By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Heating Oil & Brent Oil
The COT energy market speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the energy markets was Heating Oil (6,479 contracts) with Brent Oil (6,278 contracts), Gasoline (1,964 contracts) and Natural Gas (1,170 contracts) also having positive weeks.
The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-7,044 contracts) and the Bloomberg Index (-288 contracts) which saw lower bets on the week.
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Natural Gas led Energy Price Performance
Energy market performance this week was led by Natural Gas, which saw a 2.94% gain on the week. Despite that, Natural Gas is down by -6.64% over the last 30 days and is lower by -22.14% over the last 90 days.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index was the next highest mover with a 0.64% gain on the week. Heating Oil also saw a tiny gain this week with a 0.04% increase. Heating Oil has been up by 13.75% over the last 90 days.
On the downside, Gasoline fell by -0.58% this week. Gasoline has been higher by 3.44% over the last 30 days and up by 7.92% over the last 90 days. Brent Oil fell by -2.92% over the last five days. Brent Oil has been higher by almost 8% over the last 90 days.
And finally, WTI Crude Oil was down by -3.47% this week, but has been up by 7.19% over the last 90 days.
Energy Data:
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Natural Gas
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Heating Oil (83 percent) and Natural Gas (60 percent) lead the energy markets this week.
On the downside, WTI Crude (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (2.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (40.3 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (31.4 percent)
Natural Gas (60.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (59.1 percent)
Gasoline (41.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (38.5 percent)
Heating Oil (83.3 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (74.8 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (47.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (48.3 percent)
Heating Oil & Gasoline top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Heating Oil (12 percent) and Gasoline (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.
WTI Crude Oil (-21 percent), Natural Gas (-19 percent) and Brent Oil (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.
Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-20.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-21.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-16.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-38.6 percent)
Natural Gas (-19.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-23.0 percent)
Gasoline (9.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-6.9 percent)
Heating Oil (11.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (3.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-8.2 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-6.4 percent)
Individual COT Market Charts:
WTI Crude Oil Futures:
WTI Crude vs Oil ETF
The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 102,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,044 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 109,472 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.7 | 41.2 | 3.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.6 | 47.3 | 2.5 |
| – Net Position: | 102,428 | -121,395 | 18,967 |
| – Gross Longs: | 293,055 | 819,102 | 67,712 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 190,627 | 940,497 | 48,745 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 40.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -20.6 | 23.2 | -19.8 |
Brent Crude Oil Futures:
Brent vs Oil ETF
The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -28,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,278 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,920 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.0 | 45.6 | 3.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 33.1 | 31.6 | 3.2 |
| – Net Position: | -28,642 | 28,295 | 347 |
| – Gross Longs: | 38,506 | 92,395 | 6,853 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 67,148 | 64,100 | 6,506 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 40.3 | 62.5 | 39.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -16.8 | 18.6 | -4.4 |
Natural Gas Futures:
Natural Gas vs ETF
The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -102,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,170 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,946 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| Natural Gas Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.4 | 30.9 | 3.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 23.7 | 25.4 | 2.5 |
| – Net Position: | -102,776 | 89,212 | 13,564 |
| – Gross Longs: | 284,272 | 504,792 | 55,175 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 387,048 | 415,580 | 41,611 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 60.0 | 43.1 | 37.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -19.3 | 23.5 | -13.1 |
Gasoline Blendstock Futures:
Gasoline vs ETF
The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 41,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,964 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,342 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.1 | 49.1 | 7.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.2 | 64.4 | 5.1 |
| – Net Position: | 41,306 | -48,980 | 7,674 |
| – Gross Longs: | 83,524 | 157,003 | 24,129 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 42,218 | 205,983 | 16,455 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.0 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 41.2 | 56.3 | 66.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 9.2 | -10.7 | 13.9 |
#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:
Heating Oil vs ETF
The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,767 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Heating Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.7 | 40.9 | 14.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.4 | 55.5 | 7.6 |
| – Net Position: | 30,246 | -53,510 | 23,264 |
| – Gross Longs: | 64,603 | 149,076 | 51,122 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 34,357 | 202,586 | 27,858 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.9 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 83.3 | 15.6 | 84.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 11.6 | -5.6 | -8.3 |
Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:
Bloomberg Commodity Index vs ETF
The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -13,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,969 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 13.6 | 81.7 | 0.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.3 | 75.1 | 0.1 |
| – Net Position: | -13,257 | 12,966 | 291 |
| – Gross Longs: | 26,750 | 160,982 | 406 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 40,007 | 148,016 | 115 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 3.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 47.0 | 52.7 | 64.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -8.2 | 8.1 | 0.5 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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