InvestMacro

On Monday, trading on the US stock market concluded with solid gains. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 1.05%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.54%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.56%. The growth was primarily driven by tech and growth stocks: Apple shares jumped over 3%, AMD rose nearly 5%, and Micron added over 5%. Alphabet and Amazon also traded firmly ahead of their earnings reports later this week. Oracle saw a slight correction following its recent rally linked to a $50 billion capital-raising plan, while Nvidia declined by approximately 2% amid ongoing uncertainty regarding its frozen $100 billion investment in OpenAI.

European equity markets mostly rose on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) climbed 1.05%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.67%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 1.31%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 1.15%. In the first half of the day, European stocks were under pressure due to a sharp crash in precious metals prices, which led to increased margin calls on key derivative exchanges. However, fears of systemic liquidity issues did not materialize, and the market reversed upward, showing growth across all sectors. Banking stocks were among the leaders, with Santander, UniCredit, ING, and Nordea gaining between 2-3%.

During Monday’s Asian session, silver quotes (XAG) dropped to $77 per ounce following Friday’s 30% collapse – the largest one-day decline in history, which almost entirely wiped out the year-to-date gains. Just last Thursday, silver had hit an all-time high exceeding $120 per ounce. The sharp market reversal followed reports of President Donald Trump’s intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, a move market participants viewed as a signal for a more hawkish monetary policy. Despite the current decline, silver continues to find some support from a structural supply deficit and the “debasement trade,” where investors reallocate capital from currencies and bonds into physical assets amid concerns over rising government debt, geopolitical uncertainty, and doubts about Fed independence.

WTI crude oil prices fell by more than 4.5% on Monday, dropping to $62.2 per barrel, marking the sharpest one-day decline in over six months. Pressure intensified after President Trump stated that Washington is in talks with Iran, easing fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. Iranian officials also signaled a readiness for dialogue, further calming investors who had priced in conflict risks. The price drop was exacerbated by a broader sell-off in commodity markets, particularly in metals.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) plummeted by 21% to $3.42 per MMBtu, completely erasing Friday’s 11% gain. This came after short-term weather prognoses shifted toward milder conditions, reducing expected demand. The market has been highly volatile; the February contract hit a three-year high last week due to storm-related production disruptions and heating demand. However, updated expectations from NOAA indicate above-normal temperatures across much of the US through mid-month, likely curbing demand for heating and power generation.

Asian markets mostly declined yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.25%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 1.44%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 2.23%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 1.02%.

The Australian dollar rose to around $0.70 on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), at its first monetary policy meeting of 2026, unanimously raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, fully meeting market expectations. This marked the first hike since November 2023 and highlighted a resurgence in inflationary pressures that intensified in late 2025 due to rising service sector costs and a tight labor market. The RBA noted that inflation is likely to remain above the 2-3% target range for some time, reflecting resilient economic dynamics.

On Friday, trading on the US stock market ended with a decline. By the close of Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index fell by 0.36% (-0.50% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.43% (+0.23% for the week). The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 1.28% (-0.31% for the week). Market pressure was driven by rising Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar after President Donald Trump appointed Kevin Warsh as the successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investors viewed this move as a signal toward a more hawkish and cautious monetary easing trajectory, triggering a rise in long-term bond yields and profit-taking in rate-sensitive assets following a strong January rally.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) retreated to 1.355 per US dollar. The weakness was linked to softer domestic economic growth signals and a rebounding US dollar, which partially offset January’s gains. Data showed that Canada’s real GDP remained unchanged in November, while the manufacturing sector recorded its third contraction in four months, indicating instability in underlying economic dynamics despite limited contributions from the service sector. This reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will maintain a cautious approach and refrain from tightening policy.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to above 17.4 per US dollar, correcting after a strong monthly gain. Pressure on the currency intensified amid US dollar strengthening and a revision of interest rate expectations, which reduced the attractiveness of carry trade operations. The key trigger was the dollar’s recovery following Kevin Warsh’s appointment as the next Fed Chair. The market interpreted this as a signal for a more predictable and disciplined monetary policy, leading to higher US yields and increasing the opportunity cost of holding peso positions.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) climbed 0.94% (-1.41% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.68% (-0.05% for the week), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 1.66% (+1.79% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at positive 0.51% (+0.79% for the week). The indices were supported by fresh economic data and corporate reports. Preliminary figures showed the German economy grew by +0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, exceeding expectations after stagnation in Q3 and a -0.2% contraction in Q2. Germany’s inflation rate rose to 2.1% in January 2026 from a December low of 1.8%, slightly exceeding market expectations of 2.0%.

On Friday, silver prices (XAG) plummeted by more than 25%, dropping to $84 per ounce following aggressive profit-taking that triggered a broad pullback in precious metal prices. Geopolitical tensions remained high after President Trump signed an executive order on tariffs for goods from countries supplying oil to Cuba, increasing pressure on Mexico, and called for Iran to enter nuclear negotiations, while Tehran promised a swift response. On the monetary front, market attention focused on Kevin Warsh’s appointment as the new Fed Chair, ending months of speculation regarding future US policy.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) surged 7%, reaching $4.10 per MMBtu, driven by increased flows to LNG export plants, including the likely restart of a train at the Freeport LNG plant in Texas. Deliveries for LNG production grew for the fourth consecutive day, reaching 17.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) after recently falling to an annual low of 11.5 bcf/d due to winter storms. The price increase occurred despite expectations for milder weather and lower heating demand, as well as the recovery of production from previously frozen wells. Weather is expected to remain colder than normal until February 14, and futures showed a nearly 14% gain in January after a 23% drop the previous month.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics last week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.56% for the trading week, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased 0.49%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) gained 2.02%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive 5-day result of 0.27%.

China’s official Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 points in January 2026, compared to 50.1 in December, missing market expectations of 50. The data indicate a loss of momentum at the start of the year: weak domestic and foreign demand, along with cautious business sentiment, continue to hinder recovery amid persistent structural economic issues.

Australian 10-year government bond yields rose toward 4.81%, remaining near a more than two-year high as markets increasingly priced in rate hikes ahead of the RBA meeting. The probability of a rate hike on February 3 is currently estimated at 75%, with market participants expecting another tightening by August. This was supported by a series of strong macro data points: December inflation was higher than expectations and remains far from the 2–3% target range, unemployment fell unexpectedly, job vacancies grew at the fastest pace since February 2022, and house price growth accelerated in January, highlighting economic resilience. Against this backdrop, analysts do not rule out that 10-year yields could briefly exceed 5% in the short term.

The US stock indices closed mixed on Thursday. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.11%. The S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.13%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.72%. The primary pressure on the market came from a large-scale sell-off in tech stocks as investors began to reassess the valuation of AI-related companies amid a busy corporate earnings season. The hardest hit was the high-tech sector after Microsoft’s shares plummeted by 10%. The company reported a slowdown in cloud business growth alongside a sharp increase in capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, triggering a chain reaction of selling in the sector and putting heavy pressure on the Nasdaq. At the same time, individual corporate reports supported the market: Meta shares soared 10% due to a revenue prognoses that exceeded expectations, IBM added 5%, and Caterpillar rose by 3.5% following strong results.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) weakened by 2.8%, dropping to $82,100 and hitting its lowest level since November 21, 2025. Market pressure was driven by several factors, the key one being a sustained capital outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs. From January 20 to 26, ETFs recorded a net outflow of approximately $1.14 billion, marking the largest weekly decline in inflows since the beginning of January. The bulk of the redemptions came from major funds, Fidelity’s FBTC, Grayscale’s GBTC, BlackRock’s IBIT, and Ark 21Shares’ ARKB, which collectively accounted for about 92% of all outflows. Notably, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, the largest Bitcoin ETF on the market, fell behind the same management company’s Gold ETF in terms of asset volume, highlighting a shift in investor interest toward more traditional safe-haven instruments.

Equity markets in Europe traded with no single trend on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 2.07%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.06%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.10%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed higher 0.17%. European stock markets ended Thursday’s session lower overall amid weak reports from several of the region’s largest companies.

In Sweden, the Riksbank’s key interest rate was left unchanged at 1.75% for the third consecutive time following the first monetary policy meeting of 2026, which was fully in line with market expectations. The central bank noted that the rate is likely to remain at its current level for some time while the regulator assesses the impact of measures already taken, which are expected to support a recovery in economic activity and stabilize inflation.

On Friday, WTI crude oil prices declined to around $64 per barrel; however, for the month as a whole, they continue to show their best performance since July 2023, supported by a rising geopolitical premium. Investors remain cautious amid renewed tensions between the US and Iran after President Donald Trump called on Tehran to return to negotiations regarding the nuclear program. The market is particularly focused on risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a strategically vital narrow route between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, through which a significant portion of global oil and LNG supplies passes daily. Any escalation in the region could lead to serious disruptions in global energy flows.

On Thursday, silver (XAG) dropped more than 6%, falling to around $110 per ounce, retreating from a record high of $120 amid active profit-taking by investors following a sharp price rally. Additional pressure on the market was exerted by ongoing geopolitical tensions: Iran stated it would “defend and respond as never before” to new threats from the US.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) grew by 0.03%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.34%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.51%, while the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.07%.

On Friday, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) declined to around 0.604 USD, but for the month, it maintained steady growth supported by increasing expectations of monetary policy tightening. The momentum for the “kiwi” was set by a series of strong macroeconomic data, specifically an unexpected acceleration of inflation last week, which boosted market confidence that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may move to raise rates toward the end of the year. Against this backdrop, the currency rose to a seven-month high on Thursday. Additional support came from fresh data showing consumer confidence in January reached its highest level since August 2021, as well as a trade surplus increase that exceeded expectations.

On Wednesday, the US stock indices traded mixed. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.03%, while the S&P 500 (US500) edged down by 0.01%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.32%. Investors adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of major tech earnings and the anticipated Fed decision to maintain interest rates. At its January 2026 meeting, the US Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged in the 3.50-3.75% range, fully meeting market expectations. The decision follows three consecutive cuts last year that brought borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. However, a split emerged within the Committee: Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller voted against the hold, advocating for an additional 25 bps cut. The regulator reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on incoming macroeconomic data, updated expectations, and the balance of risks. During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the US economy enters 2026 on a “solid footing,” stating that current rate levels are appropriate for making progress toward the Fed’s dual goals of price stability and maximum employment.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthened to 1.35 against the US dollar, reaching a sixteen-month high as markets reacted to the Bank of Canada’s latest monetary policy decision and signals. Although US tariffs and ongoing trade uncertainty continue to pressure the Canadian economy (dampening exports, investment, and labor reallocation), the Bank of Canada maintains a relatively constructive macroeconomic outlook. The regulator expects moderate GDP growth of approximately 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, estimating that excess capacity will generally offset tariff-related cost increases, keeping inflation near the 2% target.

European equity markets mostly declined on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.29%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) dropped by 1.06%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.10%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished down 0.52%. The primary pressure came from the luxury goods sector. LVMH shares plummeted 7.3% following weak financial results, dragging the entire segment down. CEO Bernard Arnault pointed to a challenging market environment and warned that 2026 would likely be a difficult year for the industry. Investors also remained cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement.
The Swiss franc (CHF) strengthened above 0.77 against the US dollar, reaching its highest level in ten years amid a global shift toward safe-haven assets and a simultaneous aversion to other traditional “haven” currencies. Despite the franc’s strength putting downward pressure on Switzerland’s already subdued inflation, expectations for further rate cuts from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) remain limited. The SNB’s policy rate has been held at 0% for six consecutive months, with central bank officials repeatedly emphasizing a cautious stance regarding a potential return to negative interest rate territory.

Platinum (XPT) prices rose toward $2,700 per ounce, returning to record levels fueled by persistent supply constraints and robust investment demand. An additional growth factor is the narrowness of the platinum market and its relatively low price compared to other precious metals, making even moderate physical purchases capable of significantly impacting price action. The structural annual supply deficit remains the key fundamental driver. Production in South Africa, which accounts for about 70% of global output, continues to face underinvestment, infrastructure disruptions, and logistical constraints. Supply risks could also intensify in Canada, another major producer, amid threats of 100% tariffs should trade agreements with China proceed.

WTI crude oil prices rose toward $64 per barrel, hitting a four-month high due to rising geopolitical risks following tough new US statements directed at Iran. President Donald Trump warned of possible further strikes while simultaneously calling for Tehran to negotiate, heightening market fears of potential disruptions to Iranian oil supplies. Fundamental data also supported the bullish move. According to the EIA report, US crude oil inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels last week, contrary to market expectations of a 1.75 million barrel increase, further strengthening the upside momentum.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.05%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) edged down 0.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) surged 2.58%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative result of 0.08%.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar (AUD) climbed above 0.70 USD, hitting a three-year high amid a gold rally and growing expectations for monetary policy tightening. All four of Australia’s major banks now consider an RBA hike likely, with market pricing reflecting a probability of over 70%. Rates are now fully priced at 3.85% by May and approximately 4.10% by September.

On Tuesday, the US stock indices traded mixed. By the end of the session, the Dow Jones (US30) declined by 0.83%, while the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.41%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.88%. Investors continued to build positions ahead of a busy week of corporate earnings and key policy decisions. With approximately three-quarters of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far exceeding expectations, the market focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s decision and the accompanying signals to be announced today.

Today, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will hold its scheduled monetary policy meeting. According to the consensus among major banks, the key interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.25%. The regulator has paused to assess the impact of US trade tariffs and the economic policies of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government on exports and the broader economic balance. Markets will closely watch the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) for signals regarding the resilience of Canadian economic growth and GDP amid intensifying global uncertainty, as well as hints at the future policy trajectory. A “hawkish” scenario that emphasizes inflationary risks and a strong labor market could boost the Canadian Dollar (CAD).

European equity markets mostly rose on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.15%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.27%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.70%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished at 0.58%. Investors adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Fed statement and US Big Tech earnings, while also digesting news regarding the EU-India trade deal. The automotive sector faced the most pressure: under the agreement, tariffs on cars were reduced from 110% to 10% for a quota of 250,000 vehicles per year. Consequently, shares of Porsche Automobil Holding, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and BMW lost between 0.6% and 2.6%.

On Wednesday, Silver prices (XAG) rose to $115 per ounce, approaching a new all-time high amid a sharp weakening of the US Dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets. The movement was catalyzed by statements from US President Donald Trump, who indicated he was not concerned about the falling Dollar, which has dropped to four-year lows. These comments bolstered expectations that the administration is willing to tolerate a weak Dollar to enhance the competitiveness of US exports. Further support for precious metals came from political uncertainty in Washington, including threats of new trade tariffs and escalating attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence, which are undermining investor confidence in the Greenback and US assets.

WTI Oil prices rose by approximately 2% on Tuesday, climbing toward the $62 per barrel level. Prices were supported by a severe winter storm in the US, which significantly disrupted oil production and refinery operations. Estimates suggest that US oil producers lost up to 2 million barrels per day over the weekend, roughly 15% of national output, as extreme frost strained energy infrastructure and power grids. Geopolitics also remained in focus, as the US deployed an aircraft carrier and escort ships to the Middle East, raising tension levels and supporting the risk premium in oil prices.

The US Natural Gas prices (XNG) declined by more than 7% to $6.27 per MMBtu following an unprecedented rally of approximately 117% over the previous five trading sessions. Warmer weather forecasts and early signs of production recovery following the massive disruptions triggered the correction.

Asian markets rose confidently yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.85%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.37%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 1.35%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.92%.

On Wednesday, the Australian Dollar (AUD) traded near 0.699 USD, holding close to a three-year high following the release of inflation data. According to the report, annual inflation in December accelerated to 3.8% from 3.4% in November, and the monthly figure rose by 1.0%, significantly exceeding expectations of 0.7%. Closely watched core inflation also remained stubbornly high: the annual figure rose to 3.4%, well above the RBA’s target range of 2-3%. Against this backdrop, markets swiftly repriced rate expectations, with the probability of a 25 bps hike at the February 3rd RBA meeting rising to 72%, up from 63% before the inflation data release.

On Monday, the US stock indices posted solid gains. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.64%, while the S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.50%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.43%. Growth was driven primarily by the technology and communication services sectors: shares of Apple, Meta, and Microsoft strengthened significantly ahead of their financial results, whereas the consumer goods sector lagged due to a decline in Tesla stock. Market focus shifted to Wednesday’s Fed meeting and speculation about the potential appointment of a new Chairman, as well as the risk of a renewed US government “shutdown” over budget disagreements. Additional uncertainty was fueled by trade threats against Canada over its potential rapprochement with China, despite Ottawa’s efforts to de-escalate the situation.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) stabilized near 1.37 against the US dollar, halting its rally near monthly highs amid a balance of supporting and restraining factors. On the one hand, the currency continues to be supported by rising oil prices, driven by a supply crunch in high-sulfur fuel amid slowing exports from Russia, disruptions in key US regions, and lower shipments from Venezuela to China. On the other hand, further upside potential is limited by rising trade and geopolitical uncertainty. Pressure on CAD resumed following President Trump’s threats to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian imports should Ottawa pursue closer ties with China.

European equity markets mostly rose on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) climbed 0.13%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.15%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.78%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished 0.05% yesterday. Despite recent easing of concerns about US rhetoric on Greenland and the risk of a transatlantic trade conflict, the broader geopolitical backdrop remained tense. Macro data from Germany provided no surprises: the Ifo Business Climate Index remained at 87.6 in January, missing expectations for growth.

On Tuesday, Silver (XAG) prices surged by more than 6%, climbing above $110 per ounce and continuing a record-breaking rally. The spike was driven by a combination of geopolitical and trade risks, alongside a reallocation of capital from sovereign bonds and currencies into precious metals as safe-haven assets. Market tension was further exacerbated by President Donald Trump’s statements about a possible tariff hike on South Korean goods from 15% to 25% due to delays in ratifying a trade agreement.

Palladium (XPD) prices rose above $2,000 per ounce, reaching a three-year high as supply concerns intensified due to heightened geopolitical risks. The primary catalyst was reports of potential 100% tariffs on Canadian goods in the event of its trade rapprochement with China, fueling fears of supply disruptions to North America, given Canada’s role as a major global producer. Additional market support came from a UBS forecast revision that raised price targets, citing steady investment inflows. Demand also strengthened in China following the launch of yuan-denominated platinum futures in Guangzhou, boosting interest in platinum group metals.

The US Natural Gas (XNG) prices soared by approximately 20%, exceeding $6.3 per MMBtu, marking a high since December 2022 and continuing an extreme rally driven by weather factors. Since the beginning of last week, the increase has exceeded 90%, following a record jump of nearly 70%, which was the strongest weekly gain since records began in 1990. Extreme cold has simultaneously hit supply and sharply increased demand for heating and electricity. Frigid weather knocked out about 10% of US gas production capacity, with average January production falling from December records and daily output dropping to two-year lows. Market focus remains on the duration of these production disruptions, as their prolonged nature could lead to further price increases.

Asian markets traded with mixed results yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.79%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.34%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.06%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a result of 0.13%. On Tuesday morning, Hong Kong and Chinese stocks continued to rise. Support was broad-based, with the largest contribution coming from the financial sector, which grew by about 2% after Beijing announced intentions to deepen the integration of mainland Chinese and Hong Kong financial markets. Further positive sentiment was provided by Chinese macro data: industrial profits in 2025 grew by 0.6% year-on-year, a notable acceleration from the 0.1% growth recorded during the January-November period.