Yet, that doesn’t stop traders and investors from trying to price in what they think is likely to happen in their view.
And if the official outcome doesn’t pan out according to market expectations, that usually triggers major volatility in prices, as positions are swiftly unwound.
With all that in mind, brace for potential surprises out of the OPEC+ and ECB meetings in the coming week, held alongside these major economic data releases and events:
Monday, September 5
JPY: Japan August services and composite PMIs (final)
AUD: Australia August inflation, services and composite PMIs (final)
CNH: China August Caixin services, composite PMIs
EUR: Eurozone July retail sales, August services and composite PMIs (final)
Brent: OPEC+ meeting
GBP: New UK Prime Minister to be announced
US markets closed for Labor Day
Tuesday, September 6
AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision
EUR: Germany July factory orders
Wednesday, September 7
AUD: Australia 2Q GDP
CNH: China August external trade
EUR: Eurozone 2Q GDP (final), Germany July industrial production
GBP: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey to appear before Treasury Committee
CAD: Bank of Canada rate decision
USD: Fed Beige Book, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speech
Apple’s “Far Out” event: latest iPhone and Apple watch release
Thursday, September 8
JPY: Japan 2Q GDP (final)
AUD: Australia July external trade, RBA Governor Philip Lowe speech
EUR: European Central Bank rate decision
USD: US weekly jobless claims
USD: Fed Speak – Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari
US crude: EIA weekly oil inventory report
Friday, September 9
CNH: China August CPI and PPI
CAD: Canada August unemployment
Brent oil has plunged below the psychologically-important $100/bbl mark this week, halving its year-to-date gains down to 28% at the time of writing.
Oil prices have been dragged lower by the risk-off mood across markets, amid concerns that global demand for the commodity is being eroded by the wave of policy tightening around the world.
The lockdown in Chengdu has further dampened the demand outlook, while the greenback’s recent surge also weighed on this dollar-denominated commodity.
In the lead up to the coming week’s OPEC+ meeting, the alliance’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, had floated the idea of triggering a supply cut, which would be in stark contrast to the series of gradual output hikes as OPEC+ restored supplies that were shuttered since the pandemic.
Markets are mostly expecting OPEC+ to keep its production levels steady come Monday.
Should OPEC+ indeed tighten the oil taps, such a surprisingly swift pivot may trigger a knee-jerk surge in Brent prices, although the move is likelier to shore up support for oil prices around the $100/bbl mark.
ECB to join “supersized” rate hike club?
The European Central Bank (ECB) is also due to make its next rate decision on Thursday.
With the headline CPI climbing to a new record, registering a 9.1% year-on-year growth in August, there clearly is a case for the ECB to step up its rate-hiking game.
At the time of writing, markets are pricing in an 86% chance that the ECB will trigger a “supersized” 75-basis point hike next week.
That would be larger than July’s 50bps hike, and also three times bigger than the traditional 25bps rate adjustments per policy meeting adopted by major central bankers.
While a 75bps ECB hike may help shore up immediate support for the euro, the shared currency remains weighed down by the souring outlook for the Eurozone.
Amid an energy crisis that’s at risk of worsening, more of such larger-than-usual rate hikes would only ramp up the risk of a recession for the Eurozone economy.
However, should the ECB surprise markets by triggering a relatively-dovish 50bps hike, that could open the 0.99 floor below EURUSD.
Overall, markets remain bearish on the euro’s prospects, with markets predicting a greater-than-even chance (51.3%) that EURUSD could fall to as low as 0.986 in the coming week.
At the close of the US stock exchange yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.88% (monthly result-3.93%). S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.78%(-3.97% for the month). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 0.12% (monthly result-0.15%). Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Wednesday that the Fed would need to raise the federal funds rate to just above 4% by early next year and hold it at that level for a while.
The jobs data from the Labor Department will be released on Friday. It is expected to show that the nonfarm payrolls report will show an increase of 300,000 as July saw an increase of 528,000. Another strong report is likely to further reinforce expectations that the Fed will continue its excessive rate hikes after three consecutive 75 basis point hikes.
Canadian GDP for the second quarter showed that the economy grew by 3.3% annually versus an expected 4.4%. The inflation component was also 3.3% versus expected 3.1%.
European stocks were mostly down on Wednesday. German DAX (DE30) fell yesterday by 0.97% (monthly result – 4.78%), French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 1.37% (monthly result- 4.84%), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.17% (monthly result -2.46%), British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed the day with negative 1.05% (monthly result -1.74%).
Inflation in the Eurozone reached 9.1% annually (the forecast was9.0%, the previous month -8.9%). In Italy, inflation hit a 37-year high of 8.4%. Consumer prices continue to rise due to a surge in energy prices. In contrast to the US, Europe has not yet been able to cope with this problem. As a result, ECB policymakers have started talking about a possible ECB rate hike of 0.75% at the September 8 meeting. Nevertheless, after August’s inflation data came as no surprise, the ECB may opt for another 50 basis point increase
According to Fitch Ratings, global inflation continued to rise in the second quarter of 2022, even though the quarter began at already significantly higher interest rates. The monthly data shows that the pressure continues to intensify in the third quarter of 2022.
In the second quarter of 2022, France’s GDP grew by 0.5% QoQ after negative 0.2% in the first quarter of 2022.
Britons are preparing for a recession, and consumers are doing everything they can to save money. With rising inflationary pressures, businesses will undoubtedly also tightly control spending and profit margins where possible., Thus,a wave of layoffs and rising unemployment may also join the energy crisis. But there is one positive factor – the cost-of-living crisis and the rising cost of credit have put the brakes on British house prices as the demand has fallen sharply.
“I don’t remember 1943 German tourists traveling, for example to Britain or other countries of the world for leisure purposes,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said yesterday. The EU countries are actively discussing the closure of tourist visas for Russians.
Also, yesterday the EU decided not to recognize Russian passports issued in the seized Ukrainian territories.
Oil prices continued to fall on Wednesday amid investor fears that the global economy may slow down further due to renewed restrictions in China. There are fears that demand will collapse as interest rates rise and inflation fears engulf global economies. The Joint Technical Committee of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, collectively called OPEC+, said it now sees a surplus of 900,000 BPD of oil this year, 100,000 BPD more than predicted a month earlier. Some OPEC+ members are calling for production cuts to stop oil prices from falling. The group’s next meeting is on September 5.
Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 0.34% (-0.65% for the month), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.03% (-1.05% for the month), and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed at 0.16% (-1.97% for the month).
S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,955.00 −31.16 (−0.78%)
Dow Jones (US30) 31,510.43 −280.44 (−0.88%)
DAX (DE40) 12,834.96 +126.18 (+0.97%)
FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,284.15−77.48 (−1.05%)
USD Index 108.69 −0.09 (−0.08%)
Important events for today:
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Spanish Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
– Italian Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+3);
– French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Building Permits (m/m) at 5:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
Major Wall Street indices fell on Tuesday as a surge in US job openings pointed to a strong labor market, adding to concerns about the Federal Reserve’s aggressive approach to lowering inflation. At the stock market’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.96%, and the S&P 500 (US500) fell by 1.10%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 1.12% yesterday. Traders raised their rates for the third straight 75 basis point increase in September to 76.5% from 70%. All investors are now focused on the Nonfarm Payroll data for August, which will be released on Friday.
European stocks were mostly down on Tuesday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.53% yesterday, French CAC 40 (FR40) decreased by 0.19%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.12%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) was by 0.88% lower.
Inflation in Germany in August rose to 7.9% in annual terms, returning to the historical maximum recorded in May, which is the highest level in almost 50 years. Judging by the regional components of inflation, the biggest contributors to the rise in consumer prices come from rising gas and electricity prices, food prices, and higher prices for vacation tours. For the ECB, an increase in overall inflation in Germany will further fuel an internal debate about a more aggressive interest rate hike at the next meeting.
Carrefour’s CEO said French consumers are abandoning fish, buying cheaper meat, and rejecting organic products to save money on purchases. All the fault of high inflation, forcing consumers to save on food. Inflation has risen to record levels in major economies over the past year because of tight supply chains after COVID-19 and, more recently, soaring energy prices after Russia invaded Ukraine in February. France has shifted the cost of high inflation off consumers more aggressively than other eurozone countries, curbing gas and electricity prices and boosting revenues by raising wages for civil servants and pensioners, as well as through subsidies for the poor.
In Switzerland, the KOF economic barometer fell by 4.0 points in August and now stands at 86.5. This is well below the long-term average. Accordingly, the outlook for the Swiss economy in the near future seems less encouraging. The decline is primarily due to personal consumption, but negative signals come from the manufacturing and construction sectors.
Germany proposes to suspend the visa facilitation agreement with Russia. The Netherlands favors a complete ban on tourist visas for Russians.
Iran and the United States have reached an agreement on a nuclear deal, and it will be officially announced in the next two to three weeks, a former IAEA official told Iran International. The details of the agreement, as well as the IAEA official’s identity, are unknown, but the news triggered a wave of sales in the oil market. Oil fell by $6 yesterday. Analysts believe that with inflation approaching double-digit territory in many of the world’s biggest economies, that could prompt the US and European central banks to resort to more aggressive interest rate hikes, which could slow economic growth and affect fuel demand. Last week, Saudi Arabia raised the possibility of OPEC+ production cuts, which sources said could coincide with a resumption of supply from Iran if it closes a nuclear deal with the West. With most producers already operating at or above full capacity and signs that the global economy may be slowing, some supply cuts are becoming more likely in the coming months.
Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.14%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.37%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed at plus by 0.47%.
The Taiwanese military fired warning shots at a Chinese drone that flew over an island controlled by Taiwan. The situation in the region remains tense.
On Tuesday, August 30, several major Chinese cities tightened restrictions due to a new outbreak of COVID-19. Authorities have redoubled efforts to contain the coronavirus ahead of a key meeting of the ruling Communist Party this year. Nearly 4 million people in Hebei province, which surrounds Beijing, have been ordered to stay home for the rest of the week.
S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,986.16 −44.45 (−1.10%)
Dow Jones (US30) 31,790.87 −308.12 (−0.96%)
DAX (DE40) 12,961.14 +68.15 (+0.53%)
FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,361.63 −65.68 (−0.88%)
USD Index 108.78 −0.06 (−0.06%)
Important events for today:
– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+3);
– China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
– French GDP (q/q) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
The decline in technology, which began on Friday, continued into the new trading week under pressure from rising Treasury bond yields. The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.57% at Monday’s close of the stock market. The S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.67%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 1.63% yesterday. The Jackson Hole document warns that without fiscal tightening, there will be a vicious cycle of rising nominal interest rates, inflation, economic stagnation, and debt.
On the other hand, high levels of federal debt and continued increases in government spending will contribute to the public perception that inflation will remain high. But according to analysts, because high inflation was driven by fiscal spending in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, simply raising interest rates will not be enough to lower inflation. Thus, the Fed can reduce inflation only when the national debt is successfully stabilized with credible future budget plans. New research shows that without limits on budget spending, raising rates will make the cost of debt more expensive and raise inflation expectations even more.
European stocks fell on Monday, with technology stocks leading the decline. At the same time, bond yields rose as central bank comments reinforced fears of aggressive measures to curb inflation amid rising recession risks. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.61% yesterday, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.83%, Spain’s IBEX 35 Index (ES35) lost 0.92%, Britain’s FTSE 100 (UK100) did not trade on Monday due to the bank holiday.
German 10-year bond yields rose by 10 bps to a two-month high. European Central Bank (ECB) governor Isabel Schnabel warned over the weekend that central banks must act decisively to fight inflation, even if it drags the economy into recession. Other representatives of the governing council, François Villeroy and politician Martins Kazaks, also signaled another significant rate hike in September. ECB chief economist Lane, considered one of the most dovish on the committee, also called for higher rates, but perhaps at a less aggressive pace. Currently, markets are counting on a 76% chance that the ECB will raise rates by 75 basis points in September, up from 24% last week.
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. expects the UK economy to slip into recession later this year, with the risk of a deep recession amid a surge in energy prices. The UK gross domestic product is expected to fall about 1% by mid-2023.
The EU will hold an emergency meeting of energy ministers on September 9 to discuss rising energy prices.
Crude oil prices jumped about 4% on Monday as expectations of production cuts by the expanded OPEC+ cartel grow by the day. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia, and its ten oil-producing partners will meet on September 5. Nearly every country in the alliance, except Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, now produces less than its quota. Clearly, OPEC+ countries are getting greedy and trying to push oil prices back to this year’s highs.
Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.79%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.73%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed at 0.29%.
The Chinese yuan fell to its lowest level in two years as a hawkish Fed signaled further rate hikes. The Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) are the only two major central banks that are not on a tightening cycle. Because of this, the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan are under pressure.
S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,030.61 −27.05 (−0.67%)
Dow Jones (US30) 32,098.99 −184.41 (−3.03%)
DAX (DE40) 12,892.99 −78.48 (−0.61%)
FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,427.31 −52.43 (−0.70%)
USD Index 108.79 −0.02 (−0.02%)
Important events for today:
– Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
Russian forces occupy Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station in the Ukrainian city of Enerhodar. Russian and Ukrainian forces are fighting nearby, and shelling has damaged power and communication lines to the plant, prompting fears for the plant’s safety and evoking painful memories in a country still scarred by the world’s worst nuclear accident, at Chernobyl in 1986.
In addition, Russian authorities have developed plans to disconnect the plant from Ukraine’s power grid – in the event of damage to the plant, according to the Russians, as a prelude to switching the plant to the grid in Russian-occupied territory, according to the Ukrainians. Disconnecting the plant from the grid is a risky operation.
The Conversation asked Najmedin Meshkati, a professor and nuclear safety expert at the University of Southern California, to explain the risks of warfare taking place in and around nuclear power plants.
How safe was the Zaporizhzhia power plant before the Russian attack?
The facility at Zaporizhzhia is the largest nuclear plant in Europe and one of the largest in the world. It has six pressurized water reactors, which use water to both sustain the fission reaction and cool the reactor. These differ from the RBMK reactors at Chernobyl, which used graphite instead of water to sustain the fission reaction. RBMK reactors are not seen as very safe, and there are only eight remaining in use in the world, all in Russia.
The reactors at Zaporizhzhia are of moderately good design, and the plant has a decent safety record, with a good operating background.
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant uses pressurized water reactors.
Ukrainian authorities tried to keep the war away from the site by asking Russia to observe a 30-kilometer (nearly 19-mile) safety buffer. But Russian troops surrounded the facility and seized it in March.
What are the risks to a nuclear plant in a conflict zone?
Nuclear power plants are built for peacetime operations, not wars.
The worst thing that could happen is if a site is deliberately or accidentally shelled. If a shell hit the plant’s spent fuel pool – which contains the still-radioactive spent fuel – or if fire spread to the spent fuel pool, it could release radiation. This spent fuel pool isn’t in the containment building, and as such is more vulnerable.
Containment buildings, which house nuclear reactors, are also not protected against deliberate shelling. They are built to withstand a minor internal explosion of, say, a pressurized water pipe. But they are not designed to withstand a huge explosion.
As to the reactors in the containment building, it depends on the weapons being used. The worst-case scenario is that a bunker-buster missile breaches the containment dome – consisting of a thick shell of reinforced concrete on top of the reactor – and explodes. That would badly damage the nuclear reactor and release radiation into the atmosphere, which would make it difficult to send in first responders to contain any resulting fire. It could be another Chernobyl.
What are the concerns going forward?
The safety problems I see are twofold:
1) Human error
The workers at the facility are working under incredible stress, reportedly at gunpoint. Stress increases the chance of error and poor performance.
There is a human element in running a nuclear power plant – operators are the first and last layers of defense for the facility and the public. They are the first people to detect any anomaly and to stop any incident. Or if there’s an accident, they will be the first to heroically try to contain it.
2) Power failure
The second problem is that the nuclear plant needs constant electricity, and that is harder to maintain in wartime.
Even if you shut down the reactors, the plant will need off-site power to run the huge cooling system to remove the residual heat in the reactor and bring it to what is called a cold shutdown. Water circulation is always needed to make sure the spent fuel doesn’t overheat.
Spent fuel pools also need constant water circulation to keep them cool, and they need cooling for several years before they can be put in dry casks. One of the problems in the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan was the emergency generators intended to replace lost off-site power got inundated with water and failed. In situations like that, you get “station blackout” – and that is one of the worst things that could happen. It means no electricity to run the cooling system.
In that circumstance, the spent fuel overheats and its zirconium cladding can create hydrogen bubbles. If you can’t vent these bubbles, they will explode, spreading radiation.
If there is a loss of outside power, operators will have to rely on emergency generators. But emergency generators are huge machines – finicky, unreliable gas guzzlers. And you still need cooling waters for the generators themselves.
My biggest worry is that Ukraine suffers from a sustained power grid failure. The likelihood of this increases during a conflict because power line pylons may come down under shelling, or gas power plants might get damaged and cease to operate. And though Ukrainian intelligence services claim that the Russians intend to stockpile diesel fuel to keep these emergency generators going, it is unlikely that Russian troops will have excess fuel given their need to fuel their own vehicles.
How else does a war affect the safety of nuclear plants?
One of the overarching concerns about the effects of war on nuclear plants is that war degrades safety culture, which is crucial in running a plant. I believe that safety culture is analogous to the human body’s immune system, which protects against pathogens and diseases. Safety culture is pervasive and has a widespread impact. “It can affect all elements in a system for good or ill,” according topsychologist James Reason.
The tragic situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant violates every universally accepted tenet of healthy nuclear safety culture, especially the maintenance of an environment where personnel can raise safety concerns.
War adversely affects safety culture in a number of ways. Operators are stressed and fatigued and may be scared to death to speak out if something is going wrong. Then there is the maintenance of a plant, which may be compromised by lack of staff or unavailability of spare parts.
Governance, regulation and oversight – all crucial for the safe running of a nuclear industry – are also disrupted, as is local infrastructure, such as the capability of local firefighters. In war, everything is harder.
So what can be done to better protect Ukraine’s nuclear power plants?
I believe an optimal though not ideal solution is to bring the two operating reactors to a cold shutdown before any further loss of off-site power and risk of station blackout, store more fuel for emergency diesel generators at different locations at the plant site, and keep only a skeleton caretaker staff to look after the spent fuel pools.
Admittedly, this is only a stopgap measure. In parallel with the International Atomic Energy Agency’s effort under the leadership of its Director, General Rafael Mariano Grossi, I believe that the U.N. Security Council should immediately empower a special commission to mediate between the warring parties. It could be modeled after the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission in 2000, and appoint a prominent, senior international statesman as its head.
I believe the person should be of the caliber and in the mold of the legendary former director general of the IAEA, Hans Blix of Sweden. Blix led the agency at the time of the Chernobyl accident in 1986 and commands respect in today’s Russia and Ukraine.
War, in my opinion, is the worst enemy of nuclear safety. This is an unprecedented and volatile situation. Only through active, pragmatic engineering and nuclear diplomacy can an amenable and lasting solution to this vexing problem be found.
This is an updated version of an article originally published on March 4, 2022.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled at a speech in Jackson Hole that the US Сentral Bank will likely continue to raise interest rates and leave them elevated for a while to suppress inflation, and rejected any idea that the Fed would change course soon. Powell added that lowering inflation to the 2% target is the Сentral Bank’s top priority right now, even though consumers and businesses will feel the economic pain. He reiterated that another unusually large increase in the benchmark lending rate might be appropriate when officials meet next month. Amid these statements, the US stock indices saw a sell-off on Friday. The Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 3.03% (-3.88% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) fell by 3.37% (-3.28% for the week) at Friday’s close of the stock market. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 3.94% (-3.05% for the week).
Two-year Treasury yields rose on Powell’s statements to 3.44%. Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at MBB Capital Partners, said the strong tone of Powell’s speech points to another big 75 basis point rate hike next month.
In a new report on factors driving Canada’s provincial economies from 2022 to 2024, the nonprofit think tank says growth will come mainly from oil and gas. With regions like Saskatchewan and Alberta leading the way in that sector.
Equity markets in Europe fell mostly on Friday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 2.26% (-3.71% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 1.68% (-2.71% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 1.51% (-2.75% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) was 0.70% down (-1.63% for the week).
Isabel Schnabel of the European Central Bank’s Executive Board urged policymakers to act decisively to bring stubbornly high inflation back under control and warned against backing down at the first sign that price pressures might be easing. Another ECB Governing Council spokesman, François Villrois de Galleau, said during the same discussion that policymakers must be determined to fight record inflation so as not to be forced to resort to “unnecessarily harsh” interest rate changes later on. The ECB raised rates by 50 basis points in July, and a similar move is scheduled for September 8, but some policymakers have begun talking about even more hikes as the outlook for inflation worsens.
The UK inflation hit a 40-year high of 10.1% year-over-year last month, and Citigroup Inc. said it could surpass 18% in January. According to consulting firm Baringa Partners, more than half of British households are at risk of energy poverty this winter because of soaring bills. In theory, higher rates should lead to a stronger currency. But the opposite is true for the UK right now. Investors believe that further aggressive increases in borrowing costs, necessary to reduce rising prices, will exacerbate Britain’s economic malaise, putting the country in a worse position than the US and the Eurozone.
The spot price of gas in Europe has once again hit a 5-month high. The price of the nearest TTF futures on the ICE Futures exchange reached $3456 per thousand cubic meters in September. The historical maximum for the gas price in Europe was recorded on March 7, 2022, when the April futures price was $3,898 at one point.
According to the Financial Times, EU foreign ministers are set to suspend the visa agreement with Russia as early as this week.
On Friday, OPEC+ states such as Iraq, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan expressed willingness as part of an alliance of 23 oil producers to step in and restore balance to the oil market. The word “balance” is OPEC+’s key phrase for production cuts, a situation OPEC+ considers necessary whenever oil prices are at risk of falling. But the problem with any OPEC+ production cut is that it will raise not only the price of oil but also the price of gasoline, which the Biden administration is trying hard to prevent. Thus the situation in the oil market remains uncertain. On top of that, Russia is selling its oil at a discount of $30 a barrel to Brent in order to keep its economy running under widespread sanctions and to get money for the war with Ukraine, with China and India being the main buyers of Russian oil.
Asian markets traded without a single dynamic last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.04% over the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 3.05% last week, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week down by 0.15%.
In China, the real estate market crisis has flared up, and sales have been falling there for several months. Because of this, developers are becoming cheaper to tear down the new building than to keep it. The authorities support the demolition by offsetting the costs. Already 2/3 of developers have gone bankrupt or are at the stage of bankruptcy. According to Citigroup, by cutting key rates in August, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) may cut banks’ required reserves as early as next month.
In the commodities market, futures on coffee (+12.05%), wheat (+7.63%), corn (+6.23%), Brent oil (+4.01%), WTI oil (+2.8%), and sugar (+2.05%) showed the biggest gains over the week. Futures on gasoline (-5.57%), lumber (-4.85%), platinum (-4.05%), orange juice (-4.04%), and soybeans (-1.61%) showed the biggest drop.
S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,057.66 −141.46 (−3.37%)
Dow Jones (US30) 32,283.40 −1,008.38 (−3.03%)
DAX (DE40) 12,971.47 −300.49 (−2.26%)
FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,427.31 −52.43 (−0.70%)
USD Index 108.84 +0.37 (+0.34%)
Important events for today:
– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Brainard Speaks at 21:15 (GMT+3).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
The US indices rose on Thursday, thanks to support from growth and semiconductor stocks, as investors watched the Federal Reserve’s conference in Jackson Hole to gain insight into the future outlook for monetary policy. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech today that will be analyzed for any indication that the economic slowdown may change the Central Bank’s strategy. The US GDP data showed yesterday that the US economy contracted at a more moderate pace in the second quarter than originally thought, as consumer spending partially cushioned resistance to the sharp slowdown in inventory accumulation, dispelling fears that the recession was continuing. Nobel Prize-winning economist Richard Thaler said the US economy was showing more signs of strength than weakness.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions in the United States, defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity that extends throughout the economy, lasting more than several months, usually manifested in production, employment, and real income.
As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.98%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.41%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 1.67%.
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George said yesterday that it is too early to predict how much the US Central Bank will raise interest rates next month because key inflation and labor market reports are still to come. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also said he has not yet decided whether the Fed should raise interest rates by 50 or 75 basis points at its policy meeting next month. Traders of Fed funds futures contracts estimate a 59% chance that the Fed will raise rates another 75 basis points at its September meeting and a 41% chance of a 50 bps hike.
Graphics chip maker Nvidia Corp forecasts a sharp drop in revenue for the current quarter amid a weakening gaming industry. Analysts believe Nvidia could see further declines in the crypto-mining and data center markets as well.
Equity markets in Europe traded yesterday without a single dynamic. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.39%, French CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.08%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.15%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed on Wednesday at plus 0.11%.
According to July’s ECB monetary policy minutes, most central bank officials agreed to a more aggressive 50 bps rate hike at the next meeting in the context of the recent deterioration in inflation prospects as well as the deteriorating economic conditions in the Eurozone.
Germany’s IFO business climate Index fell to 88.5 points in August from a revised 88.7 points in July. The IFO index is based on a survey of about 9,000 companies in manufacturing, services, trade, and construction. Business confidence in Germany worsened in August as companies became more pessimistic about rising energy prices and the threat of gas shortages.
The situation in the oil market remains uncertain. Oil prices fell yesterday as investors prepare for the possible return of sanctioned Iranian oil exports to global markets and over concerns that rising US interest rates will weaken fuel demand. On the other hand, the prospect that the OPEC+ group of producers may limit oil supplies limits the fall in oil prices.
Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.58%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 3.63%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) added 0.70% yesterday.
S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,199.12 +58.35 (+1.41%)
Dow Jones (US30) 33,291.78 +322.55 (+0.98%)
DAX (DE40) 13,271.96 +51.90 (+0.39%)
FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,479.74 +8.23 (+0.11%)
USD Index 108.44 −0.24 (−0.22%)
Important events for today:
– New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 01:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Jackson Hole Symposium at 16:00 (GMT+3);
– US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
The new movie “Fall” is a survival-thriller about two young women, Becky and Hunter, who are avid rock climbers. To mark the one-year anniversary of Becky’s husband’s death in a climbing accident, they decide to climb an abandoned 2,000-foot TV tower.
But a ladder breaks, and they find themselves stranded atop the rusty steel latticework. Ironically, at the top of the communication tower, the climbers are too high in the air to get a phone signal to call for rescue.
Other recent movies have also featured terrifying communication towers.
Take the 2016 film “Cell,” which is based on a Stephen King novel. In it, a cell tower signal turns normal people into zombies, a literal version of the cliché about the effect mobile phones have on users. The 2018 Indian sci-fi blockbuster “2.0” features a gigantic Kaiju monster – akin to Godzilla or Mothra – made of cellphones. It rises to avenge the deaths of millions of birds supposedly killed by cell tower radiation. (Millions of birds do die every year by crashing into towers, but probably because they become disoriented by their lights, not from the radiation they emit.)
Why are communication towers so scary? Why, in “Fall,” is the steel tower somehow more disturbing than the rocky cliff face where Becky’s husband died?
As anthropologist Shannon Mattern has argued, towers and antennas are visible manifestations of vast invisible networks – mostly wireless or underground – that can be hard for people to wrap their heads around, even as they grow increasingly dependent on them.
They’re a reminder of something that most of us would rather forget: that we’re immersed in an electromagnetic soup of radio waves, walking around every day in what design scholar Anthony Dunne has called “hertzian space.” Those same invisible waves also signal the possibility of ubiquitous surveillance and manipulation.
So a latticework steel tower or a sleek monopole mast with an array of rectangular antenna panels clustered at its top can elicit powerful responses.
On the one hand, there’s denial – you might half-consciously “unsee” them and pretend they’re not there.
On the other hand, they can become a source of paranoia, which sometimes metastasizes into conspiracy theories.
Hidden in plain sight
Cell towers are often designed to hide in plain sight. Some are even disguised as pine trees or palm trees – rather poorly, in most cases. But stealth towers like these aren’t actually meant to pass for the natural objects they imitate.
Like all camouflage, they’re just supposed to distract our attention long enough for us to overlook them. The brown painted “bark” and green plastic “leaves,” or the rows of rectangular antenna panels painted to blend into building façades, are simply prompts to our unseeing – cues to look away. Nothing to see here, they say.
In recent years, 5G antennas have started showing up everywhere, often as unlabeled boxes or cylinders on standalone poles or streetlights.
Known as small-cell networks, these faster and more powerful 5G systems require many more antennas spaced closer together. This greater density has provoked increased fears about potential risks to health and security, along with more paranoid reactions linking cellular radiation to cancer – a link not supported by scientific research. Some people even wrongly blamed 5G for the COVID-19 pandemic.
Some of the extreme reactions against cell towers may be the result of displaced anxiety about the very real risks of everyday technology.
Most of us sense – though we often prefer to forget – that each steel cell tower or sleek 5G box is just the tip of the iceberg. It’s a visible sign of mostly invisible global communication networks, tied to centers of commercial and political power, that are gradually eroding our privacy and autonomy.
During the long seafaring voyages of the 15th and 16th centuries, a period known as the Age of Discovery, sailors reported experiencing visions of sublime foods and verdant fields. The discovery that these were nothing more than hallucinations after months at sea was agonizing. Some sailors wept in longing; others threw themselves overboard.
The cure for these harrowing mirages turned out to be not a concoction of complex chemicals, as once suspected, but rather the simple antidote of lemon juice. These sailors suffered from scurvy, a disease caused by a deficiency of vitamin C, an essential micronutrient that people acquire from eating fruits and vegetables.
Vitamin C is important for the production and release of neurotransmitters, the chemical messengers of the brain. In its absence, brain cells do not communicate effectively with one another, which can lead to hallucinations.
Beyond that, my research is also focused on understanding how food can influence our thoughts, moods and behaviors. While we can’t yet prevent or treat brain conditions with diet, researchers like me are learning a great deal about the role that nutrition plays in the everyday brain processes that make us who we are.
Perhaps not surprisingly, a delicate balance of nutrients is key for brain health: Deficiencies or excesses in vitamins, sugars, fats and amino acids can influence brain and behavior in either negative or positive ways.
As with vitamin C, deficits in other vitamins and minerals can also precipitate nutritional diseases that adversely impact the brain in humans. For example, low dietary levels of vitamin B3/niacin – typically found in meat and fish – cause pellagra, a disease in which people develop dementia.
Niacin is essential to turn food into energy and building blocks, protect the genetic blueprint from environmental damage and control how much of certain gene products are made. In the absence of these critical processes, brain cells, also known as neurons, malfunction and die prematurely, leading to dementia.
In animal models, decreasing or blocking the production of niacin in the brain promotes neuronal damage and cell death. Conversely, enhancing niacin levels has been shown to mitigate the effects of neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s, Huntington’s and Parkinson’s. Observational studies in humans suggest that sufficient levels of niacin may protect against these diseases, but the results are still inconclusive.
Interestingly, niacin deficiency caused by consumption of excessive amounts of alcohol can lead to similar effects as those found with pellagra.
Another example of how a nutrient deficiency affects brain function can be found in the element iodine, which, like niacin, must be acquired from one’s diet. Iodine, which is present in seafood and seaweed, is an essential building block for thyroid hormones – signaling molecules that are important for many aspects of human biology, including development, metabolism, appetite and sleep. Low iodine levels prevent the production of adequate amounts of thyroid hormones, impairing these essential physiological processes.
Not all dietary deficiencies are detrimental to the brain. In fact, studies show that people with drug-resistant epilepsy – a condition in which brain cells fire uncontrollably – can reduce the number of seizures by adopting an ultralow-carbohydrate regimen, known as a ketogenic diet, in which 80% to 90% of calories are obtained from fat.
Carbohydrates are the preferred energy source for the body. When they are not available – either because of fasting or because of a ketogenic diet – cells obtain fuel by breaking down fats into compounds called ketones. Utilization of ketones for energy leads to profound shifts in metabolism and physiology, including the levels of hormones circulating in the body, the amount of neurotransmitters produced by the brain and the types of bacteria living in the gut.
Researchers think that these diet-dependent changes, especially the higher production of brain chemicals that can quiet down neurons and decrease levels of inflammatory molecules, may play a role in the ketogenic diet’s ability to lower the number of seizures. These changes may also explain the benefits of a ketogenic state – either through diet or fasting – on cognitive function and mood.
Some foods can negatively affect your memory and mood.
Sugar, saturated fats and ultraprocessed foods
Excess levels of some nutrients can also have detrimental effects on the brain. In humans and animal models, elevated consumption of refined sugars and saturated fats – a combination commonly found in ultraprocessed foods – promotes eating by desensitizing the brain to the hormonal signals known to regulate satiety.
Interestingly, a diet high in these foods also desensitizes the taste system, making animals and humans perceive food as less sweet. These sensory alterations may affect food choice as well as the reward we get from food. For example, research shows that people’s responses to ice cream in brain areas important for taste and reward are dulled when they eat it every day for two weeks. Some researchers think this decrease in food reward signals may enhance cravings for even more fatty and sugary foods, similar to the way smokers crave cigarettes.
High-fat and processed-food diets are also associated with lower cognitive function and memory in humans and animal models as well as a higher incidence of neurodegenerative diseases. However, researchers still don’t know if these effects are due to these foods or to the weight gain and insulin resistance that develop with long-term consumption of these diets.
Time scales
This brings us to a critical aspect of the effect of diet on the brain: time. Some foods can influence brain function and behavior acutely – such as over hours or days – while others take weeks, months or even years to have an effect. For instance, eating a slice of cake rapidly shifts the fat-burning, ketogenic metabolism of an individual with drug-resistant epilepsy into a carbohydrate-burning metabolism, increasing the risk of seizures. In contrast, it takes weeks of sugar consumption for taste and the brain’s reward pathways to change, and months of vitamin C deficiency to develop scurvy. Finally, when it comes to diseases like Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s, risk is influenced by years of dietary exposures in combination with other genetic or lifestyle factors such as smoking.
In the end, the relationship between food and the brain is a bit like the delicate Goldilocks: We need not too little, not too much but just enough of each nutrient.
At the stock market close yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.18%, while the S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.29%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.41%.
The US durable goods orders were unchanged month-over-month in July. Unfinished US home sales fell in July for the sixth time this year to the lowest level since the pandemic began, extending a sharp decline in the housing market. The number of signed contracts was down 22.5% from a year ago. Rising interest rates always negatively affect the housing market, so things will only worsen in the near future.
Today, traders of Fed funds futures contracts estimate a 61% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 75 basis points at its September meeting. The probability of a 50 basis point hike is 39%.
Equity markets in Europe traded yesterday without a single dynamic. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.20%, French CAC 40 (FR 40) increased by 0.39%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.33%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed on Wednesday down by 0.22%.
The German government is concerned about possible problems with coal supplies for power plants in the fall and winter due to low water levels in the Rhine River and oil supplies in the eastern parts of the country. The price of gas in Europe has exceeded $3100 per 1,000 cubic meters for the first time since early March. Dutch gas prices, the European benchmark, rose again Wednesday as the prospect of an end to supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline kept investors on edge. Russia’s state energy company Gazprom said Friday that Russia would suspend natural gas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream 1 for three days because of unscheduled maintenance.
The Energy Information Administration reported a 3.3 million barrel drop in crude oil inventories for the week through August 19. Also, yesterday it became known that OPEC countries are going to fight with low oil prices, and in case Iranian oil returns to the world market, OPEC countries (in particular Saudi Arabia and Iraq) are ready to cut their production in order not to allow the oil prices to fall significantly.
Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.49%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 1.20%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up by 0.52%.
On Wednesday, Japan’s prime minister said that his country would restart several idle nuclear power plants and study the possibility of developing next-generation reactors. It indicates that Japan (a major energy importer) is looking to bolster its capabilities amid continued uncertainty in global energy markets. Japan is aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050. According to the “ambitious outlook,” the country’s 6th Strategic Energy Plan calls for renewables to account for 36% to 38% of its electricity generation mix in 2030, with nuclear power accounting for 20% to 22%.
Stats NZ data showed a 2.3% drop in seasonally adjusted retail sales in the last quarter in New Zealand. Economists had forecast a 1.7% increase as consumer spending was expected to rebound after the initial Omicron hit, which reduced retail spending by 1% in the year’s first quarter. Analysts believe the drop in retail spending points to a potential recession.
China announced an additional 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion) in stimulus to save the economy from recession. The stimulus measures will include an additional 300 billion yuan, which state banks can invest in infrastructure projects.
S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,140.77 +12.04 (+0.29%)
Dow Jones (US30) 32,969.23 +59.64 (+0.18%)
DAX (DE40) 13,220.06 +25.83 (+0.20%)
FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,471.51 −16.60 (−0.22%)
USD Index 108.61 −0.02 (−0.01%)
Important events for today:
– New Zealand Retail Sales (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Germany GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Germany Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting at 14:30 (GMT+3);
– US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
Article by ForexTime
