Archive for Economics & Fundamentals – Page 23

Oil is rising as inventories decline. The Bank of Indonesia unexpectedly cut its key interest rate

By JustMarkets 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) rose by 0.04% on Wednesday. The S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.24%. The Nasdaq (US100) closed down 0.67%. In the July FOMC meeting minutes, almost all officials supported keeping the rate at the current 4.25–4.50%, with only Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller speaking in favor of a quarter-point rate cut to protect the weakening labor market. Their concerns were heightened after data from the Department of Labor showed lower-than-expected July employment figures, a higher unemployment rate, and a sharp downward revision of previous job gain numbers, which prompted Trump to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Markets believe there is an 85% probability of a September rate cut, with a speech from Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday expected to clarify his position.

European stock markets were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.60%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.08%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) fell by 0.08%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 1.08%. The Eurozone’s annual inflation rate in July 2025 remained unchanged from the previous month at 2%, matching the flash estimate and staying slightly above the market’s initial expectation of 1.9%. This is the second consecutive month that inflation has matched the European Central Bank’s official target. The rise in service prices slowed (3.2% vs 3.3% in June), hitting a three-year low since May and offsetting acceleration in most other areas of the bloc’s consumer basket. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, remained unchanged at 2.3%, the lowest level since January 2022.

In August 2025, the Swedish Riksbank kept its policy rate at 2% as expected, as inflation rose more than anticipated. The growth of real wages, previous rate cuts, and an increase in business confidence are creating some conditions for economic recovery, albeit at a slow pace. Given these conditions, the Central Bank decided to leave rates unchanged, maintaining its June assessment that the outlook is broadly unchanged and leaving the door open for further rate cuts this year if inflation subsides and economic weakness persists.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.4% to $63.2 per barrel on Wednesday after a weekly report from the Energy Information Administration showed a 6 million-barrel decrease in US crude inventories, providing moderate support for prices. Despite the overall decline, inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, rose for the seventh consecutive week to 23.5 million barrels, reflecting a sharp increase in supplies from the Permian Basin. Analysts noted that while the inventory decline is a “bullish” factor in the short term, the long-term outlook remains “bearish” due to an anticipated increase in OPEC+ supply and demand concerns. Futures have fallen more than 10% this year, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.51%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.03%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.17%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.25%.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar fell to $0.642, marking its fourth consecutive session of decline and remaining at its lowest level in three weeks following the release of the latest economic data. Australia’s private sector grew at its fastest pace since April 2022, with the composite PMI rising to 54.9 in August, driven by strong expansion in services (55.1 vs 54.1 in July) and manufacturing (52.9 vs 51.3), fueled by a significant increase in new orders and an expanding client base. Meanwhile, consumer inflation expectations fell for the second consecutive month, decreasing to 3.9% in August 2025 from 4.7% in July, the lowest level since March.

The Bank of Indonesia unexpectedly cut its key interest rate by 25 bps to 5.0% at its August 2025 policy meeting, following a 25 bps cut in the previous month and contrary to market expectations of leaving rates unchanged. This was the fifth rate cut since last September, bringing the key rate to its lowest level since October 2022. The decision reflects projections that inflation in 2025–2026 will remain within the Central Bank’s target range of 2.5 plus-minus 1%, a stable rupiah exchange rate, and ongoing efforts to support economic growth. The latest data showed that Q2 GDP grew by 5.12% y/y, the highest figure in the last two years. Meanwhile, annual inflation rose to 2.37% in July from 1.87% in June, a yearly high, but still within the Central Bank’s target range.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,395.78 −15.59 (−0.24%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,938.31 +16.04 (+0.04%)

DAX (DE40) 24,276.97 −146.10 (−0.60%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,288.14 +98.92 (+1.08%)

USD Index 98.25 −0.01 (−0.01%)

News feed for: 2025.08.21

  • New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • Jackson Hole Symposium (Day 1).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

RBNZ predictably cut rates. Investors are selling off risky assets ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) finished Tuesday up 0.02%. The S&P 500 (US500) fell 0.59%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed down 1.39%, hitting its lowest level in over two weeks amid a sharp drop in chipmakers. US stocks largely closed lower as losses in major tech companies weighed on the market. Nvidia fell by 3.5%, AMD was down 5.4%, Broadcom dropped 3.6%, and Palantir was the weakest performer in the S&P 500, plunging 9.3%. Intel bucked the trend, rising 7% after SoftBank announced a $2 billion investment, which fueled optimism about its turnaround. Investors are now focused on the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium, where Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday could provide insight into the September policy meeting and the possibility of rate cuts.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.38 per US dollar, nearing its two-month low of 1.386 from July 31, as investors digested the latest inflation data. Headline inflation slowed to 1.7% in July, largely driven by lower gasoline prices, but the Bank of Canada’s core measures remained near the top of its target range. The trimmed mean measure, in particular, was stuck at 3.0% in July against expectations of 3.1%, which pushed the market toward a more dovish stance from the Central Bank. This was compounded by an unexpected loss of 41,000 jobs in July, far worse than the 13,500 analysts had projected, and an unchanged unemployment rate of 6.9%.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading around $113,000, holding most of its losses after a sharp sell-off that sent it to a six-week low. The decline reflects the correlation between digital assets and tech stocks, as investors moved away from growth-oriented assets ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium. The sell-off was further intensified by reports that the Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating potential stock fraud and manipulation at Alt5 Sigma, which fueled broader risk-off sentiment in speculative markets.

European stock markets gained yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.45%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.21%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.34%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.34%. On Tuesday, European equities closed sharply higher, reaching their highest level since March, on optimism about steps taken to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. On Monday, European leaders met with US and Ukrainian Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy in Washington and announced they would provide security guarantees to Ukraine if it began to end the war.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) fell below $2.80 per MBtu, their lowest level since November 2024, pressured by near-record production and high storage levels. The average production in the Lower 48 states was 108.1 billion cubic feet per day in August, up from the record 107.9 billion cubic feet per day in July. The latest EIA data showed that storage inventories grew by 56 billion cubic feet for the week ending August 8, well above seasonal norms.

Asian markets were mostly lower yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.38%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.28%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped 0.21%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day down 0.70%.

The New Zealand dollar fell by more than 1% to $0.582 on Wednesday, reaching its lowest level since mid-April, after the Reserve Bank, as expected, cut interest rates and signaled that further easing was possible. The Central Bank lowered the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to a three-year low of 3%, bringing its easing cycle to 250 basis points, as policymakers sought to revive a struggling economy and protect it from risks related to US tariff policy. Following the announcement, markets quickly priced in two more rate cuts by the end of the year, setting a 50% probability for such a move in October and more than a 100% chance in November.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,411.37 −37.78 (−0.59%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,922.27 +10.45 (+0.02%)

DAX (DE40) 24,423.07 +108.30 (+0.45%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,189.22 +31.48 (+0.34%)

USD Index 98.26 +0.09 (+0.09%)

News feed for: 2025.08.20

  • Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 04:15 (GMT+3);
  • New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • New Zealand RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • Sweden Riksbank Rate Decision at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

We tracked illegal fishing in marine protected areas – satellites and AI show most bans are respected, and could help enforce future ones

By Jennifer Raynor, University of Wisconsin-Madison Marine protected areas cover more than 8% of the world’s oceans today, but they can get a bad rap as being protected on paper only.

While the name invokes safe havens for fish, whales and other sea life, these areas can be hard to monitor. High-profile violations, such as recent fishing fleet incursions near the Galapagos Islands and ships that “go dark” by turning off their tracking devices, have fueled concerns about just how much poaching is going undetected.

But some protected areas are successfully keeping illegal fishing out.

In a new global study using satellite technology that can track large ships even if they turn off their tracking systems, my colleagues and I found that marine protected areas where industrial fishing is fully banned are largely succeeding at preventing poaching.

What marine protected areas aim to save

Picture a sea turtle gliding by as striped butterfly fish weave through coral branches. Or the deep blue of the open ocean, where tuna flash like silver and seabirds wheel overhead.

These habitats, where fish and other marine life breed and feed, are the treasures that marine protected areas aim to protect.

The value of marine protected areas for people and nature.

A major threat to these ecosystems is industrial fishing.

These vessels can operate worldwide and stay at sea for years at a time with visits from refrigerated cargo ships that ferry their catch to port. China has an extensive global fleet of ships that operate as far away as the coast of South America and other regions.

The global industrial fishing fleet – nearly half a million vessels – hauls in about 100 million metric tons of seafood each year. That’s about a fivefold increase since 1950, though it has been close to flat for the past 30 years. Today, more than one-third of commercial fish species are overfished, exceeding what population growth can replenish.

When well designed and enforced, marine protected areas can help to restore fish populations and marine habitats. My previous work shows they can even benefit nearby fisheries because the fish spill over into surrounding areas.

That’s why expanding marine protected areas is a cornerstone of international conservation policy. Nearly every country has pledged to protect 30% of the ocean by 2030.

Big promises – and big doubts

But what “protection” means can vary.

Some marine protected areas ban industrial fishing. These are the gold standard for conservation, and research shows they can be effective ways to increase the amount of sea life and diversity of species.

However, most marine protected areas don’t meet that standard. While governments report that more than 8% of the global ocean is protected, only about 3% is actually covered by industrial fishing bans. Many “protected” areas even allow bottom trawling, one of the most destructive fishing practices, although regulations are slowly changing.

The plentiful fish in better-protected areas can also attract poachers. In one high-profile case, a Chinese vessel was caught inside the Galápagos Marine Reserve with 300 tons of marine life, including 6,000 dead sharks, in 2017. This crew faced heavy fines and prison time. But how many others go unseen?

Shining a light on the ‘dark fleet’

Much of what the world knows about global industrial fishing comes from the automatic identification system, or AIS, which many ships are required to use. This system broadcasts their location every few seconds, primarily to reduce the risk of collisions at sea. Using artificial intelligence, researchers can analyze movement patterns in these messages to estimate when and where fishing is happening.

But AIS has blind spots. Captains can turn it off, tamper with data or avoid using it entirely. Coverage is also spotty in busy areas, such as Southeast Asia.

New satellite technologies are helping to see into those blind spots. Synthetic aperture radar can detect vessels even when they’re not transmitting AIS. It works by sending radar pulses to the ocean surface and measuring what bounces back. Paired with artificial intelligence, it reveals previously invisible activity.

Synthetic aperture radar still has limits – primarily difficulty detecting small boats and less frequent coverage than AIS – but it’s still a leap forward. In one study of coastal areas using both technologies, we found in about 75% of instances fishing vessels detected by synthetic aperture radar were not being tracked by AIS.

New global analysis shows what really happens

Two studies published in the journal Science on July 24, 2025, use these satellite datasets to track industrial fishing activity in marine protected areas.

Our study looked just at those marine protected areas where all industrial fishing is explicitly banned by law.

We combined AIS vessel tracking, synthetic aperture radar satellite imagery, official marine protected area rules, and implementation dates showing exactly when those bans took effect. The analysis covers nearly 1,400 marine protected areas spanning about 3 million square miles (7.9 million square kilometers) where industrial fishing is explicitly prohibited.

Two images show lots of fishing activity around the edges of the protected area, but little activity inside it.
AIS transponder signals over 2017-2021 (top) and synthetic aperture radar data (bottom) both show industrial fishing activity (yellow) mostly avoiding Carrington Point State Marine Reserve, a protected area off California’s Santa Rosa Island.
Jennifer Raynor, Sara Orofino and Gavin McDonald

The results were striking:

  • Most of these protected areas showed little to no signs of industrial fishing.
  • We detected about five fishing vessels per 100,000 square kilometers on average in these areas, compared to 42 on average in unprotected coastal areas.
  • 96% had less than one day per year of alleged illegal fishing effort.

The second study uses the same AIS and synthetic aperture radar data to examine a broader set of marine protected areas – including many that explicitly allow fishing. They document substantial fishing activity in these areas, with about eight times more detections than in the protected areas that ban industrial fishing.

Combined, these two studies lead to a clear conclusion: Marine protected areas with weak regulations see substantial industrial fishing, but where bans are in place, they’re largely respected.

We can’t tell whether these fishing bans are effective because they’re well enforced or simply because they were placed where little fishing happened anyway. Still, when violations do occur, this system offers a way for enforcement agencies to detect them.

A reason for optimism

These technological advances in vessel tracking have the potential to reshape marine law enforcement by significantly reducing the costs of monitoring.

Agencies such as national navies and coast guards no longer need to rely solely on costly physical patrols over huge areas. With tools such as the Global Fishing Watch map, which makes vessel tracking data freely available to the public, they can monitor activity remotely and focus patrol efforts where they’re needed most.

That can also have a deterrent effect. In Costa Rica’s Cocos Island National Park, evidence of illegal fishing activity decreased substantially after the rollout of satellite and radar-based vessel tracking. Similar efforts are strengthening enforcement in the Galapagos Islands and Mexico’s Revillagigedo National Park.

Beyond marine protected areas, these technologies also have the potential to support tracking a broad range of human activities, such as oil slicks and deep-sea mining, making companies more accountable in how they use the ocean.The Conversation

About the Author:

Jennifer Raynor, Assistant Professor of Natural Resource Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Some pro athletes keep getting better as they age − neuroscience can explain how they stay sharp

By Fiddy Davis Jaihind Jothikaran, Hope College 

In a world where sports are dominated by youth and speed, some athletes in their late 30s and even 40s are not just keeping up – they are thriving.

Novak Djokovic is still outlasting opponents nearly half his age on tennis’s biggest stages. LeBron James continues to dictate the pace of NBA games, defending centers and orchestrating plays like a point guard. Allyson Felix won her 11th Olympic medal in track and field at age 35. And Tom Brady won a Super Bowl at 43, long after most NFL quarterbacks retire.

The sustained excellence of these athletes is not just due to talent or grit – it’s biology in action. Staying at the top of their game reflects a trainable convergence of brain, body and mindset. I’m a performance scientist and a physical therapist who has spent over two decades studying how athletes train, taper, recover and stay sharp. These insights aren’t just for high-level athletes – they hold true for anyone navigating big life changes or working to stay healthy.

Increasingly, research shows that the systems that support high performance – from motor control to stress regulation, to recovery – are not fixed traits but trainable capacities. In a world of accelerating change and disruption, the ability to adapt to new changes may be the most important skill of all. So, what makes this adaptability possible – biologically, cognitively and emotionally?

The amygdala and prefrontal cortex

Neuroscience research shows that with repeated exposure to high-stakes situations, the brain begins to adapt. The prefrontal cortex – the region most responsible for planning, focus and decision-making – becomes more efficient in managing attention and making decisions, even under pressure.

During stressful situations, such as facing match point in a Grand Slam final, this area of the brain can help an athlete stay composed and make smart choices – but only if it’s well trained.

In contrast, the amygdala, our brain’s threat detector, can hijack performance by triggering panic, freezing motor responses or fueling reckless decisions. With repeated exposure to high-stakes moments, elite athletes gradually reshape this brain circuit.

They learn to tune down amygdala reactivity and keep the prefrontal cortex online, even when the pressure spikes. This refined brain circuitry enables experienced performers to maintain their emotional control.

Creating a brain-body loop

Brain-derived neurotrophic factor, or BDNF, is a molecule that supports adapting to changes quickly. Think of it as fertilizer for the brain. It enhances neuroplasticity: the brain’s ability to rewire itself through experience and repetition. This rewiring helps athletes build and reinforce the patterns of connections between brain cells to control their emotion, manage their attention and move with precision.

BDNF levels increase with intense physical activity, mental focus and deliberate practice, especially when combined with recovery strategies such as sleep and deep breathing.

Elevated BDNF levels are linked to better resilience against stress and may support faster motor learning, which is the process of developing or refining movement patterns.

For example, after losing a set, Djokovic often resets by taking deep, slow breaths – not just to calm his nerves, but to pause and regain control. This conscious breathing helps him restore focus and likely quiets the stress signals in his brain.

In moments like these, higher BDNF availability likely allows him to regulate his emotions and recalibrate his motor response, helping him to return to peak performance faster than his opponent.

Rewiring your brain

In essence, athletes who repeatedly train and compete in pressure-filled environments are rewiring their brain to respond more effectively to those demands. This rewiring, from repeated exposures, helps boost BDNF levels and in turn keeps the prefrontal cortex sharp and dials down the amygdala’s tendency to overreact.

This kind of biological tuning is what scientists call cognitive reserve and allostasis – the process the body uses to make changes in response to stress or environmental demands to remain stable. It helps the brain and body be flexible, not fragile.

Importantly, this adaptation isn’t exclusive to elite athletes. Studies on adults of all ages show that regular physical activity – particularly exercises that challenge both body and mind – can raise BDNF levels, improve the brain’s ability to adapt and respond to new challenges, and reduce stress reactivity.

Programs that combine aerobic movement with coordination tasks, such as dancing, complex drills or even fast-paced walking while problem-solving have been shown to preserve skills such as focus, planning, impulse control and emotional regulation over time.

After an intense training session or a match, you will often see athletes hopping on a bike or spending some time in the pool. These low-impact, gentle movements, known as active recovery, help tone down the nervous system gradually.

Outside of active recovery, sleep is where the real reset and repair happen. Sleep aids in learning and strengthens the neural connections challenged during training and competition.

Over time, this convergence creates a trainable loop between the brain and body that is better equipped to adapt, recover and perform.

Lessons beyond sport

While the spotlight may shine on sporting arenas, you don’t need to be a pro athlete to train these same skills.

The ability to perform under pressure is a result of continuing adaptation. Whether you’re navigating a career pivot, caring for family members, or simply striving to stay mentally sharp as the world changes, the principles are the same: Expose yourself to challenges, regulate stress and recover deliberately.

While speed, agility and power may decline with age, some sport-specific skills such as anticipation, decision-making and strategic awareness actually improve. Athletes with years of experience develop faster mental models of how a play will unfold, which allows them to make better and faster choices with minimal effort. This efficiency is a result of years of reinforcing neural circuits that doesn’t immediately vanish with age. This is one reason experienced athletes often excel even if they are well past their physical prime.

Physical activity, especially dynamic and coordinated movement, boosts the brain’s capacity to adapt. So does learning new skills, practicing mindfulness and even rehearsing performance under pressure. In daily life, this might be a surgeon practicing a critical procedure in simulation, a teacher preparing for a tricky parent meeting, or a speaker practicing a high-stakes presentation to stay calm and composed when it counts. These aren’t elite rituals – they’re accessible strategies for building resilience, motor efficiency and emotional control.

Humans are built to adapt – with the right strategies, you can sustain excellence at any stage of life.The Conversation

About the Author:

Fiddy Davis Jaihind Jothikaran, Associate Professor of Kinesiology, Hope College

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Markets remain cautious due to geopolitics and ahead of the annual Jackson Hole symposium

By JustMarkets 

On Monday, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.08%, and the S&P 500 (US500) dropped by 0.01%. The technology-focused Nasdaq (US100) closed slightly higher, up 0.01%. US equities showed mixed performance amid growing geopolitical concerns. European leaders and the President of Ukraine met with US President Trump in Washington to discuss potential terms for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. The outcome could have significant macroeconomic consequences for tariffs and oil prices, and it could also profoundly affect European security.

European stock markets saw mixed movement on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) declined by 0.18%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) was down by 0.50%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) fell by 0.17%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.21%.

European equities closed slightly lower overall as markets avoided risky assets in anticipation of a week of events that could shift the geopolitical landscape and the global rate outlook. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may offer guidance on the interest rate outlook at the Jackson Hole symposium, as softer labor market data has strengthened the position of dissenting voices within the FOMC. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and European leaders were scheduled to meet with US President Trump in Washington to discuss a potential peace agreement.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 1% to reach $63.4 a barrel on Monday following the Washington talks between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which took place after an inconclusive US-Russia summit in Alaska last Friday. Investors are closely monitoring the potential impact of the talks on global oil supply, including possible changes in sanctions or moves toward reconciliation. Concerns over energy flows were reignited after White House advisor Peter Navarro criticized India’s purchases of Russian oil.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.77%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 0.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.37%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed with a positive result of 0.23%.

On Tuesday, the New Zealand dollar fluctuated around the $0.593 mark, staying in a narrow range as traders awaited the RBNZ’s rate decision. Markets have already priced in a potential 25 basis point rate cut to 3%, which would extend the current easing cycle to 250 basis points. Supporting a further easing is a 0.6% quarter-over-quarter rise in producer prices in Q2, which fell short of the 1% growth expected and was down from a 2.1% increase in Q1. Analysts, however, note that policy settings are close to neutral, and the effects of previous cuts are still working their way through the economy.

The offshore yuan held near 7.19 per dollar on Tuesday, trading within a tight range as the market’s focus shifted to the US Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium later this week for clues on policy direction and potential impacts on global currencies. Markets were watching the dollar amid expectations of a Fed pivot, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September now at 84%, down from 98% last week following stronger US wholesale and retail trade data, which tempered hopes for a more significant move. In China, markets are now awaiting this week’s loan prime rate decision, with expectations leaning toward the rate remaining unchanged.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Australian Consumer Sentiment Index rose by 5.7% in August 2025 to 98.5, its highest level since February 2022. Sentiment was boosted by the Reserve Bank’s 75 basis point rate cut since January and a more optimistic policy tone. The head of Australian macro expectations said that a long period of consumer pessimism may be ending, though additional easing might be needed to maintain momentum. However, he noted that policymakers are not in urgent need of further cuts.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,449.16 −0.64 (−0.01%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,912.19 −33.93 (−0.08%)

DAX (DE40) 24,314.77 −44.53 (−0.18%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,157.74 +18.84 (+0.21%)

USD Index 98.17 +0.32 (+0.33%)

News feed for: 2025.08.19

  • Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Building Permits (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

US, European, and Asian markets show mixed results amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty

By JustMarkets

On Friday, the US stocks closed with mixed results as investors analyzed economic data, corporate news, and geopolitical developments. The Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.08% on Friday, bringing its weekly gain to 1.72%. The S&P 500 (US500) declined by 0.29% (+0.94% for the week), and the technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) fell by 0.51% (+0.35% for the week). Retail sales for July grew by 0.5%, meeting expectations, but the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 58.6 from 61.7, as inflation concerns rose. Markets also remained cautious ahead of President Trump’s meeting with President Putin, with his plan to impose new tariffs on steel and semiconductors adding to trade uncertainty.

Bitcoin fell to around $115,000 as profit-taking and waning expectations for US rate cuts weighed on sentiment. Higher-than-expected US producer inflation and retail sales data reduced the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve policy easing, pressuring risk assets. Further headwinds included statements from the US Treasury on strategic reserves, which heightened concerns about liquidity tightening, and a change in leadership at key financial market bodies, which increased policy uncertainty and risk aversion.

European stock markets traded without a clear direction on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.08% (+0.63% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.67% (+2.05% for the week), the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) rose by 0.47% (+4.72% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) fell by 0.42% (+0.47% for the week). In Europe, investors focused on a key meeting in Washington between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, aimed at advancing a peace agreement with Russia. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte were also expected to attend. Trump stated that following Friday’s talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he would press Zelenskyy for a swift resolution. While these discussions did not lead to a ceasefire breakthrough, Putin agreed to the US and Europe providing reliable security guarantees to Ukraine as part of a potential deal.

On Monday, WTI crude oil prices rose to $63 per barrel after an early-session drop, as markets focused on the Washington meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy aimed at advancing a peace agreement with Russia. Trump stated he would pressure Zelenskyy to accept a fast resolution after his Friday talks with President Putin, which centered on Moscow’s demand for Ukraine to cede territory. Trump also said he would not urgently impose sanctions on Russia and countries buying its oil, softening his stance from their earlier summit in Alaska. Oil prices have fallen more than 10% this month, also pressured by concerns about the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs and rising OPEC+ supply.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 5.07%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 1.94%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.30%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive return of 1.38%.

In its quarterly report, the People’s Bank of China confirmed its commitment to “carefully” implement a “moderately loose” monetary policy, with an emphasis on targeted support for the economy. This pledge came amid signs of slowing momentum in July, as domestic efforts to curb overcapacity and higher US tariffs weighed on growth.

The Australian dollar rose to $0.651 on Monday, as domestic economic data saw a relatively quiet week. Investor focus now shifts to this week’s scheduled releases of the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index, Consumer Inflation Expectations, flash PMI, and speeches from RBA officials. In terms of monetary policy, investors are increasingly anticipating further RBA easing before the year’s end. While no immediate policy changes are expected, traders are currently pricing in the possibility of an additional 50 basis point rate cut by November.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,449.80 −18.74 (−0.29%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,946.12 +34.86 (+0.08%)

DAX (DE40) 24,359.30 −18.20 (−0.08%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,138.90 −38.34 (−0.42%)

USD Index 97.78 −0.07 (−0.07%)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

US Administration seeks to acquire a stake in Intel. Natural Gas prices drop to a 9-month low

By JustMarkets

At the close on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.02%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.03%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed down 0.07%. Higher-than-expected wholesale inflation data dampened optimism for a significant Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The July Producer Price Index surged 0.9% month-over-month, the biggest increase in three years, and was up 3.3% year-over-year, which was significantly higher than the 0.2% expectations. Despite the inflation surprise, markets were still pricing in an 85-91% probability of a September rate cut, though expectations for a 50-basis-point change disappeared.

The Trump administration is in talks with Intel about a potential US government acquisition of a stake in the struggling chipmaker. The talks followed a meeting this week between President Donald Trump and Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan, which came just days after Trump publicly demanded that Tan resign over his investments in Chinese technology companies, some of which are linked to the Chinese military. Details on the size and price of the stake are still being negotiated. A deal could provide Intel with fresh capital to support its long-term turnaround efforts, as the former chipmaking leader has lost its dominant position in recent years. On Thursday, Intel stock rose by 7.4%.

The Mexican peso weakened to 18.8 per USD, near the month-low of 18.88 recorded earlier this month, amid a stronger US dollar combined with the Bank of Mexico’s recent policy easing and renewed tariff pressures. The sharp jump in US producer prices in July, the most significant in three years, reduced bets on an early Fed rate cut, which supported the dollar. Domestically, Banxico slowed its pace of easing but still cut rates by 25 basis points to 7.75% on August 7 in a split decision that acknowledged weak economic activity, currency volatility, and global trade risks. The move reduced the policy premium that had supported the peso and signaled that further small cuts could follow if disinflation continues.

European equity markets rallied strongly yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.79%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.84%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gained 1.24%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.13%. Market sentiment was supported by favorable trade news and cautious optimism about an upcoming Trump-Putin summit, where a possible resolution to the situation in Ukraine is expected to be discussed. A European Commission spokesperson said today that it had received a “new text” from the US with proposals for a joint declaration on tariffs, which is expected to follow the main political agreement. Leading the gains were Rheinmetall (+2.8%), Airbus (+2.3%), and Allianz (+2.1%). Banks also showed solid growth, with Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank adding 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively.

WTI crude oil prices jumped 2.1% to close at $64 per barrel on Thursday, reaching a one-week high and snapping a two-day losing streak. The rise was driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations that a US interest rate cut next month could stimulate demand. Prices rose after President Trump warned of “serious consequences” if negotiations with Russian President Putin on Ukraine fail, adding a risk premium given Russia’s status as the world’s second-largest oil producer.

The US natural gas prices fell by 1.5% to $2.79/MMBtu, their lowest level since November 2024, after the EIA reported a significant increase in storage inventories. Utilities injected 56 billion cubic feet for the week ending August 8, bringing total storage to 3.186 trillion cubic feet, which is 6.6% above the five-year average and slightly higher than the expected 53 billion cubic feet increase.

Asian markets traded with mixed results yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.45%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.70%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped 0.37%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.53%. Hong Kong stocks fell by 1.3% in early trading on Friday, extending losses for a second session, as most sectors declined, led by financials, technology, and consumer stocks. Sentiment weakened after July data from China showed that industrial production and retail sales growth missed expectations, highlighting slowing economic growth amid persistent external risks, weather-related disasters, and weak domestic demand. The surveyed unemployment rate also rose to a four-month high of 5.2%. Nevertheless, the Hang Seng is on track for its second consecutive weekly gain, currently up more than 1%, helped by the extension of the 90-day US-China trade truce this week.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,468.54 +1.96 (+0.03%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,911.26 −11.01 (−0.02%)

DAX (DE40) 24,377.50 +191.91 (+0.79%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,177.24 +12.01 (+0.13%)

USD Index 98.19 +0.35 (+0.36%)

News feed for: 2025.08.15

  • Japan GDP (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Week Ahead: US30 faces Jackson Hole & retail earnings showdown

By ForexTime 

  • US30 ↑ 6% year-to-date, futures pointing to fresh ATH
  • Home Depot + Walmart = 7.3% of US30 weight 
  • Jackson Hole Symposium + US data could trigger more volatility
  • Technical levels: 45,500, 45,000 & 44,000  

A cocktail of high-risk events may serve up fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead.

All eyes will be on the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, key data and earnings from the largest retail companies in the United States:

Monday, 18th August 

  • CAD: Canada housing starts
  • JP225: Japan tertiary industry index
  • SG20: Singapore trade

Tuesday, 19th August 

  • AUD: Australia consumer confidence
  • CAD: Canada CPI
  • US30: Home Depot earnings

Wednesday, 20th August 

  • CN50: China loan prime rates
  • EUR: Eurozone CPI
  • JP225: Japan trade, machinery orders
  • NZD: New Zealand rate decision
  • GBP: UK CPI
  • USDInd:  US FOMC meeting minutes, Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Thursday, 21st August 

  • EU50: Eurozone HCOB manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence
  • GER40: Germany HCOB manufacturing PMI
  • JPY: Japan S&P Global manufacturing PMI
  • UK100: UK S&P Global manufacturing PMI
  • US30: US initial jobless claims, Conference Board leading index, existing home sales, S&P Global manufacturing PMI, Walmart earnings.

Friday, 22nd August 

  • CAD: Canada retail sales
  • GER40: Germany GDP
  • JPY: Japan CPI
  • GBP: UK retail sales
  • US30: Fed Chair Powell speech at Jackson Hole

FXTM’s US30 is up almost 6% year-to-date, with futures pointing to a fresh all-time high when US markets open this afternoon.

Imagen
us30 w1w

Note: FXTM’s US30 tracks the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average index.

US equities appear to be recovering from the inflation-induced selloff after US PPI data accelerated in July by the most in three years. Still, traders are pricing in a 93% probability of a Fed cut by September.

 

Here are 3 factors that may rock the US30:

 

1) Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 

This is an annual event organized by the Kansas City Fed in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and will be held from August 21st – August 23rd.

Anything discussed during the symposium could trigger market volatility, especially if it has to do with monetary policy. The spotlight shines on Jerome Powell on Friday amid repeated calls from President Donald Trump to cut interest rates. 

  • Should Powell strike a dovish note and signal that the Fed will cut rates in September, the US30 could push higher.
  • If Powell expresses concern over inflation risks and sounds more hawkish, this may weigh on the US30 as traders cut back Fed cut bets.

 

2) Home Depot & Walmart earnings

Earnings from two behemoths in the US retail industry could provide key insight into the strength of consumer spending in the face of Trump’s tariffs.

  • Home Depot releases its earnings before US markets open on Tuesday, 19th August, and accounts for 5.5% of the US30 index. 

     

  • Walmart reveals its Q2 earnings before US markets open on Thursday, 21st August, and accounts for 1.4% of the US30 index. 

Ultimately, a positive set of earnings from these retail giants may boost confidence in the US economy – supporting the US30 as risk sentiment jumps. If earnings disappoint, the US30 may dip, but losses could be cushioned by Fed cut bets.

Note: Beyond earnings, watch out for the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, PMIs on Thursday, all of which could influence the US30 index. 

 

3) Technical forces

The US30 has experienced a bullish breakout above resistance at 45,000. 

Prices are trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is venturing close to overbought territory.

  • Should 45,000 prove reliable support regions, prices may venture toward fresh all-time highs at 45,500 and 46,000. 
  • A move back below 45,000 may trigger a selloff back toward 44,400 and 44,000. 
Imagen
US30 - D1O

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

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Where America’s CO2 emissions come from – what you need to know, in charts

By Kenneth J. Davis, Penn State 

Earth’s atmosphere contains carbon dioxide, which is good for life on Earth – in moderation. Plants use CO2 as the source of the carbon they build into leaves and wood via photosynthesis. In combination with water vapor, CO2 insulates the Earth, keeping it from turning into a frozen world. Life as we know it on Earth would not exist without CO2 in the atmosphere.

Since the industrial revolution began, however, humans have been adding more and more carbon dioxide to the Earth’s atmosphere, and it has become a problem.

The atmospheric concentration of CO2 has risen by more than 50% since industries began burning coal and other fossil fuels in the late 1700s, reaching concentrations that haven’t been found in the Earth’s atmosphere in at least a million years. And the concentration continues to rise.

A line chart shows atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations mostly stable for hundreds of years and then rising with the start of the industrial revolution, and accelerating their rise starting in the mid-1900s.
Chart from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, CC BY

Excess CO2 drives global warming

Who cares? Everyone should.

More CO2 in the air means temperatures at the Earth’s surface rise. As temperature rises, the water cycle accelerates, leading to more floods and droughts. Glaciers melt, and warmer ocean water expands, raising sea levels.

We are living with an increasing frequency or intensity of wildfires, heat waves, flooding and hurricanes, all influenced by increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere.

The ocean also absorbs some of that CO2, making the water increasingly acidic, which can harm species crucial to the marine food chain.

Where is this additional CO2 coming from?

The biggest source of additional CO2 is the combustion of fossil fuels – oil, natural gas and coal – to power vehicles, electricity generation and industries. Each of these fuels consists of hydrocarbons built by plants that grew on the Earth over the past few hundred million years.

These plants took CO2 out of the planet’s atmosphere, died, and their biomass was buried in water and sediments.

Today, humans are reversing hundreds of millions of years of carbon accumulation by digging these fuels out of the Earth and burning them to provide energy.

Let’s dig a little deeper.

Where do CO2 emissions come from in the US?

The Environmental Protection Agency has tracked U.S. greenhouse gas emissions for years.

The U.S. emitted 5,053 million metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere in 2022, the last year for which a complete emissions inventory is available. We also emit other greenhouse gases, including methane, from natural gas production and animal agriculture, and nitrous oxide, created when microbes digest nitrogen fertilizer. But carbon dioxide is about 80% of all U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.

Of those 5,053 million metric tons of CO2 emitted by the U.S. in 2022, 93% came from the combustion of fossil fuels.

More specifically: about 35% of the CO2 emissions were from transportation, 30% from the generation of electric power, and 16%, 7% and 5% from on-site consumption of fossil fuels by industrial, residential and commercial buildings, respectively. Electric power generation served industrial, residential and commercial buildings roughly equally.

What fossil fuels are being burned?

Transportation is dominated by petroleum products, or oil – think gasoline and diesel fuel.

Nationwide, power plants consume roughly equal fractions of coal and natural gas. Natural gas use has been increasing and coal decreasing in this sector, with this trend driven by the rapid expansion of the shale gas industry in the U.S.

U.S. forests are removing CO2 from the atmosphere, but not rapidly enough to offset human emissions. U.S. forests removed and stored about 920 million metric tons of CO2 in 2022.

How US CO2 emissions have changed

Emissions from the U.S. peaked around 2005 at 6,217 million metric tons of CO2. Since then, emissions have been decreasing slowly, largely driven by the replacement of coal by natural gas in electricity production.

Some additional notable trends will impact the future:

First, the U.S. economy has become more energy efficient over time, increasing productivity while decreasing emissions.

Second, solar and wind energy generation, while still a modest fraction of total energy production, has grown steadily in recent years and emits essentially no CO2 into the atmosphere. If the nation increasingly relies on renewable energy sources and reduces burning of fossil fuels, it will dramatically reduce its CO2 emissions.

Solar and wind energy became cheaper as a new energy source than natural gas and coal, but the Trump administration is cutting federal support for renewable energy and is doubling down on subsidies for fossil fuels. The growth of data centers is also expected to increase demand for electricity. How the U.S. meets that demand will impact national CO2 emissions in future years.

How US emissions compare globally

The U.S. ranked second in CO2 emissions worldwide in 2022, behind China, which emitted about 12,000 million metric tons of CO2. China’s annual CO2 emissions surpassed U.S. emissions in 2005 or 2006.

Added up over time, however, the U.S. has emitted more CO2 into the atmosphere than any other nation, and we still emit more CO2 per person than most other industrialized nations. Chinese and European emissions are both roughly half of U.S. emissions on a per capita basis.

Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere mix evenly around the globe, so emissions from industrialized nations affect the climate in developing countries that have benefited very little from the energy created by burning fossil fuels.

The takeaway

There have been some promising downward trends in U.S. CO2 emissions and upward trends in renewable energy sources, but political winds and increasing energy demands threaten progress in reducing emissions.

Reducing emissions in all sectors is needed to slow and eventually stop the rise of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The world has the technological means to make large reductions in emissions. CO2 emitted into the atmosphere today lingers in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. The decisions we make today will influence the Earth’s climate for a very long time.The Conversation

About the Author:

Kenneth J. Davis, Professor of Atmospheric and Climate Science, Penn State

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

My research team used 18 years of sea wave records to learn how destructive ‘rogue waves’ form – here’s what we found

By Francesco Fedele, Georgia Institute of Technology 

Rogue waves have captivated the attention of both seafarers and scientists for decades. These are giant, isolated waves that appear suddenly in the open ocean.

These puzzling giants are brief, typically lasting less than a minute before disappearing. They can reach heights of 65 feet (20 meters) or greater and often more than twice the height of surrounding waves. Once a nautical myth, rogue waves have now been observed around the world. Because they’re so tall and powerful, they can pose a danger to ships and offshore structures.

To rethink what rogue waves are and what causes them, I gathered an international team of researchers. Our study, published in Nature Scientific Reports, sheds light on these oceanic giants using the most comprehensive dataset of its kind.

By analyzing 18 years of high-frequency laser measurements from the Ekofisk oil platform in the central North Sea, we reached the surprising conclusion that rogue waves aren’t just freak occurrences. They arise under the natural laws of the sea. They are not mysterious, but somewhat simple.

27,500 sea states

We analyzed nearly 27,500 half-hour wave records, or sea states, collected between 2003 and 2020 in the central North Sea. These records, taken every 30 minutes, describe how elevated the sea surface was compared to the average sea level. They include major storms, such as the Andrea wave event in 2007.

Several structures standing in the sea.
A complex of platforms on the Ekofisk oil field in the North Sea.
BoH/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

Under normal conditions, waves arise from wind blowing over the sea surface. It’s like when you blow over your cup of coffee and form small ripples on the surface. At sea, with enough time and space, those ripples can turn into large waves.

We focused on understanding what causes waves to suddenly go rogue and rise far above their neighboring waves. One proposed theory is based on modulational instability, a phenomenon described by complex mathematical models. I’ve revised these models in the past, as my work suggests that this theory doesn’t fully explain what causes rogue waves in the open ocean.

A diagram showing the height of waves in different sea states, with the tallest reaching about half the height of a large commercial boat.
Sea states record the height of waves and show when some waves rise high above sea level.
U.S. Government Accountability Office

When waves are trapped within a narrow channel, the modulational instability theory describes their rippling movement well. However, it starts to fall apart when you look at the real ocean. In open environments such as the North Sea, waves are free to propagate from multiple directions.

To understand the difference, imagine a crowd of spectators leaving a stadium after a football game. If the exit is a long, narrow hallway with tall walls, people are forced to move in a single direction. Those at the back push forward, and some may even climb over others, piling up between the confining walls. This catastrophic pileup would resemble a rogue wave, caused by their confinement.

In contrast, if the stadium’s exit opens onto a wide field, spectators can disperse freely in all directions. They don’t push on each other, and they avoid pileups.

Similarly, researchers can generate rogue waves in a confined channel in the lab, where they obey modulational instability. But without the confinement of a channel, rogue waves usually won’t follow those physics or form the same way in the open sea.

Our team knew we had to study the open sea directly to figure out what was really going on. The real-world data my team examined from the North Sea doesn’t line up with modulational instability – it tells a different story.

It’s just a bad day at sea

We analyzed the sea state records using statistical techniques to uncover patterns behind these rare events. Our findings show that instead of modulational instability, the extreme waves observed more likely formed through a process called constructive interference.

Constructive interference happens when two or more waves line up and combine into one big wave. This effect is amplified by the natural asymmetry of sea waves – their crests are typically sharper and steeper than their flatter troughs.

Rogue waves form when lots of smaller waves line up and their steeper crests begin to stack, building up into a single, massive wave that briefly rises far above its surroundings. All it takes for a peaceful boat ride to turn into a bad day at sea is a moment when many ordinary waves converge and stack.

These rogue waves rise and fall in less than a minute, following what’s called a quasi-deterministic pattern in space and time. This type of pattern is recognizable and repeatable, but with touches of randomness. In an idealized ocean, that randomness would almost vanish, allowing rogue waves to grow to nearly infinite heights. But it would also take an eternity to witness one of these waves, since so many would have to line up perfectly. Like waiting for Fortuna, the goddess of chance, to roll a trillion dice and have nearly all of them land on the same number.

In the real ocean, nature limits how large a rogue wave can grow thanks to wave breaking. As the wave rises in height and energy, it can’t hold itself beyond a certain point of no return. The tip of the wave spills over and breaks into foam, or whitecap, releasing the excess energy.

The quasi-deterministic pattern behind rogue waves

Rogue waves aren’t limited to the sea. Constructive interference can happen to many types of waves. A general theory called the quasi-determinism of waves, developed by oceanographer Paolo Boccotti, explains how rogue waves form, both in the ocean and in other wave systems.

For example, for turbulent water flowing through a confined channel, a rogue wave manifests in the form of an intense, short-lived spike in vortices – patterns of spinning swirls in the water that momentarily grow larger as they move downstream.

While ocean waves seem unpredictable, Boccotti’s theory shows that extreme waves are not completely random. When a really big wave forms, the waves in the sea around it follow a recognizable pattern formed through constructive interference.

We applied Boccotti’s theory to identify and characterize these patterns in the measured North Sea wave records.

The giant waves observed in these records carry a kind of signature or fingerprint, in the form of a wave group, which can reveal how the rogue wave came to life. Think of a wave group like a small package of waves moving together. They rise, peak and then fade away through constructive interference. Tracking these wave groups allows researchers to understand the bigger picture of a rogue event as it unfolds.

As one example, a powerful storm hit the North Sea on Nov. 24, 2023. A camera at the Ekofisk platform captured a massive 55 foot (17 meter) rogue wave. I applied the theory of quasi-determinism and an AI model to investigate the origin of this extreme wave. My analysis revealed that the rogue event followed these theories – quasi-determinism and constructive interference – and came from multiple smaller waves repeatedly stacking together.

Left: Stereo video footage of a powerful storm in the North Sea on Nov. 24, 2023, recorded at the Ekofisk platform.
Right: The wave group signature of the recorded rogue wave.

Recognizing how rogue waves form can help engineers and designers build safer ships and offshore platforms – and better predict risks.The Conversation

About the Author:

Francesco Fedele, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.