US Dollar faces pivotal week: politics and economic data in focus

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

EUR/USD opened the week steady, trading near 1.1418, as markets brace for a series of key economic reports and political developments.

Markets eye trade talks and macro indicators

Investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic ahead of the US-China trade meeting, set to take place in London today, following President Donald Trump’s announcement last week. Hopes for progress in trade negotiations are helping stabilise the market mood.

On the economic front, a heavy data calendar lies ahead. Markets are closely watching the release of several US macroeconomic indicators:

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday
• Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday

These reports are expected to provide clearer insights into the effects of tariffs on inflation and the overall direction of the US economy.

Last Friday, the US dollar gained strength following an upbeat employment report for May, which showed stronger-than-expected job growth. However, the broader picture remains mixed, with recent readings on private employment, unemployment claims, and the services PMI pointing to ongoing economic fragility.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has reached the growth wave target at 1.1494. A correction phase is currently unfolding, with the first target at 1.1365. After touching this level, a rebound to 1.1438 is possible. This could be followed by a new downward wave towards 1.1275, with a longer-term prospect of a decline to 1.1210. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero but pointing sharply downwards, indicating a shift towards bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair has completed the first downward wave, reaching a local target at 1.1372. A corrective bounce to 1.1438 (a test from below) is now on the radar. This move will determine whether EUR/USD resumes its upward correction or extends its decline.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is entering a critical week, with US economic data and trade talks in the spotlight. A corrective move to 1.1438 appears likely in the short term, but further downside towards 1.1365, 1.1275, and 1.1210 remains on the table depending on data outcomes and broader risk sentiment. Technical indicators suggest a shift in momentum, with consolidation and correction likely before the next directional move.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.