InvestMacro

By Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.61% (weekly +4.16%), the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.54% (weekly +4.47%), and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.78% higher (weekly +5.37%). The US stocks ended November in positive territory. Risk appetite remained strong amid an 80-85% probability of a Fed rate cut in the coming weeks. Volatility increased during the day after a technical glitch at CME: a cooling system failure at the Chicago data center temporarily disrupted futures trading, causing unstable price feeds for many liquidity providers.

The Canadian dollar strengthened above 1.40 per USD, reaching a monthly high. Support came from stronger‑than‑expected Q3 GDP data, coinciding with US dollar weakness on rising Fed easing expectations.

Mexican peso firmed to 18.32 per USD, its highest since July 2024, as labor market resilience supported Banxico’s stance of maintaining tight monetary policy. October 2025 unemployment remained at 2.6% – slightly above 2.5% a year earlier, but below the expected 2.8% and the six‑month average, signaling labor market stability.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) fell more than 4% to $86,000, returning to April lows amid a new wave of digital assets sell‑offs. The decline was exacerbated by corporate factors: Strategy Inc. CEO Phong Le said the company may sell part of its Bitcoin holdings to finance dividend payments. A warning from Yearn’s X about a liquidity pool issue (yETH) sparked fresh concerns in DeFi. Bitcoin fell 17% in November.

European markets mostly rose on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) gained 0.29% (weekly +2.39%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.29% higher (weekly +1.15%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.06% (weekly +2.57%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended 0.27% higher (weekly +1.90%). ECB minutes showed policymakers are in no rush to cut rates, given heightened economic uncertainty.

Silver (XAG/USD) price rose more than 1% above $57/oz on Monday, setting a new all‑time high. The rally was driven by supply constraints and expectations of imminent Fed easing. Inventories at warehouses linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to their lowest in nearly a decade, raising concerns about metal availability.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) climbed above $4.7/MMBtu, nearing the highest level since December 2022. Gains were supported by cold weather in key consumption regions. Winter conditions have already hit parts of the Midwest and East Coast. The European Centre model also expects significant early‑December colds in the same regions. LNG exports added further support: November shipments from US terminals averaged 18 bcf/day, surpassing the previous record.

Asian markets broadly rose last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.04%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.09%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.60%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 1.44% over five days. Chinese stocks rose for a third straight day, nearing multi‑year highs, supported by optimism around AI development and related investments. However, further gains were capped by weak macro signals: manufacturing PMI fell for the eighth consecutive month, highlighting ongoing industrial pressure.

The New Zealand dollar traded near a monthly high, supported by hawkish signals from the RBNZ. Last week, the central bank cut the refinancing rate by 25 bp to 2.25%, its lowest since June 2022, but indicated the easing cycle is essentially over. Updated prognoses assign only a 20% probability of another cut in 2026.

On Thursday, the US stocks came under heavy selling pressure. The Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.84%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) dropped 1.56%. The Nasdaq (US100) closed down 2.38%. Market participants increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a hawkish stance on rates. The shift in sentiment was driven both by reassessment of risks around lofty valuations of AI‑related companies and by new data confirming labor market resilience. The delayed employment figures, the last before the December FOMC meeting, showed a larger‑than‑expected increase in jobs, reinforcing expectations that rates will remain unchanged next month.

The technology and AI sector was again in the spotlight. Nvidia shares fell by 3.2%, despite gaining about 5% at the open. The company reported results that beat expectations and highlighted steady demand for AI infrastructure. However, its comment that a $100 billion contract with OpenAI was not guaranteed heightened investor concerns that the data‑center market may be overheated. Against this backdrop, AMD, Micron, and Oracle shares dropped 6-11%. Walmart rose by 6% after posting strong quarterly results and raising its annual projections, supporting the retail sector.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.41 per US dollar. Gains sparked by budget approval quickly faded as fundamentals remained weak. Bank of Canada officials again stressed the need for broad structural measures to boost productivity, noting that tighter US trade barriers increase risks for Canada’s economy, which already shows signs of slowing. The commodity market also failed to support the loonie, as oil prices fell after industry data showed US crude inventories rose by about 4.4 million barrels and seaborne stocks climbed to record levels. This deprived the Canadian currency of a key external driver.

Bitcoin fell to $85,000, its lowest level since April, as the global sell‑off in tech stocks, driven by renewed concerns about the AI sector, spread to other risk assets, including digital assets. Correlation between Bitcoin and the tech sector rose to a six‑month high of 80%, highlighting the leading digital assets’ departure from their supposed role as a “safe haven” during market uncertainty.

European stocks recovered slightly on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.50%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.34%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.63%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) rose 0.21%. European equities ended Thursday with sharp gains, following the rebound in global markets after Nvidia’s strong earnings eased concerns about excessively high valuations of tech companies. Against this backdrop, European firms linked to data‑center infrastructure led the rally: Siemens, Schneider Electric, and ASML all closed firmly higher.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $58 per barrel on Friday, declining for the third consecutive day. The US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil took effect. The new measures could force up to 48 million barrels of Russian oil to remain at sea due to restricted access to buyers and logistics channels. Indian refiners, which in recent years relied on discounted Russian oil supplies, are already beginning to seek alternative sources.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.65%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.41%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) edged up 0.02%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed positive 1.24%.

On Tuesday, the US stocks closed sharply lower. The Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.07%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) dropped 0.83%. The Nasdaq (US100) closed down 1.20%. Expensive valuations of technology companies came under renewed pressure after several weeks of active debt issuance tied to investment programs. The decline was led by mega‑caps: Nvidia lost 2.8%, Microsoft 2.7%, Amazon 4.4%, Tesla 1.9%. Home Depot plunged 6% after cutting its annual prognosis. Markets reduced the probability of a Fed rate cut in December to about 40%, compared with 90% a month ago. The trigger was hawkish comments from several Fed officials and anticipation of new US data, including Thursday’s employment report and the resumption of delayed statistics, which are expected to set the market’s next direction.

Bitcoin fell below $90,000 for the first time since April, then partially recovered to around $92,000. Market pressure intensified due to a broad and sharp investors’ retreat from risk amid concerns about asset overvaluation and reduced odds of further Fed rate cuts. Amid the sell‑off, Bitcoin is heading toward its first annual decline since 2023, trading about 25% below its all‑time high of $126,200 set in October.

European stocks fell to a one‑month low on Tuesday, extending their downward trend amid a global sell‑off driven by concerns over the overvaluation of the global tech sector. Germany’s DAX (DE40) dropped by 1.74% to a 5‑month low, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.86%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 2.14%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 1.27%. The banking sector was among the biggest losers – Santander, Intesa Sanpaolo, and ING each lost more than 3%. Pressure was also felt in cyclical consumer goods and technology segments.

On Wednesday, silver (XAG/USD) rose to $51 per ounce, rebounding from a weekly low, as the sell‑off in risk assets, including tech stocks and digital assets, boosted demand for precious metals as safe‑haven assets. Additional support came from signs of US labor market weakness, which strengthened expectations of further Fed easing.

Platinum (XPT/USD) fell below $1,545 per ounce. Physical demand from automakers declined due to optimization of metal use, while the accelerated shift to electric vehicles reduced the need for platinum catalysts in combustion engines. Clarification of inventory levels in China and early signs of recovery in South African production also weakened the deficit premium, leading to reduced speculative and ETF positions.

Asian markets also traded under pressure yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 3.22%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 0.29%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 1.72%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed negative 1.94%.

Seasonally adjusted unemployment in Hong Kong fell to 3.8% for the three‑month period ending October 2025. The number of unemployed decreased by 6,000 to 149,600, while total employment fell by 1,500 to 3.67 million. Hong Kong’s labor market is likely to continue receiving support from steady economic growth, rising business confidence, and recovering consumer sentiment.

In Australia, steady wage growth in Q3, last week’s strong employment report, and persistent inflationary pressures strengthened expectations that the monetary easing cycle is nearing its end. Swap markets now estimate the probability of a final rate cut in May next year at only 50%.

The New Zealand dollar fell to $0.562, remaining near a seven‑month low amid expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut interest rates again next week. Financial markets have fully priced in a 25 basis point cut following a series of weak economic data that bolstered arguments for additional stimulus. Additional pressure on the currency came from newly released data showing producer prices in Q3 rose less than projections, pointing to further easing of inflationary pressures.

By Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.18%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) dropped 0.92%. The Nasdaq (US100) closed lower at 0.84%. The US stock market started the week with a sharp decline amid expectations of key economic data and tech company earnings. Leading the sell-off were major technology firms: Nvidia shares fell by 1.9% ahead of quarterly results, due after Wednesday’s market close, which will be an important indicator of the sustainability of AI-related valuations. At the same time, expectations for a rate cut increased. Federal funds futures now price in about a 40-45% chance of a 25 basis point cut in December, raising trader interest in employment data and other key economic releases this week.

The Canadian dollar stabilized around 1.40 per US dollar after the inflation data. The weighted core inflation measure, the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) main benchmark, fell to 3% in October but remained close to peak levels last seen in February 2024. These figures reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada likely ended its rate-cutting cycle at the last meeting, provided the baseline scenario holds and the economy proves resilient to US tariffs, while core inflation stays above target.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) fell nearly 2% to around $90,000, deepening a month-long sell-off that erased its yearly gains and pushed prices to their lowest in six months. The total digital assets market capitalization has shrunk by at least 30% since peaking on October 6, intensifying the decline that began earlier in the month and was accompanied by liquidations exceeding $19 billion. Reduced institutional activity and overall macroeconomic pressure, including fading expectations of a December Fed rate cut, added to the strain on Bitcoin and other high-beta assets.

European stock markets fell yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) dropped 1.20%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.63%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 1.06%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.24%.

In Q3, Switzerland’s GDP contracted by 0.5% after growing 0.1% in Q2. Lower tariffs partially reduced risks for the economy, while SNB officials maintained expectations of gradual inflation growth in the coming quarters. The central bank is in no hurry to cut rates below zero, fearing potential destabilization of the financial system. The Swiss franc weakened slightly to around 0.795 per US dollar but remained close to 2011 highs.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $59.4 per barrel on Tuesday, extending the previous session’s decline as oversupply concerns outweighed expectations of potential sanctions against Russian oil. The market outlook remains weak. A significant supply surplus is expected at the end of this year and into 2026, as producers inside and outside OPEC ramp up output amid slowing global demand growth.

Asian markets traded under pressure yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.10%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 0.83%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 0.71%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a slight gain of 0.02%.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar moderately strengthened to $0.649, recovering part of the previous session’s losses after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes emphasized caution and data dependency in future policy decisions. Earlier this month, the RBA kept rates at 3.60%. Concerns about labor market cooling proved exaggerated: October saw a sharp rise in employment and a drop in unemployment. This led to a significant reassessment of easing expectations – the probability of a rate cut in May next year is now estimated at just 40%.

By Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.65% (weekly +0.11%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) slipped 0.05% (weekly -0.76%). The Nasdaq (US100) closed slightly higher at 0.06% (weekly -1.61%). The market managed to recover after a sharp drop at the start of trading, but the final move remained muted. Investors actively bought shares of major tech companies, partially offsetting the heavy sector losses from the previous day. The end of the longest government shutdown in US history removed one source of uncertainty but created another: delays in publishing microdata deprived investors of key guidance ahead of the next Fed decision, increasing volatility and forcing traders to reassess positions heading into year-end.

On Friday, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) fell nearly 5% to around $95,000, extending its decline for the fourth consecutive session amid worsening global risk sentiment. Bitcoin has now dropped more than 20% from the record high of $114,000 reached last month. The digital assets market continues to struggle to recover from October’s crash, which triggered record liquidations and widespread reduction of leveraged positions, highlighting growing risk aversion among investors. Additional pressure came from reports that Japan may introduce new rules targeting companies engaged in digital asset custody.

European stock markets declined on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.69% (weekly -0.20%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.76% (weekly +1.57%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 1.40% (weekly +1.69%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 1.11% (weekly +0.16%). Bayer shares were the day’s worst performer, losing 5.1%. Significant pressure was also seen in the banking and technology sectors.

The Swiss government confirmed reaching an agreement with Donald Trump’s administration on tariffs at 15%. This deal finally resolved the dispute that had dragged on since August, sparked by the unexpected US decision to raise tariffs on Swiss exports to 39%. Against this backdrop, the Swiss franc strengthened to 0.79 per dollar, its highest level since 2011. Additional support came from expectations of rising inflation in Switzerland. Representatives of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) expressed confidence that inflation will “accelerate somewhat” in the coming quarters.

The US natural gas prices fell more than 4% on Friday to $4.45 per MMBtu, retreating from highs last seen in December 2022 after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported larger-than-expected inventory builds. At the same time, gas production in the 48 US states reached a new record in November – 109 billion cubic feet per day, keeping inventories about 4% above seasonal norms and adding pressure on prices.

Asian markets traded under pressure last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.53%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 0.66%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 1.85%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a five-day loss of 1.79%.

In Q3 2025, Hong Kong’s economy grew 3.8% year-on-year, exceeding the previous quarter’s 3.1%. This was the strongest growth since Q4 2023, driven by robust export performance and stable domestic demand.

The New Zealand dollar fell to 0.565 USD, giving back part of last week’s gains. The main pressure came from heightened expectations of an imminent rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. At the same time, President Donald Trump canceled tariffs on more than 200 categories of food products from New Zealand. While the tariff removal supports New Zealand’s export sector and improves fundamentals, the currency market remains fully focused on RBNZ policy.