Commodity currencies decline following the fall in oil prices. Ukraine and the USA are close to signing a deal on fossil production

The Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.43% on Wednesday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) closed 0.01% higher. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) gained 0.22%. Nvidia shares hovered near zero despite the company reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter sales and earnings and a strong outlook for the current quarter. The chipmaker increased revenue by 78% year-over-year, helped by strong demand for its GPUs in the artificial intelligence sector. Meanwhile, Salesforce plummeted more than 5% after disappointing quarterly results and a weak outlook.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.43 per US dollar, nearing a 22-year low of 1.455 hit on January 31, as renewed threats of tariffs from the US weighed on the demand outlook. The earlier risk of a trade imbalance has already prompted the Bank of Canada to announce a willingness to adjust policy to support domestic growth. In addition, falling crude oil prices, hovering at two-month lows, further weakened the outlook for the loonie, given Canada’s dependence on oil exports.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.71%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.15% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.64%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.72%. On Wednesday, the DAX Index continued the rally that began after the German federal election over the weekend and outperformed its peers. Investors followed a wave of strong corporate earnings and remained optimistic about a potential mining deal between Ukraine and the US. Meanwhile, market participants continued to weigh the outlook for increased defense spending in Europe and lingering concerns over US trade tariffs.

WTI crude oil prices slipped below $69 a barrel on Thursday, to their lowest level since December last year, pressured by prospects for increased supply and a bearish demand outlook. A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine continued to weigh on prices as expectations of an easing of Russian sanctions could boost the global oil supply. The US and Ukraine also reached a draft agreement on minerals, a key step in President Trump’s efforts to end the war as soon as possible. In addition, oil prices have been hurt by concerns that Trump’s tariffs on China and other trading partners could slow economic growth and dampen demand.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) fell below $4.0/MMBtu as prognoses of warmer weather and record production outweighed strong LNG exports and inventory shortages. Milder conditions are expected through March 12, reducing demand for natural gas to heat homes and businesses. In addition, February production remains at record levels, rising to 104.3 Bcf/d by February 25 from 100.5 Bcf/d on February 19.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.25%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.61%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 3.27%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.14%.

The New Zealand dollar fell to US$0.567 on Thursday, hitting its lowest level in a week. The kiwi was weakened by the US dollar’s gains amid uncertainty over US trade policy following President Donald Trump’s vague promises of tariffs on Europe, as well as further postponements of planned duties on Canada and Mexico. Domestically, the currency remains under pressure after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a dovish monetary policy statement.