COT Week 24 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Heating Oil & WTI Crude

June 18, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Heating Oil (3,589 contracts) and then Gasoline (968 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (72 contracts) also showing a positive week.

Meanwhile, on the downside, the markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-25,310 contracts) and Natural Gas (-9,143 contracts) while Brent Crude Oil (-291 contracts) also registered lower bets on the week.


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Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index has the highest strength score with a 75.7 strength score followed by Heating Oil and Brent Crude Oil. WTI Crude Oil (currently at the lowest level of past three years or 0 percent) and Gasoline (2.2 percent) currently are in bearish-extreme levels with speculator sentiment very weak.

energy-moves-specs

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Heating Oil and the Bloomberg Commodity Index have had rising scores over the past six weeks while all the other energy markets have had declining moves.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-14-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,715,674 0 302,946 0 -341,654 100 38,708 70
Gold 497,456 13 154,598 0 -178,569 100 23,971 15
Silver 151,978 18 14,005 0 -22,047 100 8,042 0
Copper 187,247 17 -13,797 32 10,287 67 3,510 46
Palladium 7,740 6 -4,057 0 4,354 100 -297 27
Platinum 66,613 33 2,214 7 -6,793 96 4,579 26
Natural Gas 1,053,265 0 -123,485 42 74,310 54 49,175 96
Brent 171,026 17 -36,389 50 34,601 51 1,788 33
Heating Oil 268,199 23 8,475 55 -28,686 41 20,211 68
Soybeans 754,428 34 182,667 70 -155,663 37 -27,004 25
Corn 1,521,565 25 399,775 81 -344,196 23 -55,579 11
Coffee 202,656 0 46,885 79 -48,399 25 1,514 5
Sugar 800,806 1 170,483 72 -198,006 31 27,523 42
Wheat 336,890 13 20,435 46 -18,089 34 -2,346 98

 


WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 302,946 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -25,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 328,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.9 35.3 5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.2 55.2 3.0
– Net Position: 302,946 -341,654 38,708
– Gross Longs: 409,427 604,944 90,476
– Gross Shorts: 106,481 946,598 51,768
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.5 9.2 -8.2

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -36,389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,098 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.6 52.0 4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.9 31.8 3.3
– Net Position: -36,389 34,601 1,788
– Gross Longs: 23,246 88,924 7,365
– Gross Shorts: 59,635 54,323 5,577
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.1 50.8 33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.2 14.3 6.5

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -123,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -114,342 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.9 38.9 7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.6 31.8 2.4
– Net Position: -123,485 74,310 49,175
– Gross Longs: 220,256 409,613 74,311
– Gross Shorts: 343,741 335,303 25,136
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.5 54.3 96.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.7 0.5 10.2

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,488 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.8 53.2 8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 67.4 4.2
– Net Position: 31,456 -43,672 12,216
– Gross Longs: 76,744 164,469 25,175
– Gross Shorts: 45,288 208,141 12,959
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.2 93.4 94.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.0 5.3 10.7

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,886 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.1 50.5 16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.0 61.2 9.2
– Net Position: 8,475 -28,686 20,211
– Gross Longs: 45,945 135,386 45,006
– Gross Shorts: 37,470 164,072 24,795
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.9 40.7 68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.5 -15.6 -6.8

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 72 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,383 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.0 51.7 0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.5 42.8 0.1
– Net Position: -8,311 7,764 547
– Gross Longs: 25,428 45,267 619
– Gross Shorts: 33,739 37,503 72
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 8.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 75.7 23.2 38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.3 -18.9 -5.0

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.