InvestMacro

On Friday, US stock markets generally ended the session without a clear direction amid mixed geopolitical signals, uncertainty surrounding future Federal Reserve policy, and the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season. By Friday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) declined by 0.17% (-0.28% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) shed 0.06% (-0.06% for the week). The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.07% lower (-0.34% for the week). Investors also assessed political news: President Donald Trump signaled that he might keep economic advisor Kevin Hassett in his current role rather than nominating him as Fed Chair, fueling speculation that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh could be the frontrunner for the position.

Equity markets in Europe mostly fell on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.22% (+0.19% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.65% (-1.00% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.39% (+0.94% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at negative 0.04% (+1.09% for the week). Attention was also on macroeconomic data: German inflation in December 2025 was confirmed at 1.8%, dropping from 2.3% in November and falling below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since September 2024.

European stock markets opened sharply lower on Monday following the escalation of trade risks after US President Donald Trump’s statements regarding potential new tariffs on goods from eight European countries. The measure is viewed as a leverage tool to pressure these nations into supporting the Greenland acquisition plan. According to Trump, NATO allies opposing the plan, including Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany, the UK, France, and the Netherlands, could face 10% tariffs as early as February 1, rising to 25% in June if no agreement is reached. In response, European leaders have begun discussing potential countermeasures, including reviving last year’s initiatives to impose tariffs on American goods, while French President Emmanuel Macron reportedly called for the activation of the EU’s anti-coercion instrument.

On Friday, silver (XAG) fell by more than 4%, dropping below $88.7 per ounce, continuing a sharp decline following high volatility in the previous session as the US decision to refrain from imposing tariffs on critical minerals removed a key market driver. Earlier in the week, threats of potential US import tariffs triggered a rapid rally in commodities: silver and other metals hit record levels as traders rushed to direct shipments to the US before potential restrictions took effect.
WTI crude oil prices traded near $59.3 per barrel on Monday following a fourth consecutive week of gains, as the market entered a consolidation phase amid easing geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran. Supply disruption concerns moderated after US President Donald Trump suggested a potential delay in military action last week, following Tehran’s pledge to halt the execution of protesters. However, renewed trade conflict risks remain a significant source of uncertainty for global energy demand. Over the weekend, the US President announced plans to impose 10% tariffs on goods from eight European countries effective February 1, with the potential to increase the rate to 25% by June, absent an agreement on the “purchase of Greenland.” These developments have intensified fears of a global economic slowdown and subsequent downward pressure on oil demand.

Asian markets traded with mixed results last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 5.00%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.54%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.77%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a 5-day positive result of 1.95%.

On Monday, the offshore yuan strengthened to approximately 6.96 per dollar, reaching a 32-month high supported by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), which set its strongest daily fixing in over two years. This factor outweighed mixed economic data: China’s Q4 GDP growth slowed to 4.5% from 4.8% in Q3, the weakest pace in nearly three years, yet still exceeded market expectations of 4.4%. For the full year, the economy grew by 5%, meeting the government’s target and matching 2024 growth rates, largely due to a record trade surplus as robust exports to non-US markets offset pressure from American tariffs. Meanwhile, December statistics pointed to weakening domestic consumption and an accelerating decline in investment, while industrial production showed improvement.

The US stocks rose firmly on Thursday, driven by a sharp improvement in sentiment within the technology sector and a generally positive flow of macroeconomic data. At the close of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.60%. The S&P 500 (US500) rose by 0.26%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) finished higher by 0.26%. The key market driver was the earnings report from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which bolstered investor confidence in the long-term AI-related investment cycle. The company reported a 35% increase in fourth-quarter profit and provided a more optimistic revenue prognosis than expected. This triggered a broad rally in semiconductor stocks and related equipment manufacturers, restoring risk appetite across the entire tech sector.

In geopolitics, the tone became less strained following a softening of US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric regarding Iran. However, uncertainty persists due to his statements regarding Greenland.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to 1.39 against the US dollar, remaining in a tight range near early December lows, as a strengthening US dollar and falling oil prices outweighed relatively stable domestic factors. The easing of President Trump’s rhetoric on Iran led to a reduction in the geopolitical premium in oil, putting pressure on commodity prices and weakening CAD support from trade conditions. Domestically, pressure on the currency persists due to a sluggish labor market: the unemployment rate remains around 6.8%, anchoring the Bank of Canada’s neutral stance and limiting the potential for policy tightening to support the currency.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened to 17.65 per US dollar, its highest level since July 2024, thanks to a renewed influx of capital through carry-trade operations, driven by Mexico’s persistently high real interest rates. Banxico slowed its rate-cutting cycle, holding the benchmark rate at 7% and signaling the need for caution amid persistent core inflation. This maintains one of the widest real yield differentials in emerging markets, supporting capital inflows into peso-denominated fixed-income assets.

European equity markets traded without a unified trend on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.26%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.21%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.30%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished up 0.54%. Investors reacted positively to a combination of encouraging macroeconomic data and corporate news while accounting for the geopolitical backdrop. The market was supported by fresh data indicating that the German economy returned to moderate growth in 2025, expanding by 0.2% after two years of decline. Additional momentum came from the technology sector amid renewed AI optimism following TSMC’s record results, which improved sentiment in the high-tech and industrial segments.

WTI crude oil prices collapsed nearly 5% on Thursday to $59 per barrel, marking the sharpest one-day drop since October as geopolitical risks surrounding Iran receded. The primary trigger was US President Donald Trump’s statement that he had received assurances from the Iranian side regarding the cessation of protester killings. This dampened expectations of immediate US military intervention and sharply reduced fears of disruptions to Iranian production and strategic supply routes. Additionally, Trump noted his belief that Venezuela should remain in OPEC, which markets interpreted as a signal to maintain the status quo on supply rather than pursue sharp cuts.

Asian markets traded without a unified trend yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.42%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 0.51%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) shed 0.28%, while the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.47%.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) strengthened to the 0.575 level on Friday and is heading for a weekly gain following a series of positive signals from the real sector. The BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) rose for the sixth consecutive month in December, accelerating to its highest levels in four years. The market has ramped up expectations for policy tightening later this year: the probability of a rate hike in September is estimated at approximately 57%, with such a move almost fully priced in by October. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) February meeting is still perceived as a non-event, with the rate expected to remain at 2.25%.

The Malaysian economy’s growth, according to preliminary estimates, accelerated to 5.7% year-on-year in Q4 2025, compared to 5.2% in the previous quarter, marking the fastest pace since Q2 2024. The key driver was a recovery in the industrial sector. On a quarterly basis, GDP increased by 3.0% following an upwardly revised 5.4% jump in Q3 – the highest since late 2021. For the full year 2025, the economy grew by 4.9%, slowing only slightly from 5.1% the previous year.

At the close of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) declined by -0.09%. The S&P 500 (US500) shed -0.53%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by -1.00%. The US stock markets continued their decline on Wednesday, retreating from recent record highs amid mixed corporate reports, conflicting macro data, and rising geopolitical tensions. The technology sector faced the most significant pressure: semiconductor stocks faced a sell-off following reports of restrictions from China, which notably soured overall market sentiment. Macroeconomic statistics failed to pivot the market: moderate inflation and stable consumption only confirmed expectations that the Fed’s current policy will remain unchanged, failing to offset the impact of corporate and political factors. Wells Fargo shares fell by -3.9% after the company missed profit and revenue forecasts. Bank of America shares declined -3.6% despite beating expectations, while Citigroup dropped -0.3% after posting stronger-than-expected earnings and revenue figures. JPMorgan shares fell -0.3%, extending a -4.1% slide from the previous session following disappointing quarterly results.

European equity markets traded without a unified trend on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE40) fell -0.53%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down -0.19%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by +0.05%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished Wednesday up +0.46%.

On Thursday, silver prices (XAG) dropped sharply by approximately -6%, falling below $88 per ounce and retreating from recently reached all-time highs. Pressure on prices emerged after US President Donald Trump delayed the introduction of new import duties on critical minerals, reducing short-term geopolitical and trade risks. An additional factor in the decline was the weakened appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets. Demand waned following Trump’s statements that he had received assurances regarding the cessation of executions of protesters in Iran, which eased fears of potential US military intervention and regional escalation.

WTI crude oil prices declined by approximately -3% on Thursday to around $60 per barrel, snapping a five-session winning streak. The correction was triggered by easing geopolitical tensions following comments from US President Donald Trump, which lowered expectations of an imminent military strike on Iran. Additional pressure came from EIA data showing a rise in US crude oil and gasoline inventories last week, although distillate stocks decreased. Together, these factors intensified profit-taking and accelerated the reversal of quotes after a prolonged rally.

US natural gas prices (XNG) plunged by -10%, approaching their lowest levels since October 17, due to a reduction in gas flows to LNG export facilities. Gas deliveries to LNG plants on Wednesday dropped to a two-month low of 17.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) due to reduced supplies to Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi plant and the Freeport LNG plant.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained +1.48%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by -1.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed +0.56%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of +0.14% yesterday. On Wednesday, PRC regulators raised minimum margin requirements for stock transactions from 80% to 100%, effectively restricting leverage and highlighting Beijing’s commitment to curbing excessive speculation and systemic risks in capital markets.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar (AUD) traded virtually unchanged near $0.668, holding close to a two-week low. Australian consumer inflation expectations remained at a high level of 4.6% in January, virtually unchanged from December, indicating persistent concerns over rising prices. Nevertheless, markets remain skeptical of imminent policy tightening: the probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike in February is estimated at approximately 27%, while it rises to about 76% by May.

The US stock indices managed to recover from an early-morning sell-off on Monday, ending the session higher and setting new records. By the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.17%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.16%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed up 0.08%. Initial pressure on the market was linked to reports of a criminal investigation launched against Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which heightened concerns regarding political pressure on the regulator. The banking sector was most notably affected, with shares of major players declining amid discussions of an initiative to cap credit card interest rates. Nevertheless, overall investor sentiment remained positive due to expectations of strong Q4 corporate earnings, primarily from major banks, and hopes for relatively soft inflation data, which supported risk appetite.

On Monday evening, Trump announced the imposition of 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran, following repeated warnings of potential military action amid mass protests in the country.

The Mexican peso strengthened to 17.91 per dollar, reaching its highest level since July 2024, driven by a combination of external and internal factors. Support for the peso was provided by the Bank of Mexico’s balanced stance. Following the December rate cut, the regulator emphasized that future decisions depend on macroeconomic data, noting that underlying inflationary pressures persist and require caution. The absence of signals regarding rapid policy easing helped stabilize market expectations and maintain the appeal of the Mexican currency.

European equity markets mostly rose on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) climbed 0.57%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.04%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.14%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the day up 0.16%. Large companies in the industrial and financial services sectors continued their positive momentum: Siemens, Airbus, and Deutsche Bank gained between 1% and 4%. Technology stocks also largely rose, despite ongoing skepticism regarding the fundamental profitability of artificial intelligence amid rising capital expenditures.

The Swiss franc (CHF) is holding near highs seen in the early 2010s due to increased demand for safe-haven currencies. The franc was supported by escalating geopolitical tensions, including harsh mutual warnings between the US and Iran, as well as growing uncertainty surrounding international security following discussions of a potential increase in NATO’s military presence in Greenland. On the domestic front, Switzerland’s macroeconomic situation remains stable: recent inflation data reinforced expectations that the SNB will keep rates at zero in the near term, which did not prevent the franc from maintaining its status as one of the key defensive assets.

WTI crude oil prices recovered intraday losses on Monday to close higher. Prices were supported by escalating tensions in Iran, where large-scale protests increased the risk of disruptions in oil production and exports, despite government claims of a stabilizing situation. Potential strikes and threats to energy infrastructure maintain high market volatility. Supply concerns partially offset expectations of increased production in Venezuela following political changes and preparations for the resumption of exports.

US natural gas prices (XNG) rose by more than 5%, climbing above $3.35 per MMBtu and recovering from a drop to multi-week lows. The recovery was triggered by updated weather prognoses indicating the approach of colder temperatures. Market balance factors also provided support. Gas exports remain near record levels, while domestic production edged down from its December peak. An additional positive signal was a deeper-than-seasonal-norm reduction in inventories, which strengthened investor confidence in the improving fundamental market picture.

Asian markets traded higher yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.61%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.11%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 1.44%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.48%.

In Australia, the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 1.7% month-on-month in January 2026 to a three-month low of 92.9 points, amid persistent concerns over interest rate hikes. Commodity-related stocks led the gains, as prices surged due to tensions surrounding Iran and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence.

By the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.55%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.01%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.44%. Investors shifted their focus from technology stocks toward cyclical and defense companies amid ongoing uncertainty regarding the scale and timing of Federal Reserve policy easing, as well as increased attention to the efficiency of capital expenditures in the field of artificial intelligence. The market was pressured by shares of large technology companies focused on AI infrastructure: Nvidia lost 2.2%, Broadcom 3.2%, Micron 3.7%, and Oracle 1.7%. At the same time, the defense sector demonstrated steady growth following President Donald Trump’s statements regarding plans to increase the US military budget to 1.5 trillion dollars in 2027.

According to a consumer expectations survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US rose to 3.4% in December 2025, compared to 3.2% in each of the two previous months. In contrast, inflation expectations for three and five years remained unchanged at 3.0%, indicating stable long-term inflation projections. Uncertainty regarding inflation increased across all horizons, pointing to a growing divergence in expectations regarding future prices.

The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.02%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed with an increase of 0.12%, the Spanish Index IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.33%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed lower at 0.04%. European stock markets declined moderately on Thursday, taking a pause after hitting record levels earlier in the week. Sentiment was pressured by uncertainty surrounding the future course of ECB policy and persistent geopolitical risks.

On Thursday, WTI crude oil prices rose by more than 4% and exceeded the 58 dollars per barrel mark, recovering losses from the two previous sessions as the market reassessed short-term supply risks amid a more resilient physical balance in the US. Prices were supported by data showing a 3.8 million barrel reduction in US oil inventories, which significantly exceeded expectations and refuted prognoses of inventory growth, easing concerns about a global supply glut. The rise in quotes was partially limited by an increase in inventories at Cushing, as well as a sharp rise in gasoline and distillate inventories; however, weaker US labor market data supported demand expectations by strengthening the outlook for a more dovish Fed policy.

On Thursday, silver dropped by 5% to 74 dollars per ounce, marking its second consecutive session of decline as investors took a wait-and-see approach ahead of the annual rebalancing of key commodity indices. This is expected to lead to the sale of billions of dollars worth of futures contracts in the coming days. Additional pressure on quotes was exerted by mechanical selling from passive funds adjusting their portfolios to new index weights following silver’s exceptional rally last year. These technical factors intensified the short-term decline despite persistent fundamental demand drivers.

Natural gas prices in the US decreased by approximately 3% to 3.42 dollars/MMBtu amid a moderate increase in daily production and expectations of mild weather for the next two weeks, which is anticipated to limit heating demand below seasonal norms. Although prognosists allow for a brief cold snap and a temporary increase in consumption at the end of January, overall temperatures across the country are predicted to remain above normal values until January 23. Meanwhile, EIA data showed higher actual demand: for the week ending January 2, 114 billion cubic feet of gas were withdrawn from storage, which significantly exceeds both last year’s figure and the five-year average.

Asian markets mostly declined yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.63%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped by 1.45%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 1.17%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.29% yesterday. On Friday, Chinese stock markets resumed their growth. In December, consumer price inflation accelerated to its highest level in nearly three years, primarily due to rising food prices, which partially masked persistent underlying deflationary pressure in the economy. At the same time, producer prices declined for the 39th consecutive month, although the rate of decline was the smallest since August 2024, which was perceived by the market as a sign of stabilization.

The unemployment rate in Malaysia in November 2025 decreased to 2.9% compared to 3.2% a year earlier, reaching its lowest level since November 2014. The number of unemployed persons decreased by 4.3% in annual terms to 518.4 thousand, marking a nearly six-year low, while employment rose by 3.1% and reached a record 17.09 million people.

On Wednesday, the US stocks closed mixed as investors balanced contradictory macroeconomic signals against expectations of a possible Fed policy easing. By the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.94%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) dropped by 0.34%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.16%. JOLTS data indicated a notable contraction in job openings and a cooling of labor demand, while the ADP report showed a moderate recovery in private sector hiring, and the growth in the ISM Services PMI confirmed a scenario of a slowing but still resilient economy. At the corporate level, the market was pressured by a decline in banking stocks: JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America shares fell by more than 2%, which was one of the reasons for the Dow’s weakness. At the same time, the technology sector appeared more stable – NVIDIA rose by 1%, and Alphabet gained 2.5%, supporting the Nasdaq.

European stock indices ended Wednesday’s trading with slight declines, taking a pause after the recent strong rally amid the ongoing reassessment of the ECB’s monetary policy prospects. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.92%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed with a decrease of 0.04%, the Spanish Index IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.29%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at negative 0.74%. Recent data showed that Eurozone inflation slowed to 2% in December, as expected, while core inflation fell more than projections, strengthening expectations that the ECB may proceed with rate cuts during the year. Defense companies were among the top gainers amid rising geopolitical tensions related to White House statements regarding Greenland and the US seizure of a Russian tanker that violated the blockade of Venezuela.

On Thursday, silver dropped below the $77 per ounce mark, continuing a correction after the recent rapid rally to historic highs. The weakening of bullish momentum coincided with a strengthening of the US dollar and mixed macroeconomic signals from the US, which failed to provide markets with a clear direction regarding the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Currently, market participants estimate the probability of the Fed holding rates steady at the next meeting at nearly 90%, although expectations for several rate cuts in the second half of the year remain priced in. This combination is curbing demand for precious metals in the short term, increasing investors’ inclination to take profits after the sharp rise in prices.

The US natural gas prices rose by more than 4% to $3.50 per MMBtu, rebounding from a 10-week low reached on January 6, amid a reduction in production and a revision of weather prognoses toward colder conditions and increased heating demand. Average production in the Lower 48 states in early January decreased to 109.0 billion cubic feet per day from the December record of 109.7 billion. Additional market support came from a rise in LNG exports: deliveries to the eight largest export terminals increased to a record 18.6 billion cubic feet per day.

Asian markets traded without a unified dynamic yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.06%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.45%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.94%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.15%. At the start of Thursday’s trading, Hong Kong stocks declined by 1.4%, continuing a fall for the second consecutive session. Pressure was intensified by profit-taking after the market reached a seven-week high earlier in the week, as well as growing caution ahead of Friday’s release of December inflation data from China (CPI and PPI). An additional negative factor was the geopolitical tension following Beijing’s decision to ban the export of dual-use goods to Japan in response to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s statements on Taiwan. However, the decline was partially mitigated by optimistic expectations from Goldman Sachs, which predicts steady growth for Chinese stocks this year due to increased corporate profits related to the development of artificial intelligence.

The New Zealand dollar held near the $0.576 mark, remaining in a sideways range throughout the week as investors balance external risks and domestic monetary expectations. On the external side, sentiment continues to be pressured by geopolitical uncertainty: political events in Venezuela following the removal of Nicolás Maduro, as well as rising tension between China and Japan, maintain a cautious approach to risk currencies, including the NZD. In the domestic context, the position of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) remains a key anchor for the exchange rate. The regulator signaled that the easing cycle, in which rates were cut by 225 bps, likely concluded last year, while also dispelling expectations for an imminent policy tightening.

Following Monday’s results, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.23%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.64%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.69%. On Monday, the rally in the US stock market continued, with the energy and financial sectors providing the main support to the indices. Investors perceived the US arrest of the Venezuelan leader more as a potential opportunity for future investment in the country’s oil industry than as a factor for immediate geopolitical escalation. Chevron shares jumped more than 5% due to expectations of the company expanding its presence in Venezuela, while oil refining companies rose on prospects of increased heavy oil supply.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to 1.38 per US dollar, losing some of its recent gains after reaching its highest level since July. Pressure on the currency intensified due to the strengthening of the dollar caused by the geopolitical situation, specifically the US seizure of the President of Venezuela, which triggered an increase in demand for the dollar and raised concerns about the prospects for Venezuelan oil. Speculation regarding production and an uneven market reaction strengthened doubts about the stability of oil prices, which is a key support factor for the Canadian currency. Furthermore, the slowdown in economic growth in Canada in Q4 weakened the arguments for tight monetary policy, and global oil market expectations for 2026 suggest a supply surplus and moderate demand, further limiting the potential for the Canadian dollar to strengthen.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to a level above 18 per US dollar, as the sharp rise in the dollar caused by US military actions in Venezuela outweighed domestic currency support factors. The increased demand for the dollar triggered pressure on regional currencies, and the easing of the Bank of Mexico policy in late December reduced the yield advantage that had previously supported the peso after strong growth in 2025. This pressure is partially offset by an improvement in the external position and a transition to a current account surplus in mid-2025, which creates a floor for a sharper devaluation.
Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 1.34%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed with an increase of 0.20%, the Spanish Index IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.70%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at a positive 0.54%.

The Swiss franc (CHF) weakened to a level of around 0.795 per US dollar, remaining close to highs not seen since 2011, amid rising geopolitical tensions following the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Uncertainty in the global economy related to US trade policy, as well as expectations of further interest rate cuts, intensified demand for safe-haven assets despite the weakness of the franc. Investors remain focused on the upcoming domestic inflation data to be released on January 8: a 0.1% decrease in the Consumer Price Index is expected in monthly terms, with a growth of only 0.1% in annual terms. In December, the Swiss National Bank kept rates at 0%, and most analysts do not expect changes in 2026.

Palladium prices (XPD) rose above 1720 dollars per ounce, approaching a weekly high, amid rising geopolitical tensions in Venezuela following the US capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. The events stimulated demand for precious metals as haven assets and also supported palladium due to its key role in catalytic converters for gasoline engines. Demand is also supported by expectations of the EU easing the ban on internal combustion engines by 2035 while maintaining strict environmental standards, and the launch of palladium futures in China, which increases liquidity and provides hedging opportunities.
Asian markets rose in synchronization yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.97%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.57%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.03%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.01%.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened to 0.672 dollars, remaining near its highest level since October 2024, amid an improvement in global risk sentiment and a weakening of the US dollar. Investor attention is shifting to the publication of Australian inflation data for November, which is expected on Wednesday and is projected to show a moderate slowdown in price pressure. This data could prove key for the next steps of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which had previously allowed for the possibility of a rate hike if inflationary risks persist.