01 Apr

Gold Speculator’s bullish bets continued to climb to 44-week high

April 1, 2023

By InvestMacro

The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has released the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data, which provides an update view of how large traders, such as speculators and commercial entities, position themselves in the futures markets. This data is current as of Tuesday March 28th.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (23,025 contracts) with Copper (10,806 contracts), Silver (9,899 contracts), Platinum (848 contracts) and Palladium (254 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

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The only market with declines in speculator bets for the week was Steel (-484 contracts).

Gold Speculator bets continue to climb to 44-week high

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued bullishness for the Gold speculative positions. The large speculator position in Gold futures climbed this week for a third straight week and for the fifth time out of the past six weeks. Gold spec bets have now advanced by a total of +83,156 contracts over just the past three weeks.

The Gold position has increased from a total net position of +105,529 contracts on February 14th to a total of +181,630 contracts this week which marks the highest level in 44-weeks, dating back to May of 2022. The boost in speculator sentiment has pushed the Gold speculator strength score to 57.0 percent (0 to 100 percent over a 3-year range) while the 6-week speculator strength score trend has gained by 33.5 percent.

The Gold futures price saw a small gain this week after a small decline last week. Previously to the past two weeks, Gold futures had risen for three straight weeks and hit the highest price in just about a year over the $2,014.00 level. This week Gold futures managed to reach a high back over the $2,000.00 price level but retreated to close at $1,986.20.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Mar-28-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold478,61126181,63057-201,5084619,87830
Silver117,395013,36137-21,875678,51414
Copper211,88952-1,54527-4,924696,46959
Palladium11,51478-6,76437,19398-42916
Platinum57,2443210,37440-14,781634,40727

 

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (58 percent) and Gold (57 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Platinum (39.5 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (3.1 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (57.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (46.9 percent)
Silver (37.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (23.2 percent)
Copper (27.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (17.4 percent)
Platinum (39.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (37.6 percent)
Palladium (3.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.7 percent)
Steel (57.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (59.3 percent)

Gold & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (34 percent) and Platinum (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-4 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (33.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (13.1 percent)
Silver (2.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.4 percent)
Copper (3.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-13.3 percent)
Platinum (10.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-2.5 percent)
Palladium (-16.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-26.9 percent)
Steel (-3.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 181,630 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 23,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 158,605 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.227.59.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.369.65.7
– Net Position:181,630-201,50819,878
– Gross Longs:245,135131,78647,388
– Gross Shorts:63,505333,29427,510
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.4 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.046.129.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.5-28.0-9.2

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,899 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,462 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.038.318.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.656.911.5
– Net Position:13,361-21,8758,514
– Gross Longs:42,25444,97022,062
– Gross Shorts:28,89366,84513,548
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.367.413.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.64.8-32.5

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,351 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.744.38.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.446.65.7
– Net Position:-1,545-4,9246,469
– Gross Longs:56,59593,92018,451
– Gross Shorts:58,14098,84411,982
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.069.259.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.5-2.2-8.5

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 10,374 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 848 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,526 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.440.412.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.266.34.9
– Net Position:10,374-14,7814,407
– Gross Longs:24,24723,1467,193
– Gross Shorts:13,87337,9272,786
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.6 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.562.927.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.1-5.2-24.7

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,764 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,018 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.872.210.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:72.69.713.9
– Net Position:-6,7647,193-429
– Gross Longs:1,5938,3141,174
– Gross Shorts:8,3571,1211,603
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 17.4 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.198.115.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.416.3-9.6

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,771 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.176.11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.559.80.3
– Net Position:-5,2554,933322
– Gross Longs:3,68723,103422
– Gross Shorts:8,94218,170100
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.3 to 14.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.941.461.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.84.1-11.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


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