Drilling down: Key factors that could impact oil prices this week

• Oil prices ↑ almost 2% this week

• Russian/Iran supply concerns overshadow Trump’s tariff

• EIA, OPEC and IEA monthly oil market reports in focus

• Brent: US CPI sparked moves of ↑ 1.9% & ↓ 1.2% over past year

• Technical levels: 200-day SMA, $76.00 and $74.00

Oil benchmarks are up almost 2% this week as tighter Russian crude supply overshadowed fears around Trump’s expanding tariffs.

Data from Russia revealed that production in January slipped below the nation’s OPEC+ quota. This adds to the rising concerns over supply following US sanctions on Iran’s oil exports.

Mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East amid Trump’s involvement could compound supply fears, fuelling oil’s upside gains.

Brent has climbed above $76.00, while WTI crude is trading at $73 as of writing.

Despite the recent rebound, Trump’s tariff drama could create obstacles down the road.

Trump recently imposed 25% tariffs on US steel and aluminium imports, scheduled to take effect on March 12.

He also plans to slap reciprocal tariffs sometime this week that will affect ‘everyone’.

Higher tariffs could threaten global growth, hitting demand for oil and resulting in lower prices. This uncertainty may force OPEC+ to delay increasing production beyond April 2025.

Regarding the week ahead, oil could be rocked by a cocktail of high-risk events.

Three of the most influential oil forecasters – EIA, OPEC and EIA will publish their latest monthly market outlooks. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s 2-day testimony and the latest US CPI could inject oil prices with additional volatility.

Here is what you need to know:

  1) Oil monthly market outlooks

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to publish its monthly oil market on Tuesday afternoon.

On Wednesday, OPEC will publish its latest oil market report and on Thursday the International Energy Agency (IEA) releases its own.

Any fresh insight into the outlook for oil markets and demand forecasts among other themes may move Brent/Crude prices.

  2) Powell’s 2-day testimony & US CPI

As highlighted in our week ahead report, Powell’s testimony and the US CPI data may influence Fed cut bets.

Lower US interest rates could stimulate economic growth, fueling oil demand. Lower rates may also weaken the dollar, boosting oil which is priced in dollars. The same is true vice versa.

Over the past 12 months, the US CPI has triggered upside moves on Brent of as much as 1.9% or declines of 1.2% in a 6-hour window post-release.

  3) Technical forces

Brent has staged a solid rebound from $74 with prices trading above the 50 and 100-day SMA.

• A solid daily close above $76 could encourage a move toward the 200-day SMA at $77.50 and $78.40.

• Should prices slip back below $76, bears may target the 50-day and 100-day SMA before retesting $74.