Archive for Economics & Fundamentals – Page 14

10 Dec

Silver rises above $60/ounce. Australian dollar holds near three-month high

By JustMarkets 

On Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.38%. The S&P500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.09%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 0.13%. A fresh estimate of US job openings (a rise to 7.67 million) maintained investor focus on labor market signals amid expectations of a likely 25 basis point Fed rate cut this week. Among other movements: Nvidia dropped by 0.3% on reports of potential restrictions on H200 chip purchases in China, and Home Depot declined by 1.3% following more cautious profit expectations for 2026.

The Mexican peso weakened to 18.3 per dollar, pulling back from a one-and-a-half-year high. The currency was pressured by rising US yields and a narrowing yield premium in Mexico, as markets anticipate further Banxico policy easing in 2026. Weaker economic prognoses and expectations of lower real interest rates create additional pressure, limiting capital inflows and increasing the peso’s vulnerability.

European stock markets traded directionally mixed on Tuesday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.49%, the French CAC 40 (FR 40) closed down by 0.69%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.13%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 0.03%.

Silver climbed above $60 per ounce on Tuesday amid expectations of a Fed rate cut and a persistent physical metal deficit. The rally is supported by increased industrial demand from solar energy, electric vehicles, and electronics against limited mining output, leading to outflows from exchange warehouses and inflows into ETFs. However, tougher signals from the Fed or an increase in supply could cap further gains.

WTI continued its decline on Tuesday. Pressure on quotes intensified due to signs of increasing supply: China boosted purchases of Saudi oil after reduced selling prices, and Iraq resumed production at the West Qurna-2 field, adding volume to the market amidst rising US inventories. Additional negative sentiment was generated by estimates from the IEA and OPEC+, indicating a possible supply surplus in 2026. Geopolitical risks continue to support the market, but traders’ attention is also focused on the Fed meeting: the expected rate cut could strengthen demand expectations for oil next year.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.14%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.02%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) dropped by 1.29%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.45%.

The Australian dollar is holding near a three-month high thanks to a hawkish signal from the RBA on monetary policy. Despite a pause in rate changes at the December meeting, RBA Governor Bullock suggested the possibility of a rate hike as early as February if there is no progress in reducing inflation, which sharply strengthened tightening expectations: the market prices the probability of a February hike at approximately 30%, and nearly 100% by May. Rising Australian bond yields boosted capital inflow through the carry trade and supported the Australian currency.

On Wednesday, the offshore yuan held around 7.06 per dollar, as increased consumer inflation softened expectations of further monetary policy support. China’s consumer prices rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November 2025, the highest reading since February 2024. Earlier this week, the Politburo promised to expand domestic demand and support the overall economy in 2026, though it demonstrated a cautious approach to stimulus. Meanwhile, factory gate deflation unexpectedly worsened to 2.2% in November, marking the 38th consecutive month of producer price declines.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,840.51 −6.00 (−0.09%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,560.29 −179.03 (−0.38%)

DAX (DE40) 24,162.65 +116.64 (+0.49%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,642.01 −3.08 (−0.03%)

USD Index 99.23 +0.14% (+0.14%)

News feed for: 2025.12.10

  • China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (HIGH)
  • China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
  • Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – NOK (MED)
  • Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:55 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
  • Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
  • Canada BoC Monetary Policy Statement at 16:45 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
  • Canada BoC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2); – WTI (HIGH)
  • US FOMC Economic Projections at 21:00 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
  • US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
  • US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
  • US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+2). – USD, XAU (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
09 Dec

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its interest rate unchanged as expected. Natural gas prices fell by 7% on Monday

By JustMarkets 

By the end of Monday, the Dow Jones (US30) declined by 0.45%, the S&P500 (US500) fell by 0.35%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.14%. Investors remain cautious ahead of the Fed’s decision on Wednesday: the probability of a 25 bp rate cut is estimated at around 90%, but inflation concerns make markets more restrained about the trajectory of rates in 2026. On the corporate front, deals and rating changes stood out. Warner Bros. Discovery shares rose by 4.4% after a competing offer from Paramount Skydance, while Netflix fell by 3.4%. Tesla dropped 3.4% after a downgrade. Attention also shifted to upcoming reports from Broadcom and Oracle, with Broadcom shares already hitting a record high on news of talks with Microsoft about chip production.

European stock markets traded mixed on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.07%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.08%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.14%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.23%. In Europe, ECB’s Isabel Schnabel stated that she agrees with market expectations that the central bank’s next step could be a rate hike.

WTI crude prices fell more than 2% and traded below $59 per barrel, approaching a monthly low. Prices were pressured by a stronger dollar and weaker global fuel demand expectations amid weakness in the transport and industrial sectors. An additional downside came from EIA data showing US crude inventories rose by 0.57 million barrels, reinforcing signals of oversupply.

The US natural gas prices fell nearly 7% on Monday to $4.9 per MMBtu after strong gains last week, as prognoses of milder weather weakened seasonal demand expectations. Record production of about 109.7 bcf per day and comfortable inventory levels added pressure, indicating no short‑term supply risks.
Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.18%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.87%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.23%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed down 0.12%.

The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.2% to 25,765 points, ending a two‑day rally, pressured by the financial, real estate, and consumer sectors. The market remained cautious amid persistent deflation risks in China and anticipation of key policy signals from the upcoming Politburo meeting and annual economic conference.
The Australian dollar strengthened after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the refinancing rate at 3.60% for the third consecutive time. The regulator noted persistent inflationary pressures and a tight labor market, emphasizing that future steps depend on data. Markets now estimate the probability of a rate hike by May 2026 at about 50/50, while most economists believe the easing cycle has ended.

The New Zealand dollar consolidated near a five‑week high, supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has ended its easing cycle. Although the regulator recently cut the rate by 25 bp, its projections suggest only a 20% chance of another cut in 2026, given easing inflation and improved economic prospects. New RBNZ Governor Anna Breman emphasized the priority of controlling inflation while supporting growth and employment. Markets now expect the next move to be a rate hike, not before late 2026. Additional support for the currency comes from US dollar weakness ahead of the anticipated Fed rate cut.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,846.51 −23.89 (−0.35%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,739.32 −215.67 (−0.45%)

DAX (DE40) 24,046.01 +17.87 (+0.07%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,645.09 −21.92 (−0.23%)

USD Index 99.10 +0.11% (+0.11%)

News feed for: 2025.12.09

  • Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 05:30 (GMT+2); – AUD, AU200 (HIGH)
  • Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement at 05:30 (GMT+2); – AUD, AU200 (HIGH)
  • Australia RBA Press Conference at 06:30 (GMT+2); – AUD, AU200 (MED)
  • Japan BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks at 11:00 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
  • Mexican Inflation Rate (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2); – MXN (MED)
  • US ADP Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (MED)
  • UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 16:15 (GMT+2); – GBP (LOW)
  • US JOLTS Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
  • New Zealand RBNZ Gov Breman Speaks at 23:10 (GMT+2). – NZD (LOW)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
09 Dec

What 38 million obituaries reveal about how Americans define a ‘life well lived’

By Stylianos Syropoulos, Arizona State University; David Markowitz, Michigan State University, and Kyle Fiore Law, Arizona State University 

Obituaries preserve what families most want remembered about the people they cherish most. Across time, they also reveal the values each era chose to honor.

In a study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, we analyzed 38 million obituaries of Americans published from 1998 to 2024. We identified the values families most often highlight, and how those values shift across generations, regions and major historical events.

Specifically, working with psychologists Liane Young and Thomas Mazzuchi, we examined the language used on Legacy.com, an online platform where families often post obituaries and share memories of loved ones.

During their lifetime, most people tend to be guided by a small set of broad values like caring for others, honoring tradition, keeping loved ones safe and seeking personal growth. To understand how these values showed up in remembrance, we used text-analysis tools built on curated lists of everyday words people use when talking about those themes.

By analyzing the words that appeared again and again in memorials, we could see which values communities chose to emphasize when looking back on the lives of their loved ones, and how those patterns changed over time. Because the dataset included 38 million obituaries, the analysis ran on a supercomputer.

Across nearly 30 years of obituaries, words related to the value “tradition” appeared most often – many tributes described religious participation and enduring customs. Words related to the value “benevolence” – caring for the welfare of others – were also consistently prominent. In fact, tradition and benevolence formed the dominant value profile across the dataset: They appeared in more than 70% of the obituaries. By contrast, words related to values like “achievement” and “power” appeared far less often.

Historical events did leave a mark. After the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the language families used to remember loved ones shifted compared with the period just before the attacks – and those shifts persisted for at least a year. Words related to the value “security” – including terms like “surviving,” “health” and “order” – showed up less often. At the same time, families used more language related to values like “benevolence” and “tradition.” Terms like “caring,” “loyal” and “service” showed up more often. These changes were especially strong in New York, where the attacks had the most direct impact.

COVID-19, however, produced the most dramatic shifts. Beginning in March 2020, benevolence-related language – including terms like “love,” “sympathy” and “family” – declined sharply, and hasn’t been the same since. Tradition-related language – terms like “service,” “faith” and “heritage” – initially declined as well, then rose above baseline levels during later stages of the pandemic.

These changes show that collective disruptions impact the moral vocabulary families use when commemorating loved ones. They shift what it means to have lived a good life.

We also saw differences that reflect stereotypes about gender and age. Obituaries for men contained more language linked to achievement, conformity and power. Meanwhile, obituaries for women contained more language associated with benevolence and enjoying life’s pleasures.

Older adults were often remembered more for valuing tradition. Younger adults, on the other hand, were often remembered more for valuing the welfare of all people and nature, and for being motivated to think and act independently. Value patterns in men’s obituaries shifted more across the lifespan than those in women’s. In other words, the values highlighted in younger and older men’s obituaries differed more from each other, while women’s value profiles stayed relatively consistent across age.

Why it matters

The most visited parts of print newspapers and online memorial sites, obituaries offer a window into what societies value at different points in time.

This study contributes to the broader scientific understanding of legacy. People often hold strong preferences about how they want to be remembered, but far less is known about how they actually are remembered, in part because large-scale evidence about real memorials is rare. Our analysis of millions of obituaries helps fill that gap.

What’s next

Obituaries allow researchers to trace cultural values across time, geography and social groups. Future work can examine differences across race and occupation, as well as across regions. It could also look to earlier periods using historical obituary archives, such as those preserved in older newspapers and local records.

Another direction is to examine whether highlighting how often kindness shows up in obituaries could inspire people to be more caring in daily life.

Understanding what endures in memory helps clarify what people consider meaningful; those values shape how they choose to live.

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.The Conversation

About the Author: 

Stylianos Syropoulos, Assistant Professor of Psychology, Arizona State University; David Markowitz, Associate Professor of Communication, Michigan State University, and Kyle Fiore Law, Postdoctoral Research Scholar in Sustainability, Arizona State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
08 Dec

How keeping down borrowing costs for mortgages and other loans is built into the Fed’s ‘dual mandate’

By Arabinda Basistha, West Virginia University 

What’s the point of monetary policy?

For most of us, the main impact tends to be how much we have to pay to borrow to buy a house or car. But for the Federal Reserve, the purpose of its monetary policy is mandated by Congress.

This is widely known as the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate: promoting maximum employment and stable prices. The Fed itself refers to these two objectives regularly in its Federal Open Market Committee statements announcing its monetary policy decisions.

A third objective of monetary policy, however, is less well-known: moderate long-term interest rates.

This “third mandate” was a big news story in September 2025, when the Trump administration’s newly appointed Fed governor, Stephen Miran, referred to it in his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Financial markets paid close attention to this aspect of the testimony because the comments suggested that Miran and other presidential appointees may focus on this third mandate – and on driving down long-term borrowing costs – more than the Fed has in the recent past.

I’ve been closely following how the Fed conducts monetary policy for many years. Miran is correct that Congress has tasked the U.S. central bank with all three of these objectives – but that’s not the whole story. In fact, none of these goals were originally spelled out in the act that set up the Fed over a century ago.

Since then, the Fed’s goals have been revised several times – typically in response to a crisis.

The Fed’s shifting goals

The original purpose of the Fed, as explained in the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, was to provide flexibility in the nation’s currency supply and to supervise the U.S. banking system. The current dual mandate was not part of the original goals of the Fed.

Instead, its core goal was to reduce the frequent banking panics that were costly to the economy and sharply increased interest rates.

The first big change in the goals, in response to the Great Depression, was the Employment Act of 1946 that stated the goal of federal government policy – and, therefore that of the Fed – is to “promote maximum employment, production and purchasing power.”

This is where the two goals of the dual mandate first began to emerge, with purchasing power implying the Fed needed to keep inflation low.

Following the macroeconomic instability of the 1970s with high unemployment and high inflation, Congress enacted the Federal Reserve Reform Act of 1977 that formalized the Fed mandate: “maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy’s long run potential to increase production, so as to promote the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.”

In other words, Congress gave the Fed three mandates to follow in monetary policy.

What happened to the third mandate?

So why doesn’t the Fed still talk about that third mandate?

Part of the answer is that moderate long-term interest rates are a natural by-product of successfully managing the other two.

In pursuit of low inflation and maximum employment, the Fed primarily uses a short-term interest rate, known as the Federal Funds rate. When journalists report that the Fed raised or lowered interest rates, this refers to the so-called target rate that the central bank uses to control the Fed Funds rate. For example, the current target rate is a range of 3.75% to 4%, while the effective Fed Funds rate is 3.89%. Banks use the funds rate as the cost other banks must pay to borrow reserve funds for one day.

However, most of the interest rates that matter to people, businesses and the economy at large have much longer terms – such as five, 10 or 30 years. Examples include mortgages, car loans and corporate bonds. The Fed does not directly control these longer-term interest rates, which are set by financial markets.

But studies have found that the Fed’s policy decisions can influence long-term rates, primarily due to “expectations theory.” That theory argues that long-term rates reflect financial markets’ expectations of future short-term rates.

So if markets believe the Fed has inflation under control, they tend to keep long-term rates on mortgages and everything else low because they don’t expect the Fed will increase its target rate. If inflation is running high, long-term rates tend to rise because markets expect the Fed to have to lift its short-term rate to deal with it. But if unemployment is running high, long-term rates tend to fall because markets expect the Fed to reduce its short-term rate to deal with that.

Longer-term rates are, therefore, not independent of the dual mandate of the Fed. They are often an outcome of how successfully the Fed is meeting the dual mandate of full employment and stable prices currently and in the future.

As a result, the Fed doesn’t typically talk about this third mandate.

Promoting economic stability

That said, the Fed has, at times, although very rarely, influenced long-term rates directly.

For example, in late 2010, following the Great Recession of 2007-2009, the Fed purchased billions of dollars’ worth of long-term Treasury bonds and other securities – a program known as “QE2” for quantitative easing – in an effort to lower the cost of borrowing for consumers and businesses. The Fed did something similar in 1961 with Operation Twist, similarly with an aim to support the U.S. economy by reducing long-term borrowing costs.

But even this phase of quantitative easing was primarily about meeting the Fed’s dual mandate. More specifically, since inflation was already low, the Fed was trying to boost hiring in the wake of the Great Recession.

The Fed is keenly aware that longer-term interest rates that are not aligned with its dual mandate can be an important source of instability in the economy. A modern central bank’s primary goal is to promote stability in the economy, so longer-term interest rates should be at levels that are appropriate to ensure current and future economic stability.The Conversation

About the Author:

Arabinda Basistha, Associate Professor of Economics, West Virginia University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
08 Dec

Canadian dollar hits 2‑month high. Mexican peso rises on carry trade appeal

By JustMarkets 

By Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.22% (weekly +0.79%), the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.19% (weekly +0.85%), and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.43% higher (weekly +1.82%). Support came from fresh data: the PCE Price Index rose 0.3% in September vs. August, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index improved for the first time in five months. This strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut of 25 bp, with probability around 87%. Large‑cap stocks mostly rose: Amazon 0.7%, Alphabet 1.3%, Meta 0.7%, Broadcom 2.7%, Tesla 0.4%, while Apple was unchanged and Nvidia fell 0.2%.

The Canadian dollar strengthened above 1.39 per USD, reaching a two‑month high, supported by strong labor market data and US dollar weakness. November unemployment unexpectedly fell to 6.5%, with the number of unemployed down 80,000 to 1.5 million, signaling an easing domestic slowdown. This outcome increased the likelihood of a Bank of Canada pause after October’s rate cut, while expectations of a near‑certain Fed cut in December and further easing in 2026 pressured the dollar and supported CAD.

Mexican peso firmed to 18.16 per USD, its highest since July 2024, amid near‑certain expectations of a Fed rate cut in December, which weakened the dollar and boosted EM carry trade appeal. Additional support came from a stable labor market (unemployment at 2.6%), an October trade surplus, and Banxico’s lowered inflation expectations, maintaining positive real rates and attracting capital inflows.

European equities traded mixed on Friday, but posted a second week of gains. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.61% (weekly +1.25%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.09% (weekly +0.45%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.35% (weekly +2.23%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.45% (weekly -0.55%). Automakers Mercedes‑Benz, Volkswagen, and BMW showed solid gains again. Defense firms Rheinmetall and Leonardo ended the week higher amid fading expectations of a quick end to the war in Ukraine.

Silver prices rose above $58, nearing all‑time highs, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut and renewed investor interest. Slowing private‑sector hiring and corporate layoff data reinforced confidence in easing. Additional drivers included low exchange inventories, active ETF accumulation, a projected 2025 supply deficit, and strong demand from solar and other green industries.

The natural gas prices exceeded $5/MMBtu, hitting a three‑year high and rising 70% from mid‑October lows amid surging export demand. European countries continued to reduce reliance on Russian gas, while US LNG exports in November rose 40% to 10.7 million tons. Further support came from cold‑winter expectations in the US Northeast and Great Lakes, while EIA data showed utilities withdrew 12 bcf of gas in the week ending November 21, slightly above expectations.

Asian equities mostly rose last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.34%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.91%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.54%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.24% over five days.

Offshore yuan held near 7.06 per USD, as strong external demand offset weak domestic activity. November exports rose 5.9% y/y on improved US relations, while imports grew just 1.9%, signaling sluggish domestic demand. The trade surplus widened to $111.7bn, a five‑month high, supporting GDP growth prospects toward the 5% target. Investors await inflation data to gauge the next steps in China’s monetary policy.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,870.40 +13.28 (+0.19%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,954.99 +104.05 (+0.22%)

DAX (DE40) 24,028.14 +146.11 (+0.61%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,667.01 −43.86 (−0.45%)

USD Index 99.99 0% (0%)

News feed for: 2025.12.08

  • Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
  • China Trade Balance (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (LOW)
  • German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2). – EUR (LOW)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
05 Dec

Week Ahead: Fed showdown to set market tone

By ForexTime 

 

  • Fed expected to cut rates for third time in 2025 
  • Updated dot plot and economic projections in focus
  • Trader’s pricing 27% chance of another cut by January 2026 
  • RUS2000: Fed decision forecasted to trigger moves of ↑ 1.8% & ↓ 2.5% 
  • XAGUSD & Bitcoin to see fresh volatility?

The Fed’s decision on December 10th could be the biggest event in Q4!

Such an event is likely to trigger fresh opportunities across markets.

To be clear, US rates are expected to be cut for the third time this year but the outlook for 2026 is harder to determine.

Considering the many variables at play, anything is on the table…

Before we take a deep dive, here is a calendar of events for the week ahead:

Monday, 8th December

  • CNY: China Balance of Trade (Nov)
  • EUR: Germany Industrial Production (Oct)
  • JPY: Japan GDP (Q3 final)
  • CHF: Swiss Consumer Confidence (Nov)

 

Tuesday, 9th December

  • GBP: BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Nov)
  • AUD: RBA Interest Rate Decision; NAB Business Confidence (Nov)
  • EUR: Germany Balance of Trade (Oct)
  • USD: US JOLTs Job Openings (Sep & Oct); ADP Employment Change Weekly; Nonfarm productivity (Q3)
  • WTI: API Crude Oil Stocks Change (w/e Dec 5)

 

Wednesday, 10th December

  • CNY: China Inflation Rate (Nov); PPI (Nov)
  • USD: Fed Interest Rate Decision; FOMC Economic Projections
  • CAD: BoC Interest Rate Decision
  • SPN35: Spain Consumer Confidence (Nov)
  • WTI: US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (w/e Dec 5)

 

Thursday, 11th December

  • GBP: RICS House Price Balance (Nov)
  • CHF: SNB Interest Rate Decision
  • USD: US Balance of Trade (Sep); Initial Jobless Claims (w/e Dec 6); PPI (Oct & Nov)
  • NZD: New Zealand Business PMI (Nov)
  • Brent: OPEC Monthly Report

Friday, 12th December

  • GBP: UK GDP (Oct); Industrial Production (Oct); Manufacturing Production (Oct)
  • USD: Fed Goolsbee Speech

 

Why is the December Fed meeting a big deal?

Missing economic data caused by the government shutdown and a deeply divided committee have left most scratching their heads over what to expect in 2026.

The absence of October’s NFP report and the latest CPI will force officials to decide based on incomplete information, at a time when the FOMC is more divided than in recent years.

Amidst the uncertainty, the Fed also publishes its updated economic projections and dot plot which may set the tone for policy in 2026.

 

Market expectations…

Traders are pricing in a 98% probability of a rate cut in December and expecting up to four rate cuts in 2026.

But these expectations may be heavily influenced by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference and the updated dot plot.

Will the dot plot tilt more in favour of hawks or doves? Whatever the outcome, it could rock financial markets.

Potential market impact…

Dovish tilt: supports risk assets (US equities), softens USD, lowers yields; bullish for gold/silver and Bitcoin.

Hawkish tilt: pressures equities, boosts USD, lifts yields; headwind for precious metals and cryptos.

 

Here is how these assets are forecasted to react in a 6-hour period after the Fed decision.

 

Source: Bloomberg.

  • USDInd: ↑ 0.6 % or ↓ 0.2%
  • NAS100: ↑ 1.6 % or ↓ 1.5%
  • US500: ↑ 1.3 % or ↓ 1.3%
  • XAUUSD: ↑ 0.3 % or ↓ 1.0%
  • BITCOIN: ↑ 2.0 % or ↓ 1.8%
  • RUS2000: ↑ 1.8 % or ↓ 2.5%
  • XAGUSD: ↑ 0.5 % or ↓ 1.4%

 

Looking at the charts, RUS2000, BITCOIN and XAGUSD could be set for significant price swings. Key price levels have been identified on the charts.

 

RUS2000

FXTM’s RUS2000 tracks the smallest 2000 publicly listed US companies that are more reflective of true economic conditions.

It has gained roughly 13% year-to-date, trading roughly 1% away from its all-time high.

Key levels of interest can be found at 2547.6, 2500. and 2465.0.

 

BITCOIN

Bitcoin is back above $90,000 but bulls need to take out the psychological $100,000 to regain back control.

As highlighted earlier, a dovish tile may boost prices higher while a hawkish tilt may spark a selloff.

 

XAGUSD

Silver is up almost 100% year-to-date, hitting an all-time high earlier in the week.

If the Fed signals further rate cuts in 2026, this could fuel the rally – opening a path to fresh highs.

Key levels can be found at $58.90, $54.40 and $49.50.

 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

 

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
05 Dec

Natural gas price nears $5/MMBtu. German DAX hits three-week high

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.07% on Thursday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.11%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed lower by 0.10%. The US indices finished Thursday with mixed to slightly higher results as markets awaited the Fed’s decision, having generally already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut. Weak hiring data from ADP and a rise in announced layoffs bolstered expectations for policy easing, although initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell, giving a mixed signal on the labor market. Initial jobless claims in the US dropped to 191 thousand, the lowest level since September 2022. The figures confirm that the labor market is cooling due to weaker hiring. The number of continuing claims also slightly declined, remaining above post-pandemic recovery levels.

European stocks traded mixed on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.79%, the French CAC 40 (FR 40) closed up by 0.43%, the Spanish IBEX 35 Index (ES35) gained 0.97%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed higher by 0.19%. The Frankfurt DAX reached a three-week high, outperforming most other European markets. The main driver was the auto sector after Bank of America upgraded its 2026 prognoses and EU officials hinted at a potential retreat from a complete ban on internal combustion engines. Against this backdrop, shares of Porsche, Daimler Truck, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Volkswagen saw solid gains, supporting the index’s overall rise.

WTI crude oil prices held around $59.7 per barrel on Friday, remaining at a two-week high amid heightened geopolitical risks. Markets reacted to signals of potential US measures against Venezuela and the lack of progress in Ukraine negotiations, supporting supply concerns. Expectations of US rate cuts, which could stimulate demand, provided additional support to prices, although worries about weak consumption and supply surplus limited gains.

The US natural gas (XNG) prices fell to $4.95/MMBtu, correcting from a three-year peak after EIA data showed higher-than-expected inventory levels. Despite this, prices remain approximately 70% above October lows thanks to rising export demand: US LNG exports in November increased by 40% year-over-year, and Europe is accelerating its move away from Russian gas, planning to completely cease LNG imports from the Russian Federation by 2027.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.33%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.43%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 0.68%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.27%.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,857.12 +7.40 (+0.11%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,850.94 −31.96 (−0.07%)

DAX (DE40) 23,882.03 +188.32 (+0.79%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,710.87 +18.80 (+0.19%)

USD Index 99.05 +0.20% (+0.20%)

News feed for: 2025.12.05

  • Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2) – CAD (HIGH);
  • US Core PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
04 Dec

The US labor market is showing signs of job losses

By JustMarkets 

By Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.86%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.30%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.20% higher. Markets increased bets on Fed easing after the ADP report showed an unexpected decline of 32,000 jobs. The financial sector led strongly: Wells Fargo and Citi shares gained 3.5% each, while UnitedHealth jumped 4.7% thanks to improved expectations for costs and demand. Among tech companies, Marvell stood out, rising 7.9% on an optimistic prognosis for data centers and AI hardware, while Microsoft fell 2.5% after temporary concerns over reduced quotas for AI products.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.39 per USD, reaching a monthly high thanks to US dollar weakness and signs of Canadian economic resilience. Stronger‑than‑expected GDP growth increased the likelihood of a pause in the Bank of Canada easing. Additional support came from rising oil and copper prices, which improved trade conditions despite weak manufacturing PMI.

Mexican peso firmed to 18.27 per USD, its highest since July, amid US dollar weakness and a resilient domestic labor market. Mexico’s low unemployment rate of 2.6% reduces the need for Banxico to ease policy quickly, supporting the attractiveness of high real interest rates.

European equities traded mixed on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.07%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) rose by 0.16%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.68%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.10% lower. European markets were buoyed by optimism over Fed easing after weak US labor data, despite mixed ECB signals: Lagarde noted inflation nearing target, while Lane warned of risks of acceleration. Corporate news drove gains: ASML rose by 2.6% after rating upgrades, Inditex surged 9% on strong results, and Stellantis and Airbus climbed 7.7% and 1.5% respectively.

Swiss franc held near 0.80 per USD, close to multi‑year highs ahead of the SNB meeting. Inflation in Switzerland was unexpectedly low again, with core prices falling to a four‑year low, complicating the central bank’s task. With rates already at 0%, the SNB remains cautious about easing, wary of financial stability risks, though it leaves the option open. Policymakers signaled that a return to negative rates is unlikely, but policy adjustments may be needed if the expected moderate inflation rebound fails to materialize.

WTI oil rose above $59/barrel amid geopolitical tensions: Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities and lack of progress in talks with Moscow heightened supply risks. Additional uncertainty came from the US signals toward Venezuela’s oil sector. However, gains were capped by signs of weak demand and rising US crude and product inventories (EIA data), pointing to potential oversupply.

Asian equities traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.14%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.70%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped by 1.28%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.18%.

The Australian dollar climbed to 0.661 USD, a two‑month high, supported by unexpectedly strong domestic spending, which boosted expectations of another RBA rate hike in 2026. Household spending in October rose 1.3% versus 0.6% projections, reinforcing tightening prospects. At next week’s meeting, markets still expect the rate to remain at 3.6%, but the RBA’s tone may turn more hawkish amid overheating risks and persistent inflationary pressures.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,849.72 +20.35 (+0.30%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,882.90 +408.44 (+0.86%)

DAX (DE40) 23,693.71 −17.15 (−0.072%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,692.07 −9.73 (−0.10%)

USD Index 99.32 −0.10% (−0.10%)

News feed for: 2025.12.04

  • Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (LOW)
  • Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+2); – CHF (LOW)
  • Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – CAD (LOW)
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
03 Dec

Bitcoin climbs back above $93,000. Palladium rises to $1,460/oz

By JustMarkets 

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.39%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.25%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.59% higher. Risk appetite supported Bitcoin’s rally, while the AI and software sector helped stabilize sentiment. Key drivers included Boeing, Nvidia, Oracle, and Intel, which posted significant gains. Investors continue to monitor macro data and the delayed PCE report ahead of next week’s Fed meeting, where markets still expect a 25 bp rate cut. Rising sovereign bond yields limited a stronger market recovery.

Bitcoin climbed back above $93,000, recovering confidently after its sharp drop below $84,000 earlier this month amid renewed risk demand. The rally was supported by expectations of a 25 bp Fed rate cut next week. Additional momentum came from rumors that Kevin Hassett may be appointed Fed Chair, reinforcing dovish sentiment, along with positive industry news: the SEC is preparing an “innovation exemption” for digital asset companies, and Vanguard announced plans to launch digital assets-focused funds.

European equities closed mostly higher on Tuesday, reflecting improved sentiment as investors assessed the trajectory of global interest rates. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.51%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.28%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.49%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) slipped 0.01%. The banking sector supported gains after Japanese bond stabilization, with BNP Paribas and ING up about 2%, and Santander rising on the sale of its Polish unit stake. Bayer surged more than 12%. The FTSE 100 rose 0.2% to 9,720 points, its highest in three weeks, driven by British banks after a successful stress test confirmed sector resilience.

Palladium (XPD) rose to $1,460/oz, its highest in nearly a month, supported by improved demand expectations and signs of limited supply. The launch of palladium futures in China added hedging tools and boosted interest from the world’s largest metals consumer. Medium‑term outlook points to supply deficits lasting at least until 2026.

Platinum (XPT) fell below $1,650/oz after recently hitting a six‑week high, as rising US bond yields and weak manufacturing data in the US and China triggered profit‑taking. Before the correction, platinum had rallied on expectations of recovering Chinese demand following the launch of a new physical contract on the Guangzhou exchange. Year‑to‑date, platinum has gained more than 70%, supported by supply disruptions in South Africa, safe‑haven demand, and strong Chinese buying.

WTI slipped slightly on Tuesday to around $59/barrel as the market digested mixed geopolitical and supply signals. Tensions with Venezuela escalated after Donald Trump declared its airspace “closed,” while Ukrainian strikes on OPEC+‑related facilities temporarily disrupted operations at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal. Meanwhile, OPEC+ confirmed current production levels will be maintained in Q1 2026 amid oversupply risks.
Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.01%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.25%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.24%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed 0.16% higher.

The Australian dollar climbed to a five‑week high near $0.657 on Wednesday, despite weak GDP data. Australia’s economy grew just 0.4% QoQ, below expectations, reducing the likelihood of the RBA tightening next year. Markets are now almost certain the rate will remain at 3.6% at next week’s meeting, while Governor Bullock emphasized readiness to act if inflationary pressures return.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,829.37 +16.74 (+0.25%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,474.46 +185.13 (+0.39%)

DAX (DE40) 23,710.86 +121.42 (+0.51%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,701.80 −0.73 (−0.01%)

USD Index 99.32 −0.10% (−0.10%)

News feed for: 2025.12.03

  • Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD (LOW)
  • Australia GDP (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
  • Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
  • Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
  • China RatingDog Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2); CHA50, HK50 (MED)
  • Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
  • UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (LOW)
  • Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – WTI (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
02 Dec

Digital assets under pressure after PBoC statements. Oil prices jump amid rising geopolitical risks

By JustMarkets 

On Monday, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.90%, the S&P 500 (US500) dropped 0.53%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.38% lower. Investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of key macro data this week, including the delayed September PCE inflation report and the upcoming FOMC decision. The tech sector saw volatility, while retail stocks showed resilience thanks to the holiday season momentum: Home Depot and Walmart posted gains. Manufacturing data pointed to further weakness: the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 in November 2025, the lowest in four months and below expectations of 48.6. The sector has contracted for nine consecutive months, with the pace of decline accelerating compared to September (48.7).

Selling pressure intensified on digital assets. Bitcoin fell more than 6%, dropping below $85,000 and extending the decline that began in November when it first broke under $90,000. Sentiment worsened after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) declared digital currency activities illegal. This triggered a sharp drop in digital assets company stocks on the Hong Kong exchange, while Ethereum and Solana fell more than 8% and 7% respectively, fueling a global digital assets sell‑off.

European equities mostly declined on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.04%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.32% lower, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.11%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended 0.18% lower. Airbus shares dropped 5.7% after an intraday plunge of more than 10% due to a new quality issue affecting dozens of A320 aircraft, despite most planes with prior software glitches already being modified.

On Tuesday, WTI prices traded around $59.3/barrel, stabilizing after a gain of more than 1% in the previous session. Support continued from geopolitical risks threatening global oil supplies and the latest OPEC+ production decision. Tensions between the US and Venezuela escalated after President Donald Trump threatened to treat Venezuelan airspace as closed.

The US natural gas prices kept rising amid cold weather and strong LNG exports. In early December, US natural gas futures surpassed $4.8/MMBtu, hitting a three‑year high and extending November’s 15% rally. Severe cold from December 3-7 across the Northeast and Great Lakes boosted demand, with projections pointing to below‑normal temperatures in the coming weeks. Storage withdrawals of 11 bcf in the week ending November 21 confirmed a tightening supply‑demand balance.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.89%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.77%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.67%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed 0.44% lower. On Tuesday morning, the Hang Seng rose to 26,218, extending the prior session’s gains. Sentiment improved on expectations that weak November PMI data may prompt new stimulus measures ahead of next week’s Central Economic Work Conference. Fresh data also supported the market: Hong Kong retail sales in October posted the strongest growth since late 2023, reflecting a steady influx of tourists.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,812.63 −36.46 (−0.53%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,289.33 −427.09 (−0.90%)

DAX (DE40) 23,589.44 −247.35 (−1.04%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,702.53 −17.98 (−0.18%)

USD Index 99.41 −0.05% (−0.05%)

News feed for: 2025.12.02

  • UK FPC Meeting Minutes at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (LOW)
  • Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2). – EUR (LOW)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
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