COT Week 24 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Heating Oil & WTI Crude

June 18, 2022

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Heating Oil (3,589 contracts) and then Gasoline (968 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (72 contracts) also showing a positive week.

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Meanwhile, on the downside, the markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-25,310 contracts) and Natural Gas (-9,143 contracts) while Brent Crude Oil (-291 contracts) also registered lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index has the highest strength score with a 75.7 strength score followed by Heating Oil and Brent Crude Oil. WTI Crude Oil (currently at the lowest level of past three years or 0 percent) and Gasoline (2.2 percent) currently are in bearish-extreme levels with speculator sentiment very weak.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Heating Oil and the Bloomberg Commodity Index have had rising scores over the past six weeks while all the other energy markets have had declining moves.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-14-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,715,674	0	302,946	0	-341,654	100	38,708	70
Gold	497,456	13	154,598	0	-178,569	100	23,971	15
Silver	151,978	18	14,005	0	-22,047	100	8,042	0
Copper	187,247	17	-13,797	32	10,287	67	3,510	46
Palladium	7,740	6	-4,057	0	4,354	100	-297	27
Platinum	66,613	33	2,214	7	-6,793	96	4,579	26
Natural Gas	1,053,265	0	-123,485	42	74,310	54	49,175	96
Brent	171,026	17	-36,389	50	34,601	51	1,788	33
Heating Oil	268,199	23	8,475	55	-28,686	41	20,211	68
Soybeans	754,428	34	182,667	70	-155,663	37	-27,004	25
Corn	1,521,565	25	399,775	81	-344,196	23	-55,579	11
Coffee	202,656	0	46,885	79	-48,399	25	1,514	5
Sugar	800,806	1	170,483	72	-198,006	31	27,523	42
Wheat	336,890	13	20,435	46	-18,089	34	-2,346	98

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 302,946 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -25,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 328,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	35.3	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.2	55.2	3.0
– Net Position:	302,946	-341,654	38,708
– Gross Longs:	409,427	604,944	90,476
– Gross Shorts:	106,481	946,598	51,768
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	9.2	-8.2

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -36,389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,098 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	52.0	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	31.8	3.3
– Net Position:	-36,389	34,601	1,788
– Gross Longs:	23,246	88,924	7,365
– Gross Shorts:	59,635	54,323	5,577
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	50.8	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	14.3	6.5

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -123,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -114,342 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	38.9	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	31.8	2.4
– Net Position:	-123,485	74,310	49,175
– Gross Longs:	220,256	409,613	74,311
– Gross Shorts:	343,741	335,303	25,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.5	54.3	96.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	0.5	10.2

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,488 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	53.2	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	67.4	4.2
– Net Position:	31,456	-43,672	12,216
– Gross Longs:	76,744	164,469	25,175
– Gross Shorts:	45,288	208,141	12,959
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.2	93.4	94.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	5.3	10.7

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,886 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.1	50.5	16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	61.2	9.2
– Net Position:	8,475	-28,686	20,211
– Gross Longs:	45,945	135,386	45,006
– Gross Shorts:	37,470	164,072	24,795
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	40.7	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.5	-15.6	-6.8

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 72 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,383 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	51.7	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.5	42.8	0.1
– Net Position:	-8,311	7,764	547
– Gross Longs:	25,428	45,267	619
– Gross Shorts:	33,739	37,503	72
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	8.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.7	23.2	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-18.9	-5.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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