Trump escalated trade tensions, threatening tariffs against Apple and the EU

The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.61% (for the week -2.21%) on Friday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.67% (for the week -1.70%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed lower by 0.93% (for the week -1.05%). The US stocks declined on Friday after Donald Trump escalated trade tensions by threatening tariffs against Apple and the European Union. Apple shares fell 3%, bringing its value below $3 trillion, after Trump demanded that iPhones sold in the US be made domestically or face a 25% tariff. He also proposed a 50% tariff on all imports from the EU starting June 1 due to stalled trade talks, renewing fears of protectionist policies.

The US stock futures jumped on Monday after President Trump announced on Sunday that he would delay the imposition of 50% tariffs against the EU, extending the deadline to July 9. The move came after a turbulent week for markets, with growing concerns over the US fiscal outlook and trade tensions weighing heavily on investor sentiment.

The Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) strengthened to 1.375 per US dollar, the highest since October 2024, as bets that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will be less accommodative added to the impact of a weaker dollar. Canadian retail sales rose by 0.5% in April, following up on a 0.8% increase in March, signaling strength in Canadian consumers.

The Mexican peso (USD/MXN) rose to 19.3 per US dollar in May 2025, the strongest since last October, as budget concerns and tariff uncertainty in the US weakened the dollar. The dollar declined against major currencies after the US House of Representatives approved a bill that could increase the federal budget deficit by more than $3 trillion and days after Moody’s downgraded their debt rating due to unsustainable debt. On the domestic front, the latest data showed that Mexico’s GDP grew 0.2% in the first quarter. While this avoided a technical recession, it signaled underlying weakness in the Mexican economy and a more urgent need for Banxico to cut interest rates.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly falling on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.54% (week ended -0.32%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.65% (week ended -1.52%), Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) fell by 1.18% (week ended +0.22%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.24% (week ended +0.38%). European stocks fell sharply on Friday after US President Trump said he recommends imposing tariffs of 50% on goods from the European Union, which could deprive demand from a key source of European exports. Shares of Mercedes Benz, BMW, Stellantis, Hermes and Inditex fell between 2% and 4.5%. Meanwhile, the likelihood of retaliatory measures from the European Commission put pressure on banks, with Intesa Sanpaolo, UniCredit, and BBVA down 3% each. On the data side, German Q1 GDP growth was revised upward to 0.4% from 0.2%, helped by strong manufacturing numbers and a surge in exports in March, suggesting the economy is resilient amid trade tensions.

WTI crude prices rose by 0.5% to settle at $61.50 a barrel on Friday, but still recorded their first weekly loss in three weeks, pressured by expectations of another OPEC+ production increase. The group is expected to increase output by 411,000 barrels a day in July, with discussions next week likely to confirm the move. Market sentiment deteriorated further on reports that OPEC+ may roll back the remainder of its voluntary 2.2 million bpd production cut by October.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.10%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.43%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.92%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive 0.21%.

Japan’s Index of leading economic indicators, which gauges the economic outlook for the coming months based on data such as job offers and consumer sentiment, was revised upward to 108.1 for March 2025 from a preliminary estimate of 107.7. However, the latest reading remains slightly below February’s 108.2 and is the lowest since last December due to deteriorating consumer sentiment.

The New Zealand dollar rose to around USD 0.602 on Monday, extending Friday’s 1.5% gain and nearing its highest level in seven months. The rally was largely driven by a broad-based decline in the US dollar, which weakened amid renewed trade tensions and growing concerns about the US fiscal outlook. However, tensions eased slightly when Trump announced on Sunday that he would extend the deadline for tariff talks with the EU until July 9. Domestically, traders are now awaiting Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting, where the Central Bank is expected to cut the cash rate by 25 bps as inflation remains low. Markets currently expect rates to fall to around 3% or 2.75% by the end of the year.