Author Archive for InvestMacro

How natural hydrogen, hiding deep in the Earth, could serve as a new energy source

By Promise Longe, University of Kansas 

In the search for more, new and cleaner sources of energy, a largely untapped resource is emerging: natural hydrogen.

Unlike hydrogen produced from industrial processes, natural hydrogen forms through geological reactions that occur normally within the Earth’s crust, meaning it costs nothing to make – though it costs some amount to extract – and does not emit any carbon dioxide or other human‑caused pollutants.

Today, hydrogen is used mainly in oil refining, production of ammonia for fertilizer and to make methanol, which can be a fuel and an ingredient in plastics. Emerging technologies are making hydrogen a viable fuel for cars, planes, ships and factories. Hydrogen demand around the world is projected to grow from around 90 million metric tons in 2022 to more than 500 million metric tons by 2050. Some of that supply could come from nature itself, as well.

To describe each source of hydrogen, energy researchers like me, and the energy industry as a whole, use a range of colors. In general, “gray” and “blue” hydrogen are made by burning fossil fuels, with blue hydrogen incorporating technology that captures the carbon dioxide produced in the process to reduce emissions. “Green” hydrogen comes from renewable‑energy‑powered electrolysis, using electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. “White” or “gold” hydrogen occurs naturally underground and can be extracted directly with minimal processing.

How natural hydrogen forms

Natural hydrogen originates from several geological processes. The most well‑studied mechanism is serpentinization, a reaction where water interacts with iron‑rich rocks known as ultramafics, releasing hydrogen gas.

Serpentinization occurs in diverse settings around the world, including ocean ridges and continental formations such as the Midcontinent Rift in North America, a band of mostly igneous rocks with some sedimentary rocks mixed in, which extends from Minnesota through the Lake Superior region and southward toward Kansas.

Another process, thermogenic hydrogen formation, occurs in deep sedimentary basins when organic material decomposes under high temperatures, roughly 480 to 930 degrees Fahrenheit (250 to 500 degrees Celsius). These reactions can also produce hydrogen alongside other gases, such as methane or nitrogen.

Because these processes happen over millions of years, using natural hydrogen generally requires far less energy than human‑made methods such as electrolysis, which consumes roughly 50 kilowatt-hours of electricity per kilogram of hydrogen produced – enough to power an average home for a day or two, and more than the energy that kilogram of hydrogen can provide. Natural hydrogen is already made – it just has to be collected.

The science and the search

Researchers and exploration companies are developing methods similar to those used in oil and gas exploration to locate potential hydrogen accumulations. They are looking at three types of geological formations:

  1. Focused seepage, where hydrogen seeps naturally through cracks and faults. It tends to reach the surface and disperse quickly, making large-scale capture difficult.
  2. Coal beds, where hydrogen binds to coal layers, offer higher potential density but pose difficulties for extraction. The hydrogen must first be separated from the coal and then flow through tight rock layers to the extraction point.
  3. Reservoir‑trap‑seal systems, comparable to the rock formations that trap natural gas underground, are considered the most promising for commercial production because they can concentrate large volumes of hydrogen in well‑defined, drillable structures. However, they remain largely unproven in practice: The basic idea is well established, and geologists have a good sense of where those formations might occur, but they still lack detailed data on how much hydrogen these formations actually contain and how easy it would be to extract.

Massive reserves – somewhere

The U.S. Geological Survey estimates there could be more than 5 trillion metric tons of geological hydrogen underground around the world. But only a small fraction of that is estimated to be recoverable, both technically and in terms of reasonable costs.

However, even 2% of that total would be more than all proven natural gas reserves on the planetand enough to meet projected demand for the next 200 years, even accounting for increased consumption.

All of that reserve has built up over billions of years. The Earth naturally produces between 15 million and 31 million metric tons of natural hydrogen each year – less than 1% of the amount expected to be needed each year by 2050. But only a fraction of that is likely to be efficiently captured.

So geologic hydrogen is likely best viewed as a very large but ultimately finite source of low‑carbon energy that can substantially complement, but not replace, other energy sources, including various methods of producing hydrogen.

Global hot spots

Currently, only one hydrogen field, at Mali’s Bourakébougou village, produces natural hydrogen commercially, supplying tens of tons of hydrogen per year to power the village.

However, the number of companies exploring for natural hydrogen has increased rapidly, from roughly 10 in 2020 to about 40 by the end of 2023, according to Rystad Energy and related government and research‑lab reports.

Apart from that one field in Mali, exploration is concentrated in the United States, Australia, Canada and several European countries.

In the U.S., HyTerra’s Nemaha Project in Kansas has confirmed subsurface hydrogen concentrations reaching more than 90% hydrogen and 3% helium. The higher the concentration of hydrogen, the more efficient and cost‑effective it is to recover. HyTerra is also exploring elsewhere in the Midwest and Rocky Mountain regions.

A close-up image of a rock that is mottled in shades of green and gray.
The geologic process of forming serpentinite can produce hydrogen.
James St. John via Flickr, CC BY

Technical barriers

Transforming geological hydrogen into a commercial energy source presents tough scientific and technical challenges. Detecting and measuring hydrogen underground is difficult because of its small molecular size and reactivity with other elements in the rocks.

And if what’s found is low concentrations of hydrogen mixed with large amounts of other gases, it can be costly, even prohibitively so, to separate and purify the hydrogen before it can be used.

Economics and efficiency

The economic promise of natural hydrogen lies in its simplicity.

Because geological processes already performed the production work, early estimates suggest that extraction costs could be one‑tenth the production costs for other traditional hydrogen generation techniques – or possibly even less than that.

But those figures are based on the small amounts of hydrogen found so far and may not represent future large‑scale performance. Producing enough to serve commercial demand will require discovering large, high-quality accumulations.

As one leading research group noted, “This is not a gold rush.” It’s a careful exploration for scientific evidence that could lead, in time, to an abundant, carbon‑free and continuous energy source that complements other renewable energy sources.The Conversation

About the Author: 

Promise Longe, Ph.D. Candidate in Chemical and Petroleum Engineering, University of Kansas

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

US-Iran deal on the brink of collapse. Market prices geopolitical premium into oil

By JustMarkets 

The US stock market traded mixed on Thursday. By the end of trading, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.03%, the S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.54%, and the technology-heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 1.18%. The primary event of the day was the paradoxical reaction to Nvidia’s earnings report: despite strong financial results, the company’s shares tumbled by 5.5%. Investors began to harbor serious doubts that massive capital investments in artificial intelligence would pay off in the long term, triggering a chain reaction and a decline across other chipmakers. Amid the flight from the overheated AI sector, a notable rotation of capital toward more stable and defensive assets was observed.

Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to 17.2 per dollar. The main blow came from new US tariffs: following the Supreme Court’s February 20 decision, the Trump administration introduced a 15% global import surcharge. This sharply reduced the peso’s attractiveness, as Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner with deeply integrated supply chains. The situation was exacerbated by weak labor market data: in January 2026, Mexico lost 8,100 formal jobs, marking the worst start to a year since 2014.

Equity markets in Europe rose sharply. The German DAX (DE40) increased by 0.45%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.72%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.19%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished 0.37% higher.

WTI oil prices demonstrated a sharp reversal, climbing 1.5% to the $66.30 per barrel level. Earlier in the session, prices had fallen nearly 3% amid optimistic comments from Omani mediators; however, market sentiment shifted abruptly following a harsh statement from Tehran. Iranian state media reported that the country would not allow the removal of enriched uranium, a key US demand, placing the Geneva negotiations on the brink of collapse. The situation is heating up as the deadline set by Donald Trump approaches: the President gave only a few days to reach a deal, threatening military action otherwise. The market immediately priced in a geopolitical premium, fearing supply disruptions from a major OPEC producer. At the same time, fundamental factors remain bearish: Saudi Arabian exports hit a three-year high, and on Sunday, March 1, OPEC+ countries will discuss increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in April.

US natural gas (XNG) prices fell by more than 1.5%, dropping to the $2.82 per MMBtu mark. This is the lowest price level since last September. The primary bearish factor was the weekly report from the EIA, which showed an extremely weak inventory reduction of only 52 billion cubic feet (BCF). For comparison, in the same period in 2025, the withdrawal was 252 bcf, while the five-year average stands at 168 BCF. This dynamic led to a sharp shift in the market balance.
Asian markets traded with mixed results yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.29%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) showed a decline of 0.38%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.44%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.51%.

Investors moved into wait-and-see mode ahead of the “Two Sessions” in Beijing (March 4-11), where economic targets for 2026 will be established. The main event will be the presentation of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), which will define China’s strategy for achieving technological independence and supporting domestic demand. The market is pricing in a budget deficit of 4% of GDP and a growth target of around 5%, which is keeping quotes from a deep correction.

On Friday, the Australian dollar (AUD) was holding near $0.711, approaching a three-year high. The “aussie” has become the top performer among G10 currencies in 2026 (+6% year-to-date), driven by the aggressive stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Following an unexpected jump in inflation, the market prices in an 80% probability of a rate hike in May, expecting it to peak at 4.10%. Next week, traders’ attention will shift to GDP data and manufacturing PMI indices. If the economy proves resilient to high rates, the Australian dollar could consolidate above the 0.72 level.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,908.86 −37.27 (−0.54%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,499.20 +17.05 (+0.034%)

DAX (DE40) 25,289.02 +113.08 (+0.45%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,846.70 +40.29 +(0.37%)

USD Index 97.76 +0.06% (+0.06%)

News feed for: 2026.02.27

  • Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
  • Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
  • Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
  • Switzerland Retal Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2); – CHF (LOW)
  • Switzerland GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+2); – CHF (MED)
  • Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2); – CHF (LOW)
  • German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
  • German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • Canada GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
  • US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
  • US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Week In Review: Nvidia fails to dazzle, Bitcoin hits $70k

By ForexTime 

  • Nvidia ↓ over 5% post earnings
  • AI giant delivers 73% surge in Q4 revenue
  • Foreign leaders on standby after Supreme Court ruling
  • Bitcoin touches $70,000 
  • Dollar set for bullish breakout above 98.00? 

The world’s most valuable company delivered a 73% surge in fourth quarter revenue and beat analyst estimates.

However, it’s shares tumbled as much as 5.6% when US markets opened on Thursday – marking its biggest intraday drop since November 2025.

Despite the blowout results, investors remain concerned over the outlook for AI with growing questions about massive AI spending. Traders have also been spooked by the threat from AI disruption to major sectors.

Reported earnings:

  • $1.76 (+98% YoY) – Earnings per share (EPS) vs $1.54 est.
  • $68.10B (+73% YoY) – Revenue vs $66.13B est.

With Nvidia’s earnings wrapping up earnings season, the focus returns to global trade developments and geopolitical risk.

Trump’s tariff fiasco

Earlier this week, Trump’s global 10% tariffs went into effect, bringing trade uncertainty back on the table.

Last Friday’s Supreme Court ruling has created fresh confusion over the volley of trade deals negotiated by the United States. Foreign leaders are on standby with the EU moving to freeze their trade deal with the United States.

Bitcoin kisses $70,000

Bitcoin surged toward $70,000, snapping a three-day losing streak as global risk sentiment improved.

Still, the “OG” crypto is down almost 15% month-to-date – its worst month since November 2025. Despite the recent rebound, prices are still down more than 40% from its peak and down almost 50% from its October high of over $126,000.

Prices remain in a range with support at $60,000 and resistance $70,000. A breakout could be on the horizon.

USDInd eyeing bullish breakout?

It’s been a choppy week for the dollar with prices repeatedly testing resistance at 98.00.

On one side, the dollar has been pressured by renewed trade uncertainty amid Trump’s tariff fiasco. However, bulls are drawing strength from cooling Fed cut bets in the face of better-than-expected data.

A solid breakout above 98.00 may open a path toward the 200-day SMA and 99.00.


 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

 

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

USD/JPY Declines, but the Overall Outlook for the Yen Remains Hazy

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY is trading lower at 155.79 on Friday. Meanwhile, the yen remains under pressure at the end of the week. It is on track to record a second consecutive weekly decline amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy.

This week, the Japanese government nominated two academics known for favouring loose monetary policy to the BoJ board. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, following a meeting with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, expressed concerns about the possibility of further interest rate hikes.

In contrast, board member Hajime Takata, who holds a more hawkish stance, has called for additional policy tightening. He also indicated that the bank’s price stability target is nearly achieved.

Governor Ueda himself noted that the BoJ will carefully assess incoming economic data at its March and April meetings, leaving the door open to a potential short-term rate hike.

Economic statistics are also influencing market expectations. Inflation in Tokyo has slowed to its lowest level in over a year, partly due to government subsidies for utilities. This has reinforced expectations that the central bank may refrain from tightening policy in the near term.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is forming a consolidation range around the 156.15 level. A decline towards 155.50 is expected today, after which a corrective move back towards 156.15 may follow. A breakout above this range could open the way to further gains towards 157.50. Conversely, a break below the range would signal a continuation of the downward move, initially towards 154.18, with scope to extend towards 151.82. Technically, this bearish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains above zero but is pointing firmly lower.

On the H1 chart, the pair has broken below the 156.15 level and is forming a downward wave towards 155.40. A subsequent correction back to 156.15 cannot be ruled out. This short-term bearish bias is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing lower.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is declining amid persistent uncertainty regarding the Bank of Japan’s next policy move. Market expectations are being pulled between hawkish signals from some board members and more cautious communication from the leadership, reinforced by softer Tokyo inflation data. Technical analysis suggests scope for further short-term downside, although a corrective bounce remains possible.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

British FTSE 100 hits new record. AUD emerges as G10 currency favorite

By JustMarkets 

The US stock market demonstrated steady growth on Wednesday. By the close of trading, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.76%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.77%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) finished 1.09% higher. The highlight of the day was the Nvidia earnings report, which exceeded expectations for both profit and revenue. This served as a vital signal for investors: the “AI bubble,” much discussed in recent weeks, has not burst, and real demand for chips remains consistently high.

Equity markets in Europe surged on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.76%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.47%, and the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) climbed 1.49%. The British FTSE 100 (UK100) gained 1.18%, reaching a new all-time high. The primary driver of the rally was the banking sector, led by HSBC, whose shares skyrocketed 7.6% following a strong financial report. The commodities sector also significantly contributed to the index’s growth amid rising prices for copper and metals.

Banking analysts predict stability for the Swiss franc (CHF) in the short term, viewing it as the ultimate safe-haven asset amid trade wars and geopolitical chaos. Switzerland’s strong fiscal indicators and current account surplus make the franc resilient to market shocks. However, this strength poses serious challenges for the domestic economy. Inflation in Switzerland sits at a critically low level (0.1%), effectively signaling a risk of deflation. Consequently, the SNB may either move to cut rates into negative territory or, more likely, conduct currency interventions by selling the franc to curb its exchange rate.

On Wednesday, silver prices (XAG) jumped more than 3%, closely approaching the psychological mark of $90 per ounce. The growth was driven by a confluence of factors: the implementation of the US 10% tariff, threats to raise it to 15%, and preparations for the decisive round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva. Investors returned to silver as a hedge against trade war risks and potential escalation in the Middle East.

Platinum prices (XPT) are trading above $2,300 per ounce on Thursday, hitting a four-week high. The precious metals market remains on edge due to large-scale US sanctions against 30 Iranian entities and the largest US military buildup in the Persian Gulf since 2003. Investors are utilizing platinum as a defensive asset ahead of the crucial Geneva talks, fearing that a diplomatic failure could lead to direct military conflict. Fundamentally, platinum is supported by the “substitution effect” for palladium and a chronic supply deficit from South Africa.

WTI oil prices accelerated their decline on Wednesday, dropping to $65.35 per barrel. The primary bearish factor was the EIA report, which recorded a shocking increase in crude oil inventories of 15.99 million barrels for the week. This is the largest build in three years, exceeding analyst expectations tenfold and neutralizing concerns regarding a supply deficit.

Asian markets traded with mixed results yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) surged by 2.20%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.65%, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.66%. The Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 1.17%.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar (AUD) made a powerful move to 0.713 USD, reaching its highest levels since August 2022. Markets are nearly certain of an RBA rate hike to 4.10% (with an 80% probability for a May move) after January inflation figures unpleasantly surprised the regulator. The “aussie” currently looks like the favorite among G10 currencies as Australian government bond yields are rising faster than their US counterparts.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) climbed above the 0.60 USD mark on Thursday, marking its third consecutive session of gains. The primary driver of the “kiwi’s” strength was a localized weakening of the US dollar: investors began to doubt the sustainability of Trump’s trade strategy after the Supreme Court blocked some of his initiatives, prompting temporary profit-taking on long USD positions. Nevertheless, the upside potential for the NZD is limited by the RBNZ’s dovish stance. Governor Anna Breman has signaled that the economy can recover without overheating, depriving the RBNZ of incentives to hike rates in the near future.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,946.14 +56.07 (+0.81%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,482.27 +307.77 (+0.63%)

DAX (DE40) 25,175.94 +189.69 (+0.76%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,806.41 +125.82 (+1.18%)

USD Index 97.69 -0.15% (-0.16%)

News feed for: 2026.02.26

  • Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:30 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

EUR/USD in Positive Territory: Dollar Weakness Presents Opportunities for Investors

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD rose for the second consecutive day and is approaching 1.1819. Sentiment towards the US dollar remains under pressure amid uncertainty over US tariff policy, which is eroding confidence in the American currency.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that tariff rates for individual countries could be increased from the current 10% to 15% or higher, but did not specify the criteria for such changes.

President Donald Trump adopted a measured tone on tariffs in his annual address to Congress. At the same time, he made it clear that he would not change his strategy, despite the Supreme Court’s decision to cancel his large-scale “reciprocal” duties.

In terms of monetary policy, the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting.

Additional caution stems from ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran on the nuclear program, the next round of which is taking place today in Geneva.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming a consolidation range around 1.1818. An upward move towards 1.1862 appears likely, with scope for an extension towards 1.1888. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD indicator: its signal line remains above zero and is pointing higher, reflecting sustained bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair is developing the next upward wave towards 1.1860. After reaching this level, a pullback towards 1.1818 could follow, before a renewed advance towards 1.1888. Technically, this scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above 50 and rising towards 80.

Conclusion

In summary, EUR/USD continues its gradual recovery as persistent uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy weighs on dollar sentiment. While Trump’s Congressional address offered no clarity on the trade front, and ongoing US-Iran negotiations add a layer of geopolitical caution, the technical picture remains constructive. The pair is building momentum within a consolidation range, with upside targets at 1.1862 and 1.1888. Both MACD and Stochastic indicators support the bullish bias, suggesting further gains are likely in the near term. The key level to watch is 1.1818 – holding above this support keeps the upward trajectory intact, while a break below could signal a temporary pause. For now, the path of least resistance appears higher.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

RBA may hike rates as early as May. Natural gas prices plunge to a 4-month low

By JustMarkets 

The US stock market demonstrated growth on Tuesday. By the close of trading, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.76%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.77%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 1.09%. The main driver of optimism was a shift in the perception of risks associated with artificial intelligence: investors moved from fears regarding the displacement of traditional software to a realization of AI’s potential as a powerful supplement to existing business processes. The true victor of the day was AMD, whose shares soared by 8.8% (peaking at a 14% gain) following the announcement of a massive contract with Meta. This deal, bolstered by warrants for Meta to purchase AMD shares, confirms AMD’s status as a serious competitor to Nvidia.

Equity markets in Europe mostly declined on Tuesday. The German DAX (DE40) edged down by 0.02%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.26%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.54%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at negative 0.04%. After a sharp fall the day before, the market entered a phase of cautious anticipation. Traders attempted to ignore the negative backdrop surrounding the AI sector, drawing optimism from the strong news out of Meta and awaiting tomorrow’s Nvidia report, which will be a defining moment for European tech stocks.

WTI oil prices recovered to $66.20 per barrel on Wednesday, breaking a two-day decline. The market has paused in anticipation of the third round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva: positive signals from Tehran regarding a readiness for a deal are clashing with Donald Trump’s harsh rhetoric. The primary factor of uncertainty remains security in the Strait of Hormuz, as any diplomatic failure threatens the transit of 20% of the world’s oil supply. Additional pressure on quotes is exerted by the implementation of the US 10% tariff. Traders fear that an escalation of trade wars and a possible hike in duties to 15% will slow global economic growth, inevitably leading to a drop in energy demand.

Silver prices (XAG) declined by nearly 1%, reaching $87.50 per ounce. Mass liquidation of assets on Chinese exchanges outweighed the global demand for safe-haven assets that arose amid the introduction of US 15% tariffs and expectations regarding the nuclear talks with Iran. The silver market remains in a correction phase following the shock collapse of 38% at the beginning of the month.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) fell below the $3 per MMBtu mark on Tuesday, reaching their lowest level since October. The primary factor for the decline was updated weather prognoses from NOAA, indicating abnormally high temperatures in the Western and Central states through the end of February. Weakening heating demand at the end of the winter season forced traders to reassess the likelihood of a fuel deficit, resulting in a sharp sell-off.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.87%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) showed a modest gain of 0.14%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.82%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.04%.
The economy of Hong Kong demonstrated robust growth of 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking its best performance in two years. Strengthening business confidence amid real estate market stabilization and the active implementation of AI technologies allowed the year to close with total GDP growth of 3.5%, significantly exceeding the 2024 result (2.6%). For 2026, growth rates are projected to remain in the range of 3.3-3.6%, provided that external trade frictions do not exert a critical impact on the logistics hub.

The Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened to 0.70 USD on Wednesday, reacting to unexpectedly high inflation data. The January figure of 3.8% (against projections of 3.7%) and an increase in core inflation to 3.4% confirmed market fears: price pressure in Australia remains persistent. Amid historically low unemployment and strong wage growth, these figures make the RBA the most “hawkish” among major central banks. Markets now see a 70% probability of a rate hike to 4.1% as early as May, with the prospect of another move in November.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,890.07 +52.32 (+0.77%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,174.50 +370.44 (+0.76%)

DAX (DE40) 24,986.25 −5.72 (−0.02%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,680.59 −4.15 (−0.04%)

USD Index 97.87 +0.16% (+0.16%)

News feed for: 2026.02.25

  • Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (HIGH)
  • German GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • German GfK Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
  • Hong Kong Inflation Rate (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2); – HKD (MED)
  • Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks at 10:40 (GMT+2); – AUD (LOW)
  • Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – WTI (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

GBP/USD Extends Gains for Fourth Consecutive Day as Investors Watch BoE Rate Outlook

By RoboForex Analytical Department

GBP/USD continues to rise on Wednesday, reaching 1.3516.

Following recent comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, investors are seeking additional clarification on his decision to keep the rate unchanged at the last meeting. The Monetary Policy Committee left the rate unchanged, with a narrow margin.

The market expects two rate cuts in 2026, taking the rate down to 3.25%. However, the timing of the easing remains uncertain. If Bailey signals the possibility of a cut as early as March, the market could begin pricing in more than 50bps of easing this year.

An additional source of pressure stems from US President Donald Trump’s trade policy. The baseline tariff of 10% has already entered into force. However, it remains unclear when an increase to 15% might be introduced.

The focus is also on the by-election in the Gorton and Denton constituency in Manchester, which is seen as an important test for Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the Labour Party. Political uncertainty is adding to sterling volatility.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a broad consolidation range around the 1.3500 level. Today, an expansion towards 1.3560 is possible. Subsequently, a correction towards 1.3494 may follow. After completing this correction, a new consolidation range is likely to form. If it breaks to the upside, the next target would be 1.3622. If it breaks to the downside, the next target may be 1.3383. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is below the zero level and pointing upward.

On the H1 GBP/USD chart, the market formed a compact consolidation range around 1.3500 and, following an upside breakout, is developing a wave structure towards 1.3560. Subsequently, a downward move towards 1.3500 cannot be ruled out. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is above the 50 level and pointing upward.

Conclusion

In summary, GBP/USD extends its recovery for a fourth consecutive session as markets await clearer signals from BoE Governor Bailey on the timing of potential rate cuts. While the baseline scenario anticipates two reductions this year, any dovish surprise could trigger further repricing. Technically, the pair is building momentum within a broad consolidation range, with near-term resistance at 1.3560 and support at 1.3494. A sustained break above 1.3560 would open the door to 1.3622, while a failure could result in a retest of lower-range levels. Political uncertainty from the upcoming by-election and ongoing US trade policy risks add further volatility. The near-term bias remains cautiously bullish, but direction will depend on Bailey’s tone and market interpretation.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Uranium Is Now a Critical Mineral, and This Co. Is On a Fast Track to US Production

Source: Streetwise Reports (2/9/26)

The U.S. introduces new initiatives aimed at forming a preferential trade bloc for critical minerals like uranium. This company is on a literal fast-track for its projects in the Southwest.

Last week, the U.S. introduced new initiatives aimed at forming a preferential trade bloc for critical minerals like uranium, including coordinated price floors, as part of efforts to counter China’s dominance in this essential market for technology and defense, according to a CNBC report on February 5 by Dylan Butts.

These plans were discussed at a “Critical Minerals Ministerial” in Washington, which included representatives from 54 countries, the European Union, and senior Trump administration officials. Following the event, Washington announced that it had signed bilateral critical minerals agreements with 11 countries, building on 10 similar agreements made over the past five months. Negotiations were also completed with an additional 17 nations.

The Trump administration’s new minerals stockpile initiative, known as “Project Vault,” can encompass any materials identified as “critical” by the U.S. Geological Survey, a White House official told CNBC, according to another February 3 report by Pippa Stevens and Spencer Kimball for the website. The agency, which is part of the Interior Department, lists over 50 minerals as critical, including rare earths, lithium, uranium, and copper. These minerals are considered essential for national security, economic stability, and supply chain resilience. According to the USGS, these minerals are crucial because they “underpin key industries, drive technological innovation, and support critical infrastructure vital for a modern American economy.”

The objectives of these agreements are to tackle pricing challenges, encourage development, create fairer markets, and expand access to financing in the critical minerals sector. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who hosted the Ministerial, also announced the creation of the “Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE)” on Wednesday. This partnership aims to coordinate critical mineral policy and projects.

“We have a number of countries that have signed on to that, and many more that we hope will do so… the purpose of FORGE is to foster collaboration and to build a network of partners across the world,” Rubio said.

FORGE will complement an earlier initiative between the U.S. and nine partners, known as “Pax Silica.” While Pax Silica focuses on safeguarding AI-related supply chains, FORGE is designed as a broader platform to coordinate critical mineral policy, pricing, and project development. Rubio highlighted the risks associated with the concentration of critical minerals in “one country,” implicitly referring to China, including geopolitical leverage and potential disruptions from pandemics or instability.

AI, Data Centers Begin Impacting Power Grids

Uranium is becoming one of the most important of these minerals. Predictions of increased electricity consumption from data centers are beginning to materialize, raising concerns about the impact on the power grid and the environment, according to a report by Benjamin Storrow for E&E News/Politico on December 24, 2025.

Commercial electricity demand, which serves as a proxy for data center power usage, rose by 2% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period last year, following a 3% increase in 2024. This marks a significant shift for the U.S. power sector, which had experienced flat electricity demand for much of the past two decades.

Demand is expected to climb even higher as the Trump administration and tech companies aim to outpace China in artificial intelligence development. The consulting firm Grid Strategies forecasts that peak electricity demand nationwide could rise by 166 gigawatts by 2030, equivalent to adding 15 New York Cities over the next five years.

“We’re now seeing in the data what we’ve all been talking about the last couple years,” said Rob Gramlich, CEO of Grid Strategies. He estimated that data centers would contribute to 55% of the growth in U.S. electricity demand over the next five years. The increasing power needs of data centers have become a political issue as electricity costs rise for consumers.

AI data centers and the electrification of various industries are driving a surge in power demand that exceeds global supply, prompting companies, policymakers, and investors to reconsider nuclear power, according to a research report by Morgan Stanley on August 28, 2025. Morgan Stanley Research projects 586 gigawatts (GW) of new global nuclear capacity by 2050, which is 53% higher than their previous forecast last year when analysts noted a “renaissance” in the industry. They now estimate that potential investments in the nuclear value chain could reach US$2.2 trillion by 2050, up from the initial US$1.5 trillion forecast. This increased momentum is expected to benefit several sectors, including uranium mining, nuclear power generation, and the construction of equipment and plants. “The nuclear renaissance has been building for some time already—with 22 nations pledging to triple nuclear capacity by 2050 at the COP28 summit in December 2023, plant life extensions in Europe, a strong pipeline in China, and Japan continuing to restart capacity,” says Tim Chan, Morgan Stanley’s Head of Asia Sustainability Research. “The dual imperatives of decarbonization and energy security are making the nuclear renaissance a truly global investment theme.”

While natural gas is currently the primary alternative to meet AI’s energy needs, technology companies are willing to pay a premium to transition to nuclear energy. “We believe natural gas will be the primary near-term solution for powering AI data centers due to its speed to market, reliability, and flexibility, while nuclear power represents a longer-term clean energy alternative that is likely to gradually increase in importance,” said Stephen Byrd, Morgan Stanley’s Global Head of Sustainability Research. “Gas and nuclear are likely to play complementary roles.”

Uranium Is Now a Critical Mineral

Last fall, the USGS released the final 2025 list of critical minerals deemed essential to mitigate potential risks from disrupted supply chains, reported Nick Mordowanec for Military.com on December 1, 2025. Ten new minerals were added, including uranium, bringing the total to 60.

“This is the most comprehensive, science-based assessment yet of the minerals our nation relies on,” said USGS Director Ned Mamula. “Critical minerals underpin industries worth trillions of dollars, and import dependence puts key sectors at risk. This work helps secure the materials needed for U.S. economic growth and technological leadership.”

Trump has called for a quadrupling of nuclear power by 2050, the article reported.

Christo Liebenberg, co-founder and president of the U.S.-based uranium enrichment company LIS Technologies, told Military.com that there is “huge market demand” for uranium to bolster a domestic electricity grid facing challenges from expanding AI data centers across the country.

He noted the significance of the critical list now including 60 minerals — more than half of the 118 elements on the periodic table.

“Being on that list, it’s clear that it triggers a whole set of advantages,” Liebenberg said. “That makes mining uranium in the U.S. a lot easier, faster, and more attractive to investors. It’s like flipping a switch that says, ‘OK, everybody, uranium is now important. Let’s make mining in the US easier, cheaper, faster, and more predictable.’ Of course, this is exactly what would stimulate production. But the thing is, it doesn’t stop just with mining. Being on that list actually has a ripple effect through the entire nuclear fuel supply chain.”

Key actions and impacts for uranium under the U.S. critical minerals framework include fast-tracked permitting, reduced foreign reliance, strategic stockpiling, improved support for the mining industry, and energy security.

Companies With Tangible Operational Progress in the Spotlight

The uranium sector enters 2026 at a pivotal moment where operational execution increasingly distinguishes credible investment opportunities from speculative ventures, according to Henry Mann writing for Crux Investor on January 27. Spot uranium prices reached US$100 per pound in January 2026, marking 17-month highs. However, equity valuations across the sector reflect ongoing institutional caution about timing mismatches between nuclear buildouts and the upstream uranium supply response.

In this context of structural demand growth and supply fragility, companies demonstrating tangible operational progress — such as permitting momentum — are positioning themselves to attract capital as the gap between operational reality and equity pricing narrows, Mann wrote.

Chris Frostad, CEO of Purepoint Uranium, explains the demand fundamentals, according to Mann: “When a reactor begins operation, it creates a customer relationship lasting 40 years or more. Reactors operate under strict refueling schedules, and utilities know precisely how much fuel they will require annually for years into the future.” The growth in artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centers adds incremental demand considerations, though existing reactor fleets provide the foundation of predictable consumption.

In 2025, utilities contracted for approximately 82-85 million pounds of uranium, while replacement requirements approached 150-180 million pounds. However, utility contracting does not follow smooth patterns, as buyers may contract for 250 million pounds in a single year when conditions align with their strategies.

Laramide Resources Ltd.

One company uniquely positioned to take advantage of these events is Laramide Resources Ltd. (LAM:TSX; LMRXF:OTCQX: LAM:ASX), a uranium developer with both in-situ and hard-rock deposits located in the southwestern United States and Australia.

In June 2025, Laramide announced that its advanced-stage uranium projects, Crownpoint-Churchrock and La Jara Mesa in New Mexico, were designated as FAST-41 covered projects by the Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council. This designation is part of the federal infrastructure permitting program established under Title 41 of the Fixing America’s Surface Transportation Act. It underscores the strategic importance of Laramide’s projects and streamlines the evaluation process.

The FAST-41 designation places these uranium projects among a select group of federally prioritized energy initiatives, receiving enhanced permitting coordination and transparency to support the Department of Energy’s domestic uranium reserve and the U.S. government’s broader energy-security goals.

“The project comprises two geographically distinct deposits: one at Crownpoint and the other at Churchrock,” the company said in a recent recap sent to Streetwise Reports. “They are unified under a single U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Source Material License. This regulatory status differentiates the project from many U.S. peers that remain at earlier permitting stages.”

Churchrock’s current NI 43-101 Inferred Mineral Resource is 50.8 million pounds U₃O₈ based on historic drilling consolidated into a modern database. Crownpoint adds an NI 43-101 Inferred Mineral Resource of 5.1 million pounds U₃O₈, also derived from historic datasets and interpreted for ISR-style mineralization geometry, the company said.

Laramide’s U.S. portfolio is “increasingly relevant against the backdrop of declining domestic uranium production and growing demand tied to nuclear energy, including life-extensions of existing reactors and new investments linked to data centers and advanced nuclear technologies,” Laramide said in the document. “With the majority of U.S. uranium supply currently imported, projects that are licensed, permitted, or moving visibly through federal processes have taken on heightened strategic importance.”

Analyst: Co. ‘Scans Very Well on Value’

Laramide is a uranium exploration and development company with projects in the western United States and Australia, according to Beacon Securities Analyst Michael Curran in an updated research note on November 3, 2025.

Crownpoint-Churchrock’s designation as a FAST-41 project is expected to streamline the permitting process as part of the U.S. government’s initiative to advance domestic critical mineral and metal projects toward production. This followed a similar designation for LAM’s La Jara Mesa project in early May, also in New Mexico.

“In mid-July, LAM’s Westmoreland project in Queensland, Australia, received a Mineral Development License (MDL), which allows Laramide to proceed with studies to advance the project towards a Mining Lease (ML) application,” the analyst wrote. “This work is likely to include metallurgical testing, environmental, engineering and design studies, as well as feasibility-related work.”

In July, Laramide raised gross proceeds of CA$12 million by issuing 20 million common shares at CA$0.60 each.

Beacon’s 12-month fair value increased from CA$1.45 to CA$1.50 per LAM share. As this still represents significant upside from current price levels, the firm maintained its BUY rating for Laramide Resources.

“In our view, Laramide represents an attractive investment for exposure to uranium developments in the top-tier mining jurisdictions,” Curran wrote. “Laramide’s assets are in areas of historical uranium mining, thus should have lower barriers to development than other jurisdictions.”

Curran said the firm’s preferred valuation for mining equities uses cash flow-based metrics such as P/CF and P/NAV, utilizing life-of-mine production forecasts and commodity price assumptions.

“However, for earlier-staged explorers where it is arguably too early to create a DCF model with much accuracy, we employ a more basic valuation metric of Adjusted Market Capitalization per total resource (AMC/lb) or Enterprise Value per resource pound (EV/lb),” the analyst wrote. For Laramide, he employed a hybrid model using DCF-based valuation for Churchrock and EV/lb valuation methods for the company’s other U.S. and Australian assets. Curran noted that Beacon currently did not attribute any value to the Kazakhstan assets.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Laramide Resources Ltd. (LAM:TSX; LMRXF:OTCQX: LAM:ASX)

Retail: 70%
Strategic Investors: 19%
Insiders and Management: 11%

*Share Structure as of 2/9/2026

Churchrock is recognized as a development-ready asset, as noted by SCP Equity Research analysts J. Chan, E. Magdzinski, and K. Kormpis in a June 3 research note. The company’s January 2024 PEA forecasts a 31-year operational lifespan, producing 31.2 million pounds at an all-in sustaining cost of US$34.83 per pound using ISR extraction methods.

With uranium valued at US$75 per pound, this results in a US$239 million after-tax NPV, strongly supporting Laramide’s evaluation. The plan involves accelerating wellfield development to increase output to 2-3 million pounds, thereby shortening the operational timeline while improving financial outcomes.

“We think Laramide scans very well on value, with two projects of reasonable size/scale in the U.S. and Australia (arguably two of the top three jurisdictions in today’s geopolitically bifurcating market),” the analysts remarked, giving the stock a Buy rating with a CA$1.35 per share target price.

Ownership and Share Structure1

Laramide reports that insiders and management hold about 11% of the company, with strategic corporate entity Boss Energy Ltd. owning 19%. The remainder is held by retail investors.

Other major shareholders include Alps Advisors with 9.4%, Henderson with 6.82%, Mirae Asset Global Investments LLC with 4.78%, and Vident Investment Advisory LLC with 1.1%. As of February 9, its market capitalization is CA$215.06 million, with 283.62 million shares outstanding. It trades within a 52-week range of CA$0.46 to CA$0.91.


Important Disclosures:

  1. Laramide Resources Ltd. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$3,000 and US$6,000.
  2. Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  3. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

1. Ownership and Share Structure Information

The information listed above was updated on the date this article was published and was compiled from information from the company and various other data providers.

Coffee crops are dying from a fungus with species-jumping genes – researchers are ‘resurrecting’ their genomes to understand how and why

By Lily Peck, University of California, Los Angeles 

For anyone who relies on coffee to start their day, coffee wilt disease may be the most important disease you’ve never heard of. This fungal disease has repeatedly reshaped the global coffee supply over the past century, with consequences that reach from African farms to cafe counters worldwide.

Infection with the fungus Fusarium xylarioides results in a characteristic “wilt” in coffee plants by blocking and reducing the plant’s ability to transport water. This blockage eventually kills the plant.

Some of the most destructive plant pathogens in the world infect their hosts in this way. Since the 1990s, outbreaks of coffee wilt have cost over US$1 billion, forced countless farms to close and caused dramatic drops in national coffee production. In Uganda, one of Africa’s largest producers, coffee production did not recover to pre-outbreak levels until 2020, decades after coffee wilt was first detected there. And in 2023, researchers found evidence that coffee wilt disease had resurfaced across all coffee-producing regions of Ivory Coast.

Studying the genetics of plant pathogens is crucial to understanding why this disease continues to return and how to prevent another major outbreak.

Rise and fall of coffee wilt disease in Africa

While early outbreaks of coffee wilt disease affected a wide range of coffee types, later epidemics primarily affected the two coffee species dominating global markets today: arabica and robusta.

First identified in 1927, coffee wilt disease decimated several varieties of coffee grown in western and central Africa. Although farmers combated the fungus with a shift to supposedly resistant robusta crops in the 1950s, the reprieve was short-lived.

The disease reemerged in the 1970s on robusta coffee, spreading through eastern and central Africa. By the mid-1990s, yields had collapsed and coffee production could not recover in countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Separately, researchers identified the disease on arabica coffee in Ethiopia in the 1950s and watched it become widespread by the 1970s

Two side-by-side maps of Africa with several regions highlighted to indicate coffee wilt disease outbreaks
Coffee wilt disease has spread widely in Africa. The first outbreak before the 1950s affected mainly central and western Africa (left map) while the second outbreak originated in central Africa and spread east (right map). Affected countries are colored by the decade the disease was first detected.
Peck et al 2023/Plant Pathology, CC BY-SA

Although coffee wilt disease is currently endemic at low and manageable levels across eastern and central Africa, any future resurgence of the disease could be catastrophic for African coffee production. Coffee wilt also poses a threat to producers in Asia and the Americas.

New types of disease emerge

Coffee wilt disease evolved alongside coffee itself. Over the past century, it has repeatedly reemerged, attacking different types of coffee each time. But did these shifts reflect the rapid evolution of new types of disease, or something else entirely?

Fungal disease has devastated plants for millennia, with the earliest records of outbreaks dating from the biblical plagues. Like humans, plants have an immune system that protects them against attacks from pathogens like fungi.

While most fungal attempts at infection fail, a small number do succeed thanks to the constant evolutionary pressure on pathogens to overcome host plant defenses. In this evolutionary arms race, pathogens and hosts continuously adapt to each other by genetically changing their DNA. Boom and bust cycles of disease occur as one gains advantage over the other.

The rise of modern agriculture has led to widespread monocultures of genetically uniform crops. While monocultures have significantly boosted food production, they have also contributed to environmental degradation and increased plant vulnerability to disease.

Crop breeders have attempted to protect monocultures by introducing disease resistance genes, with farms widely applying fungicides and other environmentally damaging products. But these relatively weak protections for hundreds of acres of identical plants have resulted in outbreaks decimating crops that people depend on.

It’s likely that modern agriculture’s reliance on monocultures has enabled and accelerated the evolution of new types of pathogen capable of overcoming resistance in plants. As a result, crops become more susceptible to disease outbreaks.

Resurrecting fungal strains

Understanding the lessons of the past is essential to avoiding future plant pandemics. But this can be challenging, because the specific pathogen strains that caused previous disease outbreaks may no longer exist in nature or may have changed substantially.

In my research on the evolutionary arms race between host and pathogen in coffee wilt disease, I sought to address these problems by “resurrecting” historical strains of the fungus that causes the disease, Fusarium xylarioides. Researchers know little about why the earlier and later outbreaks targeted different types of coffee, so I explored the genetic changes in F. xylarioides that underlie this narrowing of its hosts.

I reconstructed historical genetic changes in the major coffee wilt disease outbreaks over the past seven decades by using strains from a fungus library – culture collections that preserve living fungi. These libraries store long-term living data and reflect the fungal genetic diversity present at the time of collection.

Microscopy image of blue fuzzy sphere with long extensions
Gibberella (Fusarium) xylarioides, with arrow pointing to its spore-containing sac.
Julie Flood

Whether a pathogen takes the upper hand in the evolutionary arms race depends on its ability to generate new types of genes. It can do so either by changing and rearranging its DNA sequence or by moving DNA sequences between organisms in a process called horizontal gene transfer. These mechanisms can create new effector genes that enable pathogens to infect and colonize a host plant.

Initially, I sequenced six whole genomes of strains involved in outbreaks before the 1970s as well as later outbreaks that specifically targeted arabica or robusta coffee plants. I found that strains of F. xylarioides specific to arabica or robusta genetically differed from each other, with most of these differences inherited from parent to offspring. This process is called vertical inheritance.

Genes that jump between species

However, I also found that several regions of the F. xylarioides genome were potentially acquired horizontally from F. oxysporum, a global plant pathogen that infects over 120 crops, including bananas and tomatoes. These included different regions of the genome across strains specific to arabica and robusta coffee.

But did these changes introduce new effector genes in the F. xylarioides strains that infect arabica and robusta coffee plants specifically? To answer this question, I first sequenced and assembled the first F. xylarioides reference genome, stitching together long stretches of DNA. I then sequenced and compared this reference genome to the whole genomes of three more pre-1970s F. xylarioides strains and 10 additional historical Fusarium strains found on or around diseased coffee bushes, as well as F. xylarioides strains from infected arabica coffee seedlings.

I found substantial evidence for horizontal transfer of disease-causing genes between species of Fusarium. This includes the presence of giant genetic components called Starships in Fusarium. These so-called jumping genes carry their own molecular machinery, allowing them to move around or between genomes. Genes involved in adaptation, such as those linked to virulence, metabolism or host interaction, also move with them. Scientists think Starships may potentially enable fungi to adapt to changing environmental conditions.

I found that large and highly similar genetic regions, including Starships and active effector genes involved in disease, had moved from F. oxysporum to F. xylarioides. Importantly, different genetic regions were present across strains of F. xylarioides specific to arabica and robusta, but they were absent from other related Fusarium species. This suggests that these genes were gained from F. oxysporum.

Arming farmers with knowledge

Today, a third of all global crop yields are lost to pest and disease. Reconciling the tension between agricultural productivity and environmental protection is important to balance humanity’s needs for the future. Central to this challenge is reducing the spread of disease and new outbreaks.

On the flip side to monocultures, many plant species surrounding and within small and family-run coffee farms in sub-Saharan Africa may act as disease reservoirs, where fungi pathogens can lurk. These include banana trees and Solanum weeds in the tomato family that are susceptible to fungal infection.

Human farming practices may have inadvertently created an artificial niche for these fungi, with coffee bushes brought into widespread contact with banana plants and Solanum weeds. If fungi in the same genus can frequently exchange genetic material, it could accelerate the ability of plant pathogens to adapt to new hosts.

Testing noncoffee plants for F. xylarioides infection could reveal alternative plant species where different Fusarium fungi come into contact and exchange genetic material. This matters because across sub-Saharan Africa, coffee plants often share fields with banana trees and weeds. If these neighboring plants can harbor fungi that act as new sources of genetic variation, they may help fuel new disease strains.

Identifying the plants that can act as hosts to fungi could give farmers practical options to reduce coffee plants’ risk of disease, from targeted weed management to avoiding the planting of vulnerable crops side by side.The Conversation

About the Author:

Lily Peck, Postdoctoral Scholar in Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.