%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.35%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.31%.

The offshore yuan weakened to 7.16 per dollar, retreating from a one-week high, as traders reacted to mixed economic data from China. In the real estate sector, new home prices in 70 major cities fell 4.9 percent from a year earlier in July 2024, the sharpest decline since June 2015 and underscoring the deepening real estate crisis despite Beijing’s efforts to stabilize the sector. Industrial production also showed signs of weakness, with growth slowing to 5.1% in July from 5.3% in the previous month, the weakest since March. In addition, the unemployment rate rose to 5.2% in July after remaining at 5% for the previous three months. On a more positive note, retail sales rose, which increased at a 2.7% annualized rate in July, up from 2% in June, marking the 18th consecutive month of retail sales growth. Overall, the latest data paints a complex picture of China’s economic trajectory, heightening concerns and calling into question the strength of the country’s economic recovery.

The Australian dollar climbed above $0.66, resuming its recent rally as investors reacted to mixed reports on the country’s economy. A private survey showed that expectations for consumer inflation in Australia rose to 4.5% in August from 4.3% in July, the highest since April. Meanwhile, the country’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.2% in July, the highest in two and a half years.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,455.21 +20.78 (+0.38%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,008.39 +242.75 (+0.61%)

DAX (DE40) 17,885.60 +73.55 (+0.41%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,281.05 +45.82 (+0.56%)

USD index 102.59 +0.03 (+0.03%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan GDP (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Norwegian Norges Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Account of Monetary Policy Meeting (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Harker Speaks at 20:10 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

RBNZ unexpectedly decreased the rate by 0.25%. Today the focus of investors is directed to the data on the inflation of the US and the UK

By JustMarkets

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index gained 1.04%, while the S&P 500 (US500) Index closed 1.68% higher. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday at a positive 2.43%. Stocks found support on Tuesday thanks to lower bond yields after US producer prices for July rose less than expected, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates next month. Strengthening in semiconductor stocks and technology mega majors on Tuesday also supported gains in the overall market. In addition, Starbucks closed higher by more than 24% following the appointment of a new CEO.

The July US FMCG price index declined to 2.2% y/y from 2.7% y/y in June, less than expectations of 2.3% y/y. Additionally, the July food and energy price index declined to 2.4% y/y from 3.0% y/y in June, better than expectations of 2.6% y/y.

On Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic made dovish comments that supported stocks, stating that he would likely be willing to support a Fed rate cut. Markets are awaiting the release of Wednesday’s consumer price report, which should also help clarify the likely timing and size of any Fed interest rate cut. The July CPI is expected to be unchanged from June at 3.0% y/y, while the core July CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to decline to 3.2% y/y from 3.3% y/y in June. Indicators that show only a slight cooling could reinforce fears that the Fed has derailed the economy by leaving rates at high levels for too long. This would increase recession fears, which could cause new volatility in the market and trigger more stock index sell-offs. The strong upward surprise would be worse for the market, as the Fed could not quickly reduce the rate even though the economy lost growth.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.48%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.35%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.73%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.30%.

Frankfurt’s DAX (DE40) index marked its sixth consecutive session in the green on Tuesday with strong support from technology and industrial giants. In spite of this, the indicator of economic confidence ZEW fell stronger than expected, as in the Eurozone and Germany, strengthening the danger of the economy’s growth.

WTI crude futures fell below $79 a barrel on Tuesday, breaking a five-day winning streak. Traders weighed the potential glut amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. A monthly report from the International Energy Agency showed inventory drawdowns would weaken in the final quarter, and OPEC cut demand forecasts for this year and next. Due to weak demand in China, OPEC cut its 2023 demand growth forecast by 135,000 barrels a day and lowered its 2025 growth forecast to 1.78 million barrels a day.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 3.45%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) closed at its opening level, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.36% over yesterday and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.17%.

The New Zealand dollar fell by 1.1% to around $0.60 on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut interest rates. The RBNZ cut the official money rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, the first cut since March 2020. The central bank said price pressures are easing and expects annual inflation to return to a target range of 1% to 3% in the third quarter. The bank cautioned that policy should remain restrictive for some time but still forecasts the money rate at 4.92% by the end of the year and 3.85% by the end of 2025.

The Australian dollar is at three-week highs as it weakened on lower-than-expected US producer inflation data, which boosted bets on more aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Aussie also rose against the Kiwi after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised markets by cutting its money rate.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,434.43 +90.04 (+1.68%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,765.64 +408.63 (+1.04%)

DAX (DE40) 17,812.05 +85.58 (+0.48%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,235.23 +24.98 (+0.30%)

USD index 102.62 −0.52 (−0.50%)

Important events for today:
  • – New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – New Zealand RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

WTI crude oil prices rise for the 5th day in a row. Australian dollar rises amid strong economic data

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was down 0.36%, while the S&P 500 (US500) Index closed at its opening level. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positively, 0.21%. Strengthening chip stocks supported the overall market, led by Nvidia’s (NVDA) 4% gain. Additionally, energy stocks rose, with the price of WTI crude oil up more than +%.

This week, markets await US producer and consumer price reports, which should help clarify the likely timing and size of any Fed interest rate cut. On Tuesday, July’s PPI is expected to decline to 2.3% y/y from 2.6% y/y in June, while July’s core PPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to decline to 2.7% y/y from 3.0% y/y in June. On Wednesday, July’s CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 3.0% y/y from June, while July’s core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to decline to 3.2% y/y from 3.3% y/y in June. Markets rate the odds of a 25bp rate cut at the September 18 FOMC meeting at 100% and a 50bp rate cut at 57%.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.02%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.26%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.07%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.52%.

WTI crude futures rose by 4.2% to close at $80.06 a barrel on Monday, rising for a fifth straight day amid an escalating conflict in the Middle East that threatens to cut global oil supplies. The Pentagon is beefing up its military presence in the region, with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordering the deployment of an aircraft carrier strike group and additional forces in response to potential Iranian aggression against Israel. OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 to 2.11 million bpd from 2.25 million, citing weak data and weaker demand in China. OPEC+ extended production cuts through September with a phase-out in October.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.56%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 0.05%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.13%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.46%.

India’s annualized consumer inflation rate fell sharply to 3.54% in July 2024 from 5.08% in the previous month, well below market expectations of 3.65%, marking the softest rise in consumer prices since August 2019. Inflation fell below the RBI’s target range of 4% for the first time in nearly five years, although the sharp decline was largely due to a large base effect in food prices, and the Central Bank does not expect price growth to remain as low for the rest of the year.

The Australian dollar rose to $0.66, near its highest level in three weeks, as risk sentiment continued to improve and investors digested mostly positive reports on the domestic economy. Data showed that consumer confidence in Australia rose sharply in August as tax cuts lifted sentiment, although concerns about the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance dampened sentiment. Business confidence also rose in July, while wages rose less than expected in the second quarter.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will hold a monetary policy meeting as early as tomorrow. Economists do not expect any changes, but there is a growing consensus among economists that the RBNZ will announce a 25bp cut in the cash rate. 12 of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the Reserve Bank to keep the official money rate at 5.5%, but nine predict it will start the easing cycle. Further supporting the case for policy easing was the RBNZ’s survey of inflation expectations, which showed the lowest level of expectations in more than three years. A rate cut would result in a weaker New Zealand dollar. If policymakers decide not to cut rates, they are expected to open the door for a move to the two remaining 2024 decisions. However, it will give the New Zealand dollar an advantage over other currencies, where central banks have already started a downward cycle (EUR, GBP, CAD).

S&P 500 (US500) 5,344.39 +0.23 (+0.0043%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,357.01 −140.53 (−0.36%)

DAX (DE40) 17,726.47 +3.59 (+0.02%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,210.25 +42.15 (+0.52%)

USD Index 103.13 −0.01 (−0.01%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Wage Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 20:15 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

European gas prices jump to an 8-month high. Canada’s labor market is cooling down

By JustMarkets

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) was up 0.13% (for the week+1.17%), while the S&P 500 (US500) was up 0.47% (for the week+3.75%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.51% (for the week+6.57%). That day, all sectors ended trading in positive territory except for commodities. Notable highlights included Expedia, whose shares rose by 10.2% after the company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations.

Canada’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.4%, the highest in two and a half years. While the data came in slightly below market expectations, it did indicate a weakening labor market. The cooling labor market, as well as the continued contraction of the manufacturing sector and sluggish economic growth, further fueled expectations of further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BoC).

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.24% (for the week +1.13%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.31% higher (for the week +2.40%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.76% (for the week +2.26%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.28% higher (for the week -0.08%).

Norway’s annualized consumer inflation rate rose to 2.8% in July 2024 from a three-and-a-half-year low of 2.6% in June, which is in line with market expectations. This increases the likelihood that Norway’s Central Bank (Norges Bank) will leave rates unchanged at this week’s meeting.

European natural gas futures are trading near an 8-month high of €40/MWh. They are on track for a 9% weekly gain, driven by concerns over the stability of gas supplies after Ukrainian troops took control of the Suja gas transportation station in Russia’s Kursk region. Despite ongoing conflicts around this key transit point, Russian gas continues to flow through Ukraine. As the gas transit agreement expires at the end of the year, any early disruption could have a significant impact on Central European countries that depend on these supplies.

Oil prices rose last week as comments from Fed officials about the possibility of a rate cut as early as September eased demand concerns, while fears of widening conflict in the Middle East continue to increase supply risks. For the week, Brent crude rose more than 3.5% and WTI crude rose more than 4%. Concerns about the prospect of recession have subsided, boosting the demand outlook.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.64%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.18%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 2.48% over 5 trading days, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 2.08%.

In New Zealand, investors await the RBNZ’s decision on Wednesday. The Central Bank is expected to keep its monetary rate unchanged at 5.5% for the ninth consecutive time, although concerns about the economy’s strength remain. The latest data showed New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose less than estimated in the second quarter. However, inflation expectations fell to three-year lows in the third quarter, bolstering the case for a rate cut.

The offshore yuan weakened to 7.18 per dollar as traders await the release of key economic data from China. Traders are eagerly awaiting data on outstanding loan growth, new yuan loans and M2 money supply for the year to be released today. Industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment rate data are also expected later in the week. This expectation follows last week’s reports that showed an unexpected acceleration in China’s annual inflation rate, which beat market expectations and reached the highest level since February.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,344.16 +24.85 (+0.47%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,497.54 +51.05 (+0.13%)

DAX (DE40) 17,722.88 +42.48 (+0.24%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,168.10 +23.13 (+0.28%)

USD index 103.15 −0.06 (−0.05%)

There are no Important events today.

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The Bank of Mexico unexpectedly cut its interest rate. China’s consumer inflation is on the rise

By JustMarkets

At Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) was up 1.76%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.30%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 2.87% on Thursday. Stocks rose on Thursday after the weekly number of US initial jobless claims fell more than expected, indicating the strength of the labor market and easing economic concerns following last Friday’s weaker-than-expected July payrolls report. In addition, chip stocks recovered some of Wednesday’s losses and rallied sharply on Thursday, boosting the overall market.

Bitcoin rose more than 10% and surpassed the $61,000 mark, hitting a one-week high. Earlier this week, bitcoin fell to nearly $49,000 as fears of a US recession and the unwinding of yen deals triggered a global sell-off in risky assets. Cryptocurrencies and other risk assets are gradually returning, as analysts say the sell-off was an overreaction. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have also seen massive inflows in recent sessions after Morgan Stanley allowed financial advisers to recommend Bitcoin ETFs to clients.

On Thursday, analysts expressed shock over the Mexican central bank’s decision to cut interest rates on the same day that official data showed a sharp rise in domestic inflation. The Bank of Mexico cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25% to 10.75% in August 2024, defying market expectations amid ongoing economic concerns. Global economic growth is expected to slow, and inflation in advanced economies is generally expected to decline. There was significant market volatility in Mexico, driven by the depreciation of the peso (USD/MXN) and rising government bond yields. Meanwhile, annual core inflation rose from 5.10% in June to 5.57% in July, mainly due to non-core inflation, while core inflation declined from 4.05% to 4.00%.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.37%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.26%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.39%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.27% on Thursday.

The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices eased losses and are trading near $2.1/MMBtu after the EIA reported a smaller-than-expected increase in storage inventories. The US utilities added 21 billion cubic feet of gas to storage last week, slightly below the market forecast of 22 billion cubic feet. According to the report, gas in storage is 14.9% above the 5-year average, down from 39% in March and 19% in June. Meanwhile, major US natural gas producers are planning further production cuts in the second half of 2024

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.74%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.36%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended Thursday up 0.08%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.23%. Hong Kong stocks soared nearly 2% in early trading on Friday, rising for a third day as investors reacted to fresh data from China. Consumer prices in the country rose to 0.5% y/y in July, beating forecasts of 0.3% amid Beijing’s efforts to stimulate consumption. Meanwhile, producer prices fell by 0.8%, below the forecast of a 0.9% drop. In addition, there were signs that some global investors viewed China’s markets as a safe haven after Monday’s sell-off.

The Australian dollar rose to $0.66, hitting a two-week high, as easing fears of a US recession spurred gains in risk assets. The Australian dollar received support from hawkish central bank statements. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michelle Bullock said they would not hesitate to raise interest rates again to fight inflation. She warned that Australia’s economic outlook remains highly uncertain and that the Board should remain vigilant against upside risks to inflation.

A summary of views from the Bank of Japan’s July policy meeting showed that some members favored raising rates further, with one saying they should eventually be brought to at least 1 percent.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,199.50 −40.53 (−0.77%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,763.45 −234.21 (−0.60%)

DAX (DE40) 17,615.15 +260.83 (+1.50%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,166.88 +140.19 (+1.75%)

USD Index 103.20 +0.24 (+0.23%)

Important events today:
  • – China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Week Ahead: US30 index still sensitive to US recession fears

By ForexTime 

  • Markets still obsessed with deciphering US recession risks
  • Home Depot, Walmart earnings offer pulse on US economy
  • Latest US inflation data also holds clues about Fed’s next moves
  • Economically-sensitive US30 stock index ready to punch above 50-day SMA resistance

 

Markets are still obsessed about the risks of a US recession.

Traders and investors worldwide are still licking their wounds from the recent plunge across global financial markets, following last Friday’s unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate (4.3% in July).

Against such a backdrop, next week’s US economic data and US earnings releases could shift market expectations surrounding a US recession, and whether the Fed will be forced to cut rates aggressively.

 

Tuesday, August 13

  • JPY: Japan July PPI
  • AUD: Australia August consumer and business confidence
  • GBP: UK June unemployment, July jobless claims
  • GER40 index: Germany August ZEW survey expectations
  • ZAR: South Africa 2Q unemployment
  • USD index: US July PPI; speech by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic
  • US30 index: Home Depot earnings

Wednesday, August 14

  • NZD: RBNZ rate decision
  • UK100 index: UK July CPI
  • EU50 index: Eurozone 2Q GDP, June industrial production
  • ZAR: South Africa June retail sales
  • US500 index: US July CPI

Thursday, August 15

  • JP225 index: Japan 2Q GDP
  • AU2000 index: Australia July unemployment
  • CNH: China July home prices, industrial production, retail sales, jobless rate
  • GBP: UK 2Q GDP; June industrial production, trade balance
  • NOK: Norway rate decision
  • RUS2000 index: US weekly initial jobless claims; July retail sales and industrial production
  • US30 index: Walmart earnings; speeches by St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker
  • CHINAH index: Earnings from Alibaba, JD.com

Friday, August 16

  • SG20 index: Singapore July exports
  • GBP: UK July retail sales
  • TWN index: Taiwan 2Q GDP
  • US400 index: US August consumer sentiment; speech by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

 

For the coming week, we focus on the US30 stock index.

After all, the share prices of the 30 companies contained within this stock index are deemed to be more reflective of real economic conditions (as opposed to say growth/tech/AI stocks).

Hence, the imminent earnings releases by these major companies, along with the incoming top-tier economic data, could contribute to outsized trading opportunities for this stock index next week.

The events highlighted below may well determine if the US30 index can conquer its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) resistance that it’s battled with all week long.

US30 index battles 50-day SMA resistance

 

 

1) Tuesday, August 13th: Home Depot earnings (before US markets open)

The Home Depot is the world’s largest home improvement specialty retailer, operating over 2,300 stores across North America (including Canada and Mexico).

In other words …

Home Depot’s earnings are reflective of the strength of consumer spending.

Markets are set to interpret this retail giant’s earnings for signs if consumer spending is still resilient, or whether households are already reeling from high interest rates, persistent inflation, and recession fears.

Depending on the earnings release, markets forecast this stock could move by 5.5%, either up or down, once US markets reopen on Tuesday, just hours after the company’s earnings are released.

Home Depot accounts for 5.8% of the US30 index, making it the 4th biggest stock on the Dow Jones Industrial Average index / Dow / FXTM’s US30 index.

That means the market’s reaction to Home Depot’s earnings could sway the broader US30 index in tandem.

Note that Tuesday also features the release of the US producer price index (PPI) and a speech by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, either of which could also sway the US30 index, in addition to Home Depot’s earnings.

 

 

2) Wednesday, August 14th: US July consumer price index (CPI)

The CPI is a widely followed measure of inflation.

And we know that red-hot inflation has been the bane of the Federal Reserve in recent years, though the US central bank has since made substantial progress in quelling it.

However, has it been enough? Or will the Fed be forced to maintain its benchmark rates at its current 23-year high of 5.5%?

Economists predict a soft and manageable uplift to the incoming CPI figures:

  • CPI month-on-month (July 2024 vs. June 2024): 0.2%
    (if so, that would be a return to positive territory from June’s -0.1% month-on-month figure)
  • CPI core (excluding food and energy prices) month-on-month: 0.2%
    (if so, that would be slightly higher from June’s 0.1% month-on-month figure)
  • CPI year-on-year (July 2024 vs. July 2023): 3%
    (if so, that would match June’s 3% year-on-year figure)
  • CPI core year-on-year: 3.2%
    (if so, that would be slightly lower than June’s 3.3% core year-on-year figure)

This incoming inflation data would be read as they pertain to the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, given that the US central bank now has to juggle between subduing inflation and not causing too much damage to the US jobs market, now more so in light of the recent surprise jump in US unemployment.

 

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS

  • If the CPI comes in higher than expected, that may force the Fed to hold interest rates higher still while risking more damage to the US labour market.

    Should markets then perceive greater odds for a US recession, that could send the US30 index plummeting back below its 100-day SMA and towards its 200-day SMA.

 

  • If the CPI comes in lower than expected, that should allow the Fed to lower interest rates in September to shore up support for the US labour market.

    If markets then believe that US recession risks are subsiding, that could see the US30 index rejoicing as it punches past its 50-day SMA and perhaps reaching the 40,000 mark.

 

 

3) Thursday, August 15th: Walmart earnings (before US markets open)

Walmart is a retail behemoth that serves about 255 million customers per week across some 10,500 stores, drawing over 80% of its revenue from its US customers.

Depending on what Walmart announces, markets forecast this stock could move by 5%, either up or down, once US markets reopen on Thursday, just hours after the company’s earnings are released.

Despite its sheer presence in the physical world, Walmart “merely” accounts for 1.1% of the US30 index.

Still, given how its earnings are reflective of US consumer spending habits, the market may well interpret Walmart’s earnings as an indicator of the US economic outlook.

The shifting odds of a US recession, via Walmart’s earnings, are bound to impact the US30 index’s performance as well.

Note that Thursday also features the release of the weekly US initial jobless claims, as well as July’s retail sales and industrial production data, all of which could sway the US30 index as well, on top of Walmart’s earnings.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Market “Olympics”: Best-performing financial assets so far in 2024

By ForexTime 

  • US Dollar still reigns, though perhaps not much longer
  • GBP: best-performing G10 currency vs. USD year-to-date (YTD)
  • NETH25: FXTM’s best-performing stock index YTD
  • Cocoa: FXTM’s best-performing commodity YTD
  • Nvidia: best-performing stock on the S&P 500 YTD
  • Solana: FXTM’s best-performing crypto YTD

 

We’re in the final stretch of the 2024 Olympics, set to end August 11th.

The United States is leading the Olympic medals tally after weeks of sporting conquests across disciplines and arenas.

In similar fashion, we scan across global financial markets and highlight the world champions of their respective asset classes (and within the FXTM universe), so far in 2024 (year-to-date).

 

G10 currency (vs. US dollar):

  • British Pound

Although GBPUSD is down about 0.3% so far this year, it’s still beating the rest of the G10 pack in terms of being the smallest year-to-date loser against the US dollar. Even the fast-recovering Japanese Yen remains in 6th place.

To be clear, the US Dollar index still boasts a year-to-date gain of 1.77% at the time of writing.

While King Dollar still reigns supreme, its gains may be wiped out over the rest of the year, if the Federal Reserve follows through with the aggressive US rate cuts that markets expect.

If US rates are lowered at a faster pace compared to its G10 peers, that could help push the likes of GBP into a positive year-to-date performance.

 

Stock Index:

  • NETH25

FXTM’s NETH25 stock index tracks the performance of the AEX index – the Amsterdam Exchange index.

The AEX index measures the overall performance of the 25 biggest and most actively traded shares on Euronext Amsterdam.

Led by semiconductor giant ASML – Europe’s largest tech company by market cap, also the biggest stock on the AEX index – ASML’s surge has also boosted its host index simultaneously.

Despite falling by as much as 8.9% since mid-July, amid the broader declines for global equities, the NETH25 index is still holding onto much of its gains garnered from earlier this year.

The NETH25 is still up about 11% on a year-to-date basis.

However, those year-to-date gains may be further eroded if there’s further selling across global equities amid fears of a US recession that darkens the global economic outlook, as well as lessened spending on semiconductors by AI-industry players.

 

Metal/Commodity:

  • Cocoa

This global commodity still holds a year-to-date advance of 103%, far beating the likes of gold (+16.9% YTD) and US crude oil (+5.1% YTD).

There has been a global shortage of cocoa, as evidenced by US inventories of cocoa beans falling to their lowest level in over 4 years.

However, such gains may not last.

Markets expect a recovery in west African production of cocoa to recover in the months ahead. The global cocoa market is projected to flip from a deficit into a surplus (more cocoa beans supplied than demanded by sweet-toothed consumers) next year.

With markets well aware of this outlook, no surprise that cocoa prices has only managed lower highs since April 2024, though retaining its triple-digit year-to-date gains, for now.

Overall, global commodities, from cocoa to crude oil, may well see further declines if a US recession is confirmed, along with still-sluggish Chinese economic growth, which combined to weigh down the global economy.

 

US Stock (on the S&P 500):

  • Nvidia

Much has already been made about how Nvidia has been a star performer on the US stock market in recent years.

It’s been on a seemingly unrelenting quest of posting new record highs at the height of the AI-mania, before crashing back down to earth in recent weeks.

Though having fallen by about 27% since its all-time high set on June 18th …

Nvidia still holds a year-to-date gain of nearly 100%

(99.7% to be more precise, before US markets open on August 8th).

This stock may yet recover back to its record highs, once the ongoing selloff abates.

Wall Street still predicts a 43% upside over the next 12 months, with a target price of $141.35.

If it gets there, that would be a new record high for Nvidia’s stocks in 2025, unless markets believe the artificial intelligence mania has been a lot more hype and its AI-fuelled profits have already peaked.

 

Cryptocurrency:

  • Solana

Solana’s year-to-date gains stand at 51.5% at the time of writing, exceeding Bitcoin’s YTD advance of 35%.

Given the respective debuts of Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs earlier this year, the crypto market’s attentions have now turned to other cryptocurrencies that could be next in the ETF pipeline.

ETFs = Exchange-traded funds, which can be bought and sold like regular stocks on a centralised exchange. ETFs make it easier, and more secure, for investors (both retail and institutional) to gain access to the underlying crypto without having to directly purchase the digital asset.

If the US government turns increasingly pro crypto, especially if we see a return of President Trump to the White House after the November US Presidential elections, then cryptocurrencies stand to be restored to their recent peaks respectively.

Solana bulls (those betting that prices will rise) will be hoping that their favoured crypto could move back closer to the psychologically-important $200 level.

 

It remains to be seen which specific instrument will sit atop of their respective asset classes by the end of this year.

What’s more certain is that the remaining months of 2024 may yet bring more volatility, in light of heightened geopolitical tensions, fears of a US recession, as well as political uncertainties stemming from the US Presidential Elections.

That should produce large opportunities for traders and investors who remain alert to the macro picture across financial markets.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

RBI kept rates at 6.5%. The Canadian dollar is strengthening due to foreign currency inflows and rising oil prices

By JustMarkets

At Wednesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.60%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.77%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 1.05%. Yesterday, chip stocks gave up early gains and retreated, which had a negative impact on the overall market.

Stocks on Wednesday initially went up on positivity from a rally in Japanese stocks amid dovish comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Uchida, who pledged to refrain from raising interest rates amid volatile markets. Financial markets have been in turmoil since last week, when the BoJ unexpectedly raised interest rates, causing the yen to surge to a 7-month high against the dollar and contributing to a rapid unwinding of yen trading that pulled down risk assets around the world.

Airbnb (ABNB) closed down more than 13% after estimating third-quarter revenue of $3.67 billion to $3.73 billion, below consensus estimates of $3.84 billion, and warning of weaker demand from US vacationers. Illumina (ILMN) closed higher by more than 4% after reporting second-quarter revenue of $1.11 billion, above the consensus prognosis of $1.09 billion.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.37 per US dollar, recovering from an eight-month low of 1.388 hit on August 1, thanks to an improving outlook for foreign exchange inflows and reduced fears of a US recession, which restored global risk appetite. A recovery in oil prices, driven by a sixth consecutive week of declines in US inventories and fears of supply disruptions from the Middle East, further supported the loonie. However, the recent rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) and expectations of further easing of up to 150 basis points over the next year will create headwinds for the Canadian dollar.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.50%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.91% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 2.01%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 1.75%.

WTI crude oil prices rose to around $75.5 per barrel on Thursday, rising for the third consecutive session, driven by a larger-than-expected decline in US crude inventories. EIA data for Wednesday showed crude inventories fell by 3.728 million barrels, the sixth consecutive weekly decline, well above the expected 0.4 million barrel drop. However, gasoline and distillate inventories rose over the period.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.19%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.13%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.38%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.25%.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the benchmark repo rate at 6.5% for the ninth consecutive meeting in August 2024 to ensure inflation falls to the medium-term target of 4% while supporting growth, in line with market expectations. The latest move came after annual inflation accelerated to a four-month high of 5.08% in June 2024, driven by rising food prices, but remained within the RBI’s acceptable target range of 2–6% In addition, the Central Bank maintained its economic growth estimate for FY 2025 at 7.2%, keeping inflation expectations at 4.5%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,199.50 −40.53 (−0.77%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,763.45 −234.21 (−0.60%)

DAX (DE40) 17,615.15 +260.83 (+1.50%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,166.88 +140.19 (+1.75%)

USD Index 103.20 +0.24 (+0.23%)

Important events today:
  • – Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – New Zealand Inflation Expectations (q/q) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

This Trend Will Likely Soon Rock the U.S. Financial System

Why monetary inflation has been shrinking

By Elliott Wave International

Nearly everyone who buys groceries, fills their car tank with gas, pays rent, buys car insurance and so on is talking about the high cost of living. And it’s true that consumer price inflation is higher today than before the pandemic – although, it’s nowhere near as high as it was two years ago, when the annual inflation rate spiked to a 40-year peak of 9.1%.

Since then, the pace of inflation has slowed way down. In fact, the latest reading of the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, came in at 3%, close to the Federal Reserve’s “ideal” target of 2% a year.

But that’s price inflation. There is another measure of inflation that has to do with money supply. It’s the so-called monetary inflation, or the supply of printed money. It has also declined over the past two years and is likely set to decrease even more. And while it sounds like a good trend, it’s actually the opposite.

Here’s insight from our just-published July Elliott Wave Theorist:

Monetary inflation … is unlikely to continue. Why? because since early 2022 the Fed’s clear aim has been to reduce the size of its balance sheet. Over the past two years, the value of the Fed’s assets, representing “printed” money, has gone from $8.94 trillion to $7.22 trillion, a decline of nearly 20 percent.

The July Elliott Wave Theorist continues:

This shrinkage of base money, moreover, has taken place even as total debt has expanded. This situation cannot maintain. The dichotomy will soon rock the financial system. It’s just a matter of when.

Indeed, U.S. household debt – which is part of that “total debt” The Theorist is referring to — grew by $800 million from 2022 to 2023, including a 16.6% growth in credit card debt, according to Marketwatch.

The financial website had this headline on June 20:

Americans Are Carrying Record Household Debt into 2024

Interestingly, Washington D.C. has the highest per capita credit card debt in the country.

And speaking of the nation’s capital, out of control spending has led to a national debt of nearly $35 trillion.

As CBS News noted earlier this year (March 1):

U.S. interest payments on its debt are set to exceed defense spending.

The Congressional Budget Office projects the annual interest on the debt will hit $1.4 trillion by 2033.

And this does not even consider the huge amount of debt at the state and local levels – as well as the debt of corporations.

U.S. household debt is growing and will only get bigger. In turn, so will the scale of the news coverage about “the importance of the household debt to economic activity.” Regardless of where in the world you live or invest, staying ahead of the trends in the U.S. stock market and economy is worth your while. Elliott Wave International has a free must-read issue on U.S stocks that I suggest you check out, on www.elliottwave.com.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline This Trend Will Likely Soon Rock the U.S. Financial System. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.