Author Archive for InvestMacro

Data centers told to pitch in as storms and cold weather boost power demand

By Nikki Luke, University of Tennessee and Conor Harrison, University of South Carolina 

As Winter Storm Fern swept across the United States in late January 2026, bringing ice, snow and freezing temperatures, it left more than a million people without power, mostly in the Southeast.

Scrambling to meet higher than average demand, PJM, the nonprofit company that operates the grid serving much of the mid-Atlantic U.S., asked for federal permission to generate more power, even if it caused high levels of air pollution from burning relatively dirty fuels.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright agreed and took another step, too. He authorized PJM and ERCOT – the company that manages the Texas power grid – as well as Duke Energy, a major electricity supplier in the Southeast, to tell data centers and other large power-consuming businesses to turn on their backup generators.

The goal was to make sure there was enough power available to serve customers as the storm hit. Generally, these facilities power themselves and do not send power back to the grid. But Wright explained that their “industrial diesel generators” could “generate 35 gigawatts of power, or enough electricity to power many millions of homes.”

We are scholars of the electricity industry who live and work in the Southeast. In the wake of Winter Storm Fern, we see opportunities to power data centers with less pollution while helping communities prepare for, get through and recover from winter storms.

Data centers use enormous quantities of energy

Before Wright’s order, it was hard to say whether data centers would reduce the amount of electricity they take from the grid during storms or other emergencies.

This is a pressing question, because data centers’ power demands to support generative artificial intelligence are already driving up electricity prices in congested grids like PJM’s.

And data centers are expected to need only more power. Estimates vary widely, but the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab anticipates that the share of electricity production in the U.S. used by data centers could spike from 4.4% in 2023 to between 6.7% and 12% by 2028. PJM expects a peak load growth of 32 gigawatts by 2030 – enough power to supply 30 million new homes, but nearly all going to new data centers. PJM’s job is to coordinate that energy – and figure out how much the public, or others, should pay to supply it.

The race to build new data centers and find the electricity to power them has sparked enormous public backlash about how data centers will inflate household energy costs. Other concerns are that power-hungry data centers fed by natural gas generators can hurt air quality, consume water and intensify climate damage. Many data centers are located, or proposed, in communities already burdened by high levels of pollution.

Local ordinances, regulations created by state utility commissions and proposed federal laws have tried to protect ratepayers from price hikes and require data centers to pay for the transmission and generation infrastructure they need.

Always-on connections?

In addition to placing an increasing burden on the grid, many data centers have asked utility companies for power connections that are active 99.999% of the time.

But since the 1970s, utilities have encouraged “demand response” programs, in which large power users agree to reduce their demand during peak times like Winter Storm Fern. In return, utilities offer financial incentives such as bill credits for participation.

Over the years, demand response programs have helped utility companies and power grid managers lower electricity demand at peak times in summer and winter. The proliferation of smart meters allows residential customers and smaller businesses to participate in these efforts as well. When aggregated with rooftop solar, batteries and electric vehicles, these distributed energy resources can be dispatched as “virtual power plants.”

A different approach

The terms of data center agreements with local governments and utilities often aren’t available to the public. That makes it hard to determine whether data centers could or would temporarily reduce their power use.

In some cases, uninterrupted access to power is necessary to maintain critical data systems, such as medical records, bank accounts and airline reservation systems.

Yet, data center demand has spiked with the AI boom, and developers have increasingly been willing to consider demand response. In August 2025, Google announced new agreements with Indiana Michigan Power and the Tennessee Valley Authority to provide “data center demand response by targeting machine learning workloads,” shifting “non-urgent compute tasks” away from times when the grid is strained. Several new companies have also been founded specifically to help AI data centers shift workloads and even use in-house battery storage to temporarily move data centers’ power use off the grid during power shortages.

Flexibility for the future

One study has found that if data centers would commit to using power flexibly, an additional 100 gigawatts of capacity – the amount that would power around 70 million households – could be added to the grid without adding new generation and transmission.

In another instance, researchers demonstrated how data centers could invest in offsite generation through virtual power plants to meet their generation needs. Installing solar panels with battery storage at businesses and homes can boost available electricity more quickly and cheaply than building a new full-size power plant. Virtual power plants also provide flexibility as grid operators can tap into batteries, shift thermostats or shut down appliances in periods of peak demand. These projects can also benefit the buildings where they are hosted.

Distributed energy generation and storage, alongside winterizing power lines and using renewables, are key ways to help keep the lights on during and after winter storms.

Those efforts can make a big difference in places like Nashville, Tennessee, where more than 230,000 customers were without power at the peak of outages during Fern, not because there wasn’t enough electricity for their homes but because their power lines were down.

The future of AI is uncertain. Analysts caution that the AI industry may prove to be a speculative bubble: If demand flatlines, they say, electricity customers may end up paying for grid improvements and new generation built to meet needs that would not actually exist.

Onsite diesel generators are an emergency solution for large users such as data centers to reduce strain on the grid. Yet, this is not a long-term solution to winter storms. Instead, if data centers, utilities, regulators and grid operators are willing to also consider offsite distributed energy to meet electricity demand, then their investments could help keep energy prices down, reduce air pollution and harm to the climate, and help everyone stay powered up during summer heat and winter cold.The Conversation

About the Author:

Nikki Luke, Assistant Professor of Human Geography, University of Tennessee and Conor Harrison, Associate Professor of Economic Geography, University of South Carolina

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Bitcoin has dropped below $70,000. The Bank of Mexico held its rate at 7%

By JustMarkets 

On Thursday, trading on the US stock market ended in a decline. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 1.20%, the S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 1.23%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 1.59%. Pressure intensified in the consumer discretionary and communication services segments, where investors trimmed positions in overcrowded mega-cap stocks. Alphabet contributed to the negative trend, as its plans to sharply increase AI investments raised fresh questions about the monetization timeline for massive capital expenditures. Weakness also spread through the semiconductor sector following cautious guidance from Qualcomm, which pointed to cooling demand and inventory issues, dragging down the entire chip segment. Risk-off sentiment was reinforced by macro statistics: a rise in initial jobless claims and a sharp spike in corporate layoff announcements strengthened signals of a labor market slowdown and increased pressure on equities.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened after the Bank of Mexico decided to maintain its key interest rate at 7.00% and adopted a more cautious stance regarding future easing. The regulator pointed to intensifying inflationary risks, raised its long-term price growth prognoses, and emphasized a gradual approach for further steps, which cooled interest in carry trades and lowered expectations for sustained high real yields.

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $70,000 for the first time since October 2024, losing about a quarter of its value since the start of the year amid a massive reduction in speculative positions across the risk asset spectrum. The sharp decline was accompanied by deteriorating sentiment toward digital assets, undermining their reputation as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, especially given the simultaneous drop in gold prices. Bitcoin’s vulnerability was further exacerbated by its higher share in institutional portfolios, making it sensitive to broad risk-reduction regimes following spikes in volatility and tightening margin requirements.

European equity markets declined on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.46%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.29%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 1.97%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) ended at 0.90%. The European Central Bank (ECB), as expected, kept rates unchanged. However, Christine Lagarde’s comments cooled easing expectations, as the regulator took a restrained stance regarding slowing inflation and the strength of the euro.

Silver prices (XAG) fell sharply, dropping to $64.1 per ounce on Friday before recovering to levels above $70 per ounce, highlighting a surge in precious metals volatility. The decline occurred amid a broad reduction in risk appetite and the deleveraging of positions, which caused silver to look weaker than other safe-haven assets. Pressure was compounded by signals of a cooling US labor market, including rising unemployment claims and significant corporate layoffs, which bolstered expectations for a Fed policy easing toward the end of the year. However, the initial investor reaction was risk-off, triggering margin selling following last week’s sharp rise. Additional uncertainty stems from the discussion of Kevin Warsh’s candidacy for Fed Chair, while easing geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran temporarily reduced safe-haven demand.

WTI crude oil prices reversed sharply downward on Thursday, losing more than 3% and falling toward the $63 per barrel area, erasing the gains of the previous two sessions. Pressure on quotes was driven by easing geopolitical tensions following confirmation of upcoming talks between Iran and the US, which reduced fears of supply disruptions from a key OPEC producer and diminished the Middle East risk premium.

Asian markets mostly declined yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.88%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 0.08%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.14%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative result of 0.43%.

On Friday, the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) weakened to 16,880 per dollar, nearing its recent record low amid a sharp deterioration in investor sentiment. Pressure intensified after Moody’s downgraded Indonesia’s sovereign rating outlook to “negative,” citing decreased predictability of economic policy. This move followed an MSCI warning regarding transparency issues, which previously triggered a massive capital outflow from the local market and fueled doubts about governance quality. The domestic backdrop also remained weak: 2025 economic growth fell below the government target, strengthening expectations for additional policy easing by Bank Indonesia.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,798.40 −84.32 (−1.23%)

Dow Jones (US30) 48,908.72 −592.58 (−1.20%)

DAX (DE40) 24,491.06 −111.98 (−0.46%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,309.22 −93.12 (−0.90%)

USD Index 97.93 +0.32% (+0.32%)

News feed for: 2026.02.06

  • German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
  • Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – SEK (MED)
  • Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2); – CHF (MED)
  • Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
  • US Michigan Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – CAD (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Gold Closes with a Decline for the Second Week in a Row: Fewer Risks

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold on Friday was at 4800 USD per troy ounce. It remains in a vulnerable position after declining 3.8% the day before and is moving towards its second consecutive weekly drawdown. This comes amid high selling pressure.

The correction follows a series of updates to historic highs in January. The rise in prices was initially driven by heightened geopolitical risks, concerns about the Fed’s independence, and speculative demand from China. The tension has since decreased, while the protective attractiveness of gold has diminished. Representatives of Iran and the US confirmed that negotiations are taking place in Oman, and the market is closely following their progress.

An additional factor was weak data on the US labour market. In January, the number of layoffs rose to 108.4 thousand, the maximum for this month since 2009. Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 231 thousand, and the ADP report on private-sector employment was weaker than expected. A series of these data has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut later this year. At the same time, the market still considers June as a possible time for the first step.

Technical Analysis

The H4 chart shows completed pulse growth with a peak above 5500, followed by an aggressive correction. The decline went to the 4450–4500 zone. From there, the rebound began. The price moved up to the 5000–5050 area but remains below the key 5100–5150 resistance and the Bollinger median line. The structure indicates a phase of high volatility and redistribution after an overheated uptrend.

After a sharp collapse, gold on the H1 chart formed a local bottom in the 4650–4700 range and began to recover. The price is back within the Bollinger Bands and is consolidating near the median line at around 4820–4850. The movement looks corrective, volatility is declining, and the balance of power is still neutral.

Conclusion

In summary, gold’s decline reflects a market reassessment, where receding geopolitical fears and a shift towards anticipating Fed easing have removed key pillars of its recent speculative rally. Technically, the sell-off appears to be a volatile but natural correction following an overheated uptrend. While a short-term stabilisation is underway, the price remains vulnerable below critical higher-timeframe resistance. The near-term direction will likely depend on the tone of upcoming US economic data, which will either reinforce or undermine the market’s dovish Fed expectations, and further developments in Middle East diplomacy.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Your brain can be trained, much like your muscles – a neurologist explains how to boost your brain health

By Joanna Fong-Isariyawongse, University of Pittsburgh 

If you have ever lifted a weight, you know the routine: challenge the muscle, give it rest, feed it and repeat. Over time, it grows stronger.

Of course, muscles only grow when the challenge increases over time. Continually lifting the same weight the same way stops working.

It might come as a surprise to learn that the brain responds to training in much the same way as our muscles, even though most of us never think about it that way. Clear thinking, focus, creativity and good judgment are built through challenge, when the brain is asked to stretch beyond routine rather than run on autopilot. That slight mental discomfort is often the sign that the brain is actually being trained, a lot like that good workout burn in your muscles.

Think about walking the same loop through a local park every day. At first, your senses are alert. You notice the hills, the trees, the changing light. But after a few loops, your brain checks out. You start planning dinner, replaying emails or running through your to-do list. The walk still feels good, but your brain is no longer being challenged.

Routine feels comfortable, but comfort and familiarity alone do not build new brain connections.

As a neurologist who studies brain activity, I use electroencephalograms, or EEGs, to record the brain’s electrical patterns.

Research in humans shows that these rhythms are remarkably dynamic. When someone learns a new skill, EEG rhythms often become more organized and coordinated. This reflects the brain’s attempt to strengthen pathways needed for that skill.

Your brain trains in zones too

For decades, scientists believed that the brain’s ability to grow and reorganize, called neuroplasticity, was largely limited to childhood. Once the brain matured, its wiring was thought to be largely fixed.

But that idea has been overturned. Decades of research show that adult brains can form new connections and reorganize existing networks, under the right conditions, throughout life.

Some of the most influential work in this field comes from enriched environment studies in animals. Rats housed in stimulating environments filled with toys, running wheels and social interaction developed larger, more complex brains than rats kept in standard cages. Their brains adapted because they were regularly exposed to novelty and challenge.

Human studies find similar results. Adults who take on genuinely new challenges, such as learning a language, dancing or practicing a musical instrument, show measurable increases in brain volume and connectivity on MRI scans.

The takeaway is simple: Repetition keeps the brain running, but novelty pushes the brain to adapt, forcing it to pay attention, learn and problem-solve in new ways. Neuroplasticity thrives when the brain is nudged just beyond its comfort zone.

The reality of neural fatigue

Just like muscles, the brain has limits. It does not get stronger from endless strain. Real growth comes from the right balance of challenge and recovery.

When the brain is pushed for too long without a break – whether that means long work hours, staying locked onto the same task or making nonstop decisions under pressure – performance starts to slip. Focus fades. Mistakes increase. To keep you going, the brain shifts how different regions work together, asking some areas to carry more of the load. But that extra effort can still make the whole network run less smoothly.

Neural fatigue is more than feeling tired. Brain imaging studies show that during prolonged mental work, the networks responsible for attention and decision-making begin to slow down, while regions that promote rest and reward-seeking take over. This shift helps explain why mental exhaustion often comes with stronger cravings for quick rewards, like sugary snacks, comfort foods or mindless scrolling. The result is familiar: slower thinking, more mistakes, irritability and mental fog.

This is where the muscle analogy becomes especially useful. You wouldn’t do squats for six hours straight, because your leg muscles would eventually give out. As they work, they build up byproducts that make each contraction a little less effective until you finally have to stop. Your brain behaves in a similar way.

Likewise, in the brain, when the same cognitive circuits are overused, chemical signals build up, communication slows and learning stalls.

But rest allows those strained circuits to reset and function more smoothly over time. And taking breaks from a taxing activity does not interrupt learning. In fact, breaks are critical for efficient learning.

The crucial importance of rest

Among all forms of rest, sleep is the most powerful.

Sleep is the brain’s night shift. While you rest, the brain takes out the trash through a special cleanup system called the glymphatic system that clears away waste and harmful proteins. Sleep also restores glycogen, a critical fuel source for brain cells.

And importantly, sleep is when essential repair work happens. Growth hormone surges during deep sleep, supporting tissue repair. Immune cells regroup and strengthen their activity.

During REM sleep, the stage of sleep linked to dreaming, the brain replays patterns from the day to consolidate memories. This process is critical not only for cognitive skills like learning an instrument but also for physical skills like mastering a move in sports.

On the other hand, chronic sleep deprivation impairs attention, disrupts decision-making and alters the hormones that regulate appetite and metabolism. This is why fatigue drives sugar cravings and late-night snacking.

Sleep is not an optional wellness practice. It is a biological requirement for brain performance.

Exercise feeds the brain too

Exercise strengthens the brain as well as the body.

Physical activity increases levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor, or BDNF, a protein that acts like fertilizer for neurons. It promotes the growth of new connections, increases blood flow, reduces inflammation and helps the brain remain adaptable across one’s lifespan.

This is why exercise is one of the strongest lifestyle tools for protecting cognitive health.

Train, recover, repeat

The most important lesson from this science is simple. Your brain is not passively wearing down with age. It is constantly remodeling itself in response to how you use it. Every new challenge and skill you try, every real break, every good night of sleep sends a signal that growth is still expected.

You do not need expensive brain training programs or radical lifestyle changes. Small, consistent habits matter more. Try something unfamiliar. Vary your routines. Take breaks before exhaustion sets in. Move your body. Treat sleep as nonnegotiable.

So the next time you lace up your shoes for a familiar walk, consider taking a different path. The scenery may change only slightly, but your brain will notice. That small detour is often all it takes to turn routine into training.

The brain stays adaptable throughout life. Cognitive resilience is not fixed at birth or locked in early adulthood. It is something you can shape.

If you want a sharper, more creative, more resilient brain, you do not need to wait for a breakthrough drug or a perfect moment. You can start now, with choices that tell your brain that growth is still the plan.The Conversation

About the Author: 

Joanna Fong-Isariyawongse, Associate Professor of Neurology, University of Pittsburgh

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The British Index has hit a new all-time high. Silver has plummeted by 16%

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, trading on the US stock market ended with mixed results. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.53%, the S&P 500 (US500) shed 0.51%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 1.51%. The technology sector took the hardest hit, primarily within semiconductors. A sharp plunge in AMD shares (-17%) following a weak prognosis triggered a sell-off across the entire chip sector. Against this backdrop, investors shifted toward more defensive and value assets. The healthcare sector outperformed the market thanks to strong earnings from Amgen, which supported the Dow Jones in finishing the day in positive territory. Meanwhile, macroeconomic signals failed to spark a reversal: ADP data indicated a sharp slowdown in private-sector employment growth, reinforcing the sense of a cooling labor market.

The US government shutdown was officially ended by President Trump signing the 2-week spending package yesterday.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) dropped below the $73,000 mark, hitting its lowest levels since November 2024, following stern statements from the US Treasury. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explicitly stated that the department has no authority to purchase Bitcoin or support the digital assets market as a whole, fueling investor fears regarding the lack of a government “safety net.” The digital assets have lost more than 40% from their autumn peak, and market sentiment remains fragile. Michael Burry warned of the risk of an intensifying sell-off, noting the vulnerability of companies that aggressively accumulated Bitcoin last year.

European equity markets traded without a unified trend on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.72%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 1.01%, and the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) edged down by 0.09%. The British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.85%, hitting a new all-time high. The standout performer was the British pharmaceutical giant GSK, whose shares surged following strong quarterly results and the reaffirmation of long-term guidance that exceeded market expectations. The UK100 was further supported by oil giants Shell and BP amid continuing oil price gains, while mining companies faced pressure due to falling quotes for precious and industrial metals.

On Thursday, silver prices (XAG/USD) collapsed, losing 16.5% and dropping to around $73.5 per ounce, ending its recent short-term correction. Volatility in the precious metals market has surged once again, and the failed recovery attempt has heightened expectations for further declines, despite hopes for demand at lower levels. Additional pressure came from a strengthening dollar amid hawkish signals from the Fed and a revision of expectations regarding the pace of US rate cuts.

WTI crude oil prices rose toward $65 per barrel on Wednesday, approaching late-January highs as geopolitical risks spiked. Escalating tensions between the US and Iran brought the risk premium back to the market: prospects for nuclear program negotiations are deteriorating, and a recent incident involving the interception of Iranian drones has raised fears of escalation in the Middle East. Possible tightening of sanctions against Iran and risks to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are adding to supply anxieties. The supply side also supported quotes: US crude inventories fell by 3.5 million barrels, confirming a downward trend, albeit slightly weaker than expected.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) jumped nearly 5% on Wednesday to $3.46 per MMBtu, driven by increased fuel deliveries to export LNG terminals. In February, average daily gas flows to the eight largest liquefaction facilities rose to 18.3 billion cubic feet, nearing the December record and exceeding January figures. This surge in export demand highlights the structural role of the US in the global gas market: following the energy crisis of 2022, the country has solidified its status as the world’s largest LNG exporter.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) declined by 0.78%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.32%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.05%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.80%.

The Australian dollar held near $0.70 on Thursday, remaining close to its three-year highs thanks to a combination of hawkish rhetoric from the Reserve Bank and strong foreign trade statistics. The trade surplus in December rose to AUD 3.37 billion, exceeding market expectations as commodity exports recovered while imports fell to multi-month lows. The currency found further support from the RBA’s February rate hike to 3.85%, accompanied by signals of potential further policy tightening.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,882.72 −35.09 (−0.51%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,501.30 +260.31 (+0.53%)

DAX (DE40) 24,603.04 −177.75 (−0.72%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,402.34 +87.75 (+0.85%)

USD Index 97.67 +0.23% (+0.23%)

News feed for: 2026.02.05

  • Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
  • UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
  • UK BoE Monetary Policy Report at 14:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
  • Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+2); – EUR (HIGH)
  • Eurozone ECB Deposit Facility Rate at 15:15 (GMT+2); – EUR (HIGH)
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • US Natural Gas Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)
  • Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2). – MXN (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

GBP/USD Under Local Pressure: Focus on Bank of England Signals

By RoboForex Analytical Department

GBP/USD fell to 1.3627 on Thursday. Investors are awaiting the outcome of today’s Bank of England meeting.

UK interest rates are expected to decline throughout the year. However, the regulator is unlikely to provide clear signals about the timing and scale of easing, as it needs to wait for a clearer picture of inflation.

Additional pressure on the US dollar stems from the delay in the publication of key US labour market data due to the partial government shutdown. This increases uncertainty about the Fed’s future policy.

By the end of the year, global markets are pricing in around 35 basis points of Bank of England easing – one 25 bp cut and a second cut priced with a probability of around 40%.

Political risks remain in the UK. Investor attention is focused on the by-elections in Gorton and Denton County on 26 February, alongside the May local elections. Pollsters show a rise in support for the Reform UK party. It is ahead of both Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party and Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives, despite the general election not being scheduled until 2029.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, after a sharp rally in the second half of January and a fresh high in the 1.3850–1.3880 zone, GBP/USD entered a correction phase. The price has turned down from the upper end of the Bollinger Bands and is now testing the 1.3620–1.3650 support area. Upward momentum has weakened, leaving the structure short-term neutral-to-bearish. At the same time, the broader upward context has not yet been breached.

On the lower H1 chart, a descending corrective channel has formed. The price is consistently posting lower lows and remains near the lower Bollinger Bands. Selling pressure persists, with the nearest support at 1.3520–1.3550. To stabilise, the market would need a return above the 1.3660–1.3700 zone.

Conclusion

In summary, GBP/USD is experiencing a tactical pullback driven by pre-BoE caution and delayed US data, which is creating a temporary dollar squeeze. The technical correction appears orderly and is testing key support within a larger bullish structure. The near-term trajectory hinges almost entirely on the Bank of England’s tone today: any dovish hints could extend the correction towards 1.3520, while a neutral or hawkish hold could trigger a recovery attempt. Political uncertainty in the UK adds a layer of medium-term risk, but for now, the primary focus remains on monetary policy signals and the defence of the 1.3620 support zone.

 

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Bitcoin has plummeted to a 14-month low. Silver jumped by more than 10%

By JustMarkets 

On Tuesday, trading on the US stock market concluded with a decline. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.34%, the S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.84%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 1.43%. The primary pressure fell on companies related to artificial intelligence and semiconductors: Nvidia dropped 2.8%, Broadcom lost 3.3%, and Micron fell by 4.2%. The negative sentiment was amplified by rising US Treasury yields; the increase in long-term rates raised discount rates for growth stocks, making them less attractive.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has officially announced a delay in the publication of the January Non-farm Payrolls report due to the partial government shutdown. The absence of this key data is heightening uncertainty among market participants.

In early February, Bitcoin declined to $72,800, reaching its lowest level since November 2024 amid an increase in forced liquidations of leveraged positions and accelerating capital outflows. Industry data showed that over $730 million was liquidated during the sell-off. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated that Bitcoin is in a multi-month bearish phase, noting that active institutional adoption and increased regulatory clarity may have led to investor overconfidence.

European equity markets traded without a single trend on Tuesday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.07%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.02%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.02%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) ended at a negative 0.26%. On Wednesday, European markets opened lower, influenced by a global sell-off in tech stocks amid growing fears of potential disruptions in key industries due to AI developments. Investors in Europe are also awaiting the release of January Eurozone inflation data to gauge future monetary policy steps. The ECB and the Bank of England will announce their decisions on Thursday, with the market consensus expecting rates to remain unchanged.

On Tuesday, the silver market recorded a price surge of more than 10%, bringing quotes to $87.5 per ounce. Despite the volatility, the geopolitical risk premium remains high. Markets are closely monitoring preparations for talks between the US and Iran scheduled for Friday. Simultaneously, tensions persist on the Eastern European front: Ukraine has stated its readiness to resume peace talks amid another escalation of missile strikes by the Russian Federation.

Platinum (XPT) has once again consolidated above $2,200 per ounce, as investors actively bought the metal following a recent sell-off where quotes dipped below $2,000 for the first time since December. The sharp volatility resulted from profit-taking after last week’s record rally and was intensified by Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, whom the market views as a more hawkish candidate. However, downside potential remains limited by fundamental supply factors – the platinum market remains in a structural deficit, and mining in South Africa (accounting for about 70% of global production) is constrained by chronic underinvestment and operational issues.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped 3.92%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.26%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.22%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.89%.

On Wednesday, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) declined to 0.603 USD, retreating from a nearly seven-month high following mixed labor market data that strengthened expectations for the RBNZ to hold interest rates steady. The Q4 unemployment rate rose to 5.4%, the highest since 2015 and slightly above both the previous figure and market expectations of 5.3%. Money markets indicate that the cash rate will likely remain at 2.25% until at least September, with the probability of a 25-basis-point hike by that time estimated at approximately 78%.

The offshore yuan (CNH) held near 6.93 per dollar, remaining close to its highest level since May 2023, amid improved outlooks for the currency and strengthening market sentiment. Major international investment banks have become more optimistic about the yuan’s potential after it firmly consolidated below the key 7.00 level at the end of last year. Throughout 2025, the yuan strengthened by approximately 4.5% against the US dollar, supported by a weakening Greenback and growing confidence in China’s macroeconomic stabilization.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,917.81 −58.63 (−0.84%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,240.99 −166.67 (−0.34%)

DAX (DE40) 24,780.79 −16.73 (−0.07%)

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News feed for: 2026.02.04

  • Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
  • Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
  • China RatingDog Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
  • Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
  • Eurozone Inflation Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – WTI (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Gold is Back in the Black: Geopolitics Dictates Conditions Again

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold, on Wednesday, returned above the key level of 5000 USD per ounce and has already approached 5067 USD. The precious metal continues to grow after jumping more than 6% in the previous session, marking the strongest daily increase since 2008. The quotes were supported by purchases following a decline after a sharp correction at the beginning of the week.

Geopolitical risks gave an additional impetus to the precious metal. After US forces shot down an Iranian drone near an aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, demand for defensive assets intensified. At the same time, President Donald Trump stated that diplomatic contacts continue, and the White House confirmed the US-Iran talks scheduled for Friday.

Expectations of rapid Fed rate cuts have eased somewhat since the nomination of Kevin Warsh to head the Fed. Nevertheless, the markets are still pricing in two rate cuts – probably in the middle of the year and later in 2026.

Separately, it is noted that the publication of key US labour market statistics, including JOLTS data and the monthly employment report, will be postponed due to the partial government shutdown. The House voted on Tuesday on the Senate-approved stopgap budget.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart for gold, after completing a powerful uptrend and reaching a peak around 5600, the market entered a sharp correction. The decline was impulsive, as evidenced by the expansion of Bollinger Bands – a sign of panic selling. The minimum was noted in the 4440–4450 zone, from where the technical rebound began. Current prices are recovering but remain below the Bollinger median line. The structure is still corrective, with increased volatility and a predominance of downside risks.

On the H1 chart, after a landslide downward movement, a base and a sequence of higher minima have formed – local stabilisation. The price is trading in a narrow upward channel and gradually moving towards the 5050-5100 resistance zone. However, the recovery looks technical. As long as the quotes are below key resistance and the median line of the higher timeframe, the rebound remains vulnerable to a resumption of selling.

Conclusion

In summary, gold’s sharp recovery is primarily a technical rebound from oversold conditions, supercharged by a sudden flare-up in geopolitical tensions. While the move is significant, the technical structure across timeframes suggests it remains a corrective bounce within a larger downtrend, not a confirmed reversal. The rally is vulnerable as long as prices trade below key higher-timeframe resistance. The fundamental landscape remains mixed, with delayed US data creating uncertainty and revised, but still present, Fed easing expectations providing a floor. Near-term direction will hinge on the evolution of Middle East diplomacy and gold’s ability to breach critical technical ceilings.

 

By RoboForex Analytical Department

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

The world is in water bankruptcy, UN scientists report – here’s what that means

By Kaveh Madani, United Nations University 

The world is now using so much fresh water amid the consequences of climate change that it has entered an era of water bankruptcy, with many regions no longer able to bounce back from frequent water shortages.

About 4 billion people – nearly half the global population – live with severe water scarcity for at least one month a year, without access to sufficient water to meet all of their needs. Many more people are seeing the consequences of water deficit: dry reservoirs, sinking cities, crop failures, water rationing and more frequent wildfires and dust storms in drying regions.

Water bankruptcy signs are everywhere, from Tehran, where droughts and unsustainable water use have depleted reservoirs the Iranian capital relies on, adding fuel to political tensions, to the U.S., where water demand has outstripped the supply in the Colorado River, a crucial source of drinking water and irrigation for seven states.

A woman fills containers with water from a well. cows are behind her on a dry landscape.
Droughts have made finding water for cattle more difficult and have led to widespread malnutrition in parts of Ethiopia in recent years. In 2022, UNICEF estimated that as many as 600,000 children would require treatment for severe malnutrition.
Demissew Bizuwerk/UNICEF Ethiopia, CC BY

Water bankruptcy is not just a metaphor for water deficit. It is a chronic condition that develops when a place uses more water than nature can reliably replace, and when the damage to the natural assets that store and filter that water, such as aquifers and wetlands, becomes hard to reverse.

A new study I led with the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health concludes that the world has now gone beyond temporary water crises. Many natural water systems are no longer able to return to their historical conditions. These systems are in a state of failure – water bankruptcy.

Kaveh Madani, director of the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, explains the concept of “water bankruptcy.” TVRI World.

What water bankruptcy looks like in real life

In financial bankruptcy, the first warning signs often feel manageable: late payments, borrowed money and selling things you hoped to keep. Then the spiral tightens.

Water bankruptcy has similar stages.

At first, we pull a little more groundwater during dry years. We use bigger pumps and deeper wells. We transfer water from one basin to another. We drain wetlands and straighten rivers to make space for farms and cities.

Then the hidden costs show up. Lakes shrink year after year. Wells need to go deeper. Rivers that once flowed year-round turn seasonal. Salty water creeps into aquifers near the coast. The ground itself starts to sink.

How the Aral Sea shrank from 2000 to 2011. It was once closer to oval, covering the light-colored areas as recently as the 1980s, but overuse for agriculture by multiple countries drew it down.
NASA

That last one, subsidence, often surprises people. But it’s a signature of water bankruptcy. When groundwater is overpumped, the underground structure, which holds water almost like a sponge, can collapse. In Mexico City, land is sinking by about 10 inches (25 centimeters) per year. Once the pores become compacted, they can’t simply be refilled.

The Global Water Bankruptcy report, published on Jan. 20, 2026, documents how widespread this is becoming. Groundwater extraction has contributed to significant land subsidence over more than 2.3 million square miles (6 million square kilometers), including urban areas where close to 2 billion people live. Jakarta, Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City are among the well-known examples in Asia.

A large sinkhole near farm fields.
A sinkhole in Turkey’s agricultural heartland shows how the landscape can collapse when more groundwater is extracted than nature can replenish.
Ekrem07, 2023, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

Agriculture is the world’s biggest water user, responsible for about 70% of the global freshwater withdrawals. When a region goes water bankrupt, farming becomes more difficult and more expensive. Farmers lose jobs, tensions rise and national security can be threatened.

About 3 billion people and more than half of global food production are concentrated in areas where water storage is already declining or unstable. More than 650,000 square miles (1.7 million square kilometers) of irrigated cropland are under high or very high water stress. That threatens the stability of food supplies around the world.

Droughts are also increasing in duration, frequency and intensity as global temperatures rise. Over 1.8 billion people – nearly 1 in 4 humans – dealt with drought conditions at various times from 2022 to 2023.

These numbers translate into real problems: higher food prices, hydroelectricity shortages, health risks, unemployment, migration pressures, unrest and conflicts.

Is the world ready to cope with water-related national security risks? CNN.

How did we get here?

Every year, nature gives each region a water income, depositing rain and snow. Think of this like a checking account. This is how much water we receive each year to spend and share with nature.

When demand rises, we might borrow from our savings account. We take out more groundwater than will be replaced. We steal the share of water needed by nature and drain wetlands in the process. That can work for a while, just as debt can finance a wasteful lifestyle for a while.

Those long-term water sources are now disappearing. The world has lost more than 1.5 million square miles (4.1 million square kilometers) of natural wetlands over five decades. Wetlands don’t just hold water. They also clean it, buffer floods and support plants and wildlife.

Water quality is also declining. Pollution, saltwater intrusion and soil salinization can result in water that is too dirty and too salty to use, contributing to water bankruptcy.

A map shows most of Africa, South Asia and large parts of the Western U.S. have high levels of water-related risks.
Overall water-risk scores reflect the aggregate value of water quantity, water quality and regulatory and reputational risks to water supplies. Higher values indicate greater water-related risks.
United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, based on Aqueduct 4.0, CC BY

Climate change is exacerbating the situation by reducing precipitation in many areas of the world. Warming increases the water demand of crops and the need for electricity to pump more water. It also melts glaciers that store fresh water.

Despite these problems, nations continue to increase water withdrawals to support the expansion of cities, farmland, industries and now data centers.

Not all water basins and nations are water bankrupt, but basins are interconnected through trade, migration, climate and other key elements of nature. Water bankruptcy in one area will put more pressure on others and can increase local and international tensions.

What can be done?

Financial bankruptcy ends by transforming spending. Water bankruptcy needs the same approach:

  • Stop the bleeding: The first step is admitting the balance sheet is broken. That means setting water use limits that reflect how much water is actually available, rather than just drilling deeper and shifting the burden to the future.
  • Protect natural capital – not just the water: Protecting wetlands, restoring rivers, rebuilding soil health and managing groundwater recharge are not just nice-to-haves. They are essential to maintaining healthy water supplies, as is a stable climate.
A woman pushes a wheelbarrow with a contain filled with freshwater. The ocean is behind her in the view.
In small island states like the Maldives, sea-level rise threatens water supplies when salt water gets into underground aquifers, ruining wells.
UNDP Maldives 2021, CC BY
  • Use less, but do it fairly: Managing water demand has become unavoidable in many places, but water bankruptcy plans that cut supplies to the poor while protecting the powerful will fail. Serious approaches include social protections, support for farmers to transition to less water-intensive crops and systems, and investment in water efficiency.
  • Measure what matters: Many countries still manage water with partial information. Satellite remote sensing can monitor water supplies and trends, and provide early warnings about groundwater depletion, land subsidence, wetland loss, glacier retreat and water quality decline.
  • Plan for less water: The hardest part of bankruptcy is psychological. It forces us to let go of old baselines. Water bankruptcy requires redesigning cities, food systems and economies to live within new limits before those limits tighten further.

With water, as with finance, bankruptcy can be a turning point. Humanity can keep spending as if nature offers unlimited credit, or it can learn to live within its hydrological means.The Conversation

About the Author: 

Kaveh Madani, Director of the Institute for Water, Environment and Health, United Nations University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

3 things to know about Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nod for Fed chair

By D. Brian Blank, Mississippi State University and Brandy Hadley, Appalachian State University 

After months of speculation, President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh on Jan. 30, 2026, to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve.

If confirmed by Congress, Warsh will inherit leadership of the U.S. central bank at a delicate time. For months, current Fed Chair Jerome Powell has come under attack from the Trump administration for failing to heed the president’s call for lower interest rates. The fight has put into question the central bank’s independence and its role in stewarding the economy.

Powell’s term as chair will end in mid-May, leaving his successor to navigate an economy that has improved on some fronts but remains uneven and uncertain.

But what should America expect from the next Fed chair? Here are three things to note about Trump’s nominee.

1. He is a familiar face …

Warsh brings deep experience with monetary policymaking to the role.

A graduate of Stanford University and Harvard Law School, he served as special assistant to the president for economic policy and executive secretary of the White House National Economic Council under President George W. Bush before becoming one of the youngest members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Warsh is no newcomer to discussions about Federal Reserve leadership. He was a finalist for the job in 2017, when Trump instead appointed Powell. Trump has since stated that he made a mistake by not selecting Warsh then – though clashes between Trump and Powell may have influenced that view.

Warsh’s credentials are unquestionable. As a governor of the Federal Reserve Board from 2006 to 2011, he worked closely with other policymakers and with Wall Street during the global financial crisis of 2008. Since departing the Fed, he has returned to Stanford as a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution and a lecturer at the Graduate School of Business, as well as a member of the Panel of Economic Advisers of the Congressional Budget Office.

He also has ties to the finance industry. He began his career in mergers and acquisitions at Morgan Stanley and, since leaving the Fed, has worked as a partner at Duquesne Family Office, an investment firm that manages the personal wealth of hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller and other investors.

In 2016, Trump included Warsh in an economic advisory group assembled during his transition. Critics of Warsh’s nomination point toward his father-in-law, Ronald Lauder, a college friend and donor of the president, as evidence of politicization.

2. … with evolving monetary views

The big question people have is what a Warsh Fed would mean for monetary policy – that is, is it likely to play tight or loose with rates.

When the economy is growing quickly, like in 2021, the Federal Reserve tightens policy by raising interest rates to avoid the kind of economic growth that may not be sustainable long term and can lead to bubbles. However, during downturns, like in 2008 or 2020, the economic policy that can provide a backstop for the economy is looser. The Fed tends to lower rates in these situations, which supports growth.

Warsh’s views on monetary policy have long been considered hawkish, meaning he is inclined toward tighter policy and generally higher interest rates to keep inflation in check, even at the expense of slower economic growth. During his previous tenure at the Fed, he signaled concern about expansive monetary tools such as quantitative easing, in which the central bank buys Treasurys and other securities to stimulate the economy. This resulted in what Warsh called a “bloated” Fed balance sheet that held almost US$9 trillion of debt at its peak in 2022.

In recent public remarks leading up to his nomination, however, he has increasingly aligned in part with Trump’s push for lower interest rates and discussed establishing a new Treasury-Fed Accord, like in 1951, when Fed independence from fiscal authorities such as the Treasury Department was established.

3. His nod highlights fight over Fed independence

A central question surrounding this nomination is whether it promotes the politicization of the Federal Reserve.

The Fed’s independence from day-to-day political pressure has long been viewed as a cornerstone of U.S. economic policymaking. Decisions about interest rates, inflation control and financial stability are insulated from electoral politics for that reason. A truly independent Fed can resist making decisions that provide a short-term economic bump – something incumbent governments tend to like – but may lead to longer-term economic pain down the road.

The Fed tends to use its monetary policy tools carefully. Yet politicians tend to want looser monetary policy so the economy grows fast and they get credit for it.

And Warsh’s nomination can be seen in the context of a broader push from the executive branch to exert greater influence over monetary policy. Given Trump’s public criticism of Powell and vocal calls for his early departure, the president almost certainly intended to nominate someone who would lower interest rates according to preferences stated by the administration.

Critics of the nomination have argued that Warsh has a tendency to be more opportunistic with his policy views than Powell and other economists, who try to ignore political preferences.

As such, Warsh’s nomination encapsulates more than just a leadership transition. It highlights the ongoing tensions between political priorities and the traditional economic playbook, between short-term growth pressures and long-term stability, and between institutional independence and democratic accountability.

Time will tell whether he turns out to be hawkish or politically motivated as chair, if he is confirmed.The Conversation

About the Author:

D. Brian Blank, Associate Professor of Finance, Mississippi State University and Brandy Hadley, Associate Professor of Finance and Distinguished Scholar of Applied Investments, Appalachian State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.