RBNZ unexpectedly cuts the rate by 0.5%. Natural gas prices jump amid drop in daily production

The Dow Jones (US30) Index ended Tuesday down by 0.20%. The S&P 500 (US500) dropped 0.38%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.67%. The prolonged government shutdown continues to cloud the economic outlook, delaying the release of key data and putting pressure on policymakers to reach an agreement. Indices were also weighed down by a sharp sell-off in Oracle shares following weaker-than-expected reports on cloud segment margins. Tesla fell by 4.4% after presenting a lower-cost Model Y, Ford plunged 7.6% due to a supplier’s fire, and gold futures jumped above $4,000 per ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets. In the absence of new economic data, investors relied on secondary indicators and Federal Reserve statements, which pointed to a potential rate reduction amid the uncertainty.

The US consumer inflation expectations for the coming year rose to 3.4% in September 2025, the highest reading in five months, up from 3.2% in August. Meanwhile, five-year inflation expectations also increased from 2.9% to 3.0%, while three-year expectations remained at 3.0%. Unemployment expectations climbed 2.0 percentage points to 41.1%.

The Ivey Canadian Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surged to 59.8 in September 2025 from 50.1 in August, hitting a 16-month high and beating market expectations of 51.2. The employment level also improved (50.2 vs. 46.0). Canada’s trade deficit widened to C$6.3 billion in August 2025, up from C$3.8 billion the previous month and significantly exceeding market expectations of C$5.6 billion, making it the second-largest trade deficit on record. Exports shrank by 3% month-over-month to C$60.6 billion, the first drop since April, extending a period of volatility that began after the US tariff threat and implementation. In turn, imports grew by 0.9% to C$66.9 billion, driven by a more than 500% surge in purchases of gold, silver, and platinum-group metals, which offset earlier declines this year due to tariff uncertainty.

Equity markets in Europe rose slightly yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) edged up by 0.03%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.04%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) slipped 0.19%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.05%.

The US natural gas prices jumped more than 2.5% on Tuesday to $3.45/MMBtu, nearing the 11-week high of $3.476 reached on October 1st, amid a drop in daily production. Output in the US 48 states averaged 106.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in October, down from September’s 107.4 bcfd and the record high of 108.0 bcfd in August.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) edged up by 0.01%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) and Hang Seng (HK50) did not trade yesterday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative result of 0.27%.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 2.5%, exceeding market expectations for a 25 basis point reduction, bringing the borrowing cost to its lowest level since mid-2022. Policymakers cited persistent spare capacity, subdued domestic activity, and downside risks from cautious household and business behavior that could slow the economic recovery, prompting them to implement a more significant easing. Inflation also remains near the upper bound of the 1-3% target band but is expected to return to the 2% midpoint by mid-2026 as tradable goods pressures ease. The committee remains prepared to ease policy further to anchor inflation near the 2% target.