InvestMacro

The US market ended the session with a moderate decline, although by the close, the main indices had managed to significantly reduce their intraday losses. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.11%. The S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.16%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.71%. The US market ended the session with a moderate decline, although by the close, the main indices had managed to significantly reduce their intraday losses. Investor sentiment was pressured by the April US inflation report, which heightened concerns that high energy prices amid the conflict in the Middle East could worsen corporate profits and force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high for longer. Against this backdrop, shares of major technology companies, including Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Tesla, came under pressure, although Nvidia and Apple managed to close higher. Additional pressure hit the semiconductor sector after reports that South Korea is considering introducing a universal dividend tax, which worsened sentiment around companies linked to artificial‑intelligence infrastructure.

On Tuesday, European stock markets fell sharply amid rising concerns about an energy crisis and increasing inflationary pressure. The failure of negotiations between the US and Iran heightened risks of further escalation and another spike in oil and gas prices, which is particularly painful for the European economy, heavily dependent on energy imports. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.62%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.95%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 1.56%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down by 0.04%. Additional pressure on markets came from accelerating US inflation and political instability in the UK, which triggered a rise in European government‑bond yields and worsened investor sentiment. Meanwhile, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for May rose to 10.2 points, significantly exceeding market expectations and recovering from a more than three‑year low, although the indicator remains in negative territory due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The weakest performance came from the financial and technology sectors. Shares of Banco Santander, BNP Paribas, and ING Group fell sharply amid rising borrowing costs.

On Tuesday, WTI crude prices rose sharply and approached 102 dollars per barrel amid growing fears that the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz may last much longer than markets previously expected. Additional upward momentum came from statements by Donald Trump that the ceasefire between the US and Iran is on “artificial life support,” after Washington rejected Tehran’s new proposal. Investors fear that the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil and LNG shipments, may persist for an extended period, continuing to create a severe supply deficit in the global energy market.
In Asia on Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.53%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed up by 0.42%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.22%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.36%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) fell to 0.72 US dollars but continues to hold near four‑year highs, as investors still expect further tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) amid persistent inflation and high energy prices. The budget for the 2026/27 fiscal year includes deficit reduction and changes to housing taxation, but the main responsibility for containing inflation effectively remains with the central bank. Markets estimate the probability of a June rate hike to 4.35% at around 20%, while the probability of a further increase to 4.6% in August already exceeds 80%.

A Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) survey showed rising inflation expectations among businesses in the second quarter of 2026. Expected inflation for the next two years rose to 2.53% from 2.37% a quarter earlier, reaching its highest level since late 2023. The main factor remains rising fuel prices, which are expected to continue increasing price pressure in the economy. Respondents also expect further monetary tightening: the expectations for the official cash rate (OCR) suggest an increase to 2.34% by the end of June and to 3.01% over the next year. The data strengthen expectations of a more hawkish stance from the RBNZ ahead of the May rate meeting. Additional investor attention is focused on New Zealand’s upcoming 2026 budget, which will be presented on May 28. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon confirmed the government’s intention to return the budget to surplus by 2028-2029 and reduce public debt to 40% of GDP.

On Monday, US stock markets rose moderately. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) increased by 0.19%. The S&P 500 (US500) rose by 0.19%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 0.10%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ once again renewed historical highs thanks to strong growth in semiconductor stocks amid ongoing optimism around demand related to the development of artificial intelligence. Among the top gainers were major technology companies and chip manufacturers. Shares of Micron Technology rose particularly sharply, supported by expectations of a memory‑market shortage due to supply issues and labor disputes among competitors. The energy, industrial, and materials sectors also showed solid performance.

European stock indices ended the session lower for the third consecutive day amid continued pressure from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and related risks to global energy supplies. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.05%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.69%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.21%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up by 0.36%. Market pressure intensified after US President Donald Trump stated that Washington had rejected Iran’s latest counterproposal for resolving the conflict. This increased investor concerns about further escalation and prolonged disruptions to oil and gas exports from the region. The consumer‑goods sector, which is sensitive to geopolitical risks, showed the weakest performance.

WTI oil prices continued to rise, climbing toward 98 dollars per barrel after statements by US President Donald Trump that the current ceasefire between the US and Iran remains extremely unstable. This heightened market fears of possible escalation and the risk of a larger war that could lead to further disruptions in oil supplies from the region. Additional pressure came from the US refusal to accept Iran’s counterproposal for a peace settlement, which reduced expectations of a quick diplomatic resolution. The near‑complete halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to severely disrupt global supplies of crude oil, LNG, and petroleum products, supporting rising energy prices and intensifying inflation risks.

On Tuesday, silver prices (XAG) fell to 85 dollars per ounce, losing part of the gains achieved earlier in the trading session. The market came under pressure from persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which support high oil prices and increase inflation concerns. Despite the current decline, silver remains one of the leaders among precious metals. The day before, prices rose more than 7%, reaching a two‑month high. The market is supported not only by demand for safe‑haven assets but also by expectations of rising industrial consumption of silver, given its wide use in manufacturing and high‑tech industries.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) rose to 2.92 dollars per MMBtu, reaching the highest level in more than six weeks amid reduced production and the restoration of the liquefaction line at the Freeport LNG export terminal. The market is supported by the ongoing decline in production across the 48 US states. Several major producers, including EQT, have reduced output in recent weeks due to low spot prices, gradually tightening supply in the domestic market.
In Asia on Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.47%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed up by 1.38%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.05%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.49%.

The Business Confidence Index from the NAB showed that Australia’s economy continues to face serious pressure from high energy prices and tight monetary policy. Although the confidence indicator in April rose slightly to 24 below zero from the record‑weak 29 below zero a month earlier, business conditions deteriorated to one of the lowest levels since 2020, indicating a slowdown in activity, reduced investment, and worsening business expectations.

On Friday, the US stock indices once again renewed their record highs. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.03% (weekly result +0.39%). The S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.84% (weekly result +2.36%). The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 1.71% (weekly result +2.35%). The markets were supported by strong US labor‑market data: the number of new jobs in April exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged. Over the week, all major indices showed solid growth, supported by strong corporate earnings and the ongoing rally in technology stocks.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to around 1.37 per US dollar, continuing its decline after reaching late‑April highs. Pressure on the currency came from weak Canadian labor‑market data: employment unexpectedly fell, and the unemployment rate rose to its highest level in six months. This strengthened expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will focus on supporting the economy and avoid tightening monetary policy in the near future. The hawkish tone of Banxico is linked to rising inflation risks amid high energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened to around 17.2 per US dollar, approaching its highest levels in nearly two years after signals from the Bank of Mexico about the end of the rate‑cutting cycle. The regulator lowered the rate by 25 basis points to 6.5%, although part of the market expected more aggressive easing. At the same time, the central bank made it clear that further rate cuts are unlikely in the near future.

On Friday, European stock markets continued to decline for the second session in a row amid a new wave of tensions between the US and Iran, which increased concerns about disruptions to Europe’s energy supplies. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.32% (weekly result +0.26%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 1.09% (weekly result -0.12%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.95% (weekly result +0.34%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down by 0.43% (weekly result -1.38%). Key European indices finished in negative territory as reports of attacks on tankers and military vessels undermined investor hopes for a quick diplomatic resolution of the conflict.

On Friday, WTI oil prices remained around $95 per barrel, showing almost no change, as new clashes between the US and Iran increased doubts about the durability of the current ceasefire and reduced expectations of a quick diplomatic settlement. Despite this, oil still fell by about 7% for the week. The main factor for the market remains the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, which has been operating under severe restrictions since late February, disrupting global oil supplies and intensifying the supply deficit.

Platinum prices (XPT) held above $2000 per ounce, remaining near their highest levels since late April, as the ongoing supply deficit continued to support the market despite rising inflation risks due to renewed tensions in the Middle East. Clashes between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz once again cast doubt on the stability of the current ceasefire and increased concerns about disruptions to energy supplies.

In Asia on Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.19% (weekly result +3.60%), China’s FTSE China A50 closed down by 0.90% (weekly result -0.88%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 0.87% (weekly result +0.98%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) dropped by 1.51% (weekly result +0.22%).
On Monday, the offshore yuan was holding at 6.79 per dollar, which is the strongest level for the Chinese currency since February 2023. The market is positively assessing the resilience of China’s economy: despite the logistics crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, exports in April surged by 14.1% to a record 359.44 billion dollars, while imports, driven by strong domestic demand and semiconductor purchases, jumped by 25.3%. Domestic indicators also signal a revival – consumer inflation (CPI) reached 1.2%, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained in positive territory at 2.8%, indicating a recovery in industrial activity. All global market attention is now focused on Beijing, where the Donald Trump-Xi Jinping summit will take place on May 14-15. Investors expect the leaders to agree on a “roadmap” for unblocking the Strait of Hormuz, discuss the status of Taiwan, and lay the foundation for a new trade agreement that may include a dialogue on AI security.

On Friday, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) strengthened again to a two‑month high near 0.596 US dollars, recovering after a decline in the previous session. Employment statistics in New Zealand, published earlier, did not give markets a clear signal and barely changed rate expectations. Investors still assess the probability of a near‑term rate hike as moderate, although a July tightening is already priced in due to rising inflation risks from expensive energy.
In Australia, markets currently assess the probability of a June rate hike by the Reserve Bank (RBA) as low after a series of previous increases. At the same time, expectations of further tightening by the end of the summer remain fairly high, and the projected peak rate is almost fully priced in. The Australian dollar held around 0.72 US dollars after declining in the previous session.

On Thursday, the US stock indices corrected downward after recently updating record highs. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.63%. The S&P 500 (US500) declined by 0.38%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.13%. Amid overall caution, the technology sector came under pressure: shares of Amazon and several major chipmakers declined after strong previous gains.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened against the US currency, retreating from recent multi‑week highs amid expectations of a more dovish policy from the Bank of Canada and falling oil prices. Additional pressure on the Canadian currency came from weak economic data. The latest GDP statistics indicated a slowdown in economic growth after the start of the conflict in the Middle East, which strengthened expectations of a more cautious stance from the central bank.

The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.50%. This is the lowest level since April 2022. The decision, made by a majority vote (3 to 2), appears to mark the end of the monetary‑policy easing cycle that began in March 2024. The main reason for the cut was the contraction of the Mexican economy in the first quarter of 2026. The regulator noted that the slowdown in business activity led to increased idle capacity and, as a result, weakened demand‑driven inflationary pressure. At the same time, the central bank made it clear that the rate‑cutting period is over: amid global geopolitical instability and trade disputes, keeping the rate at 6.50% in the foreseeable future is considered the most appropriate step.

By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.63%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 1.17%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.25%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session down by 1.55%.

The Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank) unexpectedly raised the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, although the market mostly expected it to remain unchanged. The regulator explained the decision by stating that inflation remains too high and may stay elevated longer due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The bank emphasized that tightening policy is necessary to bring inflation back to target within a reasonable timeframe. According to officials, a prolonged period of high prices could anchor inflation expectations among businesses and households, complicating future efforts to control price growth.

Sweden’s Riksbank kept the key rate unchanged at 1.75% for the fifth consecutive time, in line with market expectations. The regulator noted that the current rate level allows for flexible responses to further changes in the economic situation and, if necessary, adjustments to monetary policy to achieve the inflation target. Central bank representatives indicated that risks of accelerating inflation due to the Middle East conflict have increased, but actual price growth remains below target, and recent economic data came in weaker than the March expectations.

On Thursday, WTI oil prices partially recovered after a sharp decline to around $96 per barrel, as markets continued to assess the prospects of supply restoration from Gulf countries. Optimistic statements by Donald Trump about possible progress in negotiations earlier triggered a noticeable drop in oil prices. However, downward pressure on prices remained limited, as market participants doubt a quick recovery of global supply. Another factor is the caution of insurance companies regarding tankers passing through the region after recent attacks. Against this backdrop, supply disruptions have already led to a significant reduction in fuel inventories in the US, where gasoline and distillate reserves have been declining for several weeks in a row.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) rose more than 2%, approaching $2.79 per MMBtu, after storage data showed a weaker‑than‑expected increase. The volume of gas injected into storage came in below both analyst projections and last year’s levels, as well as below multi‑year averages. The market is also factoring in seasonal cooling‑demand growth, which is gradually beginning to outweigh heating needs.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) surged by 5.58% after a long banking holiday, China’s FTSE China A50 closed slightly higher by 0.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.57%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) jumped by 0.96%.

On Wednesday, the US stock markets rose confidently amid improved investor sentiment due to a possible resolution of the conflict with Iran and strong corporate earnings. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) increased by 1.24%. The S&P 500 (US500) rose by 1.46%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 2.02%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq once again renewed record highs. Growth was observed in almost all sectors except energy, which came under pressure due to falling oil prices. The main drivers of the market were companies related to artificial intelligence and data‑center infrastructure. AMD and Super Micro Computer showed particularly strong performance after reporting better‑than‑expected results and raising their projections. Additional support came from strong results by Disney and a positive outlook from Uber, which also boosted their shares.

On Wednesday, European stock markets rose sharply amid falling energy prices, which were driven by expectations of a possible resolution of the conflict in the Middle East. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) jumped by 2.12%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 2.94%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 2.47%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session up positive 2.15%. The decline in oil and gas prices also led to a revision of monetary‑policy expectations: investors began pricing in less aggressive rate hikes, and corporate profit outlooks improved.

On Wednesday, silver (XAG) rose sharply, gaining more than 6% and climbing above $77 per ounce, reaching its highest level in recent weeks. The price increase was driven by easing inflation concerns amid signs of de‑escalation in the Middle East, which put pressure on oil prices. Optimism strengthened after reports of a possible agreement between the US and Iran that could lead to an end to the conflict and the resumption of nuclear negotiations. Against this backdrop, precious metals partially recovered earlier losses, which had been caused by rising energy prices that heightened inflation risks and supported expectations of tighter central‑bank policy.

On Wednesday, WTI oil prices fell sharply, dropping about 6% to around $96 per barrel and continuing the decline that began the previous day. The market came under pressure from growing expectations of diplomatic progress between the US and Iran. Tehran reported that it is considering a US‑backed proposal to end the conflict, and a final response may be delivered through intermediaries soon. Despite signs of de‑escalation, the consequences of the crisis are still being felt: thousands of sailors remain in the region, supply disruptions persist, and high energy prices continue to weigh on global demand, while restoring logistics may take a long time.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was not traded yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 closed up by 1.13%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.22%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) jumped by 1.30%.

According to the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) March meeting, many policymakers considered further rate hikes possible if the energy crisis caused by the conflict around Iran persists. Participants noted that short‑term supply disruptions can be viewed as temporary, but prolonged increases in energy prices could strengthen inflation expectations and lead to more persistent price growth in the economy. Some board members advocated more decisive tightening, emphasizing the need to act without long pauses if the economy avoids a significant slowdown. Despite this, at both the March and subsequent April meetings, the Bank of Japan kept the key rate at 0.75%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) rose above 0.72 US dollars and reached a four‑year high amid a weakening US currency. The Australian dollar was supported by growing optimism around a possible peace agreement in the Middle East, which reduced demand for the dollar as a safe‑haven asset. Meanwhile, domestic economic data came in weaker than expected: in March, Australia unexpectedly recorded a trade deficit for the first time in more than eight years. Additional support for the Australian currency continues to come from the recent central‑bank rate hike to 4.35%.

On Thursday, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) held around 0.595 US dollars after rising more than 1% in the previous session, when the currency reached a two‑month high. The market was supported by increased optimism around a possible peace agreement between the US and Iran, which boosted investor interest in riskier assets. Domestic labor‑market data in New Zealand were mixed and did little to change monetary‑policy expectations. Unemployment fell slightly more than expected, but employment growth was weaker than expected. The market still sees the probability of a near‑term rate hike as relatively low, although tightening in the summer is still priced in due to persistent inflation risks linked to high energy prices.

On Tuesday, the US stock indices renewed their historical highs amid a combination of strong corporate earnings and declining energy prices. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.73%. The S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.81%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 1.31%. The decline in oil prices became an important factor – it partially eased inflation concerns. This occurred against the backdrop of geopolitical signals indicating relative stability in the Middle East despite recent attacks.

The macroeconomic picture remains mixed: JOLTS data confirm the resilience of the labor market, while business activity indicators point to persistent price pressure. This supports a more hawkish tone from some Federal Reserve representatives and maintains uncertainty regarding the future trajectory of monetary policy. At the company level, Intel stood out with growth amid news of possible cooperation with Apple. Micron shares also rose significantly thanks to new products, and Amazon received support due to the development of its logistics operations. Meanwhile, Palantir declined due to investor disappointment in its expectations, and AMD came under pressure ahead of its earnings release.

In Europe, by the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) jumped by 1.31%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 1.08%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 1.80% on Friday, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session down by 1.40%. The improvement in sentiment was largely driven by falling global energy prices amid expectations of progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Additional support came from stronger‑than‑expected quarterly corporate results.

The Swiss franc (CHF) held near 0.78 per US dollar, remaining close to historical highs. The currency is supported both by expectations regarding Swiss National Bank policy and by steady demand for safe‑haven assets amid geopolitical tensions. Recent data showed that inflation in Switzerland accelerated to 0.6% in April – the highest level in 16 months. The main factor was rising energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. This is the second consecutive acceleration of inflation, and the figure exceeded the regulator’s average estimates of 0.5% for the current and next years. The franc continues to benefit from a combination of its “safe haven” status and the relative stability of the domestic macroeconomic environment.

On Tuesday, WTI oil prices fell by about 4% and dropped below $102 per barrel, losing the gains of the previous session. Pressure on prices came from statements by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that the ceasefire with Iran remains in place despite recent attacks on the UAE. An additional factor was confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz remains open: according to Hegseth, two US commercial vessels successfully passed through it with military support, which repelled attacks using drones, missiles, and armed boats. This reduced market concerns about potential disruptions in oil supplies.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was not traded yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 was also not traded yesterday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by-0.50%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.19%.

In the first quarter of 2026, Hong Kong’s economy delivered a phenomenal result, recording growth of 5.9% year‑on‑year. This figure not only exceeded conservative analyst expectations of 3.5%, but also became the strongest economic surge for the autonomy since the second quarter of 2021, accelerating from 4.0% at the end of last year. In quarterly terms, seasonally adjusted Hong Kong GDP increased by 2.9%, which is also a five‑year high. Against the backdrop of tight monetary policy tied to Federal Reserve rates due to the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the US dollar, such resilience looks like a strong signal of a full recovery of the Asian financial hub.

In the May Financial Stability Report, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman stated that the national financial system remains highly resilient amid escalating global threats. According to the regulator, the country’s commercial banks have solid capital and liquidity buffers, confirmed by recent stress tests. This allows the banking sector to continue lending to the economy and helping borrowers cope with pressure in foreign funding markets in case the situation worsens. However, the prolonged armed conflict between the US and Iran has already begun to slow New Zealand’s emerging economic recovery. Rising fuel prices and overall uncertainty are hitting consumer activity, worsening labor‑market projections.

On Monday, the US stock market declined. By the end of the session, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 1.13%, the S&P 500 (US500) dropped 0.41%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.19% lower. The market came under pressure from a sharp rise in oil prices amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, which intensified investor concerns about further inflation acceleration. Tensions surged after an exchange of strikes between the US and Iran. The situation worsened following statements from Donald Trump about plans to ensure safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, to which Tehran responded with threats against US forces. Against this backdrop, commodity and industrial sectors performed the worst, while energy companies posted gains.

European stock markets fell sharply amid escalating US-Iran tensions, which heightened fears of an energy crisis and its economic consequences. Germany’s DAX (DE40) dropped 1.24%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.71% lower, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined 2.39%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) slipped 0.14%. Eurozone and pan‑European indices came under pressure as rising geopolitical tensions triggered another spike in oil prices and tightened financial conditions. Reports of mutual attacks and military actions in the Persian Gulf increased uncertainty, pushing bond yields higher and strengthening expectations of further ECB tightening. The banking sector suffered from rising borrowing costs, while higher electricity prices weighed on industrial and tech companies. An additional negative factor was the US announcement of new tariffs on European cars, which dragged down automaker stocks and deepened the market sell‑off.
WTI crude rose about 3%, approaching $105 per barrel amid a sharp escalation in the Middle East. The trigger was a confrontation between US and Iranian forces near the Strait of Hormuz: according to US reports, Iran launched cruise missiles at military and commercial vessels, while American forces intercepted drones and small boats to protect shipping routes. Additional concerns were fueled by reports of intercepted missiles, a fire at the Fujairah oil terminal, and a drone strike on a tanker near the strait – one of the first significant incidents involving infrastructure in recent weeks.

Silver fell more than 2%, dropping toward $73 per ounce and partially correcting its previous rally. The metal came under pressure from rising geopolitical tensions, which revived fears of accelerating inflation. The prolonged conflict has already driven energy prices sharply higher, increasing the risk of prolonged or even tighter monetary policy. Since the start of the confrontation, silver has lost roughly one‑fifth of its value.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) and China’s FTSE China A50 were closed on Monday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped 1.24%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.37%.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) fell to 0.71 USD, losing support after the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. Although the RBA raised the cash rate for the third consecutive time, by 25 basis points to 4.35%, the highest since the post‑pandemic spike, the regulator’s tone was softer than expected. The decision passed with an 8-1 vote, but policymakers hinted at a possible pause and a “data‑dependent” approach, disappointing AUD buyers who expected a stronger signal for continued tightening. Geopolitical tensions added further pressure: the threat of escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and renewed oil supply disruptions triggered a flight to the US dollar as a safe‑haven asset.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) fell to 0.586 USD amid a sharp escalation of the geopolitical crisis. A direct military clash between US and Iranian forces in the Persian Gulf, with the involvement of the UAE, jeopardized the four‑week ceasefire and crushed investor appetite for risk assets. Market attention is now focused on Wednesday’s release of New Zealand’s Q1 labor‑market report. Investors are trying to assess how severely the national economy has been affected by the energy shock.

On Friday, the US stock market posted a sharp rise. By the end of the session, the Dow Jones (US30) slipped 0.31%, while the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.29%. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq 100 (US100) closed 0.94% higher. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 updated their all‑time highs. Apple shares rose more than 3% thanks to strong earnings and upbeat guidance, supported by robust iPhone sales and stable performance in the Chinese market. In the energy sector, ExxonMobil and Chevron posted moderate gains after reporting profits above expectations. Tech stocks remained in focus as well: Meta stabilized after recent declines, and Nvidia added over 1% amid ongoing discussions about AI‑related investment prospects.

In the first week of May, investors will face a new wave of corporate earnings, with major companies from technology, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and entertainment set to report. At the same time, market attention will shift to US macroeconomic data, with a full set of labor‑market indicators scheduled for release. These include the April nonfarm payrolls report, ADP employment data, Q1 productivity and labor‑cost figures, and job‑openings statistics. Expectations point to slower job growth compared to March, moderate wage acceleration, and unemployment remaining broadly unchanged.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) surpassed $80,000, hitting a three‑month high amid a broad rally in risk assets. Investor sentiment was boosted by progress in the US Senate on stablecoin regulation, seen as a key step toward legitimizing the digital assets industry. Institutional demand also supported the move: US spot ETFs recorded $630 million in weekly inflows, underscoring the asset’s resilience after a 12% gain in April. Geopolitical tensions remain extremely high. Donald Trump’s statement about providing military escort for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz triggered a sharp protest from Tehran, which viewed it as a violation of the ceasefire. Despite ongoing volatility in the conflict zone weighing on traditional markets, Bitcoin continues to act as “digital gold” and an alternative risk asset, largely ignoring escalation risks.

Most European markets were closed on Friday due to a banking holiday. The only major index trading was the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100), which ended the day 0.14% lower. After a busy end to April, marked by key economic data, central‑bank decisions, and corporate earnings, Europe’s early‑May agenda will be somewhat calmer. With rate‑hold decisions already announced, attention will shift to the next steps from regulators: central banks of Sweden and Norway will publish their decisions, while the ECB will release analytical materials and projections accompanied by speeches from policymakers. A key macroeconomic event will be Germany’s foreign‑trade data, where a decline in the trade surplus is expected due to higher energy prices and increased imports. Additional insight into industrial conditions will come from production and order figures, which may show signs of recovery. The UK will release housing‑market data, while Switzerland will publish inflation, unemployment, and consumer‑sentiment indicators. Meanwhile, earnings season continues for major European companies in the banking, industrial, and energy sectors.

On Friday, WTI crude prices fell to nearly $101 per barrel, partially giving back weekly gains amid rising expectations that the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran may evolve into a more stable agreement. Reports emerged of a new proposal from Tehran, and Donald Trump noted progress in negotiations, though he expressed doubts about reaching a final deal. Markets are also watching the political dimension: the US president faces a 60‑day limit under the War Powers Act, requiring either congressional approval or troop withdrawal. The administration maintains that the ceasefire has effectively halted active hostilities. Since the conflict began in late February, oil prices have surged nearly 60%, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz significantly reduced global supply.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose 0.38% on Friday. China’s FTSE China A50 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) were closed, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.74%.

This week in China, market attention will focus on April foreign‑trade data, which will help assess the impact of the Middle East conflict on the country’s economy, as well as private‑sector activity indicators, including services PMIs. In Japan, investors will analyze the minutes of the March central‑bank meeting for clues on future policy and monitor wage‑growth trends.

In Australia, another rate hike is expected amid rising inflationary pressures linked to global risks. Across the region, a large batch of macroeconomic releases is scheduled, including inflation, GDP, labor‑market data, foreign‑trade figures, and manufacturing PMIs, offering a broader view of economic conditions in Asia and neighboring regions.