InvestMacro

On Wednesday, the US stock market continued its upward rally. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.15%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.80%. The Tech Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 1.40%. A powerful growth driver came from artificial‑intelligence news: Broadcom shares rose more than 3%, and Meta shares gained nearly 2% amid a deal to deploy specialized 1‑gigawatt AI chips. Investors paid special attention to Tesla shares, which surged more than 7%. Shareholder optimism was driven by updated vehicle software and Elon Musk’s statements about significant progress in developing the advanced AI5 chip. Alongside the tech sector, the financial sector also showed strong growth: Morgan Stanley shares jumped more than 5% thanks to record revenue, and Bank of America shares added 2.5% after a strong quarterly profit report. Geopolitical news also supported overall market sentiment. Donald Trump’s statement that the active phase of the conflict with Iran is nearing its end, combined with the diplomatic mission of Pakistan’s Chief of General Staff in Tehran, strengthened hopes for a long‑term ceasefire.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened to 17.27 per dollar, reaching its highest level since late February. The main driver of growth was a combination of global optimism and strong domestic economic indicators. Investors are attracted by high real yields: with a base interest rate of 6.75% and inflation at 4.59%, Mexican assets remain highly sought after. Tight monetary policy combined with slowing consumer‑price growth creates a favorable environment for carry‑trade strategies.

On Wednesday, European stocks mostly declined. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.09%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.64%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.55%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed the session down 0.47%. The main pressure on the tech sector came from ASML Holding shares, which fell more than 4%. Despite an optimistic full‑year sales outlook, investors were disappointed by the company’s short‑term expectations: second‑quarter revenue is projected at 8.4-9 billion euros, below analysts’ consensus. Although hopes for extending the two‑week ceasefire remain, current financial reports from major European corporations still reflect the real damage caused by regional instability.

Silver prices (XAG) surpassed 80 dollars per ounce, approaching monthly highs. The main driver of growth was investor optimism regarding a possible resumption of diplomatic dialogue between Washington and Tehran. However, even with the current rise, silver prices remain nearly 15% below levels recorded before the conflict began. This indicates that the market has only partially recovered from the initial geopolitical shock.

On Wednesday, WTI oil futures held near 92 dollars per barrel, and high market volatility is likely to persist – traders are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, trying to identify signs of de‑escalation and a possible resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.44% during the session, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 0.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed up 0.29%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.09%.

China’s economy showed unexpected resilience in the first quarter of 2026, posting 5.0% year‑on‑year growth. This result not only exceeded market expectations (4.8%) but also marked a noticeable acceleration after the minimal 4.5% recorded at the end of last year. Beijing managed to effectively cushion the impact of the Middle East conflict through accumulated strategic oil reserves, diversification of energy sources, and strict state control over prices, which prevented shock volatility in the domestic market. The industrial sector remains the main driver, showing growth above the outlook’s levels. At the same time, the consumer sector signals weakness: retail sales fell short of expectations, and the unemployment rate jumped to its highest level in 13 months. This indicates that domestic demand remains fragile. The external trade balance also shifted: March saw a sharp slowdown in exports alongside a spike in imports, likely linked to rising logistics and raw‑material costs.

The Australian dollar (AUD) broke through the psychologically important level of 0.70 US dollars, reaching its highest point in nearly four years. The currency’s rise was supported by strong domestic labor‑market data: in March, the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, and the employment increase of 17.9 thousand was entirely driven by full‑time job creation. This confirms the resilience of Australia’s economy to external shocks. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish rhetoric became the second key factor strengthening the aussie. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser expressed doubt that current interest rates are restrictive enough to contain inflation, which is being fueled by high oil prices. His remarks about possible further tightening forced the market to revise projections: most economists now expect a third consecutive rate hike in May to 4.35%.

On Tuesday, the US stock market showed positive dynamics for the second session in a row. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.66%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.18%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 1.96%. The main driver of optimism was hopes for the resumption of diplomatic dialogue between Washington and Tehran, which could lead to de‑escalation of the conflict and the lifting of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The main inflow of capital was concentrated in the communication services and consumer‑goods sectors, while energy companies were among the underperformers due to falling oil prices.

The IMF revised its expectations for global economic development in 2026, lowering the growth outlook to 3.1%. This is 0.2 percentage points below previous estimates and is attributed to the negative impact of the prolonged conflict in the Middle East. At the same time, the prediction for 2027 remained unchanged at 3.2%. IMF experts emphasize that the current energy crisis caused by the confrontation with Iran is comparable in scale to the oil shock of 1974, although the modern economic system has a higher degree of resilience.

On Tuesday, the European stock market closed in the green. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.27%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.12%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.46%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed the trading session up 0.25%. The positive dynamics were driven by hopes for de‑escalation of the Middle East conflict: reports emerged about a possible return of US and Iranian delegations to the negotiating table in Islamabad as early as this week. An additional factor that made the market question the long‑term viability of strict measures was criticism of the maritime blockade of Iranian ports from Saudi Arabia and China, which cast doubt on the effectiveness and sustainability of such restrictions. Siemens shares led the gainers, rising more than 4%.

On Tuesday, WTI oil prices showed a sharp decline, falling more than 7% lower to below 92 dollars per barrel, the lowest level in the past three weeks. Donald Trump allowed for the resumption of negotiations in Pakistan within the next two days, and Tehran expressed readiness to temporarily suspend restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz to facilitate the diplomatic process. These developments outweighed concerns related to the officially imposed maritime blockade of Iranian exports by the United States. At the same time, IEA experts expressed serious concern about the long‑term outlook for the market. According to the agency, the prolonged confrontation threatens to completely offset global oil‑demand growth this year, potentially leading to the first annual decline in consumption since the pandemic.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.74% for the trading week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.30%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed down 0.90% yesterday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.39%.

On Wednesday, the offshore yuan traded near 6.81 per dollar, holding close to its highest levels in the past three years. The strengthening of the Chinese currency is driven by a combination of domestic economic success and a favorable external environment. According to the current prognosis, China’s GDP will grow by 4.8% year‑on‑year in the first quarter of 2026. This indicates a gradual recovery of activity after slowing to 4.5% at the end of last year, when indicators reached their lowest point since the post‑pandemic reopening of the economy.

Notably, Beijing has managed to minimize the negative consequences of the Middle East conflict. Thanks to consistent efforts toward energy independence and diversification of resource supplies, the impact of geopolitical instability on domestic prices and production remains limited.

Monday ended with gains in the US stock market. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.63%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 1.02%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed up 1.06%. Investor optimism was driven by a correction in oil prices and a decline in bond yields amid hopes for diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran. Despite the failure of Sunday’s negotiations and Donald Trump’s announcement of a blockade on Iranian exports, his subsequent statement that Iran was willing to resume dialogue calmed the market. The main driver of growth was the technology sector, where Oracle shares surged 12%.

Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed the 74,000‑dollar mark, reaching a four‑week high. The digital assets’ positive momentum is linked to investors returning to risk‑on strategies amid signals of a possible resumption of dialogue between Washington and Tehran. Analysts highlight Bitcoin’s strong resilience: it has gained more than 10% since the start of the conflict, outperforming many traditional assets. However, experts believe that a full‑scale rally requires regulatory clarity. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce expressed support for establishing a stable regulatory framework for crypto brokers – a signal the industry interpreted as a step toward broader institutional acceptance of digital assets.

On Monday, European stock markets closed in the red, although indices managed to recover part of their intraday losses by the close. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.26%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) declined by 0.29%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.99%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.17%. The main source of concern was Donald Trump’s announcement that the US Navy had begun enforcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, following the failure of diplomatic efforts in Islamabad. This reignited fears of an oil shortage. Beyond geopolitics, markets also reacted to major political shifts within the EU following Hungary’s election results. Péter Magyar’s victory marked the end of Viktor Orbán’s 16‑year tenure, a development seen as strengthening the position of pro‑EU forces.

Platinum prices (XPT) surged to a four‑week high, reaching 2,100 dollars per ounce. The rise in precious metals was driven by signs of potential de‑escalation in the Middle East: Washington and Tehran signaled readiness to return to negotiations. However, despite the current rally, platinum remains under pressure from declining industrial demand. The automotive sector continues to reduce purchases of the metal due to the global shift toward electric vehicles, which do not require catalytic converters.

WTI crude oil prices stabilized near 98 dollars per barrel, posting a gain of less than 2%. Notably, early in the session, prices had jumped as much as 9%, but the market cooled after signals of a possible resumption of dialogue between Washington and Tehran. According to the latest OPEC+ report, the alliance’s daily output fell by 7.9 million barrels in March due to shipping disruptions in the strait. The supply deficit was partially eased by news from Saudi Arabia: the kingdom reported the restoration of production at the Manifa oil field and full capacity of the East–West pipeline, which provides access to the Red Sea.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.74% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.30%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed down 0.90%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.39%.

On Tuesday, China’s 10‑year government bond yield fell to a six‑week low of 1.78%, marking its third consecutive day of decline. The main driver was weak trade data: annual export growth slowed to 2.5% (a five‑month low), totaling 321.03 billion dollars. At the same time, imports surged by 27.8%, the fastest pace since autumn 2021, reaching 511.3 billion dollars. This sharp imbalance reduced the trade surplus to 51.13 billion dollars, nearly half of last year’s figure and significantly below analyst expectations.

The Australian dollar (AUD) stabilized at 0.709 USD, holding near a four‑week high. The currency was supported by hopes for de‑escalation between Washington and Tehran as well as signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser expressed concern that inflation remains above the 2-3% target range and that current interest rates may not be high enough to contain price growth, especially given elevated oil prices. His comments pushed the probability of a rate hike at the May meeting from 69% to 72%, although the final decision will depend on upcoming labor‑market and consumer‑activity data.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.56% (weekly result +3.11%). The S&P 500 (US500) declined by 0.11% (weekly result +3.48%). The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed Friday up 0.14% (weekly result +4.03%). The upcoming week will be a moment of truth for the US market, as the geopolitical agenda collides with the hard numbers of corporate reality. Vice President J.D. Vance conducts difficult negotiations in Islamabad, attempting to turn the fragile ceasefire into a stable agreement on the Strait of Hormuz. Wall Street is preparing for the start of earnings season. Reports from major banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, will show how well the financial sector has adapted to high volatility and interest rates that the Federal Reserve continues to hold at restrictive levels.

Investors are particularly concerned about the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The Headline Index is expected to jump 1.2% month‑over‑month, confirming that the energy shock from the Middle East conflict is already filtering through production chains. Attention to the tech sector will peak at the end of the week when TSMC and Netflix release their earnings. These reports will serve as a litmus test for global semiconductor demand and consumer confidence amid inflationary pressure.

However, the situation remains extremely tense following the diplomatic marathon in Islamabad. Direct negotiations between the US delegation led by Vice President J.D. Vance and Iranian officials ended without a breakthrough. Tehran continues to maintain the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has already caused unprecedented disruptions in global oil and gas supplies. Adding fuel to the fire is Donald Trump’s tough rhetoric, warning of new fees for ships in the region – effectively turning the strait into a “toll corridor” under Iran’s control.

On Friday, the Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened slightly, falling 0.16% to 1.38 per US dollar. The main pressure on the loonie came from a combination of geopolitical calm and disappointing domestic data. Although the unemployment rate stabilized at 6.7%, analysts note that this was driven more by a decline in labor‑force participation than by genuine hiring momentum.

The Mexican peso (MXN) ended the trading week with a 0.3% gain, closing at 17.31 per dollar, reaffirming its status as one of the most resilient emerging‑market currencies. The primary driver of the peso’s strength remains the carry‑trade strategy. The large interest‑rate differential between Banxico and the US Federal Reserve makes the peso highly attractive to investors seeking yield in an environment of relative stability.

By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) slipped by 0.01% (weekly +3.79%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) rose by 0.17% (weekly +4.85%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.55% (weekly +5.12%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.03% (weekly +2.95%). This week, Europe’s main event will be the release of the final March inflation data, which will confirm the Eurozone’s transition into an energy‑shock phase. Inflation in Germany and the UK is expected to reflect a sharp rise in costs caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and oil‑price volatility. Wholesale‑price data in Germany will serve as a leading indicator of how quickly the LNG shortage will spill into retail markets in the coming months. Alongside inflation reports, markets will assess the resilience of the real economy through February trade balance and industrial‑production data – both under scrutiny due to the impact of the 10% US tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

On Europe’s political map, the central event is the parliamentary election in Hungary. Investors are awaiting the outcome of the contest between Viktor Orbán and opposition leader Péter Magyar, whose TISZA party, according to recent polls, has a chance to strip the ruling government of its majority. The result will determine whether Hungary retains its veto power on key EU policy issues or whether the architecture of European unity undergoes radical change.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 6.99% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 2.77%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed the week up 0.01%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) climbed 3.17%. This week, investor attention in the Asia‑Pacific region will focus on China, where a batch of macroeconomic data is expected to confirm the resilience of the world’s second‑largest economy. GDP growth for Q1 2026 is outlooked to accelerate to 5.0%, an important signal amid global instability. Despite expected slowdowns in retail sales and industrial production in March, a substantial trade surplus of 112 billion dollars and strong credit expansion (up to 3.4 trillion yuan) indicate that Beijing continues to successfully stimulate both domestic and external growth drivers. In Australia, the focus shifts to the labor market, where a stable unemployment rate of 4.3% and ongoing job creation support expectations of another RBA rate hike as early as May.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.52%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.62%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed up 0.72%. The main driver of optimism was news that Israel is willing to consider negotiations with Lebanon. This eased investor fears of the entire region being dragged into a full‑scale war and allowed markets to enter a phase of confident consolidation near recent highs. Despite the positive sentiment on Wall Street, the overall atmosphere remains tense. Oil prices, once again surging toward 100 dollars per barrel, serve as a constant reminder that the Strait of Hormuz is still at risk of a complete blockade.

On Thursday, European stock Indices closed in the red, giving back part of Wednesday’s record rally. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.14%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) declined by 0.22%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) slipped by 0.15%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.05%. The shift in sentiment came after reports that the two‑week ceasefire between the US and Iran had already begun to crack. Tehran accused Washington of violating the terms of the truce, reigniting fears of renewed attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf and a prolonged energy shortage.

Silver prices posted a strong rally, reaching 74.5 dollars per ounce. This rise reflected investor reaction to the critical instability of the 14‑day ceasefire between the US and Iran. Amid the renewed disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and a sharp spike in oil prices to 99 dollars, silver regained its appeal as a safe‑haven asset. An additional driver was the weakening US dollar, which made precious metals more attractive for holders of other currencies.

The oil market was hit by a new wave of volatility: WTI prices jumped nearly 5%, reaching 99 dollars per barrel. This sharp rise almost erased the previous day’s optimism and followed reports that the two‑week ceasefire announced by Donald Trump was on the verge of collapse. Traders reacted instantly to news of increased military activity near the Strait of Hormuz and delays in tanker traffic, which brought the risk premium back into the market. Prices also received fundamental support from OPEC+, which reaffirmed its commitment to production cuts, and from fresh US data showing an unexpected decline in commercial crude inventories.

On Friday, US natural‑gas prices held at 2.67 dollars per MMBtu, the lowest level in a year and a half. While the oil market is shaken by uncertainty in the Middle East, the US gas sector shows remarkable resilience. The main pressure on prices comes from domestic fundamentals: oversupply and unseasonably warm weather, which meteorologists expect to persist across most of the US at least until April 24. The latest EIA report confirmed bearish concerns: gas inventories rose by 50 billion cubic feet for the week, exceeding market expectations.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.73%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.61%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped by 0.54%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.24%.

The Australian dollar confidently held above 0.707 USD, reaching a three‑week high. The currency is on track for its strongest weekly gain since mid‑January, supported by a temporary improvement in global risk appetite following the announcement of the two‑week ceasefire. Since the aussie is traditionally viewed as a barometer of global market sentiment, the decline in demand for the safe‑haven US dollar and hopes for de‑escalation in the Middle East provided strong support. Despite the optimism, the backdrop remains extremely tense due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. If direct negotiations with the Iranian delegation fail and the blockade persists, global supply chains could be hit hard – instantly cooling demand for risk assets such as the Australian dollar.

On Wednesday, the US stock indices staged a historic rally: the Dow Jones jumped more than 1,300 points, marking its best performance in a year. Investors ignored the Federal Reserve’s warnings about stagflation risks and focused instead on what many called a “diplomatic miracle” – the White House’s readiness for direct negotiations with Iran. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 2.58%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 2.51%. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed up 2.80%. Despite ongoing pockets of conflict in Lebanon and the Persian Gulf, the market appears confident in the stability of the 14‑day ceasefire. The artificial‑intelligence and airline sectors were the biggest winners of the day. Shares of giants such as Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta surged between 4% and 10%, as falling oil prices and stabilizing bond yields restored investor appetite for risk assets.

The minutes of the March FOMC meeting confirm that the Federal Reserve has shifted into a mode of “heightened readiness.” The introduction of a two‑sided formulation in the rate discussion is a clear signal to markets: the Fed no longer guarantees that the next move will be a cut. Previously, investors debated only the timing of policy easing; now the hawkish wing openly acknowledges the possibility of additional hikes if inflationary pressures, fueled by geopolitics, fail to ease. The fact that most participants see risks to both prices and employment underscores the real threat of stagflation.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthened confidently, reaching 1.38 per US dollar amid a broad retreat of the greenback. Paradoxically, the loonie managed to rise even as WTI crude prices collapsed due to news of the temporary ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Normally, falling oil prices drag the Canadian currency lower, but this time the sharp drop in the US dollar index to a four‑week low proved to be the dominant factor, giving the loonie a net gain for the session. However, the Canadian dollar still looks weaker than currencies such as the Australian dollar and the British pound, which are less dependent on the energy sector and recover more quickly when risk appetite returns. For the Bank of Canada, the current situation creates a complex backdrop: a stronger currency helps contain imported inflation, but a sharp decline in oil revenues could negatively affect the country’s trade balance in the long run.

On Wednesday, European markets experienced a true triumph: indices soared to monthly highs. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 5.06%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 4.49%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) climbed 3.94%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 2.51%. The decisive factor was the 14‑day ceasefire between the US and Iran, which allowed the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The sharp drop in oil and natural‑gas prices in Europe became a powerful catalyst for the industrial and banking sectors. Lower energy costs immediately improved margin outlooks for giants such as Siemens, Safran, and Schneider, whose shares surged more than 10%. The banking sector, represented by Santander, UniCredit, and BNP Paribas, gained around 8% amid bond‑market stabilization and falling yields.

The Swiss franc (CHF) strengthened to 0.789 per US dollar, reaching a two‑week high. This movement resulted from a paradoxical combination of factors: declining global demand for the dollar as a safe‑haven asset and Switzerland’s own inflation dynamics. Under normal conditions, a strong franc effectively restrains inflation by making imports cheaper. However, the current scale of the energy crisis is so severe that the currency buffer is no longer sufficient. This creates a unique situation in which rising energy prices fully offset the deflationary impact of a strong national currency. For the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the current environment suggests a pause in active policy measures.

On Thursday, WTI crude prices staged a sharp rebound, rising more than 2% to 97 dollars per barrel. The market quickly realized that the triumphant ceasefire headlines had collided with harsh reality: the “silence window” was already at risk of collapsing within the first 24 hours. Renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon triggered a heated dispute over the boundaries of the agreement. Tehran insists that Lebanon is part of the deal, while Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump confirmed that the campaign against Hezbollah is not included in the US-Iran arrangement. Nevertheless, hope for diplomacy remains. US Vice President J.D. Vance, who is leading the American delegation, is heading to Islamabad for direct talks with Iranian representatives this weekend.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 5.39%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped by 2.84%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 3.09%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) climbed by 2.55%.

The offshore yuan (CNH) is holding at 6.83 per US dollar, hovering near a three‑year high. The resilience of the Chinese currency amid global volatility is explained by Beijing’s unique position: the yuan has strengthened by 1% over the past month and by 2.4% since the beginning of the year. Investors view China as a relative “safe harbor” thanks to its massive oil reserves and stable energy‑supply chains, which have proven less vulnerable to the Middle East crisis than those of other Asian economies. Market attention is now shifting to China’s macroeconomic data, which will be released on Friday. Consumer inflation (CPI) is expected to show moderate growth around 1.3%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) may return to annual growth for the first time since 2022. If these projections are confirmed, it would signal a recovery in domestic demand and industrial activity, giving the People’s Bank of China more room for maneuver.

On Tuesday, US stock indices traded without a unified direction. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.18%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.08%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed up 0.10%. On Wednesday, index futures moved into positive territory, catalyzed by the signing of a 14‑day ceasefire between the US and Iran, which restored investor appetite for risk.

In the corporate sector, performance was mixed: while giants like Nvidia and AMD declined amid broad pessimism, Apple plunged 4% due to production issues with its foldable iPhone. Meanwhile, Broadcom shares jumped 4.5% thanks to a strategic contract with Alphabet, and Intel gained 3% on rumors of cooperation with xAI.

Inflation expectations in the US spiked sharply in March 2026, reaching an annual high of 3.4%. A New York Fed survey recorded alarming dynamics: expectations for gasoline price growth more than doubled, to 9.4%, the highest level since the 2022 energy crisis.

Bitcoin (BTC) staged an impressive rally, breaking above 72,000 dollars and reaching a three‑week high. The catalyst was a dramatic shift in the geopolitical climate: the signing of a 14‑day ceasefire between the US and Iran just two hours before Donald Trump’s ultimatum expired restored risk appetite. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the temporary halt to mutual strikes triggered a wave of short liquidations, pushing the price of the leading digital assets to new local highs. After a turbulent period and outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier in the year, March data showed stabilization and renewed net inflows. The fact that institutional investors have begun increasing positions again signaled to the market that the capitulation phase among major players has ended.

European stock Indices closed sharply lower on Tuesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.06%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) declined by 0.67%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.64%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.84%. The main driver of the sell‑off was fear of an imminent energy crisis in the EU’s largest economies: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Trump’s ultimatum pushed gas and oil prices sharply higher, leading to rising government‑bond yields and pressuring industrial giants. Shares of Siemens, Schneider Electric, and Airbus lost around 2%, as investors fear supply‑chain paralysis and a surge in production costs.

Palladium (XPD) and platinum (XPT) prices surged sharply on Wednesday. Such a rapid rebound became possible thanks to the sudden easing of tensions in the Persian Gulf: news of the two‑week ceasefire between the US and Iran triggered a collapse in oil prices below 100 dollars per barrel. This immediately lowered inflation expectations and revived hopes for a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve, leading to falling bond yields and a weaker dollar – ideal conditions for commodity price growth.

Wednesday was marked by a historic collapse in oil prices: WTI futures plunged more than 15%, breaking below 95 dollars per barrel. The massive sell‑off was a direct reaction to the abrupt de‑escalation in the Persian Gulf. Donald Trump’s decision to transform his hardline ultimatum into a “bilateral ceasefire” for 14 days, and his acknowledgment that Iran’s 10‑point proposal is a “real basis for negotiations”, instantly removed the enormous geopolitical risk premium that had accumulated in recent weeks. A key factor for global energy security was Tehran’s commitment to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz. For the global economy, this drop in oil prices below 95 dollars is a powerful deflationary stimulus. If the two‑week window allows the parties to finalize a deal, fears of global recession and uncontrolled fuel inflation may give way to a cycle of business activity recovery. However, investors remain cautious, recognizing that Iran’s requirement to coordinate all transit shipments with its armed forces could become a new tool of subtle pressure in upcoming negotiations.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.72% during the trading session, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) did not trade yesterday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.83%. Asian stock markets on Wednesday posted explosive gains, celebrating the unexpected diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East. The leaders of the rally were the Japanese and South Korean Indices, which surged more than 5%, reflecting enormous investor relief after the world came close to a full‑scale energy war. Despite the euphoria, traders are closely examining the terms of the agreement. Tehran’s requirement to coordinate all transit shipments with Iran’s armed forces indicates that control over the key maritime artery remains a leverage tool in Iran’s hands. Nevertheless, stock exchanges in Australia, China, and Hong Kong supported the upward trend, as the risk of immediate disruption to global supply chains temporarily faded.

The New Zealand dollar rose to 0.58 USD, reaching its highest level in nearly two weeks, after the Reserve Bank, as expected, left the official cash rate unchanged at 2.25%. The strengthening of the New Zealand dollar is also supported by the de‑escalation between Washington and Tehran. Iran’s agreement to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz under the 14‑day ceasefire reduced the risk premium that had been weighing on commodity currencies. For New Zealand, whose economy is highly dependent on logistics costs and energy imports, the resumption of shipping reduces the threat of stagflation.

On Monday, US stock indices showed moderate optimism amid cautious hopes for a 45‑day ceasefire. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.36%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.44%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed the session up 0.54%.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.39 per US dollar, taking advantage of a temporary weakening of the greenback following reports of a potential 45‑day ceasefire. Investor optimism is supported by news that Iran may shift from a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to a system of charging transit fees on tankers – a development that significantly reduces the risk of an uncontrolled inflationary shock. For the Bank of Canada, which keeps its policy rate at 2.25%, such de‑escalation provides a much‑needed breather, allowing the regulator to avoid emergency tightening despite weak manufacturing data (47.6 points) and ongoing pressure on the domestic sector.

European stock markets were closed on Monday due to the Easter holiday.
Silver prices (XAG) continued their downward movement, falling to 72 dollars per ounce. The metal’s dynamics reflect extreme investor confusion as markets attempt to navigate between reports of a possible 45‑day ceasefire and Donald Trump’s hardline ultimatum. Since the start of “Operation Epic Fury,” silver has lost more than 20% of its value, showing the worst performance among precious metals. This is due to its dual nature: as an industrial asset, it suffers from expectations of a global manufacturing slowdown, and as an investment asset, it loses to the US dollar amid expectations of further Fed rate hikes to combat energy‑driven inflation.

Platinum prices (XPT) remain below the psychological threshold of 2,000 dollars per ounce, trading near three‑month lows amid escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf. The market is frozen ahead of Donald Trump’s deadline, set for 20:00 on Tuesday (Eastern Time): the threat of strikes on Iran’s civilian infrastructure has overshadowed the faint hopes for a 45‑day ceasefire. Geopolitical tensions and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are fueling energy inflation, reinforcing expectations of tighter central‑bank policy and exerting direct pressure on platinum‑group metals as non‑yielding assets.

The oil market displayed characteristic skepticism: after a brief decline on ceasefire‑related headlines, WTI prices resumed their upward movement, closing above 112 dollars per barrel. This underscores that traders still view the physical blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a more significant factor than preliminary mediation agreements. The market is now focused on Trump’s deadline, expiring Tuesday at 20:00: the threat of destroying Iran’s civilian infrastructure (bridges and power plants) shifts the conflict into a phase of total economic warfare. The current gap between futures prices and physical oil prices indicates an acute supply shortage that cannot be offset even by releasing strategic reserves.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.55% during the trading session, while China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) did not trade yesterday.

The Australian dollar remains under heavy pressure, holding near a two‑month low at 0.690 USD. For the “aussie,” a high‑risk commodity currency, the combination of an energy shock and potential military escalation creates an extremely toxic environment, only partially softened by last‑minute hopes for diplomatic mediation ahead of the ultimatum. The fundamental picture has been significantly worsened by domestic macroeconomic data: Australia’s March PMI fell into contraction territory for the first time in a year and a half, dropping to 46.6. Particularly alarming is the collapse in the services sector from 52.8 to 46.3, indicating a sharp cooling of consumer activity due to soaring fuel prices and overall geopolitical instability.