Archive for Economics & Fundamentals – Page 3

The backlash against diversity, equity and inclusion in business is in full force − but myths obscure the real value of DEI

By Adia Harvey Wingfield, Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis 

Few ideas in business are as misunderstood as DEI.

While opposition to DEI – diversity, equity and inclusion – has a long history, it has picked up steam recently.

In 2023, when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, detractors claimed that the bank’s focus on DEI was responsible – rather than the bank overinvesting in bonds that suddenly lost much of their value.

Not long afterward, when a wall panel detached from an Alaska Airlines flight at 16,000 feet, opponents claimed without evidence that DEI’s corrosive effects were to blame.

More recently, when a cargo ship lost power and slammed into Baltimore’s Key Bridge, critics suggested that DEI was somehow at fault.

In the face of these attacks, many company leaders are troublingly silent about their commitment to DEI. I believe this is a mistake. It allows misrepresentations to take root, and it reinforces the exclusion and marginalization many workers of color already experience.

As a sociologist who focuses on race, gender and work, I believe this is a pivotal moment for companies to reinforce their commitment to DEI.

A history of DEI

For starters, it’s useful to take stock of how American companies moved to DEI in the first place, and how diversity practices are typically structured.

For the overwhelming majority of U.S. history, workers who weren’t white men weren’t just legally banned from leadership roles; they could be barred from holding any role in an organization.

The formal exclusion of women of all races and men of color didn’t become illegal until the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. That means that for nearly 200 years after the country’s founding, white men had virtually unrestricted and exclusive access to the levels of power in all organizations.

The objective, meritocratic past that DEI critics imagine is thus a myth. The centuries-long, systematic exclusion of white women and people of color gives lie to the idea that jobs have historically gone only to the most qualified.

After the Civil Rights Act, companies moved to address the new reality that the racial and gender discrimination that had been practiced with impunity for generations was now illegal. Affirmative action policies were one way organizations sought to address past and ongoing discrimination, and many companies, at least for a time, sought to close racial and gender disparities.

But by the 1980s, backlash to these goals was ascendant. Legal decisions such as the Supreme Court’s 1978 Bakke ruling allowed organizations to consider race as one of many factors when they evaluated applicants but specifically outlawed the use of quotas. Companies could thus consider race as part of a package but, contrary to popular opinion, could not hire candidates simply because they were Black (or from another marginalized group).

They could, however, consider diversity as a compelling interest that justified using race as one of a variety of factors in making decisions about hiring. A company that had no Black workers on its entire staff could thus seek to diversify, taking race into account alongside experience, qualifications, education and other criteria when considering a candidate.

What this hypothetical company could not do is simply hire a Black worker based exclusively on their race.

Diversity initiatives today

In the wake of ongoing backlash, most companies today have moved even further from trying to alleviate ongoing racial and gender disparities. Instead, they embrace the form of DEI that’s under harsh criticism today.

But today’s DEI doesn’t necessarily entail a focus on hiring or promoting more Black workers. It doesn’t even always focus on race. Instead, many DEI managers have sought to focus their efforts more broadly on diversity of thought, region or opinion as a way to avoid the kind of pushback they’re encountering today.

Additionally, companies often rely heavily on DEI practices such as mandatory diversity training or brief workshops with external consultants that actually depress the numbers of Black workers – and other workers of color – in leadership roles.

Today’s critics cast DEI as unfairly advantaging unqualified Black workers, but the reality is that companies stopped focusing on closing racial disparities long ago.

The numbers bear this out. While white men constitute only 30% of the U.S. population, as of 2017 they made up 80% of members of Congress, 85% of corporate executive officers, 95% of Fortune 500 CEOs and 97% of heads of venture capital firms.

The business case for diversity

Clearly, DEI is not reshaping America’s most powerful institutions in a way that places significant numbers of Black workers in leadership roles.

Instead, researchers know that obstacles such as hiring discrimination, wage inequality, hostile organizational cultures and blocked routes to advancement still persist for highly qualified, skilled and motivated Black workers.

The irony is that the data shows very clearly that diversity is correlated with clear benefits to organizations. Companies with more racial and gender diversity among managers boast more profitability and more innovation than those without. They have advantages in recruitment, employee satisfaction and responding to market changes and consumer needs.

Organizations that are genuinely committed to DEI aren’t losing sight of the big picture; rather, they’re investing in their long-term financial success.

For purely self-interested reasons, then, companies should be offering a full-throated defense of DEI. Instead, they’ve been in retreat.

For example, law firms are walking back programs designed to attract lawyers of color, even though the legal profession is overwhelmingly made up of white workers. Similarly, efforts to increase venture capital funding to Black women are under attack, even though in 2018 less than 1% of a total of US$130 billion raised went to firms headed by women of color. And major tech companies are shifting resources away from post-2020 investments in DEI, even though Black workers remain significantly underrepresented in that industry as well.

DEI practices that work

It doesn’t have to be this way. Companies can still rely on evidence-based DEI practices that show results. One approach involves establishing mentoring programs that are open to everyone. Another is cross-training workers so they can build their skills in various parts of a company while at the same time broadening their networks. And a third tack includes investing in flexible, family-friendly workplace policies that send a message to workers that they and their needs matter.

None of these programs are reserved for members of any particular racial group, so they’re within the bounds of the law. The beauty of this approach is that even though these initiatives are race-neutral, research indicates they benefit workers of color more than mandating annual diversity training.

In addition to using measures like these that work, I believe it’s important for corporate leaders to stand up for DEI precisely because it’s under threat.

Some are doing this already. Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase recently described himself as a “full-throated, red-blooded, patriotic, unwoke, capitalist CEO” who still plans to maintain the bank’s commitment to DEI, particularly when it comes to the approaches that are shown to net results. The celebrity businessman Mark Cuban has been similarly outspoken in support of DEI, unequivocally describing it as “good for business.”

Given that research shows workforce diversity helps companies boost profits, it’s surprising to me that more leaders don’t take this approach. The alternative is letting a false narrative that imperils their growth go unchallenged.The Conversation

About the Author:

Adia Harvey Wingfield, Professor of Sociology, Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Singapore’s central bank (MAS) maintained its monetary policy settings. The ECB hinted at a rate cut soon

By JustMarkets 

At the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.01%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.74%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive at 1.68% yesterday. Strength in technology stocks led the overall market higher on Thursday. Apple (AAPL) climbed more than 4% after it said it plans to upgrade its entire line of Mac computers with its proprietary processors designed for artificial intelligence. In addition, shares of chip companies rose Thursday on speculation that upcoming first-quarter earnings results will show strong demand for microchips.

The US Producer Price Index (displays the inflation rate between factories) for March rose by 0.2% m/m and 2.1% y/y in the US, slightly weaker than expectations of 0.3% m/m and 2.2% y/y. However, the core PPI (excluding food and energy) accelerated to 2.4% y/y from 2.0% y/y in February, slightly stronger than expectations of 2.3% y/y and the largest increase in 7 months. US weekly initial jobless claims fell by 11,000 to a 5-week low of 211,000, indicating a strengthening labor market versus expectations of 215,000. New York Fed President Williams said the Fed has made tremendous progress in balancing inflation and employment, but there is no need to lower interest rates soon. FRB Richmond President Barkin said the Fed still has some work to do to contain price pressures and could take its time in lowering interest rates. FRB Boston President Collins added that recent data has eased concerns about adjusting interest rates, although she still expects rate cuts to begin later this year.

Corporate earnings season for the first quarter begins today with results from major banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC). The consensus expects first-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies to rise an average of 3.8% quarter over quarter.

Equity markets in Europe declined on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.79% yesterday, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.27% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.16%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.47% on Thursday.

The European Central Bank left key interest rates unchanged and hinted at the possibility of a rate cut if upcoming forecasts indicate inflationary pressures are easing. Lagarde’s speech was soft and had a dovish bias. Still, the policymaker emphasized that the ECB is not committing to a specific rate trajectory and that future decisions will be data-driven.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $86 a barrel on Friday, recovering most of the previous session’s losses, as the prospect of a wider conflict in the Middle East continued to heighten fears of further supply disruptions. Israel is reportedly preparing for a direct attack from Iran in the next 24-48 hours, as Tehran has previously pledged to retaliate to an alleged Israeli attack on its embassy in Syria. The latest rounds of ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas have also failed, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying they will continue the war in Gaza.

Natural gas prices for May fell sharply on Thursday due to a larger-than-expected 24 Bcf increase in EIA natural gas inventories last week, which exceeded expectations of 15 Bcf. As of March 29, the US natural gas inventories were 38.9% above the 5-year seasonal average, indicating an oversupply of natural gas.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.35%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.16%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.26% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.44%.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has maintained its April 2024 monetary policy rate target, extending the pause for the fourth straight month amid heightened cost pressures. The Authority said it will maintain the prevailing pace of appreciation in the nominal effective exchange rate of the Singapore dollar. The central bank said it expects the country’s GDP growth to be 1% to 3% this year, supported by a recovery in the manufacturing and financial sectors and normalization in domestic-oriented sectors. Meanwhile, MAS forecasts that the preferred core inflation rate will remain high in the coming quarters before declining in Q4 2024 and 2025. In January-February, core inflation averaged 3.4% on an annualized basis

At its April meeting, the Bank of Korea kept the benchmark rate at 3.5%, as expected. It was the tenth consecutive meeting to keep borrowing costs unchanged, with the central bank emphasizing the need for further progress on price stability before considering monetary easing. Inflation was 3.1% in March, mainly driven by higher agricultural and global oil prices, while core inflation eased to 2.4% from 2.6% in February.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,199.06 +38.42 (+0.74%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,459.08 −2.43 (−0.01%)

DAX (DE40) 18,097.30 −142.82 (−0.79%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,923.80 −37.41 (−0.47%)

USD Index 105.27 +0.02 (+0.02%)

Important events today:
  • – China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Indian Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The Bank of Canada maintained its monetary policy settings. The FOMC minutes showed that policymakers will not be in a hurry to cut rates

By JustMarkets

At the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 1.09%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.95%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative 0.84%. A sharp rise in bond yields pressured equities yesterday after the March US Consumer Price Index exceeded expectations for the third consecutive month, reinforcing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will not rush to cut interest rates. The annualized US inflation rate was 3.5% in March 2024, the highest since September, up from 3.2% in February and forecasts of 3.4%. In addition, core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.4% m/m to 3.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of 0.3% m/m and 3.7% y/y. Fed swap prices are now pricing in only a 50 bps rate cut this year, less than the Fed’s recent 75 bps dot plot. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 3% at the next FOMC meeting on May 1 and just 21% (vs. 70% last week) at the next meeting on June 12.

Minutes from the March FOMC meeting showed that the Federal Reserve does not believe it is appropriate to lower the target range until there is confidence that inflation is moving steadily toward 2%. The central bank still closely monitors inflation risks but expects to see some unevenness in monthly inflation readings as inflation returns to target. The so-called dot plot showed policymakers still plan to cut interest rates three times this year, matching quarterly forecasts made in December.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its key rate at 5%, as expected, and refrained from hinting at the start of rate cuts because of lingering upside risks to inflation. The central bank noted that price pressures have eased across a wide range of goods and services since the last meeting but added that an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop and higher-than-expected commodity prices, including oil, prevent disinflation from converging more smoothly. Bank of Canada Governor Macklem added that while recent data indicate some progress in containing core inflation, it is still insufficient to justify monetary easing with confidence. As such, the Bank of Canada expects inflation to remain around 3% in the first half of this year and not reach the 2% target until 2025.

Equity markets in Europe traded without a single dynamic on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.11%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.05%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.38%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.33% on Wednesday.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold a monetary policy meeting today. Market participants expect the ECB to leave the key rate unchanged at 4.5%. After last month’s meeting, the Eurozone economy has gained momentum but is still close to recession. Therefore, the ECB will likely want to get an update on inflation and labor market data before embarking on full-blown easing. Most of the central bank’s recent statements hint that a key rate cut in June is a real possibility. Therefore, given current market speculation, there is a risk that Lagarde’s statement and press conference will be less dovish than financial markets expect. In that case, the euro could get a boost to growth. But if Lagarde’s statement is confidently dovish with a hint of a real rate cut in June, the euro will continue to decline.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $85.7 a barrel on Wednesday, breaking a two-day decline, as the market reacted to the news from Gaza. Several important Hamas figures were killed in an Israeli airstrike, which could complicate ceasefire talks. Tensions in the Middle East ran high, with Israel warning OPEC representative Iran that it will attack the Islamic Republic if Tehran strikes Israel, with the US reportedly confident of an imminent strike by Iran or its supporters on Israel. The EIA reported a 5.841 million barrel rise in inventories on Wednesday, beating market expectations for a 2.366 million barrel increase.

Asian markets traded without any unified dynamics. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.48% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.42%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 1.85% overnight and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.31%. Asian equity markets fell on Thursday, following a sharp decline on Wall Street overnight. Investors also priced in data that China’s consumer prices rose less than expected in March, while producer prices fell by the most in four months. Chinese consumer prices were 0.1% y/y in March 2024, compared to market forecasts of 0.4% y/y, after rising to 0.7% in the previous month. China’s lower-than-expected inflation numbers have bolstered bets on further policy easing from the PBoC.

Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on China’s sovereign credit rating to negative from stable while affirming its A+ rating amid growing concerns about the outlook for the country’s public finances. The agency cited large budget deficits and a sharp rise in government debt in recent years as undermining fiscal reserves from a rating perspective.

The Japanese yen hit a new 34-year low. Traders are now expecting currency intervention from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), seeing the 152-153 per dollar exchange rate as a potential catalyst. On Tuesday, Finance Minister Shun’ichi Suzuki said that the authorities do not rule out any measures against excessive yen movement.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,160.64 −49.27 (-0.95%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,461.51 −422.16 (−1.09%)

DAX (DE40) 18,097.30 +20.61 (+0.11%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,961.21 +26.42 (+0.33%)

USD Index 105.17 +1.03 (+0.99%)

Important events today:
  • – China Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China Producer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Target Thursdays: Bitcoin, US400, RUS2000, and EURGBP

By ForexTime 

  • Bitcoin still climbing this CPI week; up over 2%/$1,600 since Sunday
  • US400 and RUS2000 stock indices showed larger-CPI reactions, as predicted
  • FXTM Trading Signals: EURGBP reaches all 4 Targets

 

The monthly US CPI release has come and gone.

The highly-anticipated set of US economic data exceeded market expectations by 0.1 percentage points each:

  • Headline CPI in March 2024 vs. March 2023 (year-on-year): 3.5%
    Higher than the forecasted 3.4%; higher than February’s 3.2% year-on-year figure
  • Headline CPI in March 2024 vs. February 2024 (month-on-month): 0.4%
    Higher than the forecasted 0.3%; higher than February’s 0.4% month-on-month figure
  • Core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) year-on-year: 3.8%
    Higher than the forecasted 3.7%; matching February’s 3.8% year-on-year figure
  • Core CPI month-on-month: 0.4%
    Higher than the forecasted 0.3%; matching February’s 0.4% month-on-month figure

The higher-than-expected CPI numbers pushed back bets that the Fed can cut US interest rates as soon as June 2024.

 

As we’d written about extensively, this CPI numbers certainly jolted various asset classes on Wednesday, April 10th.

Now, we look back at a couple of instruments that performed as per outlined in our recently published Daily Market Analysis articles:

 

 

1) Bitcoin still rising so far this CPI week

What we wrote:

So far in 2024, cryptos have risen every week that the highly-anticipated US inflation data is released!

(Trade of the Week: Cryptos to rise again this CPI week?; published Monday, April 8th)

 

What’s happened since?

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has risen by over 2% (or about $1600) so far this week since Sunday’s closing price of $69,315.13.

Even though other risk assets (such as stocks) fell after the hotter-than-expected US CPI, Bitcoin managed to rebound after its own initial post-CPI selloff.

If Bitcoin can continue shrugging off the US CPI’s impact and adhere to this trend of posting a weekly advance for each week so far in 2024 that has featured a US CPI announcement, that could translate into further gains for Bitcoin bulls for the rest of this week.

Still, the astute trader would note the stubborn resistance region around $71,400 which has capped Bitcoin’s upside since week of March 25th.

The world’s oldest crypto has to vanquish the $71,400 resistance in order to have another shot at posting a new record high.

 

 

 

2) US400 and RUS2000 indices saw massive post-CPI moves

What we wrote:

“On CPI days, the US400 typically sees a 39% larger-than-average move, which translates into 13 index points higher than average (average: 34 index points).
“On CPI days, the RUS2000 typically sees a 27.8% larger-than-average move, which translates into 7 index points higher than average (average: 25 index points).
” … stock markets may be pulled back lower if US inflation is proving stubborn, …”

(“Smaller” US stock indexes, bigger CPI reactions?; published Tuesday, April 9th)

 

What’s happened since?

  • US400

This mid-sized US stock index posted a 93.8 index point difference between its highest and lowest traded prices in the 1 hour immediately following the US CPI release.

Those 93.8 index points are almost 3x the average daily intraday difference (highest price – lowest price) of 34 index points over the past 12 months.

 

  • RUS2000

This “small” US stock index posted a 86 index point difference between its highest and lowest traded prices in the 1 hour immediately following the US CPI release.

Those 86 index points are MORE THAN TRIPLE the average daily intraday difference (highest price – lowest price) of 25 index points over the past 12 months.

 

Given that massive post-CPI move downwards for US stock indices, as was expected in light of the hotter-than-expected US inflation data …

This would’ve been a major payoff for those who had “short” positions (bet that prices would go down) on either the US400 or RUS2000 stock indices!

 

 

 

3) FXTM Trading Signals: EURGBP bags over 100 points

Every week day, we publish the FXTM Trading Signals twice daily:

  • EU session: 6:00AM GMT
  • US session: 12:30PM GMT

This EURGBP signal, published just today (Thursday EU session), has already reached all 4 Targets!

NOTE: FXTM Trading Signals are available for clients under the MyFXTM portal (published within the Trading Services section)

 

FXTM Signal: EURGBP M15 – how it started …

 

FXTM Signal: EURGBP M15 – how it ended …

 

But wait, there could be more volatility ahead for EURGBP!

The European Central Bank (ECB) is due to announce its policy decision at 12:15PM GMT later today (Thursday, April 11th)

To be clear, markets roundly expect the ECB to leave its benchmark rates unchanged at its record high of 4%.

However, markets will be keen to find out if the ECB is now more certain about CUTTING its benchmark rates by 25-basis points in June 2024.

Such clues may be derived out of ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference due at 12:45PM GMT, which is 30 minutes after the ECB’s policy announcement.

 

EURGBP: Potential Post-ECB Scenarios

  • If President Lagarde lends further credence to the thought of a June rate cut by the ECB, that could prompt EURGBP to revisit the 0.8550 level.
  • However, if President Lagarde unexpectedly pushes back against bets for a June rate cut, that should trigger a greater rebound for EURGBP back above the 0.8570 line.

 

 

Feel like you missed out on these profits?

You can keep following our “Daily Market Analysis” for fresh trading ideas and opportunities across global financial markets.


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Brain scans of Philly jazz musicians reveal secrets to reaching creative flow

By John Kounios, Drexel University and Yvette Kounios, Widener University 

Flow, or being “in the zone,” is a state of amped-up creativity, enhanced productivity and blissful consciousness that, some psychologists believe, is also the secret to happiness. It’s considered the brain’s fast track to success in business, the arts or any other field.

But in order to achieve flow, a person must first develop a strong foundation of expertise in their craft. That’s according to a new neuroimaging study from Drexel University’s Creativity Research Lab, which recruited Philly-area jazz guitarists to better understand the key brain processes that underlie flow. Once expertise is attained, the study found, this knowledge must be unleashed and not overthought in order for flow to be reached.

As a cognitive neuroscientist who is senior author of this study, and a university writing instructor, we are a husband-and-wife team who collaborated on a book about the science of creative insight. We believe that this new neuroscience research reveals practical strategies for enhancing, as well as elucidating, innovative thinking.

Jazz musicians in flow

The concept of flow has fascinated creative people ever since pioneering psychological scientist Mihály Csíkszentmihályi began investigating the phenomenon in the 1970s.

Yet, a half-century of behavioral research has not answered many basic questions about the brain mechanisms associated with the feeling of effortless attention that exemplifies flow.

The Drexel experiment pitted two conflicting theories of flow against each other to see which better reflects what happens in people’s brains when they generate ideas. One theory proposes that flow is a state of intensive hyperfocus on a task. The other theory hypothesizes that flow involves relaxing one’s focus or conscious control.

The team recruited 32 jazz guitarists from the Philadelphia area. Their level of experience ranged from novice to veteran, as quantified by the number of public performances they had given. The researchers placed electrode caps on their heads to record their EEG brain waves while they improvised to chord sequences and rhythms that were provided to them.

Young man plays guitar while wearing helmet covered in electrodes that measure brain activity
Postdoctoral researcher Yongtaek Oh plays guitar while his EEG is recorded in Drexel University’s Creativity Research Lab.
John Kounios/Creativity Research Lab/Drexel University, CC BY-ND

Jazz improvisation is a favorite vehicle for cognitive psychologists and neuroscientists who study creativity because it is a measurable real-world task that allows for divergent thinking – the generation of multiple ideas over time.

The musicians themselves rated the degree of flow that they experienced during each performance, and those recordings were later played for expert judges who rated them for creativity.

Train intensively, then surrender

As jazz great Charlie Parker is said to have advised, “You’ve got to learn your instrument, then, you practice, practice, practice. And then, when you finally get up there on the bandstand, forget all that and just wail.”

This sentiment aligns with the Drexel study findings. The performances that the musicians self-rated as high in flow were also judged by the outside experts as more creative. Furthermore, the most experienced musicians rated themselves as being in flow more than the novices, suggesting that experience is a precondition for flow. Their brain activity revealed why.

The musicians who were experiencing flow while performing showed reduced activity in parts of their frontal lobes known to be involved in executive function or cognitive control. In other words, flow was associated with relaxing conscious control or supervision over other parts of the brain.

And when the most experienced musicians performed while in a state of flow, their brains showed greater activity in areas known to be involved in hearing and vision, which makes sense given that they were improvising while reading the chord progressions and listening to rhythms provided to them.

In contrast, the least experienced musicians showed very little flow-related brain activity.

Flow vs. nonflow creativity

We were surprised to learn that flow-state creativity is very different from nonflow creativity.

Previous neuroimaging studies suggested that ideas are usually produced by the default-mode network, a group of brain areas involved in introspection, daydreaming and imagining the future. The default-mode network spews ideas like an unattended garden hose spouts water, without direction. The aim is provided by the executive-control network, residing primarily in the brain’s frontal lobe, which acts like a gardener who points the hose to direct the water where it is needed.

Slide showing views of brain with different areas lit
Views of left and right sides of the brain showing reduced brain activity when experienced musicians were in a state of high flow. These areas include key nodes of the brain’s default-mode network.
John Kounios/Creativity Research Lab/Drexel University, CC BY-ND

Creative flow is different: no hose, no gardener. The default-mode and executive-control networks are tamped down so that they cannot interfere with the separate brain network that highly experienced people have built up for producing ideas in their field of expertise.

For example, knowledgeable but relatively inexperienced computer programmers may have to reason their way through every line of code. Veteran coders, however, tapping their specialized brain network for computer programming, may just start writing code fluently without overthinking it until they complete – perhaps in one sitting – a first-draft program.

Coaching can be a help or hindrance

The findings that expertise and the ability to surrender cognitive control are key to reaching flow are supported by a 2019 study from the Creativity Research Lab. For that study, jazz musicians were asked to play “more creatively.” Given that direction, the nonexpert musicians were indeed able to improvise more creatively. That is apparently because their improvisation was largely under conscious control and could therefore be adjusted to meet the demand. For example, during debriefing, one of the novice performers said, “I wouldn’t use these techniques instinctively, so I had to actively choose to play more creatively.”

On the other hand, the expert musicians, whose creative process was baked in through decades of experience, were not able to perform more creatively after being asked to do so. As one of the experts put it, “I felt boxed-in, and trying to think more creatively was a hindrance.”

The takeaway for musicians, writers, designers, inventors and other creatives who want to tap into flow is that training should involve intensive practice followed by learning to step back and let one’s skill take over. Future research may develop possible methods for releasing control once sufficient expertise has been achieved.The Conversation

About the Author:

John Kounios, Professor of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Drexel University and Yvette Kounios, Adjunct Instructor of English and Professional Writing, Widener University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The RBNZ kept the interest rate at 5.5%. Intel plans to compete with Nvidia in AI chips

By JustMarkets

At the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.02%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.14%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.32% yesterday. Tuesday afternoon saw the emergence of short positions amid comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who said he sees one Fed rate cut this year but is willing to change his mind toward additional rate cuts if the economic picture changes. In addition, weakness in industrial stocks, insurance companies, and telecommunication companies harmed the overall market.

Today, the US will release its monthly consumer inflation report. This report will affect the likelihood of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in June. Economists expect core inflation, which excludes food and fuel costs, to slow to 3.7% year-over-year from 3.8% in the previous month. However, overall inflation may rise to 3.2% y/y from 3.4% y/y. If the data comes out in line with forecasts, it would mean a mixed report for the US Fed. A decline in the core indicator (excluding food and energy prices) would indicate a continuation of the overall disinflation trend, while a rise in the overall indicator would likely reflect higher oil prices over the past month. Any surprise in the form of continued inflationary pressures will support the US dollar, especially as FOMC policymakers again discussed the possibility of holding rates longer on the back of strong economic data. While economists had previously planned for 3 rate cuts by the US Fed this year, they are now planning for 1-2 total cuts. This will be a green light for the dollar, putting pressure on risk assets, indices, and partly gold. However, gold could rise even as the dollar rises, which is rare. If the data comes out below expectations (inflation will fall more than the market expects), it will increase the probability of a rate cut in June, which will put pressure on the US dollar and lead to the growth of risk assets (euro, pound, franc), as well as support stock indices.

Nvidia (NVDA) closed down more than 2% after Intel said it is bringing to market a new artificial intelligence chip called Gaudi 3. Intel CEO Gelsinger said it will be faster and more energy efficient than Nvidia’s H100 chip and will be priced “well below” the cost of current and future Nvidia chips.

The first quarter corporate earnings season kicks off this Friday with the release of results from major banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC). The consensus expects S&P 500 companies to average 3.9% y/y earnings growth in Q1, the lowest year-over-year earnings growth rate since 2019.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) will meet today. Markets are pricing at a 15% chance of a rate cut, so the BoCis is unlikely to cut rates at this meeting due to concerns about wage-led inflation. However, the BoC may give clearer signals that a rate cut will happen this summer. Oil prices will also influence the Canadian dollar, with any escalation in the Middle East likely to benefit the oil-exporting currency.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.32%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.86% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.88%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.11% on Tuesday.

In its quarterly bank lending review, the ECB reported that demand for corporate credit in the Eurozone fell significantly in the first quarter as the region continues to suffer from elevated borrowing costs.

WTI crude oil prices traded near $85 a barrel on Wednesday after falling for two consecutive sessions. A larger-than-expected increase in US crude inventories and ongoing diplomatic talks between Israel and Hamas helped ease supply concerns. API data showed US crude inventories rose 3.034 million barrels last week, exceeding forecasts for a 2.415 million barrel increase and reversing a 2.286 million barrel decline the previous week. In the Middle East, the Hamas movement said it would study Israel’s ceasefire proposal and present its response to mediators, raising hopes of averting a wider conflict in the region. However, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned it could disrupt trade through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary, which could hit a fifth of the world’s daily oil consumption.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.08% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.38%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.57% over yesterday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.45%.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the official cash rate (OCR) at 5.5% at the April 2024 policy meeting, extending the rate pause for the sixth time and confirming market expectations. Policymakers noted that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to further reduce pressure on manufacturing capacity and inflation. Although core domestic inflation slowed to a two-and-a-half-year low of 4.7% in Q4 2023, it remained well above the 1-3% target. The Committee believes the OCR should remain at a restrictive level for an extended period to help annual consumer inflation return to the target range.

Bank of Japan data showed that producer prices in Japan rose by 0.8% year-on-year in March 2024, matching expectations and the highest since last October.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,209.91 +7.52 (+0.14%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,883.67 −9.13 (−0.023%)

DAX (DE40) 18,076.69 -242.28 (−1.32%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,934.79 −8.68 (−0.11%)

USD Index 104.11 −0.03 (−0.03%)

Important events today:
  • – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Israel and Hamas have not reached an agreement. Markets await US consumer price report

By JustMarkets

Stock indices closed slightly lower on Monday as the yields on 10-year T-notes rose to a 4-month-high. At the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.03%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.04%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.05% yesterday.

Markets await Wednesday’s US consumer price report to determine the direction of the dollar and indices. They also await the first quarter corporate earnings season, which begins this Friday with results from major banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC).

Tesla shares are up more than 4% after CEO Musk said the company will unveil its robot cabs on August 8. Nike (NKE) shares are up more than 1% and led the Dow Jones Industrials higher after Hedgeye Risk Management upgraded the stock to a “buy” from a “hold” rating.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.79%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed yesterday up 0.72%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) was down 0.04%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.41% on Monday.

UK retail sales in March 2024 rose by 3.2% y/y, the strongest increase since August last year, mainly due to the Easter holiday, which boosted food sales.

The Apr Sentix Eurozone Investor Confidence Index rose by 4.6% to a 2-year high 5.9%, stronger than expectations of 8.3%. German industrial production for February rose by 2.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of 0.5% m/m and the largest increase in 13 months. German trade data was mixed. German exports for February fell by 2.0% m/m, which was weaker than expectations of 0.5% m/m. Imports for February unexpectedly rose by 3.2% m/m vs. expectations of 1.2% m/m.

WTI crude futures rose to $86/bbl on Tuesday after falling to $84.3/bbl in the previous session as the latest ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas in Egypt failed to progress. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that Israel would continue the plans. A senior Hamas official also said they had rejected Israel’s latest ceasefire offer made at the talks in Cairo. Risks of further supply disruptions continued to drive oil prices higher as Iran vowed to retaliate against an alleged Israeli attack that killed Iranian generals in Syria.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.91%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.78%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.05% over yesterday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.20%.

In Australia, consumer sentiment weakened for the second consecutive month in April as inflation and high-interest rates weighed heavily. A Westpac report said that while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has signaled that rates are unlikely to rise, it needs more confidence in the inflation outlook to consider cutting rates. Markets had been betting that the central bank would start cutting rates later this year, but robust employment data and rising house prices dampened the outlook. Meanwhile, business confidence improved in March but remained below the long-term average.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,202.39 −1.95 (−0.04%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,892.80 −11.24 (−0.03%)

DAX (DE40) 18,318.97 +143.93 (+0.79%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,943.47 +32.31 (+0.41%)

USD Index 104.14 −0.16 (−0.15%)

Important events today:
  • – New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (m/m) at 01:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Israel withdraws troops from the southern Gaza Strip. Canada’s labor market remains resilient

By JustMarkets

Stock indices rose Friday on optimism that growth in the US economy will continue to drive consumer spending and corporate profits. Stocks rose even after a stronger-than-expected US payrolls report released Friday raised the likelihood of a longer-term interest rate hike. The Dow Jones (US30) Index was up 0.80% (for the week -1.64%), while the S&P 500 (US500) Index increased by 1.11% (for the week -1.02%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.24% on Friday (for the week -1.31%).

The US nonfarm payrolls for March rose 303,000, exceeding expectations of 214,000 and representing the largest increase in 10 months. The unemployment rate fell 0.1% to 3.8% in March, matching expectations. The US average hourly earnings fell to 4.1% y/y from 4.3% y/y in February, matching expectations and representing the slowest rate of growth in 2 years.

Fed spokeswoman Bowman said she still sees several upside risks to inflation and “it is not yet time” to cut interest rates. She added that it is possible that the federal funds rate level consistent with low and stable inflation “will be higher than it was before the pandemic, and if so, fewer rate cuts will eventually be needed to return our monetary policy stance to neutral.” Dallas Fed President Logan said on Friday that it was “too early” to cut interest rates because there are concerns that inflationary progress could stall and that price growth may not cool down to the Fed’s 2 percent target in a “timely manner.” The Fed’s hawkish comments on Friday drove bond yields higher and suggested that the Fed will not be cutting interest rates anytime soon. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 6% for the next FOMC meeting on May 1 and 58% for the next meeting on June 12.

Tesla (TSLA) stock price fell more than 3% and topped the Nasdaq 100 losers list after reports that the company canceled its plans for a low-cost entry-level Tesla car.

The number of jobs in Canada was unchanged last month, but the fundamentals fared better. Average hourly earnings in Canada rose to a 4.5% m/m SAAR. This is a solid increase after 4.3% in the previous month. On the other hand, rising wages are a factor in rising inflation, which may force the Bank of Canada to delay plans to start cutting rates. The Bank of Canada is looking at an annualized rate of 5%, up a tick from the previous month. It means that wages are rising too fast relative to the inflation target.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 1.24% (for the week -1.64%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.11% on Friday (for the week -1.89%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 1.58% (for the week -1.44%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.81% on Friday (for the week -0.26%).

Eurozone February retail sales fell by 0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.4% m/m. German Factory Orders in February rose by 0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.7% m/m. The German Import Price Index for February fell by 0.2% m/m and 4.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of unchanged m/m and 4.6% y/y. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 7% at the next meeting on April 11 and 97% at the next meeting on June 6.

WTI crude oil prices fell more than 2% to $85 a barrel on Monday as Israel withdrew troops from the southern Gaza Strip in response to mounting international pressure. Israel and Hamas also resumed peace talks in Egypt, easing tensions that have led to the recent surge in oil prices. Meanwhile, major oil exporter Saudi Arabia raised official selling prices for all grades of crude for Asia in May amid tightening global supply.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by  4.07%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.17% for the week, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.59%.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said inflation will likely accelerate from “summer to fall” as a sharp wage rise will increase prices. It was his strongest hint yet of the possibility of another rate hike in the coming months. Ueda added that the central bank could “respond with monetary policy” if currency movements significantly affect inflation and wages, suggesting that a sharp fall in the yen could affect the timing of the next rate hike.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to quickly decide to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday. Still, the central bank will have to deal with stagnant inflation amid growing financial stress. The official money rate is forecast to be kept at 5.5%, but there could be dovish adjustments to the forecasts. UBS believes that the RBNZ will wait until November before cutting interest rates.

On Sunday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a 500 billion yuan “re-lending” program for technology innovation and transformation to support small and medium-sized technology enterprises. This week, investors await China’s latest inflation data for economic and monetary policy insights.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,204.34 +57.13 (+1.11%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,904.04 +307.06 (+0.80%)

DAX (DE40) 18,175.04 −228.09 (−1.24%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,911.16 −64.73 (−0.81%)

USD Index 104.29 +0.17 (+0.16%)

Important events today:
  • – Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
  • – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 18:15 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Stock indices saw a sharp sell-off yesterday amid hawkish comments from FOMC officials

By JustMarkets

US stock indices opened higher on Thursday on positivity from Wednesday, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterating his view that it would probably be appropriate to start cutting interest rates at some point this year. But by the end of the trading session, the stock market began a strong selloff amid hawkish comments from FOMC officials. Philadelphia Fed President Harker said inflation is still too high. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said a Fed rate cut may not be needed this year if progress on inflation stalls. At yesterday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) index was down 1.35%, and the S&P 500 (US500) Index fell by 1.35%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 1.40%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes fell to two-week lows, while the Dow Jones Industrials fell to a 2-week low.

The US trade deficit, a key indicator of the country’s economic health, widened to $68.9 billion in February 2024, the highest in ten months. This was up from an upwardly revised $67.6 billion in January, surpassing forecasts of a $67.3 billion deficit. The data reflected a $0.3 billion decline in the goods deficit to $91.4 billion and a $1.6 billion surplus in services to $22.5 billion. Notably, exports rose by 2.3% to a record high of $263 billion, while imports rose 2.2% to $331.9 billion. This data has implications for the dollar index, suggesting a positive trend.

The monthly Nonfarm payrolls labor market report, a crucial economic indicator, is set to be released in the US today. The US economy is expected to have added 205k new jobs in March, maintaining the unemployment rate at 3.9%. However, average hourly earnings are expected to have declined from 4.3% to 4.1% year-over-year. This report will be the focus of investor attention, with many anticipating a soft landing for the economy. If the data set is worse than expected, particularly in terms of wages, it could put pressure on the US dollar, benefiting risk assets and indices. Conversely, if the data set is generally positive, especially if NFP turns out to be hotter than expected, it could delay the likelihood of a rate cut, providing support for the dollar. In such a scenario, indices and gold would come under pressure.

Canada reported a trade surplus of CAD 1.4 billion in February 2024, up from a revised surplus of CAD 0.6 billion in January and well above market forecasts of a CAD 0.8 billion surplus. Exports rose by 5.8% for the month to CAD 66.6 billion.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.19%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed yesterday up 0.02%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.53%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.48%.

The minutes of the latest ECB meeting showed that policymakers are increasingly confident that inflation will return to the 2% target and that the case for lower interest rates is strengthening. However, they emphasized that they must wait for further data on wages and service prices before taking any steps.

Escalating geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions, OPEC+ efforts to curb supply and strong energy demand forecasts are provoking further oil price rises.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.81%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) were not trading yesterday, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.45%.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held the benchmark repo rate at 6.5% for the seventh consecutive meeting amid continued price pressures. The latest move came after annual inflation stood at 5.09% in February 2024, almost unchanged from January, after hitting a four-month high of 5.69% in December 2023, remaining within the RBI’s target range of 2-6% in the medium term. The RBI governor reiterated its commitment to bring inflation down to 4% on time and sustainably. The central bank also maintained its economic growth forecast for FY 2025 at 7%, with projections of 7.1% in Q1, 6.9% in Q2, and Q3 and Q4 at 7% each.

Australia’s trade surplus in goods for February 2024 fell to A$7.28 billion from a downwardly revised A$10.06 billion in the previous month, below market forecasts of A$10.4 billion. It was the smallest trade surplus since September last year as exports fell and imports rose.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,147.21 −64.28 (−1.23%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,596.98 −530.16 (−1.35%)

DAX (DE40) 18,403.13 +35.41 (+0.19%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,975.89 +38.45 (+0.48%)

USD Index 104.26 −0.55 (−0.53%)

Important events today:
  • – Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).
  • – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Inflationary pressures in Europe continue to decline. OPEC+ countries continued their voluntary production cuts

By JustMarkets

Stock indices traded mixed on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrials (US30) falling to a two-week low. Stocks rebounded late in the day after bond yields retreated from early highs following an unexpected decline in the ISM Services Business Activity Index for March in the US. At yesterday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) index was down 0.11%, while the S&P 500 (US500) Index was up 0.11%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.23%.

The March US employment change from ADP rose by 184,000, which was stronger than expectations of 150,000. Additionally, the February ADP figure was revised upward to 155,000 from the previously reported 140,000. The data points to a robust US labor market.

Atlanta Fed President Bostic said yesterday that due to the uneven nature of inflation progress, it will likely be appropriate for the Fed to cut interest rates later this year, in the fourth quarter.

Ford Motor (F) shares closed higher by more than 2% after the company reported a 7% increase in US auto sales in the first quarter due to strong demand for gas-electric hybrid vehicles. Intel (INTC) is down more than 8% and topped the list of losers on the Dow Jones (US30) and NASDAQ (US100) markets after the company said losses in its fab business have gotten worse, and the division may not reach its break-even point for several years.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.46%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.29%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.52%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.03%.

The Eurozone Consumer Price Index for March declined to 2.4% y/y from 2.6% y/y in February, better than expectations of 2.5% y/y. The core CPI declined to 2.9% y/y in March from 3.1% y/y in February, better than expectations of 3.0% y/y and the slowest growth rate in 2 years. The Eurozone unemployment rate for February was unchanged at a record low of 6.5%, beating expectations of a decline to 6.4%. The disinflation trend coincided with recent remarks by ECB policy director Robert Holzmann, who said that a slowdown in price growth could make a June rate cut appropriate.

Financial stocks led the gains on the corporate front, with BNP Paribas, Intesa Sanpaolo, and Santander adding more than 1.5%. German auto giants also rose significantly, with Volkswagen adding 2.5% and BMW jumping more than 5%. Finally, Siemens closed in the green after clarifying that it has no plans to make an offer to buy British engineering company Renishaw.

WTI crude oil prices fell slightly and are trading just below $86 per barrel after the latest EIA data showed an unexpected rise in US inventories. US crude inventories rose by 3.21 million barrels instead of the expected decline of 1.511 million barrels. Nevertheless, prices remained near 5-month levels as traders were concerned that the Middle East’s geopolitical tensions could disrupt oil supplies. In addition, OPEC+ countries decided to extend a voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day until June to stabilize the market.

Copper prices rose to $4.2 a pound, the highest since April last year, amid a weaker dollar after evidence of falling inflation strengthened the case for lower interest rates. Data compiled by ISM showed that prices in the service sector rose by the least in four years. Copper prices were also boosted by good economic data from China, which refuted fears of weaker demand in the country.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.97%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.31%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 1.22% by Wednesday’s close and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.34%.

Judo Bank Australia’s composite business activity index rose to 53.3 in March 2024 from 52.1 in the previous month. Australia’s private sector output growth accelerated sharply at the end of the first quarter, reaching the fastest pace in almost two years. This was mainly due to strong service sector growth, although output continued to contract.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,211.49 +5.68 (+0.11%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,127.14 −43.10 (−0.11%)

DAX (DE40) 18,367.72 +84.59 (+0.46%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,937.44 +2.35 (+0.03%)

USD Index 104.26 −0.55 (−0.53%)

Important events today:
  • – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 01:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Services (m/m) PMI at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services (m/m) PMI at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.