Archive for Economics & Fundamentals – Page 107

The Bank of Japan will follow a soft policy course. Most company reports missed estimates

By JustMarkets 

At the close of the US stock market on Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.33%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.60%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.80% yesterday. Sentiment for risky assets, including stocks, worsened due to recent economic data showing further weakness in manufacturing and an increase in jobless claims. The weaker data exacerbated fears of a deeper economic slowdown at a time when the Federal Reserve continues to be inclined to raise rates further.

FOMC spokeswoman Mester indicated yesterday that she was pleased with the progress made but pointed out that inflation remains too high. In Mester’s view, interest rates should move a little further into restriction territory, and the degree of further tightening depends on economic and monetary policy assessments. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker warned Thursday that US interest rates are likely to rise further and stay that way longer, even if economic activity weakens. The current probability of a 0.25% rate hike at the next Fed meeting is 81%.

Tesla (TSLA) stock is down by 11% after the electric carmaker reported earnings that fell short of Wall Street expectations. The company’s margins declined because of a recent string of price cuts. Concerns about margins intensified after CEO Elon Musk announced further spending cuts to boost sales. Shares of AT&T Inc (T), a major component of the Dow Jones Index, fell more than 10% amid concerns about the company’s ability to meet its forecasts and mixed quarterly results suggesting earnings missed estimates.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.62%, French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.14%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.46%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed Thursday up by 0.05%.

ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted that the ECB would not stop fighting inflation. The March minutes of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting indicated that policymakers have not yet decided on the size of the rate hike at the next meeting, but given the latest Eurozone inflation data, there is a high probability that the ECB will raise the rate by 0.5% in May.

The French government has outlined a plan to accelerate debt reduction, which will require the government to make unpopular spending cuts. The budget deficit will be smaller than previously forecast. But it should be noted that raising the minimum retirement age by two years has greatly reduced support for the current government and strengthened opposition parties that reject budget cuts.

Oil prices fell about $2 a barrel to their lowest level since late March. Fears that a possible recession could reduce demand for fuel, as well as an increase in gasoline inventories in the US, are negative factors for oil prices.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.18%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.85%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.14% on the day, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) added 0.03%, while Australian S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was down by 0.04% on the day.

The Bank of Japan is eyeing the idea of changing its controversial bond yield control policy later this year but is likely to leave policy unchanged at next week’s meeting as it awaits new evidence of sustained wage growth. Kazuo Ueda will hold his first meeting as governor on April 27-28, and his appointment has heightened expectations that the bank will begin to roll back its ultra-soft settings.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,129.79 −24.73 (−0.60%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,786.62 −110.39 (−0.33%)

DAX (DE40) 15,795.97 −99.23 (−0.62%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,902.61 +3.84 (+0.049%)

USD Index 101.82 −0.15 −0.15%

Important events for today:
  • – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Mobilize private finance to fight rising global food insecurity: deVere CEO

By George Prior

The war between Russia and Ukraine and the impact it has on global grain exports – which feeds billions each day – highlight the urgent need for mobilizing private funding to ensure food security, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organisations.

The call-to-action from deVere Group’s chief executive, Nigel Green, comes as Citi Research reveals that Ukrainian grain harvests and exports this year could be down as much as 50% on pre-war levels.

Meanwhile, the April 2023 edition of the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor shows the gradual decline over the past 10 months of global grain and oilseed prices to levels prior to the war in Ukraine.

Both Russia and Ukraine were among the top producers of grains in the world before the start of the war in February 2022.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and the pandemic before it – has underscored the fragility and complexity of the world’s food supply on which billions of people live every day,” says Nigel Green.

“We expect that pressure will grow on the global food supply in the coming decade due to population growth, rising incomes in developing countries, disruption triggered by heightening geopolitical tensions, social unrest, labour shortages, soaring fertilizer costs, conflicting trade policies, and climate change.

“The current food crisis is, we believe, set to become the worst in a decade, meaning years of progress against poverty and hunger are being wiped out.”

He affirms: “We expect that over the next five years, rising food insecurity is likely to become a defining issue of our time.”

With so many variables, degrees of severity, and situations developing unexpectedly, governments alone will not be able combat the worst effects of human-triggered climate change.

“Governments are best-positioned to develop, implement and manage policy, incentives, standards, metrics and regulations. And, yes, they must also provide top-level funding,” says the deVere Group CEO.

“But due to the tens of trillions likely to be needed for structural changes to global food systems, there will remain a major funding gap if we rely solely on the public sector.”

This is especially true as governments are still stretched with the unprecedented financial fallout of the Covid pandemic, for which no country was prepared and that upended economies globally.

Therefore, says Nigel Green, it is “essential to enable, unlock and mobilize private capital as a matter of urgency.”

To do this, the deVere CEO suggests that we need “cooperation between financial advisories, insurance firms, banks, wealth and asset managers, investment companies, fintech groups, banks and auditors, amongst others, to help unlock and mobilize the trillions of dollars of private finance that is urgently required.

“Without this, the level of funds required will simply not be there.”

The World Food Programme on its website notes that, “The scale of the current global hunger and malnutrition crisis is enormous, with an expected 345.2 million people projected to be food insecure – more than double the number in 2020.  This constitutes a staggering rise of 200 million people compared to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels… Unless the necessary resources are made available, lost lives and the reversal of hard-earned development gains will be the price to pay.”

Nigel Green concludes: “A combination of factors including war, economic upheaval and climate change means that urgent private finance inflows are essential to ensure greater levels of global food security and stability.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

ECB, Bank of England (BoE), and Swiss National Bank (SNB) intend to keep raising interest rates

By JustMarkets

At Wednesday’s US stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.23%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.35%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.03% yesterday. Stock indices remain under pressure due to recession fears and rate hikes. At the same time, the reporting season so far shows no signs of confidence.

On Wednesday, Tesla (TSLA) reported first-quarter earnings below Wall Street estimates. The company’s stock was down by 2%. A drop in semiconductor stocks also hurt technology companies, as ASML Holdings (ASML) shares fell by 3% after reporting a 46% drop in first-quarter net orders as buying demand remains low. Meta Platforms Inc (META), though not reporting yesterday, saw its shares fall by 1% after the company announced a new wave of job cuts as the drive to cut costs continues.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up. Germany’s DAX (DE30) gained 0.08%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.21%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.77%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 0.13% on Wednesday.

ECB spokesman Lane said yesterday that if inflation in the Eurozone remains stable, he will vote for further rate hikes. These comments coincide with other comments from ECB officials. The inflation rate in the Eurozone was unchanged compared to the previous month. The consumer price index amounted to 6.9% year-on-year, while core inflation remained at 5.7%. Such data increases the likelihood of an additional 0.5% rate hike at the next ECB meeting.

Inflation in the UK has been above 10% for the seventh month in a row. This has been an important week for the UK economy, starting with yesterday’s employment report, which confirmed the difficult situation in the labor market in the UK. Against this backdrop of the labor market and inflation data, analysts predict that the Bank of England will raise interest rates by another 25 bps next month with almost 100% probability.

The Swiss National Bank’s recent 0.5% interest rate hike is still slowing inflation to just 2% in forecasts, said Andrea Maechler from the SNB, suggesting that additional tightening may be needed. Economists now expect the SNB to give another quarter-point hike, bringing the discount rate to 1.75%.

Crude oil inventories in the United States declined last week at the fastest pace in three weeks. But that hasn’t helped oil prices, which have already lost 4% since the start of this week. There are signs of a significant weakening in global demand for fuel, along with a drop in manufacturing activity. Normally oil prices rise in the run-up to summer on the back of increased travel demand, but at the moment, this is not happening.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.18%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was 0.74% lower, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.37% by the end of the day, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) was 0.23% lower, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was 0.07% positive by Wednesday. Asian indices continue to decline, following weakness from Wall Street, as worries about rising interest rates and slowing economic growth made traders cautious about risk-oriented assets.

The People’s Bank of China kept interest rates at 3.65%. But Chinese indices did not get much support for this decision.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,154.52 −0.35 (−0.0084%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,897.01 −79.62 (−0.23%)

DAX (DE40) 15,895.20 +12.53 (+0.079%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,898.77 −10.67 (−0.13%)

USD Index 101.95 +0.20 +0.20%

Important events for today:
  • – New Zealand Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Williams Speaks at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – China Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 04:15 (GMT+3);
  • – German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Account Monetary Policy Meeting at 14:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Waller Speaks at 15:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 18:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 22:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The Bank of Japan intends to keep its monetary policy soft. In the US, the reporting season is gaining momentum

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.03% at Tuesday’s close of the stock market, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.09%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.04% yesterday. Concerns about interest rate hikes have returned to the markets in recent sessions as hawkish signals from Fed officials and signs of some resilience in the US economy have created uncertainty about when the Fed will suspend its rate hike cycle. Traders expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points at its May meeting and bring the rate to a restrictive level of 5.25%.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) shares fell more than 1% after the broker reported first-quarter earnings that fell short of expectations triggered by the sale of consumer loans at its Marcus consumer business. Bank of America (BAC) reported increases in both the top and bottom lines, driven by a 25% jump in net interest income. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported better-than-expected quarterly results but also noted that lawsuits indicating that its talcum powder products cause cancer persists. JNJ shares fell more than 2%. Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) also reported first-quarter results that beat expectations thanks to improvements in its supply chain, sending its shares up more than 2%. Netflix Inc (NFLX) posted a weak report. The company added fewer new customers than expected in the first quarter and delivered below analysts’ estimates for the next three months. Netflix shares initially fell by 11% in after-hours trading after the report was released but then quickly recovered.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.59%, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.47%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.41%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed on Tuesday up by 0.38%.

UK labor market data came out mixed. Estimated vacancies fell by 47,000 in the last quarter. The average pay index came out better than forecasts, but jobless claims rose by 28.2k with an expected 2.5k decline. The unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.8%. Money market pricing in the May meeting now suggests an 83% probability of a 25 bps interest rate hike by the Bank of England. If today’s UK inflation figures do not show a slowdown, the Bank of England is likely to remain firm on another rate hike.

US oil inventories declined by 2.7 mln barrels last week. Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday as upbeat oil consumption data from China (the biggest importer) offset concerns that a possible interest rate hike in the US could slow growth.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.51%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.53%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.63%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) fell by 0.26%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended Tuesday negative by 0.29%. Rising interest rates are unfavorable for Asian indices as higher yields undermine the attractiveness of high-risk assets and also limit foreign capital inflows into the region.

Japan’s major manufacturers remain pessimistic for the fourth consecutive month as concerns over Western banks have exacerbated the slowdown in global growth, dampening prospects for an export-driven recovery. A Tankan survey showed that the economy is on track to recover from the coronavirus, supported by service sector companies, although the slowdown has hit manufacturers in global demand.

Japan will continue on course to meet the central bank’s 2% inflation target by continuing to ease monetary policy, even though it may take time, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday, outlining his stance on maintaining soft conditions.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,154.87 +3.55 (+0.086%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,976.63 −10.55 (−0.031%)

DAX (DE40) 15,882.67 +93.14 (+0.59%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,909.44 +29.93 (+0.38%)

USD Index 101.74 -0.37 -0.36%

Important events for today:
  • – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Markets Digest China Data; Focus Remains On Earnings

By ForexTime

Asian shares finished mixed on Tuesday, shrugging off the initial boost from China’s better-than-expected Q1 GDP as signs of an uneven recovery stalled risk taking. The world’s second largest economy smashed forecasts by expanding 4.5% in the first quarter from a year earlier. However, the disappointing readings on industrial production suggested that weakness still lingered in the economy, even as retail sales surged. European markets edged higher despite the caution from Asia as investors focused on the global economic outlook and corporate earnings. Wall Street could be injected with fresh volatility this afternoon, especially when considering the slate of earnings from big banks and companies.

The British pound has appreciated against most G10 currencies this morning after data showed wages rose more than expected in February. This development has reinforced expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates in May, with traders currently pricing in a 90% probability of a 25-basis point hike.  Sterling is currently up 0.5% against the dollar today with prices pressing against 1.2445 weekly resistance. A break above this point could encourage a move back towards the 1.2500 region.

What next for the dollar?

Shifting expectations around future Fed policy tightening continue to heavily influence the dollar.

Expectations for a 25-basis point rate rise in May have risen to 86%, but the greenback has weakened against most G10 currencies this month with Fed official’s speeches and key US economic data this week impacting its short to medium-term outlook.

On Monday, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that he wanted to see more evidence that inflation was easing back to the Fed’s goal of 2%. The rest of the week is filled with a host of Fed speeches from policymakers who will give their final guidance in the run-up to the blackout period and the next FOMC meeting. This “Fedspeak” will be the main focus for markets, although it may be wise to also keep an eye on the US weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday and US PMI figures for April which are released on Friday.

Taking a technical look at the Dollar Index, prices remain in a bearish trend on the daily charts. Sustained weakness below 102.00 could result in a selloff back towards 100.79 and 100.00, a level not seen since April 2022.

Currency spotlight – EURUSD

The euro brushed off darkening investor sentiment in Germany’s economy in April amid fears over the banking sector and high inflation. The ZEW business survey expectations reading declined for a second month to 4.1 in April from 13 in March and well below market estimates of 15.3. But the current conditions did see a marked improvement, hitting the highest level since June last year. 

The euro is being supported by ECB rate hike expectations with markets pricing in a 25bp hike in May and two more similar size moves at the June and July meetings. Given how inflation remains well above the ECB’s target of 2%, hawks remain behind the wheel and this should keep euro bulls in a position of power.

Looking at the technical picture, EURUSD remains in an uptrend on the daily charts with prices again approaching 1.1000. A strong daily close above this point could encourage a move back toward the recent high at 1.1075. Should 1.1000 prove to be reliable resistance, prices may slip towards 1.0900.

Commodity Spotlight – Gold

Gold is attempting to nurse the deep wounds inflicted by the recent selloff that saw prices fall more than 2% in two days. Renewed expectations around the Fed extending its rate hike cycle deeper into 2023 hammered zero-yielding gold, with prices flirting around the psychological $2000 level as of writing. This could be another volatile week for the precious metal due to more speeches from Fed officials.

Focusing on the technical picture, last Friday’s heavily bearish daily could shift the balance of power in favour of the sellers. Sustained weakness below $2000 may open a path back towards $1950 and $1900 respectively. If bulls are able to close back above $2000, gold could see $2025 and $2048.50.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Rising US government bond yields put negative pressure on stock indices

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.30%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.33%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.28% yesterday. But despite the gains in the indices, sentiment for growth sectors, including technology, was dampened by a jump in Treasury yields amid growing fears of further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Shares in Charles Schwab (SCHW) rose by almost 4% after the publication of mixed first-quarter results. The company’s profit beat economists’ expectations, but revenue fell short of forecasts. The brokerage also reported a drop in deposits and said it was suspending its share buyback program. Alphabet (GOOGL) shares fell by 2% on reports that Samsung can abandon Google search in favor of Microsoft’s Bing (MSFT) as the default search engine on its devices, threatening around $3 billion in annual revenues. Apple (AAPL) has announced that it will open a savings account for Apple Card users.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.11%, French CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.28%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.17%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed on Monday with a 0.10% gain.

ECB head Christine Lagarde warned yesterday that changes in the global economy caused by geopolitics pose a challenge to the European Central Bank and its colleagues. A key finding of leading democracies is that there is a need for greater “resilience” in supply chains – so that they are better insulated from risks ranging from war and pandemics to attempts at coercion by authoritarian regimes.

Oil prices were down by 2% yesterday. The US dollar is strengthening along with rising government bond yields, making dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Traders are betting that the Fed will raise its lending rate by another quarter percentage point in May and have pushed back expectations of a rate cut until later this year, as it usually does during a slowdown in economic growth. The IEA also warned in its monthly report that production cuts announced by OPEC+ producers could exacerbate the oil supply shortfall expected in the second half of this year and could hurt consumers and the global economic recovery.

Asian markets mostly rallied yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.07%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped by 1.90%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day up by 1.68%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) fell by 0.68%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.27% by Monday’s end. According to analysts, the prospect of higher interest rates from the US does not bode well for Asian markets, given that it limits the amount of foreign liquidity flowing into the region. But given that most Asian central banks have suspended their respective rate hike cycles, Asian indices could find some support in the short term.

China’s economy grew by 4.5% in the latest quarter, helped largely by the lifting of restrictions against COVID. But other economic indicators were mixed. Industrial production in March was worse than forecast for the second month in a row, indicating that the country’s manufacturing sector is still recovering and has not gained momentum. Nevertheless, strong retail sales data showed that China’s consumption-driven economic recovery is largely on track, which is likely to benefit the country’s exporters in the near term.

The RBA’s March monetary policy minutes showed strong reasons to pause and reassess the need for tightening at future meetings. The board had considered a rate hike in April before deciding to pause. But as inflation remains high, further assessment of data on inflation, jobs, consumer spending, and business conditions is needed.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,151.32 +13.68 (+0.33%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,987.18 +100.71 (+0.30%)

DAX (DE40) 15,789.53 −17.97 (−0.11%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,879.51 +7.60  (+0.097%)

USD Index 102.10 +0.55 +0.54%

Important events for today:
  • – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China GDP (q/q) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – China Industrial Production (y/y) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Reports from major banks give investors optimism about the stock market

By JustMarkets 

At the close of the stock market on Friday, Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.42% (+1.38% for the week), while S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.21% (+1.28% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.35% on Friday (+1.24% for the week).

Short-term inflation expectations in the US jumped to a nearly two-year high at the start of April on the back of higher gas prices, but consumer sentiment did rise. These patterns show that consumers are fully aware that inflation is down from its peak, but high prices still make them feel less financially secure. Despite the minutes of the central bank’s March meeting acknowledging an increased risk of recession later this year, most investors are betting that the Fed will still raise rates by another 25 basis points at its next policy meeting on May 3rd.

The big Wall Street banks started the quarterly reporting season with better-than-expected results. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) jumped +7% after it reported first-quarter results that beat analysts’ top and bottom line estimates. Citigroup Inc (C) and Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) also reported better-than-expected results. The first-quarter reporting season is heating up, and results from Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Bank of America (BAC), as well as Netflix (NFLX), Tesla (TSLA), IBM (IBM) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), are expected in this week. According to Refinitiv, analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to fall by -4.8% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year.

Equity markets in Europe rose on Friday. The German DAX (DE30) gained 0.50% (+2.61% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.52% on Friday (+2.61% for the week), the Spanish IBEX 35 index (ES35) increased by 0.33% (+0.95% for the week), the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed Friday up by 0.36% (+2.73% for the week).

ECB Governing Council spokesman Mario Centeno, who is Portugal’s central bank governor, said on Friday that a quarter-point interest rate hike is the maximum that the European Central Bank should announce at its next meeting. Beyond that, either a pause or a slowdown in the pace of increases is possible. François Villrois de Galleau from the Governing Council of the European Central Bank of France reiterated his view that the cycle of aggressive interest rate rises is coming to an end. But their comments contradict the other ECB officials who are still considering a fourth consecutive 0.5% hike to combat core inflation. The core CPI, in contrast to the overall figure, continues to rise slowly.

The dollar index jumped sharply on Friday as FOMC member Christopher Waller, one of the biggest hawks, said he wanted further monetary policy tightening, despite evidence that inflation in the United States has steadily declined from the highs of recent months. The rise in the dollar has led to a rise in government bond yields. Gold is known to have an inverse correlation to government bond yields, so there has been a collapse in the price of the yellow metal. In the short-term, gold could remain very volatile. But the medium-term outlook points to a renewed historical high.

Oil markets are rising for the fourth week in a row thanks to higher demand forecasts by the IEA global energy agency for 2023. But crude oil prices lost much of Friday’s upward momentum after Fed Chief Waller spoke out in favor of further rate hikes.

Asian markets mostly rallied last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 3.02%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 1.06%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.45%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) jumped by 1.68%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 1.72%.

The People’s Bank of China kept its medium-term lending rate at 2.75%, keeping monetary policy stable ahead of the key first-quarter GDP figure due to be released on Tuesday.

In the commodities market, futures on coffee (+13.17%), WTI oil (+9.26%), lumber (+9.09%), sugar (+8.45%), Brent oil (+8.44%), gasoline (+5.74%), platinum (+5.52%), silver (+5.42%), orange juice (+2.5%) and palladium (+2.45%) showed the biggest gains last week. Futures on natural gas (-4.96%) and cocoa (-1.5%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,137.64 −8.58 (−0.21%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,886.47 −143.22 (−0.42%)

DAX (DE40) 15,807.50 +78.04 (+0.50%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,871.91 +28.53 (+0.36%)

USD Index 101.58 +0.57 +0.56%

Important events for today:
  • – Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Wholesale Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The Colorado River drought crisis: 5 essential reads

By Jennifer Weeks, The Conversation 

A 23-year western drought has drastically shrunk the Colorado River, which provides water for drinking and irrigation for Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, California and two states in Mexico. Under a 1922 compact, these jurisdictions receive fixed allocations of water from the river – but now there’s not enough water to provide them.

As states try to negotiate ways to share the decreasing flow, the U.S. Department of the Interior is considering cuts of up to 25% in allotments for California, Nevada and Arizona. The federal government can regulate these states’ water shares because they come mainly from Lake Mead, the largest U.S. reservoir, which was created when the Hoover Dam was built on the Colorado River near Las Vegas.

These five articles from The Conversation’s archive explain what’s happening and what’s at stake in the Colorado River basin’s drought crisis.

The Colorado River provides water to 40 million people and some of the fastest-growing cities in the U.S., but its flow is dwindling.

1. A faulty river compact

The idea of negotiating a legally binding agreement to share river water among states was innovative in the 1920s. But the Colorado River Compact made some critical assumptions that have proved to be fatal flaws.

The lawyers who wrote the compact knew that the Colorado’s flow could vary and that they didn’t have enough data for long-term planning. But they still allocated fixed quantities of water to each participating state. “We know now that they used optimistic flow numbers measured during a particularly wet period,” wrote Patricia J. Rettig, head archivist of Colorado State University’s Water Resources Archive.

Nor did the compact encourage conservation as the West’s population grew. “When settlers developed the West, their prevailing attitude was that water reaching the sea was wasted, so people aimed to use it all,” Rettig observed.

2. Temporary cuts aren’t big enough

Western states have known for years that they were taking more water from the Colorado than nature was putting in. But reducing water use is politically charged, since it means imposing limits on such powerful constituencies as farmers and developers.

In 2019, officials from the U.S. government and the seven Colorado Basin states signed a seven-year drought contingency plan that temporarily reduced states’ water allocations. But the plan did not propose long-term strategies for addressing climate change or overuse of water in the region.

“Since 2000, Colorado River flows have been 16% below the 20th-century average,” wrote water policy experts Brad Udall, Douglas Kenney and John Fleck. “Temperatures across the Colorado River Basin are now over 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) warmer than the 20th-century average, and are certain to continue rising. Scientists have begun using the term ‘aridification’ to describe the hotter, drier climate in the basin, rather than ‘drought,’ which implies a temporary condition.”

3. The looming threat of dead pool

Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the other major reservoir on the lower Colorado River, were created to provide water for irrigation and to generate hydropower, which is produced by the force of water flowing through large turbines in the lakes’ dams. If water in either lake drops below the intakes for the turbines, the lake will fall below “minimum power pool” and stop producing electricity.

If water in the lakes dropped even further, they could reach “dead pool,” the point at which water is too low to flow through the dam. This is an extreme scenario, but it can’t be ruled out, University of Arizona water expert Robert Glennon warned. In addition to drought and climate change, he noted, both lakes lie in canyons that “are V-shaped, like martini glasses – wide at the rim and narrow at the bottom. As levels in the lakes decline, each foot of elevation holds less water.”

Infographic of Hoover Dam and water levels where power general and then water flow would stop.
This graphic shows the water level in Lake Powell as of November 2022 and the levels that represent minimum power pool and dead pool.
Arizona Department of Water Resources

4. Why hydropower matters

Climate change and drought are stressing hydropower generation throughout the U.S. West by reducing snowpack and precipitation and drying up rivers. This could create serious stress for regional electric grid operators, according to Penn State civil engineers Caitlin Grady and Lauren Dennis.

“Because it can quickly be turned on and off, hydroelectric power can help control minute-to-minute supply and demand changes,” they wrote. “It can also help power grids quickly bounce back when blackouts occur. Hydropower makes up about 40% of U.S. electric grid facilities that can be started without an additional power supply during a blackout, in part because the fuel needed to generate power is simply the water held in the reservoir behind the turbine.”

While most hydropower dams are likely here to stay, in Grady’s and Dennis’ view, “climate change will change how these plants are used and managed.”

5. The resurrection of Glen Canyon

Lake Powell was created by flooding Glen Canyon, a spectacular swath of canyons on the Utah-Arizona border. As the lake’s water level drops, many side canyons have reemerged. Effectively, climate change is draining the lake.

A boat trip into zones of Glen Canyon that have been uncovered as water levels drop.

This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to recover a unique landscape, wrote University of Utah political scientist Dan McCool. “But managing this emergent landscape also presents serious political and environmental challenges.”

In McCool’s view, a key priority should be to give Native American tribes a meaningful role in managing those lands – including cultural sites and artifacts that were flooded when the river was dammed. The river has also deposited massive quantities of sediments in the canyon behind the dam, some of which are contaminated. And as visitors flock to newly accessible side canyons, the area will need staff to manage visitors and protect fragile resources.

“Other landscapes are likely to emerge across the West as climate change reshapes the region and numerous reservoirs decline. With proper planning, Glen Canyon can provide a lesson in how to manage them,” McCool observed.The Conversation

About the Author:

Jennifer Weeks, Senior Environment + Energy Editor, The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Boosting EV market share to 67% of US car sales is a huge leap – but automakers can meet EPA’s tough new standards

By Alan Jenn, University of California, Davis 

One big question keeps surfacing after the Biden administration announced plans to raise auto standards so sharply they would likely boost electric vehicle production to 67% of all new passenger vehicle sales in under a decade: Can automakers pull that off?

The proposal would require a huge change in production and consumer choice. To put it in perspective, in 2022 about 6% of U.S. passenger vehicle sales were all-electric.

I study the electric vehicle industry and policy. Here’s why I think the Environmental Protection Agency’s plan can succeed.

Automakers have met tough targets before

Automakers typically push back against tougher rules and often lobby to get standards relaxed. However, U.S. car companies have also shown that they can meet ambitious goals.

When California began requiring that car companies sell a certain percentage of zero-emissions vehicles, its initial target translated to about 15% of all new car sales by 2025. Automakers quickly exceeded that goal. By 2022, nearly 19% of California’s new light-duty vehicle sales were electric. In response, the rules were ramped up last year to 100% of all new cars by 2035.

U.S. automakers are already ramping up to meet the California rules, as well as aggressive requirements in Europe and China.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency can’t set quotas for EV sales, but it can require automakers to progressively lower total greenhouse gas emissions from the vehicles they sell. Emission rates are inherently tied to fuel economy – more fuel-efficient vehicles emit less carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that is warming the planet.

The new federal proposal, which still faces a comments period and could change before being finalized, would set emissions restrictions tight enough that it will effectively result in about two-thirds of new light-duty vehicles sold by 2032 being electric. That’s almost as aggressive as rules in the European Union. A second EPA proposal, also announced April 12, 2023, affects heavy-duty vehicles in the same way, but sets a lower target.

The government is offering lots of incentives

While the proposed rules are strict, the federal government has provided unprecedented support over the last year and a half to help meet demand for EV battery parts and production, computer chips and charging infrastructure.

The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, in conjunction with 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act, are providing billions of dollars in grants and loans for EV and battery manufacturing, plus tax breaks for EV buyers. The infrastructure law also allocated US$7.5 billion to build a network of EV chargers throughout the country under the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure program.

In an ideal world, “carrots” like these would be enough to encourage automakers to embrace the technological shift. But the EPA’s new greenhouse gas emissions standards represent the “stick” designed to guarantee the shift happens.

EVs aren’t just luxury anymore

Making EVs affordable will be crucial to success. Tightening fuel economy and greenhouse gas emission standards is known to increase the average price of new vehicles. For now, EVs have a higher sticker price than gasoline vehicles, which is a major barrier to their adoption.

The cost of batteries is one reason EV prices are higher. But there’s another important reason, and it may be changing: the types of electric vehicles being produced.

Many of the current EV models are large or luxury vehicles. Those vehicle classes have higher profit margins, meaning automakers make more money off the sales, which helps them invest in production.

But more entry-level EVs are coming on the market soon. And many of them, such as the Chevrolet Bolt, are already fairly cost competitive with comparable gas cars – and cheaper overall when taking into account lower energy and maintenance costs.

Increasing EV production will bring down costs over time as manufacturing processes improve and sales and competition grow.

In the meantime, the Inflation Reduction Act’s tax credits can help narrow the current price gap between certain EVs and gas vehicles. Buyers can get up to $7,500 for qualifying new electric vehicles.

Investments are already underway

Meeting the EPA’s standards won’t be easy, and the industry will face other challenges. For example, the U.S. needs to train workers in new skills, both for auto production and for charger installation, and it will need to boost renewable energy production to power EVs cleanly.

The ramp-up will also come with costs. Ford announced in early 2023 that its EV division had lost $3 billion in each of the previous two years and would likely lose a similar amount in 2023 as it invested in new production.

But Ford also said it expects to see an 8% profit margin by 2026 and to boost production that year to 2 million electric vehicles. Ford and several other automakers have announced large investments in electric vehicle capabilities. A recent Reuters analysis found that 37 global automakers expected to invest $1.2 trillion in EVs, batteries and materials through 2030.

John Bozzella, CEO of the industry trade group Alliance for Automotive Innovation, said automakers were committed to the EV transition and would work with U.S. regulators, but he also called the EPA plan “aggressive by any measure.” Whether it’s feasible, he said, will depend in part on how the U.S. manages charging infrastructure, supply chains and the resilience of the power grid.

The proposed rules provide clear targets

The aggressive nature of the EPA’s proposed regulation is a major departure from the norm. Efficiency standards have traditionally meant incremental improvements in vehicle technologies, like increasing engine efficiency. The proposed rule likely will be challenged once finalized, and since it isn’t written into law, there’s a chance it could be reversed by future administrations.

But these standards can help companies set goals for the future by providing clear targets. Failing to meet EPA rules can come with tough penalties, up to $45,000 per vehicle per day in some cases. That’s enough to very rapidly put any automaker out of business.

In my view, the updated standards are necessary to ensure that the U.S. can keep pace with EV adoption around the world.The Conversation

About the Author:

Alan Jenn, Associate Professional Researcher in Transportation, University of California, Davis

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Week Ahead: 3 potential trading opportunities

By ForexTime 

Shifting expectations surrounding Fed rate hikes remain the primary driver of financial markets.

Yet, the week ahead still features several other potential catalysts for more opportunities for various assets:

Monday, April 17

  • GBP: Speech by Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe
  • USD: Speech by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin

Tuesday, April 18

  • AUD: Australia March household spending; RBA April meeting minutes
  • CNH: China 1Q GDP; March retail sales, industrial production, jobless rate
  • EUR: Germany April ZEW survey expectations; Eurozone February trade balance
  • GBP: UK February unemployment rate; March jobless claims
  • CAD: Canada March CPI
  • SPX500_m: Q1 earnings from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America

Wednesday, April 19

  • JPY: Japan February industrial production (final)
  • EUR: Eurozone March CPI (final)
  • GBP: UK March CPI
  • USD: Fed Beige Book
  • Crude: EIA weekly US stockpiles data

Thursday, April 20

  • NZD: New Zealand 1Q CPI
  • JPY: Japan March external trade
  • CNH: China loan prime rates
  • EUR: Eurozone April consumer confidence; ECB March meeting report
  • USD: Fed speak; US weekly initial jobless claims

Friday, April 21

  • JPY: Japan March national CPI; April PMIs
  • EUR: Eurozone April PMIs
  • GBP: UK April PMIs and consumer confidence; March retail sales
  • CAD: Canada February retail sales
  • USD: US April PMIs

 

 

1) Brent oil to climb higher towards $90?

With markets now having a stronger grasp of the supply outlook in light of the OPEC+ production cuts, oil markets are set to focus their attentions towards other factors over the coming week:

Look out for the data releases that speak to the health of major economies, such as China’s data dump on Tuesday, as well as PMI readings out of the likes of Japan, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US on Friday.

Of course, there’s the weekly EIA report on US crude stockpiles due on Wednesday to consider as well.

  • If markets are given fresh evidence that these major economies, especially China, are losing growth momentum, that may drag oil prices lower on fears that global demand may not be robust enough to even absorb the lowered oil supplies.
    Similarly, a larger-than-expected build in US crude stockpiles tend to translate into oil prices moderating back towards the $84.47 Fibonacci support (23.6% Fib level from the 2022 high down to the March 2023 trough).
  • On the other hand, better-than-expected economic data and/or a larger drawdown in US oil stockpiles may boost prices to a new cycle high closer to $90/bbl.

Note that from a technical perspective, Brent still appears “overbought”, which suggests a technical pullback may soon ensue.

 

 

2) USDInd to touch 100?

The Fed’s Beige Book due on Wednesday, along with the slate of public speeches by Fed officials on Thursday, should offer insights into what Fed officials will be considering at its upcoming rate decision.

Note that this is the last few chances to hear from Fed officials before they enter a blackout period beginning this Saturday, April 22, ahead of the next FOMC meeting to be held on May 2nd – 3rd.

  • Should the Fed’s Beige Book present anecdotal evidence about worsening US economic conditions, that may prompt the Fed to ease up on its “demand-destroying” rate hikes. Combined with more Fed officials who state publicly that they’re willing to consider a pause with its rate hikes, such dovish signals may drag the USD index closer towards the psychologically-important 100 mark.
  • On the other hand, if the Fed’s Beige Book is a repeat of its previous release in suggesting that the US economy remains on solid footing, coupled with Fed officials signalling their continued desire for even more rate hikes to vanquish inflationary pressures, such a hawkish scenario might prompt the USD Index to test resistance around its previous cycle low at 101.385.

 

 

3) USDJPY to touch 131?

The Japanese Yen has been lagging behind its G10 peers in taking advantage of the weaker US dollar.

So far in April, JPY has gained by merely 0.23% against the greenback, putting it in last place among its G10 counterparts’ month-to-date performance against the buck.

This has been largely due to markets paring bet their bets over a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, under the stewardship of new governor Kazuo Ueda.

However, Japan’s national consumer price index (CPI) release on Friday may provide enough reason to reawaken expectations that the BoJ can finally move closer to exiting negative interest rates, perhaps first by further tweaking its YCC (yield curve control) programme.

  • A higher-than-3.2% headline inflation print may allow the Yen to play catch up and push USDJPY back lower and closer towards the psychologically-important 130 level.
  • A lower-than-3.2% headline inflation print may force markets to further delay their bets for when that BoJ rate hike may eventually occur, potentially translating into a breach above its 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) for USDJPY.

From current levels at the time of writing, Bloomberg’s FX model is now pointing to a slightly higher chance (42%) that USDJPY will touch the 131 mark rather than the 134 level (38% chance) over the next one-week period.


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