Archive for Economics & Fundamentals – Page 22

18 Sep

The discovery of a gravitational wave 10 years ago shook astrophysics – these ripples in spacetime continue to reveal dark objects in the cosmos

By Chad Hanna, Penn State 

Scientists first detected ripples in space known as gravitational waves from the merger of two black holes in September 2015. This discovery marked the culmination of a 100-year quest to prove one of Einstein’s predictions.

Two years after this watershed moment in physics came a second late-summer breakthrough in August 2017: the first detection of gravitational waves accompanied by electromagnetic waves from the merger of two neutron stars.

Gravitational waves are exciting to scientists because they provide a completely new view of the universe. Conventional astronomy relies on electromagnetic waves – like light – but gravitational waves are an independent messenger that can emanate from objects that don’t emit light. Gravitational wave detection has unlocked the universe’s dark side, giving scientists access to phenomena never observed before.

As a gravitational wave physicist with over 20 years of research experience in the LIGO Scientific Collaboration, I have seen firsthand how these discoveries have transformed scientists’ knowledge of the universe.

This summer, in 2025, scientists with the LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA collaboration also marked a new milestone. After a long hiatus to upgrade its equipment, this collaboration just released an updated list of gravitational wave discoveries. The discoveries on this list provide researchers with an unprecedented view of the universe featuring, among other things, the clearest gravitational wave detection yet.

A map showing five yellow points indicating operational gravitational wave observatories: two in the US, two in Europe and one in Japan, and one orange point in India indicating a planned observatory.
The more operational gravitational-wave observatories there are around the globe, the easier it is to pin down the locations and sources of gravitational waves coming from space.
Caltech/MIT/LIGO Lab

What are gravitational waves?

Albert Einstein first predicted the existence of gravitational waves in 1916. According to Einstein’s theory of gravity, known as general relativity, massive, dense celestial objects bend space and time.

When these massive objects, like black holes and neutron stars – the end product of a supernova – orbit around each other, they form a binary system. The motion from this system dynamically stretches and squeezes the space around these objects, sending gravitational waves across the universe. These waves ever so slightly change the distance between other objects in the universe as they pass.

Detecting gravitational waves requires measuring distances very carefully. The LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA collaboration operates four gravitational wave observatories: two LIGO observatories in the U.S., the Virgo observatory in Italy and the KAGRA observatory in Japan.

Each detector has L-shaped arms that span over two miles. Each arm contains a cavity full of reflected laser light that precisely measures the distance between two mirrors.

As a gravitational wave passes, it changes the distance between the mirrors by 10-18 meters — just 0.1% of the diameter of a proton. Astronomers can measure how the mirrors oscillate to track the orbit of black holes.

These tiny changes in distance encode a tremendous amount of information about their source. They can tell us the masses of each black hole or neutron star, their location and whether they are spinning on their own axis.

An L-shaped facility with two long arms extending out from a central building.
The LIGO detector in Hanford, Wash., uses lasers to measure the minuscule stretching of space caused by a gravitational wave.
LIGO Laboratory

A neutron star-black hole merger

As mentioned previously, the LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA collaboration recently reported 128 new binary mergers from data taken between May 24, 2023, and Jan. 16, 2024 – which more than doubles the previous count.

Among these new discoveries is a neutron star–black hole merger. This merger consists of a relatively light black hole with mass between 2.5 and 4.5 times the mass of our Sun paired with a neutron star that is 1.4 times the mass of our Sun.

In this kind of system, scientists theorize that the black hole tears the neutron star apart before swallowing it, which releases electromagnetic waves. Sadly, the collaboration didn’t manage to detect any such electromagnetic waves for this particular system.

Detecting an electromagnetic counterpart to a black hole tearing apart a neutron star is among the holy grails of astronomy and astrophysics. These electromagnetic waves will provide the rich datasets required for understanding both the extreme conditions present in matter, and extreme gravity. Scientists hope for better fortune the next time the detectors spot such a system.

A massive binary and clear gravitational waves

In July 2025, the LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA collaboration also announced they’d found the most massive binary black hole merger ever detected. The combined mass of this system is more than 200 times the mass of our Sun. And, one of the two black holes in this system likely has a mass that scientists previously assumed could not be produced from the collapse of a single star.

When two astrophysical objects – like black holes – merge, they send out gravitational waves.

The most recent discovery announced by the LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA collaboration, in September 2025, is the clearest gravitational wave observation to date. This event is a near clone of the first gravitational wave observation from 10 years ago, but because LIGO’s detectors have improved over the last decade, it stands out above the noise three times as much as the first discovery.

Because the observed gravitational wave signal is so clear, scientists could confirm that the final black hole that formed from the merger emitted gravitational waves exactly as it should according to general relativity.

They also showed that the surface area of the final black hole was greater than the surface area of the initial black holes combined, which implies that the merger increased the entropy, according to foundational work from Stephen Hawking and Jacob Bekenstein. Entropy measures how disordered a system is. All physical interactions are expected to increase the disorder of the universe, according to thermodynamics. This recent discovery showed that black holes obey their own laws similar to thermodynamics.

The beginning of a longer legacy

The LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA collaboration’s fourth observing run is ongoing and will last through November. My colleagues and I anticipate more than 100 additional discoveries within the coming year.

New observations starting in 2028 may bring the tally of binary mergers to as many as 1,000 by around 2030, if the collaboration keeps its funding.

Gravitational wave observation is still in its infancy. A proposed upgrade to LIGO called A# may increase the gravitational wave detection rate by another factor of 10. Proposed new observatories called Cosmic Explorer and the Einstein Telescope that may be built in 10 to 20 years would increase the rate of gravitational wave detection by 1,000, relative to the current rate, by further reducing noise in the detector.The Conversation

About the Author:

Chad Hanna, Professor of Physics, Penn State

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
18 Sep

The US Fed and the Bank of Canada have cut interest rates as expected

By JustMarkets 

By the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.57%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.10%. The Nasdaq (US100) Technology Index closed lower by 0.33%. US stocks closed mixed as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s outlook following an expected 25-basis-point rate cut. The median FOMC prognosis suggests two more rate cuts this year, but strong growth, a low unemployment rate, and an upward revision of core inflation have raised doubts about the pace of easing in 2026. Chairman Powell also showed caution, refraining from expressing confidence in further rate cuts. The Fed expects to cut rates by another 50 basis points by the end of 2025 and by a quarter-point in 2026, which is slightly more than anticipated in June. GDP growth expectations were revised upward for 2025 (1.6% vs 1.4% in the Jun prognosis), 2026 (1.8% vs 1.6%), and 2027 (1.9% vs 1.8%). PCE inflation this year is projected at 3%, the same as in June, but expectations for 2026 were revised upward (2.6% vs 2.4%). The core PCE inflation expectations also remained at 3.1% for 2025 but were revised upward for 2026 to 2.6% from 2.4%. The unemployment rate is still expected to be 4.5% for 2025, but the projections for next year were revised downward to 4.4% from 4.5%. Meanwhile, technology stocks were under pressure, with shares of Avidia and Broadcom falling by 2.5% and 3.5% amid reports of Chinese restrictions on Nvidia chip purchases.

The Canadian dollar fell to 1.375 per US dollar after the Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% and signaled that the easing campaign would continue. The move reflected a sharper-than-expected slowdown in activity, including a 1.6% contraction in Q2 GDP and a 27% drop in exports. The deteriorating labor market situation strengthened the case for policy easing: in August, net job losses and the unemployment rate rose to 7.1%, which reduced wage pressures and took the edge off inflation.

European stock markets were mostly lower on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.13%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.40%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) declined by 0.24%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positively at 0.14%. The Eurozone’s consumer price inflation for August 2025 was revised downward to 2.0% from a preliminary 2.1%, which is in line with the ECB’s target. Top gainers included Continental (+1.9%), Adidas (+1.7%), Bayer (+1.6%), and Infineon Technologies (+1.3%). In contrast, Commerzbank and Siemens Energy suffered the biggest losses, falling by 2.8% and 2.2%, respectively.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $64 per barrel on Wednesday. European officials reported plans to accelerate the reduction of Russian fossil fuel imports and called for more decisive measures to increase economic pressure on Moscow. Additionally, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 9.3 million barrels last week, the largest drop in three months.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.25%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.63%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.78%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.67%.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, following the US Fed, lowered borrowing costs to 4.5%, the lowest since November 2022. Chief Executive Eddie Yue stated that the move should support the real estate market and the broader economy.

The Bank of Indonesia unexpectedly cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% at its September 2025 policy meeting. Since last September, the Central Bank has lowered rates by 150 basis points, bringing the key rate to its lowest level since October 2022. Recent data showed that in Q2, GDP grew by 5.12% y/y, the fastest pace in two years, and annual inflation in August fell to 2.31%. Earlier this week, the government unveiled a stimulus package worth around $1 billion for Q4 to accelerate GDP growth.

The Australian dollar traded around $0.665 on Thursday. Data showed that net employment in August fell by 5,400 against projections of a 21,500 increase, driven by a sharp reduction of 40,900 full-time jobs. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. Despite the weak data, markets imply only a 20% chance of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia at its September 30 meeting, with expectations for November rising to 70% as inflation remains above target and policymakers show caution.

The New Zealand dollar fell to $0.592 after weaker-than-expected GDP data spurred bets on interest rate cuts. New Zealand’s economy contracted by 0.9%, worse than the expected contraction of 0.3%. Markets are now fully pricing in a quarter-point rate cut to 2.75% at the Reserve Bank’s October meeting, with a 24% chance of a more significant half-percent cut.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,600.35 −6.41 (−0.10%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,018.32 +260.42 (+0.57%)

DAX (DE40) 23,359.18 +29.94 (+0.13%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,208.37 +12.71 (+0.14%)

USD Index 96.98 +0.35 (+0.36%)

News feed for: 2025.09.18

  • New Zealand GDP (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • Norwegian Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
18 Sep

Fed rate cut is attempt to prevent recession without sending prices soaring

By Ryan Herzog, Gonzaga University 

The Federal Reserve on Sept. 17, 2025, cut its target interest rate as it shifts focus from fighting inflation to supporting the choppy labor market.

As financial markets expected, the Fed lowered rates a quarter point to a range of 4% to 4.25%, its first cut since December 2024.

The Fed’s decision to begin cutting rates comes as evidence mounts that the U.S. labor market is losing momentum. The headline unemployment rate has stayed steady at near record lows, but the underlying trends are more concerning.

At the same time, the fight against inflation is not over yet. While a cooling jobs market could lead to a recession, cutting rates too much could drive inflation higher.

So if you’re the Fed, what do you do?

I’m an economist who tracks labor market data and monetary policy, examining how changes in hiring, wages and unemployment influence the Federal Reserve’s efforts to steer the economy. There’s an incredibly large amount of data the Fed, investors, economists like me and many others use to understand the state of the economy – and much of it often tells conflicting stories.

Here are some the data points I’ve been following most closely to better understand where the U.S. economy might go from here – and the tough choices the Fed has to make.

Underlying trouble in the labor market

The labor market looks stable on the surface, but more granular data tells a different story.

The unemployment rate has remained close to historic lows at 4.3% as of August 2025, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But the number of long-term unemployed – people out of work for 27 weeks or longer – rose to 1.9 million in August, up 385,000 from a year earlier. These workers now make up 25.7% of all unemployed people, the highest share since February 2022. Persistent long-term joblessness often signals deeper cracks forming in the labor market.

At the same time, new claims for unemployment benefits are spiking. Initial claims for unemployment insurance – a leading indicator of labor market stress – jumped by 27,000 to 263,000 for the week ending Sept. 6, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. That’s the sharpest increase in months and well above economists’ forecasts. It suggests layoffs are becoming more common.

We also got news that past payroll growth was overstated. In a process the Bureau of Labor Statistics undertakes annually to double-check its data, the bureau recently revised its jobs data downward from April 2024 through March 2025 by 911,000. In other words, the economy created roughly 75,000 fewer jobs per month than previously reported. This implies the labor market was weaker than it appeared all along.

Finally, workers are losing confidence. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported in August that the confidence of people who lost their jobs in finding another fell to its lowest level – 44.9% – since it started surveying consumers in June 2013. That’s another sign workers are feeling less secure about their prospects.

Taken together, these data points paint a clear picture: The labor market is not collapsing, but it is softening. That helps explain why the Fed is beginning to cut rates now – hoping to stimulate spending – before the job market breaks more sharply.

Tariffs are complicating the inflation data

Even as the labor market softens, tariffs are pushing certain prices higher than they otherwise would be, complicating the Federal Reserve’s effort to bring inflation down.

Government data shows that businesses have begun passing the costs of President Donald Trump’s new import tariffs to consumers. In August, clothing prices rose 0.5% and grocery prices rose 0.6%, with especially strong gains for tariff-sensitive items such as coffee.

Lower-income households are getting hit hardest because they spend more of their budget on imported goods, which tend to be the lower-cost items most affected by tariffs. A report from the Yale Budget Lab found that core goods prices are about 1.9% above pre-2025 trends as tariffs raise costs for basic items such as appliances and electronics.

Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office, said recently that Trump’s tariffs have pushed inflation higher than CBO analysts had expected, even as overall economic activity has weakened since January.

Typically, a slowdown in the labor market is met with slower inflation. But while the CBO now projects that the tariffs will reduce the federal budget deficit by about US$4 trillion over the next decade – roughly $3.3 trillion in new revenue and $700 billion in lower debt service costs – but it will come at the cost of near-term upward pressure on prices.

This creates a difficult balancing act for the Fed: Cut rates too quickly, and tariff-driven price pressures could reignite inflation; move too slowly, and the softening labor market could tip into recession.

A narrow path to a soft landing

As it resumes cutting rates, the Federal Reserve is trying to thread a narrow needle – easing policy enough to keep the labor market from cracking while not reigniting inflation, which is proving stickier in part because of tariffs.

Markets are betting the Fed will keep cutting. The futures market is betting the Fed will cut rates by another half point by the end of the year. And the one-year Treasury yield has dropped about 150 basis points (1.5%) since June, signaling that investors expect a series of rate cuts through 2025 and into 2026.

At its latest meeting, the Fed signaled two more rate cuts in 2025 and at least one rate cut in 2026.

Such cuts would ultimately bring the federal funds rate closer to 3% and hopefully reduce 30-year mortgage rates to around 5% – from an average of 6.35% as of Sept. 11. If the labor market continues to weaken – with jobless claims climbing, payrolls revised down and more workers stuck in long-term unemployment – that expectation will likely harden into consensus.

But the path is far from certain. Cutting rates too quickly could cause inflation to spike, while going too slow could lead to further deterioration in the labor market. Either outcome would jeopardize the Fed’s credibility – whether by appearing unable to control prices or by allowing unemployment to rise unnecessarily. That would undermine its ability to influence markets and enforce its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices.

Another tricky issue is Trump’s public campaign to push the Fed to cut rates – appearing to do his bidding could also undercut Fed credibility. For what it’s worth, the Sept. 17 rate cut appears driven less by politics than by economic data. The Fed itself was projecting a year ago that rates would be much lower today than they actually are, suggesting it’s been following the data.

The economy appears to be slowing but remains resilient, which is why the Fed is likely to move gradually. The risk is that the window for a soft landing is closing. The coming months will determine whether the Fed can ease early enough to avoid recession, or whether it has already waited too long.The Conversation

About the Author:

Ryan Herzog, Associate Professor of Economics, Gonzaga University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
16 Sep

Fed, under pressure to cut rates, tries to balance labor market and inflation – while avoiding dreaded stagflation

By Jason Reed, University of Notre Dame 

The Federal Reserve is in a nearly impossible spot right now.

Markets are expecting a quarter-point interest rate cut to a range of 4% to 4.25% when the Fed policy-setting committee concludes its latest meeting on Sept. 17, 2025. After all, the slowdown in the jobs market, as well as a massive revision to past figures showing close to a million fewer jobs were created than previously reported, makes a strong case for lower interest rates to shore up the economy.

But at the same time, inflation – the other component of the Fed’s dual mandate – has begun to accelerate again. As rising tariffs squeeze consumer spending in sectors exposed to the harshest tariffs – such as clothing and electronics – other inflationary pressures loom over the horizon.

A slowing economy or rising inflation is a circumstance that policymakers want to avoid. But as an economist and finance professor, I’m increasingly concerned about the risk that they happen at the same time – a horrible economic condition known as stagflation – and that the Fed may be too slow in responding.

Between a rock and a hard data point

The Fed has been under pressure to cut rates for some time – including from President Donald Trump.

The reason markets and the White House are so interested is because what the Fed does matters. The central bank’s decision at its near-monthly meetings helps banks and other lenders to determine rates on auto loans, mortgages, credit cards and more. Lower rates usually lead more businesses and consumers to borrow and spend more, boosting economic activity. This also can drive up inflation.

For the better part of three years, the central bank has been focused on its generational fight against inflation. But now, with inflation down significantly from its 40-year high of 9% reached in 2022 and the jobs market sputtering, conditions finally seemed right to resume cutting rates.

The labor market has seen continued deterioration, most notably with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ revisions to nonfarm payrolls – in effect reducing the number of jobs economists thought the U.S. gained by almost 1 million for the year ending in March 2025.

But a recent uptick in inflation has made the Fed’s call more complicated.

Over the past four months, the consumer price index has consistently ticked up, with the most recent CPI figure indicating year-over-year inflation of 2.9% – well above the Fed’s target of 2%.

Switching focus to jobs

At the Fed’s last meeting in August, Chair Jerome Powell said that the risks to the labor market now exceed the risks of inflation.

For example, for the first time since 2021, the number of unemployed people have outpaced job vacancies as companies have moved to eliminate open positions before laying off workers.

Most compelling is the so-called U6 unemployment rate – which includes those in the regular unemployment figures and people who have stopped looking for jobs, as well as those who are working part time but are looking for full-time opportunities. That has increased over the past three months to 8.1%.

The evidence suggests that businesses are reluctant to add workers as tariff policy and broad economic uncertainty appear to drive hiring decisions.

The worst of both worlds

The short-term risk here is that a quarter-point cut won’t be enough to shore up the jobs market, and it may be too late to prevent the economy from tipping into recession.

The longer-term risk is more concerning: Not only could the economy contract, but it could do so while inflation accelerates.

The last time the U.S. experienced stagflation was in the 1970s, when an oil embargo caused the price of crude to double. This drove up inflation while causing unemployment to soar and the economy to stall. Policies aimed at reducing inflation typically exacerbate slowing growth, and vice versa. In other words, there were fewer dollars to go around – and those dollars were worth a little less every day.

The pain experienced during this previous bout of stagflation convinced a generation of economists and policymakers that the condition was to be avoided at all costs.

The Fed, which has consistently shown its hand and has guided the markets toward this week’s rate cut, now has to make what seems like an impossible decision: cut rates even if doing so will add inflationary pressures.

And there are other potential headwinds for the U.S. economy. For example, it has yet to fully absorb the impact of Trump’s immigration crackdown on productivity and output due to the loss of workers. Waning consumer confidence suggests consumer spending could soon drop. And a potential federal government shutdown looms in September.

In my view, it’s clear that a cut is warranted. But will it drive up inflation? Economists like me will be watching this closely.The Conversation

About the Author:

Jason Reed, Associate Teaching Professor of Finance, University of Notre Dame

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
16 Sep

Even professional economists can’t escape political bias

By Aeimit Lakdawala, Wake Forest University 

Republican-leaning economists tend to predict stronger economic growth when a Republican is president than Democrats do – and because of this partisan optimism, their forecasts end up being less accurate.

I’m an economist, and my colleagues and I found this by analyzing nearly 40 years of responses to The Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecasting Survey. Unlike most such surveys, the Journal publishes each forecaster’s name, allowing us to link their predictions to their political affiliations.

The respondents were professional economists at major banks, consulting firms and universities whose forecasts help guide financial markets and business decisions. Out of more than 300 economists in our sample, we could identify the political affiliations of 122. We did this by looking at the forecasters’ political donation records, voter registration data and work histories with partisan groups.

The pattern was striking: Republican forecasters systematically predicted higher gross domestic product growth when their party controlled the presidency, representing roughly 10% to 15% of average growth rates during our study period.

When we examined forecast accuracy using real-time GDP data, Republican forecasters made larger errors when their preferred party held office. This suggests partisan optimism makes their professional judgment worse.

What makes this finding particularly notable is its asymmetry. The partisan gap emerged specifically during Republican presidencies. Under Democratic Presidents Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Republican and Democratic forecasters made virtually identical predictions. That wasn’t the case when George W. Bush, and later Donald Trump, occupied the White House.

Interestingly, this bias appears only in GDP forecasts. When we analyzed predictions for inflation, unemployment and interest rates, we found no systematic differences between Republican and Democratic forecasters.

That makes sense, because GDP forecasts are inherently more uncertain than other economic predictions. Professional forecasters tend to disagree more and make more mistakes when predicting GDP compared to inflation or unemployment rates. This creates opportunities for partisan ideologies to sneak in.

We traced the bias to different views about the effectiveness of tax policies. Using Google Trends data to measure when tax cuts were in the news, we found Republican forecasters become systematically more optimistic precisely when tax policy discussions heat up.

Why it matters

Previous research has found that most people have a strong partisan bias when they make economic predictions. Our work is the first to show that professional economists can also succumb to such influences – despite their training and market incentives to be accurate.

Their errors can come at a high price. Financial markets, policymakers and businesses rely on economists’ forecasts to make major decisions. When the Federal Reserve sets interest rates, when companies plan investments and when investors allocate portfolios, they often reference these professional consensus forecasts.

Our research challenges a common assumption in economics: that aggregating diverse expert forecasts eliminates individual biases and improves accuracy.

This doesn’t mean professional forecasters are incompetent or dishonest. These are highly trained economists with strong financial incentives for accuracy. Rather, our findings reveal how even experts with the best intentions can be unconsciously influenced by their own ideological beliefs – especially when dealing with inherently uncertain data.

What still isn’t known

Several important questions remain unanswered. It’s unclear how this bias might be reduced. Would making forecasters more aware of their political leanings help reduce the effect? Or would developing new forecasting methods that weight predictions based on historical accuracy during different political regimes improve consensus forecasts?

We’re also curious whether institutional factors matter. Might forecasters at institutions with explicit political diversity policies show less bias? How do international forecasters viewing the U.S. economy compare to domestic ones?

Finally, our research focuses on U.S. forecasters during a period of increasing political polarization. Whether similar patterns emerge in other countries with different political systems, or during less polarized times, remains an open question.

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.The Conversation

About the Author:

Aeimit Lakdawala, Associate Professor of Economics, Wake Forest University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
16 Sep

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index is breaking price records again. In Thailand, there are plans to introduce a tax on gold trading in baht

By JustMarkets 

On Monday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index rose by 0.11%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.47%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed up 0.94%, setting an all-time high. The US stocks closed higher, driven by a surge in technology shares. Tesla jumped by 3.6% after CEO Elon Musk reported purchasing about $1 billion in stock, his largest open-market purchase ever, while Alphabet gained 4.3%, reaching a $3 trillion valuation and boosting the communication services sector. Nvidia ended the session flat, paring losses after a Chinese regulator stated the company had violated antitrust law, and Texas Instruments fell 2.4% on news of a Chinese anti-dumping investigation into US analog chipmakers. Trade tensions also persisted as President Donald Trump signaled progress in US-China talks, including a potential deal related to TikTok, though risks from tariffs and tech restrictions remain.

The Mexican peso strengthened to 18.4 per US dollar, its strongest level since July 2024, as the US dollar weakened and Mexico’s macroeconomic indicators remained stable, increasing the attractiveness of peso-denominated assets. Banco de México is maintaining a tight policy and signaling careful calibration even amid moderate inflation. Higher real interest rate differentials compared to peer countries, sustained demand for forward markets, and Mexico’s strong trade ties with the US support demand for local securities, limiting capital outflows.

European stock markets were mostly up on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.21%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.92%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.57%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.07%. The DAX Index in Frankfurt experienced some volatility. Investors are awaiting decisions from major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of Canada. The US Central Bank is widely expected to cut rates by at least 25 basis points. Meanwhile, attention remains on France, as Fitch downgraded its credit rating, citing rising public debt and increasing political polarization, which raises concerns about the size of the upcoming budget deficit.

WTI crude oil prices rose nearly 1% to $63.3 per barrel on Monday, extending last week’s gains as traders weighed escalating Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy facilities against expectations of an impending supply surplus. Ukraine launched a major strike with over 360 drones, briefly causing a fire at the 355,000 bpd Kirishi oil refinery, just days after an attack on the Primorsk export terminal, which handles around 1 million bpd. Pressure on Moscow intensified after US President Donald Trump reaffirmed his willingness to impose massive sanctions on Russian oil if NATO allies cease their purchases, which could alter global energy flows.

On Tuesday, silver (XAG/USD) stabilized at around $42.5 per ounce, trading near its 14-year high as investors prepared for an expected US Federal Reserve rate cut this week. Markets are almost fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut on Wednesday, with 67 basis points of cuts projected by the end of the year. President Donald Trump also pressured Fed Chair Jerome Powell for a more significant cut, citing weakness in the housing market. Elsewhere, the central banks of Canada and China are expected to ease policy this week, while the central banks of Japan and the UK are likely to hold theirs unchanged. On the geopolitical front, US-China trade talks in Spain showed progress, and talks between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled for Friday. Meanwhile, industrial demand from solar energy, electric vehicles, and electronics continues to intensify pressure on the physical silver market, while supply constraints support prices.

Asian markets had a strong day. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.89%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 0.46%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.22%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative result of 0.13%.

The Bank of Thailand and the Ministry of Finance are considering introducing a tax on online gold trading in baht. Officials state the measure will limit gold exports and make holding it in the country more expensive, as the influx of dollars from gold shipments has strengthened the currency. Bank of Thailand representatives will meet with gold traders on Monday to discuss the metal’s impact and stricter reporting requirements.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,615.28 +30.99 (+0.47%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,883.45 +49.23 (+0.11%)

DAX (DE40) 23,748.86 +50.71 (+0.21%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,277.03 −6.26 (−0.07%)

USD Index 97.31 −0.24 (−0.24%)

News feed for: 2025.09.16

  • UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
15 Sep

Oil continues to get more expensive. The Japanese Nikkei index has reached a new all-time high

By JustMarkets 

The US stocks had a mixed close on Friday. The Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.59% for the day (+0.89% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) dropped 0.05% (+1.33% for the week), while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed up 0.44% (+1.54% for the week). Investors interpreted weak employment data and low inflation as signs that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates this week. The Nasdaq jumped, driven by a 7.4% surge in Tesla shares and a 1.7% gain in Microsoft after the company avoided a potential EU antitrust fine, lifting the broader tech sector.

European stock markets were mostly down on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) fell 0.02% (-0.31% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.02% (+1.54% for the week), the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) dropped 0.08% (+2.86% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.15% on Friday (+0.82% for the week). European stocks closed slightly lower on Friday as markets continued to assess the global rate outlook and awaited France’s credit rating from Fitch. At the same time, pharmaceutical stocks across Europe fell after Goldman Sachs downgraded Novartis due to increasing competition from generic brands, causing the company’s shares to drop by 3%, while Roche, AstraZeneca, and GSK all declined by over 1%. On Thursday, the ECB signaled that its easing cycle was complete, with President Lagarde noting that the bank is now in a “good place” and that growth risks appear more balanced.

WTI crude oil prices rose more than 1.5% on Friday. Ukrainian strikes temporarily halted operations at Primorsk, Russia’s main oil-handling port in the Baltic, and hit three pumping stations that supply the Ust-Luga hub. Meanwhile, the US reportedly said it might force G7 allies to impose tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese and Indian purchases of Russian oil, and Canada convened a meeting of finance ministers to discuss additional measures. Further pressure comes from the International Energy Agency’s forecast of a record oil supply surplus next year, with OPEC+ planning to bring idle barrels back to the market in October, albeit at a slower pace.

Asian markets had a strong week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 3.03%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 1.88%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 3.73%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.11% last week. Japanese stocks reached new record highs, following gains on Wall Street. In Japan, investors continued to assess the Bank of Japan’s policy direction amid mixed economic signals and political uncertainty. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba recently announced his resignation, facing increasing pressure after a defeat in last year’s elections and deepening divisions within the ruling party. The Hang Seng rose by about 4%, marking its second consecutive weekly gain, fueled by reports that Beijing may direct state-owned banks to help local governments cover unpaid bills. However, gains were capped by concerns that the US could restrict supplies of Chinese medicines and tighten oversight of licensing deals for experimental drugs. Hong Kong-listed Alibaba jumped 7%, and Baidu surged nearly +4% after both companies began using their self-developed chips to train AI models, reducing their reliance on Nvidia.

China’s economy continues to face numerous risks and challenges, as evidenced by weak August 2025 data amid intensifying global issues. Economic activity was also negatively impacted by extreme weather conditions: the hottest heatwave since 1961 and the longest rainy season during the same period. Industrial production grew by 5.2% year-on-year that month, missing forecasts of 5.8% and marking the slowest growth rate in a year, while retail sales increased by 3.4%, the weakest showing in eight months and below the consensus forecast of 3.8%. The unemployment rate rose to a six-month high of 5.3%, and real estate investment continued to contract, highlighting the sector’s prolonged downturn amid tightening regulations on speculation and debt.

The New Zealand dollar declined to $0.596 on Friday but remained near multi-month highs on a weak US dollar. The US dollar was under pressure as slightly higher US consumer inflation data and a sharp increase in jobless claims maintained expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next week and beyond. At the same time, on the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s dovish forecasts continue to pressure the currency. RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby confirmed on Thursday the central bank’s forecast for another 50 basis points of cuts to the official cash rate by the end of the year, with the pace of easing to be determined by incoming data, particularly next week’s GDP report. Meanwhile, fresh data showed that New Zealand’s manufacturing sector contracted again in August, underscoring the economy’s fragile state.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,584.29 −3.18 (−0.05%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,834.22 −273.78 (−0.59%)

DAX (DE40) 23,698.15 −5.50 (−0.02%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,283.29 −14.29 (−0.15%)

USD index 97.62 +0.08 (+0.09%)

News feed for: 2025.09.15

  • China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 21:10 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
12 Sep

US stock indices hit new all-time highs, and silver reached its strongest point since 2011

By JustMarkets 

On Thursday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index rose by 0.36%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.85%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed up 0.60%. All three major indices closed at record highs, with expectations that ongoing inflation won’t prevent the Federal Reserve from easing rates next week. The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that consumer prices increased by 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding expectations, but the annual rate held at 2.9%, in line with projections. Signs of a cooling labor market were exacerbated by jobless claims, which rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since 2021. Traders priced in a 93% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the September 17th Fed meeting, while the odds of a more significant half-point hike increased.

European stock mostly went up on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.30%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.80%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.68%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.78%. Frankfurt’s DAX Index rose on Thursday as investors weighed the expected decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) to hold rates steady. The ECB left its three key interest rates unchanged as expected: the deposit rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%. Inflation remains close to the medium-term 2% target, and the overall outlook is unchanged from June. Among individual stocks, Airbus, Bayer, Heidelberg Materials, Zalando, and Deutsche Bank saw the largest gains, adding between 1% and almost 3%.

Sweden’s annual inflation rate in August 2025 rose to 1.1% from 0.8% in July, confirming preliminary estimates. This is the highest reading since February, although it remains below the Riksbank’s 2% target. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.4%, the first decline in five months, reversing the 0.2% increase in July, in line with flash data.

WTI crude oil prices dropped more than 2% to $62.4 per barrel on Thursday, breaking a three-day rally. Concerns over US demand and a global supply surplus outweighed geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine. The International Energy Agency noted a larger-than-expected increase in supply driven by higher OPEC+ output, and the group itself confirmed plans to boost production from October. Additional pressure came from an unexpected increase of 3.9 million barrels in US crude oil inventories last week.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) fell below the $3/MMBtu mark, nearing a two-week low due to weak LNG export demand and significant storage levels. Government data showed that for the week ending September 5th, storage volume exceeded the expected 71 billion cubic feet, compared to 36 billion cubic feet a year earlier and a five-year average of 56 billion cubic feet. Despite expectations of warmer weather and increased demand, surplus supplies continue to pressure the market.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose by 1% on Friday to $42 per ounce, hitting a new 14-year high, as strong expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week supported demand. Markets are currently pricing in about a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 17th Fed meeting, with the chance of a larger half-percent cut gradually rising. Safe-haven demand further supported precious metals amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Asian markets traded without a single trend yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.22%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 2.08%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.43%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed down 0.29%.

The offshore yuan weakened to 7.11 per dollar as renewed trade concerns negatively affected sentiment. The US has reportedly urged G7 countries to impose high tariffs – from 50% to 100% – on China and India for their continued purchases of Russian oil. This move is part of a broader Washington effort to pressure Moscow into peace talks over the war in Ukraine. In a separate development, China criticized Mexico’s plan to impose tariffs of up to 50% on vehicles and other imports from countries without free trade agreements, many of which are Chinese, calling the move discriminatory and subject to outside pressure.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,587.47 +55.43 (+0.85%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,108.00 +617.08 (+1.36%)

DAX (DE40) 23,703.65 +70.70 (+0.30%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,297.58 +72.19 (+0.78%)

USD Index 97.51 −0.27 (−0.27%)

News feed for: 2025.09.12

  • UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
11 Sep

Oil prices continue to rise amid a geopolitical risk premium. The Australian dollar has risen to a 10-month high

By JustMarkets

By the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.48%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.30%. The Nasdaq (US100) Technology Index closed up 0.04%. The US stocks rose to new records on Wednesday, supported by lower inflation data and a strong Oracle report. The Producer Price Index for August fell by 0.1% against expectations of a 0.3% increase, the first monthly decline in four months. The annual Producer Price Index was 2.6%, below the expectations of 3.3%, which increased hopes that Thursday’s CPI report would confirm the disinflationary trend. The inflation surprise, combined with soft labor market data, fueled bets that the Fed could cut rates by 50 basis points next week instead of the expected quarter-point change.

Oracle shares surged 39% after the company announced a sharp increase in cloud service orders, driven by demand for artificial intelligence. The company’s value increased by $85 billion in a single day, a new record. Nvidia (+3.8%) and AMD (+2.4%) shares rose, while Apple shares fell by 3.2% after the launch of the new iPhone 17 was underwhelming.

European stock markets traded mixed on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.36%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.15%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gained 1.29%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.19%. The ECB is expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged today, although updates to economic expectations and guidance on the policy outlook will be closely watched. Geopolitical risks also remained in focus, with Israel striking Hamas targets in Qatar and Poland intercepting drones that entered its airspace during a Russian attack on Ukraine.

Annual inflation in Norway for August 2025 rose to 3.5%, the highest since February, compared to 3.3% in July and in line with expectations. On a monthly basis, the CPI fell by 0.6%, the first decline since March, offsetting the 0.8% increase in July, which was also in line with projections.

WTI crude oil prices rose more than 1.5% on Wednesday to $63.7 per barrel, posting a third consecutive gain as traders balanced geopolitics and economic signals. The momentum accelerated when President Trump questioned the Russian drone invasion of Polish airspace on social media, triggering short-covering amid speculation that he might soon impose sanctions on Russian energy exports. This followed reports that Trump had urged the EU to join him in imposing tariffs on China and India, major buyers of Russian oil, to force Moscow to the negotiating table. Additionally, Israel’s strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar reignited Middle East tensions and added a geopolitical risk premium. However, the gains were capped as US government data showed a larger-than-expected increase in crude oil inventories of 3.9 million barrels.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.87%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 0.48%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.01%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.31%.

The Hang Seng Index rose to a four-year high on broad-based gains. In China, the sharpest drop in the Consumer Price Index in six months in August rekindled hopes for new government support, which could lead to an increase in consumer prices, while producer deflation hit a four-month low as Beijing’s efforts to curb corporate price wars were successful. Following a bilateral currency swap deal between China and Europe, shares in the real estate and financial sectors rose. Technology stocks also climbed, fueled by optimism about AI earnings after strong results from Oracle in the US. Alibaba rose by 0.6% on the optimistic outlook, and Baidu HK gained 2.6% after unveiling an updated artificial intelligence model.

The Australian dollar rose to around $0.662 on Thursday, nearing its highest level since early last November, driven by an improved risk appetite amid growing bets on a Fed rate cut. The commodity-linked Australian dollar also continued to benefit from rising oil and gold prices as escalating geopolitical risks fueled demand for safe-haven assets. Looking ahead, today’s speech by an RBA official will be closely monitored for further policy signals, as markets have generally priced in a 25 basis point cut in November.

New Zealand Central Bank chief Christian Hawkesby said on Thursday that the future path of the official cash rate (OCR) would depend on the pace of the economic recovery. The main prognoses for the OCR suggests a cut to around 2.50% by the end of the year. In August, the RBNZ lowered the OCR to a three-year low of 3.00% and signaled that it would continue to ease the rate as domestic and global factors constrain growth.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,532.04 +19.43 (+0.30%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,490.92 −220.42 (−0.48%)

DAX (DE40) 23,632.95 −85.50 (−0.36%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,225.39 −17.14 (−0.19%)

USD Index 97.83 +0.04 (+0.01%)

News feed for: 2025.09.11

  • RBNZ Gov Hawkesby Speaks at 02:15 (GMT+3);
  • Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
10 Sep

The French Parliament has passed a vote of no-confidence in the Prime Minister. Russia is attacking Poland, and Israel is attacking Hamas in the capital of Qatar

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) rose by 0.43% on Tuesday. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.27%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) finished 0.33% higher. All three major indices hit record highs despite signs of a slowing economy. Investors digested revised employment data showing that the US added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously estimated in the year ending in March, the most significant downward revision since 2002. This weaker job outlook increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, with debate centered mainly on the size of the reduction. Attention will now turn to the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports, which will be closely watched for clues about the direction of the Fed’s policy.

The Mexican peso strengthened to 18.6 per US dollar. In August, headline inflation slowed to 3.57%, while core inflation held steady at 4.23%, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Mexico’s cautious easing cycle will continue at a moderate pace. The minutes from Banxico’s August meeting confirmed that the board approved a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut to 7.75%, with the majority favoring a slower pace of cuts and a potential additional quarter-point reduction later this year.

The Canadian dollar is under new selling pressure and is currently the second-worst performing major currency of 2025, behind only the US dollar. A combination of a deteriorating domestic economy and ongoing tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on the loonie, making traders skeptical about its near-term growth prospects. Canada’s latest GDP release confirmed sluggish growth, highlighting the impact of weak domestic activity. In response, the Bank of Canada may continue to cut rates.

European stock markets were mostly higher on Tuesday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.37%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) rose by 0.19%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.14%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.23% higher. European equities ended slightly up on Tuesday, continuing their gains from the previous session. The French Parliament passed a vote of no-confidence in Prime Minister Bayrou as parties failed to agree on budget cuts, forcing President Macron to appoint the country’s fifth prime minister in less than two years. At the same time, bond yields traded quietly despite the turmoil, providing support for stocks ahead of the European Central Bank’s likely rate hold this week.

Russian strike drones have invaded Polish airspace, threatening cities approximately 40-50 miles from the Ukrainian border. Airports in Warsaw, Lublin, and Rzeszow were closed due to the attack. Poland has put its air defense systems on high alert and, according to preliminary reports, has shot down all the drones. On Wednesday morning local time, Polish armed forces stated that all necessary procedures were enacted to ensure the security of national airspace as Russia conducted large-scale overnight strikes on Ukraine. This is not the first time Russian drones have violated Polish airspace, forcing fighter jets to scramble, but this time, the number of drones crossing NATO’s borders was around 8-10, which does not appear to be accidental.

WTI crude oil prices rose more than 1% on Tuesday, surpassing $63 a barrel. The increase followed reports of explosions in Doha, Qatar, where Israel reportedly struck high-ranking Hamas leaders. According to eyewitnesses, Qatar, a key mediator in the Israel-Hamas conflict and a host of Hamas officials, was rattled by smoke rising over the area. This geopolitical shock added to existing bullish factors for oil. Prices were already supported by a smaller-than-expected OPEC+ output increase. Markets also anticipate that China will continue to build up its oil reserves, further tightening supply. Meanwhile, fears of new Western sanctions against Russia have heightened following its largest aerial attack on Ukraine in months.

Asian markets were mostly lower yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.42%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 0.35%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.19%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) had a negative result of 0.63%.

The New Zealand dollar rose to $0.594 USD on Wednesday as the US dollar strengthened ahead of key inflation reports. Traders are awaiting the release of the US PPI and CPI data this week, which could provide more clues about the Federal Reserve’s path for interest rates. Meanwhile, in China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, data released today showed that consumer prices fell in August and factory gate deflation eased, pointing to continued deflationary pressures in an economy facing slowing growth.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,512.61 +17.46 (+0.27%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,711.34 +196.39 (+0.43%)

DAX (DE40) 23,718.45 −88.68 (−0.37%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,242.53 +21.09 (+0.23%)

USD Index 97.76 +0.30 (+0.31%)

News feed for: 2025.09.10

  • China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • Switzerland SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks at 14:45 (GMT+3);
  • US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
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