InvestMacro

On Tuesday, the US stock market declined. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.05%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) dropped by 0.49%. The Tech Index Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 1.01%. The main blow to the artificial‑intelligence sector came from The Wall Street Journal’s reports about slowing growth at OpenAI. The company’s revenue and user inflows came in below expectations, raising doubts about the payback of massive spending on computing power. This news triggered a sell‑off in the semiconductor sector: Broadcom plunged more than 4%, AMD lost 3%, and market leader Nvidia fell by 1.5%. Oracle and Intel also closed in the red, losing 3% and 1% respectively. Tech giants Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet traded in negative territory amid nervousness ahead of their earnings releases.

Tuesday marked the seventh consecutive day of decline for European markets. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.27%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.46%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.46%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.11%. The main fear for investors remains the threat of stagflation: a combination of a stalling economy and sky‑high prices for imported energy, which continue to rise despite the sensational exit of the UAE from OPEC and OPEC+.

WTI oil prices have consolidated at 100 dollars per barrel, rising for the seventh consecutive session. The market reached April highs despite the headline event – the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+. This move by Abu Dhabi, aimed at gaining production freedom, has not cooled prices because any additional oil volumes cannot be delivered to consumers due to paralyzed logistics. The ninth week of the conflict has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a “dead zone”: whereas it previously carried 20% of global oil traffic, vessel movement is now nearly zero. The mutual naval blockade by the US and Iran has created an unprecedented supply deficit that outweighs any news about OPEC disunity. As Washington and Tehran exchange ultimatums, the global economy continues to balance on the edge of a stagflationary shock.

Silver prices (XAG) collapsed by more than 3%, falling to 73 dollars per ounce – the lowest level in a month. The sharp drop was triggered by the failure of another diplomatic attempt: US officials confirmed that Donald Trump rejected Iran’s “Pakistan proposal.” This decision shattered hopes for a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and stabilization of the energy market. The situation creates a paradox for precious metals. On one hand, 100‑dollar oil fuels inflation, which investors traditionally hedge with silver and gold. On the other hand, the same inflation forces central banks to prepare for a new tightening cycle. Since silver does not generate interest income, the prospect of “high rates for longer” makes it less attractive compared to government bonds.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.02%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) slipped by 0.01%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed down 0.95%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.64%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) corrected below 0.72 USD but remains near four‑year highs. The main support factor is record inflation, which reached 4.6% in March due to a sharp rise in fuel prices amid the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Markets have almost fully priced in a 25‑basis‑point rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia next week. The slight decline in the currency was caused by inflation data coming in slightly below the most pessimistic projections, as well as general risk aversion among investors. While major G7 central banks prepare to pause, the Australian regulator is forced to act aggressively to contain the price shock.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) lost recent gains on Tuesday, falling to 0.588 USD. After the release of high Q1 inflation data, the probability of a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) at the May meeting is estimated by the market at more than 60%. Inflationary pressure is expected to intensify further in Q2, as current extremely high fuel costs begin to be fully reflected in the statistics.

On Monday, the US stock market showed mixed dynamics. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.13%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.12%. The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher on Friday by 0.20%. Investors are balancing between expectations for tech‑giant earnings and worrying signals from the energy market, where oil prices added another 2% despite diplomatic maneuvering around the Strait of Hormuz. The high‑tech sector became the main engine of growth, fueled by the AI and microchip frenzy: Nvidia jumped 4%, reinforcing its status as the favorite in the AI race ahead of key earnings this week. Investors are preparing for a “super‑week” that will set the trend for the entire next month. The main events will be central‑bank meetings led by the US Federal Reserve, as well as financial results from Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. While the tech sector and financial companies show resilience, allowing indices to remain near record highs, inflation risks linked to the ninth week of the oil shock remain the main barrier to broad market growth.

The Mexican peso (MXN) retreated from its six‑month highs, stabilizing at 17.4 per US dollar. The main driver of the currency’s weakness was fresh inflation data that came in below expectations, giving the Bank of Mexico room for further monetary easing. Annual inflation in Mexico in the first half of April slowed to 4.53%. Even more notable was the decline in core inflation to a five‑month low of 4.27%. These figures confirm that the regulator’s recent unexpected decision to cut rates to 6.75% (a four‑year low) was justified and aimed at supporting domestic growth.

European stock markets continue a prolonged decline: Monday marked the sixth consecutive session of losses. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.19%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.19%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.01%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down 0.56%. Although news of a new diplomatic proposal from Iran via Pakistani intermediaries brought a glimmer of hope, the actual situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains deadlocked. Oil and gas shipments remain paralyzed, keeping fuel prices at levels that threaten Eurozone price stability. Under these conditions, traders are almost certain that the ECB will keep rates unchanged this week, and a significant part of the market is pricing in further rate hikes this quarter to contain inflationary risks.

On Monday, the oil market was hit by a new wave of volatility: WTI prices jumped more than 2%, reaching 96.5 dollars per barrel. The dramatic rise in prices is driven by the effective paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz – a key global energy artery. Despite the formal ceasefire in place since early April, mutual naval blockades have nearly halted tanker traffic in the region. The situation is worsened by the diplomatic deadlock between Washington and Tehran. The IEA describes the current events as the most unprecedented supply shock in the history of observations. The ninth week of the conflict has led not only to raw‑material shortages in key markets but also to rising risks of a global recession.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.38%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.43%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed down 0.20%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.23%. The labor‑market situation in New Zealand in March 2026 showed temporary resilience: employment rose by 0.3%, reaching a 14‑month high of 2.35 million people. This increase was the result of the delayed effect of low interest rates that previously supported businesses, but the overall picture remains troubling. Despite recovering 14,600 jobs since last summer, current employment levels are still 39,000 below those of two years ago. But the positive March dynamics are already facing severe macroeconomic challenges. The sharp rise in fuel prices caused by the ninth week of the Strait of Hormuz conflict has begun to undermine economic activity at the end of Q1. Business confidence in the country has collapsed to mid‑2024 lows, as rising costs erode company profits and force them to begin cutting staff.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.16% (weekly result -0.39%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.80% (weekly result +0.67%). The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher on Friday by 1.95% (weekly result +2.41%). This week, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep the federal funds rate in the 3.50-3.75% range while the regulator analyzes new inflation risks caused by the surge in oil prices. This meeting will be symbolic, as it will likely be Jerome Powell’s last as Fed Chair before his term ends on May 15. Analysts expect cautious rhetoric and a signal that the rate‑cutting cycle will be paused until the new Chair officially takes office.

The US economic calendar will also include key data, most notably the preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP. Growth is expected to accelerate sharply to 2.1% compared to the modest 0.5% at the end of last year, though experts warn this may be temporary due to one‑off increases in government spending. Investors will also closely watch the PCE Index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Core prices in March are expected to rise by 0.3%, slightly below February’s reading, while personal spending is projected to increase by 0.9%.

In Canada, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep its rate at 2.25% this week, closely monitoring the impact of the Strait of Hormuz conflict on the national economy.

On Friday, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.11% (weekly -1.05%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.84% (weekly -1.88%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 1.09% (weekly -3.11%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down 0.75% (weekly -2.71%). Europe faces a busy week with major central‑bank decisions and key GDP and inflation releases. The focus will be on the ECB meeting, where analysts expect rates to remain unchanged. However, the hawkish tone from Christine Lagarde and Isabel Schnabel suggests the pause may be temporary. The main source of concern will be the Eurozone inflation report. April inflation is expected to reach 2.9% – the highest in two and a half years. The primary driver is energy prices, which may show double‑digit growth due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the conflict in Iran. Against this backdrop, Q1 2026 GDP data is expected to confirm a very fragile recovery. The projected 0.2% growth for the Eurozone looks weak. In the UK, analysts expect the BoE to keep rates at 3.75%, though internal disagreement within the Monetary Policy Committee is possible.

Iran has expressed readiness to extend the temporary ceasefire and resume shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. In exchange, Tehran demands the lifting of the US naval blockade of its ports, offering to move nuclear‑program discussions into a separate negotiation track. This led to a decline in WTI prices to 95 dollars per barrel after a brief spike to 96.7 dollars. Despite Monday’s local pullback, Brent and WTI remain at extremely high levels, fueling global inflation and forcing central banks to reconsider their strategies in favor of further tightening.

The US natural‑gas prices (XNG) continued to fall, dropping by 3.6% to 2.52 dollars per MMBtu, hitting new lows not seen since October 2024. The main pressure factor remains the unusually mild spring, which has nearly eliminated heating demand while cooling demand has not yet begun. As a result, storage injections have accelerated significantly: as of April 24, inventories exceeded the seasonal norm by 8%, one percentage point higher than the previous week. The market shows a persistent bearish trend despite producers’ attempts to stabilize the situation. Over the past 18 days, US gas production has fallen by 4.1 billion cubic feet per day, reaching an 11‑year low of 108.1 billion cubic feet.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.52% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed the week down 0.86%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) slipped by 0.08%.

The Asia‑Pacific region enters a week of high volatility, with inflationary pressure and industrial‑sector resilience as key themes. In China, investors await PMI data, which is expected to show slowing factory‑activity growth. Meanwhile, from April 27 to 30, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress will meet to set legislative priorities amid global instability. These political signals, combined with corporate earnings reports, will shape the dynamics of the yuan and mainland Chinese stock markets.

Australia is preparing for troubling inflation news. Analysts prognose a sharp jump in annual inflation to 4.7% (from 3.7% the previous month), significantly increasing pressure on the RBA. Producer‑price data and commodity‑cost dynamics will reveal how deeply the energy shock has penetrated the country’s economic structure and whether another round of monetary tightening should be expected.

On Thursday, US indices closed lower. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.36%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.41%. The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed down 0.57%. Recent macroeconomic reports showed that the manufacturing PMI (S&P PMI) for April jumped by 1.7 points to 54.0, marking the fastest growth in almost four years. However, this optimism was overshadowed by an increase in jobless claims to 214,000 and a drop in the Chicago Fed National Activity Index to a four‑month low of 0.20, which came in worse than analysts expected.

On the geopolitical front, the situation has reached a deadlock: the US and Iran are fighting for control over the Strait of Hormuz, using mutual blockades as leverage. Washington expects counterproposals from Tehran to resume the peace process, while Iran refuses to negotiate as long as its ports remain blocked by the US Navy. This uncertainty continues to pressure global markets and keeps supply‑disruption risks elevated.

The European stock market continued to decline. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.16%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.87%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.67%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down 0.19%. The main negative factor was fresh PMI data confirming that the prolonged energy crisis caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has begun directly suppressing business activity in the Eurozone. Against the backdrop of attacks on commercial vessels by both Iran and the US, investors began actively selling bank stocks, leading to declines of more than 2% in Santander, Deutsche Bank, and BBVA.

The US natural‑gas prices plunged more than 4% on Thursday, falling to 2.60 dollars per MMBtu – a level close to the lows of autumn 2024. The main driver was the weekly report showing an unusually large storage injection. The build totaled 103 billion cubic feet, not only exceeding analysts’ expectations but nearly doubling the five‑year average for this time of year. Thanks to mild spring weather reducing heating demand, total US gas inventories now stand 7.1% above normal, creating downward pressure on prices.

Asian indices declined yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.75%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) slipped by 0.02%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed down 0.95%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) dropped by 0.57%.

Japan’s economic situation is becoming increasingly contradictory. For the first time in five months, core inflation accelerated, driven by rising energy prices amid the conflict in Iran. Despite this, the figure still has not reached the 2% target, giving the Bank of Japan a formal reason to maintain its ultra‑loose monetary policy. The regulator is expected to leave rates unchanged at next week’s meeting, preferring a wait‑and‑see approach amid high uncertainty.
On Friday, the offshore yuan fell below 6.83 per dollar, ending the week with its first decline in three weeks. The main driver of the Chinese currency’s weakness was the global strengthening of the dollar and the sharp escalation of the Middle East conflict. President Trump’s order to “shoot to kill” Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz triggered a new wave of volatility in energy markets and heightened concerns about the safety of maritime trade routes.

The situation in the Persian Gulf is already directly affecting China’s real economy. Due to the spike in oil prices and logistical disruptions, many Chinese exporters were forced to raise their selling prices to offset higher fuel and raw‑material costs. This pressure has begun to spill over into the domestic market: in March, several categories of consumer goods recorded noticeable price increases, ending a long period of price stability in the country.

New Zealand’s domestic agenda now dictates the need for decisive action from the regulator. After the release of high inflation data for the first quarter, traders increased bets on a 25‑basis‑point rate hike as early as May. Inflationary pressure is expected to intensify further in the second quarter, when the recent surge in energy prices caused by the Middle East conflict will be fully reflected in the statistics. The RBNZ has already sent a clear signal to the market that it is prepared to take aggressive measures if price growth accelerates further.

On Wednesday, the US indices rose. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.69%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.05%. The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 1.64%. The main driver of optimism was President Trump’s decision to extend the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely. Investors chose to ignore reports of localized strikes and vessel seizures, focusing instead on the fact that Washington has de facto removed the threat of immediate escalation that could paralyze global energy markets. A real rally unfolded in the technology sector, where semiconductor stocks posted unprecedented growth for the 16th consecutive session. Amid the AI frenzy, shares of Broadcom, AMD, and Micron surged by 5-8%.

At the end of April 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed the 78,000‑dollar mark, rising more than 2% and reaching its highest level since early February. Since the start of the conflict, bitcoin has remained resilient, trading 15% above late‑February levels – a stark contrast to many traditional financial instruments during this period of turbulence. The key factor supporting the “digital gold” has been a powerful inflow of institutional capital. Just this week, 13 US spot bitcoin ETFs attracted more than 250 million dollars, reinforcing last week’s impressive net inflow of 996.4 million dollars. Growing demand from funds indicates that large investors view bitcoin as an effective diversification tool amid the prolonged geopolitical crisis and uncertainty in energy markets.

On Wednesday, the European stock market continued to decline for the third consecutive day. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.31%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.96%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.75%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down 0.21%. The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s retaliatory vessel seizures triggered a new wave of increases in oil and gas prices. Unlike the US, which is relatively energy‑independent, Europe is extremely sensitive to the cost of imported resources, making this a signal of further margin compression in the industrial sector. Industrial giants and consumer‑goods companies came under the strongest pressure. Shares of Safran and Airbus fell by 2.5-3.5% due to expected increases in production costs, while LVMH and Adidas dropped by 2.5% amid a general investor flight from risk.

Brent crude prices surpassed the psychological level of 101 dollars per barrel on Wednesday, reacting to another wave of armed incidents in the Persian Gulf. Reports of a Liberian container ship being shelled by forces linked to the IRGC, and attacks on cargo vessels leaving ports, erased the faint hopes for de‑escalation. Although Donald Trump formally extended the ceasefire, the continued US naval blockade and Iran’s refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have created a stalemate in which global trade remains paralyzed. The oil market is now pricing in prolonged shortages, as logistical disruptions have reduced global supply by roughly 4-5 million barrels per day (around 5%). The most critical situation is unfolding in Asia, which traditionally relies heavily on Middle Eastern crude and is the first to feel the consequences of blocked transport arteries.

Asian indices traded without a unified trend yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.40%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 0.56%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed down 1.22%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 1.18%. On Thursday, Asian stock markets showed negative dynamics, as the prolonged diplomatic deadlock between the US and Iran finally undermined investors’ risk appetite. Investors in the region shifted to a cautious strategy, recognizing that the current state of “neither war nor peace,” with transport arteries closed, leads to long‑term economic depletion and rising costs for producers.
At its April 2026 meeting, Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.75% for the seventh consecutive time, aiming to balance support for the national currency and economic growth. The decision came amid noticeable pressure on the rupiah, which fell to 17,140 per US dollar on April 21 (-0.87% since late March). The main reason for the weakening was the global capital outflow from emerging markets, triggered by the escalation of the Middle East conflict and rising geopolitical risks. Despite external instability, Indonesia’s domestic macroeconomic indicators show resilience. Annual inflation in March slowed to 3.48%, remaining within the central bank’s target range (1.5%-3.5%). Following strong Q4 2025 data, when GDP grew by 5.39% (the highest since 2022), BI maintained its optimistic 2026 growth expectations in the range of 4.9%-5.7%.

Inflation in Singapore accelerated sharply in March 2026, reaching 1.8% year‑on‑year (compared to 1.2% in February). This jump was the highest in the past year and a half. Singaporean authorities maintain a hawkish stance, warning of prevailing pro‑inflationary risks. Further developments will critically depend on the stability of energy supplies, as any new disruptions in regional supply chains could lead to additional increases in import costs and intensify pressure on the consumer market.

On Wednesday, the US markets received a strong impulse from a combination of solid macroeconomic data and stabilizing signals from Washington. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.59%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.63%. The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.59%. The US consumer sector demonstrated unexpected resilience: retail sales in March rose by 1.7%, marking the best result in a year, while sales excluding autos jumped by 1.9% – the strongest increase in three years. Positive momentum was reinforced by the housing market, where pending home sales rose by 1.5%, significantly outperforming analysts’ modest expectations of 0.5%.

On the political front, investors were encouraged by the stance of Kevin Warsh, the nominee for Federal Reserve Chair. During Senate hearings, he emphasized the “strict independence” of the regulator and the priority of price stability, without excuses or ambiguity,” effectively distancing himself from President Trump’s demands for immediate rate cuts. The market interpreted his refusal to provide forward guidance as a sign of a return to traditional, predictable central‑bank policy.

The Mexican peso (MXN) stabilized at 17.3 per US dollar, holding near a six‑week high. Domestic developments in Mexico support the peso’s strength. March inflation data reached a 17‑month high, strengthening the position of hawks within the national central bank. After the recent controversial rate cut, the Bank of Mexico will likely be forced to pause and maintain current borrowing conditions to contain the risk of accelerating price growth.

Tuesday ended with a noticeable decline for European markets. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.60%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.14%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.65%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down 1.05%. Donald Trump’s statement that tomorrow’s ceasefire deadline will not be extended, combined with aggressive rhetoric from both sides, effectively deprived investors of hope for a quick restoration of oil exports through the Persian Gulf.

On Wednesday, silver prices held below the psychological level of 78 dollars per ounce, attempting to stabilize after a sharp 4% plunge in the previous session. Despite Donald Trump’s decision to extend the ceasefire, investors focused on the diplomatic failure: the cancellation of J.D. Vance’s visit to Islamabad and Tehran’s categorical refusal to negotiate confirmed the status quo in the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Since the start of the military conflict, silver has already lost around 17% of its value, as its dual status as an industrial and precious metal makes it extremely vulnerable to supply‑chain disruptions and the overall slowdown in global manufacturing.

On Tuesday, WTI crude prices stabilized around 90 dollars per barrel, correcting after a sharp 5% surge. The volatility was driven by conflicting signals: the session began amid reports of a diplomatic deadlock and the cancellation of J.D. Vance’s visit to Pakistan, but later Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire. The US President justified this decision by citing a “serious split” within the Iranian government, stating that the pause in hostilities would remain in place until Tehran forms a unified position for signing the final agreement. Despite the diplomatic reprieve, the global supply situation remains critical. The blockade of key transport routes has already reduced supply by roughly 4 million barrels per day, and analysts warn that this deficit could grow to 5 million barrels (around 5% of the global market).

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.89% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 0.16%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed up 0.48%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.04%.

On Wednesday morning, the Australian stock market showed a sharp decline: the ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.9%, approaching a two‑week low. Investors reacted negatively to Wall Street’s sentiment, where skepticism prevailed regarding the viability of the Middle East peace process. Domestic pressure intensified due to weak leading‑indicator data for March, reflecting the negative impact of rising fuel prices on business activity. The real shock for the market was the collapse of Cochlear Ltd. shares by 37% to a ten‑year low after a sharp downward revision of profit predictions. The financial sector and mining industry also suffered significant losses.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.79% (weekly result +3.62%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.20% (weekly result +4.70%). The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher on Friday by 1.29% (weekly result +6.40%).

The outlook for the US economy in the near future will be closely tied to the dynamics of relations between the United States and Iran. Donald Trump’s statement that Tehran agreed to suspend its nuclear program and halt attacks in the Strait of Hormuz became a powerful signal for markets, strengthening hopes for a rapid stabilization of energy prices. In monetary policy, attention will focus on the congressional testimony of Kevin Warsh, the nominee for the position of Federal Reserve Chair. His stance on the optimal size of the Fed’s balance sheet may become a key benchmark for the bond market.

On Friday, the Canadian dollar (CAD) fell to 1.36 per US dollar. The main driver of the decline was the sharp drop in global oil prices, which plunged 12% to 82 dollars. The rapid correction in the energy market occurred after official confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open for commercial shipping. For Canada, as a major commodity exporter, such a decline in export revenues traditionally results in a weaker national currency. Additional pressure on the loonie came from shifting market expectations regarding monetary policy. De‑escalation of the Middle East conflict eased fears of an inflation shock, prompting investors to revise their predictions towards an earlier rate cut by the Bank of Canada.

Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 2.27% (weekly +4.84%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.97% (weekly +3.02%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 2.18% (weekly +2.66%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed the session up 0.73% (weekly +0.62%). The catalyst for such strong optimism was Tehran’s official announcement of the full resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Investors interpreted this as real confirmation of Donald Trump’s statement that the active phase of the conflict is nearing its end, significantly reducing the geopolitical risk premium.

This week, the Eurozone will focus on preliminary PMI business‑activity indices for the Eurozone, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. Analysts expect a broad decline in indicators, pointing to a cooling business cycle and a possible shift toward recessionary scenarios in both manufacturing and services. Germany’s leading indicators are of particular concern. The ZEW economic sentiment index is expected to fall to a yearly low, while the Ifo Business Climate Index is projected to hit its weakest level since February 2025. These data, along with the upcoming producer‑price index (PPI), may increase pressure on the ECB to reconsider its tight monetary policy.

On Friday, the energy market experienced a massive collapse: WTI crude futures plunged more than 10%, falling below 84 dollars per barrel. This drop pushed prices to a five‑week low and was a direct reaction to the foreign minister’s statement that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open to commercial vessels during the ceasefire, effectively removing the threat of a global energy collapse that had weighed on the market for the past month and a half. But on Monday at the open, oil prices surged again. Panic was triggered by reports that US Navy forces seized an Iranian cargo ship by force. The vessel ignored an order to stop while exiting the strait, leading to an armed clash. In response, Iran struck vessels in the region and officially declared the restoration of full control over the Strait of Hormuz.

The silver (XNG) market showed impressive dynamics: prices jumped 5%, reaching 82 dollars per ounce. Investors enthusiastically welcomed the news that the Strait of Hormuz would remain fully open to commercial vessels during the ten‑day ceasefire. However, the situation remains highly uncertain. Donald Trump confirmed that the US naval blockade will remain in place until a final peace agreement is signed, maintaining a certain risk premium in the market.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 3.64% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 2.20%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed the week up 1.76%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.39%.

The PBOC officially confirmed the preservation of benchmark lending rates (LPR) at current levels. This decision marked the eleventh consecutive maintenance of the status quo, fully in line with analysts’ expectations. The Chinese regulator continues to follow a policy of “moderate easing,” balancing the need to support domestic growth with the need to protect the national currency from excessive volatility amid global instability.

This week in monetary policy, decisions by Bank Indonesia and the Central Bank of the Philippines will come into focus. Against the backdrop of global volatility and regional inflation dynamics, their actions will serve as an important signal for investors regarding the resilience of emerging‑market currencies.

On Thursday, the US stock market maintained positive dynamics. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.24%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.26%. The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 0.36%. The leading positions were held by the energy, commodities, and real estate sectors. In the corporate sector, attention was focused on the start of earnings season. Shares of Bank of New York Mellon rose by 1.3% thanks to strong financial results, while PepsiCo shares added a modest 0.3% after publishing a report that exceeded analysts’ expectations for profit and revenue.

On Thursday, European stocks traded without a unified trend. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.36%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.14%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.53%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed the session up by 0.29%. According to the minutes of the March meeting, the ECB leadership noted that the Middle East conflict has become a key source of uncertainty, creating a classic monetary‑policy trap: simultaneous risks of accelerating inflation and economic stagnation. Despite this, the regulator remains confident in its ability to manage volatility, noting that the current situation may either drag on or find an unexpected diplomatic solution in the coming months. Although short‑term inflation expectations were significantly revised upward, the ECB’s strategic goal remains unchanged – stabilizing prices at 2% in the medium term. Board members agreed that in such high geopolitical turbulence, the most reasonable tactic is to avoid long‑term commitments.

The Swiss franc (CHF) strengthened to 0.78 per US dollar, reaching its highest level in nearly 15 years. The internal agenda of the SNB remains cautious. The published minutes of the March meeting emphasize that the regulator sees the Middle East conflict as a serious threat to price stability. The main risk for the SNB is excessive strengthening of the national currency caused by capital inflows into “safe havens.” An overly strong franc may trigger deflationary pressure and harm Swiss exporters. In this regard, the SNB leadership confirmed its readiness for active currency interventions. The regulator intends to closely monitor market dynamics and, if necessary, intervene by selling francs to prevent its sharp and excessive appreciation.

WTI oil prices rose by 4%, surpassing 95 dollars per barrel. The sharp rise in prices was triggered by a wave of skepticism regarding the success of the diplomatic process between the US and Iran. While earlier the market hoped for a comprehensive agreement and a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the focus has now shifted to a less ambitious scenario – the signing of a temporary memorandum aimed only at preventing a new escalation of hostilities. Against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty, the market largely ignored news of a ten‑day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

An additional bullish factor came from fresh data from the US Energy Information Administration. After a long period of accumulation, US crude‑oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 9.13 million barrels. This figure shocked analysts, who had expected a symbolic increase of 154 thousand barrels. Such a significant drop in inventories, combined with reduced imports and strong gasoline demand, confirms tightening supply in the physical market.

The US natural‑gas prices (XNG) rose to 2.657 dollars per MMBtu, although quotes still remain near the lows of autumn 2024. The main driver of the local rise was a sharp decline in average daily production, which in recent days fell to a ten‑week low of 108 billion cubic feet. Alongside falling production, high activity is observed in the export sector. Gas flows to US LNG terminals in April increased to 18.9 billion cubic feet per day, approaching historical records. This factor, along with expectations of moderate demand growth in the next two weeks, is preventing prices from falling.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose sharply by 2.38% during the session, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 1.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed up by 1.72%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.26%.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) fell to 0.588 US dollars, reacting to domestic economic data that softened expectations of an immediate interest‑rate hike. The main pressure factor was slowing food inflation: in March, food prices (which account for nearly one‑fifth of the consumer basket) rose by 3.4% year‑on‑year compared to 4.5% in February. This is the lowest reading in the past year, indicating a gradual cooling of price pressure. Alongside slowing inflation, a decline in consumer activity was recorded. Monthly growth in core electronic‑card spending slowed by half, from 1.4% to 0.7%. The combination of these factors gives the RBNZ temporary breathing room, reducing the need for emergency monetary tightening in the near term.

According to preliminary data, in the first quarter of 2026, Malaysia’s economy grew by 5.3% year‑on‑year. Although the figure remains relatively high, it indicates a noticeable cooling of economic activity compared to the strong 6.3% growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. The slowdown affected most key sectors. This was especially evident in services, the most important sector of the economy, where growth fell from 6.3% to 5.4%. Alongside slowing growth, inflationary pressure is increasing. The annual inflation rate in March 2026 accelerated to 1.7% compared to 1.4% in February. This figure matched market expectations and became the highest in more than a year (since January 2025).