InvestMacro

On Tuesday, the US stock indices finished the session in the green, supported by encouraging inflation data that reduced the likelihood of a Fed rate hike this month. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones index (US30) rose by 0.02%. The S&P 500 index (US500) gained 0.38%. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed Tuesday in the green at 1.10%. Investor optimism outweighed concerns related to rising energy prices amid the US-Iran conflict, allowing the technology and financial sectors to show a confident recovery.

The semiconductor sector recovered a significant portion of the previous day’s losses: shares of Nvidia, Micron, and Broadcom closed higher. The banking sector showed mixed dynamics: JPMorgan and Bank of America rose following earnings releases, while Goldman Sachs jumped 9% after reporting better‑than‑expected financial results; meanwhile, Citi faced a sell‑off, losing 5.3%. A sharp contrast came from IBM shares, which fell 25.2% – the company missed expectations and warned of constrained client spending, as businesses are currently concentrating investments on chip and memory components.

In his testimony before Congress, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the central bank leadership’s firm determination to restore price stability and prevent persistently high inflation. He expressed confidence that, with the right policy course, the five‑year period of elevated inflationary pressure will remain in the past. The head of the regulator described the current state of the US economy as resilient, noting moderate growth in consumer spending and stable increases in manufacturing output.

European indices closed higher on Tuesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.13%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed strongly at 2.20%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.11%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.30%. The positive dynamics followed the release of US inflation data, which came in below forecasts. This led to a decline in sovereign‑bond yields, easing financing conditions for major European corporations and restoring optimism across regional markets. The banking sector reacted with gains of more than 1% in BNP Paribas, ING, and Deutsche Bank. At the same time, energy companies such as Schneider and Siemens Energy strengthened, supported by renewed interest in artificial‑intelligence infrastructure.

On Tuesday, crude oil prices (WTI) held above $79 per barrel amid escalating military confrontation: the US carried out additional airstrikes on Iranian targets, and Tehran claimed responsibility for an attack on two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite overall tensions, prices retreated from daily highs after President Donald Trump announced he would not impose a 20% fee on cargo passing through the strait under US protection. Instead of direct tariff collection, Washington intends to replace these revenues with new trade and investment deals with Middle Eastern partners.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.74%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) closed up 2.33%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.52%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed at its opening price. On Wednesday, the Chinese stock market showed mixed dynamics. Investors reacted to ambiguous macroeconomic data: GDP growth in the second quarter slowed to 4.3% year‑on‑year, below market expectations (4.5%) and the lower bound of the government’s target range (4.5-5.0%). This was the lowest reading since Q4 2022. Another concerning signal was the acceleration of fixed‑asset investment decline to 5.7% in the first half of the year. However, the report also contained positive indicators: industrial production growth in June accelerated to 5.3%, retail sales unexpectedly rose by 1%, and the urban unemployment rate fell to a yearly low of 5.0%.

On Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.29% (weekly: -0.36%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.42% (weekly: +0.91%). The tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed Friday in the green at 0.33% (weekly: +0.84%). On Friday, US equity markets ended the week on a positive note, reflecting investor optimism ahead of the earnings season. The main event was the record debut of South Korea’s SK Hynix, which raised $26.5 billion in the largest listing of a foreign company in US history, with its depositary receipts jumping 12.8% above the offering price. The tech sector showed mixed dynamics: amid rising demand for AI‑related solutions, Nvidia and AMD shares rose 4% and 2% respectively, while Meta surged 6% thanks to a positive analyst report.

This week will be pivotal for financial markets, as investors will closely analyze Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony in Congress. After his appointment, markets began pricing in a more hawkish monetary policy scenario, and now traders expect signals regarding the Fed’s readiness to raise rates in September. Particular interest will center on how the current labor‑market weakness – reflected in recent jobless‑claims data – aligns with his assessment of inflation risks, which are being fueled by energy prices. Investors will also focus on the US CPI inflation report this week. Headline inflation is expected to slow below 4%, but the persistence of core inflation at 2.9% may complicate the Fed’s task. Additional clarity will come from retail‑sales and industrial‑production reports, which will show how effectively the US economy is coping with inflationary pressure and geopolitical uncertainty ahead of key Fed decisions.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to keep its key rate at 2.25% this week, continuing its wait‑and‑see approach. Analysts note the absence of any urgent need for changes: inflation risks appear contained, and the economic recovery is progressing gradually, making the current monetary policy appropriate. The Canadian dollar strengthened on Friday, rising to 1.41 per US dollar after hitting a 15‑month low of 1.425 at the end of June. This rebound was made possible by June employment data: the economy added 18,200 jobs, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 6.5%. The positive labor‑market dynamics significantly reduced expectations that the Bank of Canada would need to ease monetary policy in the near term to support the economy.

European indices closed higher on Friday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.20% (weekly: -2.89%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) rose by 0.15% (weekly: -2.12%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.32% (weekly: -2.36%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.24% (weekly: -1.71%). European equity markets are undergoing a correction after recently reaching record highs. The main pressure came from the tech sector: ASML shares fell 2.1%, Siemens Energy dropped 2.6%, and Infineon declined 1.3%. Market participants continue reassessing the outlook for the AI sector, questioning whether the significant speculative demand for infrastructure can transform into sustainable long‑term profitability for companies.

On Monday, crude oil prices (WTI) rose by roughly 4%, surpassing $74 per barrel and breaking a two‑day decline. The positive price dynamics were driven by a new wave of escalation between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, where an exchange of missile strikes occurred. The flare‑up in the region erased recent optimism linked to the temporary peace agreement, which had previously given the market hope for increased energy supplies. Tehran issued a statement announcing the closure of navigation through the strait until further notice, which was denied by US Central Command, but the mere fact of the incident significantly complicates prospects for diplomatic resolution.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.20% (weekly: -2.02%), China’s FTSE China A50 fell by 2.48% (weekly: -0.27%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.60% (weekly: +3.29%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed up 0.50% (weekly: -0.14%). On Monday, sentiment across Asia‑Pacific equity markets was mostly negative amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The exchange of military strikes between the US and Iran, linked to the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, triggered a spike in oil prices. This raised investor concerns about intensifying inflationary pressure and potential interest‑rate hikes by global central banks. As a result, most regional markets ended the session in the red, including Japan, Australia, and China.

This week will be decisive for the Asia‑Pacific region, where macroeconomic data from China will set the tone for global sentiment. China’s GDP growth in Q2 is expected to slow to 4.4%, reflecting ongoing structural challenges in the economy, despite a projected slight acceleration in the industrial sector to 4.7%. Investors will pay close attention to retail‑sales and trade figures, as well as credit‑growth data, which should clarify the effectiveness of recent measures aimed at supporting business activity.

On Thursday, US stock indices posted gains, finishing the trading session in the “green zone.” By the end of the day, the Dow Jones index (US30) rose by 0.27%. The S&P 500 index (US500) gained 0.81%. The technology‑heavy Nasdaq index (US100) closed higher yesterday, up 1.62%. The market recovery was driven by renewed investor interest in the technology sector, especially semiconductor manufacturers, whose shares once again saw strong demand. In particular, Micron and Sandisk shares rose by 5.2% and 7.6%, respectively, and the positive reception of SK Hynix’s US share offering – oversubscribed more than sevenfold – significantly strengthened confidence in the AI industry. An additional driver of growth was Meta, whose shares jumped 4% on news of plans to launch its own artificial intelligence chip as early as September.

Mexico’s annual inflation slowed to 3.37%, down from 3.94% in May and reaching its lowest level since December 2020. This result exceeded market expectations of 3.52%, allowing inflation to firmly settle within the Bank of Mexico’s target range (3% ± 1%). The monthly decline in consumer prices by 0.27% confirms the disinflation trend, giving the Bank of Mexico more flexibility regarding future monetary policy decisions.

European indices closed mixed on Thursday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.89%. France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.90%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 1.14%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session lower by 0.16%.

Crude oil prices (WTI) entered a correction, falling below $ 72 per barrel. This occurred after a sharp 4.4% jump during the previous session, triggered by the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran. The market is trying to assess real risks to global supply amid increasing strikes on military facilities and uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite concerns, actual activity in the strait remains ambiguous: according to tracking systems, shipping has slowed significantly, although some tankers continue moving, often turning off transponders for safety. Traders remain cautious, as high price volatility reflects not so much current physical disruptions as a preventive market reaction to the risk of a full blockade of this strategically important waterway.

On Thursday, US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices fell more than 4%, reaching $ 3.07 per MMBtu, the lowest level in six weeks. The main pressure factor was Freeport LNG’s announcement of planned maintenance at its Texas liquefaction facilities starting July 10, temporarily limiting export demand. The situation was worsened by data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), showing a 61 billion cubic feet increase in inventories for the week ending July 3, significantly above the five‑year average of 51 billion cubic feet.

On Wednesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.38%, China’s FTSE China A50 gained 2.63%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.70%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed lower yesterday by 0.26%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) rose to 0.695 USD. The macroeconomic backdrop for the country remains restrained after the IMF lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Australia to 1.9% and warned that inflation would remain at 4%. Ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s August meeting, the consensus forecast suggests keeping the key rate at 4.35%. Nevertheless, the market is pricing in a 60% probability of a final rate hike by year‑end.

The offshore yuan (CNY) strengthened to around 6.78 per dollar, continuing its upward trend and reaching a three‑week high. Investor confidence was boosted by actions from the People’s Bank of China, which set the daily reference rate at 6.7989, lowering it below the psychologically important 6.80 threshold for the first time since 2023. The market interpreted this step as a clear signal that the regulator is ready to allow further strengthening of the national currency and does not intend to actively resist market trends.

On Wednesday, US stock indices showed mixed dynamics amid geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.09%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.28%. The technology‑heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher yesterday by 0.27%. The S&P 500 and the industrial Dow Jones declined, reflecting investor concerns over rising energy prices following President Trump’s statements about ending the ceasefire with Iran. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 received support from the semiconductor sector, which began recovering after recent sell‑offs.

The macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging: Treasury yields rose, and the minutes of the June Federal Reserve meeting confirmed the regulator’s readiness to raise rates further if inflation remains persistent. This put pressure on sectors sensitive to credit conditions: JPMorgan shares fell by 2.5%, and Visa by 1.3%. Shares of major tech giants such as Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft also declined due to investor doubts about the profitability of large‑scale spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its global growth expectations for the current year at 3%, only 0.1 percentage points below the April estimate. Such resilience of the global economy is attributed to successful adaptation to the consequences of the conflict with Iran, as well as significant inflows of investment into artificial intelligence technologies. The outlook for 2027 was revised upward – from 3.2% to 3.4%.

European indices closed mixed on Tuesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 2.23%. France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 2.18%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 2.73%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session lower by 1.66%. The yield on 10‑year German government bonds (Bunds) rose to 3.1%, the highest level since May 21, marking the longest upward streak since the beginning of the year. The main driver of the sell‑off in the bond market was concern about accelerating inflation amid a sharp rise in oil prices caused by the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran. This means the European Central Bank will have to keep interest rates high for a longer period. Markets are currently pricing in more than 30 basis points of additional tightening by the ECB this year, increasing the likelihood of a rate hike as early as September.

Crude oil prices surged sharply by 7%, reaching 75.6 dollars per barrel. This jump was a reaction to the rapid escalation of the conflict in the Middle East: after President Trump’s statements about ending the ceasefire with Iran and threats of new military strikes, Tehran reported attacks on US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. The situation worsened after Washington revoked exemptions for Iranian oil exports, raising concerns about a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global energy supplies passes.

On Wednesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.11%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 0.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 2.99%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed lower by 0.21%.

On Thursday, Australian stocks declined again, marking the fourth consecutive session of losses. The main pressure on the market came from the non‑energy mining sector, healthcare, processing industries, and financials, while investors remained cautious ahead of important inflation and producer price data in China. Negative sentiment was reinforced by a statement from the deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Sarah Hunter, who warned that the country may need a period of slower economic growth and rising unemployment to combat inflation expectations.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.25%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.45%. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed lower yesterday by 1.16%. The technology sector came under strong pressure due to a sell‑off in semiconductor stocks. Investors focused on risks in the field of artificial intelligence: despite Samsung’s impressive results, the report failed to meet the market’s elevated expectations, which triggered declines in Micron (-4.7%), AMD (-6.5%), and Intel (-9.7%). An additional negative factor was reports that the Chinese company DeepSeek is developing its own AI chip, which heightened concerns about future competition. Sentiment also deteriorated due to geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where attacks on tankers triggered a spike in oil prices, leading to higher Treasury yields and raising concerns about inflation.

In May 2026, the US trade deficit widened significantly, reaching 77.6 billion dollars compared with the revised April figure of 54.6 billion dollars. This result was the largest gap since March 2025 and was close to market expectations, which expected around 78.5 billion dollars. The sharp increase in the deficit was driven by simultaneous growth in imports and a decline in exports of goods and services. Analysts note that the current dynamics of foreign trade may negatively affect GDP figures in the second quarter, while uncertainty in trade policy persists amid ongoing annual trade reviews and tariff measures.

Data on Canada’s Ivey PMI for June 2026 confirm a slowdown in economic growth. The Index fell to 56.2 points from May’s 58.2, below analysts’ expectations of 59.1. This decline ended a three‑month series of index increases and marked its lowest reading since March of this year.

European indices closed mixed on Tuesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.37%. France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.51%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.22%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session higher by 0.13%.

On Tuesday, oil prices surged sharply, rising 5% and reaching 72 dollars per barrel for WTI. The main catalyst for the price spike was the escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, where an attack occurred on three tankers, including a Qatari LNG carrier, once again threatening the security of a key energy corridor and raising concerns about supply disruptions. In response to the escalation, the US Treasury announced the revocation of a general license that just weeks earlier had temporarily allowed the sale of Iranian oil. This decision, made less than three weeks after the easing was introduced, effectively ends the recent sanctions exemptions.

On Tuesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.12%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 0.38%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 0.51%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed lower yesterday by 0.31%.

The New Zealand dollar strengthened to 0.571 USD after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly raised the base rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%. This decision became the first step toward monetary tightening in more than three years, highlighting the regulator’s determination to contain inflation without creating excessive pressure on economic activity. Markets reacted optimistically to the news, as the bank provided clear signals of a likely continuation of the rate‑hike cycle this year. At present, most economists expect at least one or two additional increases, and the probability of a similar move in October is already almost fully priced in.

On Wednesday, the Australian dollar was trading near 0.694 USD, holding near its three‑month lows. Pressure on the Australian currency is driven by a sharp deterioration in global risk appetite amid the escalation of the US-Iran conflict. Investors are massively shifting capital into the US dollar as a “safe haven,” especially after Washington carried out new strikes on Iran and revoked permission for Iranian oil exports, which once again triggered concerns about energy shortages and inflation risks. The deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia stated that current oil price spikes negatively affect consumer and business confidence, but emphasized the overall resilience of the national economy.

On Wednesday, the offshore yuan strengthened to 6.79 per dollar, beginning a recovery after recent declines. The main driver of optimism was the policy of the People’s Bank of China, which set the daily fixing at 6.8077 – only 59 points below analysts’ outlooks. Such a minimal gap between the official rate and market estimates indicates the regulator’s intention to actively curb the weakening of the national currency, which became a signal of increased state support for the yuan.

On Monday, US stock indices closed higher, supported by renewed interest in the technology sector and companies linked to artificial intelligence. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.29%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.72%. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed higher by 1.12%. Market leaders were semiconductor manufacturers and major tech companies. The sector was supported by news of expanded partnership between Broadcom and Apple, as well as optimistic statements from Hon Hai Precision Industry regarding demand for AI technologies. Despite the fact that most stocks within the S&P 500 Index declined, the rise of heavyweight tech companies allowed the market to start the week on a positive note. Economic data published that day confirmed that the US services sector remains in expansion territory (PMI at 51.2), although growth has slightly slowed and companies continue hiring amid some easing of price pressure. Investors maintain cautious optimism ahead of Wednesday’s release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which will help clarify the future trajectory of monetary policy as the regulator balances inflation risks and labor‑market dynamics.

European indices closed higher on Monday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.15% and updated its all‑time high. France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.33%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.85%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session lower by 0.26%. Investor optimism was driven by expectations of strong quarterly reports from technology companies and falling oil prices. A significant event of the day was the German cabinet’s approval of the 2027 budget draft. The document proposes a sharp increase in government spending to 555.4 billion euros, with particular emphasis on defense: military expenditures are planned to rise to 109.7 billion euros, one‑third higher than this year’s levels. This decision aims to fulfill NATO commitments and strengthen the country’s sovereignty.

On Monday, WTI crude oil prices traded near 69 dollars per barrel, remaining at their lowest levels since late February. Pressure on prices intensified after OPEC+ countries agreed to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day next month, confirming a course toward gradually expanding supply. The physical market also contributes to lower prices: exports from Saudi Arabia are approaching pre‑war volumes, and the United Arab Emirates have fully restored their maritime shipments.

Platinum prices (XPT) traded near 1,630 dollars per ounce, maintaining a sideways trend around the lowest levels since November 2025. The main pressure on the metal continues to come from the strengthening US dollar, although the decline in prices is limited by signs of cooling in the US labor market, which forces investors to reassess expectations regarding the pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes. Fundamentally, the platinum market remains structurally tight despite current price volatility. Production at South African mines continues to face disruptions due to electricity supply issues, and efforts to expand output in Russia have not yet led to a significant reduction in the structural deficit or an increase in limited above‑ground inventories.

On Monday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.01%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 0.33%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.14%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed lower yesterday by 0.15%. On Tuesday, Chinese indices traded in the red. Market sentiment deteriorated noticeably after the World Bank published its economic expectation for China, predicting a slowdown in growth to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. The main reasons for this revision, according to experts, are the prolonged downturn in the real estate sector and subdued consumer demand. Despite the negative dynamics, Beijing and Hong Kong continue implementing initiatives to strengthen the city’s position as a leading offshore center for yuan operations, including the development of bond‑trading instruments and expansion of currency operations.

On Friday, US indices were not traded due to a public holiday in the United States. By the end of the week, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 2.12%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 2.33%. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed higher by 1.00% over five trading days.

This week, market attention in the US will be focused on the release of the minutes from the June meeting of the Federal Reserve (June 16-17, 2026), at which the regulator under its new chair Kevin Warsh kept the interest rate at 3.5-3.75%. Investors will look for details of discussions on future tightening, considering the committee’s hawkish signal about readiness for further rate hikes before year‑end to combat inflationary pressure. In addition, the macroeconomic calendar includes important indicators of economic conditions. The ISM services PMI is expected to show sector resilience, and existing home sales may reach their highest level since the beginning of the year. A significant widening of the trade deficit to 78.8 billion dollars is also expected amid rising imports and declining exports. The market will also pay attention to consumer credit data and inflation expectations, which will complement the overall picture of economic slowdown amid persistent high inflation.

The Canadian dollar continues to trade near yearly lows, holding around 1.42 USD. The main factor pressuring the national currency remains the combination of unfavorable conditions in energy markets and high uncertainty in trade relations with the US. Despite the general weakening of the US dollar after the release of weak US nonfarm payrolls data, the Canadian dollar could not fully benefit from this, as falling global oil prices negatively affected the country’s trade balance, reinforcing expectations of dovish policy from the Bank of Canada (BoC).

The Mexican peso at the beginning of July remains near 17.5 per dollar, balancing under the influence of conflicting factors. On one hand, the weakening of the US dollar amid weak June labor market statistics and correction in energy prices supports the national currency, reducing inflation risks. On the other hand, significant pressure comes from growing uncertainty surrounding North American trade relations, caused by the US administration’s decision not to extend the USMCA agreement in its current form.

European indices closed higher on Friday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.78% (weekly +4.27%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.39% (weekly +1.54%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.92% (weekly +2.37%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session higher by 0.25% (weekly +1.63%).

The European agenda for the current week is focused on central bank signals and industrial sector recovery. On Thursday, the ECB will publish the minutes of its June meeting, at which the regulator decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%. Investors will analyze these details to assess the ECB’s further plans for monetary policy normalization amid slowing inflation. The macroeconomic calendar of Germany and other Eurozone countries shows cautious signs of recovery: German industrial production is expected to grow for the second consecutive month, and manufacturing orders are expected to begin recovering. At the same time, pressure on trade indicators persists: Germany’s trade surplus may shrink for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting the impact of geopolitical factors on exports.

Brent crude oil prices at the beginning of July 2026 stabilized around 70-72 dollars per barrel, showing a pronounced downward trend amid weakening geopolitical premium. The key factor behind this decline was progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, which led to the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz and normalization of hydrocarbon shipments. As logistics routes recovered, export volumes from Persian Gulf countries increased significantly: Saudi Arabia’s exports returned to 90% of pre‑war levels, and shipments from the UAE and Iraq also showed steady recovery. The rise in global supply, coinciding with signs of slowing demand from China, forced investors and major financial institutions such as UBS and Morgan Stanley to revise oil price expectations downward, removing concerns about large‑scale supply disruptions from market pricing.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.47% (weekly +0.19%), China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 0.57% (weekly -2.77%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.28% (weekly +1.73%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed higher by 1.37% (weekly +0.77%).

In the upcoming week, the economic landscape of the Asia‑Pacific region will be shaped by central bank decisions and key inflation indicators. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will be in focus: despite broad expectations of a 25‑basis‑point rate hike to 2.5%, some analysts allow for the possibility of keeping the current level at 2.25% due to the impact of falling energy prices on overall inflation risks. China will publish inflation data, where consumer prices are expected to remain at 1.2% while producer inflation accelerates to 4.1%. In Japan, the market will focus on a wide range of data, including household spending, producer prices, and a 37.4% increase in machinery orders, which, amid pressure on the yen, makes these reports critically important for assessing the resilience of the Japanese economy.

On Thursday, US indices showed mixed dynamics, reflecting a deep split between the overheated technology sector and the “traditional” economy. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.14%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) closed at its opening price. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed lower by 0.80%. Semiconductor manufacturers (Micron, Applied Materials, AMD, SanDisk, Marvell) continued a second wave of sell‑offs amid doubts about the sustainability of AI‑company valuations, while the Dow Jones Index updated its historical high. The key driver of Dow’s growth was US employment data, which came in weaker than expected. This cooled market fears regarding immediate Fed tightening and offset negative sentiment.

European indices closed in the green on Thursday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 2.16%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.65%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.37%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session higher by 1.67%. On Thursday, the DAX 40 Index showed impressive growth, updating its historical high. The main driver of optimism was a large reform package from Friedrich Merz’s government, including tax relief for households and housing‑sector initiatives, which, combined with weakening hawkish expectations for Fed and ECB policy, created a favorable investment environment.

The US natural gas prices fell below 3.2 dollars per MMBtu amid oversupply and bearish dynamics in related energy markets. According to the EIA report, weekly storage injections reached 87 billion cubic feet, exceeding expectations and keeping inventories 6.2% above historical averages. Fundamental pressure is complemented by high production activity: output in the continental states remains near a record 110 billion cubic feet per day, while LNG export capacity is steadily loaded at 17.3 billion cubic feet per day.

Oil prices (WTI) fell by 2% to around 67 dollars per barrel, reaching pre‑war levels amid a sharp increase in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which exceeded 10 million barrels per day. The market is reacting to the recovery of export flows from the UAE and active releases of oil from reserves, which, along with one‑off sales by Saudi Arabia, form a persistent oversupply. Meanwhile, US domestic oil inventories have reached their lowest level since March 2025, reflecting the consequences of a twelve‑week period of continuous declines.

On Thursday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.47%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 3.11%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.76%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed higher yesterday by 0.02%. Market optimism was driven by improved global risk sentiment after weak US labor‑market data, which reduced fears of further Fed rate hikes. Additional support for risk appetite came from falling oil prices amid normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which eased inflationary pressure and created a favorable backdrop for a wide range of assets.

The Australian dollar is strengthening for the second session in a row, approaching 0.690 USD and ending the week in the green. Growth is supported by the hawkish interpretation of the minutes from the June meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia: analysts at CBA and ANZ highlighted the regulator’s concern about excessive demand and capacity constraints, which signals persistent inflation risks despite market skepticism regarding further rate hikes.

The New Zealand dollar recovered to 0.570, breaking a prolonged downward trend and showing its first weekly gain in three weeks. The main catalyst for optimism was the weakening of the US dollar caused by disappointing US labor‑market data, which forced investors to revise expectations regarding aggressive Fed rate hikes. Positive dynamics for the kiwi are also supported by market anticipation of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision at the upcoming meeting. Despite expert discussions about the appropriateness of a pause in tightening due to falling global energy prices, market pricing reflects a roughly 78% probability of a rate hike.