Investors are entering 2026 with a cautious stance.

The US equities concluded the final trading day of 2025 with declines as risks were trimmed and expectations for Fed policy were reassessed. At the close of Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by -0.63%, the S&P 500 (US500) dropped by -0.74%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed -0.76% lower. Despite the weak finish, the year proved strong: the S&P 500 gained approximately +16.6%, the Nasdaq +20.4%, and the Dow +13.2%. AI-related companies remained the primary driver, while the broader market balanced geopolitical risks, tariff uncertainty, high valuations, and shifting rate expectations. Disagreements within the Fed regarding the pace of easing in 2026 and sharp volatility in the precious metals market in late December amplified the cautious investor sentiment at the start of the new year.

The Canadian dollar weakened above the 1.37 level per U.S. dollar, retreating from its highest point since July amid deteriorating domestic macroeconomic signals and year-end strength in the greenback. Statistics Canada recorded a -0.3% contraction in real GDP for October, confirming an economic slowdown in the fourth quarter and weakening the case for a tighter policy stance compared to the U.S. Additional pressure came from falling oil prices, which reduced export revenues, as well as a widening yield spread: Canada’s 10-year bond yield dipped toward 3%, while the US 10-year yield holds near 4%.

On the final trading day of 2025, European equities held near all-time highs, closing the year with their best performance since 2021. The German DAX (DE40) was not traded on Wednesday, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down -0.23%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell -0.27%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished Wednesday down -0.09%. Growth was supported by relatively resilient macroeconomic dynamics and expectations for expanded fiscal spending in the region; key contributions came from the banking sector, which posted its best results since the late 1990s, and basic resource companies following the rally in precious metals.

On Wednesday, silver plummeted by more than -5% to $72 per ounce, correcting from a record high of $86.62 reached earlier in the week due to year-end profit-taking. The correction is technical in nature following a meteoric rally: in 2025, the metal appreciated by more than 150%, significantly outperforming gold and making it the strongest year in silver’s history. Looking ahead, analysts expect continued interest from both retail and institutional investors, especially given the likelihood of further Fed easing in 2026, which may limit the depth of corrections after such powerful growth.

The US crude oil (WTI) inventories for the week ending December 26 decreased by 1.93 million barrels, the largest weekly decline since mid-November and notably exceeding market expectations. Nevertheless, total commercial inventories remain high at year-end, approximately 423 million barrels, which is significantly above historical norms and points to a persistent global supply surplus despite geopolitical constraints, including the blockade of Venezuelan supplies and sanctions against Russian producers.

The US natural gas prices declined toward approximately $3.70 per MMBtu, a minimum since late October, amid forecasts of warmer weather and weakening short-term heating demand. The expected reduction in heating degree days and downward revisions to consumption forecasts suggest lower demand in the coming weeks, while prospects for production growth add pressure to prices. However, in the broader horizon, the market remains relatively resilient: in 2025, gas prices may rise by about 4% thanks to record LNG exports. In 2026, the market will likely be supported by structural factors, including increased electrification and higher gas usage in power generation, despite the expected further expansion of supply.

Asian markets mostly declined on the final day of 2025. The Japanese Nikkei 225 was not traded, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by -0.59%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) dropped -0.87%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of -0.03% on Wednesday.
President Xi Jinping stated that China’s economy is on track to meet its 5% growth target for 2025. Furthermore, Xi Jinping indicated that in 2026, authorities intend to move toward a more proactive macroeconomic policy to sustain growth rates. The focus will be on innovative development and maintaining stability amid ongoing global uncertainty, signaling Beijing’s readiness to ramp up stimulus measures if necessary.