InvestMacro

On Wednesday, the US stock indices staged a historic rally: the Dow Jones jumped more than 1,300 points, marking its best performance in a year. Investors ignored the Federal Reserve’s warnings about stagflation risks and focused instead on what many called a “diplomatic miracle” – the White House’s readiness for direct negotiations with Iran. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 2.58%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 2.51%. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed up 2.80%. Despite ongoing pockets of conflict in Lebanon and the Persian Gulf, the market appears confident in the stability of the 14‑day ceasefire. The artificial‑intelligence and airline sectors were the biggest winners of the day. Shares of giants such as Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta surged between 4% and 10%, as falling oil prices and stabilizing bond yields restored investor appetite for risk assets.

The minutes of the March FOMC meeting confirm that the Federal Reserve has shifted into a mode of “heightened readiness.” The introduction of a two‑sided formulation in the rate discussion is a clear signal to markets: the Fed no longer guarantees that the next move will be a cut. Previously, investors debated only the timing of policy easing; now the hawkish wing openly acknowledges the possibility of additional hikes if inflationary pressures, fueled by geopolitics, fail to ease. The fact that most participants see risks to both prices and employment underscores the real threat of stagflation.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthened confidently, reaching 1.38 per US dollar amid a broad retreat of the greenback. Paradoxically, the loonie managed to rise even as WTI crude prices collapsed due to news of the temporary ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Normally, falling oil prices drag the Canadian currency lower, but this time the sharp drop in the US dollar index to a four‑week low proved to be the dominant factor, giving the loonie a net gain for the session. However, the Canadian dollar still looks weaker than currencies such as the Australian dollar and the British pound, which are less dependent on the energy sector and recover more quickly when risk appetite returns. For the Bank of Canada, the current situation creates a complex backdrop: a stronger currency helps contain imported inflation, but a sharp decline in oil revenues could negatively affect the country’s trade balance in the long run.

On Wednesday, European markets experienced a true triumph: indices soared to monthly highs. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 5.06%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 4.49%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) climbed 3.94%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 2.51%. The decisive factor was the 14‑day ceasefire between the US and Iran, which allowed the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The sharp drop in oil and natural‑gas prices in Europe became a powerful catalyst for the industrial and banking sectors. Lower energy costs immediately improved margin outlooks for giants such as Siemens, Safran, and Schneider, whose shares surged more than 10%. The banking sector, represented by Santander, UniCredit, and BNP Paribas, gained around 8% amid bond‑market stabilization and falling yields.

The Swiss franc (CHF) strengthened to 0.789 per US dollar, reaching a two‑week high. This movement resulted from a paradoxical combination of factors: declining global demand for the dollar as a safe‑haven asset and Switzerland’s own inflation dynamics. Under normal conditions, a strong franc effectively restrains inflation by making imports cheaper. However, the current scale of the energy crisis is so severe that the currency buffer is no longer sufficient. This creates a unique situation in which rising energy prices fully offset the deflationary impact of a strong national currency. For the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the current environment suggests a pause in active policy measures.

On Thursday, WTI crude prices staged a sharp rebound, rising more than 2% to 97 dollars per barrel. The market quickly realized that the triumphant ceasefire headlines had collided with harsh reality: the “silence window” was already at risk of collapsing within the first 24 hours. Renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon triggered a heated dispute over the boundaries of the agreement. Tehran insists that Lebanon is part of the deal, while Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump confirmed that the campaign against Hezbollah is not included in the US-Iran arrangement. Nevertheless, hope for diplomacy remains. US Vice President J.D. Vance, who is leading the American delegation, is heading to Islamabad for direct talks with Iranian representatives this weekend.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 5.39%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped by 2.84%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 3.09%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) climbed by 2.55%.

The offshore yuan (CNH) is holding at 6.83 per US dollar, hovering near a three‑year high. The resilience of the Chinese currency amid global volatility is explained by Beijing’s unique position: the yuan has strengthened by 1% over the past month and by 2.4% since the beginning of the year. Investors view China as a relative “safe harbor” thanks to its massive oil reserves and stable energy‑supply chains, which have proven less vulnerable to the Middle East crisis than those of other Asian economies. Market attention is now shifting to China’s macroeconomic data, which will be released on Friday. Consumer inflation (CPI) is expected to show moderate growth around 1.3%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) may return to annual growth for the first time since 2022. If these projections are confirmed, it would signal a recovery in domestic demand and industrial activity, giving the People’s Bank of China more room for maneuver.

On Tuesday, US stock indices traded without a unified direction. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.18%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.08%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed up 0.10%. On Wednesday, index futures moved into positive territory, catalyzed by the signing of a 14‑day ceasefire between the US and Iran, which restored investor appetite for risk.

In the corporate sector, performance was mixed: while giants like Nvidia and AMD declined amid broad pessimism, Apple plunged 4% due to production issues with its foldable iPhone. Meanwhile, Broadcom shares jumped 4.5% thanks to a strategic contract with Alphabet, and Intel gained 3% on rumors of cooperation with xAI.

Inflation expectations in the US spiked sharply in March 2026, reaching an annual high of 3.4%. A New York Fed survey recorded alarming dynamics: expectations for gasoline price growth more than doubled, to 9.4%, the highest level since the 2022 energy crisis.

Bitcoin (BTC) staged an impressive rally, breaking above 72,000 dollars and reaching a three‑week high. The catalyst was a dramatic shift in the geopolitical climate: the signing of a 14‑day ceasefire between the US and Iran just two hours before Donald Trump’s ultimatum expired restored risk appetite. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the temporary halt to mutual strikes triggered a wave of short liquidations, pushing the price of the leading digital assets to new local highs. After a turbulent period and outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier in the year, March data showed stabilization and renewed net inflows. The fact that institutional investors have begun increasing positions again signaled to the market that the capitulation phase among major players has ended.

European stock Indices closed sharply lower on Tuesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.06%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) declined by 0.67%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.64%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.84%. The main driver of the sell‑off was fear of an imminent energy crisis in the EU’s largest economies: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Trump’s ultimatum pushed gas and oil prices sharply higher, leading to rising government‑bond yields and pressuring industrial giants. Shares of Siemens, Schneider Electric, and Airbus lost around 2%, as investors fear supply‑chain paralysis and a surge in production costs.

Palladium (XPD) and platinum (XPT) prices surged sharply on Wednesday. Such a rapid rebound became possible thanks to the sudden easing of tensions in the Persian Gulf: news of the two‑week ceasefire between the US and Iran triggered a collapse in oil prices below 100 dollars per barrel. This immediately lowered inflation expectations and revived hopes for a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve, leading to falling bond yields and a weaker dollar – ideal conditions for commodity price growth.

Wednesday was marked by a historic collapse in oil prices: WTI futures plunged more than 15%, breaking below 95 dollars per barrel. The massive sell‑off was a direct reaction to the abrupt de‑escalation in the Persian Gulf. Donald Trump’s decision to transform his hardline ultimatum into a “bilateral ceasefire” for 14 days, and his acknowledgment that Iran’s 10‑point proposal is a “real basis for negotiations”, instantly removed the enormous geopolitical risk premium that had accumulated in recent weeks. A key factor for global energy security was Tehran’s commitment to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz. For the global economy, this drop in oil prices below 95 dollars is a powerful deflationary stimulus. If the two‑week window allows the parties to finalize a deal, fears of global recession and uncontrolled fuel inflation may give way to a cycle of business activity recovery. However, investors remain cautious, recognizing that Iran’s requirement to coordinate all transit shipments with its armed forces could become a new tool of subtle pressure in upcoming negotiations.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.72% during the trading session, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) did not trade yesterday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.83%. Asian stock markets on Wednesday posted explosive gains, celebrating the unexpected diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East. The leaders of the rally were the Japanese and South Korean Indices, which surged more than 5%, reflecting enormous investor relief after the world came close to a full‑scale energy war. Despite the euphoria, traders are closely examining the terms of the agreement. Tehran’s requirement to coordinate all transit shipments with Iran’s armed forces indicates that control over the key maritime artery remains a leverage tool in Iran’s hands. Nevertheless, stock exchanges in Australia, China, and Hong Kong supported the upward trend, as the risk of immediate disruption to global supply chains temporarily faded.

The New Zealand dollar rose to 0.58 USD, reaching its highest level in nearly two weeks, after the Reserve Bank, as expected, left the official cash rate unchanged at 2.25%. The strengthening of the New Zealand dollar is also supported by the de‑escalation between Washington and Tehran. Iran’s agreement to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz under the 14‑day ceasefire reduced the risk premium that had been weighing on commodity currencies. For New Zealand, whose economy is highly dependent on logistics costs and energy imports, the resumption of shipping reduces the threat of stagflation.

On Monday, US stock indices showed moderate optimism amid cautious hopes for a 45‑day ceasefire. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.36%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.44%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed the session up 0.54%.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.39 per US dollar, taking advantage of a temporary weakening of the greenback following reports of a potential 45‑day ceasefire. Investor optimism is supported by news that Iran may shift from a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to a system of charging transit fees on tankers – a development that significantly reduces the risk of an uncontrolled inflationary shock. For the Bank of Canada, which keeps its policy rate at 2.25%, such de‑escalation provides a much‑needed breather, allowing the regulator to avoid emergency tightening despite weak manufacturing data (47.6 points) and ongoing pressure on the domestic sector.

European stock markets were closed on Monday due to the Easter holiday.
Silver prices (XAG) continued their downward movement, falling to 72 dollars per ounce. The metal’s dynamics reflect extreme investor confusion as markets attempt to navigate between reports of a possible 45‑day ceasefire and Donald Trump’s hardline ultimatum. Since the start of “Operation Epic Fury,” silver has lost more than 20% of its value, showing the worst performance among precious metals. This is due to its dual nature: as an industrial asset, it suffers from expectations of a global manufacturing slowdown, and as an investment asset, it loses to the US dollar amid expectations of further Fed rate hikes to combat energy‑driven inflation.

Platinum prices (XPT) remain below the psychological threshold of 2,000 dollars per ounce, trading near three‑month lows amid escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf. The market is frozen ahead of Donald Trump’s deadline, set for 20:00 on Tuesday (Eastern Time): the threat of strikes on Iran’s civilian infrastructure has overshadowed the faint hopes for a 45‑day ceasefire. Geopolitical tensions and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are fueling energy inflation, reinforcing expectations of tighter central‑bank policy and exerting direct pressure on platinum‑group metals as non‑yielding assets.

The oil market displayed characteristic skepticism: after a brief decline on ceasefire‑related headlines, WTI prices resumed their upward movement, closing above 112 dollars per barrel. This underscores that traders still view the physical blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a more significant factor than preliminary mediation agreements. The market is now focused on Trump’s deadline, expiring Tuesday at 20:00: the threat of destroying Iran’s civilian infrastructure (bridges and power plants) shifts the conflict into a phase of total economic warfare. The current gap between futures prices and physical oil prices indicates an acute supply shortage that cannot be offset even by releasing strategic reserves.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.55% during the trading session, while China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) did not trade yesterday.

The Australian dollar remains under heavy pressure, holding near a two‑month low at 0.690 USD. For the “aussie,” a high‑risk commodity currency, the combination of an energy shock and potential military escalation creates an extremely toxic environment, only partially softened by last‑minute hopes for diplomatic mediation ahead of the ultimatum. The fundamental picture has been significantly worsened by domestic macroeconomic data: Australia’s March PMI fell into contraction territory for the first time in a year and a half, dropping to 46.6. Particularly alarming is the collapse in the services sector from 52.8 to 46.3, indicating a sharp cooling of consumer activity due to soaring fuel prices and overall geopolitical instability.

On Friday, US stock indices closed. By the end of the week, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 1.31%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 2.00%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) finished the five‑day period up 2.48%. The upcoming week will be packed with critical data to help assess the true scale of the economic damage caused by the conflict. The ISM Services PMI is expected to be the first indicator to capture supply‑chain disruptions and rising costs. Particular attention will be paid to the March Consumer Price Index, where last year’s low base effect may trigger a sharp jump in the annual reading. Investors will also closely examine the FOMC meeting minutes to understand how the Fed leadership assessed the risks of an inflationary spiral two weeks after the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz began.

The dynamics of the Mexican peso in early April 2026 are shaped by a tight link to global capital markets and domestic growth challenges. The currency shows extreme sensitivity to risk appetite: the inverse correlation between USD/MXN and the S&P 500 has reached a low level of 0.80, the strongest since 2020. This makes the peso highly vulnerable to any negative news from the Middle East. Mexico’s domestic agenda is shifting from fighting inflation to supporting a stagnating economy. Although consumer prices (CPI) remain above the 2-4% target range, the central bank cut rates at the end of March, signaling a priority on economic growth. February industrial production data, expected later this week, may confirm the negative trend following January’s 1.1% slump. Weakness in the manufacturing sector deprives the peso of fundamental support.

Analysis of the USD/CAD pair in early April 2026 reveals an anomaly: the traditional link between the Canadian dollar and energy markets has nearly disappeared. The correlation between the loonie and oil has turned slightly positive (+0.15), paradoxically indicating CAD weakness even as oil prices rise. The main driver is the overall strength of the US dollar, with a still‑high correlation of 0.60, confirming that global flight to safety outweighs Canada’s status as a resource exporter. Fundamental pressure on the Canadian dollar is intensifying due to troubling labor‑market data. After February’s loss of 108.4 thousand full‑time jobs and a rise in unemployment to 6.7%, investors are anxiously awaiting this week’s employment report. Weak numbers could cement expectations of a dovish Bank of Canada. The probability of a rate hike on April 29 is now below 10%, and expectations for policy tightening in 2026 have shifted to the fourth quarter, leaving the currency without rate‑differential support.

European stock markets were also closed on Friday due to Easter holidays. By the end of the week, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 2.46%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 2.42%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) climbed to 3.50%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the five‑day period up with 4.65%.
WTI crude prices corrected to 111 dollars per barrel after an early‑morning spike to 115.5 dollars. The reversal was triggered by reports of a proposed 45‑day ceasefire between the US, Iran, and regional mediators, which could form the basis for a long‑term settlement. This diplomatic opening emerged against the backdrop of an extremely harsh ultimatum from Donald Trump, who threatened to destroy Iran’s civilian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz was not unblocked immediately. Tehran officially rejected Washington’s latest demands, maintaining the effective blockade. Adding fuel to the fire, OPEC+ announced over the weekend that it had approved an increase in production quotas to combat the global shortage, but warned that physical damage to regional energy infrastructure would limit supply long after a formal ceasefire.

Asian markets also mostly rose last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.05%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.65%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.40%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a 1.27% weekly gain.

The dynamics of the Australian dollar in early April 2026 are shaped by a complex interplay of global risk aversion and domestic inflationary pressures. The currency remains highly sensitive to the trajectory of the US dollar (correlation -0.75) and the stock market (correlation with the S&P 500 at 0.62), making it extremely vulnerable during periods of escalation in the Persian Gulf. Notably, the traditional link between the “aussie” and gold has weakened significantly: after peaking at 0.80 last month, the correlation has fallen to 0.45, reflecting the unusual behavior of the precious metal amid the current military crisis.

Domestically, attention is focused on February household‑spending data. The Reserve Bank of Australia responded to strong consumer demand at the end of 2025 with two rate hikes even before hostilities began on February 28. Now, despite geopolitical instability, futures markets are pricing an 80% probability of a third consecutive rate hike, viewing inflation control as the regulator’s top priority even as global growth slows. From a technical standpoint, the Australian dollar appears oversold after falling to a two‑month low near 0.6835.

In early April 2026, China is pursuing a strategy of currency stability, deliberately avoiding yuan devaluation despite the global strengthening of the US dollar. Setting the fixing at 6.8880 – the highest in recent years – indicates Beijing’s desire to minimize the cost of energy imports amid the Hormuz blockade. As the world’s largest oil importer, China faces serious challenges for its industrial sector, yet high fuel prices are paradoxically boosting domestic demand for electric vehicles and solar panels, strengthening the country’s position in the “green” sector. The macroeconomic picture remains uneven: before the start of “Operation Epic Fury,” China was battling consumer deflation, but in February the CPI jumped to a three‑year high of 1.3%. Inflation data for March, expected this week, is outlook by Bloomberg to show producer prices (PPI) returning to positive territory at 0.5%, while consumer inflation stabilizes around 1.2%. These figures will be critical for understanding how deeply disruptions in Iranian oil supplies and US-Israeli military actions have undermined price stability within China.

On Thursday, the US stock markets showed mixed dynamics. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.13%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.11%. The technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.11%. Despite the negative finish, the market managed to significantly trim the losses recorded in the first half of the session. A reason for local optimism was the report that Iran, together with Oman, is developing a technical protocol for monitoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This news gave investors hope for a partial restoration of trade routes, which somewhat cooled panic sentiment. In the corporate sector, the main focus was on Tesla, whose shares plunged 5% after the release of disappointing electric vehicle delivery data for the first quarter of 2026.

On Thursday, the Mexican peso (MXN) lost the progress achieved the day before, weakening to 17.88 per dollar. Fundamental pressure on the peso intensified due to the actions of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). At its latest meeting, the regulator resumed its easing cycle, cutting the key rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%. The decision was made by majority vote (3 to 2) amid clear signs of a slowdown in the Mexican economy at the start of 2026. The fact that the central bank cut rates despite accelerating inflation signals a prioritization of economic growth over price stability, reducing the peso’s attractiveness for carry‑trade strategies.

European stock markets mostly dropped yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.56%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.24%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.14%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.69%. The shift in sentiment occurred after Donald Trump’s address, which did not provide the expected specifics on de‑escalation in the Persian Gulf. Traders also took into account the factor of the long weekend, as European exchanges will be closed on Friday due to Easter celebrations, prompting many market participants to close positions in advance.

On Thursday, the Swiss franc (CHF) traded at 0.80 per US dollar, holding near its lowest levels since mid‑January amid the dominance of the US currency as the world’s primary safe haven. Despite the franc’s traditional status as a defensive asset, investors are favoring the dollar. Core inflation in Switzerland accelerated in March to an annual high of 0.3%, which slightly eased pressure on the SNB regarding policy easing, as rising energy prices due to the conflict in the Persian Gulf have begun to offset the restraining effect of the strong national currency on import costs.

On Thursday, silver prices (XNG) collapsed by nearly 5% to 71 dollars per ounce, marking a total decline of more than 20% since the start of the conflict on February 28. The sharp plunge in the precious metal was triggered by the strengthening of the US dollar after Donald Trump’s address, in which he promised to deliver an “extremely strong strike” on Iran in the coming weeks instead of the de‑escalation plan expected by the markets. The absence of a clear exit strategy from the war and Tehran’s denial of rumors about requesting a ceasefire forced investors to seek refuge in the US currency, which traditionally puts downward pressure on dollar‑denominated assets.

WTI crude prices surged by 11%, breaking above 111 dollars per barrel. This is the highest level in almost four years. An even more dramatic situation unfolded with the North Sea Brent blend, whose price broke above 140 dollars per barrel, approaching the historical record of 2008. Such a sharp spike occurred as markets reassessed the scale of threats to global supply due to the escalation of the military conflict in the Persian Gulf. The main catalyst for the rally was Donald Trump’s tough statements, in which he promised to intensify strikes on Iran’s military and energy infrastructure in the coming weeks if Washington’s conditions are not met. Tehran responded with counter‑threats, instantly erasing yesterday’s optimism. Against this backdrop, the United Kingdom initiated large‑scale negotiations with dozens of countries to form an international coalition to ensure the security of trade routes. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ alliance is urgently considering the possibility of increasing production quotas to calm market panic. However, experts warn that in the short term, even additional oil volumes will not reach consumers as long as physical access to key regional terminals remains blocked or under threat of attack.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) showed negative dynamics on Thursday, falling below 2.81 dollars per MMBtu. Quotes approached the lows of August 2025, sharply contrasting with the rally in the oil market. The main driver of the decline was the weekly report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which recorded a larger‑than‑expected increase in storage inventories. During the reporting week, energy companies injected 36 billion cubic feet of gas, significantly exceeding both the figure for the same period last year (30 billion) and the five‑year average (only 4 billion). At the moment, total US gas inventories have reached 1.865 trillion cubic feet. This is 5.4% above last year’s level and 3% above the five‑year average. Such a surplus creates a reliable “safety cushion” for the US domestic market, offsetting the impact of global geopolitical instability.

Asian markets rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.38%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.73%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.70%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 1.06%.

On Friday, the offshore yuan (CNY) slightly strengthened to 6.88 per dollar, although the pace of growth slowed compared to the previous session. Investors cautiously welcomed the news that Iran and Oman are developing a protocol for “transit monitoring” through the Strait of Hormuz, giving hope for partial resumption of shipping. Despite diplomatic efforts, China’s domestic economic data for March reflected a noticeable cooling of activity. According to a RatingDog report, the composite PMI fell to 51.5 from February’s 55.4, with a slowdown recorded in both the manufacturing sector (50.8) and services (52.1).

On Tuesday, the US stock markets ended with a powerful rally. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.48%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.72%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 1.16%. Investor optimism at the beginning of April was fueled by signals of a possible de-escalation in the Middle East. Statements by Donald Trump that Iran had officially requested a ceasefire, and his readiness to withdraw troops within several weeks, provided the security of the Strait of Hormuz is ensured, became the key catalyst for the rally. This led to a sharp reduction of the geopolitical premium in oil prices, easing pressure on capital markets. However, the overall positive picture was overshadowed by a 15.6% drop in Nike shares – investors reacted extremely negatively to the company’s weak revenue guidance, which raised concerns about the sustainability of consumer demand in the retail sector.

The CAD strengthened to 1.39 per US dollar. The country’s manufacturing sector showed stagnation in March: the PMI fell to the critical level of 50.0. Zero growth is accompanied by a sharp increase in production costs and growing anxiety among Canadian manufacturers regarding possible trade tariffs from the United States. Such uncertainty in trade policy limits the recovery potential of the Canadian currency, despite the temporary calm in the Persian Gulf.

The Mexican peso showed a confident recovery, reaching 17.8 per US dollar. The main driver of growth was the return of global risk appetite amid signals of a possible de-escalation in the Middle East. After an extremely volatile March, when the currency suffered from massive unwinding of carry-trade positions and investor flight into safe-haven assets, the weakening of the US dollar allowed the peso to recoup a significant portion of its losses.

On Thursday, Bitcoin fell by about 2.0%, settling at 66,512 dollars. The digital assets market reacted to the emergency address of US President Donald Trump to the nation, in which he summarized the interim results of “Operation Epic Fury.” Despite the overall rhetoric about the mission nearing completion, Trump threatened Iran with an “extremely strong strike” in the next two to three weeks if Tehran does not comply with Washington’s conditions.
European stock markets showed a sharp rise yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 2.73%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 2.10%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 3.11%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 1.85% higher.

On Wednesday, the US WTI crude oil futures ended trading at 99.60 dollars per barrel, recording a long-awaited drop below the psychological threshold of 100 dollars. Early April was marked by a wave of cautious optimism following Donald Trump’s statements about a possible end to the military operation in Iran within two to three weeks. The market reacted sensitively to news that Iranian leader Masoud Pezeshkian had officially requested a ceasefire, giving investors hope for de-escalation of the most acute energy crisis in recent years. Despite diplomatic glimmers, the US administration maintains a tough stance, setting an uncompromising condition: any peace talks will begin only after the Strait of Hormuz is fully open and recognized as safe for international shipping. This strategic waterway remains the main point of tension, as its blockade led to a record volume of oil fund trading at the end of March.

Asian markets rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) climbed 1.85%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose 2.04%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 2.24%.

The NZD resumed its decline, falling to 0.571 US dollars and interrupting a two-day recovery. The main pressure factor was investor disappointment after Donald Trump’s prime-time address to the nation. Despite statements that the goals of “Operation Epic Fury” are almost achieved, the US President did not present a concrete plan for an immediate ceasefire. Although the RBNZ traditionally tries to “ignore” temporary price spikes, Breman made it clear that if inflation becomes persistent, the bank will have to raise interest rates again to prevent inflation expectations from rising.

On Tuesday, the US stock markets ended with a powerful rally. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 2.49%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 2.91%. The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 3.43%. Investor optimism was triggered by signals of possible diplomatic de‑escalation: Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, during international contacts, confirmed Tehran’s readiness for a ceasefire. The main conditions from the Iranian side were the provision of firm international security guarantees, payment of reparations, and recognition of the country’s sovereign rights, which the market interpreted as the first real “exit” from the hot phase of the conflict. The leaders of the recovery were technology giants, the most sensitive to geopolitical risks: Nvidia shares rose by 5.6%, and Microsoft by 3.1%. Despite Tuesday’s positive close, March results remain extremely painful for investors: the S&P 500 ended the month down 5.3%, its worst result since 2022.

The Canadian dollar reached 1.395 per US dollar, updating its lowest levels since December of last year. Despite positive domestic statistics, Canada’s economy grew by 0.2% in February due to a recovery in the mining and financial sectors, but the national currency could not withstand the global dominance of the US dollar. The main factor behind the weakening of the loonie was the widespread flight of investors into safe‑haven assets amid the prolonged conflict in the Middle East. The situation is worsened by the fact that the traditional support for the Canadian dollar from high oil prices is being offset by concerns over global economic growth. Markets are pricing in a prolonged supply shock scenario, in which Canada’s benefit from expensive commodities is overshadowed by a general decline in risk appetite.

European stock markets showed growth yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.52%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.57%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.47%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.48% higher.

Silver (XAG) prices showed a local rise to 73 dollars per ounce. However, this short‑term interest does not change the catastrophic monthly dynamics: silver ends March with a decline of more than 20%, the worst monthly result in the past 14 years. At the moment, the asset is trading almost 40% below its historical highs recorded at the end of January 2026. Such a sharp collapse of the industrial and precious metals is due to a radical shift in the macroeconomic landscape caused by the war in the Middle East. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent energy shock (Brent oil above 115 dollars) turned inflation from a temporary factor into a long‑term threat. This forced investors to completely revise their expectations for interest rates: before the war, the market expected two Fed rate cuts in 2026, but now traders have fully ruled out such a scenario, pricing in the continuation of tight credit conditions.

WTI oil prices showed a corrective decline, falling to 100 dollars per barrel. Earlier in the session, prices reached a local peak of 107 dollars, but the market reacted to diplomatic signals from Tehran. The easing of tensions coincided with a tactical pause in US actions. President Donald Trump temporarily suspended direct strikes on Iranian territory, giving traders hope for a partial resumption of tanker traffic from GCC countries through the Strait of Hormuz. At the moment, shipping in this key chokepoint is almost paralyzed, and freight rates have reached multi‑year highs.

Asian markets traded without a unified trend yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.58%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.47%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.15%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.25%.

China’s manufacturing sector in March 2026 experienced a noticeable cooling of growth rates, according to the PMI business‑activity Index from RatingDog. The decline of the indicator to 50.8 (after February’s 52.1) was more pronounced than the market expected (prediction 51.6). Although the Index remains above the 50‑point threshold separating growth from stagnation, the report revealed serious structural challenges caused by global instability.