Australia’s inflation rate is at a 3-month low. Oil prices are approaching $70 again

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.01%, the S&P500 Index (US500) gained 0.16%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 0.46%. Stocks extended gains on hopes that the US’s upcoming retaliatory tariffs next week will be narrower than originally planned.

Options traders scaled back expectations for US rate cuts this year. With tariffs expected to weigh on economic growth — and force the Fed to step in to support the economy — any easing of tariffs should ease pressure on the Fed to cut rates over the next year.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.13%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.08% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.21%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.30% yesterday. The latest Confederation of British Industry Distributive Trades survey showed that UK retail sales fell in March, marking the sixth consecutive decline. Ukraine and Russia agreed on a ceasefire in the Black Sea after separate talks with US officials in Saudi Arabia.

WTI crude prices rose above $69 a barrel on Wednesday amid supply concerns and a sharper-than-expected decline in the US crude inventories. On Monday, Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on imports from countries that buy Venezuelan crude, which could disrupt supplies to key refineries, especially in China, India, and Spain. The Trump administration also extended the deadline for Chevron’s exit from Venezuela to May 27. Analysts estimate that the company’s exit could reduce production by 200,000 bpd. Meanwhile, API data showed that US crude inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels last week, beating market expectations for a 2.5 million barrel decline.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.46%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 0.61%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 2.35%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.07%.

Australia’s Consumer Price Index fell to a three-month low of 2.4% in February, defying expectations of no change from January’s 2.5% reading. Meanwhile, the Australian government announced two additional personal income tax cuts, scheduled for 2026 and 2027, totaling A$17.1 billion above forecast. On the monetary policy front, the Reserve Bank of Australia will meet next week, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged.

Japan’s Index of Economic Indicators, which tracks output, employment, and retail sales, came in at 116.1 in January 2025, slightly below the initial forecast of 116.2 but up from a marginally revised 106.0 in the previous month. The figure was the highest since September 2019, helped by a moderate economic recovery amid improving employment and income and broader growth in private consumption.