By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini
The COT stock markets speculator bets were hgher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (51,337 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (13,909 contracts), the VIX (915 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (863 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-11,713 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-5,463 contracts) and with the DowJones-Mini (-13 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & S&P500-Mini
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (69 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (64 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (64 percent) and DowJones-Mini (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the VIX (52 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.
Strength Statistics:
VIX (52.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (51.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (64.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (56.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (63.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (63.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (68.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (86.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (63.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (66.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (61.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (54.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (64.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (46.2 percent)
MSCI EAFE-Mini & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (20 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (9 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
The VIX (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-18 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-28.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-0.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (8.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-2.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-6.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-9.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-12.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-8.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-17.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-14.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (3.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-5.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (20.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (4.1 percent)
Individual Stock Market Charts:
VIX Volatility Futures:
The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 915 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,445 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| VIX Volatility Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.6 | 48.1 | 8.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 34.5 | 33.8 | 8.1 |
| – Net Position: | -48,530 | 46,367 | 2,163 |
| – Gross Longs: | 63,875 | 156,543 | 28,653 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 112,405 | 110,176 | 26,490 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 52.4 | 47.4 | 86.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -28.3 | 21.5 | 24.7 |
S&P500 Mini Futures:
The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 51,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,154 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.8 | 68.7 | 13.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.0 | 74.7 | 6.9 |
| – Net Position: | -4,817 | -123,461 | 128,278 |
| – Gross Longs: | 306,741 | 1,423,400 | 271,788 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 311,558 | 1,546,861 | 143,510 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 64.0 | 17.2 | 88.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.8 | -8.9 | 0.4 |
Dow Jones Mini Futures:
The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,721 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,734 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 16.0 | 63.5 | 18.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.9 | 70.9 | 12.9 |
| – Net Position: | 1,721 | -6,083 | 4,362 |
| – Gross Longs: | 13,205 | 52,409 | 14,969 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 11,484 | 58,492 | 10,607 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 63.1 | 29.4 | 79.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.9 | 7.2 | -4.0 |
Nasdaq Mini Futures:
The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 18,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,691 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.3 | 54.1 | 15.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.9 | 66.0 | 10.7 |
| – Net Position: | 18,978 | -30,811 | 11,833 |
| – Gross Longs: | 75,804 | 140,048 | 39,452 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 56,826 | 170,859 | 27,619 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 68.6 | 20.4 | 77.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -12.8 | 11.4 | -4.6 |
Russell 2000 Mini Futures:
The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -27,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,035 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.5 | 77.6 | 8.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.0 | 74.7 | 5.2 |
| – Net Position: | -27,498 | 12,186 | 15,312 |
| – Gross Longs: | 44,118 | 326,371 | 37,173 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 71,616 | 314,185 | 21,861 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 63.2 | 31.4 | 67.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -17.7 | 20.8 | -22.7 |
Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:
The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,063 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 7.9 | 72.3 | 19.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.8 | 53.2 | 20.0 |
| – Net Position: | -2,200 | 2,229 | -29 |
| – Gross Longs: | 923 | 8,438 | 2,311 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 3,123 | 6,209 | 2,340 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 61.4 | 42.0 | 42.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.4 | 2.7 | -15.1 |
MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:
The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -14,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,909 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,515 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.4 | 86.9 | 2.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.8 | 84.1 | 1.9 |
| – Net Position: | -14,606 | 11,710 | 2,896 |
| – Gross Longs: | 44,985 | 376,345 | 11,105 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 59,591 | 364,635 | 8,209 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 64.2 | 40.3 | 31.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 20.2 | -18.2 | -2.2 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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