Investor attention is focused on the commodities market following the situation in Venezuela

The US stocks concluded the first session of the year with gains following volatile trading. At the close of Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.66% (-0.68% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.19% (-1.12% for the week). The technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.17% (-1.89% for the week). The market was supported by a sharp rise in chipmakers following positive corporate news: Nvidia shares rose 2%, Micron gained 10%, and Intel added 7%. Additional drivers included news of the planned IPO of Baidu’s chip division in Hong Kong and rating upgrades for ASML by several asset managers. At the same time, shares of major AI software developers came under pressure: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Palantir declined by 2–5%, reflecting concerns over the return on investment in AI. Tesla lost 2.5% after failing to meet its delivery targets for the fourth quarter.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.20% (+1.02% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed with an increase of 0.56% (+1.06% for the week), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.07% (+2.02% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.20% (+0.63% for the week).

On Monday, silver appreciated by nearly 4%, rising to around $76 per ounce and continuing the growth of the previous session. The increase in quotes followed the US strikes on Venezuela and the arrest of President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend, which sharply heightened geopolitical risks and triggered a surge in demand for safe-haven assets. President Donald Trump stated on Saturday that the US would “manage” Venezuela until a proper political transition occurs.
WTI crude oil prices dropped below $57 per barrel as investors assessed the consequences of the US strike on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro. Market attention is centered on the potential impact of these events on regional oil supplies, given that Venezuela possesses the world’s largest proven hydrocarbon reserves. At the same time, a number of analysts believe that short-term disruptions will be limited, as Venezuela’s current production is less than 1 million barrels per day – less than 1% of global production.

The US natural gas prices declined by more than 3%, falling to around $3.48 per MMBtu and hitting new lows since late October. Pressure on quotes was exerted by weather prognoses indicating abnormally warm weather in the coming weeks.

Asian markets traded mixed last week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.27%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 0.94%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) gained 2.17%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.64% over the 5-day period.
The New Zealand dollar weakened to the $0.576 area, remaining near a two-week low amid a reassessment of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy outlook. The regulator signaled that the easing cycle, in which rates were cut by a total of 225 bps, has likely concluded, while simultaneously cooling expectations for an imminent policy tightening. Comments from RBNZ Governor Anne Breman reinforced this signal, indicating that in the absence of unexpected economic shocks, rates could remain unchanged for an extended period.

On Monday, the Australian dollar fell below the $0.668 level, continuing the decline that began last week amid deteriorating global sentiment due to renewed geopolitical tensions. The currency, sensitive to commodity market dynamics and widely used as an indicator of global risk appetite, came under pressure following the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

The offshore yuan weakened slightly below the 6.98 mark per dollar but remained near its highest levels since May 2023 as investors analyzed fresh PMI data for signals on the state of China’s economy. A private survey showed that the composite PMI remained in the growth zone for the seventh consecutive month, although the expansion rate in the services sector slowed to a six-month low. Meanwhile, official statistics published earlier indicated an improvement in the overall picture: the composite PMI rose to a six-month high, manufacturing activity unexpectedly returned to growth, and the services index reached a four-month peak.