By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Copper & Silver
The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (24,452 contracts) with Copper (7,568 contracts), Silver (5,132 contracts), Palladium (784 contracts) and Steel (414 contracts) also coming in with positive weeks.
The market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Platinum with a dip by -2,287 contracts over the period.
Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (88 percent) and Gold (86 percent) lead the metals markets this week.
On the downside, Palladium (41 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.
Strength Statistics:
Gold (86.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (77.0 percent)
Silver (74.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (67.9 percent)
Copper (44.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (37.2 percent)
Platinum (52.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (58.2 percent)
Palladium (40.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (35.2 percent)
Steel (88.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (86.4 percent)
Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (7 percent) and Silver (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.
Palladium (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-12 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.
Move Statistics:
Gold (7.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.7 percent)
Silver (3.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (-2.3 percent)
Copper (1.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-5.3 percent)
Platinum (-11.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-1.9 percent)
Palladium (-19.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-25.4 percent)
Steel (-0.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.9 percent)
Individual Markets:
Gold Comex Futures:
The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 279,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 24,452 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 254,911 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 59.4 | 17.5 | 9.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 6.3 | 74.9 | 4.8 |
| – Net Position: | 279,363 | -302,452 | 23,089 |
| – Gross Longs: | 312,568 | 92,075 | 48,250 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 33,205 | 394,527 | 25,161 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 9.4 to 1 | 0.2 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 86.3 | 13.4 | 54.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 7.5 | -5.8 | -12.4 |
Silver Comex Futures:
The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,132 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,948 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 47.6 | 21.5 | 18.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.9 | 61.2 | 8.9 |
| – Net Position: | 46,080 | -59,676 | 13,596 |
| – Gross Longs: | 71,511 | 32,379 | 27,024 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 25,431 | 92,055 | 13,428 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.8 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 74.4 | 28.4 | 36.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.6 | 2.6 | -25.1 |
Copper Grade #1 Futures:
The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 11,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,270 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 40.6 | 36.6 | 7.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 35.0 | 43.5 | 6.1 |
| – Net Position: | 11,838 | -14,543 | 2,705 |
| – Gross Longs: | 84,904 | 76,426 | 15,377 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 73,066 | 90,969 | 12,672 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 44.3 | 57.9 | 34.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 1.3 | 0.2 | -9.8 |
Platinum Futures:
The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 15,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,287 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,847 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 62.8 | 20.7 | 12.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 42.0 | 47.8 | 5.9 |
| – Net Position: | 15,560 | -20,344 | 4,784 |
| – Gross Longs: | 47,098 | 15,507 | 9,246 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 31,538 | 35,851 | 4,462 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 52.8 | 47.3 | 37.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -11.6 | 18.8 | -54.0 |
Palladium Futures:
The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,330 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,114 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 38.6 | 44.8 | 11.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 79.6 | 7.9 | 7.2 |
| – Net Position: | -8,330 | 7,506 | 824 |
| – Gross Longs: | 7,855 | 9,114 | 2,279 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 16,185 | 1,608 | 1,455 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 5.7 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 40.9 | 57.5 | 73.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -19.7 | 19.0 | 1.1 |
Steel Futures Futures:
The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,597 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.0 | 68.0 | 1.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 34.0 | 60.3 | 0.7 |
| – Net Position: | -2,183 | 2,120 | 63 |
| – Gross Longs: | 7,148 | 18,659 | 263 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 9,331 | 16,539 | 200 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 88.0 | 12.7 | 39.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -0.7 | 0.7 | -0.8 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
