07 Mar

Speculator Extremes: AUD, CAD, Steel, Natural Gas, Cocoa & Sugar lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

March 7, 2026

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on March 3rd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Extreme Bullish Speculator Table

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Australian Dollar

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week with the AUD speculator level maintaining a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

Free Reports:

Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.





Download Our Metatrader 4 Indicators – Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter




The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise by 47 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 67,762 net contracts this week with a boost by 15,118 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

 

Canadian Dollar

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in second for the extreme standings this week. The CAD speculator level is now at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a rise by 28 percentage points this week while the speculator position registered 21,050 net contracts this week with a weekly change of -6,528 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings as the Steel speculator level resides at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a dip by -2 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 11,298 net contracts this week with a decline of -526 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Palladium speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a decrease by -5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 161 net contracts this week with a dip of -503 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybeans

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Soybeans speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Soybeans speculator level sits at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost by 36 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 221,902 net contracts this week with an increase of 11,630 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Extreme Bearish Speculator Table

Natural Gas

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Natural Gas speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week with he Natural Gas speculator level sitting at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -8 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -206,422 net contracts this week with a change of -7,903 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cocoa speculator level is at just a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed no change this week while the speculator position was -17,830 net contracts this week with a change of -4,550 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Sugar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week as the Sugar speculator level resides at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -13 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -245,034 net contracts this week with a small gain of 1,089 contracts in the speculator bets.

British Pound

Extreme Bearish Leader
The British Pound speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The GBP speculator level is at a 9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -22 percentage points this week and the speculator position was a total of -72,686 net contracts with a drop of -15,614 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

Extreme Bearish Leader
Next, the 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week with the 2-Year speculator level sitting at just a 14 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction by -11 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -1,338,541 net contracts this week with a small gain of 9,495 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


investmacro cot newsletter




COT Updates Opinions