InvestMacro

The US stock indices closed mixed on Thursday. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.11%. The S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.13%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.72%. The primary pressure on the market came from a large-scale sell-off in tech stocks as investors began to reassess the valuation of AI-related companies amid a busy corporate earnings season. The hardest hit was the high-tech sector after Microsoft’s shares plummeted by 10%. The company reported a slowdown in cloud business growth alongside a sharp increase in capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, triggering a chain reaction of selling in the sector and putting heavy pressure on the Nasdaq. At the same time, individual corporate reports supported the market: Meta shares soared 10% due to a revenue prognoses that exceeded expectations, IBM added 5%, and Caterpillar rose by 3.5% following strong results.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) weakened by 2.8%, dropping to $82,100 and hitting its lowest level since November 21, 2025. Market pressure was driven by several factors, the key one being a sustained capital outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs. From January 20 to 26, ETFs recorded a net outflow of approximately $1.14 billion, marking the largest weekly decline in inflows since the beginning of January. The bulk of the redemptions came from major funds, Fidelity’s FBTC, Grayscale’s GBTC, BlackRock’s IBIT, and Ark 21Shares’ ARKB, which collectively accounted for about 92% of all outflows. Notably, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, the largest Bitcoin ETF on the market, fell behind the same management company’s Gold ETF in terms of asset volume, highlighting a shift in investor interest toward more traditional safe-haven instruments.

Equity markets in Europe traded with no single trend on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 2.07%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.06%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.10%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed higher 0.17%. European stock markets ended Thursday’s session lower overall amid weak reports from several of the region’s largest companies.

In Sweden, the Riksbank’s key interest rate was left unchanged at 1.75% for the third consecutive time following the first monetary policy meeting of 2026, which was fully in line with market expectations. The central bank noted that the rate is likely to remain at its current level for some time while the regulator assesses the impact of measures already taken, which are expected to support a recovery in economic activity and stabilize inflation.

On Friday, WTI crude oil prices declined to around $64 per barrel; however, for the month as a whole, they continue to show their best performance since July 2023, supported by a rising geopolitical premium. Investors remain cautious amid renewed tensions between the US and Iran after President Donald Trump called on Tehran to return to negotiations regarding the nuclear program. The market is particularly focused on risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a strategically vital narrow route between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, through which a significant portion of global oil and LNG supplies passes daily. Any escalation in the region could lead to serious disruptions in global energy flows.

On Thursday, silver (XAG) dropped more than 6%, falling to around $110 per ounce, retreating from a record high of $120 amid active profit-taking by investors following a sharp price rally. Additional pressure on the market was exerted by ongoing geopolitical tensions: Iran stated it would “defend and respond as never before” to new threats from the US.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) grew by 0.03%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.34%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.51%, while the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.07%.

On Friday, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) declined to around 0.604 USD, but for the month, it maintained steady growth supported by increasing expectations of monetary policy tightening. The momentum for the “kiwi” was set by a series of strong macroeconomic data, specifically an unexpected acceleration of inflation last week, which boosted market confidence that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may move to raise rates toward the end of the year. Against this backdrop, the currency rose to a seven-month high on Thursday. Additional support came from fresh data showing consumer confidence in January reached its highest level since August 2021, as well as a trade surplus increase that exceeded expectations.

On Wednesday, the US stock indices traded mixed. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.03%, while the S&P 500 (US500) edged down by 0.01%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.32%. Investors adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of major tech earnings and the anticipated Fed decision to maintain interest rates. At its January 2026 meeting, the US Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged in the 3.50-3.75% range, fully meeting market expectations. The decision follows three consecutive cuts last year that brought borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. However, a split emerged within the Committee: Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller voted against the hold, advocating for an additional 25 bps cut. The regulator reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on incoming macroeconomic data, updated expectations, and the balance of risks. During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the US economy enters 2026 on a “solid footing,” stating that current rate levels are appropriate for making progress toward the Fed’s dual goals of price stability and maximum employment.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthened to 1.35 against the US dollar, reaching a sixteen-month high as markets reacted to the Bank of Canada’s latest monetary policy decision and signals. Although US tariffs and ongoing trade uncertainty continue to pressure the Canadian economy (dampening exports, investment, and labor reallocation), the Bank of Canada maintains a relatively constructive macroeconomic outlook. The regulator expects moderate GDP growth of approximately 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, estimating that excess capacity will generally offset tariff-related cost increases, keeping inflation near the 2% target.

European equity markets mostly declined on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.29%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) dropped by 1.06%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.10%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished down 0.52%. The primary pressure came from the luxury goods sector. LVMH shares plummeted 7.3% following weak financial results, dragging the entire segment down. CEO Bernard Arnault pointed to a challenging market environment and warned that 2026 would likely be a difficult year for the industry. Investors also remained cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement.
The Swiss franc (CHF) strengthened above 0.77 against the US dollar, reaching its highest level in ten years amid a global shift toward safe-haven assets and a simultaneous aversion to other traditional “haven” currencies. Despite the franc’s strength putting downward pressure on Switzerland’s already subdued inflation, expectations for further rate cuts from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) remain limited. The SNB’s policy rate has been held at 0% for six consecutive months, with central bank officials repeatedly emphasizing a cautious stance regarding a potential return to negative interest rate territory.

Platinum (XPT) prices rose toward $2,700 per ounce, returning to record levels fueled by persistent supply constraints and robust investment demand. An additional growth factor is the narrowness of the platinum market and its relatively low price compared to other precious metals, making even moderate physical purchases capable of significantly impacting price action. The structural annual supply deficit remains the key fundamental driver. Production in South Africa, which accounts for about 70% of global output, continues to face underinvestment, infrastructure disruptions, and logistical constraints. Supply risks could also intensify in Canada, another major producer, amid threats of 100% tariffs should trade agreements with China proceed.

WTI crude oil prices rose toward $64 per barrel, hitting a four-month high due to rising geopolitical risks following tough new US statements directed at Iran. President Donald Trump warned of possible further strikes while simultaneously calling for Tehran to negotiate, heightening market fears of potential disruptions to Iranian oil supplies. Fundamental data also supported the bullish move. According to the EIA report, US crude oil inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels last week, contrary to market expectations of a 1.75 million barrel increase, further strengthening the upside momentum.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.05%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) edged down 0.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) surged 2.58%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative result of 0.08%.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar (AUD) climbed above 0.70 USD, hitting a three-year high amid a gold rally and growing expectations for monetary policy tightening. All four of Australia’s major banks now consider an RBA hike likely, with market pricing reflecting a probability of over 70%. Rates are now fully priced at 3.85% by May and approximately 4.10% by September.

On Tuesday, the US stock indices traded mixed. By the end of the session, the Dow Jones (US30) declined by 0.83%, while the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.41%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.88%. Investors continued to build positions ahead of a busy week of corporate earnings and key policy decisions. With approximately three-quarters of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far exceeding expectations, the market focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s decision and the accompanying signals to be announced today.

Today, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will hold its scheduled monetary policy meeting. According to the consensus among major banks, the key interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.25%. The regulator has paused to assess the impact of US trade tariffs and the economic policies of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government on exports and the broader economic balance. Markets will closely watch the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) for signals regarding the resilience of Canadian economic growth and GDP amid intensifying global uncertainty, as well as hints at the future policy trajectory. A “hawkish” scenario that emphasizes inflationary risks and a strong labor market could boost the Canadian Dollar (CAD).

European equity markets mostly rose on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.15%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.27%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.70%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished at 0.58%. Investors adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Fed statement and US Big Tech earnings, while also digesting news regarding the EU-India trade deal. The automotive sector faced the most pressure: under the agreement, tariffs on cars were reduced from 110% to 10% for a quota of 250,000 vehicles per year. Consequently, shares of Porsche Automobil Holding, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and BMW lost between 0.6% and 2.6%.

On Wednesday, Silver prices (XAG) rose to $115 per ounce, approaching a new all-time high amid a sharp weakening of the US Dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets. The movement was catalyzed by statements from US President Donald Trump, who indicated he was not concerned about the falling Dollar, which has dropped to four-year lows. These comments bolstered expectations that the administration is willing to tolerate a weak Dollar to enhance the competitiveness of US exports. Further support for precious metals came from political uncertainty in Washington, including threats of new trade tariffs and escalating attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence, which are undermining investor confidence in the Greenback and US assets.

WTI Oil prices rose by approximately 2% on Tuesday, climbing toward the $62 per barrel level. Prices were supported by a severe winter storm in the US, which significantly disrupted oil production and refinery operations. Estimates suggest that US oil producers lost up to 2 million barrels per day over the weekend, roughly 15% of national output, as extreme frost strained energy infrastructure and power grids. Geopolitics also remained in focus, as the US deployed an aircraft carrier and escort ships to the Middle East, raising tension levels and supporting the risk premium in oil prices.

The US Natural Gas prices (XNG) declined by more than 7% to $6.27 per MMBtu following an unprecedented rally of approximately 117% over the previous five trading sessions. Warmer weather forecasts and early signs of production recovery following the massive disruptions triggered the correction.

Asian markets rose confidently yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.85%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.37%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 1.35%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.92%.

On Wednesday, the Australian Dollar (AUD) traded near 0.699 USD, holding close to a three-year high following the release of inflation data. According to the report, annual inflation in December accelerated to 3.8% from 3.4% in November, and the monthly figure rose by 1.0%, significantly exceeding expectations of 0.7%. Closely watched core inflation also remained stubbornly high: the annual figure rose to 3.4%, well above the RBA’s target range of 2-3%. Against this backdrop, markets swiftly repriced rate expectations, with the probability of a 25 bps hike at the February 3rd RBA meeting rising to 72%, up from 63% before the inflation data release.

On Monday, the US stock indices posted solid gains. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.64%, while the S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.50%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.43%. Growth was driven primarily by the technology and communication services sectors: shares of Apple, Meta, and Microsoft strengthened significantly ahead of their financial results, whereas the consumer goods sector lagged due to a decline in Tesla stock. Market focus shifted to Wednesday’s Fed meeting and speculation about the potential appointment of a new Chairman, as well as the risk of a renewed US government “shutdown” over budget disagreements. Additional uncertainty was fueled by trade threats against Canada over its potential rapprochement with China, despite Ottawa’s efforts to de-escalate the situation.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) stabilized near 1.37 against the US dollar, halting its rally near monthly highs amid a balance of supporting and restraining factors. On the one hand, the currency continues to be supported by rising oil prices, driven by a supply crunch in high-sulfur fuel amid slowing exports from Russia, disruptions in key US regions, and lower shipments from Venezuela to China. On the other hand, further upside potential is limited by rising trade and geopolitical uncertainty. Pressure on CAD resumed following President Trump’s threats to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian imports should Ottawa pursue closer ties with China.

European equity markets mostly rose on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) climbed 0.13%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.15%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.78%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished 0.05% yesterday. Despite recent easing of concerns about US rhetoric on Greenland and the risk of a transatlantic trade conflict, the broader geopolitical backdrop remained tense. Macro data from Germany provided no surprises: the Ifo Business Climate Index remained at 87.6 in January, missing expectations for growth.

On Tuesday, Silver (XAG) prices surged by more than 6%, climbing above $110 per ounce and continuing a record-breaking rally. The spike was driven by a combination of geopolitical and trade risks, alongside a reallocation of capital from sovereign bonds and currencies into precious metals as safe-haven assets. Market tension was further exacerbated by President Donald Trump’s statements about a possible tariff hike on South Korean goods from 15% to 25% due to delays in ratifying a trade agreement.

Palladium (XPD) prices rose above $2,000 per ounce, reaching a three-year high as supply concerns intensified due to heightened geopolitical risks. The primary catalyst was reports of potential 100% tariffs on Canadian goods in the event of its trade rapprochement with China, fueling fears of supply disruptions to North America, given Canada’s role as a major global producer. Additional market support came from a UBS forecast revision that raised price targets, citing steady investment inflows. Demand also strengthened in China following the launch of yuan-denominated platinum futures in Guangzhou, boosting interest in platinum group metals.

The US Natural Gas (XNG) prices soared by approximately 20%, exceeding $6.3 per MMBtu, marking a high since December 2022 and continuing an extreme rally driven by weather factors. Since the beginning of last week, the increase has exceeded 90%, following a record jump of nearly 70%, which was the strongest weekly gain since records began in 1990. Extreme cold has simultaneously hit supply and sharply increased demand for heating and electricity. Frigid weather knocked out about 10% of US gas production capacity, with average January production falling from December records and daily output dropping to two-year lows. Market focus remains on the duration of these production disruptions, as their prolonged nature could lead to further price increases.

Asian markets traded with mixed results yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.79%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.34%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.06%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a result of 0.13%. On Tuesday morning, Hong Kong and Chinese stocks continued to rise. Support was broad-based, with the largest contribution coming from the financial sector, which grew by about 2% after Beijing announced intentions to deepen the integration of mainland Chinese and Hong Kong financial markets. Further positive sentiment was provided by Chinese macro data: industrial profits in 2025 grew by 0.6% year-on-year, a notable acceleration from the 0.1% growth recorded during the January-November period.

On Friday, US stock markets closed mixed. The Dow Jones (US30) declined by 0.58% (-0.74% for the week), while the S&P 500 (US500) edged up 0.03% (-0.65% for the week). The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) gained 0.34% (-0.41% for the week). Energy companies led the day’s gains, and the technology segment was bolstered by Nvidia (+1.5%) and AMD (+2.3%) following signals from China regarding potential orders for H200 AI chips. Conversely, a sharp 17% drop in Intel shares, triggered by a weak forecast and news of operational challenges, weighed on the semiconductor sector and pulled down Broadcom, limiting overall gains. Macroeconomic data provided a conflicting picture: the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised upward to a multi-month high, yet preliminary S&P Global PMIs pointed to a moderate slowdown in both services and manufacturing.

Geopolitical tensions escalated as US President Donald Trump threatened Canada with 100% tariffs on all exports to the US if Ottawa moves forward with a trade agreement with China, labeling such a move a “strategic error.” This follows Canada’s recent steps toward Beijing, including agreements to increase Chinese EV imports. Prime Minister Mark Carney stated he expects China to lower tariffs on Canadian canola following his recent meeting with Xi Jinping, the first visit by a Canadian leader to Beijing in eight years.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened past the 17.4 mark against the dollar, returning to its June 2024 highs after a brief correction. Previously, the currency faced pressure from a global flight to safety amid US-Europe trade frictions sparked by Trump’s statements on Greenland. The peso’s recovery highlights its fundamental resilience, supported by the Bank of Mexico’s hawkish stance. The suspension of the easing cycle, with the key rate held at 7%, provides attractive real yields and continues to draw foreign investor interest into local debt instruments.

European equity markets mostly trended lower on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.18% (-0.16% for the week), while France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell 0.07% (+0.22% for the week). Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.67% (+0.23% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) slipped 0.07% (-0.90% for the week). In a sudden pivot at the Davos conference, President Trump temporarily walked back threats of tariffs against European countries that opposed the US acquisition of Greenland, citing a “framework deal” with NATO. While this eased immediate political tension, uncertainty regarding Washington’s long-term strategy remains. Macro data showed steady private-sector expansion in the Eurozone, as reflected in PMIs, reinforcing expectations that the ECB will maintain its current policy.

Silver (XAG) made history by breaking the $ 108-per-ounce threshold, driven by a weakening dollar, geopolitical strife, and economic uncertainty. The US dollar came under pressure as markets worried Europe might leverage its vast US assets in response to the Greenland crisis. Beyond macro factors, silver’s rally was fueled by a massive short squeeze, robust retail demand, and China’s tightening of export controls on industrial metals.

On Monday, US Natural Gas prices (XNG) surged by over 17%, exceeding $6/MMBtu for the first time since late 2022, as a historic winter storm gripped the nation. Prices have nearly doubled in the last two weeks, the largest gain on record, due to forecasts for sustained arctic temperatures. Inventory reports showed a larger-than-expected withdrawal of 120 billion cubic feet, and analysts anticipate further drawdowns as heating demand intensifies.
Asian markets showed mixed performance last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.86%, while the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 2.99%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.41%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed the week down 0.27%.

The Singapore dollar (SGD) has strengthened to approximately 1.27 against the US dollar, marking its highest level since October 2014. This appreciation is fueled by capital inflows into safe-haven assets and market expectations that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will maintain its current policy stance. The currency remains in steady demand due to its “safe haven” status, underpinned by Singapore’s AAA-rated bond market, high stock market dividend yields, and predictable economic policy amid heightened global uncertainty.

On Thursday, the US stock market rose steadily amid easing geopolitical tensions and encouraging macroeconomic data. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) increased by 0.63%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.55%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.91%. President Donald Trump backed away from new tariff threats against Europe and outlined the framework for a future agreement regarding Greenland. The primary growth drivers were tech giants: Meta shares jumped 5.7%, Microsoft added 1.5%, Amazon 1.3%, Nvidia 0.8%, Alphabet 0.8%, and Apple 0.3%. The macroeconomic backdrop also supported risk appetite. Data showed a revision of US GDP growth for Q3 upward to 4.4%, initial jobless claims remained near 200,000, PCE inflation matched expectations, and consumer spending remained resilient. Collectively, this reduced concerns about the need for immediate monetary policy easing and bolstered investor confidence in the resilience of the US economy.

European equity markets rose yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 1.20%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.99%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.28%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished positive 0.12%. The rebound occurred as sentiment improved across European markets after US President Donald Trump suspended tariff threats following a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. According to sources, talks in Davos led to an agreement to resume dialogue between the US and Denmark regarding the 1951 defense agreement related to Greenland, easing fears of further escalation. Major banking companies led the gains: Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, UniCredit, and Santander added between 3% and 4%.

The Swiss franc (CHF) traded near 0.79 per US dollar, remaining close to its strongest level since 2011, amid a steady, albeit moderate, inflow into safe-haven assets. After maintaining the key interest rate at 0% for two consecutive meetings, SNB officials signaled that cutting rates below zero carries significant risks. In the near term, markets expect neither easing nor tightening of monetary policy.

On Friday, silver (XAG) jumped nearly 3% to $99 per ounce, reaching new record highs as a weakening dollar provided additional support for precious metal prices. Investors fear that Europe may use its significant assets in the US as a retaliatory measure over the Greenland issue. The surge in silver prices was also driven by a historic short squeeze and active buying by retail investors, as well as tightening export controls from China.

WTI crude oil prices continued to decline on Thursday, dropping toward $59 per barrel amid growing concerns about a global supply glut. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reiterated that oil supply is expected to significantly exceed demand this year, despite a slight upward revision to the consumption growth projections. Additional pressure came from US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showing a 3.6 million barrel increase in commercial crude inventories for the week ending January 16, significantly exceeding market expectations of a roughly 1 million barrel increase.

Severe freezing weather triggered a historic spike in US natural gas (XNG) prices, which rose above $5.53 per MMBtu, approaching levels last seen in December 2022. The sharp rise in quotes is linked to prognoses of extreme cold, which intensified expectations of a surge in demand while simultaneously increasing the risk of supply disruptions. US natural gas prices are showing a gain of more than 70% for the week, marking the sharpest weekly price jump since 1990.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped 1.73%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell 0.28%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.17%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.75%. The New Zealand dollar (NZD) declined to around $0.592 following higher-than-expected inflation data. In the fourth quarter, annual CPI growth accelerated to 3.1%, exceeding both the 3% prognosis and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) target range, reaching its highest level since Q2 2024. Although the regulator still expects inflation to slow to 2% within the year, the strong figures reinforced the view that the policy easing cycle has concluded and increased the likelihood of interest rate hikes.

The US stocks closed sharply higher on Wednesday, paring some of the previous session’s losses, after markets reacted positively to President Donald Trump’s statement at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he ruled out the use of military force to acquire Greenland. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 1.26%. The S&P 500 (US500) climbed 1.16%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 1.18%. The technology sector was the primary driver of the growth: shares of AMD, Intel, and Micron jumped between 6% and 12%, while broader market segments also stabilized as fears of a sharp escalation in tensions between the US and Europe eased. However, uncertainty has not entirely vanished, as Trump reaffirmed his commitment to seeking control over Greenland and maintained the threat of economic pressure on European allies.

European equity markets traded with mixed performance yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.58%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.08%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.06%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at positive 0.11%. The US President Donald Trump ruled out the use of military force to acquire Greenland and backed away from previously proposed tariffs on European countries, announcing the achievement of a framework for a future agreement with NATO, the details of which remain uncertain. At the same time, Denmark confirmed it has no intention of discussing the transfer of its territory to the US, and the European Parliament suspended the approval process for the EU-US trade agreement reached in July, maintaining a high level of uncertainty.

On Thursday, platinum (XPT) and silver (XAG) prices fell by more than 3%, retreating from all-time highs amid a general easing of precious metal prices.
WTI crude oil prices partially recovered their losses on Wednesday, rising toward the $60.5 per barrel level. Market sentiment improved following Trump’s comments in Davos, although tensions between the US and the EU persist, and the trade agreement remains frozen after the European Parliament suspended the ratification vote. Prices received additional support from revised expectations by the International Energy Agency, which raised its estimate for global oil demand growth in 2026 and slightly lowered expectations regarding the scale of the supply surplus.

Daily trading volume for US gas futures on the CME exchange broke an all-time record yesterday. On Wednesday, the US natural gas prices jumped more than 20% to $4.7 per MMBtu, continuing a sharp rally following a roughly 26% gain earlier in the week. Weather prognosis has shifted dramatically toward significant cooling. Updated expectations for the long holiday weekend indicate a deep and massive Arctic intrusion that will cover a large part of the country in the coming weeks.

Asian markets were mostly lower yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.41%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 0.35%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.37%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative result of 0.37%.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened to around $0.679, nearing a sixteen-month high, as easing tensions between the US and Europe improved global risk appetite, and strong labor market data bolstered expectations for policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Statistics showed that employment rose by 65,200 in December, significantly exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a seven-month low of 4.1%. Against this backdrop, markets sharply revised rate expectations, increasing the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the February 3 meeting from 27% to 54%, while such a hike is already fully priced in by May.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) strengthened to around $0.585, reaching a four-month high, ahead of the release of the fourth-quarter Consumer Price Index report on Friday, which could clarify the monetary policy outlook for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Annual inflation is expected to accelerate to 3%, reaching the upper bound of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target range, and any stronger reading could bolster the case for interest rate hikes. Recent macroeconomic data point to a steady economic recovery in the country, strengthening expectations that the regulator could move toward policy tightening later in the year.

The US stock markets closed with a sharp decline: the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 1.76%, the S&P 500 (US500) shed 2.06%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 2.39%. The sell-off was triggered by mounting trade risks after President Donald Trump threatened to impose new 10% tariffs on goods from eight European countries starting February 1, which could be hiked to 25% by June, due to their opposition to US control over Greenland. These statements undermined expectations for stable cross-border trade and intensified overall market risk aversion. Stocks were further pressured by rising US Treasury yields, while reports of a Danish pension fund’s plans to reduce its holdings in US Treasuries added to investor anxiety.

The heaviest losses were sustained by major tech companies and semiconductor manufacturers: Nvidia (NVDA) shares dropped 4.4%, Broadcom (AVGO) fell by 5.4%, and Oracle (ORCL) slid 5.8%, as investors actively trimmed positions in high-beta stocks.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to around 17.62 per U.S. dollar, snapping its rally toward July 2024 highs, amid renewed geopolitical and trade frictions that triggered a global flight to safety. New US threats of tariffs on European goods boosted demand for safer, more liquid assets, putting pressure on emerging market currencies, including the peso. Nevertheless, fundamental support for the Mexican currency remains due to attractive domestic asset yields and an increasingly cautious stance from the Bank of Mexico. Mexico manages to maintain one of the highest real yield differentials among emerging markets, supporting capital inflows into peso-denominated fixed-income instruments.

European equity markets mostly declined yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 1.03%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.61%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 1.34%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 0.67%. The US President Donald Trump ramped up his administration’s efforts to acquire Greenland from Denmark following the imposition of tariffs on key European trading partners, along with a threat to set a 200% tariff on French wines in response to President Emmanuel Macron’s refusal to join Trump’s proposed “Peace Council.” Against this backdrop, banks and insurance companies showed sharp declines, following the global downturn in the financial sector, as rising Japanese government bond yields added pressure to European sovereign debt markets.

WTI crude oil prices rose by more than 1%, climbing toward the $60 per barrel level and recovering from a dip below $59 earlier in the session. The market was supported by reports that Kazakhstan’s largest oil producer temporarily suspended production due to fires at energy facilities. Simultaneously, traders continued to assess the heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe. Ahead of his speech in Davos, President Donald Trump reiterated that the United States must secure control over Greenland. The sharpening rhetoric revived fears of a broader trade conflict between the US and Europe, which could potentially weigh on global economic growth, although the direct impact of these risks on oil prices remains limited for now.
On Tuesday, the US natural gas prices (XNG) surged more than 25% to $3.9 per MMBtu, their highest level in three weeks, as prognoses of a sharp cold snap drove weather-driven price gains. The most severe cold is expected in the final week of January. Meanwhile, gas production remains high, and LNG exports have slightly decreased.

Asian markets declined yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.11%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 0.90%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) shed 0.29%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative result of 0.66%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) held near a two-week high on Wednesday as the US currency continued to be weighed down by intensifying geopolitical tensions. Investors are also focused on the upcoming release of Australian labor market data, which could influence monetary policy expectations. Projections point to a recovery in employment for December by approximately 30,000 people following an unexpected contraction in November, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.4%, in line with Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) estimates. Weaker-than-expected figures would reduce the likelihood of a rate hike in the near term.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) traded near $0.583, remaining close to a three-week high amid a weakening US dollar caused by renewed trade tensions between the US and the EU. On the domestic front, a series of encouraging macroeconomic data points toward an accelerating economic recovery in New Zealand, bolstering expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will begin tightening monetary policy in the second half of the year. While markets are pricing in almost no change for the February meeting, the probability of a rate hike by July already exceeds 50%.