Currency Speculators trim US Dollar Index bets to lowest level in 93-weeks

April 23, 2023

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.


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Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (10,346 contracts) with the British Pound (3,700 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,014 contracts), the EuroFX (1,023 contracts), Brazilian Real (651 contracts), Bitcoin (633 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (577 contracts) and the Japanese Yen (338 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-4,306 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (-4,419 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-2,751 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Speculators reduce US Dollar Index bets to lowest level in 93-weeks

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the increased bearishness of the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index.

Large speculative US Dollar Index positions fell this week for a second consecutive week and for the third time in the past four weeks. Speculators have now subtracted a total of -3,631 net contracts from the overall position over the last four weeks. This bearishness has pushed the US Dollar Index speculator net position (currently at +10,513 contracts) to the lowest level of the past 93 weeks, dating back to July 6th of 2021.

Overall, the US Dollar speculator position has been in bullish territory dating back to June 29th of 2021 with the most bullish point of the cycle taking place on June 21st of 2022 with a high of +45,010 contracts. Since then, speculator positions have slowly eroded and have now been under the +20,000 net contract level for the past 18 weeks in a row.

The US Dollar Index futures price has been on the defensive as well with this week being the first weekly advance over the past eight weeks. The front-month futures price closed this week around 101.50 and is down around 4 percent since February while also being down over 10 percent since October.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Apr-18-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index34,8653410,51342-11,955571,44232
EUR766,37480164,36182-213,2851848,92457
GBP224,536521,30270-7,995296,69371
JPY177,50733-56,8693461,64566-4,77644
CHF40,87038-4,720423,386511,33462
CAD148,63829-46,2331142,194854,03932
AUD159,70857-42,3564650,55757-8,20132
NZD33,37716-3,904433,7175518754
MXN267,6986156,17191-60,884104,71385
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL51,8834213,59653-14,778461,18253
Bitcoin15,38576-48968-176066528

 


Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (91 percent) and the EuroFX (82 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (70 percent), Bitcoin (68 percent) and the Brazilian Real (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (11 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (42.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (47.1 percent)
EuroFX (81.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (81.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (70.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (67.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (42.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (36.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (11.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (1.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (45.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (49.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (43.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (41.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (91.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (94.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.3 percent)
Bitcoin (68.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (57.4 percent)

 

Mexican Peso & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (66 percent) and the British Pound (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (11 percent), the EuroFX (6 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-21 percent), Australian Dollar (-16 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-3.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.3 percent)
EuroFX (6.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-4.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-15.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-16.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-12.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-25.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-31.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (66.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (72.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-21.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-24.0 percent)
Bitcoin (-9.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-9.1 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,264 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:72.39.714.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.144.010.0
– Net Position:10,513-11,9551,442
– Gross Longs:25,1923,3714,940
– Gross Shorts:14,67915,3263,498
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.2 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.556.832.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.45.8-17.9

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 164,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,023 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,338 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.654.511.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.282.35.4
– Net Position:164,361-213,28548,924
– Gross Longs:242,369417,58690,436
– Gross Shorts:78,008630,87141,512
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.7 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.718.457.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.1-3.6-8.4

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,398 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.056.913.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.460.410.7
– Net Position:1,302-7,9956,693
– Gross Longs:53,834127,73130,745
– Gross Shorts:52,532135,72624,052
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.128.771.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.1-28.545.5

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -56,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.874.815.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.940.118.0
– Net Position:-56,86961,645-4,776
– Gross Longs:15,661132,74727,108
– Gross Shorts:72,53071,10231,884
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.965.743.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.4-13.619.3

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.144.437.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.636.133.9
– Net Position:-4,7203,3861,334
– Gross Longs:5,34718,13815,185
– Gross Shorts:10,06714,75213,851
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.150.662.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.0-18.941.4

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -46,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.064.921.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.136.519.2
– Net Position:-46,23342,1944,039
– Gross Longs:17,80696,42132,592
– Gross Shorts:64,03954,22728,553
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.484.931.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.91.931.8

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,937 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.955.512.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.523.818.0
– Net Position:-42,35650,557-8,201
– Gross Longs:44,61088,62820,500
– Gross Shorts:86,96638,07128,701
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.656.632.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.310.97.3

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.655.311.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.344.210.7
– Net Position:-3,9043,717187
– Gross Longs:10,87618,4743,757
– Gross Shorts:14,78014,7573,570
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.055.353.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.817.723.3

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 56,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.045.02.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.067.71.0
– Net Position:56,171-60,8844,713
– Gross Longs:139,289120,3717,352
– Gross Shorts:83,118181,2552,639
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.7 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.19.885.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:66.2-61.5-8.5

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 13,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,945 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:73.218.18.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.046.56.4
– Net Position:13,596-14,7781,182
– Gross Longs:37,9919,3654,527
– Gross Shorts:24,39524,1433,345
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.4 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.146.553.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.022.7-15.4

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:75.63.48.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:78.84.54.6
– Net Position:-489-176665
– Gross Longs:11,6295171,368
– Gross Shorts:12,118693703
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.7 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.451.228.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.2-1.112.6

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.