InvestMacro

The US stock market closed in negative territory, reacting to the results of the June FOMC meeting. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by -0.98%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by -1.21%. The technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by -1.34%. As expected, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive pause and the first decision under the leadership of the new chair, Kevin Warsh. The updated economic projections revealed a split within the regulator: nine officials allow for at least one rate hike before the end of the year, six expect at least two increases, and another nine anticipate maintaining or lowering rates. The Fed’s main macroeconomic concerns have shifted toward price pressures: the PCE inflation projection for 2026 was sharply raised from 2.7% to 3.6%, and the estimate for the following year was revised from 2.7% to 3.3%. The Fed leadership noted that the US economy continues to show resilient performance despite geopolitical uncertainty caused by the Middle East conflict. At the same time, the labor market remains balanced.

The new Fed chair also announced the creation of five working groups that will review virtually everything: how the Fed communicates with markets, what to do with the balance sheet, which data to use, and how to measure inflation and employment. The Fed will now actively seek new data sources, which could potentially lead to a new model of monetary policy formation. This factor likely frightened markets the most due to the uncertainty it introduces.
Against the backdrop of sharp sell‑offs and a collapse in US Treasury prices, the technology sector came under heavy pressure, particularly the “Magnificent Seven”: shares of Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon fell by more than 2%.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to around 1.41 per US dollar, fluctuating near a seven‑month low following the results of the latest Fed meeting. Although the US regulator kept interest rates unchanged as expected, the updated projections were perceived as hawkish, since about half of FOMC members allowed for another rate hike before the end of the year. This increased pressure on the Canadian currency in the pair with the US dollar.

European indices closed in the green yesterday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by +0.10%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by -0.20%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained +1.35%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session higher by +0.14%.

On Wednesday, silver prices (XAG) fell below 70 dollars per ounce, reacting to the results of the Fed meeting, which kept interest rates unchanged but hinted at a possible hike before year‑end. Pressure on precious metals intensified because half of the FOMC members supported further tightening amid expectations of persistently high core inflation and a stable labor market. Such hawkish projections triggered sell‑offs in the bond market, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding metals in favor of fixed‑income securities.

On Wednesday, crude oil prices (WTI) rose by more than 1.5%, surpassing 77 dollars per barrel. The catalyst for the local rebound was a strong statement by US President Donald Trump, who warned of the possibility of resuming airstrikes on Iran if Tehran violates its commitments. This reintroduced uncertainty regarding the final ceasefire agreement, as the US leader emphasized that the signed memorandum is not the final step.

On Wednesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose sharply by +0.72%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by -0.10%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by -0.74%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed higher by +0.54%. In Asia, investors closely followed the final day of the Lujiazui Forum, where the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a possible transition to using the overnight rate as the main monetary policy benchmark. Additional uncertainty came from Vice Premier He Lifeng’s statement that Beijing plans to introduce anti‑sanctions measures to counter foreign restrictions.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) kept its base rate at 4.0%. This synchronicity is due to the linked exchange rate system, which pegs the Hong Kong dollar within the 7.75–7.85 range per US dollar and obliges the local regulator to mirror US monetary policy regardless of domestic economic conditions. Despite the high cost of borrowing, Hong Kong’s economy remains resilient: in Q1 2026, GDP growth accelerated to a nearly five‑year high of 5.9% year‑over‑year. The main drivers of the recovery were stable external trade and strong domestic demand, which helped businesses offset the negative effects of geopolitical tensions and logistics disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.

The US stock indices closed with a sharp surge amid the official signing of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran. The diplomatic breakthrough and the imminent unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices down by 5%, instantly easing global business inflation concerns. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.92%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.65%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 3.06%.

The drop in energy prices triggered a powerful inflow of capital into sectors directly dependent on fuel costs. The transport sector and the travel industry became the growth leaders: United Airlines shares rose by 3.9%, Norwegian Cruise Line gained 3.7%, and Carnival Corp. strengthened by 3.2%. Elon Musk’s space giant continues to rewrite records after its Friday debut. The company’s shares jumped another 15%, consolidating around 185 dollars per share and pushing SpaceX’s market capitalization to an unprecedented 2.3 trillion dollars. The main outsider of the day was the media group Fox Corp., whose shares collapsed by 17%. Investors reacted extremely negatively to the official announcement of the acquisition of the streaming platform Roku for 22 billion dollars. The market considered the deal price significantly overvalued.

European indices closed mixed on Monday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.05%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.40%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.43%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session lower by 0.39%.

The main beneficiary of the Middle East de-escalation was Europe’s real sector. Since the European region critically depends on hydrocarbon imports, the collapse in oil prices (which fell below 80 dollars per barrel on Monday) removed market fears of a prolonged energy crisis. The strongest upward dynamics were demonstrated by shares of automotive manufacturers and airlines, whose costs are directly tied to fuel prices. Investors are encouraged by the prospect of a full unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, which will begin immediately after the memorandum is signed in Switzerland this Friday. Under the terms of the agreement, the United States will lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports, and Iran will be obliged to fully clear the strait’s waters of deployed naval mines.

The Swiss franc (CHF) showed a confident rebound, strengthening to 0.79 francs per US dollar and recovering from a two‑month low. The weakening of the US currency was caused by overall market optimism amid news of the imminent end of the Middle East crisis. The decline in global oil prices to a two‑month low (around 80 dollars per barrel) significantly simplified the task for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) ahead of its upcoming meeting. Domestic economic indicators also confirm the disinflationary trend – in May the Index surprised by falling 0.4% month‑over‑month. The decline in domestic producer prices combined with the sharp collapse in commodity prices virtually guarantees that the SNB will keep its key interest rate unchanged at its June 18 meeting.

Large institutional investors continue to reduce their presence in metals. Last Friday, long positions in gold ETFs fell to a 6.5‑month low, showing a deep pullback from the 3.5‑year high recorded at the peak of the Middle East crisis on February 27. A similar picture is seen in silver ETFs – holdings there fell to a 10.5‑month low (the peak was reached on December 23).

On Tuesday, crude oil prices (WTI) fell below 81 dollars per barrel, extending the decline after nearly a 5% drop in the previous session. Investors are cautious as they await details of the proposed peace agreement between the US and Iran, which is expected to be signed in Switzerland on Friday. Although Donald Trump stated that the deal will restore the free flow of oil from the Persian Gulf, the absence of an official memorandum text is forcing shipping companies to delay vessel departures until full clarity emerges.

On Monday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) surged by 4.99%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 1.46%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.50%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed up by 1.25%.

The Australian dollar fell to a two‑month low around 0.705, reacting sharply to the results of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. The RBA decided to hit the brakes, unanimously keeping the base interest rate at 4.35%. This step followed an aggressive series of three consecutive hikes in February, March, and May, which the regulator needed to combat the second wave of inflation triggered by the spring blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Most economists agree that the RBA will remain at the current plateau of 4.35% at least until the end of winter (the next meeting is scheduled for August 11).

On Friday, US stock indices closed in the green zone amid two powerful drivers: the historic market debut of SpaceX and persistent geopolitical optimism. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.70% (weekly result +0.40%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.50% (weekly result -0.12%). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 0.64% (weekly result +0.52%).

The main event of the day was the triumphant debut of SpaceX on the NASDAQ exchange under the ticker SPCX. With an IPO price of 135 dollars per share, trading opened at 150 dollars. During the day, the stock surged by almost 30%, and closed at 161.11 dollars (a gain of 19.3%). This record IPO worth 75 billion dollars increased Elon Musk’s company’s capitalization to 2 trillion dollars. During the trading session, markets experienced short-term volatility due to a tough statement by Donald Trump, who warned Iran against disrupting the negotiations. However, markets quickly recovered after the publication of details of the draft peace agreement.

This week, investors’ attention will be focused on the first meeting of the US Federal Reserve under the chairmanship of Kevin Warsh. According to the general consensus of analysts, the American regulator will keep interest rates in the current range of 3.5-3.75%. The main intrigue lies in the rhetoric: whether officials will signal readiness to resume rate hikes at the end of 2026 to curb inflation, which was fueled by the spring surge in oil prices due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In parallel, the market will assess a block of important US macroeconomic data for May.

Retail sales are expected to rise by 0.5%, repeating the pace of the previous month, which, under high inflation, indicates the preservation of nominal spending at the expense of reduced savings. In contrast, industrial production is prediction to slow sharply – growth will amount to only 0.2% after a strong April jump of 0.7%. The real estate sector will also show cooling: analysts expect a decline in both housing starts and building permits amid high costs.

European indices closed higher on Friday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.76% (weekly result +0.77%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.83% (weekly result +2.67%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 2.59% (weekly result +3.05%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed higher by 1.63% (weekly result +0.99%). In Europe, the focus of global financial markets this week is on the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Norway, and Sweden. According to the consensus outlook, the Bank of England will keep the base interest rate at 3.75%, although investors hope to receive hints from the Committee regarding the overall trajectory for the rest of the year. The central banks of Sweden (Riksbank), Switzerland (SNB), and Norway (Norges Bank) are expected to keep their current interest rates unchanged, opting for a wait‑and‑see approach. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, Germany is expected to show a moderate improvement in the ZEW economic sentiment Index for June. This will mark the second month of recovery after a deep April decline to a three‑year low, although the indicator will likely remain in negative territory.

Crude oil prices collapsed by more than 5%, plunging to 80 dollars per barrel and hitting a two‑month low. The massive sell‑off was triggered by the official announcement of the long‑awaited peace agreement between the United States and Iran. US President Donald Trump confirmed that the agreement provides for the immediate lifting of the American naval blockade of Iranian ports. This will allow safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz to be fully restored by the end of the current week. In addition to reopening the strait, the framework agreement obliges Tehran to completely dismantle its nuclear program. In return, Iran receives a package of large‑scale economic incentives and legalization of its oil exports. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi officially confirmed that a compromise had been reached.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.81% (weekly result +0.11%), China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 1.50% (weekly result +1.64%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.93% (weekly result +0.55%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed up 1.98% (weekly result +1.14%). This week, the Asia‑Pacific region expects a dense flow of economic news.

Japan: The key event will be the Bank of Japan meeting (June 15-16). Against the backdrop of persistent inflation and a weak yen, the regulator is expected to raise the base rate by 25 basis points – to 1.0%. If confirmed, the rate will return to its highest level since 1995. Traders will also assess May data on inflation, trade, and machinery orders.

China: Investors will analyze a comprehensive block of May macroeconomic data: retail sales, industrial production (analysts expectation an acceleration to 4.6% due to IT exports), unemployment rate, fixed‑asset investment, and housing prices.

Australia: The Reserve Bank will likely pause and keep the refinancing rate at 4.35% after the May quarter‑point hike.

Other countries: Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia will publish trade balances, New Zealand will report Q1 GDP, and the central banks of Indonesia, Taiwan, and the Philippines will announce rate decisions.

The US stock indices closed with a powerful surge, fully offsetting the losses of the previous session and recording one of the best days of the year. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.86%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.75%. The Tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed up by 3.29%. The main driver of the explosive rally on Wall Street was the unexpected easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. During the day, US President Donald Trump shifted from warlike rhetoric to a conciliatory tone: after morning threats to deliver “very tough strikes tonight” and take control of Iran’s oil infrastructure (including Kharg Island), by the evening he announced on the social network Truth Social that the planned bombings were canceled. Trump stated that during high‑level negotiations a “big agreement” to end the war had been reached, and that it had been fundamentally approved by Iran, Israel, and key Arab allies.

An additional powerful boost to the market came from the technology sector, where preparations for the historic IPO of Elon Musk’s SpaceX, scheduled for Friday, June 12 (the expected company valuation is $1.75-1.77 trillion), were in full swing.

On the macroeconomic front, the situation remained mixed. Fresh data on the Producer Price Index (PPI) for May indicated an acceleration in wholesale price growth, confirming the persistence of high inflation due to the recent commodity shock. This data strengthened market expectations that the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) will be forced to raise interest rates at least one more time before the end of 2026 (traders consider December the most likely moment).
European indices closed in the green yesterday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.06%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.48%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.81%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session higher by 0.48%. The central bank of Denmark (Danmarks Nationalbank) raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points as expected – to 1.85%. The current account rate, deposit certificates, and discount rate were fixed at this level, while the lending rate increased to 2.00%. The Danish regulator took this step immediately after a similar decision by the European Central Bank earlier the same day. The moves by Frankfurt and Copenhagen were driven by the need to combat inflation risks caused by the new escalation of the Middle East conflict and shocks in the energy market.

Platinum prices (XPT) showed a powerful rebound, soaring more than 4% and breaking above $1,730 per troy ounce. This sharp rise allowed the market to move away from the six‑month low recorded during the recent sell‑off.

Platinum’s dynamics fully matched the broad rally in the precious metals sector triggered by the large‑scale de‑escalation of geopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, caution persists in the market. Experts emphasize that even in the event of diplomatic success, it will take considerable time to fully restore supply chains and oil export volumes. At the same time, platinum continues to be supported by a severe physical deficit in the long term. According to WPIC’s outlook, in 2026 the market will face a shortage of the metal for the fourth consecutive year.

Oil WTI prices stabilized around $90 per barrel, balancing between threats and diplomacy. On one hand, Donald Trump threatened strikes on Iran’s terminal on Kharg Island, although he ruled out a full‑scale war. On the other hand, the UAE and Iran held rare direct talks, restoring hope for de‑escalation. However, the decline in prices is limited by severe depletion of global inventories: reserves in the US continue to fall sharply, and fuel stocks in Singapore have plunged to their lowest level since 2013, confirming shortages at key hubs.
The US natural gas prices (XNG) fell more than 3% – below $3.10 per MMBtu, hitting a two‑week low. The trigger was the EIA report: underground storage inventories rose by 108 billion cubic feet for the week, exceeding the prediction of 101 billion.

On Thursday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.06%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 0.49%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.65%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.23%. On Friday, the Chinese stock market showed a confident recovery. The positive dynamics in China followed the general rally across Asian markets. The main driver of optimism was Donald Trump’s statement that a peace agreement on the Middle East could be signed as early as this weekend. Investors expect that de‑escalation will allow safe commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to be restored in the shortest possible time. Despite Friday’s rebound, both Chinese indices recorded weekly declines due to high volatility.

The US stock indices plunged to multi‑week lows. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 1.87%, the S&P 500 (US500) declined 1.62%, and the tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 1.98% lower. The main trigger for the panic sell‑off was a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions around Iran after President Donald Trump threatened Tehran with a harsh military response for dragging out negotiations. This instantly brought fears of prolonged escalation back to the markets and sparked another jump in oil prices.

The technology sector took an additional hit as investors aggressively locked in profits in semiconductor and AI‑giant stocks amid concerns of overheated valuations. Sentiment was further pressured by growing caution ahead of the historic SpaceX IPO scheduled for this Friday (June 12), with funds actively freeing up liquidity for the mega‑listing valued at $1.77 trillion. As a result, sector leaders closed deep in the red: Broadcom plunged 5.1%, AMD 4.9%, Micron Technology 4.7%, and market favorite Nvidia lost 3.7%. Tesla shares dropped 3.8%, and the wave of selling spread into the heavy industrial sector as well.

On Wednesday, the Canadian dollar (CAD) posted a moderate gain against its US counterpart, stabilizing near 1.39 per USD. The symbolic strengthening of the loonie was driven by the Bank of Canada (BoC), which, as expected, kept its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting. Governor Tiff Macklem noted that economic uncertainty remains extremely high due to the ongoing Middle East conflict and the threat of new US tariffs as part of the CUSMA review. Despite the BoC’s hawkish tone and rising market bets on a potential 25‑bp rate hike in December, the Canadian dollar still failed to meaningfully distance itself from its six‑month lows.

European indices mostly declined yesterday. By the close, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.97%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) ended 0.51% lower, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) slipped 0.18%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the session 0.27% higher. The main drag was the renewed wave of geopolitical tension in the Middle East following US military strikes on targets in Iran. In addition, market participants adopted a wait‑and‑see stance ahead of Thursday’s key ECB meeting, where the regulator is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points.

Global crude oil prices resumed strong growth, adding more than 2%. Brent prices surged toward $92 per barrel, while US WTI rose to $88-89. President Donald Trump issued a harsh warning to Tehran on social media, stating that Iran had delayed peace talks for too long and would now “have to pay for it.” The statement followed attacks by pro‑Iranian forces on infrastructure in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait – retaliation for recent US “self‑defense strikes” after the destruction of an American helicopter. Additional support for oil came from fresh EIA data showing US commercial crude inventories plunged by 7.228 million barrels last week – the seventh consecutive weekly decline and nearly double analysts’ expectations.

The US natural gas prices (Henry Hub) posted moderate gains, stabilizing around $3.19-3.20 per MMBtu. Futures were supported by updated weather expectations predicting a return of abnormally hot temperatures above seasonal norms in the second half of June, which will inevitably boost electricity demand and strain cooling systems. However, prices still remain well below the local highs reached earlier this month.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.89%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed 0.61% lower, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 0.64%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) rose 0.57%.

In Australia, consumer inflation expectations calculated by the Melbourne Institute held at 5.6%, unchanged from the previous month and remaining near three‑year highs. The current stabilization comes against the backdrop of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) tight monetary stance: three rate hikes since the start of the year have pushed borrowing costs to 4.35%, gradually cooling domestic demand and preventing secondary effects from energy‑market shocks.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.17%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.26%. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed lower by 1.12%. The technology sector once again came under a wave of selling. Notably, the decline occurred despite a positive external backdrop in the form of falling global oil prices. The main reason for the negative close was that Monday’s rebound in semiconductor stocks completely faded, and investors returned to profit‑taking.

The sector ETF iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) lost more than 3% by the end of the session, giving back a significant portion of yesterday’s 6% gain. Investor nervousness in the chip sector intensified after the fund suffered its biggest drop in six years last Friday – a 10% plunge driven by concerns over overheating valuations of companies linked to artificial intelligence.

Mexico’s annual inflation rate fell to 3.94% from 4.45% the previous month, hitting a four‑month low and returning to the Bank of Mexico’s target range (3% ±1%). This was supported by expanded government subsidies and tax incentives on fuel, which successfully insulated the domestic energy sector from the global commodity shock triggered by the recent conflict in the Middle East. The return of headline inflation to the target corridor significantly eases pressure on the Bank of Mexico and strengthens market expectations of a possible resumption of interest‑rate cuts at upcoming meetings.

European indices mostly declined yesterday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.74%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed with a 0.05% gain, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.27%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down by 1.41%.

Global oil prices (WTI) fell by roughly 3%, dropping below $86 per barrel. This marked the lowest price level since April 17 of this year. The main driver of the decline was the long‑awaited agreement between Israel and Iran to halt mutual attacks following the recent escalation. Strong pressure on oil prices also came from fundamental supply‑and‑demand factors. Fresh Chinese customs data showed a collapse in crude oil imports last month to 7.8 million barrels per day. This is China’s worst reading in eight years and nearly 4 million barrels per day below the average level of 2025.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.17%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 1.22%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.37%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.24%.

The offshore yuan (CNY) strengthened to around 6.77 per US dollar. Market participants actively analyzed fresh May inflation data from China, which reflected a deep divergence between the consumer and industrial sectors. Consumer inflation (CPI) in China rose by 1.2% year‑on‑year in May, slightly below the analyst consensus of 1.3%. In contrast, the industrial sector saw a powerful price rally: the Producer Price Index jumped to 3.9% year‑on‑year in May compared with 2.8% in April. This is the highest reading since July 2022, confirming a confident exit of China’s heavy industry from a prolonged period of deflation. Further pass‑through of these costs into final goods could hit domestic consumption even harder, although current consumer frugality is still restraining this negative scenario.

The Australian dollar held near a nine‑week low below 0.705 USD. Pressure on risk assets resumed after the fragile Middle East ceasefire came under threat due to new US strikes on Iran and accusations by President Donald Trump regarding the destruction of a helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz. Another round of escalation triggered a spike in energy prices, intensifying global inflation concerns and raising the risk of a prolonged period of high interest rates worldwide. Domestically, the situation is worsened by a sharp deterioration in consumer sentiment in June amid the ongoing rise in the cost of living and fuel prices. Under these conditions, market attention is focused on next week’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, where – despite inflationary pressure – monetary policy settings are expected to remain unchanged.

On Monday, the US stock indices showed mixed dynamics, with the technology sector beginning to actively recover after Friday’s devastating sell‑off. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.06%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.30%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 1.58%. The main driver of the rebound was the return of optimism regarding AI infrastructure and massive buying of cheaper semiconductor assets. Additional support for sentiment came from signs of de‑escalation in the Middle East: reports of halted mutual strikes between Iran and Israel, as well as Donald Trump’s statement about continued negotiations, allowed WTI oil prices to correct downward, losing their morning gains.

In the chipmaker sector, the leaders of the previous session’s decline moved to confident growth: Micron Technology shares jumped 9.9%, AMD rose 5.1%, Broadcom recovered part of its losses, rising 2.8%, and Nvidia gained 1.7%. Tesla shares also had a strong session, rising 4.6%.

European indices closed mixed. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.58%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.23%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.66%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session slightly higher at 0.05%. A positive driver for the stock market was the temporary easing of geopolitical tensions: Iran announced the end of its current military operation against Israel, and Tel Aviv paused its retaliatory strikes, allowing the US to resume mediation talks with Tehran. Against this backdrop, yields on European government bonds declined, supporting a rebound in industrial and cyclical stocks.

The oil market saw large‑scale intraday volatility. During Asian trading, futures for US light crude WTI surged to 95 dollars per barrel amid news that Iran’s missile strikes on Israel had disrupted a fragile ceasefire. However, by the end of the session, prices sharply corrected downward, falling to 91 dollars per barrel after Tehran’s official statement announcing the cessation of military operations against Israel. The market was further cooled by comments from US President Donald Trump, who reported progress in dialogue with Iran and the proximity of a new agreement. In addition to diplomatic de‑escalation, prices were pressured by fundamental supply‑and‑demand factors. OPEC+ ministers approved a planned increase in production quotas in July by 188,000 barrels per day, ignoring local geopolitical risks. At the same time, the market absorbed weak statistics from Asia: China sharply reduced imports of raw materials from abroad. Due to high prices and risks in the Strait of Hormuz, the largest Asian consumer shifted to using its own strategic oil reserves, which significantly limited purchases on the spot market and eased pressure on global hydrocarbon supply.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 3.85%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed down 1.59%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.22%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) did not trade yesterday.

The offshore yuan (CNY) exchange rate showed remarkable stability, holding near 6.78 per US dollar. The national currency was supported by strong fresh data. China’s export sector demonstrated phenomenal resilience: in May, export volume jumped 19.4% year‑over‑year, reaching a historic high of 376.8 billion dollars. On the other hand, China’s imports in May also surprised, soaring by 27.4% to 271.4 billion dollars, significantly exceeding analysts’ conservative expectations of around 25%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) managed to rise above 0.705 US dollars, but this local move did not help the currency break out of its two‑month low zone. The “aussie” received some upward momentum amid overall improvement in global sentiment following news that Iran and Israel had announced a halt to mutual strikes. However, this moderate optimism is fully offset by harsh domestic economic realities and the persistent strength of the US dollar. According to fresh data from Westpac and the Melbourne Institute published on Tuesday, Australia’s Consumer Confidence Index fell by 2.9% (or almost 3%) in June, dropping to 80.6 points. This marked the fourth decline in the indicator since the beginning of the year.

On Friday, the American stock market went through one of the harshest crashes in recent times due to a massive investor exodus from the technology sector. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.66% (week-to-date -0.58%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 2.64% (week-to-date -2.62%). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 4.77% (week-to-date -4.42%).

The catalyst for the tech panic was a strong US labor market report (172,000 new jobs versus the expectation of 85,000), which pushed the yield on 10‑year Treasury bonds above 4.5%, and 30‑year yields above 5%, intensifying fears of long-term high Fed rates. The main blow fell on semiconductor manufacturers, where Broadcom’s restrained outlook triggered a chain reaction and capital outflow from AI infrastructure. Broadcom’s own shares fell by more than 7% (continuing Thursday’s double‑digit decline), Marvell Technology and Micron Technology shares plunged by 16% and 13% respectively, while giants Intel and AMD lost about 11% of their value.

Statistics Canada published a strong labor market report that temporarily dispelled recession fears. The unemployment rate in the country unexpectedly fell by 0.3 percentage points in May – to 6.6% (the lowest level since January), while analysts had expected it to remain at 6.9%. The Canadian economy demonstrated surprising resilience despite triple pressure: the restrictive monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, prolonged tariff wars with Washington, and high energy prices caused by the Middle Eastern crisis.

European indices closed mixed on Friday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.75% (week-to-date -1.29%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.32% (week-to-date +0.58%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.38% (week-to-date +0.08%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up 0.08% (week-to-date -0.40%).

European stock indices closed in the red, reacting to the prolonged standoff between the US and Iran and the inevitable tightening of policy by major central banks. The main driver of sell-offs in Europe was the strong US labor market report, which strengthened expectations of a Fed rate hike, as well as the May acceleration of inflation in the Eurozone to 3.2%, causing markets to price in an almost 100% probability of an ECB rate increase at the June 11 meeting. The situation was worsened by a technical revision of Eurozone GDP for the first quarter: the bloc’s economy contracted by 0.2% due to a drop in Ireland’s GDP amid volatility in multinational companies’ financial flows.

Prices for American light crude oil WTI fell another 3%, dropping to $90.3 per barrel. While earlier in the week the main trigger for the decline was purely geopolitical, by the end of the week investors’ focus shifted to fundamental economic indicators signaling a noticeable cooling of global demand for raw materials. But on Monday, prices for American light crude oil WTI rose by more than 3%, surpassing $93 per barrel and fully recovering the late‑week decline. A powerful trigger for the renewed rally was a new escalation in the Middle East: Iran launched a direct missile strike on Israeli territory and issued a harsh warning about its readiness to expand military actions in Lebanon. Although Israeli air defense systems intercepted all missiles and no casualties were reported, this attack put the already fragile ceasefire agreement at risk, effectively bringing diplomatic efforts to a deadlock.

On Monday, platinum (XPT/USD) prices collapsed to around $1,760 per ounce, hitting the lowest level since December 2025. The precious metal came under heavy pressure due to the sharp deterioration of the geopolitical situation over the weekend, when Iran launched missile strikes on Israel. This step jeopardized the fragile truce and worsened the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors fear that entrenched cost inflation, combined with the recent strong US labor market report (Nonfarm Payrolls), will force the Fed and other central banks to keep interest rates at a strictly restrictive level, reducing the attractiveness of precious metals. Nevertheless, the large-scale collapse in platinum prices is being limited by strong fundamental factors on the physical market side. According to fresh outlooks from the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), the global market will record a supply deficit in 2026 for the fourth consecutive year.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.31% (week-to-date +0.34%), China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 1.62% (week-to-date -0.50%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.15% (week-to-date -0.87%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.70% (week-to-date -0.97%). Asian stock markets were swept by a powerful wave of sell-offs triggered by Friday’s crash on Wall Street. The main epicenter of the decline was South Korea’s KOSPI Index, which plunged by 8.8%, showing one of the worst days in its history. The catalyst for the panic was a massive capital outflow from semiconductor giants and companies linked to AI infrastructure, which began after Broadcom’s restrained prognoses. Other key regional markets – Japan, Australia, China, and Hong Kong – also came under cross‑pressure from macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks, recording deep declines. An additional blow to trader sentiment came from the sharp escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.73%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.41%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.53%. The main driver of optimism was the signing of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, which reduced the geopolitical premium in commodities, pushed oil prices down, and led to a decline in US Treasury yields. The NASDAQ 100 Technology Index closed in negative territory due to a deep drop in the semiconductor sector, which had been the main engine of the market throughout the current year. The main blow fell on Broadcom shares, which plunged by 15%; despite strong net profit figures, the company’s conservative revenue outlook for artificial intelligence (AI) chips failed to meet Wall Street’s inflated expectations.

European indices closed in the green yesterday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.60%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed with a gain of 1.15%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.55%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session higher by 0.27%.

The Swiss franc (CHF) stabilized at 0.79 per US dollar, remaining in close proximity to its lowest level since early April. Pressure on the national currency intensified after the release of May inflation data, which came in below analysts’ expectations and effectively deprived the Swiss National Bank of reasons to raise interest rates at the upcoming June meeting. Annual inflation in the country remained at 0.6%, which, although being the highest level since December 2024.
A sharp reversal occurred in the global energy market: prices for US light crude WTI collapsed by more than 3%, falling to 92 dollars per barrel and breaking a three‑day rally. The main trigger for profit‑taking and the drop in prices was the sudden appearance of diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle East crisis. The White House officially stated that Israel and Lebanon had reached preliminary agreements on a ceasefire. But the downward momentum in oil remained limited, as the real situation in the Middle East is still far from stable. Any breakdown of the announced ceasefire within the next 24 hours could instantly return WTI prices to their recent four‑month highs.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) recorded a powerful rally, rising above 3.3 dollars per million BTU (British thermal units) and hitting a four‑month high. Fresh data from the Energy Information Administration confirmed that US LNG exports soared to a historic record of 573.5 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent. Commercial gas inventories in the US increased by only 95 billion cubic feet for the week, which was significantly worse than analysts’ expectations of a larger increase of around 101 billion cubic feet, confirming strong physical undersupply in the market.

In Asia on Thursday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.36%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 1.40%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.48%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) dropped by 1.13%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) continues to decline against the US dollar, falling to 0.711 and reaching its lowest levels in the past two weeks. The weakness is driven by a correction in the technology sector and cooling interest in AI‑related assets, which negatively affects risk‑sensitive currencies, including the Australian dollar. At the same time, the US dollar is supported by persistent inflation in the US and expectations of continued tight Federal Reserve policy. The Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a cautious tone after three rate hikes since the beginning of the year. RBA Governor Michele Bullock noted that policy tightening is already affecting economic activity, but inflation remains too high for the regulator to signal the end of the cycle. The market is almost fully pricing in a rate hold at the upcoming meeting, but the probability of another hike by August remains high.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) fell to around 0.585 US dollars, ending the current week with a loss of more than 2% of its value. The downward movement of the national currency is driven by investors’ broad reluctance to take risks due to the lack of tangible progress in peace negotiations between the US and Iran. Nevertheless, the large‑scale decline of the “kiwi” was partially contained by tight domestic monetary factors. Market participants continue to actively price in a high probability of an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at the upcoming July meeting.